Earthrise - 50 years on toward collapse

• In the last 50 years global natural resource extraction has nearly quadrupled, atmosphericgreenhouse gases have more than doubled.

• Astonishingly the next 35 years of resource extraction and fossil fuel emissions are projectedto equal the past 300,000 years, the time of ourH. sapiens species - and it won’t stop there. Social and economic collapse is inevitable and imminent.

• To stop collapse cut consumption now,extractions 3.6%, CO2 emissions 11.0% per year by law (Very High Developed nations, US, EU, etc.)

For a half-century we havecompletely failed to stop ourdestruction of nature from which humans, all our products, and all life are made.

CUT CONSUMPTION NOW Extractions 3.6% Emissions 11.0%CO2 - cut per yearnow by lawCO2 - cut per year

law

COLLAPSE stopped

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The people rule, I do what they want.

For 50 years we’ve had the science to stop collapse, use it now.

back to the garden

back to the garden

Global collapse stopped: what you can do Birgit van Munster, Michael Wadleigh, 28 Feb 2019, CollapseStopped@gmail.com +44 7527 111196 “Collapse of our civilizations and the extinction of much of the natural world is on the horizon”, Sir David Attenborough voicing the conclusion of eminent scientists.

Economic reality Social reality Political reality Real reality Humans, all our products and all life are exclusively made from nature; it is our human destruction of nature, the natural world, that is the cause of our civilization collapse. The science essence of the global problem is human-nature, people want products, leaders do what they want including encouraging them to want more products, the inevitable result is collapse. About fifty years ago the global environmental movement to preserve nature began, unfortunately for our children and all life the result has been a half-century of absolute failure: • the cause of climate change, atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, has more than doubled; • the cause of unsustainable development, global natural resource extraction, has nearly quadrupled. About thirty years ago as things worsened all 200 UN countries agreed to act to stop future environmental collapse, but have not; humans continue on today destroying nature, including the climate, at an ever-increasing ferocious rate: • Astonishingly, the next 35 years of natural resource extraction and fossil fuel emissions are projected to equal the past 300,000 years, the entirety of our H. sapiens species existence - and it won’t stop there. Together with 4°C+ global warming the inevitable, imminent result will be global economic and social collapse. By national commitment, for three decades parents and grandparents have promised to “meet the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” (UN 1987). The promise has been ignored, current generations keep on taking evermore nature for themselves, “the present”, catastrophically compromising “future generations”, children, grandchildren, all life. The UN blames governments for inaction, who blame global electorates, parents and grandparents who want evermore products which are made by natural resource extraction and greenhouse gas production. Leaders on the right and left refuse to lead, and will continue to do so unless forced by the people. It must for example be understood that President Obama’s (politically left) Paris emission reduction offer was only about 1/6th of USA responsibility, both Obama’s and President Trump’s (politically right) emission plus extraction-consumption policies guaranteed collapse.

The solution is not the trivial, voluntary, irresponsible actions suggested today for nations and international agreements, or for individuals - “eat less meat, no one-use plastic, don’t fly, take a train” - which ensure collapse. • The solution is national LAWS now which everyone has to obey for adequate cuts in extraction and emissions by responsibility:

After 50 years of no meaningful reduction Very High Developed parents now say: “These cuts are impossibly high!” They should go on to add, “Collapse is inevitable, my child’s future is destroyed”.

• Adequate cuts in extraction-emissions and therefore products are not impossible; science and social media know that billions of years of evolution produced the H. sapiens species for whom happiness and wellbeing is first and foremost humans, activities and nature - not products.

Earth is a closed mass system with no likely, meaningful material imports or exports. Large cuts can be made by “closed mass laws” which are the laws of physics, chemistry, and biology. As Albert Einstein warned, “The laws of man must obey the laws of nature, or man will not survive”. For another 5,000 years of civilizations, preserve nature by forcing the enactment of closed mass science laws now:

Global collapse stopped now, what you can do 1.

Climate Stabilization Objective. Beginning with climate change, humanity’s most destructive unsustainable development, here is the existential Objective agreed by all nations 27 years ago:

Climate Stabilization Objective (UN 1992): “stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level which would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” 1 (Paris Agreement: limit global warming to well below 2°C, preferably 1.5°C) 2.

The graph above shows long-lived greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the cause of climate change; it is from the global atmospheric authority and parent organization of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) 3. State of Climate Objective: complete failure, no meaningful action. Past Objective failure. The 1988 - 2018 graph above shows 30 years of failure: • No stabilization, new destabilization records set every year 3,4,5; • A 47% increase in radiative forcing - the climate warming effect - the average increase was 0.034 w/m2 per year, most recent two year average is 0.044 w/m2, the rate is increasing not decreasing 6 ; • A 1 Watt per square meter radiative forcing increase, 2.1 to 3.1 W/m2 3,6 -

• 1 Watt seems very small but the total for the planet was a 510 trillion Watt force increase, this increase is the equivalent of 600,000 Hiroshima nuclear bomb explosions per day 7, an increase in energy almost impossible to imagine. Present Objective failure. • Atmospheric destabilization already caused 1.1°C global warming in 2017 12 - and it won’t stop here, greenhouse gas emissions are increasing year on year 8,9,10,11; • Current levels of CO2 correspond to an equilibrium climate of 3-5 million years ago, a climate that was 2-3°C warmer, with sea level 10-20 meters higher than now 3. • Atmospheric destabilization is now basically such that exceeding 1.5°C global warming, the preferred Paris limit, can not likely be avoided 4,13,14,15,16 - • Unless greenhouse gases are removed from the atmosphere, which scientists conclude is not feasible and sustainable at the scale required 13,17,18,19,20,21. Projected Objective failure. • With the Paris Agreement fully implemented emissions will increase, not decrease, for at least the next 12 years 4 . • In less than 25 years destabilization will likely be such as to cause dangerous 2°C global warming, the final Paris limit 22,23,24,25. • At current trends by 2100, just 82 years when today’s children will still be alive, destabilization will likely be such as to cause catastrophic 4°C - and it won’t stop there 18,23,24,25. 2.

