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Editor's Welcome
The highlight of the National Hunt season is imminent and we have angles and micro
systems that will hopefully turn a profit during the 2016 festival courtesy of the big race
expert Dr Nick Hardman.
This video teaches a bit about Nick's methods and offers an opportunity to get all his
bets - Click Here
But Cheltenham is not the only show in town and we have systems that will find
winners from the not so high profile trainers. Find those in the Acorn Principle column.
A few years ago now I first came into contact with a young Scotsman by the name of
Ben Aitken. Ben was particularly interesting because he had taken a very scientific
method of finding big race winners on the flat and applied it to National Hunt racing.
His results from this left field approach were very impressive.
Ben went on to set up a very successful tipping service based on his methods and this
month we have an interview with him.
Arbitrage is a skill that many are scared to try or don't think it is worthwhile using.
There are a couple of guys in my network of contacts who make huge profits from
arbing.
I was lucky enough to see the proof of this profit from one arber a few years ago and at
that time he was making a minimum of £1,000 per week.
I say minimum because that was his target, once he hit £1,000 he would take some time
off until the next week.
In this month’s mag we look at some of the pitfalls that can catch out newbie arbers.
Finally we have the usual product reviews and tipster table.
I hope your Cheltenham is a profitable one, personally I have a couple of speculative
small stakes yankees already that will pay high five figure returns if they come off and
I’ll be looking for some big priced winners during the festival.
Happy Punting
Darren Power
Which Way, Each Way?
Is it really that time of year again already? Where does the time go?
This year’s Cheltenham Festival is almost upon us and runs from Tuesday 15th to
Friday 18th March and with a total of 27 races on the card where do we start to find our
potential winners.
Every horse entered is there for their day of glory and last year we took a sires approach
to the races some of the selections were successful, others not so, but one or two sires
are certainly worth watching as their new progeny start coming to the track.
A Quick Recap
Shirocco and Gold Well’s progeny we feel are still of note when running at
Cheltenham. 2015 wasn’t their year admittedly, but they are relatively young stallions
and the signs are there for future successes, but we need to concentrate on the
handicappers.
Gold Well’s offspring have only started running in handicaps at Cheltenham since 2013
and 4 out of 6 of those have placed in their races with the most recent last year being
Grand Jesture who finished 2nd at a very healthy priced 25/1.
Previous winners were Holywell the 2013 Pertemps Hurdle winner and John’s Spirit, a
3 time winner at Cheltenham during 2013/2014, albeit not in a Festival race.
Backing those 6 runners each way over the past 3 years would have seen us bank a nice
profit of a shade over 46 points to Industry Starting Prices (ISP).
Entries so far for this year’s Festival from Gold Well are Holywell, General Principle
and Legacy Gold.
The other progeny to watch are those from Shirocco.
Although it is early days, signs are good so keep an eye on any runners coming from
Shirocco. Previous winners include Lac Fontana and Annie Power and it will be
interesting to see if others from the fold can run as well.
It is no surprise to see that Annie Power is an entry this year, together with Minella
Rocco and Red Sherlock.
We can’t hold last year’s fall against Annie Power with those form figures, she was
winning well last year when falling at the last so it will be interesting to see what price
she is offered at nearer the time.
Currently she is available Ante Post at 8/1 with BetFred.
But how are we going to approach things this year, do we look to find an alternative
angle?
How often have you been pipped at the post, robbed on the line, only to sit there
thinking, I knew I should have backed him each way!
During the Festival bookmakers can on occasion attempt a little generosity with some of
their “offers”.
Common offers include enhanced place terms, money back if your horse pulls up or
falls or if it just finishes outside of the places.
With this in mind what if we were only to concentrate on those runners which are
offering a double figure starting price?
What if we look not to necessarily find the winner, although of course that would be the
ultimate aim but if we could find a selection which we feel can give us the excitement
of a good run for the money AND hopefully at least land some healthy place spoils?
TRAINERS
The statistics quite clearly tell us that you are bound to find at least one winner if you
follow the Willie Mullins, Paul Nicholls or Nicky Henderson runners at Cheltenham for
in the past 10 years no other trainer has walked away the Cheltenham Festival Trainers
Title.
But with the number of runners these trainers enter at the meeting which ones do you
back, would you make a profit if everyone else is backing them as a dead cert for a win
too?
So, here’s another question, what happens if we ignore these three trainers completely,
in fact what if we look elsewhere to find our selections?
What if we look at those smaller trainers who send maybe just a handful or even just
one or two horses to the meeting? For sure you can guarantee that these horses will be
trying just as hard.
Below I have two trainer angles to add to the sires above and in the Gold edition we
have two more.
The Secret Irish Raider - Ms Margaret Mullins
There will always be the big contingency from over the water; after all it is their festival
isn’t it :) but watch out for Ms Margaret Mullins.
Training in Ireland at County Kilkenny her strike rates are worthy of note, but
interestingly in the last 5 seasons she has brought over from Ireland just 4 horses to run
on the GB National Hunt circuit.
And backing those 4 to win would have seen you with a level stakes profit of £37.00 to
the ISP.
Backing each way would have enhanced the profits slightly to £42.80.
Anonis was a winner in the November meeting at Cheltenham in 2012 in the Standard
Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed Race) and 2015 saw Martello Tower win the
Albert Bartlett Novice’s Hurdle a 3mile race which was run over soft going.
Martello Tower this year is currently entered in the World Hurdle on day 3 and is
available at 33/1 with Paddy Power.
He’s had a couple of runs over in Ireland in heavy going but his form figures look good
overall and he has to be worth an each way bet while backing if going off in double
figures.
Ms Mullins also has Ballychorus running at Cheltenham this year, but at the moment it
is unclear whether she’ll be over the hurdles or the large obstacles as she has early
entries in OLBG Mare’s Hurdle, National Hunt Chase and the RSA Chase.
Wins have come previously for Ballychorus over both hurdles and chase fences,
although the last two outings over fences have resulted in falls at the last when put
under pressure. Still a double figure price would still be of interest (and we’ll hope the
previous falls haven’t been off putting).
