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Ecography ECOG-00138 Braunisch, V., Coppes, J., Schmid, H., Suchant, R., Arlettaz, R. and Bollmann, K. 2013. Selecting from correlated climate variables: a major source of uncertainty for predicting species distributions under climate change. – Ecography 36: xxx–xxx. Supplementary material

Ecography ECOG-00138 · Table A4: Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients between climate variables and other environmental predictors under current (2010), past (1920) and different

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Page 1: Ecography ECOG-00138 · Table A4: Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients between climate variables and other environmental predictors under current (2010), past (1920) and different

Ecography ECOG-00138Braunisch, V., Coppes, J., Schmid, H., Suchant, R., Arlettaz, R. and Bollmann, K. 2013. Selecting from correlated climate variables: a major source of uncertainty for predicting species distributions under climate change. – Ecography 36: xxx–xxx.

Supplementary material

Page 2: Ecography ECOG-00138 · Table A4: Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients between climate variables and other environmental predictors under current (2010), past (1920) and different

Appendix 1 Table A1: Climate conditions in the study area. Mean, minimum and maximum of climate

variables, and their changes since 1920 (ΔV) observed in the study area (SA) and in the test

area (Black Forest, T) used for back-projections. (T57, T122: average temperature in spring

and winter; P57, P122: sum of precipitation in spring and winter; for details see Table 2).

Variable (V) Mean (SD) Min Max ΔV (SA) SD ΔV (T) SD

T57 (°C) 12,77 4,23 -8,50 18,80 +0,20 0,70 +0,47 0,41

T122 (°C) -1,26 2,89 -16,20 3,47 +0,03 0,52 +0,18 0,26

P57 (mm) 112,05 31,18 57,67 238,00 +1,97 6,24 +3,76 2,62

P122 (mm) 79,52 34,59 20,33 274,67 +1,88 10,08 +1,46 4,24

Table A2: Number and distribution of presence data used for modelling. C: capercaillie, H:

hazel grouse, P: pygmy owl, T: three-toed woodpecker. The location of the three mountain

ranges is indicated in Figure 1. “Other” refers to species’ presence data outside the three

mountain ranges.

Region C H P T Black Forest 219 40 144 46 Jura 50 266 133 16 Alps 273 726 234 462 Other 0 441 103 53 Total 542 1473 614 577

Page 3: Ecography ECOG-00138 · Table A4: Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients between climate variables and other environmental predictors under current (2010), past (1920) and different

Table A3: Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients between topographic and land cover

variables, measured for 10’000 points randomly selected across the study area (for variable

codes see Table 2).

EAST

EXTENS.

FOEDGE

FOREST

INTENS.

NORTH

ROADD.

SETTLED.

SLOPE

SOLAR57

TOPEX

WETSOIL

EAST 0,04 -0,03 -0,02 0,01 -0,08 -0,03 0,03 -0,03 0,14 0,01 -0,01 EXTENSIVE 0,04 0,21 -0,12 -0,04 -0,05 -0,06 0,03 0,07 0,20 0,01 0,11 FOEDGE -0,03 0,21 0,49 0,12 0,01 0,14 -0,10 0,19 -0,18 -0,11 0,07 FOREST -0,02 -0,12 0,49 -0,20 0,02 -0,10 0,11 0,19 -0,22 0,03 0,11 INTENSIVE 0,01 -0,04 0,12 -0,20 -0,01 0,57 -0,57 -0,63 0,02 -0,06 -0,07 NORTH -0,08 -0,05 0,01 0,02 -0,01 -0,02 0,03 0,01 -0,44 -0,07 -0,01 ROADDENS -0,03 -0,06 0,14 -0,10 0,57 -0,02 -0,86 -0,50 -0,13 -0,19 -0,04 SETTLEDIST 0,03 0,03 -0,10 0,11 -0,57 0,03 -0,86 0,54 0,12 0,16 0,06 SLOPE -0,03 0,07 0,19 0,19 -0,63 0,01 -0,50 0,54 -0,19 0,02 -0,03 SOLAR57 0,14 0,20 -0,18 -0,22 0,02 -0,44 -0,13 0,12 -0,19 0,21 0,11 TOPEX 0,01 0,01 -0,11 0,03 -0,06 -0,07 -0,19 0,16 0,02 0,21 -0,03 WETSOIL -0,01 0,11 0,07 0,11 -0,07 -0,01 -0,04 0,06 -0,03 0,11 -0,03

