Elementary Crowding and Elementary Crowding and Capacity CommitteeCapacity Committee

(ECCC)(ECCC)

Drew MeetingDrew Meeting

October 30, 2007October 30, 2007

ECCC ChargeECCC ChargeEstablish a system-wide task group process to address crowding and capacity issues at identified schools. The charge to this task group is to consider any reasonable solution that over six years will:

• Resolve crowding at Tuckahoe and potential crowding at other identified schools• Ensure that no other elementary school will be crowded as a result• Provide at least one Pre-K program of any type (e.g., Head

Start, VPI, Montessori, Pre-K special education) at every elementary school• Not change choices available or admission policies

The Task Group will report to the Superintendent with recommendations in December 2007.

The Task Group will consist of:

2 citizen co-chairs appointed by the School Board

From each elementary school:• 1 parent/1 parent alternate chosen by the PTA• 1 principal or designee

1 representative from Montessori and 1 representative from VPIappointed by Early Childhood Advisory Committee

1 citizen representative from Facilities Advisory Committee1 citizen representative from Advisory Council on Instruction

Staff Liaisons:Assistant Superintendent, Administrative ServicesSpecial Projects CoordinatorFacilities Planner

ECCC MembershipECCC Membership

ECCC TimelineECCC TimelineThe Task Group will follow this general timeline:The Task Group will follow this general timeline:

February – April 2007February – April 2007

• Inform PTAsInform PTAs• Complete spring projectionsComplete spring projections• Conduct surveyConduct survey• Identify task group membersIdentify task group members

April – June 2007April – June 2007

• Hold initial organizational meeting to:Hold initial organizational meeting to:– Provide task group with data including spring projections and survey Provide task group with data including spring projections and survey

result, andresult, and– Plan work schedulePlan work schedule

ECCC Timeline (continued)ECCC Timeline (continued)September – December 2007September – December 2007

• Analyze data, including September 30, 2007 enrollment count, Analyze data, including September 30, 2007 enrollment count, determine scope of problem, and develop possible solutionsdetermine scope of problem, and develop possible solutions

• Report to Superintendent in October, after receipt of Report to Superintendent in October, after receipt of enrollment count and new projections, status of the enrollment count and new projections, status of the committee’s work and recommendations, if any, for change in committee’s work and recommendations, if any, for change in scope of committee’s chargescope of committee’s charge

• Keep track of related ancillary issues that arise during Keep track of related ancillary issues that arise during committee deliberations and report them to the Superintendent committee deliberations and report them to the Superintendent for potential consideration in a subsequent processfor potential consideration in a subsequent process

• Make recommendations to Superintendent in December 2007Make recommendations to Superintendent in December 2007

ECCC Timeline (continued)ECCC Timeline (continued)

January 2008 January 2008

• Superintendent makes recommendations to the School Superintendent makes recommendations to the School BoardBoard

• School Board holds public hearingSchool Board holds public hearing

• School Board takes actionSchool Board takes action

Total K-12 and PreK-12 Enrollment (September 30th), 1961-2007

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

K-12 Enrollment

PreK-12 Enrollment

K-12 Enrollment Projections 2008-2013

16000

17000

18000

19000

20000

21000

22000

23000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Stud

ents

5 Year Forecast3 Year Forecast5 Year Average3 Year Average3 Year Weighted Average5 Year Trend3 Year Trend2 Year Average2 Year Weighted Average

Elementary School CapacityElementary School Capacity

• Capacity Utilization = Enrollment/CapacityCapacity Utilization = Enrollment/Capacity

• Current Elementary Utilization is 87.4%Current Elementary Utilization is 87.4%

• Formula for Elementary CapacityFormula for Elementary Capacity(Number of K-5 Classrooms times 22.33) + PreK Spaces + (Number of K-5 Classrooms times 22.33) + PreK Spaces +

Spec Ed ProgramsSpec Ed Programs

• Factors Influencing CapacityFactors Influencing Capacity– Program placement (PreK and SpEd)Program placement (PreK and SpEd)– Changes in planning factorsChanges in planning factors– Specialized usesSpecialized uses

Elementary Capacity AnalysisElementary Capacity Analysis

QuestionsQuestions

All students who live in the Nauck community (those children residing in the Nauck CivicAssociation neighborhood who also live within the Hoffman-Boston attendance area) areguaranteed admission to Drew Model School or, if they choose, to Hoffman-Boston ElementarySchool.

APS Policy APS Policy 25-2.2 Enrollment in Neighborhood 25-2.2 Enrollment in Neighborhood Schools, Preschools, Area and Countywide Schools, Preschools, Area and Countywide Schools and Programs, and TransfersSchools and Programs, and Transfers::

Year 5yF 5yA 3yA 3yWA

Adjust, 5yF, 3yA

5 yr Trend 2yA 2yWA

2003 18333 18333 18333 18333 18333 18333 18333 18333

2004 17961 17961 17961 17961 17961 17961 17961 17961

2005 17600 17600 17600 17600 17600 17600 17600 17600

2006 17613 17613 17613 17613 17613 17613 17613 17613

2007 17820 17820 17820 17820 17820 17820 17820 17820

2008 18011 17694 17775 17869 18011 17735 17931 17964

2009 18457 17571 17834 17966 18150 17781 18093 18131

2010 19111 17495 17908 18067 18333 17891 18231 18292

2011 19903 17474 17938 18159 18507 17993 18382 18458

2012 20898 17447 17993 18255 18676 18204 18529 18624

2013 22175 17373 18046 18351 18854 18480 18679 18791

07-13 Change 4355 -447 226 531 1034 660 859 971

 PreK-

12   Diff from % of   Capacity Cap Util

ELEMENTARY TOTAL Projection Projection Projection Capacity Utilization no dual en

Abingdon 349 356 -7 98.0% 576 60.6% 60.1%

Arl. Science Foc. 465 460 5 101.1% 463 100.4% 99.6%

Arlington Trad. 426 442 -16 96.4% 442 96.4% 96.4%

Ashlawn 371 381 -10 97.4% 403 92.1% 91.3%

Barcroft 336 308 28 109.1% 442 76.0% 74.2%

Barrett 445 405 40 109.9% 515 86.4% 86.4%

Campbell 301 259 42 116.2% 397 75.8% 74.8%

Carlin Springs 479 496 -17 96.6% 563 85.1% 84.7%

Claremont 460 459 1 100.2% 515 89.3% 89.1%

Drew 528 514 14 102.7% 558 94.6% 94.6%

Glebe 377 367 10 102.7% 377 100.0% 99.7%

Henry 345 360 -15 95.8% 409 84.4% 83.6%

Hoffman-Boston 332 349 -17 95.1% 581 57.1% 56.8%

Jamestown 546 532 14 102.6% 572 95.5% 95.3%

Key 586 596 -10 98.3% 626 93.6% 93.3%

Long Branch 419 420 -1 99.8% 493 85.0% 84.6%

McKinley 414 389 25 106.4% 402 103.0% 102.0%

Nottingham 450 448 2 100.4% 444 101.4% 99.5%

Oakridge 447 446 1 100.2% 554 80.7% 80.0%

Randolph 342 344 -2 99.4% 420 81.4% 80.7%

Reed 24 30 -6 80.0% 30 80.0% 76.7%

Taylor 597 568 29 105.1% 631 94.6% 94.0%

Tuckahoe 588 589 -1 99.8% 499 117.8% 116.2%

TOTAL ELEM. 9627 9518 109 101.1% 10912 88.2% 87.6%