And one for Team GB - Rebecca Curtis
We have to throw someone in for Team GB and we are going to place our hard earned
on Rebecca Curtiss’s runners.
She has a few entered at Cheltenham this year and her profile over the past three years
has been on the up and up.
The thing is it feels as though everyone has jumped on the Rebecca Curtis band wagon
recently and so we need to find a different approach on how to use her runners to our
advantage.
If you had backed all of her runners in the past three years you wouldn’t have been
overly impressed with a level stakes loss of almost 90 points.
So what is all the interest about?
You have probably guessed that some of us here at On Course Profits are more
interested in trying to find a slightly different angle to most. We like to find a selection
which can give us a good run for our money but with that little edge of danger. It’s
boring backing favourites isn’t it even if they do win?
“Digging” a little deeper using the horseracebase Digger tool there must be something
in these figures and all of the hype that brings a profit.
A large part of those losses, in fact the majority, came from her hurdle and National
Hunt flat runners but taking a look at her Chasers starts to offer a glimmer of something
interesting. We are breaking into positive territory and we like the place strike rates
which are coming up on our investigations so far.
Given we are looking for each way selections we need to set that parameter of prices. If
we can find selections which are going to offer good value for an each way bet maybe
we can improve things, and this is what we find.
All of her runners going off at 22/1 or higher have finished unplaced so we are not
looking to land the 50/1 shot, although you never know…but those selections going of
between 13/2 and 20/1 certainly look to offer some each way value based on the
numbers of runners finishing placed which gives a slightly higher than 30% place strike
rate.
And backing each way would have improved the profit figures slightly but not
significantly.
Personally we are not too keen on backing each way on odds out of the double figures
arena, though place prices on Betfair may often offer some value, depending on the
makeup of the race, i.e. where there is a short priced favourite.
The above each way bets would have given us a return on investment of 29% which is
very healthy, but by simply keeping our each way selections in the double figure prices
up to and including 20/1 would have given us a much better ROI but cutting out a large
number of qualifiers without significantly affecting the strike rate.
At the end of the day it is all about making your money work the best it can for you for
as little effort as possible.
On that basis a price criteria of 10/1 – 20/1 would have produced slightly less SP Points
profit but reduced the number of qualifiers by almost half.
Our ROI would now have been just over 42%.
So what about Cheltenham we here you ask.
Rebecca Curtis currently has a number of early entries for Cheltenham and all but one
are currently being offered Ante Post in double figures.
Her chase entries are Potters Cross, Imagine The Chat, Racing Pulse, Wild Rover,
Vintage Vinnie, How About It, Beast Of Burden, At Fishers Cross, O’Faolains Boy
and Irish Cavalier.
You can easily keep an eye on the runners on the day by checking the Entries tab for
each trainer on the Racing Post. Horseracebase will also allow you to set up an alert for
any runners on the day from the trainers mentioned above.
In summary
1. SIRES
Back all GOLDWELL and SHIROCCO progeny if running at Cheltenham. Runners
priced 4/1 or less back to WIN ONLY, all other selections back EACH WAY.
2. TRAINERS
Back ALL MARGARET MULLINS runners EACH WAY
Back REBECCA CURTIS CHASE runners EACH WAY
Good luck and we’ll report back on our successes for you next month :)
N.B: Don't forget to refer back to Nick Hardman's article of last month for the
forthcoming Flat Turf season!
© 2016 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd
A Q & A with Ben Aitken of Narrowing
The Field
1. Would you tell us a little about your background, what attracted you to the
horse racing industry?
It all began for me when my grandad took me into a bookies as a young lad (on a ‘pit
stop’ on the way to getting my haircut!). I don’t know what it was about the smoke-
filled, blacked out windows and ranks of TV’s that fascinated me but it certainly left a
curious impact on me and the seed had been planted.
Soon after that the Grand National was the main pulling point for me and the yearly
pull-outs in the newspapers on National weekend had me absorbed for hours on end.
From a very young age the race used to fascinate me and as I got older I expanded into
other races until I was consumed by the sport.
When I left home after school for further study I was already roughly compiling my
own (very rough) notes on certain horses and it was at that point I decided to step my
involvement up to a more serious level. It’s safe to say my studying time involved about
90% form studying and 10% of Graphic Design studying (what I was studying)!
Once I finished my studying I decided to step up my betting/racing again and that’s
when I started developing my own analysis methods. From there I discovered an
American technique that was untapped in this country (the Dosage Method) and after
incorporating it into my own methods I decided to write a book on the subject. From
there I set up a blog to support the book, which then turned into a web-site
(www.narrowing-the-field.co.uk) and an analysis service, concentrating on the major
races throughout the racing year.
2. Is there any one thing you enjoy most about the sport of kings?
The puzzle.
I love the challenge of trying to figure out who is going to win any given race and why.
In the same vain I also love the challenge of figuring out the preferred/best conditions
for any given horse, a kind of mini puzzle that interlinks with the main puzzle of who
wins the race and why.
3. When did you set up Narrowing The Field and what made you look at the
dosage angles rather than traditional forms of racing study. Would you explain
what dosage is for the readers?
Narrowing The Field was set up in the 2009/10 season. I came across the Dosage
Method whilst reading some older text on racing methods. It was a very short paragraph
in the book but I was intrigued and wanted to find out more about the method and I also
wanted to see if it would work for National Hunt racing in the UK (which is the area of
racing I study the most). I was already looking at traditional forms of racing study but I
wanted to incorporate alternative angles to look at races in a different manner to the
mainstream to gain an ‘edge’. Dosage was something that was simply being ignored
over here and I knew if it could successfully be applied to National Hunt racing (which
it can and has been by myself for a number of years) I would have an edge and an
alternative approach that others simply were not looking at.
