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EARTHQUAKE POTENTIALOF THE ST. LOUIS DISTRICT
0
MAIN REPORTAND APPENDICE3
'' C-,, LT rzMI TO Dl ' .% ; ' "
*I7! FCAST XMILBR 07 1'i5 G IJ
US Army Corpsci.. of Engineers
St. Louis District
FE 'RUA ,Y 1981
81 5 04 17
UNCLASSIFIED LSECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGE (Mhen Data Entered) ,_ _ _ _
, "'READ INSTRUCTIONS'___REPORT_________________PAGE BEFORE COMPLETING FORM
1. REPORT NU 2. GOVT ACCESSION NO. 3. RECIPIENT'S CATALOWNUMBER
- OF REOT 'rERaIO*COVERED-
j..ARTHQUAKE POTENT'IAL, OcTHE, STq,-,LOUIS DITEo---
Main Rpenqie Final AvIt i
7. AUTHORW Gregory, L. mempen/ Michael,,J,. Klosterman CONTRACTOR GRANT NUMBER(&)
Rockaw jGe rald 7 uti:s7p-~ 1!RGAZEJ. RJCTS
ssouri -, 0 a" I Jai•il .. ... . . " '- AREA'& WORK.UNI.TLNUMBERS '9 . PERFORMING ORG/,4"IZAT1ON NAME AND ADDRESS . 10. PROGRAM ELEMENT. PROJECT, TASK
U. S. Army Engineer District, St. Louis
!Foundation & Materials Branch210 Tucker Blvd., North, St. Louis. MO 63101
It. CONTROLLING OFFICE NAME AND ADDRESS 12 EPORT DATE
U. S. Army Engineer District, St. Louis Wi/1 Febi 18Foundation & Materials Branch e." RUW-ER OF PAG;7 -
210 Tucker Blvd., North, St. Louis, MO 63ioi mfl414. MONITORING AGENCY NAME & ADDRESS(IS different from Controlling Office) 15. SECURITY CLASS. (of this report)
~' I t/J ~5s. DRECLASSIWIR DOWNGRADINGSCHEDULE
IS. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT (of this Report)
Approved for release; distribution unlimited.
17. DISTRIBUTIO'. STATEMENT (of the abstract entered In Block 20, If different from Report)
1S. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES
9I. KEY WORDS (Continue on reverse side if necessary and Identify by block nuwaber)
Geology Design earthquakeSeismology Earthquake recurrenceTectonicsSeismotectonic zonation
,a AINSTRACT' CCantfaus reverse eL* it n.essary sad Idenifyr by block number)
An aralysis of geological factors was used in conjunction with a mathelaticalappraisal of seismological data to assess the earthquake potential within aportion of the central United States. These two approaches complemented cachother since they used diverse sources to obtain their facts and premises.Earthquake potential was assessed using the concept of seismotectonic zonesbecause of the difficulty in determining active faults in the central UnitedStates. Eight zones were resolved based on an analysis of geologic and
ID M17 EuTInon OF I NOV6SS IS OBSOLETE UCASFE4J-i -A SEUR UNCLASSIFIEDSECRIT CLSIICTO OF, THSPAE DaaEn
UNCLASSIFIEDSECURITV CLASSIFICATION OF THIS PAGEfft(m Data Eator&O)
20. ABSTRACT (cont'd)
Sseismic history, structural, tectonic, stratigraphic, %nd petrologicfeatures, geophysical and seismological data, and midcontinent tectonicmodels. The resolution of the zones was an iterative process, ofgeologically bounding the zones, assessing the .-storic-seismicilty, ahddetermining the recurrence rates. Each of tue eight zones was interded tobe geologically and seismologically unique. Maximum credible (MCE) andoperating basis (0) earthquakes were determined for each zone. The MCEwas a judgmental value refined-by~comparing the geologic features,
I tectonic framework, historic seismicity, aiid recurrence characteristics ofthe various seismic zones. The OBE was based on a statistical evaluation
of the seismic history and the certainty of earthquake occurrence.
(
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I,
I''
EARTHQUAKE POTENTIAL
OF ST. LOUIS DISTRICT
ST. LOUIS DISTRICT
CORPS OF ENGINEERS
K\ FEBRUARY 1981 1\o$ 0
"r pubJic .
7177 MIR WWI.rn.. -
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page21 Table of Contentsi
List of Tables ii
4' 'z List of Plates ii
Introduction 1
Geological and Seismological Parameters 1
Earthquake Recurrence
Design Earthquakes 5
Seismotectonic Zones 5
Anna, Ohio 5Southern Illinois - Wabash 6
East Embayment 6
New Madrid 7West Embayment 7Ozark Random 8Nemaha 8Central US Random 9
Conclusions 10
Appendix A: Lists of Historic Earthquakes 24
Historic Earthquakea by Chronological Date 25Earthquakes with both Magnitude and Intensity Determined 37Historic Earthquakes by Zone (foreshocks, aftershocks and
swarms removed: only primary or main earthquakes listed) 39
Appendix B: Recurrence Statistics 45
Text 46Zonal Catalogs: 10-year Listings of Earthquakes, Periodof Completeness Data, and Recurrence Statistics Data 49
Appendix C: Bibliography 83
E-4-. 41 4-
_ _ _ _ . . . .. . .._.."___nA
LIST OF TABLESPage
Design Earthquakes for the Seismotectonic Zones 9Historic Earthquakes by Chronological Date 25Earthquakes with both Magnitude and Intensity Determined 37Historic Earthquakes by Zone 39Zonal Catalogs: 10-year Listings of Earthquakes, Periodof Completeness Data, and Recurrence Statistics Data
Anna, Ohio 49Southern Illinois - Wabash 52East Embayment 56New Madrid 59West Embayment 67Ozark Random 71Nemaha 75Central US Random 78
LIST OF PLATES
Sheet No. Page
Geologic Structure 1/13 11Tectonic Features on the Basement 2/13 12Regional Faulting 3/13 13Earthquake Epicenter Locations 4/13 14Contours of Earthquakes per 10,000 Square Kilometers 5/13 15Contours of Earthquakes per 1,000 Square Kilometers 6/13 16Historic Record of Earthquakes of MM Intensity Greater
Than (Io =) V 7/13 17Cumulative Maximum Modified Mercalli Intensity Including
The New Madrid Series 8/13 18Cumulative Maximum Modified Mercalli Intensity Excluding
The New Madrid Series 9/13 19Magnetic Intensity and Bouguer Gravity Anomaly Maps 10/13 20Nuclear Power Plant PSAR Seismic Zones 11/13 21Seismic Source Zones of Other Authors 12/13 22Earthquake Source Zones 13/13 23
ii
EARTHQUAKE POTENTIAL OF ST. LOUIS DISTRICT
INTRODUCTION
The St. Louis District, Corps of Engineers is required by ER 1110-2-1806to evaluate the stability of those dams where earthquake-induced groundmotion could cause damage. The initial step of such an analysis is todetermine the potential for earthquakes near each project. Since a largeearthquake occurring in the central United States could affect severalDistrict projects, this single regional study was performed. The areaanalyzed in the study was approximately between 350 N to 430 N latitudeand 830 W to 980 W longitude.
The correlation of a given fault with a specific level of seismic
activity is not feasible in the central United States. With the exception ofthe New Madrid earthquake sequence of 1811-12, no historic earthquakes haveproduced observable surface movement in the region. However, trends can berecognized in the distribution of historic earthquakes, which implies thatgenetic relationships exist. It is more meaningful to describe seismicity interms of zones which have been defined by historic earthquakes and geologicparameters for the central United States. Zonation of the study areafollowed the approach developed by Gubin (1967) and used in zonation fornuclear power plants. The first phase of this study was to compile andanalyze existing geological, geophysical, and seismological data. Theinformation was used to determine zone boundaries and the level of seismicactivity present in each zone. In order to minimize bias toward any onefield of data, an interdisciplinary team of Corps personnel was formed toevaluate the data and define the zones.
The results of the first phase of this study were then used to determinedesign earthquakes for District projects. Two distinct design earthquakeswere determined for each zone. The maximum credible earthquake (MCE) is thelargest earthquake that reasonably can be expected to occur. Design of animportant structure for the MCE should insure that the structure does notfail catastrophically. The second design event is the operating basisearthquake (OBE) which is the largest earthquake which can be expected to
4 occur during the life of the project. Important structures should bedesigned to insure that the OBE will not pr rent their operation.
GEOLOGICAL AND SEISMOLOGICAL PARAMETERS
Geological, geophysical, and seismological data were collected andanalyzed to evaluate the earthquake potential of the region. In addition toa thorough literature review, the study used information from the ongoing NewMadrid Seismotectonic Study sponsored by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission.The study chairman, Dr. Thomas Buschbach, furnished considerable assistance.
Drs. Otto Nuttli and Robert Herrmann, St. Louis University, also madethemselves available for discussion throughout the course of the study. TheState Geological Surveys of Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas,Kentucky, Missouri, Ohio, Oklahoma, and Tennessee furnished assistance in theform of maps, publications, and discussions. Preliminar, Safety AnalysisReports of Arkansas Two (AK), Braidwood (IL), Callaway (MO), Clinton (IL),
I
WORE,
Marble Hill (IN), and Wolf Creek (KS) nuclear power plants also provedextremely valuable.
It is beyond the scope of this report to present all the information andconcepts contained in the literature. However, pertinent data used inPreparation of this report are presented as appendices and plates at the endof the text. Those geological and seismological parameters used to determine {the source zones are briefly described below. All references for this study
are presented in Appendix C.
Geologic and Tectonic History: Past tectonic events are recorded by the
" Ageologic structure of the region. Thus, geologic history provides anunderstanding of the present tectonic regime.
Basins, Arches, and Domes: These structures (plate 1/13) indicate pasttectonic activity. The boundaries, axes, and intersections of thesestructures may also act as zones of crustal weakness which influence thecontemporary stress field.
Precambrian Features: The tectonic features defined by the sedimentarystrata indicate the structural features which are present in the underlyingPrecambrian surface. Ancient zones of weakness in the Precambrian surfacemay be reactivated in response to a change in the existing stress regime.Thus, the structural geology of the Precambrian basement is important inunderstanding the relationship between tectonic features and se13licity. Thecausative faults must also lie in the Precambrian, because the foci of most
central United States earthquakes have been located near the Precambrian
surface. Plate 2/13 illustrates various tectonic structures on thePrecambrian Basement.
Stratigraphic Contours: The boundaries of any structural feature can bedependent upon the stratigraphic unit used to determine the feature.Comparison of stratigraphic contours from varying depths give an indication
of the change in a tectonic feature--and thus the stress regime--overgeologic time.
Faults and Lineations: These structures are the most obvious indicatorof' past tectonism. In addition, faults (plate 3/13) may influence thepresent stress field. A preferentially oriented unhealed fault zone, formedduring an earlier tectonic period, may be reactivated under a favorablyoriented contemporary stress regime. There is no consistent relationshipbetween young structural features and old zones of weakness. Some old faultzones have not been reactivated by younger faults and younger faults may notreflect old zones of weakness.
Active Faulting: Earthquakes are a sudden release of energy caused bymovement along a fault. Active faults, whether exposed at the surface orburied in 'ne subsurface, must be considered as potential earthquake sources(Russ, 1979 and Zoback, 1979). Properly instrumented active faults can alsoprovide insight into the existing stress regime.
2
4
Historic Seismicity: The distribution of past earthquakes may be usedLo define the present zones of seismic activity. An analysis of the seismicrecord also provides the magnitude and frequency of future events. The
seismic record was used to plot epicenter locations (plate 4/13), eventdensity contours (plates 5 and 6/13), large historic earthquakes (plate7/13), and cumulative isoseismal contours (plates 8 and 9/13).
Microearthquakes: The infrequent occurrence of major earthquakes in thecentral United States makes it difficult to understand the seismotectonicregime. Since microearthquakes occur more frequently, they may be used tosupplement the earthquake record. They also serve to locate active faultzones not exposed at the surface, to determine predominant regional focalmechanisms, and to better understand magnitude-recurrence relations.
Gravity and Magnetics: Gravity and magnetic contours may be used to- " reveal faults, rifts, and buried igneous intrusives not visible at the
surface. Earthquake sources frequently are related to high anomaly gradientsand the area between positive and negative anomalies (Braile, et al, 1979 and
) Hinze, et al, 1979). The New Madrid Seismic Study Group has developed the
most comprehensive gravity and magnetic maps (Plate 10/13) for this region to
date (Keller, et al, 1980; Johnson, et al, 1980).
Alkalic Extrusives and Intrusives: Alkalic ultramafic rocks areconsidered to have their origin in the upper mantle. Their presence thusindicates a deep rupture in the earth's crust. Buried plutoniu bodies maycreate anomalous stress conditions (Sargent & Lundy, 1975). In the centraland eastern United States, some seismic activity appearv to be associatedwith ultramafic rocks (McKeown, 1978).
Isostatic Adjustment: Regional loading or unloading of the crust causesisostatic adjustments which may produce seismic activity. Various mechanismshave been proposed: recession of the Wisconsin glacier, seasonal change ofwater load in alluvial valleys, increasing load of Cenozoic sediments, andinjection of high density instrusive rocks.
Regional Stress: There is considerable evidence indicating thatearthquakes in continental interiors are controlled by zones of crustalweakness in the presence of high deviatoric stress (Hinze, 1977).Determination of the orientation and character (compression/tension) of thestress and the type of fault movement (normal, thrust, strike-slip, oblique)is of prime importance in understanding seismic activity.
Focal Mechanism Studies: A common method of obtaining regional stressinformation is by means of focal plane solutions of earthquakes. Fault planesolutions also can be used to identify active faults not visible at thesurface, when data for several events is available.
Tectonic Models: In the central United States, seismic activity cannotbe directly related to specific geologic features. In this region,resolution of seismzc zones is partially dependent on the development ofmodels which can explain past and present tectonic activity. Such models
3
should be compatible with the concept of intraplate tectonics and must1K integrate all of the parameters discussed above.
KPrevious Seismic Zoning: Other investigators have suggested parametersfrom which zones should be established, zone boundaries delineated, and
design earthquakes resolved. Studies by Gubin (1967), Housner & Jennings(1973), Kulhawy & Ninyo (1977) and Richter (1959) have been utilized todevelop the methodology followed by this study. The most significantzonation works for this region have been three nuclear power plant reports(Illinois Power Company, 1974, Public Service Indiana, 1975, and UnionElectric Company, 1,7), plate 11/13; and Hadley & Devine (1974a,b,c) andNuttli & Herrmann (1978b), plate 12/13.
EARTHQUAKE RECURRENCE
The list of historic earthquakes was divided among each of the seismiczones, and recurrence curves were prepared for each zone. These curves weredeveloped both to compare recurrence characteristics of the various seismiczones, and to determine the OBE for each zone. Recurrence curves were notused directly to determine the MCE. Justification for statistical analysisof recurrence in based on the assumption that earthquakes occur at some
P i regular rate and magnitude throughout the historic time period. Details ofthe recurrence statistics are presented in Appendix B.
The list of historic earthquakes for each zone was compiled.Foreshocks, aftershocks, and swarms were eliminated from the record asrecommended by Chiburis (1979). The data also was analyzed to define thetime period for which the historic record of each zone could be consideredcomplete. Completeness was evaluated by techniques developed by Chiburis(1979), Nuttli (1974a), and Stepp (1973). Only earthquakes occurring withinthese periods of record were used to prepare the recurrence curves.
The recurrence curves were developed for each zone by comparing thebody-wave magnitude to the log of the number of earthquakes per year equalingor exceeding that magnitude. Recurrence curves were determined by four
procedures: least squares regression. linear regression crpstrained to apoint (in some cases this fit was not used), linear regression constrained toa slope, and weighted least squares regression. When the fit was constrainedto a point, the point of constraint was the previously determined MCEmagnitude selected to occur once in 1,000 years. When the fit wasconstraincd to a slope, the slope used was -0.92. Nuttli & Herrmann (1978b)recommend this slope for the central United States. One zone (Central USRandom) was normal'ied to an area of 100,000 square kilometers, so that theoccurre.ace of earthquakes in each zone could be compared with respect to area(Nuttli & Herrmann, 1978b).
A variety of statistics was used to evaluate the four recurrence curvefits devel)ped for each zone (Appendix B). Correlation coefficients andstandard errors of estimates were used to assess the fit of the curves to the odata points. Significance tests, using the "t distribution" procedure, wereused to compare the hypothetical -0.92 slope to that determined for the leastsquares regr,'siion. These tests indicated the earthquake record for some
source zones does not fit this hypothetical slope well. The lack ofnumerical agreement further supports the concept that slopes differ betweenzones.
DESIGN EARTHQUAKES
Maximum credible and operating basis esrthquakes were determined foreach zone. The selection of the MCE was based ppon the judgment of the studyteam and was not a statistically determined value. It was defined bycomparing the geologic features, tectonic framework, seismic history, and therecurrence characteristics of the various seismic zones. The MCE selectedfor each zone was considered to be the largest earthquake that reasonablycould be expected to occur in that zone. The MCE exceeded the maximum
i 'historic earthquake of the zone in all cases.