Page 4: Ecography ECOG-00138 · Table A4: Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients between climate variables and other environmental predictors under current (2010), past (1920) and different

Table A4: Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients between climate variables and other

environmental predictors under current (2010), past (1920) and different scenarios of future

(2050) climate conditions, measured for 10’000 points randomly selected across the study

area. Bivariate correlations under calibration conditions are highlighted, differences under

altered climate conditions of more than ΔR = |0.03| are indicated with an asterisk. (Climate

change scenarios S1-S4 are defined in Table 3; for variable codes see Table 2).

SLOPE TOPEX EAST NORTH SOLAR57 FOREST FOEDGE INTENS. EXTENS. WETSOIL ROADD. SETTLED. T57_2010 -0,71 -0,11 -0,04 0,00 -0,33 0,02 -0,05 0,53 -0,17 -0,06 0,58 -0,63 T57_1920 -0,70 -0,08 -0,01 0,00 -0,31 0,06 -0,05 0,51 -0,12* -0,06 0,54* -0,60

T57_S1 -0,69 -0,15* -0,04 0,01 -0,36 0,02 -0,03 0,53 -0,20 -0,06 0,60 -0,64

T57_S2 -0,69 -0,16* -0,04 0,01 -0,36 0,01 -0,03 0,54 -0,22* -0,06 0,60 -0,64

T57_S3 -0,69 -0,15* -0,04 0,01 -0,35 0,01 -0,04 0,53 -0,20 -0,06 0,59 -0,64

T57_S4 -0,69 -0,15* -0,04 0,01 -0,35 0,00 -0,03 0,54 -0,22* -0,06 0,60 -0,64

T122_2010 -0,65 -0,11 -0,05 0,01 -0,37 0,05 -0,03 0,51 -0,23 -0,07 0,59 -0,62 T122_1920 -0,63 -0,09 -0,02 0,01 -0,38 0,08 -0,04 0,48 -0,20 -0,08 0,56 -0,60

T122_S1 -0,65 -0,14 -0,04 0,01 -0,38 0,05 -0,02 0,51 -0,23 -0,07 0,59 -0,62

T122_S2 -0,63 -0,15* -0,04 0,02 -0,39 0,05 -0,02 0,50 -0,23 -0,07 0,59 -0,62

T122_S3 -0,64 -0,14 -0,04 0,02 -0,38 0,04 -0,01 0,51 -0,24 -0,06 0,60 -0,62

T122_S4 -0,63 -0,15* -0,05 0,02 -0,39 0,03 0,00 0,52 -0,27* -0,07 0,60 -0,62 P57_2010 0,65 0,06 0,01 0,01 0,20 -0,08 0,03 -0,51 0,12 0,09 -0,47 0,51 P57_1920 0,62 0,05 0,00 0,01 0,20 -0,08 0,03 -0,49 0,13 0,09 -0,46 0,50

P57_S1 0,63 0,09 0,01 0,01 0,23 -0,08 0,03 -0,50 0,15 0,10 -0,48 0,52

P57_S2 0,65 0,07 0,00 0,02 0,21 -0,08 0,03 -0,51 0,14 0,10 -0,48 0,52

P57_S3 0,63 0,08 -0,01 0,02 0,16* -0,09 0,02 -0,50 0,08* 0,10 -0,45 0,49

P57_S4 0,68 0,09 0,01 0,01 0,21 -0,05 0,02 -0,55* 0,16* 0,10 -0,51* 0,54 P122_2010 0,63 0,11 0,03 -0,01 0,24 -0,06 0,03 -0,49 0,02 0,07 -0,46 0,54 P122_1920 0,68* 0,07* 0,01 0,00 0,23 -0,06 0,03 -0,53 0,02 0,08 -0,48 0,57