Sustainable Development Objective. Humanity’s existential Sustainable Development Objective was agreed by all nations 31 years ago:

Sustainable Development Objective (UN 1987) 26: “meet the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” (for natural resources - nature - from which humans and all their products are exclusively made).

The graph above shows global natural resource extractions, the cause of unsustainable development; the graph is from the global science authority, the UN International Resource Panel (IRP) 27, 28. . State of Sustainable Development Objective: complete failure, no meaningful action, collapse inevitable. Past Objective failure. The 1988-2018 graph above shows 30 years of failure: • Natural resource extraction doubled in 1 generation - this rate means a 4 times increase in the next generation, 8 times in the next - which will fatally compromise future generations; • In the past 30 years there was a 120% increase in the extraction of climate-changing fossil fuels, metals, minerals and biomass, from 41 to 91 billion tonnes per year 28; • The average yearly increase was 1.7 billion tonnes, the most recent was 2.3, the rate is increasing not decreasing 28. Present Objective failure. • Recycling tonnes are currently a miniscule 0.6% of extraction tonnes 29; • Resource efficiency is decreasing, -0.8% per year 29, humanity is getting less value from more resources. • Circular economies – with zero non-renewable natural resource extractions – do not exist. • Life: There is an astonishing 60% decline in wildlife populations in just over 40 years, species extinction rates are 100-1,000 times greater than before human pressures; exploding human consumption is the driving force 52; • Modification: more than 87% of the ocean and 77% of land (excl. Antarctica) have been modified by the direct effects of human activities 53; • Soil: about 75 billion tonnes per year of soil is lost forever (in human timescale) 30, 40% of agriculture land upon which humanity depends for survival is now seriously degraded 31; • Water: humans require only a few liters per day - but currently use an astounding 3,795 liters of freshwater per human per day 32, the global rate of increase is not possible to sustain. Projected Objective failure. • 2040s: projected annual natural resource extraction “represents an unsustainable future… a trend that is not in anyway sustainable” (IRP) 29; • 2050s: the next 35 years of natural resource extraction and fossil fuel emissions will equal the past 300,000 years, the time of the H. sapiens species, about 7 teratonnes (used)27, 33, 34, 35, not including freshwater, soil loss, etc. • 2100: extraction in the next 81 years will be more than 3.5 times that of the past 300,000 years 36; • 2100: by UN median population projection the average human will have 1.8 football field (65x100m) of land and freshwater natural resources from which everything to sustain life and happiness must be derived, resources obtained from the sea areas are very small, a few percent. • By 2100: humanity’s average lifetime resource extraction will be the equivalent of stripping off the top 1/5th of a meter from all ice-free land 36,59 - and it won’t stop there - • Combined with 4°C+ global warming, catastrophic natural resource degradation, depletion and destruction will cause food, water and other critically essential shortages resulting in global famines, pandemics, wars, armies of refugees destroying everything.

• After 5,000 years of civilizations the inevitable and imminent result will be nothing less than global economic and social collapse. 3.

Objective responsibility failures, past 30 years, now and projected. Climate Stabilization responsibility failure. • Cumulative emissions are the cause of climate change; in cumulative CO2 emissions per capita UN Very High Developed nations (eg US, EU) cause 70 times more than Low Developed (Nigeria and other African nations), 19 times more than Medium (India), 5 times more than High (China) 8, 37, 38, 39, 40. • In consumption emissions - which take into account imports and exports - Very High cause 32 times more per capita than Low developed, 8 times more than Medium, 2 times more than High 8, 37, 38. Sustainable development responsibility failure. • The 1.2 billion poorest people consume only 1% of Earth’s closed mass natural resources, the 1 billion richest people consume 72% 29. • In material consumption Very High Developed nations consume a totally unsustainable 24 tonnes per capita per year, Low Developed consume 2; Medium consume 5, High consume 16 28,37,38. • There is NO level of income at which natural resource consumption stabilizes 41. Irresponsibility across the political spectrum. • The extractions and emissions from consumption by the Very High Developed - politically left and right - if followed by all of humanity would result in a tenfold increase in annual emissions and more than double yearly extractions, ensuring collapse. • Norway has long been ranked #1 Very High Developed, the average Norwegian’s current lifetime resource consumption is 3.05 million kg, if generalized to humanity there would be an fourfold increase in lifetime extractions 28,37,38, collapse guaranteed. • President Obama’s Paris emission reduction for 2°C is about 1/6th of US responsibility 42; if all nations followed this example, and the consumption extractions of the Obama era, collapse is assured.

4.