The OBE for each zone was based on a statistical evaluation of the
seismic history and the certainty of earthquake occurrence (Appendix B). TheOBE was chosen to be the 100-year earthquake defined by "t distribution" at a95 percent confidence interval. A sample OBE was computed from the fit whichpassed through the MCE magnitude at 1000 years. The OBE for a zone wasrestricted to be greater than the largest historic event (last 160 years) andless than the 500-year earthquake. The 500-year event has an 82 percentlikelihood of not beiag exceided in a 100 year period.
Earthquake hazards of a project will be assessed by evaluating thedesign earthquakes for each zone. The anticipated ground motion at a sitecan be determined by attenuating the ground motion of a design event. Unlessa potentially active fault is found nearby, no design event is placed at thesite.
SEISMOTECTONIC ZONES
The study area is subdivided into the eight seismotectonic zones, shown
in plate 13/13. The boundaries of the zones reflect the interrelationship of
epicenter distribution, event density, earthquake size, magnitude-recurrencerelations, microearthquake distribution, geologic/tectonic history, folds,faults, tectonic features, basement configuration, geophysical anomalies,occurrence of alkalic ultramafic rocks, and regional stress characteristics.The following paragraphs discuss the boundaries, characteristics, and designearthquakes for each zone. The body-wave magnitude, mb, and maximum
* Modified Mercalli Intensity, Io, have been assessed for design eventa.
Anna, Ohio
There is an area of moderately high seismicity located near Anna, Ohio,within the relatively stable Indiana-Ohio Platform. Because of itsuniqueness, this area has been investigated in detail (Public ServiceIndiana, 1975, p. 2E.1-1.). The boundaries of this zone are based on thelocation of magnetic anomalies, a change in gravity gradients, basementfaulting, a change in basement petrology, and earthquake density. The zoneis near the intersection of the Cincinnati, !ankakee, and Findlay Archeswhich may modify the regional stress field, thus producing a local zone of
stress accumulation and release. The zone is characterized by east-northeasthorizontal compression with fault plane solutions indicating reverse movementalong a north-south zone of weakness (Public Service Indiana, 1975).
This zone has experienced 2.5 earthquakes per 1000 km2 adjusted forthe last 100 years. The maximum known earthquake is mo = 5.3 (Io = VIII)with four other events occurring between mb = 5.0 and 5.3. The paucity ofhistoric earthquakes in this zone produced anomalous earthquake recurrence (
statistics which were not further evaluated. The MCE determined for thiszone is mb = 6.4 (Io = IX-X); the OBE is mb 6.1 (Io = IX) which isequivalent to the 500-year event.
Southern Illinois - Wabash
- The southeastern and structurally lowest portion of the Illinois Basinexhibits greater seismicity than the surrounding area. It contains thePrecambrian Fairfield Basin and the Wabash Fault Zone. This zone is borderedon the north by gravity anomalies and east-west trending magnetic contours.The eastern border is defined by the northern extent of the east Mississippigravity and magnetic high. The southern border is based on a steeplydipping, east-west trending magnetic gradient and the Cottage Grove and RoughCreek Fault Systems. The western border is defined by the Centralia Faultand the Duquoin Monocline. The Southern Illinois - Wabash Zone ischaracterized by east-west horizontal compression. Fault plane solutionsindicate reverse movement on a north-south zone of weakness (Herrmann, 1979;Street, et al, 1974). This zone is considered to be distinct from the NewMadrid zone to the south (Sargent & Lundy, 1975).
Within the past 100 years, this zone has experienced 1.3 earthquakes per1000 km2 . The maximum event is mb = 5.8 (Io = VIII). Two events haveoccurred between mb = 5.5 and 5.7, and four events between mb = 5.0 and5.4. The least squares regression for the zone results in anomalous valuesfor the slope and 1000-year event. The MCE determined for this zone is
~m b = 6.5 (Io = X-) and the OBE is mb = 6.2 (I o = IX+).East Embayment
The region east of the New Madrid area is one of moderately highseismicity. Its northeast border is defined by the edge of the MississippiEmbayment Trough, Stearns' Bending Zone 1 (Union Electric, 1974), theFluorspar Fault Complex, and the limit of Cenozoic faulting. The southeastborder is marked by the edge of the Mississippi Embayment Trough as definedby Cretaceous stratigraphic contours. The west border is defined by the east
4 ' Mississippi gravity and magnetic high, the east side of Stearns' Bending Zone2, and Atherton's second Mississippi Valley Fault (Union Electric, 1974).Fault plane solutions indicate movement on a north-south zone of weakness(Street, et al, 1974).
This zone has experienced 2.0 earthquakes per 1000 km corrected for a100 year time frame. The maximum event of record is mb = 5.7 (10 VII)and was the only event greater than mb 5.0. However, eleven eventsbetween mb =4.0 and 4.9 have occurred. The least squares regression for
6
the zone has a slope of -0.95 and a 1,000-year event of mb 6.2. The MCEdetermined for this zone is mb 6.2 (1o = IX+) and the OBE is mb 5.8(I0 = VIII+).
New Madrid
The New Madrid region is the major source of seismic activity in thecentral United States. It includes the intersection of the Pascola Arch andMississippi Embayment, Cenozoic alkalic intrusives, active faults revealed by
ttrenching (Russ, 1979), and active faults *nferred from microearthquaketrends (St. Louis University, 1980). Its northern boundary is defined by achange in earthquake density and the 3,000-foot stratigraphic contour on thenorthern flank of the Pascola Arch. To the east it is bounded by Ather'on'ssecond Mississippi Valley Fault and the east side of Stearns' Bending Zone2. Its southeast border is defined by the east Mississippi gravity andmagnetic highs. The northwest border is defined by the west Mississippigravity and magnetic highs, Atherton's first Mississippi Valley Fault, andigneous plugs inferred from gravity and magnetic anomalies.
The stress regime in this region is complex with both tension and
compression occurring south of latitude 36.30, and east-west compressionoccurring to the north. Fault plane solutions exhibit normal, reverse, andstrike-slip movement (Herrmann, 1979; Street, et al, 1974). The trends ofthe fault plane solutions strike northwest, northeast, and north-southindicating a complex generating mechanism. The focal depth for these, aswell as all other central United States earthquakes, has been found to bewithin the upper 20 kilometers of the crust (Nuttli & Herrmann, 1978b).
This zone has experienced 14.3 earthquakes per 1000 km2 within thelast 100 years. The maximum event is estimated to be proportional to a
mb = 7.4 (1o = XI-XII), the largest event of 1811-12 New Madrid Series(Nuttli, 1973c). The equivalent energy output of the New Madrid Series isestimated to be a single earthquake of mb = 7 1/2. A mb = 6.0 eventoccurred in 1843 and a mb = 6.2 event occurred in 1895. A total of sixevents have occurred between mb = 5,0 and 5.4 during the last 160 years.The least squares regression for the zone has a slope of -0.76 and a1,000-year event of mb z 7.8. The MCE determined for this zone is scaledto mb = 7.5 (I = XI-XII). Although body-wave magnitude may notinstrumentally reach this value, far field motion and other magnitude valueswill be proportional to mb = 7.5. The chosen OBE is mb = 6.9 (Io = X+).
West Embayment
The region west of the New Madrid area is one of moderate seismicity.It is bounded on the north by the edge of the Migsissippi Embayment Trough,
and on the northwest by both Stearns' Bending Zone 3 and the western edge ofnorthwest trending lineaments. Its southeast border is defined by the west
Mississippi gravity and magnetic highs, Atherton's first Mississippi ValleyFault, and igneous plugs inferred from gravity and magnetic anomalies.
7
The stress regime in this region is complex with the occurrence of bothtension and compression. Fault plane solutions indicate normal, reverse, andstrike-slip movement (Herrmann, 1979; Street, et al, 1974).
The West Embayment Zone has experienced 5.2 earthquakes per 1000 km2
adjusted for a span of 100 years. The maximum known event is mb = 4.7(10 = VI) with three other events occurring between mb = 4.5 and 4.7.The least squares regression for the West Embayment has a slope of -0.93 anda 1,000-year event of mb = 6.4. The MCE determined for the West EmbaymentZone is mb = 6.1 (1 =X) and the OBE is mb = 5.8 (Io = VIII+).
Ozark Random
i This is a region of moderate seismicity. It contains the Palmer andSimms Mountain Fault Systems, the Black and Ellington Faults, and the entireSte. Genevieve - Rattlesnake Ferry Fault System. It also encompasses thestructurally highest part of the Ozark Dome and all areas of exposedPrecambrian rock. The northern boundary is defined by the Cottage GroveFault System, a change in earthquake epicenter density, a difference inorientation of the regional structural trend, and a change in fault movementfrom normal to reverse along the northern slope of the Ozark Uplift. Theeastern border is defined by the edge of the Fluorspar Fault Complex, and thesoutheast border by both Stearns' Bending Zone 3 and the western edge of a
4zone of northwest trending lineaments. The western border is based on thecontrast of earthquake densities and the end of faulting marginal to theSt. Francois Mountains.
The stress regime, distinct from the surrounding areas, is characterizedby north-south tension. Fault plane solutions indicate normal movement on anorthwest zone of weakness (Herrmann, 1979; Street, et al, 1974).Consideration was given to dividing this zone into northern and southernportions; however, due to their similar seismicity, tectonic history andgeology, they were considered as one zone.
The Ozark Zone has experienced 3.4 earthquakes per 1000 km2 per 100years of corrected record. The maximum known event is mb = 5.0 (Io = VI)with five other events occurring between mb = 4.5 and 4.9. The leastsquares regression for the zone has a slope of -0.98 and a 1,000-yearearthquake of mb = 6.2. The MCE determined for this zone is mb = 6.0(Io = IX-), and the OBE is mb = 5.6 (I = VIII).
Nemaha
This north-south trending zone in eastern Kansas is associated with alinear zone of moderate seismic activity. This zone also contains twoCenozoic alkalic extrusives. The western border is defined by the western
44 edge of the Midcontinent Gravity and Magnetic High (MCGMH). The easternborder is defined by the eastern edge of the MCGMH and the Nemaha Uplift -Humbolt Fault System. The northern edge of this 'one is based on the changeto a northeast orientation of the MCGMH at its intersection with the Thurman- Wilson Fault. The southern border is indefinite and, a2though it may
8
extend as far as the Wichita Uplift, was defined as the southern limit of the
north-south linear trend of higher seismicity.
During the last 100 year period, this zone has experienced 0.4
earthquakes per 1000 km2 . The maximum event of record is mb = 5.5(Io VIII) with two other events occurring between mb = 5.0 and 5.4.The paucity of historic earthquakes in this zone produced anomalousearthquake recurrence statistics which were not further evaluated. The MCE
determined for the Nemaha Zone is mb = 6.1 (Io = IX); the OBE ismb = 5.8 (Io = VIII+) which is equivalent to the 500-year event.
Central US RandomI This zone includes all the central United States within the study areanot lying within one of the previously described zones. It is characterizedby horizontal compressive stress and low, random seismicity. This zone
contains such structural features as the Mississippi River Arch, the LincolnFold, the Cap au Gres faulted flexure, the shelf portions of the IllinoisBasin, the Sangamon Arch, the La Salle anticlinal belt, the Moorman Syncline,
and the Western Kentucky and Flourspar Fault Complexes. Consideration wasgiven to subdividing this area into smaller zones using some of thesefeatures as boundaries. This subdivision did not create uniquely different
zones. The low earthquake density, the random seismicity within the zone,
and the lack of association between seismicity and geologic structure
indicate that the area should be considered as one large zone.
This zone has experienced 0.1 earthquakes per 1000 km2 in the previous100 years. The maximum known earthquakes are two, widely distant mb = 5.3(Io VII) earthquakes with thirteen events occurring between mb = 4.5and 4.9. The least squares regression for the zone has a slope of -1.15 and
a 1000-year event of mb = 5.6, when its area of 544,000 km2 was
normalized to 100,000 km2. The MCE determined for this zone is Mb = 5.6(10 = VIII) and the OBE is mb = 5.3 (10 = VII-VIII).
TABLE OF DESIGN EARTHQUAKES FOR THE SEISMOTECTONIC ZONES
Zone MCE OBEmb 10 mb Io
Anna, Ohio 6.4 IX-X 6.1 IX
Southern Illinois - Wabash 6.5 X- 6.2 IX+East Embayment 6.2 IX+ 5.8 VIII.
New Madrid 7.5 XI-XII 6.9 X+
West Embayment 6.1 IX 5.8 VIII+Ozark Random 6.0 IX- 5.6 VIII
Nemaha 6.1 IX 5.8 VIII+
Central US Random 5.6 VIII 5.3 VII-VIII
9
.... .. ...
I JCONCLUSIONS
The bounaaries and design earthquakes of eight seismotectonic zones havebeen determined for the central United States. The design earthquakes foreach of the zones are tabulated above. The seismotectonic zones and designearthquakes will be used to assess ground shaking at the projects of theSt. Louis District, Corps of Engineers. Ground motions at St. Louis Districtprojects resolved from suggested design earthquakes should be expected toexceed previous Corps of Engineers design criteria. The currentstate-of-the-art of earthquake engineering does suggest, however, that thesehigher levels of shaking will occur.
r 10
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SAVAyNANTICLIVE NE
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MSALG U 9, ARMY KINGPWIM OsTMCT. ST. LOMI
slow w ot Ami"
'mm".'.'sTE~64ftST LOUIS DISTRICTma'10VME 980 GEOLOGIC STRUCTURE
ARCHES, BASINS, DOMESSYNCLINES, AND ANTICLINES
SC.~L IN ILESEARThQUAKE POTENTIAL.SCLEINMIE OF THE ST LOUIS DISTRICT
SALINKILOMETERS *F _
90
Ue 91 l 111 I
+ + I
IA 4(K-
SO r \
GO DA N\4
. I / \n
MOUNTAINS - , SACLN
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* 54
CREEK FAULT Z~~
AN~
TN ...- STRUCTURAL BOUNDARIESFAULTS
I/
NCU 3 ARMY ENGINEER DISTRICI ST LOUIS
tOues 0 (V EN(NF(RI................ . . . . . . .w.
AL GA ... ....... ST LOUIS DISTRICT
TECTONIC FEATURESON BASEMENT
SCALE IN MILES EARTHOUAKE PCILNIIAI !25 IN M 00 15 OF ST LOUIS OISTRICl:
20 40 60 W 100 2 0
SCALE IN KILOMETERS I " " F
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ j c 9 f T Z r131
+S +
""s..,,--.--, L+ IA
4 I.. -1" .
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IIA
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41-.
IL
KS±
IllII
+ +
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+ -+4+
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+ 40S
a so
KY2
':. + ±A
LEEN
1BMW -' S. ARYE;ERDSW TLWKY tA S,.~
- 4 REGIONAL- FAULTNG
SCALREE INAULTS
*~-jy ~ EARTHRUT FAUTSkiASCL INKLMTR
A'3.~A.IF
li . + + +
k. w!NE
) - I r4l4
NE KWI
! ',,tIL
ks6 , . • . . 0 ,,-- . . - - - - - - - ~ - - - - - - - . - - ~~
300•+°r
\., . ,
5- " i
6M
OK +
g .
S . S
1,4
+ +
+ +
IN..
+
0*- . ....
.......................................................... LEGD~.
~ ' . * 4mb(MMI<IV)
* + 4-51"b(MMI 'V-VII)
4 / $~ ~ EVENTS3TROUG 1ECEM BER0.
1979)
MS£ AL G A U ARMY ENGINEER19 DISTSUC?. ST LOUIS
FRMST. LOUIS DISTRICT
SCALE IN MILES HISTORILITG0 25 50 100 IS50 EARTUCUIAKFP FIA
. i I I I I __ OF ST LOUIS DISTRICT0 040 60800 00 200 -
SCALE IN KILOMaETERS 4
1- '4 MN>,
+ + + + +IA~+
NE
411
KS
C2 >
OK ?-
38A0
+S3
U4 +
( 2)I
/ 40
52242
of .~~2- KY
CONTOURS SHOW THE DENSITYOF Mb S 5 TO 4 4 EVENTSTN 1 819 TOROeJGN 19?9)
. ...... Per 10.000 Sq Km
( _2 22
MS AL GA U .~ EGNE IDITPINT.ST LOUIS
ST LOUIS DISTRICT
CONTOURSOF EARTHQUAKES
SCALE INI MILES Per 10,000 Sq Km.0 25 0 to 150EARTHQUAKE POTENTIAL
I . I ~OF ST LOUIS DISTRICT
0 20400 8010 zSo '60-*, 200SCALE iN AILOMETEPS 15-F
_X ism 5 - 4W I51
Sb b
IN
90- 49
-MO 7
T N
AR
m:~ s A L
*11 6 64 63
IN OHIN.41
" I. 40
21
Q\ (p is w4
KY LEGENDCONTOURS SHOW THE
TN DENSITY OF Mb -' 3 4EVENTS ( 1819 THROIGH 1979)Per 1,000 Sq Km
9.
U S ARMY IENGINEER DISTRICT ST LOUIS*'* *..-CORPS (V & IGNl I RS
As AL, ST LOUIS DISTRICT
CONTOURSOF EARTHQUAKES
Per 1,000 Sq. Km.%, '6 F
4 & III
44., S
S D IMN..
+
NE K .. ..
">2 + + + )
41.
I IL
740-.
-- --KS
I S"
I A °
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S9 so 4
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4 +44+A +
1+ + + + V± ± 4
+ 4 + .
A
'K IN OH 41
IL,
A KY '
+
. ... . .........
