Elias G. Carayannis, GWU, Email ... - McGill University · Society, namely Government, University, Industry and Civil Society (aka Quadruple Innovation ... GLOCAL TARGETED OPEN INNOVATION

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From Industry 4.0 to Industry 5.0 and the Quintuple Innovation Helix Framework:

Theories, Policies and Practices

Elias G. Carayannis, GWU, Email: [email protected] Innovation Webinar Series McGill

• The concepts of Industry 4.0, Digital Transformation and the Internet of Things as well as Artificial Generalized Intelligence, Deep and Machine Learning and Design Thinking are discussed in the context of the nexus of the core pillars of the Knowledge Economy and Society, namely Government, University, Industry and Civil Society (aka Quadruple Innovation Helix Framework) embedded within the Environment (aka the Quintuple Innova‐tion Helix Framework).

• The development and convergence of machine‐centric and human‐centric AI‐enabled tools, modalities and methodologies sets the stage for a transition (evolutionary or revolutionary) towards a more balanced configuration of Human‐Machine interfaces and contingencies.

• The nature and dynamics of this transition from Industry 4.0 to Industry 5.0 and beyond are presented and discussed along with implications for theories, policies, practices and politics in the 21st century developed democracies.

From Industry 4.0 to Industry 5.0 and the Quintuple Innovation Helix Framework:

Theories, Policies and Practicesrom Industry 4.0 to Industry 5.and the

Quintuple Innovation Helix Framework:Theories, Policies and Practices

ELIAS G CARAYANNIS, GWUSB, [email protected] 2

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• Network Ubiquity •More than a billion Internet users and three billion wireless subscribers, worldwide

• Open Standards •Widely‐adopted technical and transaction specifications

• New Business Designs •Horizontally‐integrated operations

World Economy in a New Era21st‐Century Drivers of Change


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& Migration

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PARAPHRASING ILYA PRIGOGINE:FROM SOCIO-ECONOMIC BEING TO TECHNO-ECONOMIC BECOMING:

THE ERA OF CYBER-PROSPERITY

From natural (and/or artificial) scarcity to technology- and knowledge-enabled abundance

(Adapted from Carayannis et al, Smart Development, MacMillan, 2005)

ELIAS G CARAYANNIS, GWUSB, [email protected]

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INNOVATION DEFINED

Innovation enhances the yield of resources via successful technology commercialization

Innovation resides at the intersection of invention and insight, leading to the creation of social and economic value

•US National Innovation Initiative

Innovation is a socio‐economic, socio‐technical, and socio‐political phenomenon


"The innovator has for enemies all who have done well under the old, and lukewarm defenders in those who may do well under the new law."

Nicolò Machiavelli

Words of Wisdom to remember...


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Research Development Commercialisation

Core Market Focus

Crossing Company

Boundaries

Products in-sourced (e.g. Co-branding)

IP in-licensing

IP out-licensing

Technology Spin-outs

Ideas & Technologies

Docherty, M. (006), Primer on ‘Open Innovation’: Principles and Practice, pdma (Product Development and Management Association) Vision (April 006), pp.13‐17.

Chesbrough, H. (003), Open Innovation: The New Imperative for Creating and Profiting From Technology, Boston: Harvard Business School Press.

Open Innovation – making the most of Technology and Technology Convergence by interconnecting


GLOCAL TARGETED OPEN INNOVATION(G‐TOI)

Carayannis et al, JOTT, 2017


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Carayannis, WOSC 2017, ROME, ITALY


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Environment

GovernmentIndustry

Civil SocietyUniversity

THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK:<SMART GROWTH<QUADRUPLE/QUINTUPLE INNOVATION HELIXES>

SMART GROWTH


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15ELIAS G CARAYANNIS, GWUSB,

[email protected]

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INDUSTRY 4.0 DEFINITIONAs a new industrial revolution, the term Industry 4.0 is one of the most populartopics among industry and academia in the world.

Industry 4.0 plays a significant role in strategy to take the opportunities of digitalization of all stages of productionand service systems. The fourth industrial revolution is realized by the combination of numerous physical and digital technologies such as artificial intelligence, cloud computing, adaptive robotics, augmented reality, additive manufacturing and Internet of Things (IoT).

