Economic and Market Watch Report - NTREIS · # Homes on the Market * 69 79 # Homes Sold 30 21 # New Homes Built NA NA * Avg # of Days on Market 109 81 * Available as of Dec

Economic and Market Watch Report

4th Quarter, 2006

*Click on a County to view economic and real estate information at the county and zip code level

© 2007 North Texas Real Estate Information Systems, Inc. andNATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Reproduction, reprinting, or retransmission in any form is prohibited without writtenpermission.

North Texas Real Estate Information Systems, Inc.

Index

North Texas Real Estate Information Systems, Inc. (NTREIS) is a real estate information and technology solution provider serving the real estate community in a coverage area exceeding 16,000 square miles in North Texas, including the Dallas Fort Worth Metropolitan Area.

NTREIS provides information management services to over 16,000 MLS subscribers of its 18 shareholder REALTOR Associations, including over 3,000 real estate offices.

In addition to its information management platform; NTREIS researches, develops and delivers various technology products and services through strategic alliances, utilizing a sales and distribution network which includes its shareholder REALTOR Associations.

Economic and Market Watch Report

Local ReportOklahoma

1 Bryan County ...............................................................................................................Texas

2 Anderson County .........................................................................................................3 Bosque County .............................................................................................................4 Collin County ...............................................................................................................6 Comanche County .......................................................................................................7 Cooke County ...............................................................................................................8 Dallas County ...............................................................................................................

11 Delta County ................................................................................................................12 Denton County .............................................................................................................14 Ellis County ..................................................................................................................16 Erath County ...............................................................................................................17 Fannin County .............................................................................................................19 Franklin County ..........................................................................................................20 Freestone County .........................................................................................................21 Grayson County ...........................................................................................................23 Hamilton County .........................................................................................................24 Henderson County .......................................................................................................25 Hill County ...................................................................................................................26 Hood County ................................................................................................................27 Hopkins County ...........................................................................................................28 Hunt County .................................................................................................................30 Jack County .................................................................................................................31 Johnson County ...........................................................................................................33 Kaufman County .........................................................................................................35 Lamar County ..............................................................................................................36 Limestone County ........................................................................................................

37 Montague County ........................................................................................................38 Navarro County ...........................................................................................................40 Palo Pinto County ........................................................................................................41 Parker County .............................................................................................................42 Rains County ................................................................................................................43 Red River County ........................................................................................................44 Rockwall County .........................................................................................................45 Smith County ...............................................................................................................46 Somervell County ........................................................................................................47 Stephens County ..........................................................................................................48 Tarrant County ............................................................................................................51 Van Zandt County .......................................................................................................52 Wise County .................................................................................................................53 Wood County ...............................................................................................................

54 Others ...........................................................................................................................

55Trends ...............................................................................................................................................56Chief Economist's Commentary* ...................................................................................................57Local Forecast ..................................................................................................................................59Economic Monitor* .........................................................................................................................

*Reprinted from Real Estate Outlook: Market Trends and Insights. ©2007 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS ®.Used with permission. Reproduction, reprinting, or retransmission of this article in any form (electronic media included) is prohibited without permission. For subscription information please call 1-800-874-6500.

Local Report

Bryan County, OK

1 2 3 4 5 Seller's Market

Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 337 jobs were added to the payrolls of Bryan County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 3.4% during the third quarter to 3% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07

NAAverage Price $218,000

NA# Homes on the Market * 16

NA# Homes Sold ** 1

NA# New Homes Built 16 ***

NAAvg # of Days on Market 152 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2006.

*** During the first two months of 4th quarter.

** May not add to total of zip codes.

Zip Code Average Price Price Change***

Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)

% Change in #Homes Sold

***

Average Dayson Market

% of Asking Price(Sold/List

Price)

Data by Zip Codes for Q4 2006

74731 $218,000 -0.91% 1 0.00% 96.9%152

1

*** % Change of current quarter compared to the same quarter to year ago.

Local Report

Anderson County, TX


Buyer's Market

Anderson County saw 21 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 6.4% during the third quarter to 6% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07

$160,000Average Price $415,000

10# Homes on the Market * 14

1# Homes Sold ** 1

NA# New Homes Built NA ***

208Avg # of Days on Market 12 * Available as of Dec. 31, 2006.




Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


75763 $415,000 35.18% 1 0.00% 96.7%12

2


Local Report

Bosque County, TX


Buyer's Market

Bosque County saw 101 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.8% during the third quarter to 4.4% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07



30# Homes Sold ** 21






Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


76634 $82,600 -39.88% 13 160.00% 93.8%5276649 $75,300 - 2 - 96.2%9376671 $106,200 3.01% 4 -42.86% 96.6%15476689 $30,900 - 1 - 63.9%15076690 $62,800 20.54% 1 -50.00% 101.2%72

3


Local Report

Collin County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 3,863 jobs were added to the payrolls of Collin County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4% during the third quarter to 3.7% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07


4,792# Homes on the Market * 6,018

3,981# Homes Sold ** 2,951

2,981# New Homes Built 1,801 ***





Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


75002 $200,900 4.91% 285 -2.73% 97.3%6275009 $200,000 1.99% 38 -9.52% 96.4%10475013 $359,300 26.56% 152 5.56% 96.6%8075023 $177,400 0.85% 160 0.00% 98.1%5875024 $272,200 -4.52% 69 -25.00% 97.1%4575025 $255,500 3.82% 147 -35.53% 97.2%4875034 $377,500 8.60% 171 8.23% 97.2%6775035 $239,700 15.13% 222 -20.14% 96.6%7575069 $226,100 20.14% 111 46.05% 97.2%64

4


Local Report

Collin County, TX


Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


75070 $238,600 2.84% 401 -0.25% 97.2%6675071 $209,200 17.46% 169 0.00% 96.9%6175074 $160,700 0.00% 104 -6.31% 98.2%6375075 $188,200 4.91% 91 -9.90% 98.2%4975078 $340,200 13.82% 35 -47.76% 96.3%8975093 $478,500 7.62% 138 -17.86% 96.6%6275094 $285,600 6.05% 85 26.87% 95.7%7675097 $62,000 - 1 - 89.9%20775098 $161,500 1.44% 159 -16.32% 98.1%6675164 $86,000 - 2 - 96.1%10075166 $162,200 -33.96% 23 187.50% 91.0%6075173 $126,100 16.65% 15 50.00% 95.0%7175252 $344,600 2.71% 52 -10.34% 96.7%5875287 $346,700 8.62% 42 -23.64% 97.6%4975407 $141,500 24.45% 39 -27.78% 95.5%10775409 $140,200 1.30% 67 24.07% 96.0%9375424 $136,400 28.20% 6 -14.29% 95.6%11175442 $145,100 31.31% 16 -30.43% 98.7%8575454 $185,200 -2.99% 49 19.51% 90.8%91

