Educational Stratification in Russia During the Soviet Period

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Educational Stratification in Russia During the Soviet PeriodAuthor(s): Theodore P. Gerber and Michael HoutSource: American Journal of Sociology, Vol. 101, No. 3 (Nov., 1995), pp. 611-660Published by: The University of Chicago Press

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Educational Stratificationn Russia during

the Soviet Period1Theodore P. GerberUniversity f Oregon

Michael HoutUniversity f California, erkeley

A national surveyof educational stratificationn Russia revealssubstantial nequality f educationalattainments hroughout heSovietperiod.Parents'education,main earner'soccupation, ndgeographical rigin ontributedothese nequalities.Genderprefer-encesformenwereremoved, nd for some transitionseversed.Although econdary ducation rew apidly, igherducation ailedto keep pace. This disparityed to a university-levelnrollmentsqueeze, and the resulting ottleneck urtdisadvantagedclassesmorethanadvantagedones. In turn he effect f social origins nentering niversityncreased fter1965. The upshotwas no netchange ntheorigin-based ifferencesnthe ikelihood fattaininga VUZ degree crossthreepostwar ohorts.

INTRODUCTION

The expansionof educational nstitutionshroughouthe20th centuryhas resulted n some striking imilarities cross Western ndustrializedsocietiesBlossfeld nd Shavit 1993): 1) Enrollmentsrelative o cohortsize) have increaseddramatically, articularlyt the lower secondary

level (now compulsoryn most ndustrial ations). 2) The associationbetween ocialoriginsndyears f chooling as fallennmany ountrieswhiletheeffects forigin n specificransitionsave remained onstant.

1This s a revised ersion f a paperwe first resentedt the 13thWorldCongressof Sociology, ielefeld,Germany, uly 994. We thankMichael Burawoy,DanielDohan, Martin anchez-Jankowski,nd Yossi Shavitforuseful iscussions f theissues n thispaper. Funding or hisresearch as been provided y the NationalScienceFoundationSES 9209792), heAmerican ouncil f LearnedSocieties,heUniversityf California, erkeley, urveyResearchCenter, nd a Social Science

Research ouncilGraduate raining ellowshipo thefirstuthor. ata collectionwassupported y grants romheJohn . and Catherine . MacArthuroundationandthe pencer oundation, ithdditionalupportrom heNational cience oun-dation SES 8822628).Address orrespondenceo Theodore . Gerber, epartmentof Sociology, niversityf Oregon, 36 PLC, Eugene,Oregon 7403-1291.

? 1995by The Universityf Chicago.Allrights eserved.0002-9602/96/10103-0003$0.50

AJS Volume101Number3 (November1995): 611-60 611







AmericanJournal f Sociology

(3) Social origins ffect ompletion f lower levels of the educationalsystem primarynd lowersecondary)morethanthey ffect ntry o orcompletion f higher evels. 4)Males' advantageover females n educa-tion has graduallydisappeared; n some cases it has reversed.Thesepatterns ppear to transcend ifferencesn socioeconomic nd politicalsystems, s theyalso hold for theformerlytate socialist countries fPoland (Heyns and Bialecki 1993) and, with minormodifications,heformer zechoslovakia Mateju 1993) ndHungary Szelenyi nd Aschaf-fenburg 993).2 Before losing he bookon educational tratificationn-der state socialism,however,we must consider he case of theSoviet

Union. The SovietUnionwas,after

ll,the

leadingCommunist tate.Furthermore,tate ocialismhad a longer ife here ndwas homegrownrather han mposedbya foreign ccupying ower. Thus, we oughttoguard against generalizingo the Soviet Union itself he historical at-terns ound n itssatellite tates.

In the 1950s,Western ociologistsook forgranted he mportance feducationas a determinantf individuals' ife chances in the SovietUnion. nkelesand Bauer (1959) argued hat he role of education ntheSoviet stratificationrocesswas greaterhan nmarket ocieties ecause

of theabsenceofself-employments an alternative hannelforupwardmobility.More recentlycholarshavequestioned he mportance f edu-cationbecause the absenceof"market iscipline" roded the returns oeducation Connor 1991).Without conomicreturnswhywould youngpeopleinvest n humancapital by pursuing dvancededucation?

The Soviet regime or ts part embraced n ideology f equal access,butpursued tonlyfitfully. mixofstrongnd weakpolicies ttemptedto reduce nequalitiesn the educational ttainments f theoffspringfdiverse lasses. Some Sovietscholarshave claimeda certain equalizing

anddrawing ogether"sblizhenie) fsocial classes withrespect oeduca-tional evel Vasil'evaet al. 1985).OtherSovietsociologists eganin the1960s to conducthighlyocalized studiesof educational spirations ndattainmentse.g., Rutkevich nd Fillipov 1978). Theyfound ubstantialdifferencesmong groupsof differentocial origin.Western ommenta-torsfamiliarwith uchSoviet tudieshave concludedwithcertaintyhatsome associationbetween social origins nd attainments, articularlywithrespect o attaining college education,existed n Soviet societythroughouthepostwar ra (Yanowitch 1977;Dobson 1977, 1980; Con-

nor1991). But the complete bsence ofeducational tratifications toostrict test.No society ouldpass it (Blossfeld nd Shavit 1993).

2 In Czechoslovakia he effect f father's ducation-but not father'sccupation-first eclined fter hetransitiono Communismn 1948,but thenreturnedo andexceededts nitial evel. n Hungaryhe xpansion f enrollmentselative o cohortsize at the ow and high econdaryevelswaspreceded y a contraction.

612







EducationalStratification

How unequal was access to higher ducationntheSovietUnion?Theprecise magnitudes fkey parameters emainunclear,at least in partbecause studies re imited ytheirnadequatemeasures rbythe imitedscopeof their amples.Too many tudies ddress spirations ather hanachievements. one address ll of the mportantducational ransitionswithin n integratedramework. hangeovertimecannotbe assessed;even the direction f change is in doubt. Soviet studiesare also toolocalized-often confininghemselves o single ownsor even single n-terprises-toallow for umulation f their eparate esults.Mostemployoverly road socialorigin ategories-suchas theofficialripartiteovietclass schema of "workers," collective

farmers,"nd

"employees"-thatmaymask associationsnd make nternationalomparisonsmpossi-ble. They present ata in simplebivariate ross-tabulations,ftenwith-outprovidingmarginal istributions. ultivariatenalysis nd testsforstatistical ignificancerevirtually nknown.3 ross-cohortomparisonswithstandardized ndicators re available in onlyone study, nd it isbased on unreliable fficialtatisticsVasil'eva 1978).4

The Russian component f the ComparativeClass Structure nd Con-sciousness roject Wright 986; Hout, Wright,nd Sanchez-Jankowski

1992)contains noughdetail on education nd social origin o estimatethe effectsertainingo sixSovietcohorts.We follow heprotocol f thestudies collectedby Blossfeld nd Shavit (1993) and focus on severalsocial originvariables and gender s thekey ndicators fequal accessand opportunity. e estimateheir ffectsn theprobabilitiesf uccess-fully ompleting oursuccessiveeducationaltransitions singa modelproposedbyMare (1980) and nowinwide usefor omparative esearch.As background,we describe he Sovieteducation ystemnd enrollmenttrends n Russia during he Sovietperiod,reviewpreviousfindingsn

inequalitiesnSovieteducational ttainmentsnmoredetail, nd discussvariouspolicies akenbySoviet eaders o address hehistoricalnequali-ties and thosethatarose as a consequenceof Soviet-erapolicies. Ourresults hed ight nhitherto nexaminable spectsof educational trati-ficationnRussiaduring heSovietperiod ndpermitheaddition f theRussiancase to thecomparative nalysis f educational nequality.

3There re some xceptionso thisgeneral epiction f Soviet tudies feducationalstratification.utkevichndFillipov 1978) ample rom ix areas andregions. ob-son

1977) ites wo tudies hat rovide orrelationoefficientsetween arent'sndchildren'sducationalevel.However, hese xceptionsail n other rounds o serveas adequate bases for pecifyinghemagnitudertrend forigin ffectsn attain-ments.4 The HarvardProject urveyfSoviet itizens isplaced y WorldWar I (InkelesandBauer 1959) ndtheSoviet nterview rojecturveyfemigresnthe ate 1970s(Millar1987) re notsuitable ue to theself-selectedature f thesamples nd thecorrelationetween ducationnd emigration.

613







AmericanJournal fSociology

Russia during he Sovietperiod s an interestingest ase for he maxi-mallymaintained nequalityMMI) framework roposedby Raftery ndHout (1993). The persistencef educational tratificationcross cohortsof rish and British tudents uggested generalizationbout nequality.Raftery nd Hout inferred he generalprinciple hat privileged lasseshave a greater nterestn the advancement f their wn offspringhanin blocking he advancement f students rom ther lasses, this workproposesfour pecific ypotheses. he key propositionn MMI is thattransition atesand odds ratios between ocial origin nd educationaltransitionsemain he ame from ohort o cohort nlessforced ochange

by ncreasing nrollments. ore specifically:1. All else being qual, growthnthecapacity f secondary nd highereducationwill reflect he increaseddemand occasioned by populationgrowth if any)and the gradual upgrading fsocial origins vertime ifany). In thiscase, origin-specificransitionates remain hesame overtime. This was the case for he two oldest rishcohorts nd also for lltheEnglishcohorts.

2. If for ome reasoneducational pportunityxpands faster han thedemandthat s attributableoupgradingocialorigins ises, hen ransi-

tion rates for ll social origins ncrease,but the ncreaseoccurs n sucha wayas topreserve ll the ransition classoddsratios.Thishappenedbetween he twoyoungestrish cohorts.

3. If demand for given evel of education s saturated or he upperclasses-that is, if omeorigin-specificransitionates pproachorreach100%-then the oddsratiosdecrease i.e., the ssociation etween ocialorigin nd education s weakened).This diminishednequality foppor-tunity ccursonly ftheexpansion n enrollment annot be accommo-dated in anyotherway. This was the case for ntry o the second evel

between he second and third rish cohorts.4. An equalizationcan be reversed.For example, if enrollmentn

academicsecondary ducationhad been morewidespread mongwork-ingclass youthsn reland, hefallingonditional robabilitiesf uccess-fultransitiono higher ducation n the 1956cohortmighthave led toan increase n the effect forigin n entryntohigher ducation.

MMI might merge rom he rational hoicesofparents nd students.Parents in advantaged circumstances nd studentsfromadvantagedbackgroundsremore nterestednfurtheringheir wngoalsandaspira-tions thanthey re in blocking he advance of lower-class tudents. notherwords,MMI assumes thattheir nterests in thesubstantive oalofmaximizingheir wn education,not n the derivative oal of main-taining lass differentials.

As we shall show,Russian educationmodernized uring he Sovietperiod.But that modernization as veryuneven.Many reformswere

614







Educational Stratification

tried,oftenwith results hat were not intended.Most important, hereforms t lower evels put pressures n upper evels of the educationalsystem.Rapid expansion f secondary ducation nitially oweredratesof completing cademic secondary ducation called "general" econdaryin Russia). Then the expansion f general econdary ducationbroughtso many tudents o the doorsof the universitieshatmatriculationatesfor tudentwithacademicdiplomasdecreased.According oMMI, weought o expect ducational tratificationnRussia to increase uring heSovietperiod n response o these nrollmentressures.As thenecessityto select ntensifies, MI predicts ncreased ffects f social origin the

complement o the "saturation" rgument).Djilas (1965) and the "new class" theoristswho have followedpre-dicted growing tratificationn state socialist ystems or differentea-sons. They did not anticipate nrollmentrunches; heyfocusedon thetemptationsnd corruptionsfpower. n a totalitarianociety, hemoti-vation to aid one's offspringomes togetherwith the means, and, ac-cordingto Djilas, the temptations irresistible. ungarianeducationrestratifiedn the second generation f Communism fter n initialde-stratificationSimkus and Andorka1982; Szelenyiand Aschaffenberg

1993). n Czechoslovakia, artymembership as independent foccupa-tion, nd the effectsfoccupation n educationwere mediated y politi-cal tests Mateju 1993).

It is not possible to comparethe first eneration fRussian studentsto complete ts schooling nderSoviet powerwithpreviousgenerationsbecause there are far too few of eithergroup n our sample. We do,however,have enough nformationo compare ix Soviet cohorts, egin-ningwith hose ducated before he Second WorldWar. We have speci-fiedcohorts nd a division fthe educationalprocess ntotransitionsn

such a way that llowsus toseparate hepressures or tratificationhatstemfrom he exerciseof elitepowerfrom hepressures enerated yinstitutionalhange.

THE SOVIET EDUCATIONAL SYSTEM

History nd Structure

Inthe arlyyears ollowingheRussianRevolutionn1917, heBolsheviksset boutnationalizingllschooling. campaign gainst lliteracypurredrapid growthnenrollments. xperimentationn curriculum, edagogy,and administrationlternatedwith traditionalist acklashes Matthews1983)until hemid-1930s.Radicalpoliciesreached headduring talin's"cultural evolution"roughly 928-31).The twohigher rades f econd-ary ducationthen he ighthndninth)were bolishednfavor funiver-

615








sal vocational raining.A variety f"workers' aculties" nd apprentice-ship schools armarked o raise the educational ualificationsf workersand peasants proliferated. ighereducational nstitutions, articularlythoseof a technical haracter, apidly ecruitedargenumbers fadultworkers Fitzpatrick 979).The vacillating oliciesbrought onsiderabledisarraywhich,nturn, rought xperimentationo a close. By 1934 radi-tional ducational hilosophieswereonceagainestablished.General ec-ondary ducationwas reinstated.Universaltextbookswere mandated.Wholly standardized,traditionalpedagogical techniques, curricula,grades, nd rigid xaminations erereinstituted.niversityecruitersis-

continued olicies hatfavored pplicants fworking-classrigin.The highly entralized, tandardized, nd regimentedystem rystal-lized by 1934 Matthews 972); t remained t leastthrough he 1970s. Thespecificministryncharge feducation hiftedromime otime,but cen-tralgovernmentrgansretained irect esponsibilityor ll aspectsof tsadministration-especially taffing,urriculum etails,and proceduresfor dmittingtudentsMatthews1983).The Communist artywieldedinfluence ver educational olicy romwithin hesegovernmentalrgansand via declarationsfpolicy oalsby tsCentralCommittee,ften ollow-

ingPartyCongressesProkof'ev 985).The basiccourse fgeneral nstruc-tionbeganat age 7,lasted10years,5ndwas divided nto hree tages:Primary.-This initialstage comprises lasses 1-4 until 1970, 1-3

thereafter.Lower secondary.-This stage (nepol'noe rednee-literally"incom-

plete econdary")asted throughheseventh radeuntil1958,theeighthgrade thereafter.

Secondary.-This stagewas composedoftheremaining rades.General ducational chools ame npart- nd full-timearieties, ome

offeringnly primary lasses,someprimarynd lowersecondary, ndsomeall three evels. In time, choolsofferingll three evelspredomi-nated.

Parallel to and extending omewhat beyond the general secondarytrackwas a vocational rack,whichwas composed f wotypes f nstitu-tions. Vocational schoolsdesigned o teachmanual skillsto those withlower secondary ducation r less underwent seriesof reorganizationsand name changesbefore merging s "professional-technicalchools"(orPTUs bytheirRussianacronym)n 1959. nitially, hese ower-gradevocational choolsdid not offer general econdary urriculum nd di-

5 Beginningntheearly1980s, ncreasing umbersfsix-year-oldsere nrolledn"grade ero"preparatoryrogramsngeneral chools Dunstan1983).The standard10-year eneral choolprogram as supplementedy an additional leventh ear nsome epublics-notablyheBaltics-whereRussian anguage rainingncreasedhecurriculumurdenndrequireddditionalnstructionime.

616








ploma, though entativelyn the mid-1950s nd in increasing umbersduring he 1970s SPTUs, schools combining ocationaltrainingwith asecondary iploma, were established Connor 1991). The other,higher-grade component f the vocational rackwas the "specialized econdaryschool" also known s thetekhnikum), hich rained ower-level rofes-sionals such as technicians, urses, ibrarians, nd elementary choolteachers. ome programsnsuch schoolswere vailable only o graduatesofgeneral econdary chools,otherswere designed or tudents nteringwithonly ower secondary ducation.

Higher ducation ookplaceinuniversitiesnd more pecialized insti-

tutes," all of which are lumped under the catch-all acronym VUZ"(vysshee chebnoe avedenie,or "higher ducational stablishment").tis important o note thatfollowing he rollback f the radical policiesofthe ultural evolution,dmission oVUZs was highly ompetitive-basedlargely n entrance xams,though radeswere lso considered eginningin 1972 Dobson 1977). n practice dmission o a VUZ became possibleonlyupon completionfthetenth radeof a general econdary chool. n1944a secondary chooldiplomabecamea formal equirementor dmis-sion thus xcludingll PTU graduates utthefewwho could winexemp-

tions).Graduates f specialized econdary choolswere required o workfor t leastthree earsbefore ontinuingheir ducation, nd graduates fSPTUs usually idnothaveadequatepreparationor ompetitiventranceexams RutkevichndFillipov 1978;Avis 1983).Thus, a crucial electionpoint ndeterminingifferentialccess tohigherducation ccurred poncompletionf ower econdary chool,when tudents ouldproceed ogen-eralsecondarychool-which hadnoadmission equirementsther hancompletionf ower econdaryYanowitch1977)-or enter hevocationaltrack rtheworkforce,ither fwhich ffectivelyrecludedventualVUZ

entry.As one Sovietresearcheroncludes,noting hatover95% ofVUZentrantswere general secondarygraduates,the social composition fVUZ studentss highly onditioned ythesystem fpre-VUZeducation(Samoilova 1978,p. 113).6

Enrollments

Enrollmentsn all typesof institutions rew rapidlyduring he Sovietperiod fig. 1). Expansionat theprimaryevel was greatest efore he

6 In addition othe ypes f nstitutionsiscussed ere, he ystemlso ncluded arioustypes f pecial chools or he xceptionallyifted, entallyeficient,nd for he d-vanced ducation f ertain lite artymembersndmilitaryersonnelseeMatthews1982, hap. 6). Some uch nstitutions-notablyspecial" igh chools or hegifted-have beenattackedn egalitarian roundsRutkevichnd Fillipov1978).However,since urdata do notgive ny nformationn participationn uch nstitutions-whichinany vent eem fmarginal uantitativeignificance-wegnore hem.

617







A. Primary

45 7

~400 6 - -35 ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Gra~

_ 4

220~~~~~~~~~~~~~~0 15 -

0 0

o10 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990

alltyes chols nt jsB.a schondas.oatindigher iuefr13n

1977r rmFtptik(99 .28 ndpran epciey o13n

c,)3~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~c

0 710

1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990

1938. Other ources re TsSU (1977, pp. 7, 68, 145,153, 13)and GKSPS (1989,pp. 48, 49, 148, 159, 193).








TABLE 1

OFFICIAL SOVIET STATISTICS ON ENROLLMENTS AND EDUCATION: SELECTED YEARS,1926-84*

YEARt

1926-27 1939-40 1959-60 1970 1984-85

1. Total enrollments ............ 12.0 36.9 38.8 56.4 54.42. Population ..................... 147.0 194.1 208.8 241.7 276.3

3. Population 6-24 years

old ....................... NA 72.9 70.6 84.1 84.0

4. Employed with at

least lower secondary

certificate %) ............... NA 12.3 43.3 65.3 86.8

SOURCES.-Fitzpatrick 1979); GKSPS (1989); TsSU (1966,p. 8; 1977; 1985,p. 29); Gel'fand 1992,pp. 37, 94, 126, 168, 171).

* Statistics re inmillions nlessotherwisendicated.t The first ear n each pair pertains o rows2 and 4, thesecondto rows 1 and 3. The figure or

1939-40 in row3 applies to January , 1941.

Second WorldWar; at higherevelsit peaked followinghewar, espe-

ciallyduring he1960s.This expansionkept head of the Sovietpopula-tion table 1). Between1927and 1985,enrollmentsn the fivetypesofinstitutionsisted nfigure grewby 453%, faroutstrippinghepopula-tiongrowth f 188% thatoccurred t the same time.More important,thenumberof enrollmentsrew by 5.1% between1940and 1960 andthenby an additional45.4% by 1970,whiletheschool-agepopulationcontracted y 3.2% during he first eriod,and grew by only 19.1%during he second.Thus, the somewhat ow enrollmentigure or1960reflectshetailend ofthedemographicwar dent" thedip inpopulation

causedbythe ow number f births uringWorldWar II; see Matthews1982) as well as the mpact f Khrushchev's ducation olicies discussedbelow). The proportionftheemployed opulation ntitled o claim atleast a lower secondary ducation grew steadilyfollowing he SecondWorld War. Precisedata on coverage t various evels are scarce,but twould seemthatuniversal rimaryducationwas declared goalin 1928and achievedby 1933 (Prokof'ev1985, pp. 69-70). Compulsoryowersecondarywas officiallyeclared n 1949 (Inkelesand Bauer 1959, p.130), reaffirmedn thenew eight-yearasis in 1958,achieved n urbanareas by 1962 Matthews1972, p. 260), and practicallychieved n theRussian Federationby themid-1970s,with95% of those who enteredthe first rade in 1965 completinghe eighth n 1974 (Rutkevich ndFillipov 1978, p. 74).

Trendsin complete econdary chooland VUZ coverage fig. 2) aremorecomplex nd extremelymportantor ur discussion.Beginningn

619








100%- 100%

90% -_GSlaes 900%0

80% - 17-yr.ld

70% 70%

g 60% 600/o

50% 50%0/

40%40o

N30% 30%

20% - - - - - / 20%

10%/0 --_ / 17-yr.old 10% c"

0% I I I I I I 0%

1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985

FIG. 2.-Enrollment ratiosbased on official ata and censuscounts, SovietUnion, 1940-85. Estimatesbasedon officialertility, ortality,ndcensusdata)ofannual number f 17-year-oldsn the first ayof each yearare providedbyGel'fand 1992). Annualenrollmentiguresre taken fromTsSU (1977, pp. 93,246; 1981, pp. 458, 468; 1983, p. 468; 1985, pp. 515, 525).

1945 enrollmentsnboth grewrapidly, nd the ratios fgeneral econd-ary school eaversto 17-year-oldsnd ofVUZ entrants o 17-year-oldsbothrose;but from 952to 1958 the former ose at a morepitched ate,while he atter lightlyeclined.7This trendwas brieflyeversedtartingin 1959, as the war dent's decline n 17-year-olds as not enoughtooverride decline n secondary choolenrollmentsccasionedbyKhru-shchev'sreforms, hileVUZ enrollmentsrewat a newly nvigoratedpace from1957to 1966. Khrushchev ell frompowerin 1964 and hispolicieswere quickly bandoned; nthemid-1960s niversal eneral ec-

ondary ducationwas proclaimed goal Yanowitch1977,p. 73),eventu-ally enshrinedn the Soviet constitutionProkof'ev 1985, p. 82), andofficially eclared "achieved" n the ate 1970s Rutkevich nd Fillipov1978, p. 55; Vasil'eva etal. 1985, p. 158).As a result, eneral econdarygraduation atesresumed heir itchedgrowth. he policy faccommo-dating ll students rom rimary hrough eneral econdarynone build-ingmeantthattheexpansion f secondary nrollmentsouldbe accom-plished with a minimum f new construction. niversities ould notexpand as easily,norwas there hepoliticalmandateto do so. Conse-

quently,VUZ openings ould notkeep pace withthe size of theensuing"baby boom" cohorts nd higher econdary ompletion ates, causing

7The ratiosdisplayed n fig.2 are onlyroughndicators f theprobabilityhata17-year-oldn a given ohortwillcomplete eneralecondarychool renter VUZ.Clearly,ome ccomplishedither r both tagesotherhan17,especiallynthe aseofVUZ entryn theyears ollowinghewar.

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TABLE 2

SOVIETFINDINGSON EDUCATIONALTTAINMENTFTENTHGRADEGRADUATES:NovosIBIRSK,1963

% Planningo % ThatActually idParent's ccupation* Study ull-Time Study ull-Time

Urban ntelligentsia.................................. 93 82Rural intelligentsia................................... 76 58Workers:manufacturing,onstruction ........... 83 61Workers: ommunication,ransportation ....... 82 45Workers: griculture................................. 76 10

Serviceworkers .................................. 76 59Others.................................. 50 25Total ................... ................ 83 61

SOURCE.-Shubkin1965, . 65,table ). Sampleize sunclear.*Basedonfather'sccupationith ubstitutionfmother'sffathers not resent.

VUZ enrollment atesto fall off. These patterns re captured by thecurve n figure thatrepresentshe annual ratios ofVUZ entrants o

general econdary eavers, which,aside from heperiod1959 to 1963,persistentlyeclines-first bruptly,henmoregradually.8These enrollmentrends mply hat s coverage t the ower econdary

level rapidly ncreasedfollowingheSecond World War, the transitionfrom owertogeneral econdary ecame more elective.From 1945 until1953 annual VUZ intakes exceeded annual general secondarygradua-tions,meaning otmuch electionwas occurringt this ransition. ow-ever,with hegrowthngeneral econdary nrollments,articularlyromthemid-1960s nward, twas this ransition-from eneral econdary o

VUZ-that became thecrucial election oint.

Origins nd Attainments-Association, echanisms,Trends

From 1938 until themid-1960s,no data on the social composition fVUZ students r the differentialducational ttainments fdifferentri-gingroupswerepublished Matthews 972).Soviet tudies evealing uchorigin-specificifferencesegan appearing n theearly 1960s,and camequickly o constitute sizable iteraturehathasbeenthoroughlyumma-

8 Part of the campaign oruniversal econdaryducation nvolvedbolsteringhenumber f SPTUs-vocational schools ffering secondary ducation long withvocational raining.nrollmentsnSPTUs-whose numbersncreased rom 80,000in 1970 o 1,216,000n 1975 o2,168,000n 1980 TsSU 1982,p. 503)-are includedin thevocational ategoryn fig.1. SPTU graduates re not ncludednthe figuresforgeneral econdaryeavers sed to calculate heratios nfig. .

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TABLE 3

SOVIET FINDINGS ON EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF EIGHTH GRADE GRADUATES:LENINGRAD, 1968

ACTIVITY IN YEAR FOLLOWING

8TH GRADE (%)

PARENT'SOCCUPATION* NinthGrade Tekhnikum PTU/Work

Nonmanual, requiring ighereducation .................... ........... 86 11 3

Nonmanual, requiring pecializedsecondary............................... 70 15 15

Skilledworkers ............................... 52 27 21Unskilled workers and nonmanual

with no educational requirements .......... 25 25 50

SOURCE.-Vasil'eva (1973,p. 41, table 16). Samplesize is unclear.* Basedon"higher"f woparents'ccupationshen hey iffer.

TABLE 4

SOVIET FINDINGS ON EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT IN SIX REGIONS, EIGHTH AND

TENTH GRADERS, 1973

% EighthGradersPlanning % Tenth GradersFather's Education GeneralSecondary tudy PlanningVUZ Study

Less than primary ................ 30.7 18.3

Primary ............................. 35.1 26.2

Lower secondary .................. 44.1 39.2

General secondary ................ 60.5 61.8

Specialized secondary ............ 50.9 55.8

Higher education ................. 78.7 76.9

SOURCE.-RutkevichndFillipov1978, . 94,table 1).N = 9,800-eighthraders; ,278 enthgraders.

rized nd analyzed ntheWest see,e.g., Yanowitch 1977;Dobson 1977,1980; Connor 1991).Herewe present sampling,n tables2-5, to givean impression fthe character nd magnitude f inequalitiesdiscernedin Sovietresearch.These figureshowthat, n a variety f ocations ndat a variety ftimes, hildrenwhoseparentshad higherevels ofeduca-tion, higher tatusspecialistobs, or both weremore ikely hanthosewhoseparentshad lower evelsofeducation, ow status obs, orbothtoaspire to generalsecondary r VUZ educationand to actuallyattainthese evels.Aside from he educational nd occupationaldimensions forigins, hegeographical imension lso receives ignificantttention nthesestudies,withurban-dwellinghildrenhavingtheadvantageover

622








TABLE 5

SOVIET FINDINGS ON EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT OF EMPLOYED16-30-YEAR-OLDS IN KOSTROMA, 1978

% With ullGeneralFather's ccupation Secondaryducation

Agricultural manual .................... ............... 29.3

Unskilled manual .......................... ............ 32.1

Semiskilled manual ...................... .............. 36.2

Skilled manual ......................................... . 54.0

Unskilled nonmanual ................... ............... 43.4

Nonmanual with higher education ......... ........ 69.4

SOURCE.-Shubkin (1984, p. 65, table 15). N is unclear but thesample isdescribeds one-fourthf mployed6-30-year-olds.

rural dwellers n aspirations nd achievements Samoilova 1978; Rut-kevich and Fillipov 1978; Vasil'eva 1978). Some evidence suggests d-vantagesaccrue to those fromhigher ncomegroupsand those fromdual-parentfamilies Rutkevich nd Fillipov 1978). The educational

aspirationsnd attainmentsfyoungmen and womenbegantoequalizebytheearly 1970s Vasil'eva 1978;Avis 1983).Given the absence (exceptfor the period 1940-56) of entrancefees

forgeneral secondary nd VUZ studyand the meritocratic ature ofVUZ selection, he selectionmechanisms eneratingheseorigin-basedinequalitiescan be reduced to related differencesn aspirationsandperformance. he role of parental encouragementn shaping aspira-tions s oftennoted Shubkin 1965; Samoilova 1978; Zaslavsky 1982),and students rom ower social originsmay be "discouragedby their

poor academic performance, y theirfamily'surgentneed for addi-tionalbreadwinners,r bythe trauma associated with thehigh proba-bilityof failure n the intensecompetition"Yanowitch 1977, p. 81).Regardingperformance,part fromorigin-specificifferencesn abil-ity-on whichno data appearsto exist-certainfactors ave beennotedto enhancetheperformancef students romhigher ocial origins: heyare more ikelyto receivepreschoolpreparation; heirhome environ-ment s characterized ya higher ultural evel and is moreconducivetostudy; heir arents akegreaternterestnand morefrequently oni-tortheirwork;they re less likely o be required oworkto support hefamily; nd theyare more likelyto have access to tutorsand test-preparatoryourses Vasil'eva 1973;Dobson 1977, 1980;Rutkevich ndFillipov 1978 . A keyelementnthe urban/rural istinctionppearstobe the nferiorualityofprimarynd secondary rainingn rural areas(Zaslavsky 1982).

623








Somecommentatorsptimisticallyquatedaccesswithequality.Theyclaimedorigin-basednequalitiesweredeclining nd would continue odeclineovertimedue to thespreadofuniversal econdaryducation ndthe equalizingeffects f economicgrowthRutkevich1977; Rutkevichand Fillipov 1978;Dobson 1977).Theyassumed that economicgrowthwould level the objectiveconditions f differentocial origingroups.Others,recognizinghe increased electivityt thepointofVUZ entrydue totheenrollmentrends iscussed bove, claimed hat uchcompeti-tiveconditions-whichwere onlyexacerbatedn themid-1960s y thepostwarbaby boom-would heighten he advantagesof groupsfrom

higher ocial origins Shubkin1965; Avis 1983). This would imply n-creasingnheritancefhigh nd loworigins like,becausehigher duca-tion s themainmechanism or herecruitmentohigh-statusntelligen-tsia positions. n thisvein, someWestern ommentatorsuggested hatthe class structure f Sovietsocietybegan to "crystallize"n the 1970sand predicted olitical nstabilityue to the socialmalaisegenerated yfrustrated obilityspirationsLapidus 1983;Connor 1991).

Claims aboutrisingnequalitynd itssupposedpolitical onsequencesare based more on suppositions egarding heimpactof the increased

competition t theVUZ entry ointthanon actual data. It is possiblethat ncreased electivityt thatpointwas counterbalancedy decreasedselection t thegeneral econdaryevel,resultingn little r no changein theoverallorigin-specificrobabilitiesfattaining igher ducation.Stratification ight imply e delayed nparallelwith hedelay nselec-tion.Moreover,official ata citedbyRutkevich nd Fillipov 1978, p.110) portray n increase n therepresentationfworkers mongVUZstudents rom 7.1% in 1969-70to45.5% in 1975-76and a correspond-ing decrease n therepresentationfnonmanual mployees rom 4.4%

to47.0%. The reliabilityfsuchfiguress highlyuestionable, owever,giventhe nconsistentlassificationrocedures f official UZ statistics(studentswho held a job prior oVUZ entry re classified ccording othenature fthat ob; therest reclassifiedccording oparent's ccupa-tion).All inall, itmustbe concluded hat hetrue xtent nddirectionfpostwar rendsn theassociation etween ocialorigins nd educationalattainments,s well as theprecisemagnitudef henet ffectsfdifferentdimensions forigins, emainunclear.

Policies,Reforms

The rapidpostwargrowth fsecondaryducation pawnedhitherto n-heardof ocialproblems-including outh nemploymentnd the preadof "overeducated,undertrained"Connor1991) graduates.The Khru-shchev egime1956-64)undertookhefirstttemptince heearly1930s

624








to reformecondary nd higher ducation.Khrushchev's eformsoughtto redress he disadvantages f students rom ower ocial origins nd tocope with he ocial problem. n 1956 uitionwas abolished, olytechnicalcurriculawerepromotedn general econdary chools, nd part-timeUZstudywas assigned reater mphasis.Admission ules tVUZ weregradu-ally changedto encouragegreatermatriculation y students rom owersocial origins.To accomplish his, the Khrushchev eforms stablishedgenerous uotasfor pplicantswith woormoreyears f production xpe-rience" Matthews 1982, p. 154). More sweepingmeasureswere intro-duced n 1958. Eightrather han10years f chooling ecametheofficial

normforSoviet youngpeople; the ast two classes of general econdaryschoolwereextended o three,whilethegeneral urriculum as changedto includemandatory rainingn practical kills nd work nternshipstenterprisesrfarms; uotas favoring roductionandidates orVUZ entrywere ncreased reaching 0% insome nstitutions);vening nd correspon-dence ourseswererapidly xpanded, ccountingor 9%of he1.4 millionincrease nVUZ enrollments etween1958 and 1964; and (in 1959) stateenterprisesnd collective armswere given heright o sponsor orVUZadmission ndividual mployees,who werethusable toforego ntrance

exams Matthews 972,chaps. 9,10; 1982).Though hard evidence s not available, Khrushchev's eforms ppar-entlyfailed on most counts, thoughthey did temporarily eversetherelativegrowth rends f higher nd secondary nstitutionssee fig.2).More generally, hey roducedhigher ropout ates,declining UZ stan-dards, and muchresentment,specially mongfacultywhohad to workmore eveninghours to accommodate he part-time UZ students.Fol-lowing Khrushchev'sdownfall n 1964, his reformswere reversed nshortorder,marking a return owardsmore elitist rends" Matthews

1972, p. 305). But, in a society xpressly ommitted o overcoming hedifferencesetween ocialclasses ndcreating reaterocialhomogeneity(Rutkevich1977), the persistence feducational nequalities-revealedby sociological esearch-was bound to remain sourceof concern.

ThoughSoviet ommentatorsould point o declining ifferencesn thepercentagesfvarious ocialorigin roups eceivingower econdarydu-cation occasionedbythe aturationfhigh-originemand ndthe preadofuniversal ower econdary chooling)s evidence fa putative equal-ization" fthe ducational evelsofdifferentocialgroups e. g.,Vasil'evaetal. 1985,p. 158), uchclaimswere learly nderminedypublicdiscus-sionsofpersistentnequalities thigherevels.Recognizinghat nequali-tieswererooted ndifferencesn actualability, nalysts ustifiedhem nfunctionalerms-arguing hat ociety ad tomakebestuse ofthedemon-stratedbilities f ts itizensnorder o inconsummateialectical ashion)progress ufficientlyoovercome ll differencesnsocialsituations-and

625








tended oreject pecialpolicies opromoteheunderprivilegedegardlessofability Rutkevich 977; Shubkin 965, 1984).

Instead, the regime n the early1970s adopted policies designed toequalize opportunitiesor he enhancementfability, uch as measuresto improve he materialbase and qualityof nstructionn rural generalschools Rutkevich nd Fillipov 1978). n 1969 specialVUZ "preparatorydepartments" ere established o providea supplementary rogram fspecial preparation rimarilyo leading youngworkers, easants, anddemobilized oldiers nominated ytheirworkplace r unit),who wereallowed directentry o full-time UZs without ntrance xams upon

successful ompletion f the program. he number f participants om-pleting uch programs umped from bout 20,000 in 1970 (Rutkevichand Fillipov 1978, p. 63) to 97,000 n 1976according o Avis (1983, p.225), who argues that the expansionof suchdivisions ccountedfor asizable portion fVUZ enrollmentrowth uring he 1970s and had asignificantmpacton the social compositionfVUZ students.

No reliabledata has beenpresented emonstratinghe actual impact,ifany, of these reforms n origin-based ducational nequality.Our re-sults allow us to determinefreformruly ailedto reduce educational

stratificationn Soviet Russia as itdid in all ofthe 13 countries tudiedin Shavit and Blossfeld1993).9

DATAAND METHODS

Data weredrawnfrom wosurveysonductednRussia with he ame n-strument, hichwas designedn a collaborative ffortf American ndRussian research eams.'0A clustered ample representativef adultsdwellingntheEuropeanpartoftheRussianFederationwas interviewed

under he uspicesofthe nstitute fSociology, tMoscow's SovietAcad-emyofSciences, nJanuary-February991 N = 2,177). n April 1991arandom ample of adults ntwomiddle-sized ities nthe Komi Autono-mous Republic,RSFSR, was interviewed nder hedirection fMichaelBurawoy N = 476). We combined he amples o ncrease urcase base,I Anadditional weeping etofreforms as introducedn1984,primarilyoaddressgrowingmanpower roblems y channelingmore tudentsntovocational tudies(Rutkevich 984). The reform as short-livedConnor1991,p. 99) and fell t thevery nd ofour period f study,o wewilldisregardt.10 It should e kept n mind hat hereferenceopulation or urdata-and thus uroriginal mpirical indings-is hatof EuropeanRussia, while hatformost fthefiguresnd patterns escribednpreviousectionss that fthe ntire ovietUnion.We are aware of the risks fgeneralizingrom ussia to the USSR and regret hisinconsistencyfunit f nalysis, ut t s madeunavoidable ythedearth f tatisticsand previousiteratureocusingn Russia." For details n design f the nstrument,amplingnd interviewrocedures,e-sponse ates, nd quality hecks, ee Hout et al. (1992).

626








thenremoved ases withmissing ata and of thoseborn fter 967 whomaynothave completed heir ducation y 1991). The net s 2,141 cases.

To measure he effects f background n educational ttainments, eemploy recentversion Raftery nd Hout 1993; Blossfeld nd Shavit1993)of modelfirst ioneered yMare 1980, 1981),which reats ttain-ments s a series ftransitions-not scalar accumulation fyears.Eachtransition as is own distinctmagnitudes nd patterns f effects. et Pikrepresent he probability hat tudent at some evelk - 1 will success-fully omplete he transition o the next evel k. Let Yikbe the logistictransformfPikand letXij represent he set ofJ independent ariableslinearly elated o

Yikby a set of regression oefficients

j:Ylk = In( p) = Ok + IXij. (1)

Since the j are notsubscripted yeither ork, we include variety finteraction erms mong theXi. to allow for evel- and cohort-specificeffects,s well as to detect nteractionsmongorigin ariables. Cohort-specific escriptive tatistics n all ofthe independent ariablesare intable6.

Our data enable us to model fourtransitions:1) the completion flower secondary chool; 2) the completion f general econdary chool,given the completion f lower secondary; 3) the entry o college, givencompletion fgeneral econdary; nd (4) completion f a collegedegree,given college entry.12 e coded respondents' ighest evel of educationattained ntofive ategories see table6), thefirst ourmadeup of thosewho failed to make the correspondinglyumbered ransition,he lastthosewho made all transitions.We assumed that all those with"some

college"or higherhad completedgeneral secondary chool, since thiswas byfar hemost ommon oute oVUZ entry,s discussed bove. Wecoded those ndicating lower vocational" education as having"lowersecondary," ince the lower vocational track was designedfor ower-secondary eavers and is for most an educationalcul-de-sac.'3Those

12 We werenot able to model he transitionrom ompletionf ower econdaryoentry o general econdary ince therewas no "some general econdary" ategoryavailable o respondents. e doubt,however, hat henumber f general econdaryschool ropoutss significant;hese nstitutionsave a two-yearurationnd variousvocational lternativesre availableto lower econdaryeaverswith ess academicinclinations.13 We treat s "lower ocational" hosewho answered PTU" to the question bouthigh evelof education ompleted. ome respondentsiving his esponsemayhaveattended PTU, a formfvocational rainingnstituteot isted mong heresponsecategories. n SPTU is functionallyhe ame s a PTU and nferioro the pecializedtechnical ducation f thetekhnikum,espite tsname.

627







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l~~~~~~~~~~~~n 1- t oo O-, c n

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Q N tnt L f )n

H H

HC/) S. 0100 ~ L)~tf

C\ tt o - 0 N

~~~00cI -n - cnoo c-n

00~~~~0

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~O:n CN

- --qD 0

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X~~~~~~~~~~ a CI N O bC nOq>~~~~~~~~~~~~Cd C) -- w

Cj .) .d .. . -.. .. . . .. . . . . I

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U628







O -- r- 'I I 4 - t 'I C" r- ir t cn n C' cn 0

O f Lo O rt-00c C tI r 'O 0

1- 00 1- O o -- cn C- D -r DQLfc c c-II 0Q O t In O 'O 00 00

t Lf > m'?ecEzt 'IO00

I-) - N j o 4 -4 o ON 'oo - lz oo

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.dC'd 0~~~~

oO- U 0 0bk141 C U b

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C) 0 X.ld.

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629

d o cd o .w W u W u~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

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C)~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~,~~~~~4~~4uc 4~ nU ~ 4Uc,. .

. >> . . . . > . * * * P62*9








with "specialized secondary"tekhnikum), osed a dilemma, ince theproportion f specializedsecondary ntrantswith a general econdarydiplomahas fluctuated vertime.'4 ince 1975marked watershed fterwhich such students onstitutedn increasingmajority,we coded thosespecialized econdary raduates orn n 1958or ater s having ompletedgeneral econdary, he rest s havingonly ower secondary.5

We defined ix cohorts, s shown n table 6, based on demographicand enrollmentrends eflectednfigure . The firstohort,which urned17yearsold between 1914and 1945, s nota cohort n any meaningfulsense, since it spans such a large number f years and was subject to

wildly varyingand contradictory olicies, demographic rends,andevents.There are too few cases, though, o divide it further, o it isincluded s a baseline.The second cohort born 1929-38) turned17 be-tween heend oftheWorldWar I and theonset fKhrushchev's eformsin 1956-a period markedby rebuilding nd, towardthe end, rapidexpansionofgeneral econdary chooloutstrippinghat ofVUZs. Thethird ohort born 1939-45)correspondso thedemographicwardent"(birthsbegan declining n 1939; see Gel'fand1992) and, roughly, heKhrushchev eform eriodwhenVUZ enrollments ere ncreasedrap-

idly and studentswere redirectedo vocationalrather han general ec-ondary ducation.The fourthohortborn1946-54)marks hefirst aveof thepostwar baby boom,the end of Khrushchev's eforms,nd the

14 It began n the 1950s t about5%; climbed harply oward heend of thedecade,barely reaking he 50% mark n 1958; then t abruptly ropped o about 25% in1963. n the mid-1970st climbed gain,passing 0% in 1975 and quickly eaching60%, above where t remained hroughhe end of the1980s TsSU 1977, p. 174;1981,p. 468; GKSPS 1989,p. 176).15 Ofcourse, hisproceduremplies hatwe underestimateheproportionf thosewithgeneral econdary ho werebornbefore 958andoverestimateheproportionof hosewith eneral econdary howere orn etween 958 nd1967.Consequently,some f he hangesnattainments-andnthe ffectshaping hem-in the ffectedcohortsthe woyoungest) aybe artifactual. owever,werewe to codespecializedsecondary raduates he amefor heentire ample, omeof the tabilitycross herelevant ohorts ould have been artifactual. e adoptedour procedure ince t islikely o produce ewermeasurementrrors.We are encouraged y thefact hat urcohort-specificeasurementsf heproportionfrespondentshocompleted eneralsecondarysee table 6 above) appear to correspond uite closely o thecalculated(from ig. ) cohort-specificverages f hepercentagef 17-year-oldsraduatingrom

general econdarynstitutions,speciallyor hefour oungestohorts.

1940-45 1946-55 1956-62 1963-71 1972-77 1978-84

Data set .................... .26 .34 .51 .54 .66 .79Official ................... .05 .15 .45 .52 .68 .84

630










a dummy ariablespecificationf main earner's ccupation itno betterthan ones withthe inear ocioeconomiccale (see theappendix). Fromthis evidencewe conclude that the departures rom inearity re notsignificant.

Table 6 shows that our sample captured ome long-termociodemo-graphic rends n Soviet society hathave been widely ommented ponas representingtsmodernizatione.g., Lewin 1988):structuralccupa-tional mobility epleted he ranksof agricultural orkers nd bolsteredthose of professionalsnd industrialworkers, espondents' nd parents'education increased monotonicallyver time, main earner's SEI in-

creased lmostmonotonically,nd urbanorigins ecamemore ommon,especially ollowinghewar.We givedetails of our variable selection nd specification rocedures

in appendix A. By way of summary,we note that, n additionto themaineffects f level, parents' ducation,main earner'soccupation,ur-ban origin, nd sex,we tested wo-waynteractionsnvolving 1) levelx cohort; 2) each originvariable and sex x level and x cohort; 3)parents' education x occupation;and (4) parents' education,mainearner's ccupation, nd urban originx sex. We also tested hree-way

interactionsnvolving a) parents' ducation,main earner'soccupation,urbanorigin, nd sex x level x cohort;b) parents' ducationx mainearner's ccupationx level;and (c) parents' ducationx sex x level-for totalof24effects, any fwhichwerenot ignificant. e smoothedthesignificantnteraction ffectsy recoding he evel and cohortvari-ables to linear pecifications.'8

RESULTS

ChangingTransitionRatesOur data on the cohort-specificuccess rates at each transitionfig. 3)reflect he trendsdisplayed n figure in a new light.Transition atesreveal queezes on institutionshat nrollmentigures y themselves an-

with reaterhangeneral econdaryducationincludingpecialized econdary,omecollege, r more). incedataon incomewerenot vailablefor espondents'arents,the class-specificEI values werecomputed sing nformationn the respondents'

earnings. he resultingEI rankingseflectheSoviet articularitiesnoccupationalprestige ankingsbserved y Treiman1977):manualwork s upgraded nd routineclericalwork downgraded, elative o the rankings f such occupationsn non-Communistountries.eeGradolph1993)for detailed iscussionfthis attern fearnings ifferencesmong ccupationalroupsnRussia.18 Universal ntryosecondarychool liminated ariancenthefirstransitionorthe ast three ohortst level 1, so we treat hefirst ransitions "missing"or helast three ohorts.

632







A. Incompleteecondary B. General econdary

100%- 100%-

90% 90% _

80% 80%-

70% 70%

60% 60%

50% 50%

40% 40%

30% - 30% -Pre- 1929- 1939- 1946- 1955- 1961- Pre- 1929- 1939- 1946- 1955- 1961-

1929 38 45 54 60 67 1929 38 45 54 60 67

Birth ohort Birth ohort

C. EnterVUZ D. VUZdegree

100% 100%

90% 90%

80% 80%

70% 70%

60% 60%

50% 50%

40% 40%

30% 30%Pre- 1929- 1939- 1946- 1955- 1961- Pre- 1929- 1939- 1946- 1955- 1961-

1929 38 45 54 60 67 1929 38 45 54 60 67


FIG. 3.-Observed transitionates by level of education,EuropeanRussia,1991.








not. When enrollmentigures isewe cannotbe surethat n individual'schancesfor dvancingfrom ne leveltothe nexthigherevel have goneup or thatthere re simplymorepeople "at risk"ofmovingup becauseofchanges t lower evels ofthe system.

The pressures n academicsecondaryndVUZs definitelyoseduringtheSovietperiod.Lowersecondaryducation osemeteoricallyromustoverhalf onearly niversal cross hefirst our ohorts.Universal owersecondarywas practically chieved by the time the 1946-54 cohortreached that evel in the early 1960s.The transition atefrom ower togeneral econdary ose moremodestly ntil fter herise ofincomplete

secondarywas over. The transition ate to general econdarydroppedfrom 0% to 45% for he1929-38 cohort ue to the abruptrise nlowersecondary ompletion,henrosemodestly o 55% for hesmall 1939-45cohort. t stalled t 55% for he1946-54cohort ue to thecombinationof Khrushchev's eforms nd saturation t the lower secondary evelforpostwar "booming" ohorts,19onlyto risedramatically orthetwoyoungest ohorts, eaching 0% bythe ate 1980s.

Highereducation nstitutionsould accommodatemodestly rowingenrollmentsut could notkeep up withtherapidlygrowing umbers f

studentswhowereeligibleforVUZ entry.As we saw infigure , VUZentrants xceededgeneral econdaryeavers n the immediate ostwaryearsbecause returningoldiers nrolled o resume heeducations hatmilitary ervice nterrupted. fter hatdisruption,VUZ entriesgrewslowlywhile thenumber fgeneral econdaryeaversexploded.Conse-quently, hegeneral econdary-to-VUZransition ate declined teadilyfrom oughly hree-fourthsf the 1929-38 cohort o barelyone-half fthe 1961-67 cohort.Decline on this scale is unprecedented.taly andIreland experienced squeeze on highereducation entry fter rapid

expansion fsecondaryducation Cobalti 1990;Shavit and Westerbeek1995; Raftery nd Hout 1993),butnothing n this cale-fewer cohortswereaffectednd thedeclinewas moremodest.

Information n VUZ dropoutrates is not generally vailable. Ac-cording o official riticismsheygrewas a resultof Khrushchev's e-forms,but hard data have been lacking.Our data show virtually ochange n the transition romVUZ entry o a VUZ degree.The VUZsuccessratedropsslightly orthethird ohort theywere in universityduringKrushchev's eforms)nd again in the asttwocohorts.The de-

19 The decline n general econdaryoverage ccasioned y Khrushchev'seformsaffected eopleborn n the1940s, .e., the atter alfof cohort and the firstewyears fcohort , so it snotvisiblenthe hart.We broke he ohorts herewedidso thatwecouldfocus nKrushchev'sffectsnVUZ entryforwhich ur 1939-45cohorts wellsituated).

634








clines n the cohorts orn ince 1955 are more ignificanthanthisfiguremakes them ppear because they re exclusively mong men.

Some of the changeover time s the consequence f previous hanges;that s, once educated, parentshave more resources nd higher spira-tions or heir hildren han heir arents ad for hem.Thisputsupwardpressure n educational nstitutions. ow much fthetrend owardmoreeducation n Russia was the second-generationonsequenceofthepre-ceding generation's dvance, which was reflected s higher riginsforour respondents rom ater cohorts?With the modeloftransition ates(described n the appendix)we can comparecohortswhile holdingori-

gin constant.Figure 4 shows each cohort's xpected ransition ates forurban-originmenand womenwhose mainearnerwas a skilledworkerandwhose parents ad complete econdary ducation. t also showseachcohort's veralltransition atesforcomparison.