P122_S1 0,63 0,15* 0,03 -0,02 0,25 -0,03 0,02 -0,51 0,05 0,08 -0,47 0,54

P122_S2 0,63 0,14 0,02 -0,02 0,25 -0,05 0,02 -0,50 0,03 0,07 -0,47 0,55

P122_S3 0,62 0,13 0,04 -0,03 0,25 -0,06 0,00 -0,51 0,03 0,05 -0,48 0,54

P122_S4 0,64 0,14 0,03 -0,02 0,25 -0,04 0,02 -0,52 0,04 0,07 -0,48 0,55

Page 5: Ecography ECOG-00138 · Table A4: Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients between climate variables and other environmental predictors under current (2010), past (1920) and different

Table A5: Relative contribution of the predictor variables to the models of (a) capercaillie,

(b) hazel grouse, (c) pygmy owl and (d) three-toed woodpecker. Predictor contribution is

given in percent (%) contribution to the total increase in regularised log likelihood of the

Maximum Entropy model compared to a uniform distribution. For variable descriptions see

Table 2.

(a)

Type Variable Contribution (%)

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 Climate T57 - - - 34,88 26,86 T122 - - 30,59 - 7,40 P57 - 14,56 - - 1,65 P122 8,15 - - - 1,24 Topography SLOPE 5,91 4,35 4,55 3,76 4,26 TOPEX 0,87 1,00 0,80 0,86 0,80 EAST 0,49 0,36 0,26 0,27 0,16 NORTH 0,74 0,33 0,32 0,29 0,26 SOLAR57 7,11 3,83 1,30 2,86 2,70 Land cover FOREST 44,34 43,53 42,55 40,43 38,98 FOEDGE 0,33 0,19 0,38 0,36 0,33 INTENSIVE 22,85 22,66 12,79 9,88 9,70 EXTENSIVE 0,94 1,33 1,34 1,24 1,13 WETSOIL 4,21 4,58 3,90 3,73 3,44 ROADDENS 0,85 0,73 0,53 0,59 0,50 SETTLEDIST 3,21 2,53 0,69 0,86 0,60 (b)

Type Variable Contribution (%)

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 Climate T57 - - - 59,55 44,21 T122 - - 54,33 - 12,14 P57 - 33,95 - - 4,92 P122 7,98 - - - 1,38 Topography SLOPE 25,76 11,77 4,64 2,98 2,73 TOPEX 0,30 0,16 0,17 0,13 0,11 EAST 0,62 0,46 0,27 0,27 0,23 NORTH 0,72 0,62 0,15 0,12 0,10 SOLAR57 6,33 4,53 2,15 2,02 1,57 Land cover FOREST 38,93 36,26 32,44 30,10 28,42 FOEDGE 1,18 0,68 0,49 0,35 0,22 INTENSIVE 13,86 8,23 2,39 1,81 1,79 EXTENSIVE 2,57 2,01 2,00 1,71 1,59 WETSOIL 0,76 0,25 0,32 0,31 0,18 ROADDENS 0,45 0,55 0,34 0,31 0,21 SETTLEDIST 0,52 0,55 0,32 0,36 0,22

Page 6: Ecography ECOG-00138 · Table A4: Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients between climate variables and other environmental predictors under current (2010), past (1920) and different

(c)

Type Variable Contribution (%)

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 Climate T57 - - - 40,65 31,63 T122 - - 36,39 - 7,85 P57 - 14,04 - - 2,20 P122 21,58 - - - 3,62 Topography SLOPE 3,68 4,48 4,38 3,90 3,39 TOPEX 0,61 0,40 0,39 0,31 0,26 EAST 0,07 0,12 0,23 0,15 0,19 NORTH 1,05 1,31 0,77 0,61 0,63 SOLAR57 9,53 12,08 5,08 5,72 4,74 Land cover FOREST 39,14 36,97 37,86 35,30 34,34 FOEDGE 0,80 0,78 0,86 0,73 0,69 INTENSIVE 19,38 24,76 10,95 9,21 7,04 EXTENSIVE 2,19 2,65 1,75 2,09 1,87 WETSOIL 1,27 1,02 0,74 0,67 1,00 ROADDENS 0,53 0,54 0,24 0,24 0,24 SETTLEDIST 0,17 0,85 0,38 0,41 0,32 (d)

