Employment Trends Key Indicators of the Labour Market 5th Edition Lawrence Jeff Johnson Chief, Employment Trends International Labour

Employment Trends www.ilo.org/trends

Key Indicators of the Labour Market 5th Edition

Lawrence Jeff Johnson

Chief, Employment TrendsInternational Labour Organisation

Geneva, Switzerland


Global Unemployment, 2006

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

200

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

To

tal u

nem

plo

yed

(m

illio

ns)

5.7%

6.0%

6.3%

6.6%

6.9%

Un

emp

loym

ent rate

Total unemployed (millions)

Unemployment rate


Unemployment Rates: by Region, 2006

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

World DevelopedEconomies

andEuropean

Union

Central andEasternEurope

(non-EU)and CIS

East Asia South EastAsia and

the Pacific

South Asia LatinAmericaand the

Caribbean

Middle Eastand North

Africa

Sub-Saharan

Africa

Un

em

plo

ym

en

t R

ate

Youth Female Male Total


Global Employment by Sector

0

10

20

30

40

50

1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

Employment in agriculture (%)

Employment in industry (%)

Employment in services (%)


Starting Point

• In today’s world of widening inequality, differences in productivity emerge as an important policy factor towards creating the conditions for decent work and poverty reduction.

• The promotion of decent and productivework should be the central aim of economic development


World leaders further agreed to several important targets at the 2005 World Summit. They recommending the incorporation of these commitments into the set of targets used to follow up on the Millennium Declaration. This includes: a new target under …

Report of the Secretary-General on the work of the Organization

MDG 1: to make the goals of full and productive employment and decent work for all, including for women and young people, a central objective of our relevant national and international policies and our national development strategies; …..


Indicators for Target 1b

Employment-to-population ratios for persons aged 15+ and youth (15-24) by sex

Vulnerable employment

The share of working poor (US$1 a day) in total employment

Labour productivity


New Target 1bis has 3 specific dimensions:

Full Employment Productive Employment Decent Employment

No Single Labour Market Indicator exists today that would address all three dimensions of the target or meet the specified requirements


0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

World DevelopedEconomies

andEuropean

Union

Central andEastern

Europe (non-EU) and CIS

East Asia South EastAsia and the

Pacific

South Asia LatinAmerica and

theCaribbean

Middle Eastand North

Africa

Sub-SaharanAfrica

Em

plo

ym

en

t-to

-po

pu

lati

on

rati

os

Total Male Female Youth

Employment-to-population ratios


Employment and the Share of Working Poor 1996-2006

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

(Billi

ons)

60.0%

60.4%

60.8%

61.2%

61.6%

62.0%

62.4%

62.8%

63.2%

63.6%

64.0%

above US$2US$2 Working Poor a day US$1 Working Poor a day Employment-to-population ratio


US$1 working poverty around the world(global estimate 507 million in 2006)

South Asia38%

Middle East and North Africa

1%

Latin America and the Caribbean

5%

East Asia19%

Central and Eastern Europe (non-EU) and CIS

1%

Sub-Saharan Africa30%

South East Asia and the Pacif ic

6%

Source: ILO, Working Moor Model 2006


430 million new entrants into the global labour force (2005-2015)

Sub-Saharan Africa19%

Central and Eastern Europe (non-EU)

and CIS1%

East Asia11%

South East Asia and the Pacific

13%

South Asia31%

Developed Economies and European Union

3%

Middle East and North Africa

10%

Latin America and the Caribbean

12%


Global Share of Working Poorin Total Employment

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

Sh

are

of

wo

rkin

g p

oo

r (%

)

Rate of progress neededto meet $2 a day goal

$2 a day working poverty(estimate)

$2 a day working poverty(projection)

Rate of progress neededto meet $1 a day goal

$1 a day working poverty(estimate)

$1 a day working poverty(projection)


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

WORLD DevelopedEconomies& European

Union

Central &South

EasternEurope

(non-EU) &CIS

East Asia South EastAsia & the

Pacific

South Asia LatinAmerica &

theCaribbean

Middle East sub-SaharanAfrica

North Africa

1996

2006

Vulnerable Employment Shares


Share of working poor living below US$1 a day

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Central &South-EasternEurope

(non-EU) &CIS

East Asia South-EastAsia & the

Pacific


theCaribbean

NorthAfrica

Sub-SaharanAfrica

MiddleEast

Per

cen

t of t

ota

l em

plo

ymen

t

1996

2006


Labour Productivity

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

WORLD DevelopedEconomies

&European

Union

Central &South-EasternEurope

(non-EU) &CIS

East Asia South-EastAsia & the

Pacific


theCaribbean

NorthAfrica

Sub-SaharanAfrica

MiddleEastO

utp

ut

pe

r w

ork

er

(co

ns

tan

t U

S$

20

00

at

PP

P)

19962006


Change in working poverty and levels of labour productivity, selected economies, 1996-2006

y = 0.792x - 4.5266

R2 = 0.3389

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

-15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15

Percentage point change in vulnerable employment share, 1996-2006

Perc

enta

ge p

oin

t ch

ange in

work

ing p

ove

rty

US

$1 a

day,

1996-2

006


Change in working poverty and vulnerable employment, selected economies, 1996-2006

y = -0.1807x - 3.7122

R2 = 0.3294

-35

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

-60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Per cent change in levels of productivity, 1996-2006

Perc

enta

ge p

oin

t change in w

ork

ing

povert

y U

S$1 a

day, 1996-2

006


Increased Productivity

Increased Real Wages

Increased Earnings

Poverty Alleviation

Productivity & Output Growth

Increased Well-Being & Diminished Inequality

Increased Investments & Demand

Sustainable & Expanding Growth

Decent Work & Employment

Growth

Poverty Alleviation

IncreasedReal Earnings & Social Benefits

Technological Improvements

Increased Demand, Increased Output

Increased Demand & Well-Being

Increased Technological Change

Virtuous Spiral


Which Regions will Reach The Goal of Full, Decent and Productive Employment?

Region

Employment-to-

Population Ratio

LabourProductivity

Vulnerable Employmen

t Share

Working Poor Share

($1/day)

Overall judgment

Central & South-Eastern Europe (non-EU) & CIS

+ (more recently)

++ no change ++Likely to reach goal

East Asia + ++ ++ ++Will reach goal

South-East Asia & the Pacific

neutral + ++ ++Likely to reach goal

South Asia - ++ + ++Likely to reach goal

Latin America & the Caribbean

+ + - +Likely to reach goal

North Africa - + ++ +Likely to reach goal

Sub-Saharan Africa - + + +Unlikely to reach goal

Middle East - - + -Unlikely to reach goal


Key Indicators of the Labour Market 5th Edition

Lawrence Jeff Johnson

Chief, Employment TrendsInternational Labour Organisation

Geneva, Switzerland

Documents

Employment Trends Key Indicators of the Labour Market 5th Edition Lawrence Jeff Johnson Chief, Employment Trends International Labour