OTHER $255,200 3.78% 102 -22.73% 97.1%64

5


Local Report

Comanche County, TX


Buyer's Market

Comanche County saw 250 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 5% during the third quarter to 4.5% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07



2# Homes Sold ** 3






Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


76442 $65,800 -37.33% 2 100.00% 96.1%8476444 $50,000 - 1 - 89.4%44

6


Local Report

Cooke County, TX


Buyer's Market

Cooke County saw 77 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 3.9% during the third quarter to 3.6% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07









Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


76240 $103,100 -23.23% 46 -16.36% 94.0%9076250 $127,500 15.91% 1 0.00% 98.8%2276272 $123,000 -32.23% 8 14.29% 95.5%61

OTHER $112,700 -3.26% 3 50.00% 92.5%52

7


Local Report

Dallas County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 12,422 jobs were added to the payrolls of Dallas County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 5.5% during the third quarter to 5% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07



6,611# Homes Sold ** 5,556






Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


75001 $253,200 -3.80% 16 6.67% 97.0%4875006 $152,100 -1.74% 114 12.87% 98.2%5875019 $289,700 1.65% 153 7.75% 97.2%5575038 $526,200 -12.45% 15 25.00% 94.1%8375039 $456,700 15.65% 9 200.00% 98.3%6175040 $106,600 -8.50% 150 -15.73% 98.1%5875041 $103,700 -5.04% 78 13.04% 98.4%6375042 $104,700 8.16% 93 19.23% 99.1%7175043 $142,500 6.98% 166 14.48% 97.7%67

8


Local Report

Dallas County, TX


Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


75044 $194,100 20.86% 142 -5.33% 98.6%7275048 $166,700 -3.42% 72 33.33% 97.3%5775050 $97,000 6.13% 42 10.53% 97.4%6775051 $86,600 -8.94% 63 18.87% 97.6%6775052 $136,000 -4.96% 188 -23.58% 95.4%6475060 $121,100 2.19% 99 -2.94% 97.9%7575061 $131,800 0.46% 71 12.70% 97.5%8075062 $133,700 -13.80% 74 -22.92% 97.0%7175063 $267,100 4.05% 109 3.81% 96.3%6075080 $162,200 -5.92% 108 5.88% 97.9%5675081 $159,500 5.21% 91 -4.21% 98.2%5775082 $170,400 -12.16% 4 -50.00% 97.4%6675088 $144,800 0.56% 101 44.29% 97.4%7275089 $166,800 -4.03% 113 -14.39% 97.0%8275104 $143,500 0.84% 187 9.36% 97.7%8375115 $148,700 -4.31% 186 2.20% 97.8%8675116 $106,500 -2.65% 53 8.16% 97.8%7475134 $120,200 15.13% 102 112.50% 98.5%10075137 $131,600 -3.24% 62 -4.62% 98.9%7975141 $73,000 -39.97% 1 -83.33% 104.4%4575146 $124,200 7.07% 79 31.67% 96.7%8375149 $89,800 -11.79% 158 -17.28% 97.7%7075150 $104,300 -4.14% 139 1.46% 98.2%7175159 $99,500 1.74% 74 89.74% 98.4%8775172 $65,100 31.52% 7 75.00% 97.7%8475180 $78,700 -5.29% 53 17.78% 98.3%10075181 $144,100 0.21% 125 -11.97% 97.7%9275182 $280,100 -2.13% 12 -14.29% 98.2%7475203 $78,700 105.48% 7 250.00% 90.4%7675204 $214,900 3.22% 11 0.00% 92.8%6475205 $1,336,900 -5.34% 66 1.54% 98.2%6575206 $354,300 14.51% 83 9.21% 97.5%7075208 $218,600 0.78% 65 -15.58% 96.4%6775209 $654,700 6.58% 73 -1.35% 96.9%5875210 $32,600 -27.23% 3 -57.14% 93.5%3675211 $98,500 0.00% 72 -16.28% 96.3%69

9


Local Report

Dallas County, TX


Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


75212 $84,400 -9.73% 18 38.46% 98.6%5275214 $371,100 8.83% 148 -17.32% 97.6%7075215 $38,300 -24.31% 14 -12.50% 96.4%3675216 $47,200 -11.11% 65 4.84% 96.8%7175217 $69,700 -3.46% 126 15.60% 97.7%8975218 $235,800 8.07% 75 -17.58% 97.3%5675219 $449,600 -43.47% 9 80.00% 93.4%8075220 $445,600 6.50% 48 -2.04% 95.8%8175223 $215,000 23.56% 19 -20.83% 96.9%5375224 $110,300 25.34% 46 -13.21% 98.5%6675225 $1,006,100 8.44% 65 -24.42% 97.4%4775226 $101,200 1.40% 3 200.00% 93.7%10675227 $82,800 -9.71% 103 4.04% 97.7%8175228 $123,600 -0.80% 157 26.61% 97.9%6875229 $489,400 -2.14% 117 17.00% 96.8%6075230 $671,700 2.47% 86 -4.44% 96.5%6875231 $260,800 -6.52% 24 41.18% 97.9%3975232 $85,100 -3.73% 61 3.39% 98.2%7075233 $104,300 -19.27% 18 -33.33% 96.5%8775234 $162,200 16.86% 78 25.81% 96.9%6475235 $137,000 -20.63% 17 13.33% 95.1%5575236 $108,800 -18.81% 23 64.29% 98.8%6775237 $97,600 -10.79% 6 -45.45% 97.9%5675238 $208,100 -1.33% 71 20.34% 97.4%5275240 $342,300 35.40% 29 123.08% 97.2%8175241 $62,100 -30.54% 42 -12.50% 96.9%8175243 $225,300 3.25% 46 -20.69% 97.5%6275244 $281,400 1.81% 26 -29.73% 97.4%6475246 $152,000 4.90% 5 66.67% 93.9%13075248 $351,000 7.14% 109 7.92% 96.9%7475249 $121,500 2.36% 53 12.77% 99.8%8375253 $93,500 19.41% 17 6.25% 100.2%4575254 $516,200 0.66% 18 28.57% 95.9%68

OTHER $165,900 -9.34% 125 13.64% 97.0%63

10


Local Report

Delta County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 27 jobs were added to the payrolls of Delta County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 5.7% during the third quarter to 5.2% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07



6# Homes Sold ** 11






Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


75432 $80,100 18.67% 9 350.00% 93.0%18575450 $60,000 27.66% 1 0.00% 85.7%39

OTHER $53,500 - 1 - 97.4%96

11


Local Report

Denton County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 3,320 jobs were added to the payrolls of Denton County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.1% during the third quarter to 3.8% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07



