Eilat, 9 December 2014 GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ...GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT EILAT-EILOT GREEN ENERGY Benjamin Kafri, Global Head Client Relations Twitter: @benjaminkafri

GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT EILAT-EILOT GREEN ENERGY

Benjamin Kafri, Global

Head Client Relations

Twitter: @benjaminkafri

Eilat, 9 December 2014

1 Benjamin Kafri Eilat, 9 December 2014 @BenjaminKafri

200 EXPERTS ACROSS SIX CONTINENTS

San

Francisco

Washington DC

Sao Paulo

Cape Town Sydney

Singapore

Zurich

Munich

London

New Delhi Hong

Kong

Tokyo Beijing

Seoul

New York

North America

40

South America

5

Europe 90

Africa 30

Asia Pacific

35


Europe, Middle East

& Africa

Asia Pacific Americas

PRODUCTS TO HELP YOU UNDERSTAND THE FUTURE OF ENERGY

Solar Wind Other

Renewables

Advanced

Transport

Energy Smart

Technologies Gas

Carbon &

RECs Markets


$55bn

$80bn

$116bn

$167bn

$195bn $196bn

$262bn

$318bn$286bn

$254bn

46%

45%

44%

17%0.6%

34%

21%-10%

-11%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Includes corporate and government R&D, and spending for digital

energy and energy storage projects (not reported in quarterly statistics).

NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY 2004-13 ($BN)


NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY BY REGION 2004-13 ($BN)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

12.1

19.4

36.4

46.047.8

39.0

54.8

75.6

58.956.0

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13

North America & Caribbean

0.93.8 5.8

12.315.6

10.513.412.612.3

9.6

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13

Central & South America

0.5 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.6 1.54.5 3.5

11.010.0

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13

Middle East & Africa

23.834.0

44.1

68.0

79.3 82.8

110.8

123.2

97.8

57.8

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13

Europe

17.622.2

28.939.0

49.3

61.9

78.1

103.1108.9

120.6

'04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13

Asia & Oceania


Note: Total values include estimates for undisclosed deals. Excludes corporate and government R&D, and spending for

digital energy and energy storage projects (reported in annual statistics only). Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY IN EUROPE Q1 2004-Q3 2014 ($BN)

4.4

7.9

4.15.36.1

10.9

7.48.27.8

13.8

7.8

15.9

9.5

16.714.2

24.6

13.9

22.9 22.2

19.9

12.3

27.4

22.2

17.5

22.9

25.3

29.531.0

26.9

33.5

29.2

26.3

20.8

23.2

18.3

21.6

14.9

11.812.1

11.0

12.7 13.0

8.8

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Four quarter running average



Comprehensive review under way

Retroactive changes implemented (2010-13)Retroactive changes implemented (2010 -13)

Suspended

Comprehensive review under way

Suspended

EUROPEAN POLICY SUPPORT SCHEMES UNDER REVIEW, 2013

7 Benjamin Kafri Eilat, 9 December 2014 @BenjaminKafri ● 12/22/2014

Note: Values as of 08 October 2014; NASDAQ and S&P 500 rebased to 100 on 01 Jan 2011 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

NEX

S&P 500

NASDAQ

NEX CLEAN ENERGY INDEX 2011 – 2014 YTD

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Jan 11 Jul 11 Jan 12 Jul 12 Jan 13 Jul 13 Jan 14 Jul 14 Jan 15


Note: Values as of 19 November 2014; NASDAQ and S&P 500 rebased to 100 on 01 Jan 2013 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Oct 14 Jan 15

NEX CLEAN ENERGY INDEX 2014 YTD

S&P 500NASDAQNEX


Note: Values as of 21 November 2014; Stowe and S&P 500 rebased to 100 on 01 Jan 2013 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance

NEX CLEAN ENERGY INDEX 2013 – 2014 YTD

0

50

100

150

200

Jan 13 Apr 13 Jul 13 Oct 13 Jan 14 Apr 14 Jul 14 Oct 14 Jan 15

NEX

S&P 500 Oil & Gas

S&P 500 Utilities

Stowe Global Coal


PV EXPERIENCE CURVE 1976-2013 (2013 $/W)

Source: Paul Maycock, First Solar, Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: Prices inflation indexed to US PPI.

0.1

1

10

100

1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000

experience curve historic prices (Maycock)

Chinese c-Si module prices (BNEF) Thin-film experience curve

First Solar thin-film module cost

1976

1985

2003

2006

2012

Cost perW (2013 $)

1976

1985

2003

Q3 2013

2012

Cumulative capacity (MW)

2013

SOLAR PV MODULE COSTS HAVE

FALLEN 99% SINCE 1976


1984

1990

20002004

2013

10

50

100

500

100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000

MW

AVERAGE LEVELISED COST OF ONSHORE WIND 1984-2013 (EUR/MWH)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, ExTool

Note: Learning curve (blue) is least square regression: R2=0.88 and 14% learning rate. CAPEX, OPEX and capacity

factor evolution is included in this LCOE analysis; financing assumptions kept constant.