MdAXIMUM MM INTENSITY (o
'~0 '~AI EVENTS THROUGH 1979)0, NC
-0 U. S. ARMY £ENGiNgElt OTRICT. OT LOUISAL GA COAPS' OF 91NahUt
ms 6, LOIUlC "*%I*
ST. LOUIS DISTRICT
HISTORIC RECORD OFEARTHQUAKES
SCAL IN ILESOF M M INTENSITY0 -5wto 5 GREATER THAN (to-) Y10 40 i I0 200 I OVAIE POTENTIIAL 9. 57 LOUIS OrISACl
SCAL IN KILOMETERSt
-44
-~ -r MN'SD
-~ IL
KS .
-y IV M.""
-- 7
0 + 1++ I
M+
.... ........
l &44J
'OH
IL
yl 40
(s
KY
ROA NUERL LIST MAIMMKNW
A l . G A U L R E G E R G I R T S O I
ROfA NUMUALSIT MAXIMUMW
MOIrE MOADIFIEST UETO
!XX iii VII EA THQ AKES THOU E POTETIA
SCAL IN MILES OF ILRIII ST LOUIS SRC
SCALE~S IN KI LOET
CUUATV MAIUMOIFE MERCALLI 1
SD lzN
NEm
V 1-
I IL
K SC I
V
KS -
- V
/ )sI
Sm4
III
OINI'I II
( 1 - LEGEN
~ -1-----ROMAVI NUMERALS LIST MAXIMUM KNOWN
MODitiEDMERCAILI INTENSITY DUE TO
/ EARTiiQUAKES THROUGH 19n~
A! GA
AGANIS ST LOUIS DISTRICT
CUMULATIVE MAXIMUMMODIFIED MERCALLI
SCALE IN MILES INTENSITY EXCLUDING THE25 so 100 0 NE~W MADRID SERIFS
OF bI LOUIS DISIRICT0 2040 ;o0oi0 0 20
SCALE IN KILOMETERS 1
- - -A
H. ~,. go.~ 87' w
~j$y~V
r~ ~ ~z '~ .~
\ ~I\J -
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~ '~-
~/
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I - I-.- u ,S LUSDSRC
0~~~~~~~~W~l 01. ... AV BUUE RVIYANML,~~~~~~~~NMt MA..P.. ELEEA,18)MP
-' " .7.,...,.,,, OFTH ST LOUIS DISTRICT_(JOHNSO, ET.. 80
\.. 5-.€... . .. -- -F"
"l .. . " - It °
$1-..~~~O THE STI'. LOI OF.
lNE *II
2 0, F AHO;jAL AP d
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RANDOM
MO/ ~ \10O4
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+ +
+ +
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ILES'TERN OHIO
REGION
IL ILLNOI BASIN
REGIO
BASINRb4~ %-
% I
FRANCO~V, IIC GREG ON
FAC1_t REGION E R W
-m f KNTUCKY KENTUCKY
FAVFAULTED TENNESSEE-
p___ Appi~AAN LEGEND---9--- REGION - MARBLE HILL 11975)
El~OGNIC TNETUK 56- CALLAWVAY (1976)
II
GA U S ARMY ENGINEER OiSRICT. ST LOUIS
ALCO"O 0Gmgl
NISI . ST LOUIS DISTRICT
NUCLEAR POWER PLANTPSAR. SEISMIC ZONES
SCALE IN MILES0_2__so _______O EARTHOUAKE POTENTIAL
I.II~OF ST LUIS DISTRIC0 20 40 60 90100 20
SCALE IN KILOMETERS 21
"" "N' +
/ NORTHERN
t~s / /+ILLIN+OIS +! el
T/ + ++
+ I" + ± o +/+IA
ON.,P"- .... "--*
NT
-4-
42
-- + + \ " <s
WlCNITA OUACMTA 5A W/ (,
- / 4 " - AR -
~~~-1-
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+ e +4
+ + + + 'Mt
+ +w.
NORTHERN + "
+ILLINOIS + -- - +4
IN I I +
" 4
+ - -- - ANA.,OO
'(- -7 .... 'i
.1 .. Z /.M •./ - K Y3A &/
LEGEND2C /NUTTLI § HERRMAN ZONES (1976)
?C ZONE NAME M C E22 ~HADLEY I DEVINE ?OW4ES ( 1974)
/n~w~%s..SEISMIC ACTIVITY-III&SLEVLOT . LEVEL 5 (GREATEST SEISMIC
B 2C .,TN STRUCTURAL CONTROL-
SKNOWN FAULTS RELATED TOA EARTHQUAKES
/ \. / C B EARTHQUAKES ON CONCEALED5J Ac"/ B" / FAULTS
C KNOWN FAULTS UNRELATED TOK26 EARTHQUAKES
SN... .. _ .. .. .. .2CMS AL 3C GA
SCTLlmt . .w .£.95.
s*' '" "a. ST LOUIS DISTRICT
SEISMIC SOURCE ZONESOF OTHER AUTHORS
SCALE IN MILES EARTHQUAKE POTENTIAL
SCALE IN KILOMETERS 2 2
SD N
-43.
"E W
/I
OK,
40-4 .-. -
~E
KS ,U.s,
I~ A DROi
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ml
+~~~ + '
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-39
-- 1
SOUIANNA
e,,
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OZARK>RANDOM ,
A, ~ ~A,
/ TN 1
MADRL~ I
/ MSAL A 1'IW U S ARMYv 1NGINER PISTRCT. ST. L016
S.m,"S'44. ST LOUIS DISTRICTEARTHQUAKE
SOURCE ZONESEARTHQUAKE POTENTIAL
SCALE IN MILES OF THE ST.LOUIS DISTRICT
0 25 50 '00 150
020 40 60 80 100 n00
SCALE IN KILOMETERS 2 3 - F
APPENDIX A
Lists of Historic Earthquakes3
1. Historic Earthquakes by Chronological Date.2. Eartnquakes with Both Magnitude ana Intensity Determined.3. Historic Earthquakes by Zones (foreshocks, aftershocks and swarms
4 removed: only primary or main earthquakes listed).
All three lists are derived from the same set of references.
124
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44
APPENDIX B
Recurrence Statistics
1. Text.2. Zonal Catalogs.
a. Date List of Earthquakes by Ten Year Intervals.M - magnitude intervals: M:l (mb:3.0-3.4), M:2 (mb=3.5-3.9), etc.,, - ordinal number for M in reverse chronological sequence.* - earthquake occurrence within 15 days of the previous event.
0 - earthquake of mb < 3.0 (event not used in calculations.)b. Recurrence List by Magnitude Intervals.
# - ordinal number for M in reverse chronological sequence.P(yr) - period of time (in years) before 1 January 1980.T(yr), T(da) - average time interval between earthquakes within the
same magnitude interval in years, T(yr), and days, T(da).s(T)(da) - standard deviation of T in days.R(#/yr) - rate of recurrence (inverse of T) in events per year for
each M.c. Completeness Graphs.
T and s('' vs. P - minimum values of T and s(T) for each Myields the estimate for the period of completeness.
d. Ten Year Listings (by magnitude, recurrence rate, intensity).e. Recurrence Statistics Table.
log Nc - logarithm of the cumulative exceedence probability.a - log Nc intercept of the recurrence formula (log No @ mb 0).b - slope of the recurrence formula.r - coefficient of correlation of the recurrence formula.s(e) - standard error of estimate of mb on log Nc.Nc(cal)(m'b=3) - calculated Nc value (from recurrence
formula) for mb=3.mb(cal)(Nc-E-3) - calculated mb value (from recurrence
formula) for Nc=0.001.f. Recurrence Curve Graph. log Ni vs mb.
45
Estimates of earthuakes expected to recur in the future were utilizedin assessing preliminary seismotectonic zones, uniqueness of final zones,maximum credible earthquakes (MCE) for each zone, and operating basisearthquakes (OBE) for each zone. Earthquake recurrence was evaluated bystatistical resolution of the known earthquakes which have occurred in thezone.
The MCEs for the final zones were not statistically determined values.The MCE for a zone was selected by comparing the geologic features, tectonicframework, relative seismicity among the zones, and recurrence relations forthat zone. Considerable judgment by the review group was required tointerrelate sparse, reliable information with empirical relations and
)% subjective tests. In no case was a single indicator allowed to outweighother evaluations pertinent to the MCE. The OBE, by definition, should beless intense than the MCE of the same zone. The OBE for each zone was basedon the seismic history and the certainty of occurrence of earthquakes.
An equation was determined relating body-wave magnitude (mb) andmaximum Modified Mercalli Intensity (Io ) for a variety of purposes. A listof 139 earthquakes (Appendix A) defined in both units of mb and 1o wasutilized to produce a linear regression by least square error. The fit wasconstrained to the point for the largest event of the New Madrid 111/1812series: mb = 7.4, 10 = XI-XII (11.5). The relation is
(Io)calculated = -2.202 + 1.852 mb, or (1)
(mb)calculateQ = 1.189 + 0.540 Io . (2)
The standard deviation of Io on mb is 0.802. The coefficient ofcorrelation for I0 on mb is 0.822. These equations were used within thestudy area for estimating values of historic events and predictingintensities from magnitude-recurrence curves.
Seventeen separate literature references were used to compile a completedata base of historic earthquakes greater than mb = 3 (Appendix A). Over],000 individual events have been noted within the study area since the year1800. Magnitude and intensity estimates were assigned to manynoninstrumented events based on work by Nuttli (1974a, 1979c) or by equations(1) and (2).
Each event of the historic list of earthquakes was assigned by locationto a zone. Swarms, foreshocks and aftershocks were eliminated from the zonelistings of historic earthquakes, such that only the largest (primary) eventof a group of related earthquakes was itemized. Chiburis (1979) recommendedthe procedure of deleting smaller events within a short time period forsimilar locations. The list of main earthquakes for each final zone isitemized in Appendix A.
The zones were analyzed for the -mount of time the record of pastearthquakes was complete for intervals of body-wave magnitude by methods ofStepp (1973), Nuttli (1974a), and Chiburis (1979). The period to which the
data is complete may be assessed graphically: graph (for each magnitude
46
interval) logarithmic values of both the mean time period per earthquake, t,and the sample deviation of this mean perxod, s(t), against period in years.For a sufficient number of events within a magnitude interval, t and s(t)should be minima near the date of record completeness. Tables of magnitudeand intensity, curves of t and s(t), zonal listings of recurrence statistics,and graphs of recurrence relationships are contained herein for each finalzone.
Recurrence estimates may be assessed for each zone from the number of
events and the period of completeness for The magnitude intervals.Occurrence probability for any interval is the number of main events dividedby the period of completeness. The likelihood that a magnitude interval willbe exceeded is called the annual exceedance probability, N, and is the sum ofall the occurrence probabilities for intervals greater than and equal to the
be xcedd s aledth anulxcednerbabilty thn and is the mo
magnitude interval assessed. (For the Central US Zone which is 544,000
square kilometers in area, the N values are reduced by a factor of 5.44 tonormalize its area to 100,000 square kilometers.) Engineering risk for anearthquake of a given magnitude is equivalent to the annual exceedanceprobability for that magnitude. The mean return period for a given event isthe inverse of N at the same mb. The magnitude relation to annualexceedance probability is defined by
mb = a + a log N, (3)
where a is the magnitude intercept, and 6 is the line slope. This formof the equation is used because the exceedance probability is known
accurately via dates of occurrence, while magnitude values are less wellknown estimates (Neville & Kennedy, 1964). Regression ftts of equation (3)are resolved into the common form,
log N a + b mb (4)
where a - o/$ and b = l/B. Lastly, equations (3) and (4) werecorrected by procedures of Herrmann (1977). This method adjusts theincremental data to cumulative exceedance probability before computingmagnitude-recurrence relationships.
The design earthquakes for a zone are evaluated in part via regressionfits and confidence limits on the mb, N data. Four linear fits of the datawere considered: least square regression, regression constrained to a pointby least square error analysis, regression constrained to a slope by leastsquare error analysis, and least square regression of weighted (duplicatepoint) data. Linear regression is the best objective fit of a data set.When the fit was constrained to a point, the constraining point wasmb = MCE and log N = -3 (the MCE occurring once in 1,000 years). When thefit was constrained to a slope, the slope used was b = 0.92. Nuttli &
Herrmann (1978b) recommend this slope for the entire central U.S. Thisassumption was applied to each zone by finding the best line fit for thatslope. The last type of linear match was the weighted fit of data, similar
to that utilized by Nuttli (1974a). Note that recurrence lineations are
slightly different than the exact fits due to the adjustment for incremental
47
data to cumulative exceedance probability regressions. Graphs of recurrencecurves for each zone are shown in this appendix.
A variety of statistics were determined to evaluate the strength of thelinear fits for each zone. The coefficient of correlation, r, and thestandard error of estimate on mb, s(e), were resolved for lines which didnot have negative values within a square root (Maksoudian, 1969). A "tdistribution" assessment (Neville & Kennedy, 1964) was used to determin, theconfidence bands of the mean magnitudes and the slopes, and significancetests for a theoretical slope value. Significance tests on the theoreticalslope of b = -0.92 compared with the least square fit indicate that theSouthern Illinois-Wabash Zone has a linear regression slope significantlydifferent than the theoretical one. The East Embayment and West Embaymenteach have linear regressions very similar to b = -0.92 for the least squarefit.
The St. Louis District has chosen the OBE to be based upon the 100-yearearthquake with a 95 percent statistical confidence by "t distribution"assessment. Utilizing these recurrence statistics (Neville & Kennedy, 1964),a sample value of the OBE for any fit can be computed by
11r l 21/2
obesample : c-2B + t 2l0%1 + n + (-2 - log (5)L E (log Nil
where a, B and N are defined in equation (3),t is the t distribution vaLue for a 5 percent upper bound,n is the number of data points, andi represents an individual data value from 1 to n.
The value of this earthquake (sample OBE) was computed from the recurrencecurve through the MCE at 1000 years. The chosen OBE, in compariscr with the95 percent confidence 100-year event (sample OBE), was not allowed to begreater than the 500-year event on the same curve. The 500-year earthquakehas only an 18 percent likelihood of being exceeded in any 100 year period.The chosen OBE also was restricted to be greater than the largest historicevent (last 160 years).
The variety of recurrence data parameters for each final zone are listedin this appendix.
The MCE and OBE for each zone are specified by both mb and Io . Thesecond significant digit for the mb of the design event is given in orderthat estimates of ground shaking may be confined to a sufficiently narrowband. The intensity of the design earthquakes was determined by equation (1)and specified in Roman numerals. A negative (-) or positive (+) sign isutilized when the design values are just smaller or greater, respectively,than the specified in'ensities. A range of Modified Mercalli intensities isused for Io when the calculated design v;a.ues are midway between twointensities.
48
ANNA, OHIO
Zone: ANNA Date List
Year. MoDa M- # Year.oDa M- 0 Year.MoDa N- # Year.RoDa "- 11956. 127 3- 1 1944.1113 3- 2 1939. 7 9 1- 1 1939. 617 2- 11939. 318 1- 2 * 1939. 318 2- 2 1937. 5 2 2- 3 * 1937. 42? 1- 3* 1937. 423 1- 4 1937. 3 9 5- 1 * 1937. 3 3 3- 3 s 193?. 3 3 1- 5$ 193?. 3 2 5- 2 1933. 222 2- 4 1931.10 8 1- 6 1931. 929 5- 31931. 331 1- 7 * 1931. 321 1- 8 1930.19 0 2- 5 * 1930. 936 5- 44 1938. 929 1- 9 1938. 62? 2- 6 * 1936. 626 2- 7 1929. 3 6 3- 41928.1027 1- 18 1925.10 0 1- 11 1914. 0 6 1- 12 1906. 423 3- 51892. 823 1- 13 1869. 9 8 1- 14 1884.1223 1- 15 1884. 919 4- 11882. 2 9 3- 6 1876. 6 0 3- ? 1875. 618 5- 5
-one: ANNA Recurrence List
0 P T T s(T) R I P T T s(T) R(r) (r) (d) (d a (#/r) (r) (90) ( We ( W4 (lVyr)
RANGE mb: 3.8-3.41 40 40 14785 0.825 2 48 24 88 0.0413 49 16 5939 4513 0.062 4 51 13 4673 4501 e.6785 54 11 3963 4405 0.092 6 66 11 401 4268 0.0917 88 13 4592 3950 8.086 8 90 11 4124 3767 6.6899 95 11 3956 3622 0.095
RANGE mb; 3.5-3.91 41 41 14807 6.025 2 41 26 7449 8.0493 43 14 5194 5027 0.00 4 4? 12 4278 4773 6.6855 50 16 3617 4562 0.101
RANGE Mb: 4.0-4.41 24 24 8739 0.842 2 35 18 6416 6.65?3 51 1? 6187 1412 0.959 4 74 16 6729 1169 6.6545 90 26 7151 1014 0.051 6 184 17 6306 956 6.656
RANGE Mb: 4.5-4.91 95 17 6306 0.058
RANGE Mb: 5.0-5.41 43 43 15637 0.823 2 49 24 017 8.0413 49 16 5996 495? 8.061 4 105 26 9545 4658 0.038
00, a1...MW,
MUM
A
1*04I O4 @
0)0M
L L0+. 0o o
'C)
Z L Lz0x >
V vS.
C . -0 +N 0 +4 H H
w w
.. . .f--og IS O lqi,- -- • - I I 4,1
a A0p 010 .J.