Actions sufficient for Objective success with global collapse stopped now. Earth is a closed mass system, sunlight energy enters, but essentially no mass, there are no meaningful material imports or exports to or from Earth - including human emigrations to other celestial bodies - and none are scientifically probable in any century soon, perhaps ever. To avert collapse, to realize humanity’s existential Objectives of Sustainable Development including Climate Stabilization with another 5,000 years of civilizations, laws are required. Voluntary actions have not succeeded in the past and will never succeed - as Albert Einstein warned, “The laws of man must obey the laws of nature, or man will not survive”. The political-economic-social laws of man must obey the physics-chemistry-biology laws of nature, closed mass science laws are required: CLOSED MASS LAWS

• Change from quantity to quality now by law – • Cut a global average of 1.7% extractions and 3.8% emissions per year now, increasing with inaction (see table below for cuts now by responsibility) 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48 , 49; • Extract the fewest possible natural resources; • Make only the very best, cyclical products - not the most /worst / linear including greenhouse gases; • Make products that last the longest, and are shared the most; • Remove dangerous, destructive products including greenhouse gases; • Reduce and remove products by per capita responsibility; • Decrease population, increase laborsaving products; • Increase non-material happiness which is humans, activities and nature not products.

“I like laws, then everyone has to obey, including me!”

 

1900 to 2100, civilization collapse trends �

In the graph above, from 1900 to 2100, in just 200 of H. sapiens’ 300,000 years, population will have increased from 1.7 to 11.2 billion 37, life expectancy from 31 to 83 years 37, average lifetime natural resource extraction from 0.2 to 27.3 trillion tones - an extraordinary 136 times increase - plus global warming from 0°C to 4°C - and it won’t stop there, collapse is inevitable.

All goals depend on 1 goal – 17 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals

To stop collapse humanity must act on the science fact that the 17 UN Sustainable Development “Goals” are not equal; all goals depend on one goal: sustainable extraction-production-consumption of Earth’s closed mass natural resources from which humans and all their products are exclusively made.

In sum - fifty years of failure:

Above are the key WMO and IRP science graphs showing a half-century of absolute failure: • the cause of climate change, atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, has more than doubled; • the cause of unsustainable development, global natural resource extraction, has nearly quadrupled. Thirty-five years of failure ahead:

• It is an extraordinary fact that Homo sapiens’ past 300,000 years of natural resource extractions and fossil fuel emissions will likely be equaled by the next 35 years 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, the next 81 years will be about 3.5 times 300,000 years, and it won’t stop there.

By median, not extreme science projections, by 2100 humanity’s average lifetime natural resource extraction will be the equivalent of stripping of the top 1/5th of a meter from all ice-free land, and it won’t stop there, collapse of civilization ensured 36,59.

“Good news” reports (above left) are everywhere on the remarkable growth of solar and wind energy production, increasing 1,000% in a decade; almost no one reports that this growth seems to have peaked and solar and wind today are less than 1% of energy supply, while coal for example is 27% 55,56,57. For “good news” in stopping global collapse, the two graphs that matter are natural resource global extractions and greenhouse gas atmospheric concentrations.

Of course banning plastic products which don’t last, aren’t shared and are not cyclical should be done, in perspective: per year global natural resource extraction is 91 billion tonnes, greenhouse gas production is 53 billion tonnes, all plastic production is a very small 0.3 billion tonnes, and plastics into oceans are about 0.009 billion tonnes 58,59,.

The above shows that the current standard and ideal for human development will inevitably and imminently result in collapse. Low developed (green) natural resource extraction plus CO2 emissions,

from Low developed consumption are a small 2.9 tonnes per person per year, Very High developed (red) consumption are a huge 37.3 tonnes per person per year 8,28,36,37,38.

�The light above has given continuous illumination for 117 years, 1,000 times longer than the average bulb does - by design 54. Almost no products are made to last 100 years, but nearly all could be. Humanity can extract the least and make the best, lasting, shared, cyclical products and have another 5,000 years of civilizations.�

The closed mass science laws required stop collapse are not arbitrary, of necessity they are used in every manned space mission, in small world thought experiments - and must be on closed mass planet Earth.

Billions of years of evolution produced the H. sapiens species who have only 4 basic physical needs: 0.8 kg of oxygen, 3.9 kg of water and 0.6 kg of dry food (2,200 kcal energy) per day, and maintain a body temperature of 37°C. Human survival-wellbeing-happiness is overwhelmingly DNA hardwired to be found in nature, other humans and activities - not in products made by modifying nature. Moreover, for nearly all of H. sapiens’ 300,000 years, 99% of products were made from other renewable biology, today only 26% of products are renewables - economic and social collapse is assured if this does not change:

Law sum:

To stop global collapse, the solution is human development, wellbeing and happiness based on humans, activities and nature, not on consumption of products made by means of extractions and emissions.