3,140# Homes Sold ** 2,285

758# New Homes Built 649 ***





Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


75007 $193,500 8.40% 165 -13.61% 98.6%5975010 $211,100 -7.29% 53 -39.08% 97.7%4375022 $387,100 11.01% 103 -23.70% 97.9%4875028 $236,800 -0.92% 185 -27.73% 98.5%3975056 $214,200 3.43% 192 18.52% 97.9%6175057 $113,700 -7.11% 17 6.25% 97.6%5375065 $161,300 2.80% 44 -24.14% 97.7%6775067 $144,900 -0.21% 160 -5.33% 98.6%5675068 $164,400 1.67% 197 -15.09% 94.0%71

12


Local Report

Denton County, TX


Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


75077 $219,200 -2.88% 146 -27.72% 97.5%6876201 $114,500 -7.44% 23 -23.33% 97.0%5476205 $186,200 1.80% 33 22.22% 96.9%8376207 $138,200 -12.97% 35 -12.50% 94.7%6176208 $210,800 4.51% 37 -28.85% 96.6%7876209 $109,100 2.63% 61 -12.86% 98.0%5676210 $180,000 6.64% 185 -4.15% 97.8%6576226 $308,800 -7.77% 86 36.51% 96.9%8976227 $164,000 13.81% 82 1.23% 97.4%7976247 $155,900 15.31% 58 41.46% 98.6%7376249 $169,700 42.37% 23 27.78% 99.4%6276258 $124,200 -4.83% 19 35.71% 94.5%11976259 $164,000 38.05% 9 -25.00% 99.3%5676262 $235,300 5.19% 70 4.48% 96.5%5876266 $159,300 17.65% 33 -28.26% 97.5%98

OTHER $339,800 9.90% 269 -15.94% 96.9%78

13


Local Report

Ellis County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 701 jobs were added to the payrolls of Ellis County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.9% during the third quarter to 4.4% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07


850# Homes on the Market * 1,089







Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


75119 $107,700 -19.93% 47 11.90% 96.3%10175125 $63,000 -31.00% 8 0.00% 94.2%7975152 $139,400 25.02% 10 -41.18% 95.8%7575154 $152,400 2.49% 93 12.05% 98.3%7775165 $133,900 -5.44% 96 -21.95% 97.9%8675167 $176,800 -6.90% 22 0.00% 98.4%9276041 $37,400 -49.80% 1 0.00% 111.2%13876064 $158,500 -22.83% 5 66.67% 99.8%11676065 $195,000 18.54% 109 10.10% 97.8%82

14


Local Report

Ellis County, TX


Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


76623 $77,300 - 1 - 103.0%48576651 $79,000 -28.31% 7 16.67% 95.0%125

OTHER $160,800 5.44% 9 -18.18% 97.0%91

15


Local Report

Erath County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 156 jobs were added to the payrolls of Erath County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.1% during the third quarter to 3.6% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07









Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


76401 $110,000 -8.18% 56 -17.65% 94.9%10776433 $190,000 -22.45% 2 -33.33% 91.6%27476446 $121,500 -6.61% 7 75.00% 94.9%98

OTHER $305,000 190.48% 1 -50.00% 93.8%85

16


Local Report

Fannin County, TX


Buyer's Market

Fannin County saw 73 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 5.9% during the third quarter to 5.4% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07









Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


75418 $94,400 4.19% 26 8.33% 94.8%11575439 $105,000 - 1 - 102.0%4475446 $79,300 -52.60% 3 -40.00% 75.8%6275447 $95,100 - 2 - 87.5%14075449 $55,000 -72.15% 2 100.00% 88.1%8075452 $103,800 19.17% 7 -12.50% 97.9%6975476 $85,500 29.55% 1 0.00% 98.3%33375479 $161,500 42.67% 2 -60.00% 95.4%4775488 $50,000 - 2 - 91.3%8275490 $112,900 -39.30% 9 12.50% 97.6%114

17


Local Report

Fannin County, TX


Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


OTHER $87,800 -47.04% 2 0.00% 91.2%225

18


Local Report

Franklin County, TX


Buyer's Market

Franklin County saw 58 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.4% during the third quarter to 4.1% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07



11# Homes Sold ** 1






Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


OTHER $50,000 -7.92% 1 0.00% 72.5%16

19


Local Report

Freestone County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 76 jobs were added to the payrolls of Freestone County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.1% during the third quarter to 3.8% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07









Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


75840 $72,900 - 5 - 95.0%9375859 $161,800 -67.96% 2 0.00% 93.8%8375860 $85,000 21.43% 4 300.00% 96.2%55

20


Local Report

Grayson County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 887 jobs were added to the payrolls of Grayson County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.9% during the third quarter to 4.4% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07









Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


75020 $104,700 5.76% 54 -18.18% 95.5%9275021 $83,000 -13.90% 14 -30.00% 97.4%9875058 $215,100 24.55% 8 166.67% 98.1%9175076 $136,700 -10.60% 26 -10.34% 90.7%15475090 $96,200 -7.59% 52 62.50% 97.3%8975092 $121,600 -27.88% 74 12.12% 94.5%12275414 $106,300 -35.30% 6 -14.29% 98.1%8175459 $100,700 -26.17% 9 -10.00% 98.5%7175489 $75,100 29.48% 7 600.00% 93.9%68

21


Local Report

Grayson County, TX


Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


75491 $155,800 47.54% 5 -16.67% 97.4%5575495 $149,900 -16.30% 29 61.11% 95.5%7176233 $116,900 63.96% 6 0.00% 98.9%6476245 $85,100 52.51% 6 20.00% 94.1%6876264 $138,500 - 1 - 97.2%5676271 $111,000 -8.79% 6 0.00% 99.5%7876273 $100,600 -18.48% 24 50.00% 100.8%97

22


Local Report

Hamilton County, TX


Buyer's Market

Hamilton County saw 220 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.7% during the third quarter to 4.5% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07



5# Homes Sold ** 5






Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


76457 $79,700 -13.84% 5 400.00% 94.7%136

23


Local Report

Henderson County, TX


Buyer's Market

Henderson County saw 216 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 5.2% during the third quarter to 4.8% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07









Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


75124 $449,300 -64.76% 4 300.00% 86.9%6675148 $124,800 -37.51% 6 -45.45% 94.5%17075156 $173,100 16.57% 24 -35.14% 93.1%13775163 $158,100 147.81% 3 200.00% 89.5%18075751 $127,800 -6.65% 7 -12.50% 96.5%9775752 $190,000 -1.04% 4 300.00% 95.2%16575782 $85,000 - 2 - 90.0%187

OTHER $118,800 -40.12% 20 33.33% 96.5%105

24


Local Report

Hill County, TX


Buyer's Market

Hill County saw 112 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 5.5% during the third quarter to 5.1% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07









Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


76055 $41,500 -2.35% 1 -66.67% 96.7%7076621 $65,000 -25.97% 1 -50.00% 93.0%876627 $90,300 29.93% 3 -25.00% 97.3%27776636 $127,000 -19.62% 2 100.00% 93.4%2376645 $83,800 -16.12% 18 28.57% 93.8%12376648 $53,000 -21.48% 2 -50.00% 90.2%17776666 $80,000 - 1 - 94.7%076692 $132,300 23.64% 45 125.00% 94.8%143

OTHER $30,000 - 1 - 87.0%36

25


Local Report

Hood County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 229 jobs were added to the payrolls of Hood County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.7% during the third quarter to 4.3% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07









Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


76035 $599,900 - 1 - 100.0%2776048 $187,600 5.45% 85 0.00% 97.2%6576049 $182,800 3.34% 125 3.31% 96.2%7076462 $114,000 -33.33% 4 -20.00% 96.7%3776476 $125,700 -16.14% 6 500.00% 92.2%77

OTHER $67,000 - 1 - 85.9%184

26


Local Report

Hopkins County, TX


Buyer's Market

Hopkins County saw 113 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.4% during the third quarter to 4% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07









Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


75420 $243,400 173.18% 4 33.33% 95.1%40575431 $77,000 208.00% 1 0.00% 97.5%6475433 $117,400 3.16% 3 0.00% 97.0%5175437 $71,000 -45.80% 1 -50.00% 97.3%6275471 $145,000 141.67% 1 0.00% 87.9%2375482 $118,200 11.83% 53 15.22% 93.9%101

27


Local Report

Hunt County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 419 jobs were added to the payrolls of Hunt County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 5.4% during the third quarter to 4.8% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07









Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


75135 $107,000 -16.60% 18 -18.18% 98.0%9175401 $104,100 40.68% 21 50.00% 94.4%8875402 $113,000 5.51% 47 51.61% 95.1%8875422 $119,800 -34.93% 6 20.00% 99.8%11375423 $90,600 167.26% 3 200.00% 98.3%20975428 $118,500 34.35% 13 62.50% 96.9%10075453 $72,000 -17.71% 5 -28.57% 100.8%8075474 $90,600 15.86% 30 -11.76% 97.1%11475496 $94,000 3.98% 4 33.33% 95.3%152

28


Local Report

Hunt County, TX


Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


OTHER $167,800 0.84% 20 11.11% 95.7%97

29


Local Report

Jack County, TX


Buyer's Market

Jack County saw 131 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.7% during the third quarter to 4.5% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07



1# Homes Sold ** 4






Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


76458 $84,400 237.60% 4 300.00% 96.0%120

30


Local Report

Johnson County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 1,189 jobs were added to the payrolls of Johnson County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.7% during the third quarter to 4.3% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07









Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


76009 $84,400 -9.25% 46 6.98% 98.2%8076028 $139,300 3.26% 134 13.56% 96.8%8476031 $100,100 -0.89% 28 3.70% 96.9%6876033 $108,300 -0.82% 88 -10.20% 98.2%6976044 $142,800 51.27% 14 250.00% 95.0%5976050 $129,200 8.21% 10 -9.09% 96.4%10276058 $138,100 26.81% 41 13.89% 97.2%5876059 $86,300 26.35% 6 20.00% 95.6%4176084 $76,500 16.44% 17 41.67% 99.3%93

31


Local Report

Johnson County, TX


Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


76093 $96,400 1.80% 3 -25.00% 99.8%16OTHER $161,200 31.59% 21 -16.00% 96.7%84

32


Local Report

Kaufman County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 451 jobs were added to the payrolls of Kaufman County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.9% during the third quarter to 4.6% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07









Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


75114 $98,300 -21.11% 21 -8.70% 98.6%7575118 $77,300 - 1 - 97.2%275126 $160,900 -0.25% 149 0.68% 95.8%6975142 $111,300 -10.17% 59 55.26% 94.4%7975143 $76,100 -28.81% 13 160.00% 96.1%5575147 $107,400 13.05% 5 150.00% 95.7%2875157 $169,000 - 1 - 99.7%6375158 $119,100 -27.82% 11 83.33% 98.0%7275160 $125,600 10.76% 60 1.69% 96.4%89

33


Local Report

Kaufman County, TX


Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


75161 $100,100 4.82% 9 28.57% 97.2%62OTHER $168,100 -10.63% 13 62.50% 96.9%116

34


Local Report

Lamar County, TX


Buyer's Market

Lamar County saw 308 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 5.7% during the third quarter to 5.4% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07









Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


75416 $61,800 18.85% 1 0.00% 91.6%10675460 $71,100 1.57% 9 350.00% 93.5%4075462 $151,400 172.79% 7 600.00% 96.0%8775473 $145,000 -5.23% 1 0.00% 96.7%72

35


Local Report

Limestone County, TX


Buyer's Market

Limestone County saw 4 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.9% during the third quarter to 4.4% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07



2# Homes Sold ** 2






Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


76642 $102,500 - 1 - 97.6%11OTHER $135,000 - 1 - 97.1%11

36


Local Report

Montague County, TX


Buyer's Market

Montague County saw 8 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.2% during the third quarter to 3.8% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07



25# Homes Sold ** 8






Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


76230 $108,300 7.76% 4 0.00% 96.2%7576255 $105,500 3.74% 2 -60.00% 92.6%15476265 $53,700 -33.37% 2 0.00% 92.3%174

37


Local Report

Navarro County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 153 jobs were added to the payrolls of Navarro County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 5.4% during the third quarter to 4.9% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07









Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


75102 $320,000 172.34% 1 -50.00% 92.8%23775109 $125,100 -26.28% 4 -55.56% 96.2%11075110 $100,400 17.70% 48 11.63% 95.6%8875144 $96,200 12.38% 4 0.00% 95.6%2975153 $65,000 - 2 - 108.4%13475155 $63,500 -23.95% 2 100.00% 99.2%976639 $82,300 2.62% 2 -33.33% 94.5%2476641 $68,100 96.25% 1 0.00% 97.4%16676679 $68,400 -54.40% 4 300.00% 100.9%131

38


Local Report

Navarro County, TX


Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


76681 $83,000 - 1 - 83.8%197OTHER $293,300 111.77% 3 200.00% 98.5%110

39


Local Report

Palo Pinto County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 17 jobs were added to the payrolls of Palo Pinto County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.6% during the third quarter to 4.2% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07









Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


76067 $84,600 -2.42% 36 -7.69% 92.8%7476449 $318,100 -10.60% 8 -11.11% 93.2%10976453 $435,000 157.70% 1 -66.67% 100.0%076472 $31,500 -52.63% 1 -50.00% 100.0%5376475 $338,300 - 4 - 91.8%15576484 $53,500 -71.08% 1 0.00% 93.9%34