49
Wl YEAR LISTItG of Earthquakes bW Nognitude
*** ZONE ANNA $*$
Y b <3 3-3.4 3.5-3.9 4-4.4 4.5-4.9 5-5.4 5.5-5.9 )5.9YEAR1970-19791960-19691950-19591940-1949 11930-1939 3 5 31920-1929 2 11918-1919 11980-19091090-1999 11880-1699 I1870-18791166-18691050-16591648-10491030-18391820-1829*" 10310-1 01910"19160ISO,91
A1790-1799.A SUMS 8 9 5 6 1 4 9
I of events - 25EARLY YEAR a 10?5 RECENT YEAR a 1956MIN b a 3.0 MAX b a 5.3
10 (EAP LISTI4G of Recurrence Rate, R (#-'vr), bs Magnitude
*** ZONE ANNA $$$
gib <3 3-3.4 3.5-3.9 4-4.4 4.5-4.9 5-5.4 5.5-5.9 >5.9YEAR
1970-19791960-19791950-1979 0.033X 1940-1979 8.050o1930-1979 8.868 9.1IO0 0.,8 8.069
1928-1979 0.083 8.083 0.056 0.0501910-1979 0.086 0.071 0043 0.0431906-1979 0.675 0.063 0.650 0.6361090-1979 8.070 0.856 0.844 0.033t0e6-1979 0.090 0.050 0.050 0.910 0.0301070-1979 0.082 .045 0.055 0.009 0.8361860-1979 0.075 0.042 0.058 0.008 0.0331050-1979 6.69 0.839 0.046 0.0 0.0311040-1979 0.064 0.036 0.043 0.08? 0.0291030-1979 0.060 0,033 0.040 0.007 9.02?1628-1979 0.056 0.031 0.038 0.006 0.825
TOTAL a 9 5 6 1 4 a 0
10 YEAR LISTING of Eorthquakes bw max MM intensitW
*I$ ZONE ANNA $$$
YEA 1 1 Iii IV u VI Vii Vill IX X XI X11Y(EARI9?0-'9?91960-19691950-1959 11940-1949 11930-1939 1 2 5 2 11920-1929 2 11910-1919 11900-1909 11090-1899 11088-1989 2 11070-1879 1 11866-18691050-18591646-10491830-10391820-10291010-18191800-18091790-1?99SUmS 1 9 5 5 1 3 1 6 0 0 6
0 of events a 25EARLY YEAR a 1875 RECENT YEAR a 1956
MIN to a Ii MAX lo a Vill
50
~. ZONE: Anna, Ohio (AREA 7.7 1M13 so km)
Period of Humber Occurronce Exceedence Exceedencermb Rorge Calculation of Events Prob Prob, Hi Return Per'd
'years) (per year) (per gear) (years)> 5.3 160 8
5.5-5.9 168 05.0-5.4 120 4 0.033 8.033 384.5-4.9 100 1 0.010 0.043 234.0-4.4 80 4 0.050 0.093 113.5-3.9 50 5 0.108 0.193 53.0-3.4 0 0
MbY data Ni,X data Period(gears) Height5.2 0.033 120 24.7 0.043 18 24.2 0.093 e 43.7 0.193 50 4
log Hi used as the independent variable; converted to Nc and resolvedto the general for, log Nc on mb.
Nc(cal) mb(cal)log Hca a + b mb r s(e) (mb=3) (Nc=E-3) FIT
1.48 -8.54 --0.98 0.83- 0.78 8.2 Least SquaresMb=4.45; ts(mb>u8.22; ts(b)=0.74;obe*?.2(2?Oyrs)
2.88 -8.92 _-8.59 0.29. 1.34 6.4 Con'd to 6.4,.001
•mba4.45;ts(mb)uO.52; ts(b)=1.?3;obe=7.2(523eyrs)
2.92 -8.92 -0,58 0.29 1.46 6.4 Con'd to ba-.92,t(b)cQl-l.49 < 2.92=t(10%)
1.51 -8.55 -8.99 8.82 8.71 8.2 Wtd:i,4P4,2,2t1
' Z~i c>n- nr) . hIc
Linear fits computed for Nc from N1,mb
z data (Ni as -rdepardent variable)
E" FIT% io Nc - a + b mb~~H I SI 4 0$
J A LS 1.46 -0.54
H • b 2.92 -0.02- wt .S1 -0.5s
< C Pt 2.88 -0.02
LL 0,
z4 - +0 0
U..,
x 00
z 0
U ~+ ILNi.mb) data pointu
&~ comnputed obe for F It- ! 11210 year ev~nt for f It
I- 4- -- 4--- I -
3 4 S 7 8
MAGNITUDE Cmb)
51
4i ,= = = _
SOTHERN ILL)NOIS-WABASH
Zone: SIW9 rDote List
?ll.r.loDO M- # YeYr.MoD. - -Yeor.HoDa M- 6 Yar.oDo M- #19'8.12 4 2- 1 1978. 6 2 2- 2 1974. 4 3 4- 1 1971. 212 1- 11970.12 8 1- 2 1969. 228 1- 3 1968.11 9 2- 3 S 1968.11 9 1- 4
t 1968.11 9 6- 1 1966. 622 1- 5 1962. 626 3- 1 1958.11 7 4- 21955. 529 1- 6 1954. 8 9 2- 4 1953.1230 2- S 1948. 1 5 3- 21946. 224 2- 6 1940.1228 2- 7 1937.111? 3- 3 1931.1231 1- 71929. 214 2- 8 1926.1026 3- 4 1926.10 3 1- 8 1926. 322 3- 51925. 928 3- 6 1925, 9 2 4- 3 1925. 426 5- 1 1922.1126 5- 21922. 110 3- 7 1921. 331 2- 9 1920. 430 3- 8 1919. 525 3- 91919. 218 2- 18 1915. 415 2- 11 1986. 9 7 2- 12 1906. 521 3- 18
$ 1986. 511 2- 13 1983. 921 2- 14 1899. 429 5- 3 1891. 926 6- 21891. 726 4- 4 1887. 2 6 4- 5 1877. 526 2- 15 1876. 926 1- 9
$ 1876. 925 4- 6 $ 1876, 924 4- ? 1860. 8 ? 3- I1 1857.19 8 5- 4183. 6 9 6- 3
Zore: SIWB Recurrence List
0 P T T s(T) R 0 P T T s(T) Rr" %yr'- Cdoa (do) (#/ur) (yr) (yr) (do) (da) (0/yr)
RANGE rtb: 3.0-3.41 9 9 3244 0.113 2 9 5 1655 8.2213 11 4 1319 1828 8.277 4 14 3 1235 938 8.2965 25 5 1796 813 8.203 6 48 8 2922 849 0.1257 53 8 2778 825 8.131
RANGE Mb: 3.5-3.91 1 1 392 0.932 2 2 1 289 1.2663 25 8 3892 1589 8.118 4 26 7 2374 1413 8.1545 34 7 2473 1293 8.148 6 39 7 2375 1187 0.1547 51 7 2655 1127 8.138 8 59 7 2682 1075 8.1369 61 7 2471 1016 0.148 18 65 6 2364 962 8.155
11 73 7 2434 917 0.158 12 76 6 2322 876 8.15713 103 8 2883 862 0.127
RANGE fb: 4.8-4.41 18 18 6397 8.857 2 32 16 5842 8.8633 42 14 5128 636 8.871 4 53 13 4856 698 0.8755 54 11 3928 946 8.893 6 54 9 3384 1155 8.1117 58 8 3025 1272 0.121 8 68 7 2724 1359 8.1349 61 7 2459 1426 8.149 18 74 7 2689 1426 8.136
11 119 11 3964 1353 8.892RANGE mb: 4.5-4.9
1 6 6 2898 0.174
7 -
"o.e: .18 Recurrence List
0 P T T s(T) R 0 P T T s(T) ROyr) i g" (do) (do ('4r) (yr) (ur> (do) (da) (S-yr)
2 21 11 3862 8.8953 54 18 6614 2276 0.855 4 88 22 8075 2688 8.6455 93 19 6786 2438 e.054 6 183 17 6286 2205 8.658
RANGE mb: 5.0-5.41 55 55 19972 0.818 2 57 29 10427 8.8353 91 27 9822 5694 0.837 4 122 31 11161 4783 8.833
RANGE rb: 5.5-5.91 11 11 4869 8.098 2 88 44 16119 8.0233 142 47 17235 7380 8.821
r 52
tb W l l
0)0
U) L0 0
I + I
00iX4\
> -;, + ox
I0 +
4L +
c 3
>X X\ x
H H
" * i ¥Ytw3A 021 Slt O t 4,!
(0 AP 0 > CD0
. .. 10 YEAR LISTING of Earthquakes bw Magnitude9 + S ZONE SIW8 $
--- ! 4~a
: W~) ',3 3-3.4 3.5-3.9 4-4.4 4.5-4.9 5-5.4 5.5-5.9 >5.9
-1970-1979 2 2 11960-1969 2 11
1950-1959 1 2 11940-1949 2 11930-1939 1 11920-1929 1 2 5 1 21919-1919 2 1
_,- , .. 1900-1999 2 1. 1899-18999 1 1-1890-1079 1 1;"" 1660-1869;lo 1se-18591
,. : ;1940-1949; 1939-1939
'" 1928-1829., 1010-1819• ",-. ;1800-169' ' 1790-1799
sums a , 13 11 6 4 3 a0 of events a 44EARLY YEAR a 1838 RECE14T YEAR a 1978
MIN mib m 3.9 MAX m~b a 5.8
I2,*, 53
JO YEAP LISTING of Recurrence Rate, R (0/ur), by Maynitude I
,,, ZONE SI.B ,*,
Mb 3 3-3.4 3.5-3.9 4-4.4 4.5-4.9 5-5.4 5.5-5.9 >5.9YEAR
1970-1979 0.200 8.286 8.1081960-1979 0.200 0.108 0.850 8.050 0.501950-1979 0.167 0.133 8.033 8.06? 8.833
1940-1979 0.125 8.150 8.058 8.858 8.0251938-1979 0.120 0.120 0.060 0.840 8.0201920-1979 8.11? 8.133 0.133 0.058 0.033 0.6171910-1979 0.188 0.143 8.129 0.843 8.829 0.0141980-1979 8.088 0.150 0.125 0.938 0.025 0.0131890-1979 0.078 8.133 0.111 8.044 8.833 0.022180-1979 0.0?0 8.120 0.180 8.050 0.630 0.020197-1979 0.064 0.118 0.091 8.055 0.027 0.0181060-1979 0.858 0.108 0.892 0.850 8.025 0.0171650-1979 8.054 0.100 0.885 0.046 5.831 0.0151848-1979 0050 0.893 8.079 0.043 0.829 0.014 A
1830-1979 0.847 0.087 8.073 0.040 0.02? 0.0281820-1979 0.044 0.081 0.069 0.838 0.825 0.019
TOTAL I 8 7 13 11 6 4 3 8
le YEAR LISTING of EarthQuakes by max MM Intensity
*SU ZONE SING US*
Slo I 11 III IV U UI Uri Uill IX X X1 Xl11 E2P1978-1979 1 2 1 11968-1969 2 1 11950-1959 1 2 11940-1949 1 1 11938-1939 1 11920-1929 1 6 1 1 21918-1919 1 1 11908-1909 2 11099-1899 1 2108-1089 11070-1879 1108-166919s-19591040-10491030-18391020-18291810-10191800-1891790-1799SUMS 8 1 15 8 6 6 1 6 0 8 0
# of events a 44EARLY YEAR 4 t038 RECENT YEAR * 1978
tI Jo M 11 MAX lo V Uill
F
i t,, 54
L
SZOIE: S IL ," Wabash (AREA = 29.2 18f3 sa km)
Period of Number Occurrance Exceedence Exceedencermb Range Calculation of Events Prob Probt Hi Return Per'd
iyearsA (per year) (per year) (years);5.9 160 0
5.5-5.9 160 3 0.019 8.819 535.0-5.4 125 4 0.032 8.051 284.5-4.9 11 6 0.855 8.195 94.0-4.4 8 18 0.125 8.238 43.5-3.9 80 12 0.158 8.381 33.8-3.4 0 8mbY data NiX data Period(years) Weight
5.7 0.019 168 15.2 0.051 125 24.7 8.105 l18 24.2 0.238 80 43.? 0.300 88 4
log Ni used as the independent variable; converted to Hc and resolvedto the general form, log Nc on nb.
Nccal) Mb(cal)log Hc a + b mb r s(e) (nb=3) (NcaE-3) FIT
2.22 -0.66 -0.99 .8L, 1.71 7.9 Least Squaresmb-4.78;ts(Mb)-8.11;ts(b)-O.23;obe-6.7(160yrs)
3.65 -1.02 .-. 65 e.26. 3.91 6.5 Con'd to 6.5,.081Mbu4. 78 ts (mb)-. 36; ts(b) O. 78; oben6.7(15689rs)
3.29 -8.92 -8.72 8.19 3.37 6.8 Con'd to b--.92. t(b)¢al-2.69 < 3.18-t15%,)
2.12 -9.63 -8.99 e.01 1.63 8.1 Wtd:l14v42,2P1
1i Zorne S 3rL / Wcabo=H
- Linear fits computed for Nc from NHImb
7 data (NI as independent varlabi.)
I- EI FZT, ooNc - a. b mb
p - LS 2.22 -0.88J A b 3.29 -.0. 42Swt 2.i2 -0.a3
• C t 3 8S -1.02
0 >
,~'j 0-, " "
- C V
.< +I+, x 0 V " '
01. t + "1. o,,z00+
U- 0
zXC
I C
H 4" 40qpwted obe for f It
-,--'--H- -i-- -+- --H,-- iI I -
3 S 7 8
MAGNITUDE Cmb)
55
EAST EMBAYMENT
Zone: EEI4B Data List
Yer.dio',a H- 0 Year.lloDa - # Year. oD4 N- # Year.NoDa - 60 1979. 217 0- 88 192. 618 1- 1 1963. 8 2 3- 1 1962. 216 2- 1* 1962. 2 2 3- 2 195?. 326 2- 2 194?. 326 3- 3 1949. 531 3- 4
1936. 8 2 2- 3 1931. 4 6 2- 4 * 1931. 4 1 2- 5 1938. 9 3 1- 2* 1930. 9 3 1- 3 1938. 1 2 1- 4 192?. 5 ? 6- 1 1925. 513 2- 6
1924. 4 2 2- 7 1922. 323 3- 5 * 1922. 322 3- 6 * 1922. 322 4- 11916.1819 1- 5 1915.1826 3- ? 1988.1231 1- 6 * 1988.1227 3- 81897. 438 3- 9 * 1897. 425 3- 18 1872. 326 1- 7 1839. 9 5 2- B
Zone: EEMB Recurrence List
I N P T T s(T) R # P T T s(T) Rqr) (gr', (da) (44) (#/wr) (9r) (Wr) (do) (da) (0/mr)
RANGE ,ib: 3.-3.41 8 8 2752 0.133 2 49 25 9088 9.8413 58 1? 6087 3130 6.868 4 63 16 5771 2557 8.0635 ?1 14 5186 2238 8.978 6 188 18 6560 2928 0.06
RANGE mb: 3.5-3.91 18 18 6527 8.856 2 23 I1 4158 8.8883 43 14 5285 1185 8.069 4 49 12 4458 1862 e.8825 49 18 3561 1159 8.103 6 55 9 3326 1191 9.118
. 7 56 8 2989 1252 8.126 3 149 18 64e6 1374 9.957
RANGE b: 4.9-4.41 16 16 5995 8.961 2 18 9 3271 9.1123 33 11 3989 1412 8.092 4 49 18 3615 1221 8.1815 64 13 4688 1878 0.978 6 71 12 4323 964 8.8847 83 12 4313 888 8.885 8 83 18 3775 837 9.997
RANGE mb: 4.5-4.9, 1 58 19 3775 8.8971 53 18 3775 8.89?
RANGE mb: 5.5-5.9
1, 53 1037, 75 0.9
A~w
.f~fl
X+\44- Lt• 0 0
# Qe
t SI o 0
I >
N +
.. N 4 0 + 0
H x H
4 4.