Regardless of the triggering technologies, the main purpose of industrial transformation is to increase the resource efficiency and productivity to increase the competitive power of the companies.

The transformation era, which we are living in now, differs from the others in that it not only provides the change in main business processes but also reveals the concepts of smart and connected products by presenting service-driven business models.

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INDUSTRY 4.0


INDUSTRY 5.0

• As Industry 4.0 was centered around the Internet of Things connecting devices on the plant floor, Industry 5.0 is focused on interaction between humans and machines.

• While we’re already starting to see this as humans work alongside machines and are connected to smart manufacturing plants via devices, the fifth Industrial Revolution is likely to continue the push toward more advanced human-machine interfaces.

• This will mean improved integration, allowing faster, better automation paired with the power of human brains.

• This also means robots aren’t going to be taking over manufacturing plants any time soon. In fact, the shift from Industry 4.0 to 5.0 means more emphasis on human manufacturers. And this shift —bringing together the best of both the human and machine worlds —will likely also mean improved productivity.

5/22/2019 WEMBA AI4BUSINESSDR. ELIAS G. CARAYANNIS

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INDUSTRY 5.0


INDUSTRY 5.0• What Role Will Industrial Robots Play in Industry 5.0?

• Industrial robots will be a critical component of the fifth industrial revolution. While much of what defines Industry 5.0 involves a human’s ability to customize and personalize a product at a mass scale, this is only possible with advanced robotic capabilities.

• Industrial robots will help close the design loop. By fully and efficiently automating the entire production process, humans are left free to create and innovate without having to worry about production constraints.

• Unlike in Industry 4.0 where robotic capabilities take center stage, industrial robots will take a back seat to human intelligence in Industry 5.0.

• They will remain a critical component, however, enabling entirely new production methods.


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INDUSTRY 5.0• With this focus returning to humans, the fifth Industrial Revolution may also require a new

manufacturing role: Chief Robotics Officer (CRO). This C-suite position will require an expert who specializes in human-machine connectivity and be responsible for all things tech, from making decisions on which machines or devices to add to the plant floor to improving strategies for optimizing the production line.

• According to visionaries like Esben H. Østergaard, Chief Technology Officer at Universal Robots, Industry 5.0 will bring the human touch back to manufacturing. Whereas 4.0 puts advanced technologies at the center stage of production, Industry 5.0 will actually see people working alongside factory systems.

This digital transformation of Industry 4.0 is creating new smart factories where machines are not only connected to the internet, but also producing and collecting data from across the supply chain. This data is analyzed to reveal intelligence that drives quality improvement, process optimization, cost reduction, and regulatory compliance on the factory floor.

Industry 5.0 will optimally marry the high-speed and accuracy of industrial automation with the cognitive, critical thinking skills of human staff. So rather than technology displacing people, it will actually enhance their roles in manufacturing. The responsibility of repetitive tasks like drilling or data entry will fall to automated, collaborative systems. Staff can then take on higher-level responsibilities in supervising these systems, making real-time decisions, and looking for opportunities to elevate quality and production processes.

This harmony of cognitive thinking and mechanical output is not as far in the future as you might think. In fact, an Accenture survey of 512 manufacturing executives from across North America, Europe, and Asia revealed that 85% of respondents foresee human-machine collaborative environments to be commonplace in their production processes by 2020.


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INDUSTRY 5.0: FIREFOX IN ACTION (see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Firefox_(novel )

• 5th - So the next revolution will come once we have cracked the code of wiring into the brain directly. It will take on the literal projects of - if you can think it, you can do it. Artificial Intelligence and 3D printing will take the brunt of the intelligence of this next stage and its very likely that cybernetic implants will be utilized to facilitate the brain/machine interface. Its likely that the cybernetic implants will either be "installed" at birth, or genetically manipulated.

• Minimal hardware, like google glass, might also become a solution in the beginning of this phase in order to bridge the gap between what we can do creatively and what is possible to do.

• This stage will value creativity, innovation and insight over process and more logically based thinkers. Research into the "new" and unknown scientific principles should be able to offer life long employment.

• If your job can be reduced as a "point A to point B" operation, your skills will be replaced by robots and computers to handle the logic behind the process.