Dosage isn’t always the easiest angle to describe and the best (and simplest description)
I can give comes from my own Dosage book…
“In basic terms Dosage ratings are numerical figures which indicate the probable
speed or stamina capabilities of a horse based on the appearance of influential sires in
its bloodline. An influential sire has been determined not by its own achievements on the
race track but the proven, consistent ability and success of its offspring. This is based
on the theory that certain stallions can have a sustained significant influence on
thoroughbred racehorses for a number of generations. Essentially, Dosage ratings are
a horse’s genetic make-up expressed in figures.”
4. Describe your typical working day for the readers? What is your starting point
for your research and how do you build in the statistics to narrow your selections?
The work would generally start the evening before racing. I have a large selection of
angles and systems loaded onto my Proform database that I check through for pointers
and positives/negatives. I would also check through all the horses I have notes for to see
if any meet the conditions I have outlined for them. Those two methods in themselves
help build workable shortlists that I can then delve further into. Obviously if any horses
have ideal conditions (based on my own notes) I can take advantage of the early prices
there and then.
On a statistical angle if there are any big races for the next day (mostly at weekends) I
will then run the entries through my own thoroughly researched race trends (sourced for
each individual race) to see which runners are a best fit on the criteria. That again builds
a shortlist that I can delve further into using my own notes and other statistics/angles.
On the morning of racing it’s just a case of going over everything to make sure I’ve not
missed anything glaringly obvious and of course seeing if ground conditions have
changed or remained the same (I always check weather forecasts the evening before so
that I’m ready for any potential changes).
When the racing starts I’m then looking to take notes for future, building up my files on
certain horses and looking for reasons why they ran well or indeed ran poorly.
5. How do you suggest that readers use NTF? Can you recommend any useful sites
or publications which may be a good introduction to Dosage?
NTF can be used in many ways. The most in depth way is to join the full service as you
then receive all major race analysis guides (over 140 of the top races analysed using
Dosage Trends and Race Trends) as well as members Trend Horses and in-depth
Weekend Notes with individual horse notes. You can also join the free service where
you can pick up a multitude of free guides and read my ‘what we learned from the
weekend’ weekly blog post, providing trends, stats and future pointers from the
weekends racing.
On the Dosage front the best website I can point you towards is Chef-de-race.com.
I also offer an ‘Intro to Dosage’ guide on my free service.
6. How does dosage apply across the different codes of racing? Can dosage be
easily applied equally over all codes?
I’m personally of the opinion that it can be applied across both National Hunt and Flat
racing although I wouldn’t be all that confident about it working on the all-weather.
Dosage is best used in the higher grades of racing and I would consider other factors to
be more important and useful at the lower levels.
7. Is there anything you would like to see changed in the sport of horse racing?
Why?
The declaration of breathing operations.
They can clearly have a significant benefit to a horse (and can lead to major
improvement in horses) and more often than not we don’t find out until after the race
that the horse was having its first run after a breathing op. If punters were made aware
of this information the data could be plugged into a database and punters would be able
to ascertain which trainer’s horses benefit from the operations and also which sires
offspring benefit as well.
8. Do you think gambling / betting has a place in modern society and if so what
style of betting do you think appeals to the modern day gambler? What are they
looking for? What style of approach do you take to your betting on a personal
level?
I think betting always has a place in society, especially modern society.
The growth of the internet and online/mobile betting definitely appeals most to modern
punters as you can bet on the move and you don’t have to take a detour into a dingy old
bookies to get your money down (not that bookies are like that anymore!). Online
betting also offers numerous incentives that generally are not available in the shops and
this can only be a good thing. If you take your time to shop around you can easily get
your pick of the best prices (whether that be standard bookies or indeed the exchanges)
and you can often get enhanced place terms on the big handicaps, something that also
isn’t generally available in the shops.
My own personal approach is a mix of the exchanges and online bookies. Swaying
marginally in favour of the exchanges.
9. What would you consider to be a highlight of your racing experiences to date?
My own highlight would be a very recent one.
I own a share in a horse trained by Jeremy Gask called Trending, I’ve been part of the
syndicate since the beginning. He spent the first five years of his career sprinting (5f &
6f) at a low level but as a seven-year-old the decision was made to try him over trips of
1m+. His last three races have seen him finish 2nd (1m), 1st (1m2f) & 1st (1m5f!), the
first time in his career he has won back to back races! It’s almost like we have a new
horse!
He’s still unexposed over these mid-range-staying trips so who knows where the ceiling
to his new abilities will be!
10. Are there any tracks, meetings or race types you particularly enjoy?
I particularly enjoy handicap chases over 2m4f and further. They would form the largest
percentage of races that I bet on and would also form the largest percentage of horses in
my personal notes. I also enjoy non-handicap/non-novice chases over the same
distances.
Outside of the obvious (Cheltenham Festival) I would have Ayr’s Scottish National
meeting, Perth’s three day April meeting and the Cheltenham Paddy Power Gold Cup
meeting as meetings that I particularly enjoy.
Favourite tracks would be Cheltenham, Perth, Kempton and Aintree’s National course.
11. Do you have one horse which you feel is currently a stand out and one to watch
for the future? Any particular horse we should be backing at Cheltenham this
year?
The Gary Moore trained AR MAD has been extremely impressive on the figures this
season and he looks a serious player in the 2 mile division in coming years. There is the
obvious concern about him going left-handed but even if that proves to be accurate there
are still plenty of Grade 1 races for him going right-handed and he could easy step into
Sire de Grugy’s shoes and become the next stable star at the Moore yard.
At Cheltenham this term I’m very keen on DON POLI’s chances in the Gold Cup. He’s
been called a few names in some parts because he doesn’t win or look impressive in
victory but that’s just his way and I expect him to be bang there at the finish of the Gold
Cup, doing just enough to get himself home in front.
12. Are there any plans to develop NTF further in the future?
I’m always looking to develop NTF and bring in new aspects to the service and I do
have plans to develop the horse notes section of the service in the very near future. This
has been a new addition in the last couple of seasons and members have been using it
successfully in its current format but I would like to develop and grow that part of the
service even further.
13. What do you do to relax and unwind? What interests have you outside the
world of sports?