Type Variable Contribution (%)

M1 M2 M3 M4 M5 Climate T57 - - - 60,63 47,97 T122 - - 56,15 - 10,26 P57 - 27,75 - - 2,33 P122 8,27 - - - 0,75 Topography SLOPE 35,68 22,72 5,56 3,88 2,79 TOPEX 1,18 1,06 1,04 1,12 1,01 EAST 0,32 0,28 0,19 0,18 0,16 NORTH 0,82 0,69 0,37 0,37 0,38 SOLAR57 3,79 3,20 0,77 0,73 0,69 Land cover FOREST 26,78 26,72 27,51 24,66 23,79 FOEDGE 0,53 0,69 0,19 0,17 0,37 INTENSIVE 9,28 6,44 1,68 1,63 2,86 EXTENSIVE 0,74 0,64 0,60 0,76 0,98 WETSOIL 8,38 5,51 4,59 4,55 4,05 ROADDENS 1,67 1,26 0,76 0,84 1,19 SETTLEDIST 2,57 3,04 0,59 0,48 0,42

Page 7: Ecography ECOG-00138 · Table A4: Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients between climate variables and other environmental predictors under current (2010), past (1920) and different

Table A6: Accuracy (AUC and standard deviation) of models for capercaillie, obtained with

different SDM approaches, assessed based on 10-fold cross-validation. Small letters indicate

significant differences in model accuracy (Kruskal-Wallis test with post-hoc Mann-Whitney

U-tests for pairwise differences, Bonferroni corrected p-values, significance level p<0.05).

Model Variable GAM GBM GLM AUC SD AUC SD AUC SD M1 P122 0.9495a,c 0.010 0.9466a 0.014 0.9483a 0.011 M2 P57 0.9509b 0.009 0.9412b 0.016 0.9509b 0.010 M3 T122 0.960 0.006 0.9543c 0.006 0.959 0.006 M4 T57 0.9612c 0.003 0.957 0.004 0.961 0.004 M5 All 0.9661a, b 0.007 0.9648a,b,c 0.006 0.9663a,b 0.008

Page 8: Ecography ECOG-00138 · Table A4: Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients between climate variables and other environmental predictors under current (2010), past (1920) and different

Table A7: Predicted distribution ranges of (a) capercaillie, (b) hazel grouse, (c) pygmy owl

and (d) three-toed woodpecker under current (2010) climate and future (2050) scenarios (S1-

S4, for definition see Table 3). Changes are indicated as absolute area (km2) and percentage of

current distribution (%) that is predicted to remain constant (retained), to be lost (lost) or to be

newly occupied (gained) in 2050. The definitions of the models (M1-M5) are given in Table

5, AV represents the un-weighted average of the predictions of M1-M4. For variable

descriptions see Table 2.