• This will disrupt many professional segments that we don't necessarily think will be replaced by purely logical processes.

• Look for the medical, transportation, agricultural, insurance, legal and financial professionals to be replaced over the next 30 years by software/robotic combinations. It is very unclear how these changes will affect the world employment population and what jobs will fill in for these lost ones. You will be a programmer, or you will be programmed out.


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INDUSTRY 6.0: ATHENS 5 CENTURY BC REVISITEDVIRTUAL REALITY VS. REAL VIRTUALITY

• 6th - With the ability to create from digital blueprints easily under our toolset at a global level, we can foresee where and how society might function.

• A globally connected AI would facilitate the resources of a human population exceeding 15 billion people.

• Much of the political corruption and poor resource management that plagues us today would have to be relegated to the past in order to effectively manage the natural resources of wood, water, steel, food, education, robotics and energy for an interconnected globe. Most industrial tools, and mechanical fabrications will be handled by 3D printing, nanotechnology and CAM processes that rely little on human workers.

• Basically, machines will design machines and the materials and engineering will become too complex for most people to follow from generation to generation. It is likely that robots (autonomous AI's) will be more intelligent than people. Most of the population would use rented vehicles or mass transit to move around, if movement would be required at all.

• It can be estimated that quantum computing and resource management could even produce copies of "things" much like the fabled Star Trek Replicator towards the distant 6.0 stage. No reason why it would be limited to only food as often seen on the benchmark TV series.

• Each person would have access to all the accumulated knowledge of the world in a easily consumable human interface and the resources to create and build upon that knowledge in meaningful ways. Research, exploration and creativity would need to be the highest human endeavors.


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Einstein on IMAGINATION….

“Imagination is more important than knowledge. Knowledge is limited. Imagination encircles the world”

Albert Einstein 1879 – 1955


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NEXT GEN SEMANTIC ANALYTICS: PREDICTIVE PROACTIVE ANALYTICS

KNOWLEDGE, INFORMATION AND DATA (KID) ANALYTICSKID ANALYTICS FOR ORGANIZATIONAL INTELLIGENCE & ENTREPRENEURIAL COMPETITIVENESS

• Organizational resilience is linked to organizational competitiveness and robustnessvia organizational intelligence and KID4I competences and capabilities

31ELIAS G CARAYANNIS, GWUSB,

[email protected]

Why AI is so important for today’s businesses

According to the majority of industry professionals AI is going to have biggest impact on the business in next five years (Euromonitor, Sept 2018)

Globally AI will help producing extra 15.7 trillion dollars worth of goods and services comprising 14 percent of the world GDP by 1930 (PriceWaterhouse, 2017).

38% of present jobs will be eliminated by 2030 (Berriman, 2017)

45% of present job functions can be automated using present deep learning and other AI technologies (Chui et al., 2015)

Secondary impacts of AI tools will bring more disruption than we think

AI-based insights driven companies will grow from 27 to 40 percent per year (Forrester, 2017)

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Factors that made AI critical

• AI is a foundational technology

• AI helps making sense from big data

• AI agents are becoming more accurate than humans

• AI can eliminate, streamline and improve business

processes

• AI is at the forefront in the efforts of Industry 4.0

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What is AI anyway?

• Artificial general intelligence • Artificial narrow intelligence • Artificial super intelligence

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Key characteristics of intelligence:

Ability to scan environment and extract signals

Learning capability Ability to grasp and interpret Ability to reason Problem-solving ability

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Main differences between machine and human intelligence

1. Sense data: human - analog, machine - digital

2. Environmental scanning: instantaneous vs. excruciatingly slow

3. MemoryHuman: abstract, often fuzzy, not always reliableMachine: large, detailed and exact replica

4. CreativityHuman brain: creative, spontaneously resourceful, heavily heuristicMachine: computation dependents. Showing signs of creativity.

5. EmotionsHuman: emotional even at cognitive level.Machine: still at rudimentary level.

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Three types of learning

• Supervised learning • Unsupervised learning• Reinforcement learning

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Machinelearning

Artificial Neural

Networks

Artificial Intelligence

Deep learning

Deep learning

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• Finding relations• Understanding data

What happened?

What happened?

• Finding causes• Business analysis

Why is it happening?

Why is it happening?

