EconomyPolitics, 2010 Global 10 Yr Growth Rates

8/7/2019 EconomyPolitics, 2010 Global 10 Yr Growth Rates

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Updated Jan 15, 2011

www.economypolitics.com

EconomyPolitics 2011

10 year GDP growth rates

By Taylor R. Cottam, CFA, FRM




EconomyPolitics 2nd Annual 10 year growth rates The top fastest growing countries over the next 10 years (above 25 MM):

This is the second in a three part series where we identify the most attractive international investment

opportunities for the next ten years. We start out by looking at economic efficiency, i.e. the

fundamental freedoms and legal framework, which facilitates successful investing. Second we look at

growth rates and finally we look at places where economic opportunity will be taking place.

When you look at future growth rates, it is a function of economic freedom and GDP per capita. All

other things equal, high economic freedom and low GDP per capita, both lead to high economic growth.

EconomyPolitics Methodology

Estimating next year’s GDP growth is hard to get right. To an investor looking to place capital, it is easy

to confuse next year’s economic growth with long term potential. As we are no likelier than the next

economist to “get it right” in the short term, we have chosen to focus on longer–term trends, i.e. the ten

year growth rates, which in the end dominate.

We forecast how long it would take for a country to reach the prosperity level of the United States as

measured by GDP per capita. If a country was free and open, they become on par to the United States

in 40 years. After World War II, Europe was poor and destitute and its infrastructure was destroyed, but

it was relatively free and open for business. Many of the more open ones caught up in terms of GDP per

capita to the United States in about 40 years.




We use the 40 year as an anchor and assume that any country that is free and open will catch up in 40

years. The lower the GDP per capita, the faster the growth. We also make adjustments for population

growth and economic efficiency.

So where are the places that will grow the most over the coming decade? The continent that stands as a

bright spot for growth. This is the second year that we have highlighted Africa as a continent of hope.

Rank Country Population Efficiency

Score

GDP per

cap

10 yr.