(a) Variable Scenario Area (km2) Diff. (%) Change (km2) Change (% Model 2010 2050 retained lost gained retained lost gained M1 P122 S1 8376 8611 102,8 7707 669 904 92,0 8,0 10,8 M2 P57 8365 8239 98,5 7526 839 714 90,0 10,0 8,5 M3 T122 8118 3573 44,0 3317 4801 256 40,9 59,1 3,2 M4 T57 8106 5578 68,8 5325 2781 253 65,7 34,3 3,1 M5 All 6387 2923 45,8 2545 3842 378 39,8 60,2 5,9 AV 8036 6172 76,8 5878 2158 294 73,1 26,9 3,7 M1 P122 S2 8376 8739 104,3 8184 192 555 97,7 2,3 6,6 M2 P57 8365 5076 60,7 4823 3542 253 57,7 42,3 3,0 M3 T122 8118 1510 18,6 1479 6639 31 18,2 81,8 0,4 M4 T57 8106 2274 28,1 2249 5858 26 27,7 72,3 0,3 M5 All 6387 951 14,9 901 5486 51 14,1 85,9 0,8 AV 8036 3535 44,0 3503 4533 32 43,6 56,4 0,4 M1 P122 S3 8376 9228 110,2 7942 435 1287 94,8 5,2 15,4 M2 P57 8365 8772 104,9 8029 336 743 96,0 4,0 8,9 M3 T122 8118 2487 30,6 2441 5677 46 30,1 69,9 0,6 M4 T57 8106 5959 73,5 5890 2216 69 72,7 27,3 0,9 M5 All 6387 2140 33,5 1668 4718 472 26,1 73,9 7,4 AV 8036 6221 77,4 6068 1968 154 75,5 24,5 1,9 M1 P122 S4 8376 8861 105,8 8195 181 666 97,8 2,2 8,0 M2 P57 8365 4778 57,1 4554 3811 224 54,4 45,6 2,7 M3 T122 8118 2774 34,2 2555 5562 219 31,5 68,5 2,7 M4 T57 8106 3699 45,6 3509 4597 190 43,3 56,7 2,3 M5 All 6387 1758 27,5 1572 4814 186 24,6 75,4 2,9 AV 8036 4350 54,1 4248 3789 102 52,9 47,1 1,3

Page 9: Ecography ECOG-00138 · Table A4: Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients between climate variables and other environmental predictors under current (2010), past (1920) and different

(b) Variable Scenario Area (km2) Diff. (%) Change (km2) Change (% Model 2010 2050 retained lost gained retained lost gained M1 P122 S1 14466 14701 101,6 13959 508 742 96,5 3,5 5,1 M2 P57 13385 12757 95,3 12177 1209 581 91,0 9,0 4,3 M3 T122 12115 8076 66,7 6832 5283 1244 56,4 43,6 10,3 M4 T57 12864 10137 78,8 9139 3725 998 71,0 29,0 7,8 M5 All 12799 9628 75,2 8440 4359 1188 65,9 34,1 9,3 AV 13127 10893 83,0 10226 2901 667 77,9 22,1 5,1 M1 P122 S2 14466 15206 105,1 14390 77 816 99,5 0,5 5,6 M2 P57 13385 9523 71,1 9133 4252 390 68,2 31,8 2,9 M3 T122 12115 5128 42,3 3519 8596 1609 29,0 71,0 13,3 M4 T57 12864 5504 42,8 4394 8470 1110 34,2 65,8 8,6 M5 All 12799 4223 33,0 3154 9645 1069 24,6 75,4 8,4 AV 13127 7650 58,3 7122 6005 528 54,3 45,7 4,0 M1 P122 S3 14466 14174 98,0 13782 684 392 95,3 4,7 2,7 M2 P57 13385 14023 104,8 12872 513 1150 96,2 3,8 8,6 M3 T122 12115 6800 56,1 5375 6741 1425 44,4 55,6 11,8 M4 T57 12864 10806 84,0 9921 2943 885 77,1 22,9 6,9 M5 All 12799 7557 59,0 5937 6862 1620 46,4 53,6 12,7 AV 13127 11039 84,1 10532 2595 507 80,2 19,8 3,9 M1 P122 S4 14466 15274 105,6 14393 74 881 99,5 0,5 6,1 M2 P57 13385 8365 62,5 8158 5227 207 60,9 39,1 1,5 M3 T122 12115 6680 55,1 5372 6743 1308 44,3 55,7 10,8 M4 T57 12864 7446 57,9 6432 6432 1014 50,0 50,0 7,9 M5 All 12799 5743 44,9 4856 7944 888 37,9 62,1 6,9 AV 13127 8574 65,3 8053 5073 521 61,4 38,6 4,0 (c) Variable Scenario Area (km2) Diff. (%) Change (km2) Change (%) Model 2010 2050 retained lost gained retained lost gained M1 P122 S1 14162 14166 100,0 13170 992 996 93,0 7,0 7,0 M2 P57 14480 15456 106,7 13770 711 1686 95,1 4,9 11,6 M3 T122 12068 4967 41,2 4695 7374 272 38,9 61,1 2,3 M4 T57 12627 8454 67,0 8056 4571 398 63,8 36,2 3,2 M5 All 12480 8418 67,4 7326 5155 1092 58,7 41,3 8,7 AV 13084 10140 77,5 9792 3293 348 74,8 25,2 2,7 M1 P122 S2 14162 14805 104,5 13895 267 911 98,1 1,9 6,4 M2 P57 14480 11564 79,9 10892 3588 672 75,2 24,8 4,6 M3 T122 12068 1829 15,2 1744 10324 84 14,5 85,5 0,7 M4 T57 12627 3371 26,7 3200 9427 171 25,3 74,7 1,4 M5 All 12480 2272 18,2 2162 10318 111 17,3 82,7 0,9 AV 13084 6815 52,1 6696 6388 119 51,2 48,8 0,9 M1 P122 S3 14162 13253 93,6 12466 1696 787 88,0 12,0 5,6 M2 P57 14480 15608 107,8 14137 343 1471 97,6 2,4 10,2 M3 T122 12068 3354 27,8 3244 8825 111 26,9 73,1 0,9 M4 T57 12627 9159 72,5 8922 3706 237 70,7 29,3 1,9 M5 All 12480 3623 29,0 3388 9092 235 27,1 72,9 1,9 AV 13084 9642 73,7 9525 3559 117 72,8 27,2 0,9 M1 P122 S4 14162 15002 105,9 13909 253 1093 98,2 1,8 7,7 M2 P57 14480 11352 78,4 10723 3757 628 74,1 25,9 4,3 M3 T122 12068 3604 29,9 3405 8664 200 28,2 71,8 1,7 M4 T57 12627 5418 42,9 5122 7505 296 40,6 59,4 2,3 M5 All 12480 4331 34,7 4151 8329 180 33,3 66,7 1,4 AV 13084 8040 61,4 7859 5226 181 60,1 39,9 1,4