OTHER $201,000 -20.62% 3 0.00% 93.3%160

40


Local Report

Parker County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 834 jobs were added to the payrolls of Parker County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.7% during the third quarter to 4.3% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07









Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


76008 $258,400 -22.26% 40 2.56% 97.5%9676082 $130,200 32.45% 61 45.24% 99.1%8076085 $141,600 -3.87% 37 27.59% 96.3%8376086 $112,700 5.33% 65 -10.96% 97.1%6876087 $202,100 -0.54% 82 20.59% 96.8%9776088 $170,400 -11.98% 33 22.22% 98.5%7476487 $75,300 -10.46% 5 25.00% 101.1%160

OTHER $242,700 2.23% 37 -13.95% 95.0%93

41


Local Report

Rains County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 21 jobs were added to the payrolls of Rains County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.4% during the third quarter to 4% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07









Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


75440 $117,300 -21.28% 12 71.43% 100.0%8375472 $99,600 12.16% 4 -20.00% 94.8%316

42


Local Report

Red River County, TX


Buyer's Market

Red River County saw 60 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 5.8% during the third quarter to 5.6% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07



3# Homes Sold ** 1






Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


75436 $135,000 - 1 - 95.7%49

43


Local Report

Rockwall County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 331 jobs were added to the payrolls of Rockwall County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.1% during the third quarter to 3.8% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07









Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


75032 $294,300 9.16% 92 -25.81% 97.7%8475087 $214,400 -0.60% 95 -18.10% 95.0%7975132 $188,700 5.60% 12 -58.62% 94.6%9875189 $152,100 -3.49% 92 64.29% 97.8%103

OTHER $149,000 -9.48% 52 13.04% 98.6%85

44


Local Report

Smith County, TX


Buyer's Market

Smith County saw 170 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.6% during the third quarter to 4.5% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07









Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


75757 $261,800 80.55% 3 200.00% 95.3%18075771 $161,000 2.68% 23 187.50% 95.8%93

45


Local Report

Somervell County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 38 jobs were added to the payrolls of Somervell County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.5% during the third quarter to 3.9% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07









Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


76043 $164,100 18.57% 15 36.36% 95.8%8576070 $103,000 - 1 - 104.0%209

46


Local Report

Stephens County, TX


Buyer's Market

Stephens County saw 101 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.5% during the third quarter to 4.4% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07



3# Homes Sold ** 2






Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


76424 $167,000 - 1 - 100.0%90OTHER $169,500 - 1 - 89.7%68

47


Local Report

Tarrant County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 13,889 jobs were added to the payrolls of Tarrant County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.9% during the third quarter to 4.5% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07



7,140# Homes Sold ** 5,481






Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


76001 $151,300 -0.59% 126 9.57% 98.6%6276002 $144,200 2.56% 164 21.48% 96.5%6576006 $252,200 -12.06% 32 -3.03% 94.0%9276010 $70,800 -10.49% 75 7.14% 98.4%8076011 $146,200 7.82% 21 -12.50% 99.1%8076012 $161,200 -4.45% 69 11.29% 96.6%6776013 $147,400 -3.28% 54 -26.03% 97.1%6376014 $89,900 -3.85% 68 7.94% 98.5%7076015 $117,600 -3.76% 31 -24.39% 97.6%65

48


Local Report

Tarrant County, TX


Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


76016 $175,800 -2.98% 114 -1.72% 96.8%6776017 $146,200 4.80% 158 -16.84% 97.6%6576018 $111,800 -4.20% 106 -9.40% 98.3%6076020 $127,600 -8.60% 65 16.07% 96.4%8776021 $179,700 1.35% 96 -7.69% 97.8%4776022 $128,400 -3.31% 43 48.28% 98.0%5876034 $526,300 14.76% 105 19.32% 97.5%6176036 $147,800 0.48% 81 20.90% 91.6%6976039 $176,700 0.34% 76 13.43% 98.3%5876040 $137,300 1.70% 56 1.82% 97.6%6976051 $218,500 0.46% 114 -24.00% 97.8%4776052 $182,200 10.22% 95 -15.93% 94.5%5276053 $116,900 -9.24% 73 4.29% 98.2%6776054 $206,500 8.23% 57 23.91% 97.4%6476060 $152,400 -11.14% 15 -28.57% 98.8%5476063 $191,600 1.59% 250 -3.10% 96.7%7776092 $601,000 11.15% 109 -2.68% 97.0%8176102 $214,400 - 2 - 96.2%3776103 $86,800 -7.26% 33 -23.26% 98.5%7576104 $76,500 45.99% 15 36.36% 97.0%9676105 $57,600 -1.03% 23 155.56% 96.3%6476106 $70,200 -0.99% 30 -6.25% 96.8%4676107 $227,500 10.44% 83 1.22% 95.3%6776108 $116,100 7.50% 123 1.65% 98.1%8176109 $294,600 -1.04% 39 -42.65% 94.5%6576110 $134,700 -3.37% 42 -8.70% 95.1%6676111 $77,500 -3.13% 47 27.03% 97.9%4776112 $101,100 -14.61% 84 -9.68% 97.2%7676114 $77,100 10.46% 48 92.00% 97.9%5676115 $66,500 3.10% 23 35.29% 99.4%5976116 $145,400 -3.39% 114 32.56% 96.8%6476117 $78,500 -7.43% 70 29.63% 98.4%5876118 $122,500 1.24% 50 2.04% 98.2%5876119 $57,400 -0.52% 46 39.39% 97.6%6576120 $126,100 -4.97% 27 -28.95% 98.1%7676123 $142,700 5.08% 166 4.40% 97.1%84

49


Local Report

Tarrant County, TX


Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


76126 $169,900 16.77% 59 28.26% 97.3%5976131 $138,700 11.41% 166 56.60% 97.0%8676132 $328,000 4.63% 51 -10.53% 95.8%10676133 $107,100 -1.38% 155 9.93% 98.2%6376134 $98,400 6.03% 80 29.03% 97.3%7576135 $130,000 -6.41% 61 -6.15% 98.0%8076137 $132,300 -2.22% 213 -7.39% 98.1%6476140 $103,500 -10.31% 94 36.23% 96.5%7576148 $99,100 -0.50% 117 10.38% 98.5%6276161 $156,000 - 1 - 100.6%15276177 $173,400 29.60% 9 125.00% 99.6%14476179 $172,700 9.23% 188 -0.53% 97.0%7676180 $177,900 2.71% 215 20.79% 97.5%6276182 $433,500 - 1 - 101.0%9776248 $228,300 6.43% 451 -7.77% 96.7%64

OTHER $194,700 -12.22% 302 14.39% 97.6%80

50


Local Report

Van Zandt County, TX


Buyer's Market

Van Zandt County saw 1 layoffs occur during October and November. Despite the decline in employment, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.4% during the third quarter to 4.2% in the first two months of the fourth quarter. Despite the job losses, the labor market remains relatively strong.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07









Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


75103 $150,900 16.89% 20 -31.03% 95.5%10575117 $105,000 -3.05% 3 -66.67% 94.9%6875140 $140,200 74.38% 6 -14.29% 92.5%12375169 $97,000 -29.51% 26 100.00% 97.8%12375754 $83,800 -4.34% 3 0.00% 99.1%6175790 $104,000 -22.68% 4 -42.86% 91.8%143

OTHER $111,100 9.46% 5 25.00% 95.9%106

51


Local Report

Wise County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 456 jobs were added to the payrolls of Wise County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 4.4% during the third quarter to 3.8% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07









Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


76023 $99,100 -28.55% 7 16.67% 95.0%6476071 $192,700 17.36% 5 -16.67% 97.8%5476073 $145,200 -9.70% 11 -21.43% 98.0%10876078 $129,200 -20.74% 30 76.47% 94.7%6276225 $101,100 -23.47% 11 57.14% 95.2%16376234 $156,000 -0.26% 30 -3.23% 96.9%8676426 $105,100 -34.15% 17 -37.04% 97.1%9376431 $106,100 13.72% 6 100.00% 98.9%82

OTHER $187,000 98.09% 9 0.00% 96.3%82

52


Local Report

Wood County, TX


Buyer's Market

In the first two months of the fourth quarter, 86 jobs were added to the payrolls of Wood County. As a result of these new jobs, the average monthly unemployment rate fell from 5% during the third quarter to 4.5% for October and November. The strong employment climate may help to create demand for home purchases.

Labor Market :

Housing Market :

(Forecast)Q3' 06 Q4' 06 Q1' 07









Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


75410 $160,000 50.94% 1 -66.67% 100.0%4375494 $101,200 4.55% 10 -16.67% 93.2%8575497 $184,600 -32.87% 4 300.00% 95.7%5475773 $150,400 42.29% 4 0.00% 95.0%15575783 $143,700 -51.29% 3 50.00% 92.1%79

OTHER $57,600 -68.00% 1 0.00% 96.8%180

53


Local Report

Others


Total #Homes Sold

(Quarter)


***



Price)


74728 $217,500 - 2 - 91.6%6575455 $30,000 - 1 - 80.0%4575501 $45,000 60.71% 1 0.00% 100.0%3975551 $48,200 - 1 - 90.8%4875563 $1,651,600 - 1 - 91.8%18375656 $167,000 - 1 - 90.3%2175686 $33,400 - 1 - 100.2%3875979 $63,500 - 1 - 91.4%3576430 $29,900 - 1 - 87.9%13776705 $76,300 - 1 - 106.0%18076801 $60,000 -62.76% 1 0.00% 100.2%5776825 $45,000 - 1 - 75.1%5876877 $30,000 - 1 - 86.0%6279529 $53,000 - 1 - 88.5%55

54


55

Trends

Where the Sales Are By Ken Fears Manager, Regional Economics Back in October of 2005, mortgage rates began what was to be a 10 month climb. At its peak the 30-year fixed rate mortgage reached a monthly average of 6.76%. Since then, mortgage rates have moderated and currently stand at 6.22% according to Freddie Mac. Even at this rate, though, climbing rates have done their damage. The payment-shock that potential buyers experienced when they did the numbers last fall had a large psychological effect. The monthly payments that these would-be buyers faced surged in a matter of months. For many, this increase pushed them out of the range of homeownership. While others, convinced of the instability of the market, chose to move to the sideline and wait for the market to settle. The immediate effect was a sharp decrease in sales, while prices remained relatively steady. But favorable income and employment information tells us that strong levels of demand remain lurking in the shadows, looking for buying opportunities. Furthermore there has been much speculation that sales at the upper levels have been hit hardest and that demand at the lower price ranges remains robust.

Price Range Total Home Sales 2005 Q4

Total Home Sales 2006 Q4

Percentage Change

<$200K 14,208 3,806 -73.2% $200K-$299K 3,088 2,991 -3.1% $300K-$399K 1,072 1,106 3.2% $400K-$599K 656 762 16.2%

$600K> 521 566 8.6% Now that the market has had a year to absorb the impact of rising mortgage rates, it is worth identifying its effects and which sectors have proven the most resilient. Based on the sales information from the fourth quarter of 2006 (October, November, and December) and comparing it with the same time period in 2005, we see that:

• The most homes are being sold in the lower price ranges. • The fewest homes are sold in the upper price ranges.

• Compared to last fall, the upper price ranges have proven to be the most resilient in terms

of retaining their level of sales.

• However, sales have softened most in the lower price range. So how has the area covered by North Texas Real Estate Information Systems faired relative to the rest of the country? Locally, sales are off by 0.4%, which leads the national average of -10.1%. We also find that there does not appear to be a build up of demand at the lower price levels. Looking forward, keeping monthly payments in a reasonable range will be critical to continued sales growth. With mortgage rates steady, but likely to increase moderately, some additional willingness on the part of sellers to make price concessions will help move homes. By years end, though, we expect sales growth to flatten out in most local markets and to even gain traction in a few.

Chief Economist’s Commentary

56

An Old Year of Contraction; A New Year of Stabilityby David Lereah, Chief Economist

We begin the New Year with a hint of optimism. The glass was half empty in 2006 – home sales fellthroughout the year. But the glass looks to be half full in 2007. While property speculation has ceased, signsof a return to home buying have surfaced and inventory levels have topped out. REALTORS® and lendersa like are encouraged, but guarded, about 2007.

Last year was a year of contraction, a correction that was sorely needed after five years of a boominghousing market expansion. Home prices were inflated and property investors (and speculators) wereeverywhere at the end of 2005. That set the stage for 2006 to spiral downward. Home buyers stayed onthe sidelines because they could not afford the lofty-priced homes in the boom-inflicted regions. Somehouseholds also postponed buying because they believed prices would eventually drop, making them betteroff buying later rather than now. Property speculators fled, dumping inventories. Meanwhile, homeownerslooking to sell sat stubbornly tied to their listing prices.

Let’s be clear, though. The sky never did actually fall in 2006— or, to use that phrase that the media love,there were no “bubbles” bursting. But air did come out of some inflated balloons. According to our NationalAssociation of REALTORS® latest estimates for last year, existing home sales were down 8.2 percent froma year earlier. Similarly, new home sales were down 17.4 percent and housing starts were down 12.5percent. Our nation’s housing sector suffered a contraction, inhibiting over all GDP growth.

But 2007 is a new year and with it brings a cautious confidence and hopefulness. Home sales appear tohave bottomed out, having reached a cyclical low in September of last year. And in recent months, homesales are inching up, not down. Existing home sales experienced two consecutive monthly, albeit modest,gains from September to November. Inventories have stabilized, with the nation’s months’ supply hoveringaround 7.3 months since July of last year.