We have three retired/rescue greyhounds and they go a long way to helping me unwind
and relax, before, in-between and after racing.
They also demand I walk them twice a day so they also keep my fitness levels up!
Before we moved to Yorkshire we helped out at our local rescue centre
(greyhoundrescuefife.com) and we are still in regular contact with them and make sure
we visit when we are back home.
Away from the racing and the dogs (pets!) I enjoy playing squash, online poker and
helping my wife with her (many!) upcycling projects (I’m the muscles, she’s the
brains!).
© 2016 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd
Arbitrage Pitfalls
In a previous issue we touched on the differing rules for tennis and football and how
important it is that you are aware of these when placing your bets / arbs. There is always
a need to ensure that you don’t find yourself being caught out and consequently
suffering a potentially hefty loss.
The concern over “rules” applies in other sports too, and so we felt that it would be
prudent to make you aware of these differing rules in a couple of other sports popular
within arbitrage markets, and in particular those traps which some newcomers to
arbitrage may find themselves falling in to.
Don’t feel that this is an all negative situation though; if you are aware of the dangers
then you will be in a much better position to ensure that your arbs result in positive
outcomes. Remember forewarned is forearmed.
First up Baseball
It isn’t just the rules difference you need to worry about here. It is important to note that
on occasions, and quite strangely, the teams involved can play twice in the same day!
Make sure that you are backing your team when they are playing in the match you are
interested in. It is so easy when pushed for time to catch the odds and misread them
finding yourself backing the wrong match.
Don’t panic though as there is a way in which we can differentiate our matches, and the
solution is relatively easy.
When looking at the matches you need to check that the “pitchers” listed for the match
are the same with each side of the arb.
The “pitcher” is a very important member of the team. Often the team may change their
pitcher and as a consequence the odds can change significantly, so ALWAYS check that
you are comparing like with like when checking your odds.
In the event of a change of “pitcher” some bookmakers MAY maintain your bet and pay
out regardless but this is very rare and really isn’t worth the risk particularly if you are
new to arbing and are still learning how best to use the bookmakers. Most bookies will
undoubtedly void or cancel your bet leaving you exposed on the other side of your arb.
Complicating things further, some bookmakers allow you to check or tick boxes for
“action”, and this means that they will maintain the bet regardless of any changes to
team members etc.
Ok, so what is the problem?
Read the rules!
If there is a pitcher change then they will apply revised betting odds accordingly.
Most of these baseball matches start in the middle of the night if you are working on
UK time and there is likely to be very little if anything you can do about the changes
unless you are a true night owl.
On the positive side if you spot a “pitcher” change and you are quick enough you may
well be able to take advantage by placing a bet with those bookmakers mentioned above
which will maintain the bet regardless, and then betting on the team NOT changing their
pitcher.
A sharp mind and swift hands will be needed for this but it is possible and of course can
be highly lucrative.
Another sport to approach carefully is Ice Hockey (NHL).
If a match is tied at the end of full time the teams go on to play for a period of
“overtime”.
Some bookmakers will include the overtime play and others will not.
If we imagine we are trading on the number of goals or overs and unders you can see
that there is a potential to come a little unstuck if we are not careful.
For example, the score line is 2-2 and you have bet under 4.5 goals on one side and your
trade on this side includes over time (so this bet loses).
On the other side you have bet over 4.5 goals but the bet excludes overtime. Play goes
in to overtime and a goal is scored (this side of the bet loses also).
Result – An expensive day at the office as both sides of the arb have lost.
It is sensible to leave these types of overs / unders ice hockey arbs alone until you have
gained a good knowledge of all of the rules and which bookmakers apply which type of
rule.
Similar situations can arise in a simple football match and a player to score or not to
score.
Some bookmakers state that a player must play from kick off for a bet to stand while
others maintain that the bet stands as long as the player takes part in the match at any
time, even as a late sub in the dying 5 mins of the game.
If you are unfortunate and do find yourself in one of these situations going against you
then remember arbitrage trading is about making a profit regardless how small, but also
about minimising the losses if you find yourself caught out.
There will be times where you will need to “bail out” and take that loss on the chin.
We may be trying to ensure we always make a profit but that isn’t always possible so
accept a small loss, move on, and learn from the experience and look to make back that
loss and a little more besides on the next trade.
Most of the commercially available software we touched on last month allows you to
filter out, or only show those opportunities with similar rules, so they can be a good
investment long term as you master your talent and gain your proficiency badge.
Remember the Golden Rule:
IF YOU ARE UNSURE OF THE DIFFERING RULES AND THEIR
IMPLICATIONS THEN LEAVE WELL ALONE.
Moving Monies
A few additional notes to end on this month with regard to moving your money between
your bookmaker accounts and bank accounts.
The preferred method for many arbitrageurs is Skrill (formerly Moneybookers).
There are other online “wallets” but generally speaking Skrill are both the cheapest and
the most secure.
The processes of depositing and withdrawal are relatively simple and withdrawals from
bookmaker accounts to Skrill tend to be much faster than withdrawing back to your
bank card or credit card. This is imperative for arbing when you have large amounts tied
up in one bookmaker which need to be made available for the next arb elsewhere.
Arbing works on being able to turn over your funds with efficiency.
You will remember that we have touched on in the past the possible pitfalls of
withdrawing funds from bookmakers as this can highlight your arbing career and lead to
the bookmaker possibly looking to restrict your account.
There is a way around this, with a 100% arb. This is where we place bets which mean
that the net result of our trade results in neither a profit nor a loss, we make nothing,
zilch, nada, but we lose nothing neither.
What’s the point of that? It is best explained in an example.
If we take a two way bet, i.e. an event where there are only two possible outcomes such
as a tennis match.
Player A is available to back at 1.20 (1/5 fractional odds) with a betting exchange.
Player B is available to back at 6.00 (5/1 fractional odds) with the bookmaker (where
our money is that we want to move).
