Egypt Economic Quarterly Review - Volume 3 - April 2013

8/12/2019 Egypt Economic Quarterly Review - Volume 3 - April 2013

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/egypt-economic-quarterly-review-volume-3-april-2013 1/23 A F R I C A N D E V E L O P M E N T B A N K G R O U P

Overview

I K #GK 2011 H-

>G, EKP ? HK -

? >I > . A

I CG I I>K H

?-D? 2012, G-

>?K H I

22 A> >K >

K K A?H CG G>.

>> GK

I GK G -

= D I, EKP

> J> . G-

K >=>K G ,

GI > G ?K K,

>K G

$ 4.8 >> -BK A-

? I > K

FG.

This report is the third of a series

of Economic Quarterly Reviews

on Egypt by the African

Development Bank’s Country

Office in Egypt. It covers Egypt’s

economic performance up to March

2013, based on data, which was available at the time of its

publication. The report comprises

of the following sections:

Economic Growth p. 2

Employment

and Unemployment p. 4

Monetary Sector p. 5

Financial Sector p. 8

Public Finances p. 9

External Sector p. 11Domestic Resource

Mobilization p. 12

Public Debt p. 13

Charts (Annex I) p. 15

Development and

Macroeconomic Indicators

(Annex II, Tables) p. 19

Detailed Macroeconomic Data

(Annex II, Tables) p. 20

Sibry TAPSOBA

Resident [email protected].: +202 22 563 790 / 1Ext.: 6730

Charles MUTHUTHI

Chief Country [email protected].: +202 22 563 790 / 1Ext.: 6748

www.afdb.org

);89 3 G A<>58 2013

1 E9KBP 85> K7 @ 1 #G>K @6 5@5>G67 @ 30 #G@7. 7 8G G7 ?=@9 7

5G@KP 85> K7 7: #G>K-+7B7?7 (1); '57-D757?7 (2); #@GK-%5 (3); @6 AB>-#G@7 (4).

Key Highlights

Real Growth Domestic Product (GDP) )#" "+ 2.2% '+ Q2, 2012/13

a# '('+ 5% '+ Q3, 2011/121.

Unemployment Rate !)'*#" 13% "'+ a# 4, 2012 !*a#"

12.4% '+ &# a*# a# '+ 2011.

Annual Inflation (Urban Consumer Price Index) a!!#)#a#" '+ 2013, * 6.3%

'+ Ja+a 8.7% '+ F#a, #!a# &'&# '!# '*.

On Monetary Policy , &# C#+a) Ba+(, '+ Ma!& 2012, a'#" &# "'!+ a#

75 a' '+ 10.25% !+) *+'+ '+)a'+a ##.

Exchange Rate "##!'a#" 16% #a!& EGP6.7 # US "))a a #+"-F#-

a 2013, * 5.8 '+ Ja+a 2011.

Net International Reserves "#!)'+#" * US$ 35 '))'+ '+ Ja+a 2011 US$

13.4 '))'+ #+"-Ma!& 2013, ')) '# '+ A') #!a# US$ 5 '))'+ a'"

a+#" Qaa a+" L'a.

Balance of Payments &a" a+ #a)) "#'!' US$ 0.55 '))'+ #+"-D#!#*-

# 2013 #" Qaa '+a+!'a) a'a+!#.

Budget deficit #a!&#" 11.4% GDP '+ J+# 2012 a+" ' ##!#" '# -&# 12% GDP J+# 2013 a #* #" &# IMF a# "#)a#".

Domestic Public Debt )'&) "#!#a#" 72.8% GDP #+"-D#!#*#

2012, !*a#" 80.3% GDP #+"-J+# 2012, ' a &'&# &a+ -

#+*#+ + a# 60% 2015.

External Debt #*a'+ a a *a+a#a)# )##) 13.8% GDP US$ 38.8 ')-

)'+ #+"-D#!#*# 2012.

7B I B7B76 K C>7 %GG (C78 CG@K E5@?, EF') I @BG K 7@!@ (+5> A@, EF') G@67 7 GB7H@ 8 +K B (*767@ *7B77@H7,EF')


http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/egypt-economic-quarterly-review-volume-3-april-2013 2/23

Economic Growth

E<@? > >?? ?@ <>@

(GD) @>@ ?>< 1

2012/13 ? >, @ 2.6%, >--

> (/), @> ?< 5%

3 2011/12. ?> D I

EK G (E) 445.8 >> ()

1 2012/13, E 402.1

1 2011/12, G K H

G?. A>G

<K HK ? I=

G,

I -3.8% 3 2011,

#GK 2011 H>G.

F> >@ ?@@ (FDI) ?

@ E<@ ><< 94% @ $0.182

1 2012/13, =>@>--=>@>,

? @@.

EJ EKP 3 2011/12 -

? HK I GK K J

>> >K, >?K

> > I >G

>K #GK 2012, K

2012, H>K. A FG 1 I,

FD, =K H I, ?>K?,

GHK EK, H

$ 1.9 4 2011/12 ?

$ 0.1 , K >.

GG, IH, G=>K -

G I >> >K, ?-

? H I

K, <GK.

*@ FDI ? > @ $ 0.1

1 2012/13, @ @ -

><>> @>? ?@> ?

<@ ?@@, @ -

? <@ @ > >

@ ?>@-@>. D I

>>K 2.6%, K/K, 1 2012/13

(AJ C 1), ? 2.2% H >

K 2011/12, >=>K G

2% > K 2012/13. A>K, 2

2012/13 ? I D I

2.2%. I J -

> 3.5% > K 2013/14

>> GK . H ?-

G? ?, H? H

>> H H?

IG> G I J

7.5%, 6% H D

I H 2006-2010.

# @ <@> ?, <>@

?<@ > ?<<>@ @

2

Egypt Country Office | Economic Quarterly Review | Volume 3 | April 2013

A F R I C A N D E V E L O P M E N T B A N K G R O U P

Figure 1 Egypt's Net FDI and Real GDP Growth Rate (Quartely Data)

Source: AfDB based on data by the Central Bank of Egypt.





>@ >? >

> 77% GD > @

2009/10-2011/12 ? >?, @ 83%

GD 1 2012/13 I

AJ C 2. H>

G? I

G? J MH

K EK C' ?

D G C (DC)M

K 16% 83.2 D-

? 2012, ? 98.8 ? >,

> GK G

GG ?K. J I-

H H K 4.9% #GK. G>

G? H 11% D

? 2010 1 2012/13.

? H M

EK ? ? JM -

?>>K 5% D 1

2012/13 ? H 6% D

H > K 2009/10 2011/12,

G = G >>K 7% D

1 2011/12. B@ <>@? -

<>@? ? % GD, -

? @ >@, > 20%,

26%, > @ <> 2009/10-

2011/12, @ 17%, 22%, 1

2012/13, >?<@. H? I

GG, >> ? 18% D G

2009/10-2011/12 , 11%

D 1 2012/13.

? H>G , EK-

?K ? I>--

MG>G, J,

?GG (AJ C 3), I

1 2012/13 G D

18%, 16%, 15%, H>K.

* >@> > >@

>?@, > @ 3% @

3.5% > @ <>? 2009/10 @ 1

2012/13, >@ @ @>

?@> ? @ 2.8% 1

2012/13, > 5.1% ? >

2009/10. E@>@?, >,

@>@ @ -0.1% 1 2012/13,

> >@ >@ 0.9% ?

> 2009/10. >G G?,

??G, G -

K -11.4%, -8.2%, -

7.8% 1 2012/13, H>K,

? > K 2009/10. FG-

, ? 1 2011/12 1 2012/13,

GL C> K -

3.4% (AJ C 4)

>@ @@ ?

E<@?

@ >@ I (I) @@ -

><>@? 60% @ @-

<@. D? 2012,

>>K K 4.3% K/K

180.8% ? 173.3% D?

2011, ? >I --

H>G >H> 202.9%, #GK

2011. A I FG 2, >

>>K ? >> GL

C>, G? .

Figure 2 Egypt Total Production Index

Source: AfDB based on Ministry of Planning data.



@>? ?@> @>@?

@ 25% > >-

? > @?, <?

@ 12% E<@ > >, ?

@ @ >> @ @? <>->@ <-

@@ (FG 3). G H>, -

> HG, K 17%, 13%

2011/12 K/K, H>K, G ?

22% 25%, >I >H> H

2010. G? HG >> K $ 1.2

2011/12 G> >

H K G ? $

85 2011 $ 72.1 H

#G>K 2011 #G 2012. 1

2012/13, G? = K

>K 2.3%, ?

-26% 1 2011/12. FG?,

P HG > >>K $

2.6 1 2012/13, ? $ 2.7

H ? > K. *>K,

> H> G-

K = EK > -

G G 140 ,

C, =, ?,

G? I>> I

HK EK' I -

?.

C ? ? >,

?@ @ @ >? @>-

<@ ??; @ @ @?

><@? @ $5.1 2010/11, >-

? ?@ @ $5.2 2011/12

(AJ C 5 & 6). !IH, 1

2012/13, GL C> HG >

K 5% $ 1.29 , ? $ 1.36

1 2011/12. FG,

G EK' >

, GL ?>, > ?

50 > ,

>I GL C>. G?-

> = GL

C> K 16% #GK 2013,

? #GK 2012. ?

HG, GL C> AGK

(CA) G >> H>

G C> ? 1 K 2013

I>> K K 2-5% ?

G .

Employment and Unemployment

E<@? <>@ ?@>, @?

> 73% <@ @>-

@? ? @ 63% GD, ?

@>@ >@ @? @? ?-

@? <@@ @ >@ ?.

A EK C>

AK G> >L -

(CAA), G?>K? -

13% G G

2012 (> K) G ? 12.4%

? G 2011. -

H G?>K?

EK 9.9% H -

2009/10 (FG 4), >I

G> ? G

20%.

4



Figure 3 Tourist Arrivals and Nights (Thousands)

Source: AfDB based on Data by the Central Bank of Egypt.



G?>K? ?

= -

? G? H K

I EKP G?>K?

>? ? 8.9% G G

2010 11.9% G

2011. > ? I EKP >

M I

>

L G> 15-64

KM >? >

? H 31% ( ?

2000 2011) 33% 2011

49% -

> LP .

A>G 56,000 EK <

I= G G

2012, CAA H> G

3.3 ?>> EK ? G?-

>K. #> @? <>, @ -

<@ >@? >: 22.1% > @?

@ 25 29 >? ;

46.4% @? @-

20 24 >? .

> I KG I

G ? ? -

H>K K <> H

>K I G <. G?-

>K? ? I? I 24%

G G 2012; ?

G> ?

9.1%. H , EKP -

G>G> G ?<

?>K K G

> ? 26

?>>, I? 22% I?.

Monetary Sector

@> >? @ <>?-

?>?, @ C@> B E<@

(CBE) !> 2013, >? @>?@

>@? > @> "> 2011 -

?: @ >@ <?@ -

>@? > >? 50 ??

<@? @ 9.75% 10.75%, >?<-

@, @ ?@ >@ 75

?? <@? @ 10.25% (FG 5). D-

H K J H?

, 3 ?, -K -

B>> H

13.05%, 14.5%, 2 2012/13,

? 11.7% 11.5%

#G 2011. >GK M>-

? -

?M ?= J

? H>>K GG. FG,

CBEP ?K >K ??

G >I H G?

>> = 10% K

-#G 2012, ? 14%

A> 2012, H ??>

>I I

.

5



Figure 4 Unemployment and Labor Force Participation

Source: AfDB based on data by the Central Bank of Egypt.



@ >@ (?

?> @ > C?>

> I, CI), > @

>@, ? > 2013 @

6.27%, 5.23% > 11.8%,

8.94%, >?<@ 2011 -

? @>@

@<@ (AJ C 7) @ @>

>?? > @ <?. !> C

K 0.15% ?--?

(?/?) D? 2012, I>, H

? ?, C K 0.44%

?/?. AG> > G? >

G 8.7% K/K FGK

2013, ?>K G

? G> ??

G> > GK -

H>G. , >-

K > K

9.7% 16.2% K/K H>K F-

GK 2013. G

H>G GK, CBE HI

GG> >= G>K

G > G

>K = I. -

G ?G>- >K ,

G>= > J

? , G

G 12% K ?- K.

CBE < @ @> -

>@ (!2) 12.3% @ EG 1,167.2

D> 2012, > @ !2

?, > >> . I >>K

J -H>G >

I ?K G>K 9% H

2008 2011 . A % D, F-

G 5 I 2 ?K -

> 65.7% D?

2012, ? 66.2% D? 2011.

!IH, 2 ?K

>K = 70.96% D #G

2012 I CBE >I H G-

? >> =

> ? GG,

= >H>K H> >K

. D? 2012, K

(1) M0 >G >> GK ?

M I K 12.7% K/K E

288.14 , I> G K M>G

? H >>

GM K

12.2% K/K E 879 .

?K , H

?K (0) MGK G>

= >

CBEM J >I

2.7% K/K E 264.3 D?

2012. G> G H>G

G> >>L M G-

K > ?K

G>KM I IG> ?

K ?L, M

2 DM I H

?K.

6



Figure 5 Monetary Sector Indicators

Source: AfDB based on data by the Central Bank of Egypt and Ministry of Finance.



E<@? @ >@

> @@ ? @> 2004,

@@ ? @ < @ >@

@@ > EG6 @ @ $,

? >? @

? ?>< >< > >-

?>?. FG 6 I CBE

$ 21 H>G

EK G. A G>,

> H > ?

$ 35 #GK 2011 $ 13.4

K - 2013, I> EK-

GK

$ K 16%, ? E5.8 E6.7

H ? , G> >L

E 7.25 K #G 2013. A >= ?-

= J >I>K ?, I

G >> G 10% ?

> ; G IG>

> -= H G

>L J

?=. >H> H

>> >I $ 15 , M > ?-

?G? >H> G ? ?-

M, CBE >-D? 2012

G ? H

IG> >K G H J>

, H ?. -

, CBE G $ GK

G >. A G-

K K , >

F> C (FC) >G

GK I ?? I>> -

> >> ? G G-

K > >.

? GK' ,

> = H GI

? H? 2011 >H>.

I > >

= I >=>K

?G G> >I

I >>L IG> G G

? II G E J-

. C>>@, ??'

>@ >@ ? ?> @

@ @ > @>? CBE, @

17.6% D> 2012, < >

16.9% "> 2012, 17.4%

D> 2011. B 2004

E<@ <> >>

?, @ ? >@ >@

> 28%. = , -

G> ?G EP

IG> H

CBE IG> G = I=

GK = EKP

K ? > >K

G >K = G-

.

7



Figure 6 Egypt's International Reserves and US$ Exchange Rate

Source: AfDB based on data by the Egyptian Ministry of Finance and Central Bank.







I@ <<>? @@ ? -

@?, > ><>@ ?@>@

@ <>@@, ?@? > >

> @@>@ -@> -

?@@? E<@, <> @ -

>@ -?. ? ?=

> 2012 I ?

CG G (C), C??-

> > B= (CB), > -

G !> (!),

? >? !> (!).

H>G, G> I

(CD) EK H?

I >

>>I H> I K >>

>> G I-

>> = GK.

I G I

H> > > K, >G K

H? >K G >

G ? > K

FG (F). D? 2012,

P (&) G EKP

<G= >H> B- , J >IH? . I >>I K

F KP, I G EK' -

H ? "B+" "B" #GK

2013, ? B2 B3 FGK

2013, H>K.

G> I > H IG>

G I,

G G I ?K

= ?=. >> GK -

G GK I I >-

?. FG?, I

H? G

I>K >>I K >>

P I > -

?, -

GK ?< EK

=.

>@ >@ ?

? ? > <?> @ -

>@ ?>@?. <?>,

@ ??>@, ? @ ?

?? ?><@ <@?. G

H = G>K

= K?. A >-

? G>= ?

F, H? G

I J 0.001% >> E

IG> ?>L > G> -

HG ?G E 450 ? ($

66.8 ?), ?H

K = ?= J.

Public Finances

@ ?@>? ? @ >

@ <> -F>> 2012/13 >?

55% @ EG 146.5 (8.2%

GD), > EG 94.7 (6% GD)

@ ? <> ?@ > .

2012/13 > G H -

G K 19.2% E

135 (7.6% D), H-

? ?> G(FG 8). !IH, > GK -

? H =. E<@'? -

@ @ ? <@ > @ ?

> 2012/13 @ @ 12%

GD < > 10.8% GD (EG

166.7 ) 2011/12. *HG -

K 25.7%, K/K E 169.7

#G>K-#GK 2012/13. EJ-

G IH

29.8% E 288.9 H

? . = , >

G ?, HK -

HH, I 2012/13 >

K HG JG, K

29.6% E 393.5 , K 13.3%

E 534 , H>K.

>? @ ?@> >-

? > @ <> ->

2012/13, <> @ @ <>? <-

>, ? > >?? @ >-

? 35.4%, / @ EG 125 .

H > K 2007/08 2011/12,

J HG H ?: -

? J (47%), G? J

(39%), J (8%), K J

(4%), J (2%). ?

G? J G

#G>K-#GK 2012/13 ?G E

53.6 E 52.1 , H>K.

EK > >G? C-

(EC), GL C> AG-

K (CA), I

, K ? J -

?. H #G>K-#GK

2012/13, EC CA E 15.8

(29%) E 7.1 (13%)

> J ?, I> > -

? J ?G E 12.8

(24%) >. -J HG

K 4.8% E 44.7 H

#G>K-#GK 2012/13. H ?

K H? -

K H 51% E 3 ?- ? > K

I AJ C 10.

I ?@@? @ @ I!F, E<@ ?

<@ > @ -

?>? @ >? >?. D?

2012, G

J ? I > G -

G G> H>, I

J IG> H > =

, =, >>, =

>, K, G? -

>K ? K >I ? -

. FG ?G

K J, J

. ? , J

? IH HH

G I F, I

GK > > J

H> ?>L G E 13

> J HG.



I?@@ ?< >?

13.2% @ 15.4 > @ <> -

> 2012/13 <> @ EG

13.6 > @ ? <> ?@ > .

>K H ? > K -

?, G>=>K H?

G ? 2012/13

?G E 55.6 (3.1% D)

IG> H, H?

? G,

> JG.

D> @ ? > 2011/12, @

77% >@ ?< ?

< @ ?> (22%), ?

?>? (29%), ??? (26%),

>>G FG 9. H

#G>K-#GK 2012/13

H? G> -

H, I >, G

79.4%. G

G> H

(25.4%), G (26.7%),

I -

10



Figure 8 Fiscal Operations (EGP bn)

Source: AfDB from data by the Egyptian Ministry of Finance.

Figure 9 Government Expenditures (EGP bn)

Source: AfDB based on data by Egyptian Ministry of Finance.



> > 27.2%. #G>K-#-

GK 2012/13 I >

I, K? G> ,

G K 20.6%

E 78.6 , 32.5% E 73.5 ,

45.1% E 77.3 , H>K.

H , G (

> AGK G>K C?-

?, AC) K 28%

E 14.1 , I> K G

( EC) K 53.8%

E 57.3 .

D> @ ? > 2012/13, @ -

>@ @ @? ??-

? > <@> <>@? 26.7%

(EG 25.5 ), @ @? @? @

?@ >. A>G

K I A> 2012

K-H G, ?

$4 - $6 ?>> B ?>

(B), ? $2.25 - $3

B, ?G? K-H -

G, G H H 2012/13 G I>> >K

>L (AJ C 11 & 12). A ?-

? ? ??

H? F

? G

E 10-12 G > K

2013/14. A ?, -

H? G I>>

GL G> G K? ?

?G G> -

K H.

External Sector

E<@? ? @ >>@ -

@, @ C<@ & F -

@? ?@ @ @ $ 3

?><? $ 4.2 -

D> 2012, <> @ @?

$ 4.1 2.4 , @ -D-

> 2011 (AJ C 13). >K

#GK 2013, H EK

I > = $5 M

$1 -G>

$4 CBEM I

> GK H

> C> & F> A-

G.

A<>@ > @?

@>, E<@'? > <-

@ (B#) ? @>>@

?>< > @ <?@ @> ?

>?, < @ @ $ 8

-D> 2011. B

I $ 0.56 K

-D? 2012, G>

87% G G

MG >

I=P ? >

?M, I >H>K >

> > G G>I. -

H> I=' ?-

G #G>K-D?

2012 K $ 1.3 $ 9.3 ?-

? > K >-

? I B.

#@? <>@ ?@@? ?-

> @ <> -D-

> 2012 @ $ 0.3 <>

@ $ 2.8 ?@ >, ? >>?

? ?? @> E<@

>?>-B? (B?). A G>, >K

$ 0.26 > H?

G>I I C> &

F> AG G #G>K-

D? 2012 ? G-

>I $ 3.3 H ?>

> K.

"@ ? > >@ ?@-

@ (FDI) @ @ $ 0.3

> @ <> -D> 2012

<> @ $ 0.42 @ ?

<> @ <>? > . DG -

> K 2007/08 2011/12, EKP

FD >I H $ 6.5

(3.4% D), I FD

>I $ 13.2 (8.1% D)

> K 2007/2008. G>I

FD > >I I $

0.42 G #G>K-D?

2012 ? $ 2.1 , G

?> > K. FG, EK -

? N>O H?

?G $ 0.98 H -

#G>K-D? 2012, $

1.4 H ? > K.

FD >I ? (A)

? $ 0.15 (34.2%

> FD) 1 2011/12 $ 0.65

(29% > FD) 2 2012/13. FD -

>I ? A G, IH,

? $ 0.31 (11.7%

> FD) 1 2011/12 $ 0.16

(7.3 % > FD) 2 2012/13. FG-

?, FD >I ? EG

(E) K 44.5% ?

$ 2.1 (78% > FD) 1 2012

$ 1.2 (52% > FD) 2

2012/13.

EKP G G -

K/K K 26.8% 87% $

3.04 $ 0.23

#G>K-D? 2012/13, #G>K--

? 2012/13, , H>K

? $ 4.1 , $ 2.18

H ?> > K. ,

EKP G G >

? G>G $ 0.9

2007/08 H

$ 5.7 H G > K

#G 2012.

A FG 10 I, H

H K?

158% G 2 2012/13 ?

148% 2 2011/12. D I

H G>G $ 2.2

2 2012/13 ? $ 1.5 ,

HG K, ?>K H K -

G?, GL C> H-

G H .

11





>@ <>@? @ <>@? -

> 2 2012/13 @ 39.6% -

<> @ 46.7% > @ ? <>

?@ >. (FG10). EJ K 4.8% $ 6.5 2 2012/13

? $ 6.8 2 2011/12.

, ? K 12.4%

$ 16.4 3 2012/13 ? 2

2012/13. > I

K 27.5% $ 9.9

2 2012/13, ? $ 7.8

? > K.

>? <>@? ?

> >? 50.8% <@>

<>@? <>@? @ $ 3.8 2

2012/13, <> @ $ 2.5

2 2011/12. A ? ?, -

>G? J > 2 2012/13 K

12.7% $ 3.05 ? $

3.5 G 2 2011/12. G-

? H > ?< G>

?=, >>K >.

E EKP ?<

I J ? $ 2.7 ,

$ 4.3 , H>K, 1

2012/13. BI 2007/2008

2010/2011 E G H-

36% J ?

? IEK. H , ?< -

I EK >G

A I> (J: 19.4% ?

17.8%), A (J: 14.9%; ?:

20%), A (J: 16.1%; ?-

: 6.6%). I A CG

(J>G A ) ? >K

1.6% J, 1% ?

I AJ C 15.

F?, >?, ?, >@ <>-

@? >? E<@'? <>@? >-

>?, @ > 49.2% <>@?,

? ? (39.1%)

AJ C 16 I.

EKP ? : ?

(28.3%); G? (23.1%);

H? (17.1%). A ?<

G? -G> ? K

EK I. A F

AG>G L (FA), EK

I>P > ? I.

DG 2011/12 > K EK ?-

? 11.5 ?>>

I GK K?,

>H> 10 ?>>

H ? H HG I -> K. >? DH>? B=

#G>K 2012 H $ 1 -

= EK ? -

I I G> ? >>.

Domestic Resource Mobilization

E<@? ?@ >?>? < @

<>@? > ?? ? ?@-

@? >> > @

EG 26.5 (6.6% GD) 1

2011/12 @ @ EG 21.9

(4.9% GD) 1 2012/13. I

>K G > ?

I, > G?

> ?. -

> ? E 49.3

(11.1% D) 1 2012/13 ? E

50.1 (12.5% D) 1 2011/12,

-1.6%, K/K. A ?

?, ? H

J. F>>K, ? -

H ? E 23.5 (5.8%

12



Figure 10 Egypt's Quarterly External Sector Indicators

Source: AfDB based on Data by the Central Bank of Egypt.



D) 1 2011/12 E 27.3

(6.1% D) 1 2012/13.

Public Debt

H?@>, > 2005 @ 2012,

E<@? >?? ?@ @ <> -

<@, @> @ <> <@, -

> $ 2,127, $ 409,

>?<@, ?@ ?? @ @

2010/11 G"I <> <@ $ 2,600.

FG 11 >>G EKP -

? ,

H ?, I> ?>

> J> H >,

J = G 2007/08

> K. A G, ?

EK => > ?

I G -

K H ,

G>, GH ?, ?>>

?G? . FG?,

? >I I

I H H-?P G> >

60% D K > K 2014/15.

F >H> IH ? ?-

> AJ C 17 I.

B -D> 2012, @>

@ ?@ @ $ 38.8 (13.8%

GD), <> @ $ 33.7

(13.2% GD) > >> . E-

D? 2012 I G

67% J> (9.3% D)

I K > >> H-

?; , G 8% -?

. AJ C 18 I H

> K H 2005 2012

H J

H G H

6.6%, 5.5%, H>K. BK -

? 2012,

10.3%, 7.4%, H

J H G -

, H>K. J>

J H

I 275.7% 279.2% G 1

2012/13, 1 2011/12, H>K.

!IH G> ,

H 71.3% G > K

2009/10 2011/12.

G>?? ?@ @ ? @>-

<>? ? @ -

>?? 2008. B @

D> 2012, ?@ < @

>? 22% @ EG 1,293.9 (72.8%

GD) <> @ EG 1,058.4

(68.6% GD) @ @ D-

> 2011. H? GK >>

? G 90% -

? , E 1,158.9 K

- D? 2012,

22%, K/K.

D? G

>K, I H? G-

P > K?.

> K?

H? JG

25.4% H #G>K-#-

GK 2012/13, ? 24.9% G

? > K. > K-

? > K? -

H? , H>K, ?

E 55.5 E 28.6 , G

#G>K-#GK 2011/12 E

73.5 E 49.6 H

#G>K-#GK 2012/13. A G>,

> H? H ?G E 123.1 G H

? #GK 2012/13, ?-

E 84.1 H ? -

> K.

13



Figure 11 Egypt's Debt Indicators

Source: AfDB based on data by Ministry of Finance.



? >@ -?

>? > @ <?@ >,

?> @ 16% > @ <>

-A?@ 2012/13, I

AJ C 20. A H K>

E -B>> G >, -

H?P I H ?G-

G I > .

? -

I, H,

H? AGG 2012 >G

K EG ->> G. AG-

G 2012 G I ?< =

GK 513 ?>> EG ->>

H K> 3.245%, H-

?P J 400 ?>> EG.

H? 2012, EK G G-

640.2 ?>> EG I K

G-? ->> I

H K> 2.548%. I

H?, CBE 2013,

>G ? I>> > -

H G -

H = H?

?=, K GI H-

?. G ? I > G-

2000 2003 I EK

GK.

F> ? < <>?<@, -

?@ < @ <?? ?@

@>?@ >@ @> >??.

, EKP J> -

>H>K >I >G >

J-

G >. A K

H? IG> = ?-

G -> -? ?-

>-? GK

. EJ> I H -

G> H GKP >> -

>

I K G H

I.

> G EK,

>K G I>> -

G K $ 3

> $8 >K 2012. A>,

K EK $ 2 >> >

A> 2013. !IH, EKP >-

? G $ 4.8

FP -BK A?, IG>

? K G> G

K H>? . A >K

G G >=>K H

G ? ?>-

?, >>

G>, ? I GK -

>?K > I>>

= > > K.

14







Source: AfDB based on data of Central Bank of Egypt.

Annex I Charts


Source: AfDB based on data of Central Bank of Egypt. Source: AfDB based on data of Central Bank of Egypt.


Real Sector Indicators

Chart 1 Egypt’s GDP Growth (%)

Suez Canal Indicators

Chart 2 Egypt’s Expenditure on GDP( EGP, bn)(Current Prices)

Chart 3 Sectors Contribution to GDP (%)(Constant Prices)

Chart 4 GDP Factors Growth Rate (%)(Constant Prices)

Chart 5 Number of Tankers Passes Suez Canal Chart 6 Revenues from Suez Canal (USD, bn)





Source: AfDB based on data of Central Bank of Egypt. Source: AfDB based on data of Ministry of Finance.

Source: AfDB based on data by Egyptian Exchange.

Source: AfDB based on data of Ministry of Finance. Source: AfDB based on data of Ministry of Finance.

Financial Sector Indicators

Chart 7 Inflation Rate

Fiscal Sector Indicators

Chart 8 Monthly % Interest Rates

Chart 9 The Egyptian Exchange (EGX 30, Index Close)

Chart 10 Fiscal Revenues (EGP, bn) Chart 11 Fiscal Expenditure (EGP, bn)








Chart 12 Subsidies ( EGP, bn)

External Sector Indicators

Chart 13 Current Account (US$ bn)

Chart 14 Imports By Us (US $mn) Chart 15 Egypt’s Trade Partners (US$, mn)







Source: AfDB based on data by Ministry of Finance. Source: AfDB based on data by Ministry of Finance.

Chart 16 Exports by Processing Degree(US$, mn)

Debt Indicators

Chart 17 Public Debt (% of GDP) Chart 18 External Debt Indicators (%)

Chart 19 Domestic Debt Indicators (%) Chart 20 Interest Rates on Government Securities (%)





Egypt Macroeconomic Indicators

Egypt Development Indicators

Population (million) 87.1 (2011)

Population inside the country 83,795,857 (Jan,2013)

Annual growth rate 2.5

Labor force, 15 years and above, as % of population in Egypt 33 (2011)

Unemployment / labor force (%) 12.6 (2nd quarter 2012)

Youth unemployment, 25-29 years, as % of total unemployment 24.4 (1st quarter 2012)

Literacy rate, adult total (% of people ages 15 and above) 66.4 (2006)

Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP) (% of population) 1.69 (2008)

Poverty headcount ratio at national poverty line (% of population) 22 (2008)

Mortality rate, under-5 (per 1,000 live births) 21.1 (2011)

Improved water source (% of population with access) 100 (2010)

Land area 997,739 sq km, of which only 5% is inhabited

and cultivated

Population Major Towns (Sep 2012)

Cairo: 8,931,463

Alexandria: 4,595,277

Port Said: 639,704

Suez: 590,359

2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

(proj)Real GDP growth (annual % change) 7.2 4.7 5.1 1.8 2.2 2.0

GNI per capita, Atlas method (current US$) 1,880 2,160 2,420 2,600 -- --

Annual CPI inflation 11.7 16.2 11.7 11 8.6 9.5

EGP /USS$ Exchange Rate (End of Period) 5.50 5.51 5.51 5.81 6.0 ..

Total revenues (% of GDP) 24.7 27.1 22.2 19.3 19.7 22.1

Tax revenue (% of GDP) 15.3 15.7 14.1 14.0 13.4 15

Other revenues(% of GDP) 9.4 11.4 8.1 5.3 6.2 7.1

Total expenditures (% of GDP) 31.5 33.7 30.3 29.3 30.5 30

Compensation of employees (% of GDP) 7.0 7.3 7.1 7.0 8 7.7

Interest payments (% of GDP) 5.6 5.1 6.0 6.2 6.8 7.5

Subsidies & social benefits(% of GDP) 10.3 12.2 8.5 9.0 9.7 10.9

Primary fiscal deficit (% of GDP) 1.2 1.8 2.1 3.6 4.0 0.1

Overall fiscal deficit (% of GDP) 6.8 6.9 8.1 9.8 10.8 12

Domestic savings (% of GDP) 16.8 12.6 14.3 13 9.1 15.8

Domestic investments (% of GDP) 22.4 19.2 19.5 17.1 16.7 17.8

Gross domestic public debt (% of GDP) 73.5 72.5 73.6 76.2 80.3 77.6

364 Day T-bills rate (Average) 7.8 12.1 10.5 11.5 14.8 --

Gross external debt (% of GDP) 20.1 16.9 15.9 15.2 13.5 9.6

External debt service (% of exports) 4.6 6.4 5.5 5.7 6.1 8.0

Net international reserves (US$ billion) 34.6 31.3 35.2 26.6 15.5 16

As months of commodity imports 7.9 7.5 8.6 6.3 3.2 4.3

Balance of payments (% of GDP) 3.3 -1.8 1.5 -4.1 -4.4 -4.0

Current account balance (% of GDP) 0.5 -2.3 -2.0 -2.6 -3.1 -2.1

Trade balance (% of GDP) -14.4 -13.3 -11.5 -11.5 -12.3 -10.0

Exports of goods and services (% of GDP) 34.8 25.9 21.7 20.7 18.6 22.0

Imports of goods and services (% of GDP) 40 32.6 28.4 28.9 28.8 26.0

FDI in Egypt (net) (% of GDP) 8.1 4.3 3.1 0.9 0.8 2.0

Source: Central Bank of Egypt, Ministry of Finance, Central Agency for Public Mobilization And Statistics, International Monetary Fund, World Development

Indicators, and AfDB Staff Estimates.

Annex II Tables






External Sector Indicators

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1US$ mn

Trade Balance -7,134 -7,349 -6,191 -6,429 -7,823 -7,775 -7,929 -8,171 -6,880

Export 6,102 6,566 6,243 8,081 6,765 6,824 6,480 6,907 6,948

Import -13,236 -13,915 -12,434 -14,511 -14,588 -14,599 -14,409 -15,078 -13,828

Services (net) 2,623 2,961 1,265 1,030 1,622 1,501 675 1,564 1,697

Receipts 6,695 6,352 4,212 4,613 5,411 5,221 4,975 5,265 5,647

Payments 4,073 3,391 2,948 3,583 3,790 3,720 4,300 3,701 3,950

Goods & Services (Net) -4,511 -4,388 -4,927 -5,400 -6,202 -6,274 -7,253 -6,607 -5,182

Transfers (Net) 3,205 3,132 2,829 3,971 4,026 4,395 4,915 5,071 4,903

Current Account -1,306 -1,255 -2,098 -1,429 -2,175 -1,879 -2,339 -1,536 -279

Capital & Financial Account 1,192 2,067 -4,497 -2,961 502 -2,914 -1,257 2,265 444

Capital Account -7.9 -11.5 -4.8 -8.1 -20.5 -11.8 -46.5 -17.2 -38.6Financial Account 1,200 2,079 -4,492 -2,952 523 -2,902 -1,210 2,282 483

Direct Investment abroad -284 -150 -295 -229 -79 -23 -76 -72 -25

Direct Investment in Egypt (Net) 1597 656 -164 99 440 -858 636 1861 108

Portfolio Investment abroad -58 5 -60 -5 -63 -93 -6 13 -1

Portfolio Investments in Egypt (Net) 5,900 -1,329 -5,540 -1,582 -1,730 -1,579 -1,260 -456 -327

Overall balance 15 557 -6,071 -4255 -2356 -5649 -3165 -108 -519

As percentage of GDP (%)

Trade Balance / GDP -3 -3.1 -2.7 -2.3 -3 -3 -3.1 -3.2 -2.4

Current Account / GDP -0.5 -0.5 -0.9 -0.2 -0.8 -0.7 -0.9 -0.6 0.1

Overall Balance/ GDP 0 0.2 -2.6 -1.8 -0.9 -2.2 -1.2 0 -0.2

FDI in Egypt (net) / GDP 0.7 0.3 -0.1 0.04 0.2 -0.3 0.2 0.7 0

Balance of Payments Indicators (%)Merchandise Exports / Merchandise Imports 46.1 47.2 50.2 60.1 46.4 46.7 45 45.8 50.2

Service Receipts / Payments 164.4 187.3 142.9 128.7 142.8 140.3 115.7 142.3 143

Current Receipts / Current Payments 92.5 92.7 86.4 97.8 88.2 89.7 87.5 91.5 98.2

Services Balance / Trade Deficit % 36.8 40.3 20.4 19.2 20.7 19.3 8.5 19.1 24.7

Source: The Central Bank of Egypt.

Debt Indicators

EGP mn

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

Total External Debt 34,700 34,993 34,841.2 34,905.7 33,997.9 33,692.7 33,422.1 34,384.5 34,719.90

Total Debt Service (during the pe-

riod)

1,002.8 379.4 1,012.50 381.2 1,214.70 333.2 1,008 3,48.7 1,300.50

Interest (paid) 233.2 88.4 233.3 81.3 235.1 103.8 214.5 105.6 225.6

Principal (repaid) 769.6 291 779.2 299.9 979.6 229.4 793.5 243.1 1,074.90

Gross Domestic Debt 938,878 962,277 100,192,7 104,489,8 1,095,722 1,132,990 1,132,990 1,238,137 1,331,160

Net Domestic Debt of Government 718,78 738,87 778,884 808,113 856,681 894,620 945,088 990,529 1,079,675

As percentage of GDP (%)

Government External Debt / GDP 11.2 11.3 11.7 11.8 9.9 9.9 10 10 8.7

External Debt / GDP 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.2 13 12.9 13.1 13.5 11.9

Gross Domestic Debt / GDP 68.4 70.1 73 76.2 69.8 72.2 75.4 80.3 74.9

Government Debt(net) / GDP 52.4 53.9 56.8 58.9 54.6 57 60.2 64.2 60.7

Net Economic Authorities debt / GDP

4.9 5.1 4.9 4.9 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 3.8

NIB debt(minus its intrdebt) / GDP 13 11.1 11.3 12.4 10.9 11 11 12 10.4







External Debt Indicators %

2010/11 2011/12 2012/13

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

External Debt / Exports of Goodsand Services

271.1 270.9 333.2 275 279.2 279.7 291.8 282.5 275.7

Medium- & Long-Term External Debt / TotalExternal Debt

91.7 91 91.2 92.1 91.2 91 91.1 91.6 91.5

Short-term External Debt / Net InternationalReserves

8.1 8.7 10.2 10.4 12.4 16.7 19.6 18.7 19.6

Government External Debt / Total ExternalDebt

77.6 76.7 76.8 77.6 76.7 76.3 76.2 74.4 73.2

Short-term External Debt / Total ExternalDebt

8.3 9 8.8 7.9 8.8 9 8.9 8.4 8.5

External Debt Service /Exports G&S 7.8 2.9 9.7 3 10 2.8 8.8 2.9 10.3

Debt Service /Exports G&S (Annually) 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.7 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.7

Debt Service /Current Receipts 6.3 2.4 7.6 2.3 7.5 2 6.2 2 7.4

Debt Service /Current Receipts (Annually) 4.5 4.3 4.5 4.5 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.9

Interest Payments /Exports G&S 1.8 0.7 2.2 0.6 1.9 0.9 1.9 0.9 1.8

Interest Payments /Exports G&S (Annually) 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4

Interest Payments /Current Receipts 1.5 0.6 1.8 0.5 1.5 0.6 1.3 0.6 1.3

Interest Payments /Current Receipts(Annually)

1.1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1.1

External Debt per capita (US$) 411.1 414.6 412.8 413.6 390.3 386.8 378.8 389.7 393.5

Balance of Payments Indicators (%)

Merchandise Exports / Merchandise Imports 46.1 47.2 50.2 60.1 46.4 46.7 45 45.8 50.2

Service Receipts / Payments 164.4 187.3 142.9 128.7 142.8 140.3 115.7 142.3 143

Current Receipts / Current Payments 92.5 92.7 86.4 97.8 88.2 89.7 87.5 91.5 98.2

Services Balance / Trade Deficit % 36.8 40.3 20.4 19.2 20.7 19.3 8.5 19.1 24.7

Budget Sector

2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 Q1 2012/13 Q2 2012/13

(In EGP mn)

Revenues 268,114 265,286 303,622 50,674 102,237

Tax Revenues 170,494 192,072 207,410 40,151 70,941

Income Tax 76,618 89,593 91,245 15,613 34,234

Property Taxes 8,770 9,452 13,089 3,877 3,930

Taxes on Goods and Services 67,095 76,068 84,594 16,982 27,818

Taxes on International Trade 14,702 13,858 14,788 3,439 4,960

Non Tax Revenue 97,621 73,214 96,212 10,523 31,295

Grants 4,333 2,287 10,104 -166 3,159

From Foreign Governments 3,497 924 9,339 -183 3,071

From International Organizations 332 392 95 0 1

Other revenues 93,288 70,927 86,108 10,688 28,137

Expenditure 365,987 401,866 470,992 101,339 142,186

Compensation of Employees 85,369 96,271 122,818 32,407 35,686

Purchase of Goods and Services 28,059 26,148 26,826 3,788 5,769

Subsidies 93,570 111,211 134,963 16,495 50,087

-To non-financial public corporations 91,216 108,316 131,885 15,947 49,509

-To financial public corporations 2,354 2,895 3,078 548 579

Grants 4,380 5,319 5,305 620 1,045

Social Benefits 4,483 6,118 9,367 4,830 5,289

Interest Payments of which 72,333 85,077 104,441 31,565 27,559

-Foreign 2,840 3,416 3,418 1,140 930

-Domestic to (non-governmental Individuals) 53,128 61,134 84,455 26,342 22,484

-Domestic to (governmental units) 16,178 20,400 16,420 4,083 4,136

Other Expenditure 28,901 31,364 30,796 7,811 7,765

Purchase of Non-Financial Assets 48,350 39,881 35,918 3,549 8,916

Total Cash deficit 97,872 136,580 167,370 50,665 39,950Net Acquisition of Financial Assets 166 -2,120 -665 103 754

Overall Fiscal Deficit 98,038 134,460 166,705 50,768 40,704


Source: The Egyptian Ministry of Finance.







Real Sector Indicators

2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 Q1 2012/13 Q2 2012/13

(In EGP bn)GDP 1206.6 1371.1 1542.3 445.8 --

Domestic Demand 1269.8 1427.6 1660.3 467.8 --

Final Consumption 1034.5 1193.1 1402.2 418.5 --

Private Consumption 899.8 1036.1 1223.2 368.3 --

Public Consumption 134.7 157 179 50.2 --

Investments 235.3 234.5 258.1 49.3 --

Net Exports -63.2 -56.5 -118 -22 --

Exports of Goods and Service 257.6 282 286.1 76.2 --

Imports of Goods and Service 320.8 338.5 404.1 98.2 --

(In Percent of GDP %)

Final Consumption 85.7 87 90.9 93.9 --

Investment 19.5 17.1 16.7 11.1 --Exports of Goods and Service 21.3 20.6 18.6 17.1 --

Imports of Goods and Service 26.2 2407 26.2 22 --

Debt Indicators

2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 Q1 2012/13 Q2 2012/13

(In EGP bn)

Gross Consolidated Public Domestic Debt(EGP mn)

769,783 932,460 1,129,030 1,90,750 1,243,716

Gross External Debt (US$) 33,694 34,906 34,385 34,720 --

External Debt/ Exports of Goodsand Services

71 71 72 276

Total Government Debt Service (EGP mn) 98,856 117,251 140,916 53,939 90,734

Interest Payments (EGP mn) 72,333 85,077 104,441 31,565 59,124

Principal Payments (EGP mn) 26,523 32,174 36,475 22,374 31,610





A@ @ A> D<@ B (ADB)

A DH>? B= (ADB) AP ? H>? -

G > 1964 ?>L G ? > -

H>? 53 > ?? G. B=P ?? >G

24 -> ?? G > G? ?? G-

77.

B= H>? H > ?? G-

G II : A DH>? B= (ADB)

II, A DH>? FG (ADF) II G FG

(F) II.

A@ E<@

EK ADBP ? ? > ?? G.

G ?? 1964, EK >.

F> !> B> ADB #<>@?

F ? ? G A DH>? B=,

EK, H B=P I :

@@<://..>//@>?/>@->/<@/

C@@?

. K , * *H

E?>: .@.

A DH>? B= G

EK CGK (EF)

72B A> A> E=K . !>>

K> *JK/!>>

C, E

>.: +202 22 563 790 / 1

FJ: +202 22 563 792

EJ.: 6730-6759

D E S I G N E R C U / Y A L

Documents

Egypt Economic Quarterly Review - Volume 3 - April 2013