Global collapse stopped now, what you can do

References 1 United Nations, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Article 2 (1992). 2 United nations, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change Paris Agreement (2015).3 World Meteorological Organization Greenhouse Gas Bulletin 13 (2017). 4 UNEP The Emissions Gap Report 2017, United Nations Environment Programme (2017). 5 PBL Tabellen mondiale CO2 en broeikasgasemissions 1990-2016, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (2017). 6 The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI), updated Spring 2018, table 2 (https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/aggi/aggi.html). 7 Increase of 1 W = 1 J / s, earth surface 510.1 trillion m2 , thus increase 1 W / m2 equals 510 TJ / s for total earth surface. Energy content of Hiroshima bomb ‘Little Boy’ is estimated to be equivalent to 63 TJ. Increase of 1 w / m is the equivalent of 510 / 63 = 7.6 ‘little boys’ per second or about 600,000 Hiroshima nuclear bombs per day for earth.8 Le Quéré, C. et al., 2018: Global Carbon Budget 2017. Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 1010333739(10) , 405-448, doi:10.5194/essd-10-405-2018. 9 Global Emissions EDGAR v4.3.2 (2017) 10 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Summary for Policymakers (2018) Global Warming of 1.5°C, Headline statement D1 11 UNFCCC, United Nations Framework Convention Climate Change, Synthesis Report on the Aggregate Effect of Intended National Determined Contributions, an update (2016). 12 World Meteorological Organization, Statement on the state of the global climate 2017 (2017) 13 Rogelj, J. et al. Energy system transformations for limiting end of century warming to below 1.5 °C. Nat. Clim. Change 5, 519–527 (2015). Scenarios to return to a global temperature rise of 1.5 C by 2100 with a 50% probability plus ‘temperature overshoot’ require immediate stringent emission reductions plus an extraordinary 800 [430–1000] GtCO2 negative emissions to be removed from the atmosphere by 2100.

14 Rogelj, J. et al, Mitigation choices impact carbon budget size compatible with low temperature goals. Environ. Res. Lett. 10 (2015) “No scenarios that have a high probability (including >66%) of limiting warming to below the 1.5°C limit during the entire 21st century exist“. 15 IPCC Climate Change Synthesis Report Fifth Assessment, Summary for Policymakers (2014), “Only a limited number of studies provide scenarios that are more likely than not to limit warming to 1.5°C by 2100 (after peaking at higher levels); these scenarios are characterized by concentrations below 430 ppm CO2eq by 2100, and by immediate deep emissions reductions and extensive large scale deployment of Carbon Dioxide Removal (or negative emissions).” “Note that the CO2-eq concentration is estimated to have passed 430 ppm in 2011.” CO2-eq concentration is estimated to be 496 ppm in 2017 (see ref 6) 16 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2018) Global Warming of 1.5°C, Table 2 A 12, 1.5°C pathways are characterized by atmospheric CO2 concentrations of 376 – 385 (median values) ppm. Note that atmospheric concentration of CO2 is estimated to have passed 410 ppm in 2017 (6). 17 Fuss, S. et al, Betting on negative emissions Nat.Clim.Change 4, 850 – 853 (2014). 18 Rogelj J., et al. Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2°C. Nature 534, 631-639 (2016). 19 Victor D. J. et al. Prove Paris was more than paper promises. Nature 548, 25–27 (2017). 20 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Summary for Policymakers (2018) Global Warming of 1.5°C, Headline statement C3 21 Anderson K. & Broderick J. Natural gas and climate change University of Manchester (2017). 20 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, figure SPM2 (2014). “limiting total human-induced warming to less than 2°C relative to the period 1861–1880 with a probability of >66% would require cumulative CO2 emissions from all anthropogenic sources since 1870 to remain below about 2900 GtCO2 (with a range of 2550 to 3150 GtCO2 depending on non-CO2drivers). About 1900 GtCO2 had already been emitted by 2011”. 21 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2018) Global Warming of 1.5°C, Table 2.2. The remaining Carbon budget (including earth feedback systems and historic warming uncertainty) to limit the warming to 2°C (>66% probability) is 1,000 – 1,300 GtCO2 from 1 January 2018 onwards. 22 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, figure SPM2 (2014). “limiting total human-induced warming to less than 2°C relative to the period 1861–1880 with a probability of >66% would require cumulative CO2 emissions from all anthropogenic sources since 1870 to remain below about 2900 GtCO2 (with a range of 2550 to 3150 GtCO2 depending on non-CO2drivers). About 1900 GtCO2 had already been emitted by 2011”. 22 Science Conference Our Common Future Outcome Statement, July 2015. “A two in three probability of holding warming to 2°C or less will require a budget that limits future carbon dioxide emissions to about 900 billion tons, roughly 20 times annual emissions in 2014”. 23 Stocker, T.F et al. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2013). 24 Wuebbles, D. J. et al. Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Vol. I U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington DC, USA (2017). 25 Matthews, H. D., Zickfeld, K., Knutti, R. & Allen, M.R. Focus on cumulative emissions, global carbon budgets and the implications for climate mitigation targets. Environ. Res. Lett. 13 010201 (2018). 26 World Commission on Environment and Development. Our Common Future. (Oxford Univ. Press, 1987) 27 United Nations Environment Programme, International Resource Panel. Assessing Global resource Use (2017), (figure 2.2 Global material extraction in four main material categories, 1970–2017, million tonnes, adapted).