We place a bet of £500.00 on Player A at 1.20
We place a bet of £100.00 on Player B at 6.00
We are not going to make any money on this, either way we win £600.00 regardless of
the outcome, but if the favourite wins, which we assume is most likely then we will
have moved £100.00 from the bookmaker where we didn’t want the money to be held
any longer and we have effectively avoided a withdrawal.
If we find ourselves in the unlucky position where Player B wins the match then we
have still not made any money and so are no worse off except that we will be forced to
make a withdrawal if we want to use these funds elsewhere.
© 2016 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd
Seabiscuit
You do know the story of Seabiscuit don’t you? No, then let us begin…
The story is one of legends and rags to riches. Seabiscuit’s family line went back to
none other than the great Man O’ War, a horse which according to his trainer and
jockey was full of fire. A difficult horse to break, and one who had thrown his rider
when first being mounted some forty feet! He had attitude shall we say.
Samuel D Riddle the cousin of Man O’ War’s owner, Mrs. Walter M. Jeffords, is
quoted to have said on the breaking in of Man O War:
"He fought like a tiger. He screamed with rage, and fought us so hard that it took several
days before he could be handled with safety."
Born May 23 1934 from Hard Tack, Seabiscuit on the other hand, well he just didn’t
appear to have inherited any of the fire of his grandsire. His racing career started as a
slow burn, running his first 17 races mostly from the back of the field. He wasn’t
considered the best prospect in terms of being a winner of races, he had stumpy legs
which wouldn’t straighten and some referred to him as not worth “the hay in a first class
barn”.
He was considered a lazy horse but with hindsight it seems that this may well have had
more to do with the way he was treated rather than his abilities. He was a horse which
had been whipped freely by his jockeys to get him up to the speed he was believed to be
capable of, and as a three year old he had already run more races than most
thoroughbred horses would have run in their entire career.
He had won nine races before he was sold on and bought by Charles Howard, a bicycle
repair man turned car dealer who paid US$8000 for Seabiscuit at auction. The horse
was weighing considerably less than he should have been by the time he got to Howard
and his new trainer Tom Smith, he was a nervous horse, forever pacing in his stall and
lunging at anyone who came near him.
For all of his apparent “faults” the horse did have someone who fought in his corner and
that was Smith, a trainer also referred to as “Silent Tom” as due to his reluctance to talk
many believed he didn’t have a tongue. Smith recognized Seabiscuit’s potential and had
some innovative training techniques to help turn this reluctant racehorse in to one of the
best handicap horses in the USA. Smith was a western cowboy who truly knew how to
communicate with the horse. From 1936-1940 Americans would flock to the racetracks
to watch this small, wonky horse turn in to a magnificent champion.
Smith started by feeding the horse a high quality hay and letting the horse sleep as late
as he wanted to, he also knew that horses needed company and weren’t solitary animals
so he created a large stall where he introduced Seabiscuit to Pumpkin, a sedate old horse
which became the racehorse's lifelong companion. Then there was the stray dog,
Pocatell, oh and not forgetting a spider monkey called Jo-Jo! Slowly the horse started to
relax and Smith started training Seabiscuit to be the horse he knew he could be.
His ungainly stubby legs, thick body and stunted tail didn’t stop him from running at an
exceptional speed, even if his left foreleg stuck out when he ran, and although not as
fiery as his grandsire he was a competitive horse and could on occasions be stubborn as
stubborn as a mule.
Smith found a suitable jockey for Seabiscuit in Johnny “Red” Pollard. A lowly man
who was born as one of seven sons of a brick manufacturer who went bankrupt. He had
been riding at the lowest tracks in the country but was determined to ride as many
horses as he could.
Realistically at 5'7", he was too tall to be a jockey, and he was also blind in one eye,
something he tried to keep a secret. His lack of bifocal vision meant that as a jockey he
lacked a depth perception which would allow him to judge how far ahead of him other
horses in the race were. Seabiscuit and Pollard made a strange team.
Eventually Smith and Pollard took Seabiscuit to the racecourse where he shocked
everyone.
This non plus horse was winning races, at different tracks and over different distances it
didn’t seem to matter what was thrown at him, he wanted to run and soon those in the
know in the racing industry were tipping him for the Santa Anita Handicap and its
winner takes all prize of $100,000.
Seabiscuit was entered and ran but lost the race though not without putting in a stellar
performance which saw him beaten for first place by a nose. Losing the race wasn’t
Seasbicuits fault, Pollard had eased down in the final stretch, but it was clear that the
horse had arrived on the racing scene and was going to be a real contender. Horses fell
in his wake until the point was reached where there was just one horse that Seabiscuit
needed to take on War Admiral.
War Admiral was the son of Man O’War and many considered him to be the sole heir to
his sire’s break neck speed.
But trouble lurked around the corner.
While riding another horse, Pollard fell and shattered his collarbone, broke his shoulder,
fractured his ribs, it was a fall which resulted in the doctors telling him he wouldn't ride
again for at least a year and possibly never.
So Seabiscuit’s defining moment came, but without Pollard on board, when he ran
against the 1937 Triple Crown winner, War Admiral, a new jockey took the reins in
George Woolf.
The two horses finally met one on one in November 1938 at Maryland’s Pimlico
Racecourse.
One in every three Americans reportedly tuned in their radios, everyone willing the
underdog to win, though most had probably placed their hard earned cash on War
Admiral.
It was a contest of the haves and have nots as the East Coast bankers and their
stunningly turned out horses battled against the battered and the bruised.
The race was on.
Most were already of the opinion that War Admiral would leave Seabiscuit eating dirt,
and War Admiral went off as the 1 / 4 favourite, but Seabiscuit didn’t know that.
Seabiscuit shot to the front and stayed there for most of his race, but on the back stretch
before the final turn Woolf slowed him down. Pollard had told him “Once a horse gives
Seabiscuit the old look-in-the-eye, he begins to run to parts unknown.”
They let War Admiral draw up alongside and then that was it Seabiscuit did exactly
what Pollard had said he would, he pulled away from War Admiral and beat him a
handsome four lengths. The battered and bruised had won. Pollard who was recovering
in his hospital bed was quoted as saying, "He did just what I thought he'd do. He made a
rear admiral out of War Admiral."