Page 10: Ecography ECOG-00138 · Table A4: Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients between climate variables and other environmental predictors under current (2010), past (1920) and different

(d) Variable Scenario Area (km2) Diff. (%) Change (km2) Change (%) Model 2010 2050 retained lost gained retained lost gained M1 P122 S1 13580 13845 102,0 12883 697 962 94,9 5,1 7,1 M2 P57 14756 14581 98,8 13531 1226 1050 91,7 8,3 7,1 M3 T122 11652 7167 61,5 6068 5584 1099 52,1 47,9 9,4 M4 T57 12421 10081 81,2 8964 3458 1117 72,2 27,8 9,0 M5 All 12344 8418 68,2 7326 5018 1092 59,3 40,7 8,8 AV 12924 10914 84,4 10117 2807 797 78,3 21,7 6,2 M1 P122 S2 13580 13927 102,6 13356 224 572 98,4 1,6 4,2 M2 P57 14756 10010 67,8 9587 5170 423 65,0 35,0 2,9 M3 T122 11652 3789 32,5 2912 8740 877 25,0 75,0 7,5 M4 T57 12421 5291 42,6 4328 8093 963 34,8 65,2 7,8 M5 All 12344 3963 32,1 2997 9347 966 24,3 75,7 7,8 AV 12924 7548 58,4 7072 5852 475 54,7 45,3 3,7 M1 P122 S3 13580 13252 97,6 12811 769 441 94,3 5,7 3,2 M2 P57 14756 15374 104,2 14316 440 1058 97,0 3,0 7,2 M3 T122 11652 5573 47,8 4656 6995 917 40,0 60,0 7,9 M4 T57 12421 10311 83,0 9532 2889 779 76,7 23,3 6,3 M5 All 12344 6298 51,0 5170 7174 1128 41,9 58,1 9,1 AV 12924 10795 83,5 10401 2523 394 80,5 19,5 3,0 M1 P122 S4 13580 14019 103,2 13375 205 644 98,5 1,5 4,7 M2 P57 14756 9064 61,4 8725 6031 339 59,1 40,9 2,3 M3 T122 11652 5734 49,2 4655 6997 1079 40,0 60,0 9,3 M4 T57 12421 7499 60,4 6340 6082 1159 51,0 49,0 9,3 M5 All 12344 5639 45,7 4480 7864 1158 36,3 63,7 9,4 AV 12924 8378 64,8 7773 5151 605 60,1 39,9 4,7