growth

1 Rwanda 10,276,000 0.44 $900 10.52%

2 Uganda 33,888,000 0.35 $1,300 9.98%

3 Ghana 24,297,000 0.48 $1,500 9.84%

4 Zambia 13,148,000 0.47 $1,500 9.49%

5 Kenya 40,901,000 0.36 $1,600 8.98%

6 Kyr.gyzstan 5,558,000 0.43 $2,100 8.54%

7 Madagascar 20,216,000 0.33 $1,000 8.38%

8 Ethiopia 81,764,000 0.66 $900 8.33%

9 Jordan 6,464,000 0.41 $5,300 8.23%

10 Georgia 4,371,000 0.44 $4,800 8.14%

11 Malawi 15,628,000 0.49 $900 8.13%

12 Mozambique 23,304,000 0.36 $900 7.98%

13 Tanzania 44,644,000 0.47 $1,400 7.81%

14 India 1,192,407,000 0.38 $3,400 7.77%

15 Vietnam 86,639,000 0.47 $3,100 7.76%

16 Bangladesh 165,498,000 0.51 $1,600 7.73%17 Mongolia 2,711,000 0.49 $3,300 7.63%

18 Philippines 94,062,000 0.33 $3,500 7.44%

19 Indonesia 234,100,000 0.39 $4,300 7.31%

20 Burkina Faso 16,247,000 0.58 $1,200 7.13%

21 Thailand 63,795,000 0.64 $8,700 7.11%

22 Pakistan 171,576,000 0.44 $2,600 7.03%

23 Mali 14,913,000 0.58 $1,200 6.92%

24 Nicaragua 5,848,000 0.46 $2,900 6.91%

25 Peru 29,499,000 0.42 $9,200 6.87%

26 Morocco 32,146,000 0.55 $4,900 6.79%27 Guatemala 14,323,000 0.29 $5,200 6.78%

28 El Salvador 6,267,000 0.48 $7,300 6.76%

29 Moldova 3,564,000 0.56 $2,300 6.66%

30 China 1,343,099,000 0.48 $7,400 6.66%

31 Paraguay 6,501,000 0.59 $4,900 6.65%

32 Honduras 7,617,000 0.65 $4,200 6.57%




33 Senegal 12,857,000 0.53 $1,600 6.56%

34 Egypt 78,901,000 0.36 $6,200 6.55%

35 Armenia 3,228,000 0.37 $5,800 6.51%

36 Sri Lanka 20,428,000 0.63 $4,900 6.37%

37 Chile 17,160,000 0.49 $15,500 6.27%

38 Namibia 2,192,000 0.42 $6,900 6.23%39 Benin 9,204,000 0.37 $1,500 6.11%

40 Nigeria 157,870,000 0.55 $2,400 6.06%

41 Colombia 45,859,000 0.63 $9,800 6.01%

42 Tunisia 10,430,000 0.31 $9,500 5.86%

43 Malaysia 28,799,000 0.56 $14,700 5.86%

44 South Africa 49,730,000 0.56 $10,700 5.81%

45 Nepal 29,947,000 0.66 $1,200 5.77%

46 Panama 3,507,000 0.52 $12,700 5.55%

47 Mauritius 1,298,000 0.61 $13,500 5.48%

48 Albania 3,187,000 0.54 $8,000 5.46%49 Mexico 108,777,000 0.30 $13,800 5.37%

50 Costa Rica 4,643,000 0.56 $11,400 5.23%

51 Turkey 72,239,000 0.31 $12,300 5.21%

52 Macedonia 2,054,000 0.51 $9,400 5.19%

53 Jamaica 2,740,000 0.50 $8,400 5.04%

54 Côte d'Ivoire 21,530,000 0.73 $1,700 4.97%

55 Oman 2,936,000 0.77 $25,800 4.94%

56 Lesotho 2,070,000 0.55 $1,700 4.92%

57 Cameroon 19,955,000 0.67 $2,300 4.86%

58 Botswana 1,978,000 0.61 $13,100 4.84%59 New Zealand 4,358,000 0.42 $28,000 4.75%

60 Brazil 194,553,000 0.60 $10,900 4.70%

61 Bolivia 10,015,000 0.24 $4,800 4.67%

62 Azerbaijan 8,961,000 0.51 $11,000 4.63%

63 Kazakhstan 15,835,000 0.28 $12,500 4.51%

64 Romania 21,469,000 0.60 $11,500 4.41%

65 Cyprus 798,000 0.55 $21,000 4.39%

66 Lithuania 3,340,000 0.34 $15,900 4.36%

67 United Arab Emirates 4,775,000 0.07 $40,200 4.32%

68 Dominican Republic 10,241,000 0.80 $8,600 4.27%

69 Syr.ia 22,386,000 0.85 $4,800 4.22%

70 Bosnia and

Herzegovina

3,792,000 0.55 $6,600 4.19%

71 Uruguay 3,377,000 0.72 $13,600 4.18%

72 Bulgaria 7,545,000 0.59 $12,800 4.10%

73 Guyana 764,000 0.72 $6,800 4.10%

74 Mauritania 3,385,000 0.67 $2,100 3.97%




75 Estonia 1,332,000 0.48 $19,000 3.97%

76 Latvia 2,240,000 0.76 $14,500 3.96%

77 Burundi 8,589,000 0.73 $300 3.86%

78 Montenegro 618,000 0.65 $9,900 3.81%

79 Serbia 9,863,000 0.40 $11,000 3.77%

80 Israel 7,613,000 0.83 $29,500 3.68%81 Slovakia 5,425,000 0.33 $22,200 3.54%

82 Poland 38,082,000 0.67 $18,800 3.48%

83 Hungary 10,006,000 0.87 $19,000 3.47%

84 Algeria 35,317,000 0.75 $7,400 3.45%

85 Portugal 10,660,000 0.16 $23,000 3.40%

86 Ecuador 14,229,000 0.87 $7,800 3.36%

87 Ukraine 45,712,000 0.41 $6,700 3.21%

88 Ireland 4,510,000 0.66 $37,600 3.10%

89 Australia 22,347,000 0.81 $41,300 3.09%

90 Canada 34,157,000 0.83 $39,600 3.07%91 South Korea 48,463,000 0.66 $30,200 3.04%

92 Croatia 4,433,000 0.63 $17,500 3.01%

93 United Kingdom 61,807,000 0.35 $35,100 2.97%

94 Denmark 5,549,000 0.36 $37,000 2.88%

95 Czech Republic 10,468,000 0.68 $25,600 2.82%

96 Argentina 40,564,000 0.80 $15,000 2.80%

97 France 65,444,000 0.66 $33,300 2.78%

98 Russia 141,242,000 0.48 $15,900 2.75%

99 Iran 74,782,000 0.76 $11,200 2.75%

100 Finland 5,358,000 0.61 $35,300 2.74%101 Kuwait 3,092,000 0.78 $51,700 2.73%

102 Bahrain 802,000 0.75 $40,400 2.55%

103 Hong Kong 7,046,000 0.50 $45,600 2.51%

104 Spain 46,014,000 0.87 $29,500 2.49%

105 Japan 127,381,000 0.50 $34,200 2.47%

106 Taiwan 23,125,000 0.53 $35,100 2.47%

107 Slovenia 2,049,000 0.85 $28,400 2.41%

108 Germany 81,850,000 0.37 $35,900 2.35%

109 Sweden 9,346,000 0.75 $39,000 2.34%

110 Netherlands 16,660,000 0.96 $40,500 2.29%

111 Switzerland 7,787,000 0.42 $42,900 2.28%

112 United States 310,874,000 0.70 $47,400 2.27%

113 Iceland 322,000 0.88 $38,400 2.19%

114 Belgium 10,766,000 0.37 $37,900 2.00%

115 Austria 8,360,000 0.65 $40,300 1.83%

116 Italy 60,188,000 0.80 $30,700 1.83%

117 Singapore 5,044,000 0.52 $62,200 1.57%




118 Greece 11,277,000 0.87 $30,200 1.53%

119 Chad 11,522,000 0.12 $1,600 1.25%

120 Angola 18,894,000 0.24 $8,700 1.22%

121 Venezuela 29,016,000 0.20 $12,600 1.17%

122 Zimbabwe 12,424,000 0.95 $100 1.06%

123 Norway 4,867,000 0.60 $59,100 0.70%124 Luxembourg 499,000 0.83 $81,800 -0.07%

Regional Differences

The region that should grow fastest is Africa. We have projected the 10 year growth rate for Africa at

6.32%. Africa’s young population is growing fast, they are very poor and they are finally starting to end

the cycle of war and replace it with a system of good governance. All those things increase economic

growth and bode well for economic growth.

Asia follows close behind. They come in at 5.92%. Their population growth comes in lower than Africa,

and their standard of living is greater, but they also have a greater degree of economic efficiency.

Latin America follows at 5.32%, but would be much higher were it not for Hugo Chavez and his circle of

Social Autocrats in Venezuela, Ecuador, Bolivia and Argentina.

The Middle East came in a 5.04%. That number could either come in way below, or could surprise on

the upside, should the region’s recent turmoil blossom into good governance. But, the truth is no one

knows the outcome of Egypt and the rest of the Arab world.

Oceania follows mostly because growth in Indonesia is pulling the rest of the countries up and finishes at

4.18%. Europe’s expected growth is 3.12%, but it is a mishmash of the heavily indebted PIIGS which

lower growth and Eastern Europe which raise growth. North America’s expected growth comes in last

place at 2.67%. However, the region is the least diverse and consists only of the US and Canada. There

are no undeveloped countries, the population, while not as old as Europe’s, is not as young as Africa’s.

Regional Data

Africa average 6.32%

Rank Country 10 yr. growth

1 Rwanda 10.52%

2 Uganda 9.98%

3 Ghana 9.84%

4 Zambia 9.49%

5 Kenya 8.98%

7 Madagascar 8.38%




8 Ethiopia 8.33%

11 Malawi 8.13%

12 Mozambique 7.98%

13 Tanzania 7.81%

20 Burkina Faso 7.13%

23 Mali 6.92%33 Senegal 6.56%

38 Namibia 6.23%

39 Benin 6.11%

40 Nigeria 6.06%

44 South Africa 5.81%

47 Mauritius 5.48%

54 Côte d'Ivoire 4.97%

56 Lesotho 4.92%

57 Cameroon 4.86%

58 Botswana 4.84%74 Mauritania 3.97%

77 Burundi 3.86%

119 Chad 1.25%

120 Angola 1.22%

122 Zimbabwe 1.06%

Asia average 5.92%


6 Kyr.gyzstan 8.54%

14 India 7.77%

15 Vietnam 7.76%

16 Bangladesh 7.73%

17 Mongolia 7.63%

18 Philippines 7.44%

21 Thailand 7.11%

22 Pakistan 7.03%

30 China 6.66%

36 Sri Lanka 6.37%

43 Malaysia 5.86%

45 Nepal 5.77%

63 Kazakhstan 4.51%

91 South Korea 3.04%

103 Hong Kong 2.51%

105 Japan 2.47%




106 Taiwan 2.47%

Latin America average 5.16%


24 Nicaragua 6.91%

25 Peru 6.87%

27 Guatemala 6.78%

28 El Salvador 6.76%

31 Paraguay 6.65%

32 Honduras 6.57%

37 Chile 6.27%

41 Colombia 6.01%

46 Panama 5.55%49 Mexico 5.37%

50 Costa Rica 5.23%

53 Jamaica 5.04%

60 Brazil 4.70%

61 Bolivia 4.67%

68 Dominican Republic 4.27%

71 Uruguay 4.18%

73 Guyana 4.10%

86 Ecuador 3.36%

96 Argentina 2.80%

121 Venezuela 1.17%

Middle East average 5.04%


9 Jordan 8.23%

10 Georgia 8.14%

26 Morocco 6.79%

34 Egypt 6.55%35 Armenia 6.51%

42 Tunisia 5.86%

51 Turkey 5.21%

55 Oman 4.94%

62 Azerbaijan 4.63%

67 United Arab Emirates 4.32%




69 Syr.ia 4.22%

80 Israel 3.68%

84 Algeria 3.45%

99 Iran 2.75%

101 Kuwait 2.73%

102 Bahrain 2.55%

Oceania average 4.18%


19 Indonesia 7.31%

59 New Zealand 4.75%

89 Australia 3.09%

117 Singapore 1.57%

Europe average 3.12%


29 Moldova 6.66%

48 Albania 5.46%

52 Macedonia 5.19%

64 Romania 4.41%

65 Cyprus 4.39%

66 Lithuania 4.36%

70 Bosnia and Herzegovina 4.19%

72 Bulgaria 4.10%

75 Estonia 3.97%

76 Latvia 3.96%

78 Montenegro 3.81%

79 Serbia 3.77%

81 Slovakia 3.54%

82 Poland 3.48%

83 Hungary 3.47%85 Portugal 3.40%

87 Ukraine 3.21%

88 Ireland 3.10%

92 Croatia 3.01%

93 United Kingdom 2.97%

94 Denmark 2.88%




95 Czech Republic 2.82%

97 France 2.78%

98 Russia 2.75%

100 Finland 2.74%

104 Spain 2.49%

107 Slovenia 2.41%108 Germany 2.35%

109 Sweden 2.34%

110 Netherlands 2.29%

111 Switzerland 2.28%

113 Iceland 2.19%

114 Belgium 2.00%

115 Austria 1.83%

116 Italy 1.83%

118 Greece 1.53%

123 Norway 0.70%124 Luxembourg -0.07%

North America average 2.67%


90 Canada 3.07%

112 United States 2.27%

For media inquiries into the EconomyPolitics Index of Economic Efficiency, please contact

economipolitics [at] gmail [dot] com. Please feel free to use the full index, but must source back to

EconomyPolitics.

Documents

EconomyPolitics, 2010 Global 10 Yr Growth Rates