What all this means is that potential home buyers have amore favorable backdrop for buying today. It isnow a buyers market. Sellers are more flexible now, reducing prices and/or paying part of the closing costs.High inventories are now a positive rather than a negative for property buyers. Rising inventories in 2006reflected a deteriorating market place, keeping buyers on the sidelines. Stable inventories in 2007 representmore choices for buyers. Mortgage rates continue to hover near cyclical lows, keeping financing costs low.And depending on where you live, affordability conditions are most likely improving. Wages (income) areregistering healthy rates of growth, while home price growth is flat or down, broadening a household’sfinancial capacity to purchase property.

Yes, housing was bed-ridden at the end of last year. Existing home sales hit bottom during the fourth quarterof 2006. But after a frenzied five-year real estate boom, a reasonable prescription for our nation’s housingsector is regular rest and a healthy regimen of exercise. I expect housing to get back on its feet in 2007. Ourforecast calls for modest quarterly gains throughout this year, but year-over-year, home sales are expectedto fall by a modest 1.2 percent. New home sales are not expected to rebound until the third quarter of thisyear so year-over-year sales are expected to fall by a larger 9.7 percent.

Looking back, 2006 was a year of contraction. But looking forward, 2007 will represent a year of stability.Cheers to the New Year. Home buyers have a more favorable backdrop for buying today. It is now abuyers market.

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Forecast

The ForecastBy Lawrence Yun, Senior Research Forecaster

National OutlookDespite all the news headlines over the past year about the housing market bubble and housing market slump,the final figures for 2006 actually look quite respectable. Home prices squeaked out a gain of 1.1% for theyear. That would mark 39 straight years of positive home price growth out of 39 years of reliable tracking ofthe data. Existing home sales in 2006 posted 6.48 million units — a 8.4% decline from 2005, but still the thirdbest year on record. The more cyclical new home sales fell by 17.3% to 1.06 million in 2006 for the fourthbest year on record. All in all, not that bad.

With the economy and job market performing nicely, 2007 will likely bring another respectable housing year.The latest fourth quarter economic expansion was much stronger than anticipated. GDP grew by 3.5% in thefourth quarter of 2006 — compared to the 2.4% originally forecast. The job market also is stronger. Aregular once-a-year benchmark revision by the Labor Department shows that it had undercounted payrollemployment by three quarters of a million people for most of 2006. That’s almost like saying that all of thejobs in the Super-Bowl celebrating Indianapolis area were left out of the original count and are only now beingadded to the official figures.

The current unemployment rate of 4.6% and the 2.15 million net new job additions over the past 12 monthsare both indications that the state of the U.S. economy is all fine and good. Record stock market and recordhousing market valuations also lifted the aggregate U.S. household net worth to $54 trillion — the highestever. That is five times as high as the U.S. annual consumption. In another words, we have enough wealthto buy the same amount of things and maintain the same standard of living for the next five years withouteven bothering to work.

But the U.S. will be working. It is part of the American spirit to want to accumulate even more wealth. Jobadditions overall should be close to 2 million in 2007. With mortgage rates projected to remain favorablethroughout 2007 (averaging 6.6%), the 2 million new jobs would typically lead to 250,000-350,000 more homesales. But we are still in an atypical year with a high housing inventory overhang brought on by the exit ofinvestors/speculators. The inventory needs to thin out before the housing market revs back up to cruisingspeed. Home sales are, therefore, projected to not increase in 2007. But come 2008 and beyond, a steady3% to 5% increase in home sales will be the norm. Home prices by then will also begin to outpace CPIinflation growth. Housing will again prove it can provide attractive long-term investment returns.

Local OutlookAbout 12% of all home sales were for second homes (investor rental homes and vacations homes) in the pastthree years in the local area. Therefore, there is a little risk of investor “dumping” properties onto the marketover the short term. With the job growth continuing to move nicely, the local housing market should continueits expansion. But some weakness associated with confidence (due to the slumps in the other parts of thecountry) may dampen enthusiasm to buy over the coming months. Home sales therefore could be neutral in2007 - neither a measurable increase nor decrease. Home sales will then rise 5% in 2008. Price growth willbe sluggish in 2007 in order to work off the excess inventory, but will easily outpace the inflation rate by 2008,and thereby providing solid financial returns to ownership.

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Forecast

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2005 2006 2007 2008U.S. EconomyAnnual Growth RateReal GDP 5.6 2.6 2.0 3.5 2.5 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.4 2.8 3.2Nonfarm Payroll Employment 2.2 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.6 1.2 1.7 1.9 1.4 1.4Consumer Prices 2.2 5.0 2.9 -2.2 3.1 2.6 2.7 2.4 3.4 3.2 2.0 2.6Real Disposable Income 4.6 -1.5 4.1 5.4 4.7 2.9 3.1 2.9 1.2 2.7 3.7 3.2Consumer Confidence 106 107 104 107 109 107 107 106 100 106 107 108

PercentUnemployment Rate 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.8 5.1 4.6 4.7 4.8

Interest Rates, PercentFed Funds Rate 4.5 4.9 5.3 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 3.2 5.0 5.3 4.83-Month T-Bill Rate 4.4 4.7 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 3.1 4.7 5.0 4.6Prime Rate 7.4 7.9 8.3 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.3 8.3 6.2 8.0 8.3 7.8Corporate Aaa Bond Yield 5.4 5.9 5.7 5.4 5.6 5.8 5.9 6.0 5.2 5.6 5.8 6.010-Year Government Bond 4.6 5.1 4.9 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.0 4.3 4.8 4.9 5.030-Year Government Bond 4.6 5.1 5.0 4.7 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.3 4.6 4.9 5.1 5.3

Mortgage Rates, percent30-Year Fixed Rate 6.2 6.6 6.6 6.3 6.4 6.6 6.7 6.7 5.9 6.4 6.6 6.71-Year Adjustable 5.3 5.6 5.7 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4 4.5 5.5 5.5 5.2

National Housing IndicatorsThousandsExisting Single-Family Sales 6,790 6,687 6,280 6,243 6,354 6,373 6,466 6,550 7,075 6480 6436 6,635New Single-Family Sales 1,111 1,100 1,007 1,061 988 954 944 959 1,283 1061 961 971Housing Starts 2,123 1,873 1,714 1,564 1,518 1,500 1,510 1,530 2,068 1801 1,515 1,562Single-Family Units 1,747 1,530 1,401 1,233 1,196 1,165 1,168 1,186 1,716 1464 1,179 1,216Multifamily Units 376 343 313 331 322 335 343 344 352 337 336 346Residential Construction* 619 601 570 541 514 503 500 504 608 583 505 518