• Forecasting• Optimization

What should or will happen?

What should or will happen?

Analytics in business

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Opt

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interventions• Energy usage• Traffic control • Process

improvement For

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• Customer expectations

• Worker attrition• Disease

outbreak• Crop yield

Some optimization and forecasting business problems

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01

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GOVERNMENT

INDUSTRY

ACADEMIA

CIVIL SOCIETY

ENVIRONMENT

GOVERNMENT

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End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote

sustainable agriculture

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOAL 2

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INDUSTRY

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Evolution of Digital Agriculture, Source: Accenture52

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ACADEMIA

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Informal institutions, practices, behaviours;e.g. organizational culture, learning orientation, communication practices

Agricultural Research and Education System

Agricultural Education system Primary Secondary Post secondary Vocational University

Agricultural Research System Public sector Private sector Civil Society

Agricultural innovation policies & investments

Bridging institutions

Political channels

Stakeholder platforms

Agricultural extension system

Public sector Private sector Civil Society

Co-operatives Contracts and

other arrangements

Agricultural Value chain actors &

their Organisations

Consumers

Processing, distribution,

retailing

Agricultural producers of various types

Input suppliers

General agricultural policies & investments

Linkages to science & technology

li i

Linkages to international

actors

Linkages to other economic actors

Linkages to political system

Source: Spielman and Birner, 2008, adapted from Arnold and Bell, 2001

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CIVIL SOCIETY

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ENVIRONMENT

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Sou

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INSIGHTS FOR POLICY AND PRACTICE:THE INDUSTRY 5.0 / 6.0 RUBRIC

• SMART TARIFFS / SMART TAXATION (NON‐LINEAR, COMPLEX, ADAPTIVE, DYNAMIC (NL‐CAD)) – CASE IN POINT: SWISS AGRICULTURAL TARIFFS – PRODUCT / PERIOD SPECIFIC – STRAWBERRIES, ETC

• A POST WTO‐WORLD / BIG DATA / SEMANTIC ANALYTICS‐ENABLED POLICIES AND PRACTICES – CASE IN POINT: DYNAMIC, CHAIN‐LINKED INTEREST RATES ADJUSTMENT CENTRAL BANK METHODOLOGIES

• SMARTer TARGETED OPEN INNOVATION (STOI‐er) (nicht STEUER…)• RESEARCH AND INNOVATION SMARTer SPECIALIZATION STRATEGIES (RIS3‐er)

• SMARTer e3d METRICS – NEXT GENERATION CIS (EFFICACIOUS ENTREPRENEURIAL ECOSYSTEMS DYNAMICS – e3d)

• ECOSYSTEM AS HELIX – QUADRUPLE / QUINTUPLE INNOVATION HELIX (Q2IH) MINDSET AND INDUSTRY 5.0 – SMARTer FIVE PILLARS ARCHITECTURE – ENABLED BY A NON‐LINEAR, COMPLEX, ADAPTIVE, DYNAMIC (NL‐CAD) ARCHITECTURE OF “DNA‐LIKE” LINKAGES BETWEEN AND ACROSS ALL FIVE STRANDS OF THE Q2IH

• GLOBAL / NATIONAL / REGIONAL / LOCAL FOCUS – SMART PLANET TO SMART CITIES MINDSET


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• The brightest frontiers of knowledge reside at the intersection of technology, insight and traditional disciplines

• A collaborative, sustained commitment by industry, government and academia is essential

• Innovation is a culture, not a department

•Nick D’Onofrio, –IBM Sr. Exec. VP

–Invited Lecture, GWU SoB, October 2007

Points to Remember…


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Ending Thoughts...

• 'Until philosophers are kings, or the kings and princes of this world have the spirit and power of

philosophy,... cities will never have rest from their evils - no, nor the human race as I believe...'

[Plato, The Republic, Vol. 5, p. 492]

• 'The lowest form of thinking is the bare recognition of the object. The highest, the

comprehensive intuition of the man who sees all things as part of a system.’ [Plato]


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She – she !!!


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Documents

Elias G. Carayannis, GWU, Email ... - McGill University · Society, namely Government, University, Industry and Civil Society (aka Quadruple Innovation ... GLOCAL TARGETED OPEN INNOVATION