Page 11: Ecography ECOG-00138 · Table A4: Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients between climate variables and other environmental predictors under current (2010), past (1920) and different

Table A8: Accuracy of models for capercaillie projected to 1920 and evaluated with

historical occurrence data. Models were calibrated using different modelling methods: a

maximum entropy approach (Maxent), generalized linear models (GLM), generalized additive

models (GAM) and boosted regression trees (BRT) and compared using two evaluation

metrics: Cohen’s maximum Kappa (Kmax) and the percent correctly predicted evaluation data

(PCC).

Model Variable Kmax (SD) PCC (SD) Maxent M1 P122 0,299 (0,030) 0,676 (0,014) M2 P57 0,295 (0,028) 0,650 (0,015) M3 T122 0,328 (0,028) 0,672 (0,014) M4 T57 0,322 (0,031) 0,709 (0,014) Av (M1-4) 0,313 (0,028) 0,661 (0,014) M5 ALL 0,339 (0,030) 0,702 (0,014) GLM M1 P122 0.260 0.030 0.661 0.014 M2 P57 0.287 0.030 0.682 0.014 M3 T122 0.323 0.030 0.703 0.014 M4 T57 0.334 0.030 0.705 0.014 Av (M1-4) 0.314 0.031 0.708 0.014 M5 ALL 0.336 0.030 0.715 0.014 GAM M1 P122 0.272 0.029 0.656 0.014 M2 P57 0.290 0.031 0.686 0.014 M3 T122 0.320 0.031 0.706 0.014 M4 T57 0.326 0.031 0.716 0.014 Av (M1-4) 0.316 0.031 0.709 0.014 M5 ALL 0.343 0.030 0.719 0.014 BRT M1 P122 0.315 0.031 0.708 0.014 M2 P57 0.304 0.031 0.704 0.014 M3 T122 0.328 0.030 0.697 0.014 M4 T57 0.342 0.030 0.700 0.014 Av (M1-4) 0.333 0.031 0.721 0.014 M5 ALL 0.340 0.030 0.709 0.014

Page 12: Ecography ECOG-00138 · Table A4: Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients between climate variables and other environmental predictors under current (2010), past (1920) and different

Figure A1: Example for the regional heterogeneity of predicted changes until 2050 for (a)

T57 (temperature in °C), (b) T122 (°C), (c) P57 (precipitation in mm), (d) P122 (mm),

(variable descriptions: see Table 2), under the scenario S1 (scenario description: see Table 3).

(a) (b)

(c) (d)

Page 13: Ecography ECOG-00138 · Table A4: Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients between climate variables and other environmental predictors under current (2010), past (1920) and different

Figure A2: Predicted distributions of (a) capercaillie, (b) hazel grouse, (c) pygmy owl and (d)

three-toed woodpecker under current (2010, left side) and future (2050, middle and right side)

conditions under the climate change scenario S1 (definition see Table 3). Different colours

indicate the consensus between the models M1-M4 (left and central), defined as the number

of models predicting species presence in a pixel. Predicted presence for M5 (right) is also

shown in red to facilitate comparability.

(a)

(b)

Page 14: Ecography ECOG-00138 · Table A4: Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients between climate variables and other environmental predictors under current (2010), past (1920) and different

(c)

(d)