WIND POWER COSTS HAVE

FALLEN 26% SINCE 2009


0 100 200 300 400 500

NuclearCHP

Coal firedNatural gas CCGT

Geothermal - flash plantLandfill gas

Large hydroSmall hydro

Wind - onshoreGeothermal - binary plant

Municipal solid wasteBiomass - incinerationBiomass - gasification

Biomass - anaerobic digestionPV - c-Si tracking

PV - c-SiPV - thin film

Wind - offshoreSTEG - tower & heliostatSTEG - parabolic trough

STEG - LFRMarine - tidal

Marine - wave

Q2 2013 central H1 2014 central

8441037

US China Europe AustraliaFossil technologies:

LEVELISED COST OF ELECTRICITY H1 2014 ($/MWH)

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance Note: LCOEs for coal and CCGTs in Europe and Australia assume a carbon price of $20/t. No carbon prices are assumed for

China and the US.

● Onshore

wind as

low as

$37/MWh

● PV projects

as low as

$80/MWh


-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2020 2030

GW Biomass &waste

Solar

Wind

Hydro

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Coal

Historic Forecast

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, China Electricity Council Note: 2020 & 2030 forecasts from BNEF Global Renewable Energy Outlook 2014.

2013 Renewable energy

68% of new capacity

CHINA POWER GENERATION CAPACITY ADD BY TECHNOLOGY, 2004-13, 2020 & 2030


-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2020 2030

GW Biomass &waste

Solar

Wind

Hydro

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Coal

Historic Forecast

Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, China Electricity Council Note: 2020 & 2030 forecasts from BNEF Global Renewable Energy Outlook 2014.

CHINA POWER GENERATION CAPACITY ADD BY TECHNOLOGY, 2004-13, 2020 & 2030

2013 Renewable energy

68% of new capacity


CLIMATESCOPE 2014

www.global-climatescope.org

http://www.global-climatescope.org/


Source: Climatescope

POWER CAPACITY & GROWTH, CLIMATESCOPE VS OECD (CUM. CAPACITY, GW, ANNUAL % CHANGE)

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Climatescope OECD Climatescope % OECD %


INDUSTRIAL POWER PRICES 2013, CLIMATESCOPE COUNTRIES ($/MWH)

Source: Climatescope 2014




● 22 December 2014

NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY IN ISRAEL Q1 2004-Q3 2014 ($MN)

7 2

66

2 947

78

3249

8 1144

25

173

4

44 3468 70 74

55 49

150

4890

32

254

37

98

65

222

109

71

259

198

80

164

91

895

69


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Solar Wind Other

Energix Neot Hovav PV Plant &

Enlight Moshav Ohad PV Plant Energix-Renewable Energies IPO

Ashalim STEG plant


7 2

66

2 947

78

3249

8 1144

25

173

4

44 3468 70 74

55 49

150

4890

32

254

37

98

65

222

109

71

259

198

80

164

91

895

69


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Asset finance* Public markets VC/PE Small distributed capacity


digital energy and energy storage projects (reported in annual statistics only). *Asset finance includes reinvested equity. Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance


NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY IN ISRAEL BY ASSET CLASS Q1 2004-Q3 2014 ($MN)


Note: Total values include cumulative early and late stage venture capital investment in clean energy between Q1 2004

and Q3 2014 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance


TOP 12 CLEAN ENERGY VENTURE CAPITAL INVESTMENT DESTINATIONS CUM. Q1 2004-Q3 2014 ($BN)

7th place





NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY Q1 2004-Q3 2014 ($BN)

9.3

12.2

9.010.6

13.3

20.6

15.5

20.721.7

27.223.4

37.2

28.2

35.2

37.8

52.0

36.0

51.9

46.044.4

30.4

50.4

47.545.2

50.4

56.2

58.7

69.2

57.1

77.9

73.8

64.9

52.7

69.2

58.0

61.9

42.1

59.4

48.9

55.4 54.9

65.2

55.0


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Four quarter running average



FOSSIL FUEL AND NUCLEAR RENEWABLES

GLOBAL POWER GENERATION CAPACITY ADDITIONS 2010–30 (GW)

10687 78

6452

39

2010 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030

Nuclear

Oil

Gas

Coal

Forecast

6083

107

155

196

264

2010 2013 2015 2020 2025 2030

Marine

Solar

Wind

Biomass& waste

Geotherm.