28 United Nations Environment International Resource Panel Global Material Flows database (2018). 29 United Nations Environment Programme, International Resource Panel. Decoupling natural resource use and environmental impacts from economic growth. (2011). 30 Zuazo, V. and C. Pleguezuelo, Soil-erosion and runoff prevention by plant covers: a review. (2009) 31 Sample, I. Global food crisis looms as climate change and population growth strip fertile land. (2007) 32 Hoekstra, A.Y. & Mekonnen, M.M. (2012) 'The water footprint of humanity’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109(9): 3232–3237. 33 Krausmann, F. et all, The global socio-metabolic transition: past and present metabolic profiles and their future trajectories. Journal of Industrial Ecology 12(5-6), 637-656 (2009) Supplementary material, table S3 for population estimates. 34 Krausmann, F. The global metabolic transition: a historical overview. Socio Ecology Working paper 131. (2011) for material extraction estimates 35 Krausmann, F. et all. Global socio-economic material stock rise 23-fold over the 20th century and required half of annual resource use. www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1613773114 (2017) 36 Global material resource extraction projected forwards on per capita trends of biomass, fossil fuel, metal ores and non-metal mineral extractions (UNEP material flows database 2018), adjusted for development level growth rates (UNDP 2018 Human Development Statistical Update), medium population estimates (UN World Population Prospects, 2017 revision). 37 United Nations World Population Prospects 2017 Revision (medium estimate) (2017). 38 United Nations Development Programme, 2018 Human Development Statistical Update (2018) 39 World Resources Institute CAIT Climate Analysis Indicators Tool, Climate Data Explorer (2015). 40 Boden T. A. & Andres R. J. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) National Fossil Fuels CO2 emissions 1751-2014 (2017). 41 United Nations Environmental Programme, International Resource Panel Global Material Flows and Resource Productivity (2016). 42 Civil Society Equity Review (2017) Equity and the Ambition Ratchet Towards a meaningful 2018 Facilitative Dialogue 43 Green F. The logic of fossil fuel bans, Nature Climate Change 8 (2018). 44 Not exceeding the IPCC emission limit of 1,000 GtCO2 by 2011, without relying on negative emissions, and with intergenerational equity requires an average global emission reduction rate of about 5.7% per year). 45 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2018) Global Warming of 1.5°C, headline statement C1: “In model pathways with no or limited overshoot of 1.5°C, global net anthropogenic CO2 emissions decline by about 45% from 2010 levels by 2030”. With 2018 CO2 emission estimated at 42 GtCO2, this requires an average annual reduction of 5.6%, starting now, increasing with inaction. 46 Anderson, K. et al, Radical emission reductions, Carbon Management 5(4), 321-323 (2014). “Even excluding fairness principles, accepting lower probabilities of staying below 2°C and assuming net zero emissions within this century, global mitigation rates still need to be around 5% per year when accounting for the need to turn around growing emissions.” 47 United Nations Framework Convention Climate Change, Report on the Structured Expert Dialogue on the 2013-2015 review, 31. “Regarding scenarios corresponding to RCP2.6, .. the decarbonization rate should be … an average of 4.5% for 2010-2050.” 48 Gasser, T. et al, Negative emissions physically needed to keep global warming below 2°C Nature Communications DOI:10.1038/ncomms8958 (2015). “In our best case illustrative assumption of conventional mitigation (fossil fuel emission reduction of 5% per year starting in 2015) negative emissions of 0.5-3GtC per year and a storage capacity of 50-250 GtC are required.”

49 Anderson, K. Duality in Climate Science, Nature Geoscience doi:10.1038/ngeo2559 (2015) “The IPCC’s own 1,000 GtCO2 carbon budget for a “likely” chance of 2°C, requires global reductions in emissions from energy of at least 10% per year by 2025, with complete cessation of all carbon dioxide emissions from the energy system by 2050.” 50 IPCC AR5 SYR Emission limit of 2900 GtCO2 (>66% probability to limit warming to 2 ˚C with intergenerational and international equity, no negative emissions, no temperature overshoot.) This will reduce CO2 emissions from the consumption of goods and services by 85 % by 2050. 51 UNEP International Resource Panel recommendation to limit per capita natural resource extraction to 7 ton / year by 2050 to turn towards sustainable use of limited natural resources upon which we all depend for all time. This will reduce total global extractions with 25% by 2050 compared to today. 52 WWF. 2018. Living Planet Report - 2018: Aiming Higher. Grooten, M. and Almond, R.E.A.(Eds). WWF, Gland, Switzerland. 53 Watson J.E.M. et al. Protecting the last of the wild, Nature 563, 27-30 (2018) 54 http://www.centennialbulb.org/ 55 International Energy Agency Renewables (2017) 56 International Energy Agency, Renewables (2018) 57 International Energy Agency, Key World Energy Statistics (2018) 58 Geyer et al, Production, use and fate of all plastics ever made. Sci. Adv. (2017) 59 Report on the proposal for a directive of the European Parliament and of the Council on the reduction of the impact of certain plastic products on the environment (2018) 60 Hurtt, G. C. et al, Harmonization of Land-Use Scenarios for the Period 1500-2100. Climatic Change 109 (1) (2011)

Drive Less, Meat-free, Short Showers, Lights O�, Fill Reuse, Recycle, Reuse Bag, Green Bulbs, Local Products, Unplug...

I love my children! - but not enough to give up products that make me happy.

The people rule, I do what they want.

COLLAPSE

MOREPRODUCTS

NO CUTSLOW TAXES

The people rule, I do what they want.

COLLAPSE

VOLUNTARYACTIONSNO LAWS

CUT CONSUMPTION NOW Extractions 3.6% Emissions 11.0%CO2 - cut per yearnow by LAW

- cut per yearnow by LAW

COLLAPSE stopped

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The people rule, I do what they want.

Cuts for Very High Developed nations, US, EU, etc.

II don’t want to think or work more, I want more products, and equality.

The people rule, I do what they want.

COLLAPSE

MORE PRODUCTS

MOREEQUALITY

RESPONSIBILITY FOR COLLAPSE VERY HIGH HIGH MEDIUM LOW United States European Union China India Nigeria Humanity avg.

Very HighLow Medium High

Collapse stopped by responsibility

UN human development levels

Collapse stopped by responsibility Collapse stopped by responsibility Collapse stopped by responsibility

Reductions-additions are by responsibility for natural resource extraction and CO2 emissions from consumption per capita per year now, increasing with inaction.