Percent Change -- Year AgoExisting Single-Family Sales -2.2 -7.0 -12.5 -10.1 -6.4 -4.7 3.0 4.9 9.8 -8.4 -0.7 3.1New Single-Family Sales -11.5 -14.3 -22.4 -17.1 -11.0 -13.3 -6.2 -9.6 10.8 -17.3 -9.4 1.0Housing Starts 2.6 -9.3 -18.4 -24.1 -28.5 -19.9 -11.9 -2.2 5.2 -12.9 -15.9 3.1Single-Family Units 2.6 -10.4 -19.8 -28.2 -31.6 -23.8 -16.6 -3.8 6.6 -14.7 -19.5 3.2Multifamily Units 2.9 -3.8 -11.3 -3.1 -14.3 -2.2 9.3 4.0 -0.9 -4.3 -0.3 2.9Residential Construction 6.1 -1.5 -8.1 -12.6 -16.8 -16.3 -12.3 -6.8 10.3 -4.2 -13.3 2.6

National Home PricesThousands of DollarsExisting Home Prices 218.7 226.7 225.0 219.3 216.5 229.6 230.4 225.7 219.6 222.0 226.2 233.4New Home Prices 244.8 246.1 236.2 237.3 247.5 249.3 239.7 242.5 240.9 245.3 249.8 258.3

Percent Change -- Year AgoExisting Home Prices 9.5 3.0 -1.0 -2.7 -1.0 1.3 2.4 2.9 12.4 1.1 1.9 3.2New Home Prices 6.5 6.9 -0.2 -1.2 1.1 1.3 1.5 2.2 9.0 1.8 1.8 3.4

Local RegionPayroll Jobs (in thousands) 2802.0 2844.0 2849.9 2883.2 2863.6 2909.4 2921.1 2958.2 2764.6 2844.8 2913.1 2988.8Home Sales 19637 27138 25413 19961 18989 26460 25896 20759 86930 92149 92104 96433Home Prices (in thousand $) 187.8 200.1 195.1 193.1 187.4 200.1 198.1 198.1 189.4 194.6 196.5 204.3

Percent Change -- Year AgoJobs 3.5% 3.2% 2.7% 2.3% 2.2% 2.3% 2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.9% 2.4% 2.6%Home Sales 11.8% 11.6% 1.2% 0.1% -3.3% -2.5% 1.9% 4.0% 9.4% 6.0% 0.0% 4.7%Home Prices 4.1% 4.3% 2.1% 0.5% -0.2% 0.0% 1.5% 2.6% 4.9% 2.7% 1.0% 4.0%

Quarterly figures are seasonally adjusted annual rates.* Billion dollarsSource: Forecast produced using Macroeconomic Advisers quarterly model of the U.S. economy.Assumptions and simulations by Dr. David Lereah and Dr. Lawrence Yun.

Economic and Housing Market Outlook: February 2007

2006 2007

Mortgage Rates The 30-year fixed mortgage rate dipped to 6.14% inDecember – its lowest level since October 2005. The one-year adjustablerate was 5.45% in December.The slower housing market – compared to ayear ago – is helping keep rates low. Long-term rates are expected to risemoderately in 2007 to the mid 6% range.

Existing Home Sales rose for a second consecutive month inNovember,posting 6.28 million units (seasonally adjusted annualized rate).Sales have been bouncing around the 6.2-6.3 million level for the past fivemonths, indicating the market is stabilizing. Housing inventory decreased by40,000 units, and is at a 7.3 months’ supply at the current sales pace.

New Home Sales posted 1.05 million units in November (seasonallyadjusted annualized rate) – a 3.4% increase from October’s pace and thethird monthly increase in the past four months. New home inventory fell toa 6.3 months’ supply, higher than the level a year ago, but very close to a“balanced”market.Housing Starts rose 7% in November after having tumbled inOctober.Total starts posted 1.588 million units (seasonally adjusted,annualized). Multifamily starts were essentially unchanged, while single-family units rose by 96,000. Even so, housing starts are 26% lower thanthey were a year ago.

Employment Non-farm payrolls increased by 167,000 in December –beating most analysts’ expectations. November’s job creation figure wasrevised upward by 30,000. From December 2005 to December 2006, 1.8million net new jobs were added to the economy.

Purchase Applications The Mortgage Bankers Association’s purchaseapplications index rose in December to its highest level in 12 months to424.8.Declining mortgage rates and strong job growth contributed to bothpurchase and refinance activities.

Housing Affordability continues to improve. NAR’s housingaffordability index was 110.5 in November – the fourth consecutivemonthly increase and above the level in November 2005. The increase isdue to continuing low interest rates, and home price declines.

Inflation The consumer price index (CPI) was flat in November, as wasthe core index, which excludes the food and energy components. Energyprices decreased slightly – by 0.2%– in November. Price growth willlikely average a mild 0.2% monthly increase over the next three months,assuming moderate increases in fuel and heating costs as the winter getsinto full swing.

Economic Monitor This table reflects data available throughJanuary 5, 2007.

Nov 06 6.27Dec 06 6.14Dec 05 6.27

Slow rise, butcomfortable below7% for 2007.

Monthly IndicatorForecastRecent

Statistics

Likely DirectionOver the Next

Six Months

Oct 06 6,240Nov 06 6,280Nov 05 7,030

Modest but steadyrise

Fewer new homesbeing built andfewer new homesales opportunity

More cuts needed tobring down exces-sive inventory

Job gains to besimilar in thecoming months

Rising existing homesales (85% of themarket) more thanoffset thedecliningnew home sales.

Wages growing at 4% –more than double thepace of home pricegrowth of 1% to 2%

Inflation declining,partly helped bytumbling oil prices

Notes: All rate are seasonally adjusted. New home sales, existing home sales, and housing starts are shown in thousands. Employment growth is shown asmonth-to-month change in thousands. Inflation is shown as the month-to-month change in the Consumer Price Index. Sources: NAR, Bureau of theCensus, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Freddie Mac, and the Mortgage Bankers Association

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Oct 06 1,013Nov 06 1,047Nov 05 1,236

Oct 06 1,488Nov 06 1,588Nov 05 2,131

Nov 06 154Dec 06 167Dec 05 145

Nov 06 405.8Dec 06 428.8Dec 05 455.5

Oct 06 108.0Nov 06 110.5Nov 05 106.0

Oc 06 -0.5%Nov 06 0.0%Nov 05 3.5%

Documents

Economic and Market Watch Report - NTREIS · # Homes on the Market * 69 79 # Homes Sold ** 30 21 # New Homes Built NA NA *** Avg # of Days on Market 109 81 * Available as of Dec

Economic and Market Watch Report - NTREIS · # Homes on the Market * 69 79 # Homes Sold 30 21 # New Homes Built NA NA * Avg # of Days on Market 109 81 * Available as of Dec