The race was watched by some 40,000 spectators many of whom were looking for
inspiration and a second chance just as Seabiscuit had, had. It was the time of the Great
Depression and to see the under horse beat the rich brought a smile to many of the faces
in the crowd. Sports writers went wild calling the race the greatest that had ever been
and Seabiscuit was awarded the US Horse of the Year Award for his heroism in the
race.
The expectation of the racing fraternity was that this race was to be Seabiscuit’s
crowning glory when, some six weeks later, the horse stumbled and ruptured a
ligament. He was never expected to race again, but Howard wouldn’t hear the word
retirement.
His owner took Seabiscuit back to California for a well-earned rest and while there
Pollard recovered alongside him. “Seabiscuit and I were a couple of old cripples
together,” Pollard said later, “all washed up. But out there among the hooting owls, we
both got sound again.”
Late autumn of 1939 the announcement was made; Seabiscuit would run again, this
time in the Santa Anita Handicap which was scheduled for March 1940. He had run in
the race on two previous occasions but now as a 7 year old he would run in the race
again, this time with Pollard as his jockey. Seventy-five thousand people, the largest
crowd ever to attend an American horse race, watched and held their breath.
The pair rounded the final turn and Seabiscuit had nowhere to go, he was boxed in, he
was pulling hard at Pollard.
Pollard prayed aloud that a gap would come for them and his prayer was heard not by
anyone or anything from above but by a fellow jockey.
There came a gap and this was their chance “Now, Pop” shouted Pollard and Seabiscuit
hit top speed and took the lead. The homestretch came and then Seabiscuit, for the final
time in his racing career went eyeball to eyeball with Kayak, a horse who had been
closing in. Seabiscuit wasn’t going to lose this time; he found another gear and left the
competition standing. It was the second-fastest time ever run on an American track for
that distance. “Don’t think,” said Pollard afterward, “he didn’t know he was the hero.”
Soon after, Seabiscuit retired.
In his six years of racing he competed 89 times and won 33 of those races, finishing
placed 61 times, and set 16 track records.
On the 17th May 1947 Seabiscuit suffered a heart attack and died. He was just 14 years
old. He was buried at a secret site on the Ridgewood Ranch marked simply with an oak
sapling.
The horse went from ungainly scrapper to one of the most remarkable thoroughbred
horses in history. Seasbiscuit's success was instant, when he started winning he didn’t
stop. His owner entered this “underdog” as a challenger to the racing establishment, and
Seabiscuit became the most popular horse in America during the Great Depression era.
At the peak of his racing career Seabiscuit took the most columns in all of the
newspapers in the US than anyone else with President Roosevelt ranking second and
Adolf Hitler only third in terms of column inches.
Header image - By Seabiscuit Heritage Foundation - Seabiscuit Heritage Foundation, Public Domain,
https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=4917564
© 2016 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd
The Acorn Principle
If you have been following the Acorn Principle “Here Come The Girls” from last
month’s issue you will already have had your first winner but a little more about that
later.
Much of the talk will be about Cheltenham but it is worth bearing in mind that Spring
will be with us and quick on the heels will be the Turf Flat season.
Undoubtedly the Turf Flat is dominated by the big stables with their big owners but
following on from our Here Come The Girls we decided to see if we could search out a
couple of lesser known flat female trainers who are worthy of taking note of.
We can’t mention often enough how useful www.horseracebase.com is, with its mine of
detailed information, as a starting point for your investigations in to new ideas, and so it
is here we head to in search of a rare gem or two.
Julie Camacho who operates up in the north of England in North Yorkshire. Julie took
over her father’s racing licence back in 1998 at the age of 31.
At first glance her runner’s statistics since 2011 to date don’t really shout out anything
for major consideration.
A pretty good strike place strike always interests us here and the level stakes loss over
the period under review isn’t anything in our book we should be too concerned about.
Losing just over 23 points in 5 years and we think most of us would be happy if we only
managed to lose that! In fact more recently she has been pretty successful with the last 3
years runners producing a level stakes profit of 31 points and the strike rates are slightly
improved too.
It is also clear that it is her handicap runners which she concentrates the most on.
Backing all of her handicap runners would have produced a level stakes profit of 50.00
points and this could be increased further by having backed the selections each way.
A quick flip over to the Racing Post website and we see something which highlights a
possible successful avenue to investigate further. That is the success of her 3 year old
runners.
Racing Post tells us that this is definitely worth looking at as the results of her 3year old
runners over the past three years speak for themselves.
Each WAY return on investment = (80.50/42) = 191%
2014 saw a small loss of 7.75 points but good returns from the number of runners were
available in 2013 and 2015.
Winners were priced anywhere between 9/4 and 40/1 (2013) and on that basis it seems
sensible to back selections one of two ways, backing EACH WAY or taking advantage
of the betting exchanges, and our preferred method and backing to PLACE ONLY.
Backing each way may on first view seem more sensible but always remember that
backing each way means that you will be doubling your stakes, and backing each way
would have produced a higher points profits but would have reduced the overall return
on investment.
Each WAY return on investment = (107.69/84) = 128%
We will record the results on both bases using the Betfair available Win and Place
starting prices and will report back as and when runners come up.
Back Julie Camacho 3 year old Handicap Flat Turf runners – preferred place only,
or each way if this is your preference.
Another female trainer we are going to look at in this article is Deborah Sanderson.
Her initial figures since 2011 show fairly similar strike rates to those of Julie Camacho.
But these figures demonstrate how easily we can be misled by initial figures.
As always we are more interested in recent performances and looking at the returns for
2013 to date we see a doubling of the level stakes profit for almost half the number of
selections.
The fact is looking over the past 5 years ALL of the profits came in 2015.
In fact 2015 saw winners with Prigsnov Dancer which ran three times but amazingly
each time going off at prices of 25/1, 20/1 and 20/1 respectively in Class 5 and Class 6
Handicap races. Diamond Runner won at 9/1 and Munaawib at 16/1 also won in
Handicap races.