CUT now / year: EXTRACTIONS

cut 3.6%cut 2.5%

add 1.3%add 3.4%cut 4.4%cut 3.5%cut 3.1%

add 1.3%add 3.3%cut 1.7%

CUT now/yr: EMISSIONScut 11.0%

cut 4.4%cut 0.2%

add 4.0%cut 14.9% cut 7.0%

cut 5.2%cut 0.3%

add 3.4%cut 3.8%

COLLAPSE STOPPED by CLOSED MASS LAWS• Change from quantity to quality now by law:• Extract the absolutely fewest natural resources;• Make only the very best, lasting, shared, cyclical products;• Reduce natural resource extraction and greenhouse gas emissions from consumption by national and intranational per capita responsibility - the only likely workable, effective basis for the required international agreement;• Happiness and wellbeing are first humans, activities and nature - not products.

closed massX

X X X

‘Real reality’ is required to stop global collapse A unique science report calculates the reality of what is required to stop imminent global collapse caused by destruction of nature.

“Collapse of our civilizations and the extinction of much of the natural world is on the horizon”, Sir David Attenborough voicing the conclusion of eminent scientists. Because it is a global issue, an international agreement is required to stop collapse by stopping humanity’s relentless destruction of nature from which we humans, all our products and all life are exclusively made. Existing agreements including UN Climate and Sustainable Development are based on political, economic and social “realities” - not real reality, nature, the laws and limits of which science discovers. Since the beginning of the movement to preserve nature a half-century ago UN un-reality agreements have completely failed - and are projected to continue to fail - to stop collapse:

• In the last 50 years global extraction of natural resources has nearly quadrupled; climate-changing greenhouse gas emissions have doubled, and so has the radiative forcing (warming effect) of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

• Astonishingly the next 35 years of resource extraction and fossil fuel emissions are projected to equal the past 300,000 years, the time of our H. sapiens species - and it won’t stop there. Global social and economic collapse is inevitable and imminent.

Uniquely this new science report - “Global collapse stopped now, what you can do” - shows the real realities, including the extraction and emission cuts and additions required by each of 189 nations to stop collapse and secure sustainable human development including climate stabilization. For example -

• To stop collapse the European Union – nearly all UN Very High Developed nations - should cut resource extraction and CO2 emissions from EU consumption of global goods and services 3.5% and 7.0% per year, by law starting now, increasing with inaction.

• The report emphasizes that people who say, “These cuts are impossibly high”, must add, “collapse is inevitable, my child’s future is destroyed”.

30 years of political-social-economic “realities” have resulted in the European Union cutting consumption emissions only 0.7% per year, 1/10th of the 7.0% now required by physical reality and responsibility. The three-decade reality is even worse for EU resource extraction which increased 1.4% per year per capita, far from the 3.5% reduction reality required per year now.

The report finds that “winning the war” to stop collapse requires “reality reports”. Currently media covers the political reality of “reduce by 2030… by 2050”, sometime in the future. The real reality is “CUT NOW”, eg European Union cut 398 million tonnes of extractions and 291 million tonnes of CO2 emissions, 689 million tonnes total this year.

• Where are 689 million tonnes of EU cuts - the weight of 68,900 Eiffel Towers or 13,780 Titanics! - to be found now, this year?

Which extractions and products should be cut? How many tonnes are saved with popular reductions like EAT LESS MEAT and DON’T FLY? Media must inform the public of real reality. The calculations are based on the principles of physical reality and equality of human beings - long agreed by every nation including in the UN Declaration of Human Rights - but completely ignored in UN Climate and Sustainable Development agreements among others. The international science authorities on natural resources and climate - International Resource Panel (IRP) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) - have established real reality mass/tonne limits on total global natural resource extractions, 68 gigatonnes per year by 2050; and on total global greenhouse gas emissions, 900 gigatonnes CO2 from 2019 onward*. These limits are required for sustainable human development and climate stabilization to stay below 2˚C.

The global totals mean that each human can emit about 118 tCO2 from 1 Jan 2019 onward; and by 2050 each human should be extracting by means of their consumption no more than about 7 tonnes per year of natural resources. Multiplying the population of each country by the per capita limits give the national totals and cuts or additions required. Application of real reality, the people demand laws The report notes that the nearly universally agreed principle of governance is “The people rule, government does what they want”. Therefore it is “the people” who should use the real reality cuts and additions, and demand that national governments enact laws to guarantee that the reductions are made – because voluntary actions have failed for a half-century, real reality requires laws. The report illustrates that current public demonstrations feature “meaningless” - not real reality - demands such as these in typical posters:

“Less greed, more love for nature; Be cool, stop global warming; The ocean is rising, and so are we, Make Earth day every day, School strike 4 climate, Human change not climate change, …”

Lawmakers can laugh at these demands, “Less greed, more love for nature - hey I’m for all of these, they’re generalities, most everyone agrees with them, why bother demonstrating?” If the public demands are from the IPCC Summary for Policy Makers (SPM), these statements are approved by politicians and reflects political-economic-social “realities” - with hidden assumptions about massive amounts of non-existing negative emissions, unlikely reductions of other greenhouse gases, population and resource consumption - not real reality, and are formulated like:

“Reduce global emissions 50% by 2030, carbon neutral by 2050.” Lawmakers laugh again, “By 2030, 2050, I’ll be out of office or dead! And this is a global demand, IPCC doesn’t specify equity numbers, my nation’s not going to do much if anything, maybe some other poor fools will”. The report concludes that “meaningless” demands with no mass/tonne real physical reality like these must stop:

These real physical reality mass/tonne meaningful demands must start now:

Lawmakers stop laughing, trapped by specific, required meaningful actions, laws demanded by global electorates which in real reality will stop collapse. Here are science numbers for 189 nations - citizens can find their national numbers and use them in demonstrations. Cutting-adding by national and intergenerational per capita responsibility is the only likely workable, effective basis for the required UN Sustainable Development and Climate agreements. Note that there is a close correlation between per capita development including income and extractions and emissions. This means that

• Humanity’s standard of development excellence - UN Very High Income, Education, Longevity - is in real reality a standard of absolute failure, nothing less than the cause of global collapse:

• IRP concludes that there is no level of income (or development) at which natural resource consumption - destruction of nature including climate - stabilizes. Laws are required.

Regarding spending money to stop collapse, the report includes a sobering “social reality” from a just-published science survey of Americans:

70% of Americans think climate change is a reality, but 70% of Americans - whose GNI per capita is $4,500 per month - won’t pay $10 per month to stop it. The authors found no similar surveys on Europeans; are they any better?

• It maybe that global collapse is an intergenerational struggle, with the young forcing parents and grandparents to spend the money now to stop collapse.

Authors: Michael Wadleigh, scientist, Oscar-winning director, active since the beginning 50 years ago of the movement to preserve nature - “back to the garden”; Birgit van Munster (DVM), global sustainable human development, closedmass@gmail.com +44 7527 111196 With the support of: Eminent scientists representing nearly every nation, 24,500 students from every EU country whose future is in the balance. see below

Global collapse stopped now, what you can do, summary overview

50 years ago, the prophetic power of science, BBC Reith Lecture

“There is a change to which we are contributing to the planetary atmosphere… a change brought about by the internal combustion engine and the burning of fossil fuels… a change in the amount of carbon dioxide in the air… a change which produces a greenhouse effect and a warming of the earth… a change which will melt the polar icecaps and raise the level of the oceans”, 1969, Frank Fraser Darling. Given Darling’s and other scientist’s clear and prominent warning heard round the world 50 years ago, what has been humanity’s response? A half-century of no meaningful action which projected will inevitably, imminently result in global collapse… Meaningful demands are in mass, tonne reductions now because resource consumption and climate destabilization are caused by tonnes of emissions and extractions now, eg: “Cut consumption tonnes now, UNITED STATES - 4.4% & -14.9%, EUROPEAN UNION -3.5% & -7.0%, CHINA - 3.1% & -5.2%, INDIA add 1.3% & cut 0.3%, NIGERIA add 3.3% & add 3.4% of extractions and emissions, per year by law increasing with inaction.” 100 plus “meaningless” demands with no mass-tonnes must be avoided: “Government declare climate emergency taking active steps to achieve climate justice, reform curriculum to address ecological crisis as educational priority, communicate ecological crisis severity and necessity to act now to public, incorporate youth views into policymaking with voting age down to 16, 11 years to act, 1 planet 1 chance, A hot planet is not cool, Act now or swim later, Activism is learning, Be cool stop global warming, Be part of the solution not the pollution, Be the change you want to see, Bla bla act now, Change is difficult not changing is fatal, Change the politics not the climate, Change the system not the climate, Citizens of Europe rise for climate, Clean power to all people, Climate change is real Trump’s tan is fake, Climate first politics second, Climate justice now, Coal kills, Coral before coal, Denial is not a policy, Dinosaurs thought they had time too, Does our activism scare you your inaction scares us, Enough is enough more trees, Feet are like cars only better, Fight for your rights, Fight our government save our environment, Frack off, Get up stand up for the fight, Give a hoot don’t pollute, Give us a chance to grow old too, Global Warming isn’t science fiction, Grandpa what is a snowman?, Hold in your farts, Human change not climate change, I love clean energy and I can’t vote yet, I love sun-powered country, I want you to panic, I’ve seen smarter cabinets at Ikea, If the climate were a bank it would have been saved by now, If we die we’re taking you with us, If you are not part of the solution you are part of the problem, Less greed more love for nature, Listen to the kids, Look after our planet, Make Belgium green again with love, Make earth day every day, Make earth great again, Make the climate great again, Make the planet green again, Nature grows capitalism blows, No life on a dead planet, No ocean no us, No old age we will die of climate change, No sides in climate, No time to waste, Oil spills are forever, Our earth our respiration, Planet before profit, Raise your voice not the sea level, Report card climate action F ethics F responsibility F, Respect your mother, Save me, Save it now, Save the climate act now, Save the mermaids clean the oceans, Save the reef, Save the trees, School strike 4 climate, Sick of pollutions, Skolstrejk for klimatet, Some causes are worth sacrifice, SOS save our planet, Stop denying the earth is dying, Stop raping mother earth, Stop ocean plastic, The climate is changing why aren’t you?, The ocean is rising and so are we, The seasons are more

unpredictable than my period, There is only 1 earth let’s take care of it, There's no planet B, Think of the children, This can’t wait until I’m bigger, This is our future don’t fuck it up, This planet cannot sustain this system, This system is worse than my math skills, Titanic wouldn’t happen in 2019, Wake up and think, Wake up take action now, We can must do it, We are future voters we want change, We can’t eat money, We can’t eat people, We don’t have time, We fight back, We need mother nature she does not need us, We’ll be less activist if you’ll be less shit, We’re sending a message to politicians, What I stand for is what I stand on, When I’m grown up I would like to be alive, Where can we go?, Why should we learn without a future? …