SNY" oi Gal ot 0z 0
W. W . .. . .
5610Jr,4
10 YEAR LISTING of Earthquakes b Magnitude
*** ZONE EENB *t*
rib <3 3-3.4 3.5-3.9 4-4.4 4.5-4.9 5-5.4 5.5-5.9 >5.9YEAR1978-1979
1960-1969 1 2
1950-1959 11940-1949 21930-1939 2 31920-1929 2 1 11910-1919 1 11908-1909 I 11898-1899 2188-18891870-18791606-18691850-18591848-18491830-18391928-18291818-18191888-18091790-1?99
sums 0 6 8 8 1 0 1 0
I of events a 24EARLY YEAR a 1839 RECENT YEAR a 1972
M N mb a 3.8 MAX mb = 5.7
10 YEAR LISTING of Recurrence Rate, R (0/wr)t by Magnitude
#$Zn(iE EEI4S *4*
mb <3 3-3.4 3.5-3.9 4-4.4 4.5-4.9 5-5.4 5.5-5.9 >5.9YEAR
1970-1979 0.1801960-1979 0.050 8.050 b.1801950-1979 0.033 0.067 0.0671940-1979 0.025 0.050 8.1801938-1979 0.060 0.108 8.8891928-1979 0.0 8.11? 0.867 0.81? 0.81?1910-1979 0.057 0.10 8.071 0.814 0.014
- 1900-1979 0.863 0.088 0.075 0.013 0.8131ose-1979 e.a56 0.e?8 8.89 0.811 0.8111880-1979 0.050 8.070 0.380 8.010 0.8181870-1979 0.055 0.064 0.073 0.009 0.8091068-1979 0.050 8.058 0.067 0.098 0.0081858-1979 0.046 0.054 0.062 e.008 .8ee1840-1979 0.043 0.050 0.05? 0.07 0.00?1830-1979 0.040 0.053 0.053 0.007 0.0?1820-1979 0.838 0.050 0.050 0.806 0.806
TOTAL # a 6 8 8 1 0 1 0
410 YEAR LISTING of Earthquakes by max MM Intensaty
S$ ZONE EENB x$$
lo I 11 11I IV U U VIl Vill IX X Xt X1iYEAR
1970-1979 11960-1969 1 1 11950-1959 11940-1949 1 11930-1939 1 3 11920-1929 1 2 11910-1919 1 11900-1909 1 11090-1899 21880-18891870-1979 11860-18691850-18591840-!8491038-1839 11820-18291810-18191088-18091790-1799
SUmS 8 1 ? 7 ? 1 1 8 8 0
I of events n 24EARLY YEAR a 1839 RECENT YEAR a 1972
MIN Io - It MAX Io a VII
57
-O1E: East Embayment (AREA * 11.6 1813 sq ki)
Period of Number Occurrance Exccedence ExceedenceMb Range Calculation of Events Prob Prob, Hi Return Per'd
(years) (per gear) (per year) (years),59168 8
5.5-5.9 160 8. 086 8.086 1605.0-5.4 126 8 0.e8e 9.596 168
r?4.5-4.9 too i O.Gl0 ±.16 624.0-4.4 85 8 1 .8594 8.6.12a 93.5-3.9 60 ?. ts7 0.10e1.227 43.0-3.4 8 0mbpY data MIX data Pariod(years) 1Weisht
5.7 0. 896 160
5.2 -8. 8.0 120 24.. 0.016 1m 24.2 0. 1 85 4
" 3.7 0. 227 60 4
l i aot Hi used as the independent variable; converted to Hc and resolved" to the general form; l09 Nc on mb.
l Hc(Cal) mb(cal)
lo. fc a + b .b r s) b=3) (c-E-3) FIT42.89 -0.95 -0.96 0.8- 1.05 6.2 Least Squares. ~~mb=4. 781ts(mb) =8.28; ts(b)=8. 43;0be:5.8(478e!rs )
t(b)cal=8O 19 < 2.35=t(10%.)
'_i3.13 -1.02 -0.97 0.94 1.18 6.0 Wtd:lP4v4,2P2, t
Lin~ear fits computed for Nc from NI~mb
- ,; z.L data o NI an independent variable)
- , , .Q vFIT- :og Nc -a 4 b ffb
.JAH... b 2.74 -0.92
.. . ......... wt 3.13 --1.02<C
M0
w 0-;;U 4-
zo~ r +
;L' *.1a 4.
' 0 0 1 "A•L AN
z+0 + CNi~mb) data poants
7UC I L onpted *be for f-t
H ~ 1000 year event for 't
" - -*- --- -.... -- I I I I I i I
3 4 S 6 7 8
MAGNITUJOE Cmb)
58L lr
NEW MADRID
Zone: IHMAD Date List
(er.toMcDQ "- 6 Year.IloDa "- I Year.MoDa M- 0 Y*G,."oD* R- N8 1979.1126 0- s6 8 1979. 713 8- 8 1979. 7 8 1- J * 1979. 625 t- 2
1979. 610 2- 1 1979. 2 4 1- 3 6 1979. 2 2 6- 68 6 1978.12 6 0- 80 1978. 910 a- 06 6 1978. 9 7 e- 8 1978. 836 2- 2 9 1978. 726 8- 880 1978. 4 5 6- 08 0 1978. 336 6- 08 6 1978. t18 B- 6o 6 1977.11 9 a- a0
197?.10 4 1- 4 8 1977. 328 8- 0 1976. 925 2- 3 1976. 522 1- 51976. 324 5- 1 * 1976. 324 4- 1 6 1976. 122 B- B8 8 1975.12 2 6- 06
0 81975. 925 0- 0 1975. 825 1- 6 e 1975. 820 0- 69 8 1975. ? 6 6- 81975. 628 1- 7 * 1975. 613 3- 1 1975. 213 1- 8 1975. 1 2 1- 9, 1974.1225 0- 66 0 1974.11 7 0- 06 0 1974.10 1 0- 8 1974. 513 3- 2
1974. 312 1- 10 6 1974. 318 0- 00 * 1974. 3 4 1- 11 t 1974. 224 1- 121974. 1 7 3- 3 1973.1220 1- 13 1973.16 9 2- 4 * 1973.10 2 1- 141972. 5 6 1- 15 1972. 329 2- 5 1971.1018 1- 16 1971.10 1 3- 41971. 413 1- 17 1970.1224 2- 6 $ 1970.1214 I- 18 1970.1125 1- 19
* 1970.1116 3- 5 1 1970.11 5 1- 26 1970. 326 1- 21 1970. 1 ? 2- 71969. 727 1- 22 1968. 714 1- 23 1968. 529 2- 8 1968. 2 9 2- 91960. 123 1- 24 1967.1817 1- 25 1967. 7 6 1- 26 1967. 411 1- 271967. 212 1- 28 1966. 313 1- 29 1966. 213 2- 18 * 1966. 211 2- 111965.1U9 2- 12 1965. 814 2- 13 S 1965. 813 1- 30 1965. 7 8 1- 311965. 6 1 1- 32$ 1965. 525 1- 33 1965. 326 1- 34 * 1965. 325 2- 141965. 210 1- 35 1964. 523 2- 15 1964. 316 2- 16 1964. 125 1- 36
$ 1964. 115 1- 37 1963. 5 1 1- 38 1963. 4 6 1- 39 * 1963. 331 1- 481962. ?23 3- 6 1962. 6 1 1- 41 * 1962. 524 1- 42 1962. 325 1- 431 ' 2966. 421 3- 7 1960. 128 3- 8 1959.1221 3- 9 1959. 726 1- 44
-, 1959. 213 3- 10 1959. 121 2- 17 1958. 519 2- 18 1958. 426 3- 111958. 463- 12 1958. 127 3- 13 $ 1958. 126 3- 14 1957. 8172- 191956.1029 3- 15 1956. 128 4- 2 t 1956. 123 1- 45 1955.1213 3- 16
* 1955.1213 1- 46 1955. 924 2- 28 1955. 9 6 1- 47 $ 1955. 9 5 3- 171955. 329 4- 3 1955. 125 4- 4 1954. 426 3- 18 1954. 117 2- 211953. 515 1- 48 1953. 512 2- 22 $ 1953. 5 6 1- 49 1953. 218 1- 50
Zort: IIAD Date List
.'ear .1oD0Ci It- * Year.HoDa M- 0 Yeor.MoDe M- I Yer.NoDa M- S1 1953. 217 2- 23 * 1953. 217 1- 51 * 1953. 211 2- 24 1952.1220 1- 52t 1952.1225 1- 53 t 1952.1224 3- 19 3 1952.1224 2- 25 1952.1016 2- 261 1952.1016 1- 54 * 1952.1016 1- 55 $ 1952.1016 1- 56 1952. 716 4- 54 1952. 716 2- 27 1952. 528 2- 28 1952. 228 3- 28 1951.1218 1- 57* 1951.1217 1- 58 1950. 5 1 I1- 59 1949. 813 1- 60 1949. 131 3- 21
1949. 113 3- 22 1947.1215 3- 23 1947. 116 1- 61 1945.1113 3- 241945.1027 1- 62 1945. 923 -- 29 1945. 8 6 1- (3 $ 1945. 8 6 1- 641945. 5 2 2- 30 1944.1223 2- 31 1942. 831 2- 31 1941.1116 4- 6
* 1941.1114 2- 33 1941.1026 1- 65 $ 1941.1821 2- 34 $ 1941.16 8 3- 251941. 827 1- 66 1948.1010 1- 67 1946. 919 1- 68 1940. 214 1- 691939. 919 1- 70 )939. 415 1- 71 1938. 928 1- 72 * 1938. 918 1- 73
$ 938. 918 1- 74 $ 1938. 917 1- 75 S 1938, 917 4- 7 1938. 617 1- 761938. 316 1- 7? 1937.10 5 1- 78 1937. 623 1- 79 1937. 138 2- 351936.1031 1- 80 $ 1936.1028 1- 81 1936. 216 2- 36 935. ?23 2- 371934. 819 4- e $ 1934. 819 1- 82 1934. 7 2 2- 38 1933.12 9 3- 261931.1210 2- 39 1931.1122 2- 46 1931. 718 2- 41 1938. 9 1 3- 2?
* 193G. 829 3- 28 1936. 813 1- 83 1930. 4 2 2- 42 $ 1938. 32? 2- 431936. 218 1- 84 1929. 512 2- 44 1928. 531 2- 45 1928. 423 2- 46
* 1928. 415 2- 4? 192?. 813 3- 29 1927. 5 7 5- 2 1927. 418 3- 381926. 121? 3- 31 * 1926.1213 2- 48 1926. 427 3- 32 1924. 6 6 3- 331923.1231 4- 9 1923.1129 2- 49 $ 1923.1126 3- 34 1923.1928 5- 31923. 515 2- 50 * 1923. 5 6 2- 51 1922. 334 3- 35 1921. 227 2- 521921. 1 9 2- 53 1919. 528 2- 54 * 1919. 528 2- !.5 * 1919. 526 2-56
; 1919. 524 2- 57 4 1919. 523 2- 58 1918.1e 4 3- :16 1918. 217 2- 591916.1218 4- 10 1916. 824 2- 66 19'6. 521 3- '? 1915.12 7 4- 111915.11 8 2- 61 1915. 428 3- 38 1988.1027 3- 39 1988. 928 3- 481905. 821 5- 4 1983.112? 3- 41 * 1983.1127 3- 42 $ 1903.1125 1- 85$ 1903.1124 I- 86 1903.11 4 5- 5 S 1903.11 4 4- 12 1991. 914 1- 8?1901. 214 3- 43 1898, 614 4- 13 1898. 126 2- 62 1895.1117 2- 63
59
Zone: t.AD ate List
Year.rlkDo I- # Yeor.MoDo M- 0 Year.MoDa M- 0 Year.floDa H- 01895.11 2 2- 64 * 1895.11 2 2- 65 * 1895.11 1 2- 66 * 1895.1031 7- 11 1895.1018 1- 88 * 1895.101? 1- 89 * 1895.10 3 1- 98 1892. 114 1- 911891. 114 2- 67 1889. 719 2- 68 1889. 6 5 1- 92 1888.11 3 2- 691887. 8 2 4- 14 1886. 318 2- 78 * 1886. 317 4- 15 1884.1129 3- 441883. 714 3- 45 * 1883. 7 6 1- 93 1883. 611 4- 16 1883. 412 3- 461883. 111 4- 17 1882. 720 3- 47 1881.18 7 2- 71 1888. 713 3- 481879. 925 2- 72 1879. ?26 1- 94 1878.1118 4- 18 1878. 312 3- 491878. 1 8 2- 73 1877.1119 2- 74 1875.1827 2- 75 1875.18 7 3- 581874. 7 9 2- 76 1873. 822 1- 95 18?3. 5 3 3- 51 1872. 820 1- 961872. 420 1- 97 1872. 2 8 2- ?7 1870.1214 2- 78 1868.1121 1- 981865. 9 7 2- 79 1865. 817 5- 6 1858. 921 4- 19 1857. 2 9 2- 881856.11 9 3- 52 1855. 5 3 1- 99 * 1855. 5 2 2- 81 1853.1218 4- 20S 1853.1212 4- 21 1853. 828 1-18 1849. 124 3- 53 1846. 323 1-1911843. 613 1-102 1843. 216 4- 22 1843. 1 4 ?- 2 1842.11 4 3- 54* 1842.11 4 3- 55 1842. 52? 2- 82 1842. 327 2- 83 1841.1227 3- 561920. 827 2- 84 1818, 3 9 1-103 1816. 725 2- 85 X 1816. 725 2- 861812, 2 7 7- 3 1812. 123 7- 4 1811.1216 7- 5 1699.1225 3- 57
Do you wish to plot Time Intrl-Period Curves (Y or N)?
Zore: 1411AD Recurrence List0 P T T s(T> R 0 P T T s(T) R
(yr' (Yr) (do) (do) (*yr> (jr) (Yr) (do) (do) (0/lr)RANGE Mb: 3.0-3.41 0 0 176 2.075 2 1 0 95 3.8653 1 8 110 43 3.320 4 2 1 285 53 1.7865 4 1 264 69 1.386 6 4 1 265 73 1.3797 5 1 255 ?2 1.435 8 5 1 228 67 1.6029 6 1 236 64 1.551 10 6 1 214 61 1.71011 6 1 200 58 1.825 12 6 1 190 55 1.92213 8 1 2:5 53 1.699 14 8 1 214 51 1.707
15 9 1 212 49 1.721 16 9 1 20? 47 1.76917 9 1 195 46 1.871 18 19 1 198 45 1.84319 10 1 268 43 1.822 20 11 1 209 42 1.74521 12 1 208 41 1.759 22 12 1 203 40 1.80223 12 1 198 39 1.842 24 13 1 194 38 1.88625 13 1 188 38 1.941 26 14 1 194 37 1.88427 14 1 196 36 1.865 28 15 1 190 36 1.92029 15 1 184 35 1.986 30 15 0 181 35 2.81531 16 1 188 34 1.942 32 17 1 190 34 1.92833 17 1 185 33 1.972 34 18 1 189 33 1.93435 18 1 184 33 1.988 36 18 0 188 32 2.02637 20 1 202 32 1.809 38 24 1 238 32 1.587 "39 27 1 250 32 1.463 40 2' 1 247 33 1.48141 28 1 250 33 1.462 42 36 1 258 34 1.41643 38 1 258 34 1.415 44 33 1 274 36 1.335
Zone: NMAD Recurrence List
0 P T T s(T) R 0 P T T s(T) R
9r) (yr) 'do) (do) (0/9r) (yr) (yr) (da) (da) (0/1r)45 34 1 277 37 1.317 46 34 1 273 38 1.3 747 38 1 297 39 1.231 48 38 1 292 48 1.25249 39 1 292 42 1.249 58 39 1 28? 42 1.27351 40 1 286 43 1.279 52 48 1 283 44 1.29153 41 1 281 44 1.302 54 41 1 279 44 1.39955 42 1 276 45 1.324 56 42 1 273 45 1.34857 42 1 271 45 1.350 58 43 1 268 45 1.36459 43 1 267 45 1.366 69 49 1 391 45 1.215K 61 58 1 299 46 1.223 62 78 1 461 54 8.79263 84 1 488 63 0.748 64 84 1 481 69 6.76865 98 1 494 76 8.739 66 91 1 501 82 0.72967 188 1 547 89 8.66? 68 186 2 571 96 8.63969 10? 2 568 183 0.643 70 108 2 562 188 9.65071 111 2 572 113 0.639 72 126 2 641 121 0.57873 134 2 669 128 0.546 74 137 2 674 136 8.54275 162 2 788 147 8.463
RANGE mb: 3.5-3.9
1 1 1 204 1.798 2 1 1 244 1.4973 3 1 397 102 0.919 4 6 2 569 166 0.6425 8 2 567 172 8.645 6 9 2 549 166 8.6657 10 1 521 156 e.701 8 12 1 529 149 8.6989 12 1 483 139 8.757 10 14 1 507 133 8.721
11 14 1 461 126 8.792 12 14 1 42? 128 8.85513 14 1 484 116 8.984 14 15 1 385 113 8.94815 16 1 386 119 8.961 16 16 1 361 188 1.81317 21 1 450 105 0.8:2 18 22 1 439 182 0.83319 22 1 438 99 0.849
..ore : It1tAD Recurrence List
" U P T T s(T) R 4 P T T s(T) R,yr, ,w' (do) (do) (#/,0'(r) (W(r) (do) (da) (0/wr)
20 24 1 443 96 0.82421 26 1 451 94 0.889 22 27 1 442 92 0.82623 27 1 427 90 0.856 24 27 1 411 88 6.88825 27 1 397 86 0.919 26 28 1 388 85 8.9422? 34 1 464 84 0.788 28 35 1 452 82 8.89829 35 1 441 81 0.828 38 37 1 455 79 0.88431 38 1 450 78 8.812 32 43 1 498 77 0.74633 44 1 486 77 0.752 34 44 1 477 76 e.76535 45 1 475 75 8.769 36 48 1 488 74 0.749
* 37 48 1 475 73 0.769 38 48 1 466 72 0,78439 58 1 466 71 0.784 40 58 1 454 71 8.88441 51 1 451 78 0.810 42 52 1 449 69 8.81443 52 1 439 68 8.832 44 56 1 466 67 8.78445 57 1 468 67 G.794 46 59 1 46? 66 8.79247 59 1 458 65 0.797 48 61 1 461 64 8.79249 62 1 461 64 0.792 58 63 1 463 63 0.78951 64 1 459 63 0.795 52 82 2 575 64 8.63553 89 2 613 68 8.596 54 90 2 612 78 0.59755 91 2 685 73 8.603 56 98 2 641 76 0.57057 10 2 642 79 8.569 58 102 2 642 82 8.56959 102 2 632 84 0.578 69 104 2 634 86 8.57661 185 2 632 87 0.578 62 188 2 636 89 0.57563 109 2 632 90 8.S78 64 123 2 701 94 9.52165 125 2 701 97 8.521 66 138 2 761 102 0.48867 138 ? 751 106 0.486 68 168 2 859 114 8.42569 163 2 865 121 0.422
61
61
Zone: NMA Recurrence List k }N P T T s(T) R # P T T s(T) R
(!yr', 'sr) (do) (do) (#/yr) (yr) (yr) (do) (do) (0'Wr)RANGE iib: 4.8-4.4
1 5 5 1662 8.228 2 6 3 1829 0.3553 6 2 728 477 8.582 4 8 2 753 435 8.4855 9 2 666 412 e.548 6 17 3 1062 371 8.3447 20 3 1028 339 0.355 8 28 2 910 315 0.4029 20 2 813 3e8 e.445 IJe 21 2 763 290 e.479'11 22 2 726 283 8.587 12 22 2 661 280 e.55213 22 2 616 279 .593 14 22 2 52 288 8.63815 23 2 564 281 8.647 16 24 2 59 28 .6
17 24 1 523 281 8.699 18 26 1 521 288 8.78119 27 1 519 279 e.7e3 20 28 1 509 278 8.71821 31 1 538 275 8.679 22 31 1 514 273 8.71123 32 1 59 271 0.718 24 34 1 519 26 8.78325 38 2 559 265 0.654 26 46 2 647 268 8.56427 49 2 667 255 8.547 38 49 2 644 25 8.56839 52 2 660 246 8.554 38 53 2 642 242 8.56941 53 2 625 238 8.584 32 54 2 613 235 0.59633 56 2 615 232 0.594 34 56 2 603 29806631 58 2 603 226 0.606 36 61 2 621 223 0.5883? 64 2 628 220 8.582 38 65 2 622 217 0.58839 71 2 667 214 e.548 40 71 2 651 212 0.561 i' 41 76 2 678 269 0.539 42 79 2 686 206 0.53243 95 2 888 285 8.452 44 96 2 881 283 0.45645 97 2 785 281 0.465 46 9? 2 774 288 8.47247 99 2 773 198 8.473 48 182 2 775 196 8.47249 184 2 77? 194 0.478 58 187 2 779 193 0.469
2ore: I411AD Recurrence List2. p P T T s(T) R I P T T s(T) R
49r) rp (do) (do) (6('r) ( r (9r) (do) (do) CO/Mr)51 123 2 882 192 8.414 52 131 3 928 193 6.39753 137 3 945 194 8.386 54 138 3 933 194 8.39155 288 5 1860 247 0.196
RANGE mb: 4.5-4.91 24 24 8738 8.042 2 25 12 4522 8.8813 25 8 3835 2959 8.128 4 27 7 2507 2824 8.1465 38 8 2785 259. 8.131 6 41 7 2513 2432 8.1457 45 6 2367 2386 8.154 8 56 7 2557 2178 0.143
T, 9 63 ? 2558 2068 0.143 18 64 6 2340 1985 8.15611 82 7 2788 1694 8.135 12 92 8 2813 1812 8.13813 94 7 2635 1745 0.139 14 97 7 2519 1687 8.14515 97 6 2361 1648 8.155 16 181 6 2388 1597 8.15817 121 ? 26P6 1551 8,148 18 126 7 2558 1589 8.143
RANGE mb: 5.0-5.41 4 4 1377 8.265 2 53 26 9616 8.8383 56 19 6839 4192 8.853 4 74 19 6798 3448 8.0545 76 15 5563 2998 8.866 6 114 19 6962 2788 e.052
RANGE mb: > 5.91 84 84 38741 8.812 2 137 68 25817 8.0153 168 56 20441 5161 0.018
62
WIll
WIl II
x +l L)K n 0
n iii 0)
4 ,4 1
x > V
4 O. 0,
~4
"'N3 4 Q?C ELNs t
0 0
N 3 -4 4 4x H- 4
0-4 03
4 -4 -4
4 4 4 <3 3 7 .- 39 54 4. 9 5
10 YEARLTnt o 2S5
I4 ERIY YZONE HIIRCENAYER $197III)HI (3b -34 3.5-.9 -X. 4.-4. 5 -7.4 559)
1970-1979 18 7 5 1
- I 960-196) 1 9 31950-1959 to1 12 4
1940-1949 9 5 5 1211938-1939 10 9 3 219122 7 1 2
1918-1919 4 3 2 2
191999 3 2 11- ,..
190:-189914less188 1 3 5 4
87-994 7 3 1I
1958-1659 I 2 1 21
1840-1849 2 2 31838-1 839t*28-1829I18-16191 1
1790-1791790-S79 75 69 54 186 8 3
s of events - 225 RCN ERa 17
EARLY YEAR a 1699 REEN YAR a 174
m1H mb - 3.8 A b .
- 63
Ir
10 YEAR LISTING of Recurrence Rate, R (#/wr)p bw fl9nitude
*** ZONE HMAD $$
mb .3 3-3.4 3.5-3.9 4-4.4 4.5-4.9 5-5.4 5.5-5.9 >5.9YEAR
1970-1979 1.888 0.780 8.508 8.1881960-1979 1.888 0.880 0.488 0.8581958-1979 1.488 0.86? 8.66? 0.133 8.8331946-1979 1.275 0.775 8.625 0.125 0.8251938-1979 1.220 8.88Z 0.568 8.148 0.8201920-1979 1.01? 0.783 8.583 0.133 0.850l918-0.1s 8.871 0.729 0.543 0.143 8.0431908-1979 8.775 0.638 0.525 0.125 0.0631898-1979 0.722 0.589 6.46? 0.122 0.856 8.8111988-1979 0.660 0.568 8.470 0.150 0.858 8.0181879-1979 0.636 8.573 0.455 0.145 8.845 8.0891969-1979 8.592 8.525 8.41? 0.133 8.058 8.881850-1979 8.554 0.500 8.392 8.138 8.046 0.0891048-1979 0.529 0.479 0.386 0.129 8.043 8.8141838-1979 8.493 8.44? 0.368 8.120 0.840 8.8131820-1979 8.463 0.425 0.338 8.113 0.038 8.013
TOTALO 8 74 68 54 18 6 8 2
~t
10 YEAR LISTING of Earthquakes by mex MN Intensity
$$I ZONE HNAD $*4
1o 1 11 111 IV U Vl VIl VIII IX x XI Xil"EAR
1970-1979 10 8 9 41960-1969 19 6 3 1 11950-1959 6 12 10 41940-1049 9 6 4 11930-1939 3 8 9 2 2152O-1929 2 9 4 21918-1919 2 3 2 21980-1989 1 2 2 21890-1899 3 31 -18169 1 5 3 4170-175 8 1 11860-1869 1 11850-1859 1 3 11840-1849 2 2 31830-10391820-1029 11810-1819 1 1 11888-18691798-1799SUmS 0 3 71 78 44 28 6 1 1 8 8 1
S of events a 225EARLY YEAR a 1699 RECENT YEAR c 1979
"IN to a 11 MAX 1o a XII
64
i- "-.
: OIE: tHAD ,AREA * 18.8 11t3 sq km,)
Period of Humber Occurrance Exceedence Exceedencemb Range Calculation of Events Prob Prob, Ni Return Per'd
(Vears) (per year) (per. ear) (9ears)5.9 160 2 .B8N a813 88
5.5-5.9 160 8 0.888 5.013 8e5.0-5.4 160 6 0.038 9.058 204.5-4.9 130 18 8.138 8.188 54.0-4.4 110 58 0.455 8.643 23.5-3.9 80 51 0.638 1.281 13.0-3.4 20 36 1.888 3.081 a
mbY data HxX data Period(years) Weisht5.? 0.013 168 15.2 0.058 168 24.7 0.188 130 24.2 8.643 118 43.? 1.281 B 43.2 3.881 20 1
lot Hi used as the independent variable; converted to Nc and resolvedto the general formo log Nc on mb.
Hc(cal) emb(cal)lot Nca a + b mb r s(e) (mbx3P (HcME-3) FIT
3.68 -0.97 --0.99 0.02_ 5.91 6.9 Least Squaresmb.4.45;ts(mb)=0.1l;ts(b)-8.14;obeu6.2(228wrs)
3.11 -0.82 - 4.64 7.5 Con'd to ?.5,.001Mb-4.45t ts(qb)uS.21; ts(b)aB.26;obe"6.9(350yrs)
3.48 -8.92 5.27 7.9 Con'd to b--.92t(b)cals.?? 2.13-t(10e)
3.72 -8.97 -8.99 0.82 6.41 6.9 Wtd:tt4v4,,21
" <1
Zone NMAD
,1' LIneor fits computed for ,Ic from NImb
data CNi am ind.pendent variol.)+ " FItT- log Nc - a *" I mb
H I LS 38 -, Q7H 0 : 3 46 -.0 92
. ---- -Pt 3 72 -0.02
0.o +SW 0U'.- ± .U4- .5
z*0i 0
w-
0
~ OO~ .1+ CNI.ob) data points5'~U 1-, 0 O; I - co psoad ob. for f It
H !t I0OU year yori'. 70, f t 5
3 4 6 7 8
MAGNITJDE Cmb>
65
ZONE: N Madrid w 1812 (AREA u 18.8 1013 sq kn)
mb , data Ni#X data Period( cars) Weitht7.2 0.006 16.? o.06 166 16.2 0.018 160 15.7 8.018 160 15.2 0.056 168 24.7 0.192 125 24.2 8.649 110 43.? 1.287 80 43.2 3.087 28 Ilog Hi used as the independent variable; converted to Nc and resolved
to the general forng log Hc on gqb.Hc(cal) mb(ca1)
los cs a 4 b mb r s(e) (tqb-3) (Nc=E-3) FIT2.94 -0.76 .-0.98 0.85- 4.69 7.8 Least Squares
fmb-5.280 ts(jb)=8.17; ts(b)=0.17;obe"7.1(260Wrs)
3.25 -0.83 --0.89 8.14- 5.63 7.5 Con'd to 7.5,.881cmb=5.20; ts(nb)=. 19 ts(b)-0.20;obe-6.9(3308rs)
3.70 -0.92 -0.81 0.21 8.80 7.3 Con'd to b=-.92:,, t(b)cll.79 < 1.9e=t(18 .)
3.04 -0.78 -8.99 8.03 5.08 7.8 Itd: 1,4p4,2,2,1
Zc>r- : N M dcir i a w 1812
Linear fits computed for No from NImbZ dota (NI as independent varloble)
> ; FIT- log No - a b mb
HIA LS 2.04 -6.76....... 3.7 -0.82
H IM.. .. . . ............ wt 3.04 -8.78
4 C Pt 3.25 -0.63M 60 >
0 -
.Izd 0.1.S
rc
- N
3O 4\ +
r MAGNITUDE Cmb-5
I6
WEST E MBAME NT
L0
rna: WE118 Date List
"ea7 r. 1DI l- # Year.floDa N- 0 Yeor.MoOa M- I Year.NoDa M- Q1979.11 5 1- 1 1979. 227 1- 2 1978. 923 1- 3 1978. 4 3 1- 41977.1126 1- 5 0 1977. 415 0- 96 1974.1212 1- 6 1972. 131 3- 119 ,69. 1 1 4- 1 1965. 815 1- 7 41965. 814 1- 8 1965. 913 1- 91964. 523 2- 1 1963. 419 2- 2 1963. 3 3 4- 2 1962. 713 1- 161954. 2 2 3- 2 1947.12 1 3- 3 1946. 515 3- 4 1942.1130 1- 11'J1941.1122 1- 12 1940. 2 4 1- 13 1937. 516 3- 5 1936.1220 1- 141936.1125 1- 15 $ ;1936.1123 1- 16 1933.1024 1- 17 1933. 311 2- 3
t 1933. 311 2- 4 193930. 126 2- 6 1928.1225 2- 11928.1110 2- 8 1928. 415 2- 9 192?. 2 3 2- 10 1927. 131 3- 61926.1827 3- 7 1922. 328 3- 8 1919.11 3 3- 9 1919. 4 8 2- 6t1918.1013 3- 18 1917. 6 9 3- 1 191?. 5 8 2- 12 *1917. 5 8 1- 181909.1923 4- 3 1993.18 4 4- 4 1898. 414 1- 19 1895.1830 1- 20S 1895.1030 1- 21 9 1895.1030 1- 22 1883.12 5 3- 12 1883. 110 1- 23
S1077. 715 3- 13 * 1877. 714 3- 14 $1877. 714 3- 15 1871. 724 1- 24S102.11 9 3- 16
Zone: WE11 Recurrence List
0 P T T s(T) R 0 P T T s(T) R(yr> kwr) (do) (do) (#/Wr) (wr) (yr) (do) (do> (#.,yr)
RANGE mb: 3.0-3.41 0 0 56 6.522 2 1 0 154 2.3793 1 8 155 57 2.362 4 2 8 159 58 2.2945 2 0 153 44 2.38 6 5 1 328 81 1.189? 14 2 750 234 .487 8 17 2 798 291 .4581# ,9 37 4 1505 481 0.243 18 30 4 1392 542 8.2621 40 4 1325 566 0.276 12 43 4 131 576 8.2791 3 43 3 1211 571 0.302 14 46 3 1205 564 0.30315 82 5 1990 631 0.184 16 84 5 1921 666 8.19, 17 93 6 2063 70 0.175 10 109 6 220 145 9.166
RANGE mb: M.5-3.91 16 16 570 8.064 2 16 8 3052 6.1203 4 11 369 9 653 .064 4 50 12 4552 1256 O.19O5 50 10 3647 1194 0.110 6 51 9 326 1216 .1137 51 ? 266 1269 0.137 8 52 6 2161 1319 .1559 53 6 2147 1358 0.178 10 61 6 2219 1359 0.165
: 11 63 6 2089 1360 0.1?6,, RANGE mb: 4.0-4.4a2891 8.126 2 26 13 4732 8.077
3 32 11 3909 M 0.094 4 34 8 3071 846 3.1195 43 9 3114 771 0.117 6 53 9 3221 782 0.1137- 53 8 2775 695 0.132
Zone: IJEIIB Recurrence List
U P T T s(TN R # P T T s(T) RS(wr kwr (do) (do) (#/r) (yr) (9r) (do) (do) (S/tr)8 58 7 2637 696 6.1399 60 7 244: 718 8.150 10 61 6 2236 736 8.163V 11 63 6 2077 ?63 8.176 12 96 8 2924 728 0.12513 102 8 2879 698 0.127 14 159 11 4152 739 8.088
RANGE m): 4.5-4.91 11 11 4016 0.891 2 17 8 3874 6.11493 78 23 8545 2925 8.043 4 76 19 6962 2544 6.e52
67
x +
10124 0
ww
'a, V
+y+A+ L
0 t..
N xx
XXt
aNn.1 N -M IV/,N-.4l 3WXI
k -:~1 iYtOEAP LIST1ING of Earthqmtukez by Nagnitude
l~*It ZONE MEMOt~
sib 3 3-3.4 3.5-3.9 4-4.4 4.5-4.9 5-5.4 5.5-5.9 #5.9
4YER
19?0-t9?9 61960-19692
2
"I 950-1959 1
1940-1949 3 2
938-1939 3 3 1! 920-1929 4 3
1910-1919 2 3' 1900-19092
9l.-1999 2
o *, tnQ-+ x In 1
i o186-18991050-19791840-109
+ 59
:" 11,30-1839
1610-1819 -
1896-1799 .
SUMS 0 to 11 14 4 O 0
£V I I O f events a 4a1 EARLY YER 120 RECENT YEAR w 1979
INI b 34 3.. 4-4.4 - b 4.7
S19 1 68
19816
10 YEAR LISTING of Recurrence Rates R (*/yr), bq Magnitude
M9* ZONE IEMB **
YE mb <3 3-3.4 3.5-3.9 4-4.4 4.5-4.9 5-5.4 5.5-5.9 )5.9YEAR97 .8 .8 .5 .81978-1979 0.608 0.1801960-19?9 0.408 0.186 8.658 8.1081958-1979 8.267 0.06? 8.867 8.8671940-1979 8.275 0.858 0.188 0.0581939-1979 8.288 0.108 8.188 8.8401926-1979 0.233 0.158 0.133 0.0331910-1979 0.200 0.15? 8.157 0.8291900-1979 0.175 0.138 0.138 8.8581890-1979 0.178 0.122 9.122 8.0441980-1979 8.178 0.118 8.120 8.0481070-1979 0.164 0.188 0.118 0.8361960-1979 0.156 0.092 8.18 0.8331850-1979 0.138 0985 8.180 8.0311940-1979 0.129 0.079 0.893 0.8291938-1979 0.120 0.873 8.097 0.0271828-1979 8.113 8.069 0.0f,8 0.825
TOTAL 0 8 18 It 14 4 a 8
10 YEAR LISTI1G of EqrthuQkes bV mqx tH Intenstv
*** ZONE WEMB $*$
t e Io 1 I 111 IV U VI VI: VIII IX X Xt XII~YEAR1970-1979 2 1 3 1
4 1960-1969 2 2 21950-1959 11940-1949 3 21930-1939 2 1 3 11920-1929 1 61910-1919 3 21900-1969 1109-1809 2
16870-1879 1 11860-18691858-18591848- 19491938-18391828-182911810-1819100-18091790-1799SUmS 8 2 13 18 9 5 0 8 a 0 0 8
I of 4vents a 4?EARLY YEAR a 1820 RECENT YEAR a 1979
MIH 1o a II MAX 1o a VI
rgu
4"ONE: West Ermbayment (AREA = 19.4 1613 sq km)
Period of Number Occurrance Exceedence Exceedencemb Range Calculation of Events Prob Prob, Hi Return Perld
(gears) (per gear) (per gear) (wears)'5.9 168 0
5.5-5.9 160 845.0-5.4 128 0
4.5-4.9 118 4 8.036 0.036 284.6-4.4 185 13 0.124 8.166 63.5-3.9 65 11 0.169 8.329 3 (1
3.8-3.4 18 6 0.600 6.929 1mbY data NiPX data Period(years) Weight
4.? 8.036 118 24.2 8.166 185 43.7 0.329 65 43.2 0.929 10 I
log Ni used as the independent variable; converted to Hc and resolved
to the general form, log Nc on mb.1c(cal) mb(cal)lo, Nc a + 'b mb r s(e) (mb=3) (NcE-3) FIT
2.94 -0.93 --0.99 8.02 1.46 6.4 Least Squaresmb=3.951ts(mb)=.16;ts(b)=8.31;obe=5.9(32eurs)
3.29 -1.03 _-0.89 0.86 1.60 6.1 Con'd to 6.1.961rb=3.95;ts(mb)=0.26;ts(b)z6.39;obeu5.8(498yrs)
2.92 -6.92 -1.96 8.01 1.45 6.4 Con'd to bs-.92tb~calxe.05 < 2.92=t(I8%)
2.96 -8.92 -0.9e 8.02 1.53 6.4 Mtd:1t4,4,2,2,1
. Linear fits computed for Nc from NI.mb
zzz data CNI an independent variable:'
- E FIT, log Nc - o b mb
.AH I LS 2.94 -0.93H i .......... b 2.92 -0.92~ 4~....Wt 2.96 -0.92
4 C Pt 3.2% -1.03
0 >
0.
W 0z
SC
--I -I I l I I
i MAGNITUD~E Cmb)
I
OZARK RANDOM
::WTme: 0zRv Date List
Year .ioDa M- 0 YeaY.foDa M- I Yer.MoDa M- I Year.NoDa N- #8 1979. 912 a- 00 8 1977. 1 3 a- 08 1977. I 3 1- 1 1976.1213 2- 10 1975. 824 0- 80 0 1975. 824 0- 8 1974. 811 2- 2 1973. 112 1- 2
1972. 6 9 1- 3 1978. ? 6 1- 4 1970. 2 5 1- 5 S 1970. 2 5 1- 61970. 2 5 1-, 7 1969. 120 1- 8 1968. 331 2- 3 1967. 825 1- 91967. 721, 3-, I 1966. 226 2- 4 t 1966. 213 1- 10 $ 1966. 213 2- 51965.129 2- 6 1965.11 4 2- 7 * 1965.11 3 1- It * 1965.102 4- 11965. 3 6 3- 2 1964. 924 1- 12 1963. 7 8 1- 13" 1956.1125 4- 21955. 411 1- 14 t 1955. 4 9 4- 3 1949. 6 8 1- 15 1946.11 ? 1- 161946.10.? 3- 3 1945. 115 2- 8 1944. 925 3- 4 1944. 1 ? 2- 91942. 329 2- H1 1939.1123 4- 4 1938. 116 1- 17 193?. 318 1- 181934. 5 5 2- 11 1934. 417 1- 19 1933. 8 3 2- 12 1933. 713 1- 201929 26 2-13 1921.18 1 3- 5 191?. 4 9 5- 1 * 1917. 4 9 2- 141916. 2 7 1- 21 1915. 2 5 2- 15 1989.1022 2- 16 1987. 7 4 2- 171903.11 3 2- 10 1903. 2 8 4- 5 1884. 215 1- 22 1882. 728 3- 61819. 9 2 3- 7 1795. 1 8 3- 8
Zor e: OZPf( Recurrence List
# P T T s(T) R 0 P T T s(T) R(yr) 4yrp (do) (do' (0/ur) (yr) (yr) (do) (do) (#/ur)
RANGE tmb: 3.8-3.41 1 3 3 1092 8.334 2 7 3 12?2 0.28?3 8 3 920 176 8.39? 4 9 2 866 183 0.4225 10 2 123 212 0.505 6 11 2 666 228 0.5487 12 2 644 233 0.567 8 15 2 697 226 0,5249 16 2 669 221 8.546 18 25 2 983 209 8.404
11 33 3 1101 213 8.332 12 42 3 1277 235 9.28613 43 3 1202 239 8.304 14 46 3 1192 241 .30615 46 3 1131 23? 3.323 16 64 4 1458 261 0.25117 96 6 2068 362 0.177
RANGE mb: 3.5-3.91 3 3 1113 0.328 2 5 3 984 9.3713 12 4 1431 230 8.255 4 14 3 1264 193 9.2895 14 3 1027 184 0.356 6 14 2 862 205 0.4247 35 5 1824 328 0.288 8 36 4 1643 339 0.2229 38 4 1532 329 8.238 18 46 5 1667 331 0.219
11 46 4 1541 328 0.237 12 51 4 1548 311 8.23613 65 5 1823 323 0.289 14 70 5 1831 331 0.19915 72 5 1765 338 0.207 16 76 5 1739 326 8.218
RANGE mb: 4.0-4.41 12 12 4546 8.888 2 15 7 2707 a.1353 33 11 4046 951 0,899
"" one: OZPI" Recurrence List
p T s(T R # P T T s(TI R
gr 'yr, lyr) da (do) 'u (r) (yr) (do) (do) (/0Yr)4 35 9 3228 823 0.1135 58 12 4255 766 0.086 6 97 16 5931 1122 0.862, 160 23 8366 1984 0.844 8 185 23 8445 2280 0.843
5 RANGE mb: 4.5-4.91 14 14 5185 0.070 2 23 12 4218 8.0873 25 8 3811 1089 8.121 4 40 10 3662 921 8.1835 77 15 561? 1071 0.865
RANGE mb: 5.0-5.41 63 15 5617 8.865
71
A
III 0 0
so,
o
00 / oe4 4
N L L
4 C0 + + S+
V .
4 +
N) 4+ .0 0X 4+44 w
+. 4 (L
.4L 4 +L. 4 ."L 3. 4 3..-3.94-.44.5-.95- .4.-5.9 4 ,9
cwa b9l-i 4 se s e I + a:!4- 190-43 CD
1920-192941N 4I 110 YEAP LISTING of Earthauakes bv Nogtiitude
~**S ZONE OZRK *
gib -:3 3-3.4 3.5-3.9 4-4.4 4.5-4.9 5-5.4 5.5-5.9 >5.9YEAR
1910-1979 5 21960-1969 4 4 2 1195-1959 11940-1949 1 3 21938-1939 4 2 11920-1929 1 11918-1919 1 1 11900-1909 3 1SU- 1899
1966-10691 - ee-159
g 1846-18491939-19391020- 10291618-18191888- 16891798-1799 1SUMS a 17 16 8 5 1 a
I of events a 47EARLY YEAR a 1795 RECENT YEAR - 1977
MIN mb m 3.0 HX mb - 5.0
79
10 YEAR LISTING of Recurrence Rate, R (6-her), bw Malnitude
** ZONE OZRK *$$
iib (3 3-3.4 3.5-3.9 4-4.4 4.5-4.9 5-5.4 5.5-5.9 >5.9YEAR
1970-1979 0.500 0.2881960-1979 0.459 0.386 8.108 0.958
1956-1979 0.333 0.288 0.06? 0.1061946-1979 0.275 0.225 0.180 0.0751938-1979 0.38 0.226 08o 0.0881928"1979 0.250 9.209 0.083 0.0671910-1979 0.229 0.186 8.071 0.057 8.8141980-1979 0.200 0.209 0.063 9.063 8.8131690-1979 0.178 8.178 8.056 8.056 0.011188-1979 0.176 8.168 0.060 0.650 9.8101978-1979 0.155 8.145 8.055 6.045 0.0991668-1979 0.142 0.133 8.050 6.042 9.0681850-1979 8.131 0.123 0.046 0.38 8.0981848-1979 0.121 0.114 0.043 0.036 0,0071838-1979 0.113 0.18? 9.04 80.833 0.071029-1979 0.106 8.108 8.038 0.831 0.086
TOTAL 0 a 17 16 6 5 1 a 0
10 YEAR LISTING of Eorthquakes bg Max MM Ihtan~StY
1*1 ZONE OZRK 4$
to 1 11 111 IV u u! ulI Vill IX X XI X1I4 YEAR
1970-1979 2 2 2 11960-1969 5 4 21958-1959 1 21948-1949 1 4 11930-1939 4 2 11920-1929 21910-1919 1 1 11900-1969 2 1 11890-1699l886-1889 1 11876- 18791060-18691858-18591840-18491030-1839. 1820-1829
1819-1819 11988-18991798-1799 1SUmS 0 3 12 18 ? 7 0 0 a 8 0 0
* of events a 4?EARLY YEAR - 1795 RECENT YEAR a 19?7
"IN to a It MAX t0 a VI
ZONE: Ozark Randomq (AREA * 22.3 1t3 sq kn)Period of Number Occurrance Exceedence Exceedence
uk. Range Calculation of Events Prob Prob, Hi Return Per'd(Wears) (per year) (per vear) (Wears)
5.9 160 05.5-5.9 160 05.0-5.4 120 1 0.008 0.808 1204.5-4.9 lee 5 9.050 8.058 174.0-4.4 18 6 8.860 0.11 83.5-3.9 55 12 8.218 8.337 33.0-3.4 le 5 0.580 0.837 1
mb,'Y data HX data Period( ears) Weight5.2 0.008 126 24.7 e.058 1ee 24.2 0.118 too 43.? 0.337 55 43.2 0.837 1e I
log Ni used as the independent variable; converted to Nc and resolvedto the senernl form, log Hc on mb.
Nc(cal) mb(cal)log Nc- a + b mb r s(e) (mbx3' (HcuE-3) FIT
3.12 -8.98 -8.98 0.03. 1.47 6.2 Least Squaresb=4.20; ts(mb)a'. 1?; ts(b)0.25;obe=5.?(3900rs)
3.45 -1.08 .-0.90 0.08. 1.65 6.0 Con'd to 6,.081Smbe4.201 ts(etb)=0. 19; ts(b)=0. 28; obex5.6(39Oyrs)
2.88 -8.92 1.32 6.4 Con'd to b=-.92: i:t(b)cal-e.60 2.35-t(ie0 )
3.21 -1.0 -0.98 0.82 1.57 6.2 Ntd: l4,4,2,2,1
too-Linear fit. computed for Nc from NI.rb
Z data (NI an Independent vcrloble>
FIT, Iog N - a- b mb
0 FLS 3.12 -0.26
H w b 2.68 -8.02.......... wt 3.21 -1.08
4 C - Pt 3.45 -1.8
0>y 0e
L
w0
U C +1x I0 .
,Al Z 0.""
w II "
U c l / o m u t d * b e fo r r f t
3 4 S 6 78
MAGNITUDE Cmb)
I
NEMAHA
Zone: 14EIA Date List
Year.oo M- 0 Year.HoDa N- 0 Year.NoDa M- # Year.Noe - 01969. 638 1- 1 1948. 4 2 2- 1 1935. 322 2- 2 1935. 3 1 5- 14 1935. 3 1 1- 2 0 1934.11 7 e- 09 1929.12 ? 3- 1 1929.1923 1- 3t 1929.1021 3- 2 1929. 923 3- 3 * 1929. 923 3- 4 1919. 726 1- 4* 1919. 726 2- 3 1919. 526 3- 5 1986. 123 1- 5 * 1986. 123 1- 6* 1986. 119 1- 7 * 1906. 115 2- 4 * 1986. 114 1- 8 $ 1986. 1 8 1- 9*1906. 1 81l- 10 1986. 1 86- 1 * 1906. 181- 11 *196. 1 B l- 121875.12 9 1- 13 1867. 428 2- 5 * 1867. 424 5- 2
'one: tHENA Recurrence List
K # P T T s R P T T (T) R(yrl (wr) (do) (do) (0/yr) (yr) (yr) (da) (do) (e 'mr)
' RANGE mb: 3.0-3.4
1 11 11 3836 8.895 2 114 52 19894 0.19. RANGE mb: 3.5-3.9
1 3,? 32 11595 0.032 2 45 22 8178 0.045;3 68 20 7358 2247 0.050 4 ;74 19 6753 2163 0.054S- 5 113 23 8231 1876 0.044
.RANGE mb: 4.0-4.4S1 50 50t 18286 0.020 2 56 25 9167 0.040S3 50 17 6120 6338 8.960 4 61 15 553,4 5892 0.066SRANGE emb: 3.0-5.4' 1 45 45 16376 0.022 2 113 56 29579 0.018
_'t I
W 'I
apey
I-n I t ...
-0 0
CD .0 .0 A
!z ""# I~
4 >
Ii'
' x I I
0 0D
1N I VH H
2 " 0 91, 0- 0!fl .I
c " .N C I
10 YEAP LISTING of Earthquokes bw Magnitude
$$$ ZONE HEMA $$
RMb *.3 3-3.4 3.5-3.9 4-4.4 4.5-4.9 5-5.4 5.5-5.9 *5.9YEAR
1970-19791960-1969 11950-19591940-19491930-19391920-1929 31919-1919 1 11900-1989" 1890-18991800e-1869
1870-18791860-1169 1 I1050-18591840-18491830-16391828-18291810-1819100-18091790-1799
SUNS 0 2 5 4 a 2 0 8I of events a 13EARLY YEAR a 1867 RECENT YEAR a 1969
MNIN uba 3.0 MAX mb n 5.3
10 YEAR LISTING of Recurrence Rate, R (#/wr) bl MNagnitude
*$$ ZONE HEMA $$
YEAR fib .3 3-3.4 3.5-3.9 4-4.4 4.5-4.9 5-5.4 5.5-5.9 )5.9
1970-19791960-1979 0.0581950-1979 0.0331940-1979 0.025 0.0251930-1979 0.020 0.040 0.0201920-1979 0.017 0.033 0.050 8.0171910-1979 0.014 0.043 0.057 0.0141900-1979 0.013 0.050 0.050 0.0131890-1979 0.011 0.044 0.044 0.01!1080-1979 0.018 0.040 0.040 0.0101870-1979 0.018 0.036 8.036 8.0891860-1979 0.017 0.042 0.033 0.0171050-1979 8.015 0.038 0.031 0.0151840-1979 8.014 0.036 0.029 0.014
( 1830-1979 0.013 0.033 0.027 0.0131820-1979 0.013 0.031 0.825 0.013
TOTAL # 0 2 5 4 0 2 0 0
10 'EAR LISTING of Earthquakes by max NM Intensity
110 ZONE NENR $$$
YEAR o I II IU U V I VIl VIII IX X XI XII
1970-19791960-19691950-19591940-1949 11936-1939 I1920-1929 31910-1919 21900-1909 11890-18991888-18691870:1879
1850-10591849-18491830-10391820-18291810- 1819
1790-1799SUNS 0 0 2 6 3 a 2 0 a 6 0
I of events a 13EARLY YEAR u 1867 RECEHY YEAR 969
MIN lo w III MAX 1 - UII
,2i
NIZONE: Nemiaha (AREA 25.1 1013 sq km)
Per iod of Number Occurraice Exceedence Exceedencemb Range Calculation of Events Prob Prob, Hi Return Per'd
(gearsN (per :gear) (per gear) (gears)> 5,.9 168 05.9 0
5.0-5.4 12 2 8.017 8.017 684.5-4.9 102 0.888 8.017 684.0-4.4 Be 4 0.10513 8.067 15
3.5-3.9 60 2 0.033 g, 181 to3.0-3.4 0 8
tib)Y data NiPX data Period(gears) Weight, 5.2 0.017 120 2
-!4.7 ? .017 1813 24.2 0.86? 8e 43.? 0.108 60 4
log Hi used as the independent variablel ccnverted to Nc and resolvedto the general form, lo Nc on mb.
tic (cal) mb(cal)lov 10 Hc= a + b mb r s(e) (mtb=3) (No=E-3) FIT1.66 -0.67 _-0.94 0.10_ 0.45 7.0 Least Squares
mb=4.45t ts(lmb)=8.41 ;ts(b)=1. 16;obe=6.6(5689rs)H2.58 -0.91 _-0.69 0.25- .69 6.1 Cond to 6.11.001
rib=4.45; ts(rmb)=0.50; ts(b)=t.43;obe=6.4(18489rs)
2.64 -0.92 -0.68 8.25 8.75 6.1 Con'd to b--.92t(blical=(,63 (2.92=t(t8%)
1.63 -8.66 -8.95 8.06 e.45 7.8 Itd:1s4,4,2#2o1
*Zore N.lmoI~o
I 0''a Linear fia compwted for Nc from Nimeo
zdotc, (Ni as independent aibe
> FIT: Ioa Nc - b mb
H I LS 1.66 -0 07A .. ..... b 2.64 -0.92H
in.......... wt 1.63 -0 66
4 C" T 2. 8 -P 91
0 >
0 'L
Ut.z
U C
ox 0J 0. T! ,
TZ 0 T ,,
iL Z1 ompAtwd abs f'or fit
-T0-- I -40 event I I f It
, MAGNITUDE Cmb)
t ' 77
CENTRAL US RANDOM
Zone: cUe. Date List
"eot. loDa H- # Year.HoDa M- # Year.MoDa H- 0 Yeer.HoDa ?- M1918.1015 4- 5 1918. ? 1 2- 31 0 1917. 125 0- 0B 1916. 1 7 2- 321913.1111 2- 33 1913.1016 2- 34 1913. 6 9 2- 35 1912. I 2 4- 61911. 228 2- 36 1909.1822 1- 56 $ 1969.1822 3- 16 1909. 927 5- 1
1 1989. 922 3- 17 1909. 816 3- 18 1909. 718 5- 2 1988.1112 2- 371987.1218,2, 38 1987. 130 3- 19 5 1987. 129 3- 28 1986.1123 1- 571906. 81312- 39 ' 1986. 5 9 2- 48 * 1986. 5 8 2- 41 1986. 3 6 2- 42
4 1996. 223 1--S0 1985. 822 1- 59 1905. 413 3- 21 1983.1211 1- 601903.112 - 61, 1903. 928 2- 43 1903. 31? 2- 44 903. 113 1- 621902. 124 4, 71 1981. 1 3 3- 22 1899.12 1 2- 4r 109. 329 1- 631897.12 2-4' 8 1895. 72? 2- 46 $ 1895. 719 3- 23 1894. 718 1- 641889. 6 6"2i - 47'' 186. 013 2- 48 1886. 3 1 2- 49 1885.1226 1- 65
S185. 2210 t- 66 1884. 331 1- 67 1883.1114 2- 58 1892.1115 2- 511G82.102, 1.' 691* 1882.1815 3- 24 * 1882.1014 3- 25 1882. 92? 4- 91081. 527 4 - 10 * 1881. 519 1- 69 1888.1138 1- 78 1877. 6 3 1- 71
~'1875.11 8 3~- 26 1872, 7 8 2-52 1871. 725 2- 53 1869. 228 3- 271e54, 38 2Z- 54 1 1854. 228 3-28 1858. 4 4 3- 29 1843. 9 9 3- 381843. 216 3- 31 1934.1128 3- 32 1829. 5 0 1- 72 182?. 814 1- 73
f*1827. 67 4-I 11 1827. 86 4- 12 1827. 75 4- 13 1919. 917 2-55S 1819. 916 2- 56 1818. 411 2- 5?
!
Zot.e: cUs Date List
Yeor .io D I- 0 Yd4r.HoDo H- 0 Year.MoD4 N- 0 Year.hoD - 00 1979.1811 8- 80 1978. 928 1- 1 8 1978. 216 0- 09 1977. 617 1- 20 19?7. 228 0- 080 1976. 613 0- 90 1976. 415 1- 3 * 1976. 4 0 1- 40 1974.1213 0- 80 0 1974.1125 8- 0 8 1974. 822 8- 0S 1974. 6 5 2- 1* 1974. 6 4 2- 2 * 1974. 6 4 2- 3 e 1974. 4 5 0- 80 0 194. 327 9- 9B8 19'3. 418 0- 80 1973. 1 7 !- 5 1972. 914 3- 1 1968.1211 1- 60 196?. 8 5 0- 88 1966.12 6 1- 7 1965. 214 1- 8 1963.1214 1- 9t 1963.12 5 1- 10 961.1225 2- 4 * 1961.1225 2- 5 1961. 9 9 2- 6
1959. 812 4- 1 4 1959. 812 3- 2 1959. 1 6 1- 11 1957. 423 3- 31956. 9 9 2- 7 1956. 313 2- 9 1953. 911 4- 2 1952. 1 7 1- 121951. 919 2- 9 1958. 916 2- 18 1950. 2 8 3- 4 1949. 826 1- 131949. 811 1- 14 1948. 420 2- 11 1947. 629 4- 3 1945. 521 2- 121945. 32? 1- 15 1943. 6 8 2- 13 1943. 524 1- 16 * 1943. 529 1- 171943. 410 2- 14 t 1943. 413 2- 15 1942.1227 1- 18 1942.1117 1- 1941942.1117 2- 16 1942. 3 1 3- 5 1942. 130 1- 29 * 1942. 129 1- 21
t 1942. 123 1- 22 * 1942. 114 1- 23 0 1942. 914 0- 9 1941.1115 1- 241941. 1 8 1- 25 1940. 527 I- 26 1940. 1 8 1- 27 1939.1124 1- 281939. 624 1- 29 * 1939. 624 2- 1? S 1939. 624 1- 39 1937.1816 1- 311937. 8 5 1- 32 1937. 629 1- 33 1936.1225 1- 34 * 1936.1225 1- 351935.1029 1- 36 1935. 226 1- 37 1935. 130 1- 38 1935. 1 5 3- 6
$ 1935. 1 5 1- 39 1934.1112 4- 4 S 1934.1029 2- 18 1933.1116 2- 191931.1217 1- 40 1931.1127 1- 41 1931. 8 9 3- ? S 1931. 8 9 1- 42
$ 1931. 8 9 1- 43 1931. 1 5 3- 8 * 1930.1223 2- 20 1930. 8 8 2- 211930. 528 1- 44 1928. 317 1- 45 1 1920. 3 6 1- 46 1928. 123 2- 221927. 318 3- 9 1925. 713 3- 10 * 1925. 7 8 2- 23 1925. 4 4 1- 471925. 127 2- 24 1923.1128 1- 48 1923.11 9 3- 11 1923. 327 2- 251923. 3 8 2- 26 1922. 410 1- 49 S 1922. 329 2- 27 1921.18 9 2- 28
* 1921.10 9 1- 50 1921. 921 1- 51 * 1921. 9 Fi 1- 12 5 1921. 9 8 1- 52S 1921. 9 2 1- 53 4 1921. 9 2 1- 54 1921. '.44 3- 13 1928.18 3 2- 29
1920. 5 7 2- 3j * 1928. 5 1 3- 14 * 1920. 1 1- 55 1920. 228 3- 15
78
,ne: cUS Recurrence List
0 P T T s(T) R * P T T s(T) R, r > yr d (da (do ~) (WO) (WO) (4a (do) (#/Vr)
RA4GE Mb: 3.0-3.41 1 1 467 0.782 2 3 1 464 0.7883 4 1 452 8 0.809 4 4 1 341 68 1.8735 7 1 51e 63 0.716 6 11 2 673 108 0.5437 13 2 682 124 0.536 8 15 2 679 129 0.5389 16 2 651 127 0.561 10 21 2 766 138 0.477
11 29 3 929 170 8.393 12 38 3 924 187 0.395 re 13 30 2 854 190 0.428 14 35 2 907 195 0.403
15 37 2 892 197 0.410 16 37 2 845 195 0.4321? 38 2 815 191 0.448 18 38 2 770 186 0.47419 38 2 733 181 0.498 20 39 2 712 176 0.51321 40 2 689 172 0.530 22 40 2 664 168 0.55023 40 2 637 165 0.574 24 42 2 642 162 0.569
f 25 42 2 620 159 0.590 26 43 2 597 157 0.6122? 43 2 592 155 0.628 28 44 2 576 154 0.63429 45 2 565 152 0.647 30 45 1 547 152 0.66831 48 2 566 150 0.645 32 48 2 549 149 0.66533 50 549 148 0.665 34 52 2 556 14? 0.65735 52 1 541 146 0.675 36 55 2 555 145 0.65837 56 2 554 144 0.668 38 58 2 555 143 0.65839 5 1 546 142 0.669 40 58 1 533 141 0.68641 70 2 625 140 0.584 42 73 2 636 138 0.57543 74 2 627 136 9.582 44 74 2 617 135 0.592
t '1
:.cOne: cUS Recurrence List
0 P T T s(T) R 0 P T T s(T) R•(wr"- (yr) (do) (da) (t/gr> Cyr) (YOWO)( (do) (WSOr
45 76 2 617 133 0.5 2 46 76 2 604 132 0.6 447 77 2 598 131 8.611 48 82 2 622 129 0.58749 85 2 637 128 0,573 58 94 2 687 127 0.53251 95 2 679 126 0.539 52 96 2 673 124 0.54353 99 2 680 123 8.537 54 99 2 670 122 0.54555 103 2 681 121 0.536 56 151 3 983 128 0.37257 152 3 976 134 8.374RANGE mb: 3.5-3.91 6 6 2035 0.179 2 6 3 1918 0.3593 18 4 2193 638 0.167 4 18 5 1672 522 0.2185 23 5 1703 452 0.215 6 24 4 1449 420 8.2527 28 4 1476 391 8.248 8 29 4 1337 378 0.2739 32 4 1286 370 0.284 10 35 3 1264 362 0.289
11 37 3 1214 358 8.301 12 37 3 1118 368 8.32713 37 3 104Z 365 0.350 14 41 3 1057 366 0.34615 45 3 110 362 0.332 16 46 3 1053 368 0.347J 17 49 3 1053 358 0.347 18 49 3 1002 357 0.364
,1 19 52 3 998 355 0.366 20 54 3 995 353 0.36721 55 3 955 353 0.382 22 57 3 942 352 8.38823 5? 2 902 352 8.485 24 58 2 879 353 0.41625 58 2 851 354 0.429 26 59 2 832 356 0.4392? 68 2 807 357 0,453 28 62 2 802 358 0,45529 64 2 886 359 0.453 30 66 2 885 358 0.45431 66 2 780 359 0.468 32 67 2 760 359 0.48133 69 2 762 360 0.479 34 71 2 764 359 0.47835 72 2 752 359 8.486 3f 73 2 745 359 0.491
1! 37 74 2 727 359 6.502
I9
Zor.e: cUS Recurrence ListN P T T s(T> R # P T T s(T) q,Yr, lvr') (do) (do> (0/wr) (Yr) (vr) (do) (do) (*,Wr)38 74 ' 710 359 0.51539 76 714 359 8.511 48 77 2 781 359 8.52141 80 2 713 358 8.512 42 84 2 734 357 8.49743 91 2 769 355 0.475 44 93 2 775 353 8.47145 94 2 762 351 8.488 46 96 2 763 349 0.47947 97 2 755 347 0.484 48 187 2 818 345 8.44749 180 2 888 342 0.452 58 126 3 919 339 8.39751 163 3 1148 336 e.318 52 162 3 1136 333 0.322
RANGE rb: 4.8-4.41 7 7 2664 0.137 2 23 1, 4144 88883 38 18 3639 752 0.180 4 38 9 3455 614 8.1865 45 9 3286 539 0.111 6 48 8 2946 522 8.1247 49 7 2556 564 8,143 8 53 7 2418 599 0.1529 54 6 2218 648 8.165 10 56 6 2851 679 0.178'4 11 58 5 1936 711 0.189 12 59 5 1798 743 8.204
N 13 68 5 1676 772 0.218 14 68 4 1561 799 8.23415 71 5 1789 884 8.214 16 78 4 1694 811 8.22817 78 4 1512 819 0.242 18 73 4 1488 825 8.24719 73 4 1482 832 0.261 28 75 4 1365 837 8.26821 79 4 1374 839 0.266 22 84 4 1482 837 8.26123 97 4 1544 829 8.237 24 104 4 1585 828 8.23825 111 4 1628 889 8.226 26 126 5 1768 796 8.28727 130 5 1755 783 e.208 28 136 5 1779 771 0.28529 137 5 1724 768 8.212 38 145 5 1767 748 8.28?RANGE mb: 4.5-4.91 28 28 7446 8.049
M Zore: cUS Recurrence List
N P T T s(TD R 0 p T T s(T) R(9r) <vr) (do) (do) (#190 (9r) (yr) (do) (do) (0/yr)2 26 13 4804 0.8763 33 11 3958 1828 8.092 4 45 11 4121 1618 8.0895 61 12 4471 1428 0.882 6 68 11 4139 1320 6.0887 78 11 4066 1239 0.898 H 82 18 3747 1197 0.8979 97 11 3947 1140 0.893 11 99 18 3691 1114 0.19111 152 14 5868 1073 8.872 12 152 13 4641 1824 0.879
RANGE mb: 5.0-5.41 78 70 25662 0.814 2 78 35 t?867 8.028
QA
tt
44 o )0 Q 1
0 0
00 0-''44 0
0 4+ L
"U 4dq/,RN UHI 4eo 01 0l
-00
v 4
0 X
N 4~ 4 n+ 4x +i~ H H
4. 1 1
9MV2 39 0s$ 91 49 a.+ 4
-30
10 'EAR LISTING of Earthquake, by Magnitude
t$* ZONE cUS t$*
rib 3 3-3.4 3.5-3.9 4-4.4 4.5-4.9 5-5.4 5.5-5.9 >5.9YEAR
1978-1979 5 21968-1969 4 21950-1959 2 4 2 21940-1949 11 5 1 11930-1939 it 5 3 11928-1929 7 9 7
1910-1919 6 21988-1909 7 7 7 1 21998-1899 2 2 1 1188-1889 5 5 1 21870-1879 1 2 11868-1e69 11858-1859 1 21949-1849 21838-1839 11828-1829 2 21810-1819 21898-16991790-1799sums a 5? 52 38 12 2 a a
of events a 153
EARLY YEAR a 1810 RECENT YEAR 1 1978"IH mb* 3. MAX ,b* 5.3
18 YEHP LISTING of Recurrence Rates R (#/yr), bw Hlonitude
#8$ ZONE cUS St*
rb .:3 3-3.4 3.5-3.9 4-4.4 4.5-4.9 5-5.4 5.5-5.9 >5.9YEAR
1970-1979 0.588 0.208 0.1801968-1979 0.458 0.280 0.8581958-1979 0.36? 0.267 0.188 0.8671940-1979 0.550 0.325 8.10 0.8751930-1979 0.660 0.360 0.148 8.0881920-1979 0.66? 0.458 0,233 8.06?1910-1979 0.571 8.471 8.288 0.886190-1979 0.588 0.588 0.263 0.088 0.8251890-1979 8.544 0.467 0.244 0.089 0.0221088-1979 0.548 8.478 0.230 8.100 0.0281078-1979 0.588 8.445 0.218 0.891 8.0191068-1979 0.458 0.408 0.288 8.083 8.81?1050-1979 0.4a3 8.?.85 0.280 8.077 0.015A848-1979 0.393 8.357 0.207 0.071 0.0141830-1979 0.367 0.333 0.208 0.067 0.0131028-1979 0.356 0.313 8.188 0.075 0.013
TOTAL 1 0 57 58 38 12 2 8 0
10 YEAR LIST1NC of Earthquakes bw max MM Intensity
*is ZONE cUS $$$
1o I1 11 lU U UI Ull UllI IX X XI XIIYEAR1970- 1 ; 3 4
1960-1969 3 1 21958-1959 3 4 1 21948-1949 2 9 5 1 I1930-1939 2 9 6 2 11928-1929 3 8 8 3 11910-1919 2 4 1 11908-1989 2 5 8 6 1 21890-1899 2 3 1180-1889 1 5 6 11870-1879 2 1 11868-1869 11850-1859 1 21840-1849 41638-1839 11820-1829 2 1 118-1819 2
1860-18891790-1799SUNS 0 18 51 52 25 13 2 a a a 8 0
* of events a 153EARLY YEAR a 1838 RECENT YEAR a 1978
MIH Io a 11 MAX lo a UII
81
ZONE: central U. S. (AREA x 544.8 10t3 sq km)
Period of Number Occurrance Exceedence Exceedencemb Pange Calculation of Events Prob Probv Ni Return Perld
(years) (per year) (per year) (years). 5.9 168 0
5.5-5.9 160 a5.0-5.4 128 2 8.?17 0.817 604.5-4.9 10 1o 0.108 0.117 94.0-4.4 80 21 8.263 0.379 33.5-3.9 5o 18 0.360 0.7393.0-3.4 8 8
"ONE: central U. S. (AREA = -100.0 18t3 sq km)
uibpY data NiX data Period(years) Welht5.2 0.803 128 24.7 0.021 10 24.2 0.0878 88 43.? 0.136 50 4
log Ni used as the independent variable; converted to Nc and resolvedto the general forep log Nc on rib.Nc (col m b(calI)
I os Nc" a + b mb r s(e) (nb=3) (Hc=E-3) FIT3.43 -1.15 --0.97 0.04 0.98 5.6 Least Squares4 mb=4.45 ts(mb)=0.26; ts(b)=0.41;obe=5.3(49eyrs)
2.52 -0.92 0.57 6.0 Con'd to bu-.92. ' t(b)cal-t.62 < 2.92=t(10%.)= ;" 3.28 -1.!,l -0.97 e.e3 0.89 5.7 Mtd:li;4P4,2s2Pl
Z" cord ZnI U. S.
if .-P^ Linear fits comput.rd for Nc from Nimb..data (NI o IndependentL variable)
-" FIT I oo Nc - a b mb
H I LS 3.43 -I.iS
H I b 2.S2 -0.02........ w. 3.28 -1.11
0 >
0. I-
"w 0
U .
z
00
Wd +
~x I
0 +
011
H *1 (!) I08 'eci *e. for fi *
1 3 4 S 7 8
- MAGNITUDE Cmb)
82
-7;z7677TMI Z=
APPENDIX C
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83
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