In fact profits it is clear that it is the handicappers we need to look at:
Backing her handicap runners each way over the past three years would have resulted in
profits of 86 points to level stakes.
Now again, the number of horses in her stable you can count on one hand, but it
certainly seems that she knows when to drop them in a race with their best chance of
winning.
In fact 14 out of the 16 horses which finished placed (including 5 of the 6 winners)
came in Class 6 races.
A class of race we have probably all been guilty of snubbing!
The thing is we are looking to make a return on our stakes and on that basis on the
surface it seems foolish not to take note of Deborah Sanderson’s Class 6 Handicap
runners when they do pop up.
Back all Deborah Sanderson Class 6 Handicap runners each way.
Last months “Acorn” of Tracey Collins runners got us thinking as to whether there were
any other hidden gems to be found in Ireland, other than the big chasing stables.
Very little attention appears to be paid to the Irish All Weather racing so we thought
we’d take a look and see if we could uncover any useful snippets to add to our basket of
acorns.
Matthew J Smith operates out of County Meath and a first glimpse at his last 5 years
statistics looks interesting.
What stands out is he is an All Weather specialist with the older horses.
So as always we head over to Horseracesbase.com and see what the stats can uncover
for us.
The past three years on the All Weather have all been profitable for Smith.
It appears that he looks to specialise with the middle distance runners’ 1m 2f-1m4f and
this could sit well with our other contingent on the Irish All Weather, Tracey Collins, as
we will not be backing multiple runners in the same races.
You will remember that with Collins we are concentrating on her runners over 8f or
less.
This has legs.
As is often the case those runners going off at larger than 20/1 have been losers but
generally his runners offer a spread of prices.
What to glean from this we are not sure but our gut instinct says that this again merits
an each way backing approach in the main with the bulk of selections going off at 9/2 or
larger.
A common sense approach on any particularly short priced runners would suggest that
we back these to Win Only unless you can achieve close to evens or better in the place
market on Betfair.
Back ALL M J Smith runners at Dundalk running over 1m2f-1m4f based on the
above price criteria.
Acorn Updates
Next Day Runners – Remember that the Next Day Runners kicks off again from the
start of April and runs through to the end of September.
We managed a small profit last year so we are hopefully that this year will add to the
figures.
We’ll give you a reminder of the criteria next month.
Small Field Angle – Nothing new to report at this time.
Creatures of Habit – Parked until October.
The Three Amigos – This method is still showing a positive of +6.80 points to Betfair
Starting Prices.
Remember that this one will come to an end at the end of April.
Midnight Legend – Nothing new to report this month. Remember this only runs
November to February each year. We feel that this needs further investigation for this
coming winter.
Trainer Trends – Mullins and O’Neill – Not performing as well as we had hoped but
we will continue to monitor.
Here Come The Girls
Just two selections as at the time of writing, both of which came from the Tracey
Collins runners.
One winner in Captain Joy on 12th February with a Betfair SP of 1.82, so a very small
loss to date.
© 2016 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd
Product Reviews
We have several new services under the microscope this month but first a quick update
on Prestige Punter.
Cost: £38.00 every 28 days or £76.00 every 90 days.
The Trial - Since last month we have had a further 57 races where the Betfair favourite
was to be backed where as long as the six selected criteria were satisfied.
After allowing for these filters and those meetings which ended up abandoned we
finally found ourselves with 28 selections and of these 14 won, so a good strike rate.
The winners were priced between 1.58 and 3.55 and had an average price of 2.15 so in
the month overall we finished up 2.82 points in profit after 5% Betfair commission.
Although we can’t fault the service as it is delivering on its promise in terms of the 50%
strike rate sadly the profits are ultimately not a great deal to write home about.
Conclusion: We will keep the faith in the hope that next month the returns for our
efforts are improved. You can find out more about the service here
Irish Racing Correspondent from The Timemaster
Cost - To be confirmed.
The Trial - As the name suggests, this service only deals with Irish racing and we have
been following their selections for 2 months now.
To date there have been 86 selections of which 32 were winners and a further 18
selections were placed when advised each way.
The selections have been both consistent and conservative with 13/2 being the largest
priced advice and those selections priced 5/2 or larger being advised each way.
All bets are 1 point win or 1 point each way.
Profits to date amount to just over 16.50 points.
Conclusion – A promising start. Click here to find out more
Lay Bet Profits
Cost - Initially £7.00 for 7 days. After initial trial £90.00 every 90 days.
The Trial - Since early December there have been 46 lays advised 7 of which were no
bets due to price limits of 8.00.
Of the remaining selections 33 were successful lay bets and advised stakes were 2 or 3
points.
Overall we saw ourselves with a small profit of 6.03 points after Betfair commissions
but the average lay prices of between 5.00 and 6.00 leave us a little nervous as the
current profit is in the region of just one losing bet so a wipe out is possible.
Conclusion – We will continue to monitor but in the meantime if you would like to find
out more click here
Maximum Racing Profits
Cost - £37.00 every 28 days or £74.00 every 90 days + VAT
The Trial - An information based service Maximum Racing Profits has provided 52
selections since the middle of December and of those we have had 13 winners and are
showing a small profit of 1.20 points.
The bet stakes are between 2 and 5 points and so far we have staked a total of 186
points.
Conclusion – Things will need to improve considerably based on the level of stakes for
this service to be recommended.
Statpicks
Cost - £7.00 for the 1st month then £27.00 per month / £57.00 per quarter.
The Trial - If you are familiar with geegeez.com you will probably have heard of the
One A Day Statpick which based on past results has been very profitable.
The service originates from this one a day selection and is run by the same person, but
in addition he gives further bets highlighted by his research. It has been profitable in the
past and we started our own review on the 1st January.
In truth it has been a topsy turvy month resulting in 10 winners from 42 selections and a
profit to advised prices of 7.70pts. All bets are either ½ a point each way or 1point win
and the ROI is a respectable 18.33%.