11 years to act, 1 planet 1 chance, A hot planet is not cool, Act now or swim later, Activism is learning, Be cool stop global warming, Be part of the solution not the pollution, Be the change you want to see, Bla bla act now, Change is difficult not changing is fatal, Change the politics not the climate, Change the system not the climate, Citizens of Europe rise for climate, Clean power to all people, Climate change is real Trump’s tan is fake, Climate first politics second, Climate justice now, Coal kills, Coral before coal, Denial is not a policy,Dinosaurs thought they had time too, Does our activism scare you your inaction scares us, Enough is enough more trees, Feet are like cars only better, Fight for your rights, Fight our government save our environment, Frack off, Get up stand up for the fight, Give a hoot don’t pollute, Give us a chance to grow old too, Global Warming isn’t science fiction, Grandpa what is a snowman?, Hold in your fart, Human change not climate change, I love clean energy and I can’t vote yet, I love sun-powered country, I want you to panic, I’ve seen smarter cabinets at Ikea, If the climate were a bank it would have been saved by now, If we die we’re taking you with us, If you are not part of the solution you are part of the problem, Less greed more love for nature, Listen to the kids, Look after our planet, Make Belgium green again with love, Make earth day every day, Make earth great again, Make the climate great again, Make the planet green again, Nature grows capitalism blows, No life on a dead planet, No ocean no us, No old age we will die of climate change, No sides in climate, No time to waste, Oil spills are forever, Our earth our respiration, Planet before profit, Raise your voice not the sea level, Report card climate action F ethics F responsibility F, Respect your mother, Save me, Save it now, Save the climate act now, Save the mermaids clean the oceans, Save the reef, Save the trees, School strike 4 climate, Sick of pollutions, Skolstrejk for klimatet, Some causes are worth sacrifice, SOS save our planet, Stop denying the earth is dying, Stop raping mother earth, Stop ocean plastic, The climate is changing why aren’t you?, The ocean is rising and so are we, The seasons are more unpredictable than my period, There is only 1 earth let’s take care of it, There is no planet B, Think of the children, This can’t wait until I’m bigger, This is our future don’t fuck it up, This planet cannot sustain this system, This system is worse than my math skills, Titanic wouldn’t happen in 2019, Wake up and think, Wake up take action now, We can/must do it, We are future voters we want change, We can’t eat money, We can’t eat people, We don’t have time, We fight back, We need mother nature she does not need us, We’ll be less activist if you’ll be less shit, We’re sending a message to politicians, What I stand for is what I stand on, When I’m grown up I would like to be alive, Where can we go?, Why should we learn without a future?… Demands meaningful meaningless

GLOBAL COLLAPSE STOPPED - CUT

CONSUMPTION ! :

USA cut NOWExtractions 4.4%,

CO2 emissions 14.9%

EU cut NOWExtractions 3.5%,

CO2 emissions 7.0%

CHINA cut NOW Extractions 3.1%,

CO2 emissions 5.2%

NIGERIA increase Extractions 3.3% &CO2 emissions 3.4%

INDIA increase Extractions 1.3%,

cut CO2 emissions 0.3%

CUT PER YEARBY LAW NOW

Increasing with Inaction

No old age we will die of climate change, No sides in climate, No time to waste, Oil spills are forever, Our earth our respiration, Planet before profit, Raise your voice not the sea level, Report card climate action F ethics F responsibility F, Respect your mother, Save me, Save it now, Save the climate act now, Save the mermaids clean the oceans, Save the reef, Save the

REAL REALITY SOCIAL REALITY

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REAL REALITYSOCIAL REALITY

GLOBAL COLLAPSE STOPPED - CUT

CONSUMPTION :

USA cut NOWExtractions 4.4%,

CO2 emissions 14.9%

EU cut NOWExtractions 3.5%,

CO2 emissions 7.0%

CHINA cut NOW Extractions 3.1%,

CO2 emissions 5.2%

NIGERIA increase Extractions 3.3% &CO2 emissions 3.4%

INDIA increase Extractions 1.3%,

cut CO2 emissions 0.3%

CUT PER YEARBY LAW NOW

Increasing with Inaction

hurting the poor?, How slag can help stop climate change, How your duvet can help the hurting the poor?, How slag can help stop climate change, How your duvet can help the environment, I'm not having children to help fight climate change', Is Canada's 'pricing pollution' tax the way toward a cleaner future?, LED lights making dent in UK energy demand, On not having children because of climate change, Plastic or paper, which bag is greener?, Race to pull greenhouse gases from air, Road-testing the diet to save the world, Scotland 'could be net-zero for greenhouse gas emissions', Six climate questions for 'Green GB', UK carbon capture project begins, UK steps towards zero-carbon economy, What do

environment, I'm not having children to help fight climate change', Is Canada's 'pricing pollution' tax the way toward a cleaner future?, LED lights making dent in UK energy demand, On not having children because of climate change, Plastic or paper, which bag is greener?, Race to pull greenhouse gases from air, Road-testing the diet to save the world, Scotland 'could be net-zero for greenhouse gas emissions', Six climate questions for 'Green GB', UK carbon capture project begins, UK steps towards zero-carbon economy, What do

WINNING THE WAR

What you can do to stop collapse now by law: