El Niño: Impacts and priorities for action

17 March 2016, Rome

Regional Overview of Preparedness and Response Strategies and Priorities:

Southern Africa

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

2014 2015 2016 2017

El N

ino

/ L

a N

ina

Stre

ngt

h

SOUTHERN AFRICA: Timeline of Events and Impacts

Observed Forecast Assistance Required

El Nino La Nina (possible)

Peak Food Insecurity

DROUGHT SEVERE DROUGHT

Increasing Humanitarian Requirements

Agro and Pasture Recovery

Enhanced Flood Risk

Market Price Rises SOUTHERN AFRICA Humanitarian Impact

Increased Vulnerability: Higher Food Insecurity Lower Regional Stocks

Southern Africa

• Largest number of people affected: 29 million

• Greatest Impact: southern Angola, Lesotho, southern Malawi, Swaziland and north-eastern Zimbabwe, Mozambique (Southern), South Africa and Madagascar.

• Little recent experience in responding to major humanitarian emergencies; severely under-resourced

Country Name of plan Status Funding ask Funding

status

Gap

Lesotho National Response Plan

for Food Insecurity 2016

Released

Jan. 2016

$36 million Government

has pledged

$10 million

(28% funded)

$26m

Malawi National Food Insecurity

Response Plan

2015/2016

Dated

Sept. 2015

$146 million $71m

allocated

(49% funded)

$75m

Swaziland Drought Emergency

Response, Mitigation

and Adaptation Plan

2016-2022

Launched

by Gov’t

early Feb.

2015

$23 million for

immediate

response (total

$80m)

$7 million

allocated

(30% funded)

$16m

Zimbabwe Drought Disaster

Domestic and

International Appeal for

Assistance 2016-2017

Launched

by Gov’t

early Feb.

2015

$175 million for

immediate

response (total

$1.6 billion)

$0 $175m

TOTAL $380 million $292m

Humanitarian Country Team plans

Country Name of plan Status Funding ask Funding status Gap

Lesotho Humanitarian

Response Plan

2016

Being finalized

$59 million

(TBC)

$11.8m

received (21%

funded)

$47.2m

Mozambique Humanitarian

Response Plan

(February-July

2016)

Being finalized $60 million

(TBC)

$0 $60m

Zimbabwe Food Insecurity

Response Plan

2015-2016

HCT working

on new

2016/17 plan

$132 million $59m received

(45% funded)

$73m

TOTAL $251 million $180m

Zimbabwe, Lesotho and Mozambique Selected Non-Food Requirements • Health and nutrition requirements: $15.3 million • WASH requirements: $9.7 million • Child protection requirements (Zimbabwe): $8 million

CERF allocation: $23 million to date

FSC OVERVIEW AND RESPONSE- SOUTHERN AFRICA

29 million affected people in 11 Countries

Current and planned Food Security, Nutrition and Agriculture activities are funded at an estimated 32%.

Partners are building on existing national safety net programmes, including nutrition and HIV, and expanding preparedness and response activities- particularly capacity support to national governments, livelihoods and humanitarian interventions.

Livelihood Protection

Livelihood Recovery

Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2015 2016 2017

Planting Harvest Planting Harvest

Southern Africa:

Response Calendar

Livestock Interventions: • Feed • Vaccinations • Water Humanitarian food/cash assistance Nutrition Programmes Support to Winter Cropping

Seed and Fertilizer Distribution Livelihood Recovery (livestock re-stocking,

asset creation)

Regional Overview of Preparedness and Response Strategies and Priorities:

East Africa

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

2014 2015 2016 2017

El N

ino

/ L

a N

ina

Stre

ngt

h

EASTERN AFRICA: Timeline of Events and Impacts

Observed

Forecast

Assistance Required

El Nino La Nina (possible)

Peak Food Insecurity

EASTERN AFRICA Humanitarian Impact

Increasing Humanitarian Rqrmts

Market Price Rises

Possible drought: • Kenya, Somalia, • SE Ethiopia (cf 2010-11)

DROUGHTS: Ethiopia Belg + Meher Sudan, Eritrea, Somaliland

Agro / Pasture Recovery • N and Central Ethiopia • Sudan, Eritrea

DROUGHT DROUGHT

East Africa

• 15 million people affected • Most affected countries: Ethiopia, Somalia and Sudan • Ethiopia: worst drought in 50 years

– 5.8 million people require emergency water and sanitation; 435,000 children with severe acute malnutrition

– Joint Government/HCT plan. Government lead. – Funding gap: $656 million; $228 million urgently

required to cover food pipeline through June – Government allocated $380 million of its own

resources since September

Country Name of plan Status Funding ask Funding status Gap

Ethiopia 2016

Humanitarian

Requirements

Document

Launched in

Dec. 2015

$1.4 billion $744m received

(50% funded)

$656m

TOTAL $1.4 billion $656m

Country Name of plan Status Funding ask Funding status Gap

Somalia Humanitarian

Response Plan

2016

Launched in

January 2016

$70 million

(out of total

$885m)

$11 million

received (16%

funded)

$59m

Sudan El Niño

Mitigation and

Preparedness

Plan

Plan finalized;

formal launch

planned

$82 million $82m

TOTAL $152 million $141m

Ethiopia, Somalia and Sudan Selected Non-Food Requirements

• Nutrition requirements: $125.6 million

• WASH requirements: $89.5 million

• Health requirements: $47.1 million

CERF allocation: $32.9 million to date

FSC OVERVIEW AND RESPONSE- EAST AFRICA

Estimated affected population in East Africa is 15 million people in 5 countries

Current and planned Food Security and Agriculture activities are funded at an estimated 24%

The focus for this area is largely on emergency response, though resilience building and access to water initiatives are on-going.

Livelihood Protection

Livelihood Recovery

Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2015 2016 2017

Planting Harvest

Eastern Africa:

Response Calendar

Planting Harvest Planting Harvest Planting Harvest

Livestock Interventions: • Feed • Vaccinations • Water Humanitarian food/cash assistance Nutrition Programmes

Seed and Fertilizer Distribution Social Protection (restore and scale-up)

Livestock Re-stocking Asset Creation

Regional Overview of Preparedness and Response Strategies and Priorities:

Latin America and the Caribbean

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

2014 2015 2016 2017

El N

ino

/ L

a N

ina

Stre

ngt

h

LATIN AMERICA and CARIBBEAN: Timeline of Events and Impacts

Observed

Forecast

Assistance Required

El Nino La Nina (possible)

Peak Food Insecurity

Increasing Humanitarian Reqmts

Recovery. Tropical Storms? Floods.

Market Price Rises LATIN AMERICA & CARIBBEAN Humanitarian

Impact

DROUGHT DROUGHT

Increased Vulnerability: Higher Food Insecurity Lower Household Stocks

Latin America and the Caribbean

• Central America’s “dry corridor” is the most affected area

• Hardest hit are families who depend on subsistence farming

• 6,000 suspected cases of Zika virus in El Salvador

• 10% of Haitian households have members that have migrated

Country Name of plan Status Funding ask Funding status Gap

Guatemala Central America Sub-

regional

Humanitarian

Response Plan 2016

Launched

on 11

January

$57m $10m received

(18% funded)

$47m

Honduras $44.2m $2.2m received

(5% funded)

$42m

Haiti Humanitarian

Response Plan 2016

To be

launched

end March

$100m (TBC) $5.5m

committed

(5.5% funded)

$94.5m

El Salvador Strategic Response

Plan October 2015-

October 2018

Launched

Oct 2015

$44.6m (3

years)

$4.2m received

(9% funded)

$40.4m

TOTAL $245.9m $229.2m

Humanitarian Country Team plans

Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador Selected Non-Food requirements

• WASH requirements: $10.8 million

• Nutrition requirements: $7.7 million

• Health requirements: $5.5 million

CERF allocation: $12.7 million to date

FSC OVERVIEW AND RESPONSE- LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN

Over 6 million people have been affected in 10 countries + the Caribbean region.

Current and planned Food Security and Agriculture activities are funded at an estimated 26%.

Partners have been engaged in both preparedness and response actions including cash transfers and limited in-kind food transfers, agricultural training, and support to NDMAs. The emphasis is on capacity building and contingency planning

Livelihood Protection

Livelihood Recovery

Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2015 2016 2017

Planting Harvest

Latin America & Caribbean:

Response Calendar

Planting Harvest Planting Harvest

Humanitarian Food/Cash Assistance Seed and Fertilizer Distribution Social Protection (restore and scale-up)

Livestock Re-stocking Asset Creation

Regional Overview of Preparedness and Response Strategies and Priorities:

Asia and the Pacific

DRIER MONSOON, DROUGHTS

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

2014 2015 2016 2017

El N

ino

/ L

a N

ina

Stre

ngt

h

Asia & Pacific: Timeline of Events and Impacts

Observed

Forecast

Assistance Required

ASIA and PACIFIC Humanitarian Impact

Increasing Humanitarian Rqmts

Floods, Tropical Storms Market Price Rises

El Nino La Nina (possible)

Peak Food Insecurity

DROUGHT DROUGHT

Asia and the Pacific

• Mix of drought; excessive rainfall; cyclones

• Countries of greatest humanitarian concern: Fiji, Marshall Islands, Philippines (Mindanao), Timor-Leste, Indonesia and Vanuatu

• Marshall Islands WASH requirements: $6.1 million

• Fiji Tropical Cyclone Winston Flash Appeal (March 2016) requirements: $39 million (28% funded)

Government Plans Country Name of plan Status Funding ask Funding status Gap

Marshall

Islands

Drought Response

Plan 2016

Launched $8.2m 0% funded $8.2m

Fiji El Niño Response Plan

2015/2016

Not yet

approved

N/A N/A N/A

Vanuatu Drought Response

Framework 2016

Under

development

N/A N/A N/A

Papua

New

Guinea

Six-month El Niño

Response Plan

October 2015-April

2016

Being finalized N/A N/A N/A

TOTAL $8.2m $8.2m

Government plans

FSC OVERVIEW AND RESPONSE- ASIA AND THE PACIFIC

11 million affected people in 6 countries + Pacific Islands

Current and planned Food Security and Agriculture activities are funded at an estimated 39%.

In PNG and Fiji, the cluster in collaboration with National Authorities, rapidly established coordination structures to manage partner responses. In PNG, response insufficient to prevent severe levels of food insecurity and deaths. In Indonesia, ongoing & direct support to Govt Indonesia in Food Security assessment, analysis and early warning.

Livelihood Protection

Livelihood Recovery

Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

2015 2016 2017 Planting Harvest Planting Harvest

Asia & Pacific:

Response Calendar

Planting Harvest

Humanitarian Food/Cash Assistance Continued support to National Authorities Assessments, monitoring, coordination Livestock protection Animal feed, vaccinations

Seed and Fertilizer Distribution Social Protection (restore/scale-up)

Asset Creation Targeted livelihoods support to poor

pastoralists (Mongolia)