The upgraded rigins f recent ohorts re sufficiento sustainuniver-sal incomplete econdary ducation.Even 50 years go, virtually o par-entswho themselves ad completed econdary chool would allow theirchildren o dropout before ompleting ome secondary ducation.

Social composition lso playsa role nsustaining igh evelsofgeneral

secondary ducation n recent ohorts.While general econdary duca-tion for the parents s "average" for recent ohorts, he early cohortswould have had higher atesof general econdary ducation ftheir ar-entshad thatmuch education.The improving ompositionmasks somepressuresfor reversal n Soviet policy toward secondaryeducation.Although he most recent ohorthas the highest econdary ompletionrates, the 1939-45 cohort tands significantlybove the adjacent ones.The first ohortto be in secondary chool afterWorld War II (born1929-38) actually chieved ess than the preceding ohort.The 1939-45

cohort-attending secondary chool in the late 1950s-achieved farmore. The Krushchevreforms armedthe 1946-54 cohort.For menwhoseparents chieved econdary ducation, here s no net rendntheirowntransitionates;women's hances mproved yalmost20percentagepoints.

The drop n the transitionohigher ducation s all themoreprecipi-tousfor hosefrom ducatedbackgrounds.Nearly ll oftheoffspringfpeoplewithgeneral econdaryducation ornbeforeWorldWar I couldexpect o enrollnVUZ; that xpectation ropped y40percentage ointsover the sixcohortswe considerabout50 years).

As noted above, the steady state n graduation atesforthose whoenterVUZ masksa drop nmen'sgraduation ates nrecent ohortsfig.4, part D). The changing ocial origins o not affect he trendbecauseorigins nlyweakly ffect arning degree nce the student as entereda VUZ.

635







A. Incompleteecondary B. Generalecondary100% - Men 100%

wn

90% 90% Women

80% 80% M

70% 70% /--

60% 60%

50% 50% all)

40% 40%

30% I l 30% I I I i I IPre- 1929- 1939- 1946- 1955- 1961- Pre- 1929- 1939- 1946- 1955- 1961-1929 38 45 54 60 67 1929 38 45 54 60 67

Birth ohort Birthohort

C. Enter UZ D. VUZdegree

100% 100% W

90% 90% T

80% 80%

70% 70%~Men

(all) Men60% 60%

mmen

50% 50%

40% 40%

30% I I I i 30% I l l l lPre- 1929- 1939- 1946- 1955- 1961- Pre- 1929- 1939- 1946- 1955- 1961-1929 38 45 54 60 67 1929 38 45 54 60 67


FIG. 4.-Expected transitionatesby evelofeducation ndgender, uropeanRussia, 1991 mainearner s a skilledworker, EI = 36, and bothparentshavegeneral econdary,um = 6).








ChangingEducational Stratification

Social origins nd gender ignificantlyffect hechances ofeducationalsuccess at each transition or ach cohort see table7).2?The pattern feffectss complicated,with effects aryingn magnitude cross transi-tions nd cohorts.The constants apture he combined ffectsf cohortsize and institutional hange. Parents' education nteractswith mainearner's ccupation nd sex although hese nteractionsre the same forall cohorts nd transitions). his meansthat heeffectsf parents' duca-tion are greater or high status families nd that the effect f class isgreater orfamiliesnwhich he parentshave academic educations.The

return o each unit of parents' ducation s in all cases .07 higherforwomenthan formen.Geographical rigins tronglyffected ntryosecondary ducation n

the first hree ohortsurbanoriginswere advantageous).Urban origins'ability o aid the completion f general econdary choolwas statisticallysignificantut modest,exceptfor ts strong ffect n the 1939-45 co-hort.2' he urban-rural ap at VUZ entry as appreciable or ll cohorts.This cross-levelpattern suggests that performance-basedelection-clearly mbodied n the VUZ entrance xam-was morefavorableto

urbanyouths han werethepureself-selection echanismsaspirations,analysisof chances, etc.) operative t the general secondary evel. Itsupports heargumenthatthedisadvantage f ruralyouthswas rootedinthe nferioruality fprimary nd secondary raining utside hecities

20 The coefficientsn table7 show he ffectsf ocial rigin nd gendernthe hancesof ducational uccess t each transitionor ach cohort ndserve s thebasis for heremainingnalyses n this rticle. hecoefficientsere alculated rom urpreferred

statistical odel,whichwe describenthe ppendix.nour nitialmodels hefluctua-tionsof coefficientscross cohorts nd transitions ereconsiderable.n order oproduce esultswe could nterpret, e constrained anyof the nteractionso belinear unctionsf ohort nd/orevel seethe ppendix elow).The inear onstraintsdampened ome,but not all, of the argefluctuations,nd eliminated hosewhichwere notstatisticallyignificant.t is importanto note thattheamplitude f thefluctuationshatremain s less than hat f thecorrespondingnconstrainedoeffi-cients. o takeoneexample, reeingachcohort-specificffectfgender ncomple-tion of a VUZ degreeproduces hefollowingix coefficientsin order f cohort):-1.79, -0.63, 3.94, -1.04, 0.26, and 1.05. These comparewith -0.81, -0.81,1.44, -0.81, 0.32, and 1.44, ccordingo thepreferred odel. reeing his articularconstraintesultedna likelihood atio f 40

(5 df).Similar

xperimentsithome

of the other ighly onstrainedesultsikewise onfirmedhat a) lack offit nd (b)odd patternsike this re bothfeatures f thedata,not artifactsntroduced yourprocedures.21 The sharp nd brief ise n theurban rigin ffectn general econdaryompletionfor he 1929-45 cohort s consistent ith heobservationfmany e.g., MedvedevandMedvedev1978) hatKhrushchev'solicies enerally rought reat armnthecountryside.

637







r-.. oo Ce Ce) , ON

I.~~~~~~ ~~~~00eie q t 00

. . . . : . . X . . . .

I 00Ct) lo. . . . . . . I

z =

. .

o iz I ON I-- t- 0 00 e t 00

?~~~~~~~'Ch0 ce) C1 0 0 00 CO

0 x0 00 C 0eF- ~ ~~~C, OI -I t-I

Hz ::::. :::

V . .

tH0 . . * . * . . . -

o

O 71X'.X

40 Z .'~~~~~0o C-)C, ' ''O '"1 00 *'

E 0<: l E @ = w =*g D C

638







00C xD ON ON00 0 0o 0

I I I I I

*~~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~-

0

0

0

OC) e) 'IC -I -I - O

OC)D- 'I 0 -- t ON OC)O

oC) ce o 0 0 OC 0 ooN

e l l lON N C

Q Cd C

xx~ ~~~

0d c o bCo oIo o

. .e . . . . . -. . .3 9

> ~ ~~~~~,

IL. ~ ~:C d0N ~ dCac'!~ ~ ~ ~4a 4 4a. . . . . . .>

. - . . . . . .39








(Zaslavsky 1982). Amonguniversitytudents,hoseof ruraloriginswereslightlymore ikelyto graduate.To overcome heirdisadvantageandgain entry o a VUZ, ruralyouthswouldhave had to display xceptionaldrive and ability,which would serve them well once they got to theuniversitysee Mare [1980, 1993]for moregeneral orm fthis unob-servable heterogeneity"rgument).

Women's educationaldisadvantage-more pronounced n less edu-cated families forigin22 was wiped out during heSovietperiod. nthisregard,Russia is consistent ith ll 13 cases examined nBlossfeldand Shavit 1993).

Due to the nteraction etweenparents' ducation nd class we con-sider them togethertable 8). The spreadbetweenthemostand leastfavorableparents' ducation nd class (usinghigh nd low extreme al-ues for ach variable)gives n indication ftheoverall ombined ffectfthetwovariablesfor given ransitionndcohort.Research n changingeducational tratificationnother ountrieseadsus toexpect ittle aria-tion mongcohorts nd weaker ffectst higherevelsoftheeducationalsystemBlossfeld nd Shavit1993).23With omenotable xceptions, us-sia conformso thegeneral attern stablished lsewhere. he combined

effects greatestt thefirstransition,qual for hetwosubsequent nes,and lowestforthefinalone. There are important xceptions ccurringin the pre-1929 nd 1939-45 cohorts.For the oldestcohort, he spreadis greatest t VUZ entry-reflectinghehighmagnitudesfboth hemaineducation nd class effects-butopposite n sign.The VUZ recruitmentpolicies n effect t varioustimesduring he1920sand 1930sapparentlywere effectivend reversed dvantageto lower class groups.24 or the1939-45 cohort, he ducation ffect ropped s thefirst ransition earedsaturation. tVUZ entry, heightenedlasseffecthis imefavors hose

withhigher rigins,ndicatinghatKhrushchev'sgalitarian eforms otonlyfailed,but had theoppositeresult o thatwhich was intended.Asforthe finaltransition,we have no readyexplanationforthe rather

22 For parents' ducation 8 (both arents ave some ollege), dd .56 to thegendereffect. or parents' ducation 6 (bothhave high chooldegrees), dd .42 to thegender ffect,tc.23 As Mare 1993)has recentlyhown, here re a number fpossiblewaysunobserved

determinantsf ducationaluccessmightnfluence easured rigin ffectst a giventransition. nfortunately,urdata do notcontain he nformationn siblings eces-sary o correct or his nthemanner esuggests.24 Recall that heoldest ohort pans30 years ffluctuatingnd occasionallyontra-dictoryducation olicies. henegative ign f he lass ffect, hichmust e viewedinconjunction ith he nteractionetween arental ducation nd class,testifiesothe ffectivenessfthose olicies, owever hort-lived,hichweredesigned o favorworking-classtudents,specially t theVUZ entryevel.

640







TABLE 8

COMBINED EFFECTS OF PARENTS' EDUCATION AND MAIN EARNER'S OCCUPATION ON

EDUCATIONAL SUCCESS BY LEVEL OF EDUCATION AND COHORT: MEN,

EUROPEAN RUSSIA, 1991

COHORT

Pre-1929 1929-38 1939-45 1946-54 1955-60 1961-67

Incomplete econdary:Class I,

education 8 ....... 6.79 6.79 6.22 ... ... .

Class I,

education 2 ....... 1.68 1.68 5.13 ... ... ...Class VIIb,

education 8 ....... 5.86 5.86 1.57 ... ... .

Class VIIb,education 2 ....... 1.46 1.46 1.19 ... ...

Spread ................ 5.33 5.33 5.03 . . . . . . ..General econdary:

Class I,education8 ....... 1.83 1.83 1.83 1.83 1.83 1.83

Class I,education ....... .44 .44 .44 .44 .44 .44

Class VIIb,education8 ....... .90 .90 .90 .90 .90 .90

Class VIIb,education2 ....... .22 .22 .22 .22 .22 .22

Spread ............... 1.61 1.61 1.61 1.61 1.61 1.61Enter VUZ:

Class I,education8 ....... 5.61 1.83 4.20 1.83 1.83 1.83

Class I,education2 ....... -.40 .44 2.82 .44 .44 .44

Class VIIb,education8 ....... 6.54 .90 1.43 .90 .90 .90Class VIIb,

education2 ....... 1.23 .22 .75 .22 .22 .22Spread ............... 6.93 1.61 3.45 1.61 1.61 1.61

VUZdegree:Class I,

education8 ....... .23 .77 -.38 -.91 .23 1.38Class I,

education2 ....... .11 -.62 - 1.76 -1.04 .11 1.25Class VIIb,

education8 ....... -.76 .67 .41 -1.01 -.76 -.50Class VIIb,

education2 ....... -.18 -.01 -.27 -.43 -.18 .08Spread ................ .99 1.39 2.18 .60 .99 1.88

NOTE.-"Spread" rowgivesmaximum ifferencen combined ffectmagnitude orrelevant ohort.








dramatic ntercohortluctuations,s they nclude everal hanges nsignforeach effect. he high negativemagnitude fthe class effect orthewar cohortdoes suggest hatKhrushchev's eforms ad the effect fincreasing he dropout ate amongVUZ students f higher rigins, ndthe subsequent eversal asts doubton the effectivenessf the "prepara-tory epartments"t increasinghe retention fworker-originUZ stu-dents.

EvaluatingMMI

The MMI hypothesis redicts hatrapidrises n educational uccessatone levelwill-if they ead to saturation fupper-class emand-resultin a decrease n educational tratificationt that evel and an increasein educational tratificationt thenext evel, unlessthey re offset ycorrespondingncreases.At the owersecondary evel,middle-class e-mand is already practically aturated mongtheurbanpopulationforthe oldest cohort fig.4 above), so thegains n overall transitionateatthis evel led to pronounced estratificationcrossthe firsthree ohorts

(results ot shown), s lessprivileged roupsgainedfrom heexpansionofcoverage.As notedabove, theoverallgeneral econdary ompletionrate actuallydeclinedfor he 1929-38 cohort nd, to a lesser xtent, he1946-54 cohort, argely s a result f this expansion.Also, theoverallVUZ entry atefalls cross hefour oungestohorts.AccordingoMMI,dropsin theconditional ransitionates at bothof these evels shouldlead to increased stratification. hough general secondaryeducationcoverage grows rapidlyfor the 1939-45 groupand the two youngestcohorts, pper-class emandneverreachesfull aturation: heexpected

completion ate formen with the highestmain earner'sSEI (71) andparents'education 10) values peaks at 95% forthe 1939-45 cohort,drops o88% for he ubsequent 946-54 cohort, hen isesmonotonicallyto reach 94% in the youngest 1961-67) cohort.Thus, according o thestrong ersion fMMI, we expectno change nthe amount fstratifica-tionat the general econdary evel, rapid growthnotwithstanding.oevaluatethesepredictions, e examine hanges n theeffects fparents'education ndmainearner's ccupation n success t thegeneral econd-ary and VUZ entryevels. In thefollowing igureswe use probabilitiesexpectedunder the model n table 7 rather hanobservedprobabilities(someofwhichwould be based on veryfew cases-N = 0, 1, or 2 insome combinations fparental ducation nd cohort).

AmongurbanRussians,there s some evidence hat ncreased tratifi-cationdidmaterializet thegeneral econdaryevel for he1929-38and1946-54 cohortsfig.5). The slopesofthese inesare steeper han those

642







A. Women B. Women100% 100%

90% __90%

1961-67-7 /

80% - 80%1955-60 1961-67

70% 193945 70%D/60%- Pre-192 9 60% 1955-60

1946-54 1939-45

50% - 1929-38 50%

Pre-192940% - 40% --1946-54

1929-3830%- i l 30% i l l l

0 20 40 60 80 0 2 4 6 8 10

Main arner'sEI Parents'ducationssum)

C.Men D. Men

100% 100%

90%90%

80%

80% 1939-45 193945

1961-67 ~~~~~~70%961-67961-6

60%- Pre-192970% Pre-1929 1955-60

1955-60 50% - 1929-381946-5460% - 1929-3 8 40%

1946-54

50% 30%

20%40%

10%

30%- 0%-0 20 40 60 80 0 2 4 6 8 10


FIG. 5.-Expected probabilityf completing eneral econdary y social ori-gin, cohort, nd gender,EuropeanRussia, 1991. For A and C, both parents,general econdaryducation sum= 6); forB and D, mainearner, killedworker(SEI = 36).









A. B.

100% 100%

90% 90%-

80% /80% -

~~- _0 ,' En ment

70% 70% + S rOobserved)

60% + 60%

50% __ Urbanmen 50%

Urbanwomen40% -- - Ruralmen 40%

--Rural women

30% 30%

20% - i l l 1 20% - l l lPre- 1929- 1939- 1946- 1955- 1961- Pre- 1929- 1939- 1946- 1955- 1961-

1929 38 45 54 60 67 1929 38 45 54 60 67


C. D.

100% 100%-

90% 90%

80% -, 80%

70% - %70%

60% 00% 60%-/1

50% 50%

40% 40% - /

30% 30%

20% - l l l t 20%- l lPre- 1929- 1939- 1946- 1955- 1961- Pre- 1929- 1939- 1946- 1955- 1961-

1929 38 45 54 60 67 1929 38 45 54 60 67


FIG. 6.-Ratios ofexpected omplete eneral econdary ates by gender ndgeographic rigin, uropeanRussia, 1991 mainearner's lass and parents' du-cationcontrolled; aseline s main earners'SEI = 71). For A, class I (SEI =71); general ducation sum = 6); forB, class IIa (SEI = 56), general ducation(sum = 6); forC, class VIIa (SEI = 29), general ducation sum = 6); forD,classVIIa (SEI = 29), primaryducation sum = 2).







A. Women B.Women

100% 0- l0%-Pre-1929

90%-- 90% ~~~~~~~~~~~~Pre-1929

80% t1929-38 80%

70% 1946-54 70%1929-38

60 -1955-6060 -I

1946-541939-45

50% -19616 50% 1939-451-67 ~~~~~~~~~~1955-60

40%- 40%

1961-6730%- i 30% l l l l

0 20 40 60 80 0 2 4 6 8 10Main arner'sEI Parents'ducationssum)

C.Men D.Men100% 100%

Pre-1929

90% 1929-38 90% -31929-38

80% 80% --193945193945

70% 70% Pre- 921946-6

60% 60%--194-60O

1961-67

50% 50%-/

1961-67

40% 40% -

30% - l 30% l0 20 40 60 80 0 2 4 6 8 10


FIG. 7.-Expected probabilityfentering UZ bysocial origin, ohort, ndgender,EuropeanRussia, 1991. For A and C, bothparents,general econdaryeducation sum = 6); forB and D, mainearner, killedworkerSEI = 36).








probabilities fVUZ entrynthe threeyoungest omparedwith he twooldest cohorts ncrease because the constantsdecrease. Thus the un-changing ffect f class has a larger mpacton the probabilityfVUZentry.26his is our evidence hat the failure f the universityystem okeep up with growing umbers f persons ligible o enter oweredtheprobability f entry o thepointwhere ven thehighest ducational ate-gories ell hort f100% entry. he effectfparents' ducation s byfarthe greatestnthe pre-1929 ohort fig.7, partsB andD). The profoundcurvein the line for thepre-1929 ohort s attributable o the ceilingeffectuilt nto he ogistic egression odel.27For women heprobability

ofVUZ entrys distributed ver a wider

rangen the ast two cohorts

than ntheother ost-1929 ohorts; mongmen t s the astthree ohortsthathave a widerrange fexpected robabilities. he underlyingaram-eterdid not change, but the ogjam n higher ducationreducedevery-one's chancesenoughthat even thepeople in thosecohortsfromhigheducationalbackgrounds o notapproach 100% enrollment.

The ratio ijk3 ofeach social origin ombination's robabilityfVUZentry o that of the comparisongroup declinesover time forall butthe owesteducational ategory fig.8). This is our clearest videnceof

increased tratification.fstratificationerenot ncreasingt theuniver-sity evel,Rijk3 wouldshowno nettrend.The fact hat t declinesmeansthateach class's chancesof VUZ entry-relative o the chances of thetop class-fall over time.

The increased tratificationt theuniversityevel canceled he galitar-ian effects f increased ccess to general econdary ducation. This ismost learly een nthecumulative robabilityfattaining VUZ degreefor each social origin nd gender fig. 9). We multiplied he expectedprobability f each transitiono obtain n expected umulative robabil-

ityof a degree.The key cohorts re highlighted ithdarker,wider inesinfigure . PartsA and C show a slightly igher ffect f main earner'soccupation among womenand men born 1939-45 and 1961-67 andamongmen born 1955-60. PartsB and D show thatonlythe oldestcohort xperienced ubstantially harper tratificationy parents'edu-cation.

Figure 9 is usefulfor descriptive urposes,too. It shows that evenmiddle-class oung eoples'prospectsfearning universityegreedete-riorated hroughouthe Sovietperiod.Young people fromworking-class

and peasant originswhoseparentshad academic educations lso experi-

26 This is an intrinsiceature fthe ogistic egression odel,which mplies hatdp/dX = Pi3P(l - p).27 Whenp = .5, dp/dX = -ixp( -p) is greater hanwhenp = .8 by a factorof25/16 more han 50%increasendpldX).

647







A. B.

100% 100%

90% ] 90% i

80% %80%

70% 70%0o

60% 60%

50% 50%

---Urban men40% - Urbanwomen 40%

--- Ruralmen

30% --Rural women 30%

20% - 120% - I

Pre- 1929- 1939- 1946- 1955- 1961- Pre- 1929- 1939- 1946- 1955- 1961-1929 38 45 54 60 67 1929 38 45 54 60 67

Birthohort Birthohort

C. D.

100% 100%

90% 90%

80% 80%

70% 70%

60% 38 4 60%

50%/ 50% -

40% 40% / \ / \

30% 30%

20% - I I 20% -

Pre- 1929- 1939- 1946- 1955- 1961- Pre- 1929- 1939- 1946- 1955- 1961-1929 38 45 54 60 67 1929 38 45 54 60 67

Birth ohort Birthohort

FIG. 8.-Ratios ofexpectedVUZ entry atesby gender nd geographicrigin,EuropeanRussia, 1991 (mainearner's lass and parents' ducationcontrolled;baseline s mainearners' EI = 71; parents' ducation um = 10). ForA, classI (SEI = 71), general ducation sum= 6); forB, classIIIa (SEI = 56), generaleducation sum = 6); forC, classVIJa SEI = 29), general ducation sum =

6); forD, class VIIa (SEI = 29), primaryducation sum= 2).

648







A. Women B.Women

80% 80%-193945

19394570% 70%

1961-67

60% _//- 1961-67 60%

50% Pre-1929 50%

40% - 1955-60 40%1946-541929-38

30% 30% - 1955

20% 20% 1946-54

1929-

10% 10% Pre-1929

0% I I I 0% - I I I I

0 20 40 60 80 0 2 4 6 8 10


C.Men D.Men

80% - 80%-- 193945193945

70% = 70%

60% --Pre-1929 160 60%

50% 1929-38 1-67 50% 1955-60

40% 40% 1961-671946-54

1929-830% 30% -1

1946-Pre-I

20% 20%

10% 10%

0% - I I I I 0% - I I I I I

0 20 40 60 80 0 2 4 6 8 10Main arner'sEI Parents'ducationssum)

FIG. 9.-Expected cumulative robabilityf a VUZ degreebysocial origin,cohort, nd gender, uropeanRussia, 1991. ForA and C, bothparents, eneralsecondaryducation sum = 6); forB and D, main earner, killedworker SEI= 36).

649








enced a steadydeteriorationf theirprospects orearning universitydegree. The most disadvantagedyoung people-those whose parentswereworking lass and had achieved ess thansecondary ducation-saw an initialrise n theirprospects uring he earlypart of the Sovietperiod,buttheyfell s did everyone lse's after he1960s.

CONCLUSIONSOur 1991national urvey f socialstructurend consciousnessnRussiareveals substantial nequality f educational ttainmentshroughouthe

Soviet period.Parents'education,main earner'soccupation, nd geo-graphical rigin emained nstrumentalo these nequalities.Genderdif-ferences-initially avorable o men-were removedduring heSovietperiod, nd for ometransitions erereversed.

Secondary ducationgrewrapidly nRussia throughouthiscentury,much s it has done nother ndustrialized ations.Russianhigher duca-tion, though,failed to keep pace withthe rapid growth f secondaryeducation.This disparityed to an enrollmentqueeze at theuniversitylevel. Far more tudentswere prepared oruniversityducation hanthe

higher ducational ystem VUZ) couldaccommodate.The resultwas adramatic all n theproportionfsecondarychoolgraduateswho wenton tohigher ducationbetween1962and 1980. n the cohorts orn fter1945,all social origin roups xperienced eclining rospects ormakingthetransition rom cademicsecondaryouniversityducation.Formenof any social origin, hishelped producea dropin the overallodds ofattaining VUZ degree crossthethree ostwar ohorts,whilethegainsbywomenrelative o men teacheducational ransitionffsethe mpactofthebottleneckt VUZ entry.As a resultwomen'sodds ofattaining

VUZ degreeoverthis ameperiodneither oseorfell.The rapid expansion of general secondary ducation ed to greater

equality f educational pportunity. lthoughll origin roupsbenefitedto someextent,Russiansfromworker rpeasant originswhose parentshad minimaleducation gained themostfrom he expansion. The re-sulting ottleneckt theVUZ entry ointhurt hese amedisadvantagedgroups more than the rest, however, o the effect f social origins nthe conditionalprobabilities f makingthis crucialtransitionctuallyincreased uring he aterdecades ofthe Sovietperiod.The overall ffect

ofmore equalityof opportunityt the secondaryevel and less at theuniversityevel was littlenetchange cross thethreepostwar ohortsnthesocial-origin-basedifferencesn the ikelihood fattaining VUZdegree. Whilethisfindingendssupport o scholarswho claim that theSoviet class structurerystallized uring he1970s nd 1980s e.g., Lapi-dus 1983),the mageofcrystallizationailsto capture he related rend

650










attainment t a given educational evel is inversely ssociated with thegrowth or decline) of enrollments elative to the eligiblepopulation

size-receives strong upport rom ur results. ncreasing ransitionatesat one level might roducegreaterquality t that evel but will producegreater nequality t a subsequentevel unless he pressure s relievedbyproportionatexpansionthere s well. This occurred wice during heSovietperiod.First, sudden xpansion f ower econdaryducation orthe 1929-38 cohort rought bouta drop ntheconditional robability fcompleting eneral econdary ducation, o the detriment f the ower-origingroups.Then the postwar xpansion fgeneral econdary chool

created n enrollmentqueezeat the VUZ

level whichagain dispropor-tionately urt he chances of ower-originlasses.The irony f nequality nducedby the pressures f expansion t lower

levels in Russian education s that t occurreddespite an intention oreduce nequalities. he Soviets aw centralizations a collective ontrolmechanism hat would efficientlyllocate human capital and simulta-neously ounteract he tendency findividual hoicesto perpetuaten-equalities across generations.We cannot evaluate theirallocation ofhuman capital. Our assessment f the intergenerationalersistence f

educational nequality howsthat,despite omeearly uccesses nreduc-ing the mportance f social origins or ducational chievement, duca-tionalstratification as greater t theend of theSoviet periodthan atthebeginning. he various reformffortsndertaken uring he Sovietperiodnotonlyfailedto counteracthestratifyingressures reatedbyindividual ifferencesnresources ut also produced tratifyingressuresof tsown. By reformingnlypartsofthe system t a time startingtthe lowest evels),educationalpolicymakers ut pressure n the levelsabove. The planners ouldnotanticipate hatopening ccess at one evel

would increase tratificationt the next evel,but thatoutcome s nowclear.

APPENDIX

Constructinginear CohortContrasts

We employ he sameapproachas thatusedby Rafterynd Hout (1993)and Hout, Raftery,nd Bell (1993), analyzing hesampleoftransitions,

not of individuals.We pooled data forthe four ransitionsat each ofwhichthe neligible opulation s censored) nd thedependent ariableis a dummy ariable, uccess,which quals oneifthe transitions madeand zeroif t is not.

To arrive t a preferred odel,we followed setmodeling rocedure(table Al). The first tep (A) was to settleupon a specificationf the

652








main earner's lass variableand the main effectso be tested.We deter-mined that the scalar specification f the main earningparent's classbased on the calculatedSEI scoreswas preferable o a dummy-variablespecificationmodels 1 and 2). The scalar specification ses six fewerdegrees ffreedom t thecostofonly11chi-square oints, nd isprefera-ble from modelingtandpoint ince t makes t easierto testfor nterac-tions.We also determinedhatvariablesforfamily ntactnessnd farm-worker tatusdidnot mprove it nd were not significant,o theywerediscardedfor he remainderf the analysis models3 and 4).

The next tep B) involved ntering ummy-variablepecificationsf

theall the two-way nteractionsnvolving evel. Cohortx level nterac-tionswere ncluded s 20 dummies orrespondingofive fthesixcohortcategories or ach evel.This specificationastheconsequence ffreeingthe constants t each cohort-level ombination.A priori onstraints ntheconstants an lead tobiased estimates fother ffects; ith his peci-ficationwe avoid thatdanger.The interactions f level withparents'education,parent's lass, urbanorigin, nd gender female) re enteredas dummies o establishevel-specificalues for achofthesebackgroundeffects, hichwillserve s baselines nthe searchfor evel-specificnter-

actionsbetween ohort ndtheeffecti.e., level x cohortx backgroundeffectnteractions).n stepC we enter hetwo-waynteractionsmongbackground ariables model 5), remove henonsignificantnes (model6), and determinehat no interactionsetween hesesignificantffectsand level are significantnot shown).

We then identifyhree-waynteractions etween each backgroundvariable, evel, and cohort, nd we constrain hose that are significanttobe level-specificrdinalrecodings f the cohort ariable;theserecod-ings serve as multipliers fthe main effect f the background ariable

at the relevant evel. We proceed ne levelat a time stepsD-G), identi-fying henconstraininghese nteractionsn the three tages llustratedfor tepD (thetwo latter tagesare collapsed ntoone for tepsE-G).First, dummy-variablepecificationsf the evel x cohort nteractionsat a given evel are multiplied yeach of the fourbackground ariables(model8). This uses4(Ck 1) degrees ffreedom, hereCk sthenumberof cohortsfor whichparameters re estimated t level k (three n thecase of level 1, otherwise ix). In a substep,we adjusted the dummyspecificationsothatwithin achrespectiveetof nteractionsheomittedcategorys either he highest r lowest. This allows us to evaluate thestatistical ignificancef the nteraction-ifnoneofthe"dummynterac-tion"termsdifferignificantlyrom he (level-specific)aselinemagni-tudeoftheeffect,here s no significanthange n theeffect crossco-horts. n the next tage,we remove nsignificantnteractionsmodel9).

This leaves a seriesofdummynteractionerms, ome orall of which

653







4e

Cd r.E

t e NN t O N t~~"d0 0 o 00-4 -o- 00 00 00 t- t- 00 w ot-

;Z Cd 00 ON ON OeN ON iniU Y

CS -o -o -o ooCsCs o o o w

P;crtt

OV t t t t~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Lfi~~~~- 75:......:: :

6W 1 2C

454







t mP O_ V) X VdS~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~d

ll~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~'cd0 Z

< t < 11 <<, ,,, t = f%~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~C

7 N t ? 2 . . i . s < _ _ , f~Voo N o e s r o >r~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~b

bD ~ ~ ~ ~ ~~0o00o 'D*^ -

t t t t t t t o~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ V'

Cd Q Q=

00~~~~ ~ ~~~~~~~~~~~r) ir too-.

.' 2 * r , .~~~~~~~~~~~~ro 1

"' t Yz

as

lL t as l, | Ls, | Ls Ls ; 11 . = t

5 n t = wo= = ??W fi~~~~~~~~~~~b

vO t i O

.=CLd6

'

655~~~~~~~~~~~~C 4








TABLE A2

LOGISTIC REGRESSION COEFFICIENTS, PREFERRED MODEL

Variable* b SE P

Level (1 = 1) (3 = 2) (4 = 3) (2 = 4) .......... ........... 1.082 .129 .000Level 1 x cohort 1) (2) (3) ................................... .955 .147 .000Level 2 x cohort 6) (1, 3, 5) (2, 4) ............ ............. -.367 .076 .000Level 3 x cohort 6) (1, 3, 4, 5) (2 = 5) ......... ......... .561 .066 .000Level 4 x cohort 6) (5) (1, 2, 3) (4) ............ ............ 1.093 .130 .000Parents' ducation sum) ....................................... .697 .126 .000Parents'SEI ....................... .................... .099 .018 .000

Urban 16 ................. .......................... 1.220 .257 .000Woman .............. ............................. -2.711 .433 .000Parents' EI x parents' ducation ............ ............. .002 .001 .014Parents' ducationX woman .................. .............. .069 .035 .052Parents' ducationX level 2, 3, 4 = 1) ......... ......... - .614 .117 .000Parent's EI x level 1, 2) (4) (3) .............. ............. -.033 .006 .000Urban 16 x level 1) (3) (2) (4) .................. ............. -.329 .096 .001Womanby evel 3, 4) (2) (1) ................................. .776 .168 .000Parents' ducationx cohort3 = 1) forLl ........ ...... -.663 .194 .001Parents'SEI x cohort3 = 1) for l .......... ........... .067 .024 .005Urban16 x cohort3 = 1) for 2 ............. ............. .627 .325 .054Woman x cohort1-3) (4) (5) (6) for 2 ......... ......... .346 .062 .000Parents' ducationx cohort1 = 1) for 3 ........ ...... .770 .144 .000Parents' EI x cohort 3) (2, 4, 5, 6) (1) for 3 ......... -.033 .006 .000Woman x cohort2, 3) (1) (6, 5) (4) forL3 ........ ....... .431 .085 .000Parents' ducationX cohort 1, 4-6 = 1) for 4 ....... - .212 .042 .000Parents'SEI x cohort6) (1, 5) (2, 4) (3) for 4 ........ -.016 .003 .000Woman x cohort1, 2, 4) (5) (3, 6) for 4 ........ ....... 1.126 .173 .000Constant ............... ........................... -3.772 .432 .000

NOTE -X2(-2 LL) = 4,747; df = 4,595.*Recodingsf evel nd ohortornteractionermsrepresentedn bbreviatedashion:orrecod-

ings ndummyorme.g., parents'ducation level) riginalalues et equal to"1"aregiven nparentheses,emainingalues re et t zero. orrecodingsnordinal orme.g.,parent'sEI x level)initial ategories ecodedwith he same value are regroupedwithin arentheses, hich re arranged nascending rder f thenewvalues, beginning ith 1." See tableAl and appendix extformoredetail.

maybe significantlyifferentrom he maximum r minimum aselineeffect. utthis pecificationf hree-waynteractionss notparsimoniousand leaves no way of ascertaining he significance f the differencesamongnonbaseline ategorieswithout series of two-wayt-tests hatgreatly omplicate heanalysis.To correct heseflaws,we undertookthird tage,wherewe respecifiedach significantevel x cohort nterac-tion as a single,ordinal sometimes ummy)multiplier fthe relevantbackground ffectmodel 10). These "linearized" nteraction erms relevel-specificecodings fthe ordinalcohortvariablebased on the ob-servedpattern mongthedummynteraction erms.The recodings re

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Educational Stratification in Russia During the Soviet Period