Economic model of transgenic crop adoption

Ian McFarlane, Julian Park, Graziano Ceddia

Background:

Previous research in this area

The AMIGA* Project

University of Reading’s involvement

Economic model

*Assessing and Monitoring Impacts of Genetically modified plants on Agro-ecosystems

Model features:

• Dynamic 5-year simulation• EU divided into 5 Regions• Crops selected from menu of crops for given

Region• Potential Yield of crop recalculated each

month as a function of:– Weed Pressure– Pest Pressure Risk (stochastic)– Field Management– (future option: Climate Change effects)

Regions:

Regions:

[These regions are defined in the AMIGA work program]

EU Regions:

• For the AMIGA work packages, four regions were selected based on the Natura 2000* approach (Boreal, Atlantic, Continental, Mediterranean)

• The fifth region (Balkans), includes two countries that belong to four Natura different zones.

*Natura 2000 is an EU wide network of nature protection areas established under the 1992 Habitats Directive.

Crops by Region:

‘000 ha year: 2008 [Eurostat]

Model data:

• Crop hectares (by Member State) from Eurostat• Regional features (e.g. incidence of pests)• Economic variables (includes GM seed price

policies)• Farm management costs

- Data input via set of spreadsheets- Calculations performed in VBA (Visual Basic for

Excel App)- Data output into new sheets in new workbooks

Rotations    year:        

region rotation 1 2 3 4 5

1 1 feedmaize feedmaize rape springwheat feedmaize

  2 soya springwheat feedmaize springwheat feedmaize

  3 feedmaize sugarbeet feedmaize feedmaize rape

  4 springwheat rape feedmaize springwheat springwheat

  5 soya feedmaize springwheat sugarbeet feedmaize

2 1 springwheat feedmaize rape springwheat feedmaize

  2 rape springwheat feedmaize springwheat feedmaize

  3 feedmaize springwheat feedmaize rape springwheat

  4 springwheat feedmaize springwheat feedmaize rape

  5 feedmaize rape springwheat feedmaize springwheat

3 1 winterwheat potato feedmaize rape springwheat

  2 feedmaize springwheat sugarbeet springwheat sugarbeet

  3 potato springwheat potato feedmaize springwheat

  4 springwheat feedmaize rape springwheat feedmaize

  5 feedmaize springwheat soya feedmaize springwheat

4 1 winterwheat rape winterwheat rape winterwheat

  2 springwheat potato springwheat potato springwheat

  3 winterwheat sugarbeet springwheat winterwheat potato

  4 springwheat potato sugarbeet springwheat springwheat

  5 winterwheat springwheat winterwheat sugarbeet springwheat

5 1 springwheat sugarbeet other springwheat springwheat

  2 other springwheat springwheat sugarbeet springwheat

  3 springwheat other springwheat other springwheat

  4 springwheat springwheat potato springwheat other

  5 potato other springwheat springwheat potato

In proportion to hectares cultivated by region in 2009 [Eurostat]

Model schematic

Model details:

Weed Pressure

Function of :- previous cultivar on this plot- Herbicide application(s)

Model details:

Pest Pressure

Function of:- Previous application(s) of pesticide- Random occurrence of pest pressure- Current pest management policy

Model details:

Field Management

Function of:- Tillage policy- Fertiliser application(s)- Previous cultivar

Economic Model

Loop in one month steps for each: year > region > plot > crop

Model interface:VBA User Form for initialisation

Economic variables

- Seed cost- Crop value- Pest control cost(s)- Weed control cost(s)- Fertiliser cost- Labour cost- Coexistence cost

Result format:runID: xx-mmddyy             GM    

    €'000 '000 '000 '000     €'000 '000 '000 '000

          gross           gross

  ha seed control sales margin   ha seed control sales margin

winterwheat                      

springwheat                      

feedmaize                      

soya                      

rape                      

cotton                      

potato                      

sugarbeet                      

rice                      

other                      

HT maize                      

IR maize                      

HTIR maize                      

HT soya                      

HT rape                      

IR cotton                      

GM potato                      

Key Challenges

Yield data for GM crops in the EU

Estimating weed and pest pressures

Price estimates for GM products in the EU

Assumptions about typical rotations

Crop (event) availability in the future

[Include findings from sister groups in the project]

References:

Brookes G. (2012) European arable crop profit margins GBC Ltd

Eurostat: Crops products [apro_cpp_crop]http://appsso.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/nui/show.do?dataset=apro_cpp_crop

Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) http://circa.europa.eu/Public/irc/agri/rica/

library?l=/micro-economic_analyses/standard_results

John Nix Farm Management Pocketbook (42nd edn) http://www.thepocketbook.biz/

------------------

Gomez-Barbero M., et al (2008) Adoption and performance of the first GM crop introduced in EU agriculture: Bt maize in Spain. JRC-IPTS Report 22778

Park J., et al (2011) The impact of the EU regulatory constraint of transgenic crops on farm income. New Biotechnology, 28(4), 396-406