Bets are usually online by 9am. Having followed these ourselves we have not always
been able to obtain the advised prices and our profit therefore was a more modest
+3.25pts.
Conclusion – We will keep an eye and report back when we have further results under
our belt. In the meantime you can find out more here
Nap Investor
Cost - £57.00 per month or £99.00 per quarter plus VAT.
The Trial -We have been following this service since the middle of December and to
date it has been particularly disappointing.
Ninety six selections have resulted in 13 winners. 13 winners from 96 selections is less
than a 15% strike rate and to the advised stakes resulted in a loss of 93.50pts.
The staking which we are not big fans of is 5pts every bet which is clearly designed to
capitalise when landing a larger priced selection, which does happen, but also means
that headlines of “over 200pts profit” in a good month can be readily claimed.
They have had winners at 16/1 and 14/1and without these the figures would look very
different.
Conclusion - Clearly improvement is needed to be of any real interest. you can find out
more here
Dexter’s Doubles
Cost - £49.00 per month or £99.00 every 3 months or an annual price of £279.00.
The Trial - We have been following the Stark Investor’s football tipping service since
the early January and its morning email advises pairs of UK & European matches to be
backed singly 2 points to win coupled with a 1 point win double.
On occasions the advice is to put the full 5 points on to a straight win double. The
website results show that this service started last October and gave a stellar performance
for the rest of the year.
Until the end of the month there were tips for 78 teams, 74 to be backed singly and as
37 doubles whilst the other 4 were to be just to be 2 doubles.
The two straight doubles won making profits of 4.42 & 3.2 points for the 5 points
staked but out of the other 74 teams only 35 won their matches at odds between 1/9 and
13/8 giving 9 winning doubles which, at advised odds, was not enough to prevent this
service making an overall loss on the month of 49.39 points.
Conclusion - We will see if it can be on a retrieval course next time. Find out more here
Bulldog Punter Pay4Profit
Cost – Visit website for pack options.
The Trial – This Bet Kudos horse race tipping service may appeal to those who no
longer have any bookmaker accounts.
You purchase a future profit of 25, 50 or 100 points to be delivered by backing at
Betfair SP with stakes from 1 to 3 points and the daily morning email ceases once the
target profit has been achieved.
We started on the 6th January aiming to make 50 points and by the end of the month we
had been advised to back a total of 41 runners with stakes totalling 89 points which
resulted in 11 winners, a strike rate of 26.8%. This, plus several additional each-way bet
places, made a profit of 12.96 points after deducting 5% commission giving a ROI of
14.56%.
Conclusion - At this rate the remaining 37 points should be in the bag by the end of
April. You can track how it’s doing on the vendor’s site.
© 2016 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd
Tipster Top Ten
Looking at the last 90 days results clearly demonstrates to us the changing fortunes of
many of the tipping services on the market. So, have any managed to hit the bullseye
recently?
The ROI below is shown based on Best Odds Guaranteed and the services Advised
Stakes.
1. Bookies Enemy No 1 - Strike Rate 18% ROI 42% - December was an excellent
month for Bookies Enemy with 67 points being added in to the point as a result of big
priced winners such as Don't Be 20/1. 2016 had a sticky start but the first couple of
weeks of February have brought in plenty of winners and landed a Trixie bet to bring
home a further 73 points profit.
Find out more about the service
2. Win Napster - Strike Rate 37% ROI 42% - December ended on a high for Win
Napster with January offering healthy returns to advised stakes also February however
has not started so well, and although still in profit as a result of the January success it
looks as though things will need to be turned around quite sharply if they are to
maintain their position.
Find out more about the service
3. Nap Investor - Strike Rate 21% ROI 37% - A positive December was followed by a
January which all but totally lost the previous months profit. February got off to a flying
start with 5 points staked on High Aspirations at 9/1. The following 5 selections were
losers and as a consequence the largest part of the profits has almost been completely
wiped out at the time of writing.
Find out more about the service
4. One Point Profits - Strike Rate 20% ROI 36% - 2015 ended well for One Point
Profits the latest two months have been a bit of a struggle. No major losses just a couple
of points each month, so hopefully they can find their previous form.
Find out more about the service
5. L7N Longshots - Strike Rate 28% ROI 29% - A poor December and a healthy
January have been bolstered by a mega February so far with Borough Boy 14/1
winning at Southwell on 10th coupled with two each way placed horses in
Activation 16/1 and Top Pocket 20/1. A few more days like that and they could well
be heading for the top of the table.
Find out more about the service
6. Unity Racing Club - Strike Rate 23% ROI 28% - Ending the year on a sizeable
profit for the month, January although an erratic month was positive throughout and
ended up adding to the overall profits tally. February has kicked off slowly, but as the
service also stakes doubles and trixies it may be that they are waiting for the big one.
Find out more about the service
7. BK Man At The Races - Strike Rate 24% ROI 25% - Profits in December came
from Earcomesthedream 16/1, and January added to the total with Lackamon 14/1 and
quickly followed by Daliance 13/2. February has started of well too and at this rate the
BK Man could be vying for the top slot.
Find out more about the service
8. Howards Eyecatchers - Strike Rate 27% ROI 21% - Howard’s Eyecatchers started
in November 2015 and the service was doing well but February seems to be a sticky
month for them so far and they are in danger of losing a big part of their hard earned
profits if they are not careful.
Find out more about the service
9. Fantastic Eights - Strike Rate 18% ROI 21% - December was a good month for
Fantastic Eights but be aware that January they just fell into the negative and so far in
February you would be over 100 points down to advised stakes. Had you joined at the
start of December you would have had 275 points profit in the bank and you could
stomach these losses, but had you joined at the start of February…now that is a different
story.
Find out more about the service
10. Back Lucrative - Strike Rate 13% ROI 20% - Another one where strike rate may be
an issue is Back Lucrative. Long losing runs and high stakes mean you need to ensure
that you have a sufficient betting bank to absorb the leaner periods.
Find out more about the service
© 2016 Blue Delta Marketing Ltd