Forecast

Unique analysis, tools and data for decision-makers

driving change in the energy system

[email protected]

MARKETS Renewable Energy

Energy Smart Technologies

Advanced Transport

Gas

Carbon and RECs

SERVICES Americas Service

Asia Pacific Service

EMEA Service

Applied Research

Events and Workshops

Benjamin Kafri

Twitter:

@BenjaminKafri

Thanks!

ANNEX


Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Destatis

ENERGIEWENDE 2000–30 (TWH)

Fossil

Nuclear Renewables

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030





NEW INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY IN GERMANY Q1 2004-Q3 2014 ($BN)

1.8

4.0

1.5

2.12.6

4.0

2.63.1

2.4

5.0

2.7

4.0

3.0

5.5

4.03.8

3.4

5.4

4.44.7

4.4

7.4

5.1

7.16.8

8.9

11.7

8.8

7.67.6

10.4

6.66.3

5.6

5.0

5.34.8

2.2

1.62.0

4.1

1.61.5


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Wind Solar Biofuels Other


-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Th

ou

sa

nd

s

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

Th

ou

sa

nd

s


JULY 2012 JULY 2033

GERMAN HOURLY GENERATION PROFILE (GW)


CLIMATESCOPE COUNTRY COVERAGE 2012-13 AND 2014-15

26 Latin American &

Caribbean nations

19 sub-

Saharan

Africa

nations

10 Asian countries,

including 25

states/provinces in

India & China

Nations studied for 2012-13 Climatescope Nations added for 2014-15


RETAIL POWER PRICES, AFRICA, SOLAR VS KEROSENE ($/WEEK)

Picture Credit: SolarSister Note: Illustrative figures for cost of 2 lamps plus mobile phone charging, Kenya, 2012

Kerosene

$4 per week Solar PV

$1 per week


Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, FERC

Note: Does not include PPAs under 5MW. ‘PPA price’ is calculated as the average offtake price over the period of

project operation. For projects reporting to FERC, the PPA price is calculated as the average selling price over the

operating history of the project. For projects not reporting to FERC, the PPA price represents the ‘year1’ selling

price.

0

20

40

60

80

100

Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14

PJM

MISO

MountainWestNEPOOL

NYISO

SPP

250 MW

US WIND PPA PRICES BY SIGNING DATE H1 2008–H2 2013 ($/MWH)


Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, FERC

Note: Does not include PPAs under 5MW. ‘PPA price’ is calculated as the average offtake price over the period of

project operation. For projects reporting to FERC, the PPA price is calculated as the average selling price over the

operating history of the project. For projects not reporting to FERC, the PPA price represents the ‘year1’ selling price.

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14

AZ

CA

CO

NM

NV

NY

TX

250 MW

US SOLAR PPA PRICES BY SIGNING DATE H1 2008–H2 2013 ($/MWH)



Note: This represents fund size; actual capital invested is lower and non-public. This figure may not

include all non-public deals. Does not include all third-party financiers. Each fund contains an unknown

combination of equity, tax equity or debt (or an absence of tax equity or debt). *The $300m Clean

Power Finance fund raised on 3 May 2012 does not contain tax equity

0

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

2,250

Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14

Solar City

Sunrun

SunPower

Clean PowerFinanceSunEdison

Vivint

Sungevity

CUMULATIVE FUNDS CLOSED BY SELECTED THIRD-PARTY FINANCIERS, JAN 2009-MAR 2014 ($M)


Source: EIA; Bloomberg New Energy Finance

PRODUCTION

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

+ 44% since 2004

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

-56% since 2004

IMPORTS

US CRUDE OIL (M BARRELS / DAY)


US CAR USE AND FUEL EFFICIENCY

Source: US DOT, University of Michigan Transportation Research Institute, Bloomberg

New Energy Finance

Note: Mpg figures are sales weighted average. Total vehicle miles grew at 2.7% CAGR

between 1971 and 2007

FUEL EFFICIENCY

(MILES/GALLON)

ANNUAL VEHICLE-DISTANCE TRAVELLED

(1,000 MILES PER PERSON)

8.0

8.2

8.4

8.6

8.8

9.0

9.2

9.4

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

-8.9% since 2004

18.5

19.0

19.5

20.0

20.5

21.0

21.5

22.0

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

+9.7% since 2004

Documents

Eilat, 9 December 2014 GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ...GLOBAL TRENDS IN CLEAN ENERGY INVESTMENT EILAT-EILOT GREEN ENERGY Benjamin Kafri, Global Head Client Relations Twitter: @benjaminkafri