End Term Project

8/8/2019 End Term Project

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TECHNICAL AND FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OF SECURITIES

END TERM PROJECT

“FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OF SELECTED

SECURITIES OF INDIAN STOCK MARKET”

In partial fulfillment for the requirement of the pgp

SUBMITTED BY

VARSHA D. BIJEGAONKAR

Under the guidance of :

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S.No. TITLE Pg.No.

Executive summery 3

1. CH 1 Introduction 5

1.1 Rationale 7

1.2 Objectives 8

1.3 Research Methodology

2. CH 2. FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS A CONCEPTUAL OVERVIEW 10

2.1 Economic Analysis

2.2 Industry Analysis

2.3 Company Analysis

3. 3.3.1 The Management

3.3.2 The Company

3.3.3 The Annual Report

3.3.4 Ratios

3.3.5 Cash Flow

4 CH 4 Analysis 21

5 CH 5 Limitations 58

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6 CH 6 Conclusion 60

Glossary

7 References and Bibliography 63

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The project titled “fundamental analysis of selected securities”

MOSL(ANP) operates in various financial products and services like,

Consultancy, Stock Broking, Mutual Fund, Insurance, Registrar and Transfer

Agent, Research, etc.

The evaluation of financial planning has been increased through decades,

which is best seen in customer rise. Now a day’s investment of saving has assumed

great importance.

According to the study of the markets, it is being observed that markets are

doing well in equity stocks. In near future a proper financial planning is required to

invest money in all type of financial product because there is good potential in

market to invest.

In this project the great emphasis is given to the fundamental analysis of stocks .

while doing investment both fundamental and technical analysis are useful.

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CHAPTER- 1

INTRODUCTION

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1.1 INTRODUCTION

Investing, like marriage, isn't something that should be entered into lightly. You wouldn't

get married on a first date, would you? Ok, maybe some of us would, but that's not really

very Foolish. Before we marry... er, I mean invest in a company, there are more than a

few things we need to know about it.

Securities Analysis

An analysis of securities and the organization and operation of their markets. Thedetermination of the risk reward structure of equity and debt securities and their valuation. Special emphasis on common stocks. Other topics include fundamentalanalysis and technical analysis.

Technical analysis is a method of predicting price movements and future market trends by studying charts of past market action which take into account price of instruments,volume of trading and, where applicable, open interest in the instruments.

Fundamental analysis is a method of forecasting the future price movements of a

financial instrument based on economic, political, environmental and other relevantfactors and statistics that will affect the basic supply and demand of whatever underliesthe financial instrument.

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Main differences between the two types of analysis:

1.2 RATIONALE FOR THE STUDY

In an industry plagued with skepticism and a stock market increasingly difficult to

predict and contend with, if one looks hard enough there may still be a genuine aid for

the Day Trader and Short Term Investor.

The price of a security represents a consensus. It is the price at which one person agrees

to buy and another agrees to sell. The price at which an investor is willing to buy or sell

depends primarily on his expectations. If he expects the security's price to rise, he will

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Fundamental analysis Technical analysis

Focuses on what ought tohappen in a market

Focuses on what actuallyhappens in a market

Factors involved in priceanalysis:

1. Supply and demand2. Seasonal cycles3. Weather 4. Government policy

Charts are based on marketaction involving:

1. Price2. Volume3. Open interest (futuresonly)




buy it; if the investor expects the price to fall, he will sell it. These simple statements are

the cause of a major challenge in forecasting security prices, because they refer to human

expectations. As we all know firsthand, humans expectations are neither easily

quantifiable nor predictable.

If prices are based on investor expectations, then knowing what a security should sell for

(i.e., fundamental analysis) becomes less important than knowing what other investors

expect it to sell for. That's not to say that knowing what a security should sell for isn't

important--it is. But there is usually a fairly strong consensus of a stock's future earnings

that the average investor cannot disprove

Fundamental analysis and technical analysis can co-exist in peace and complement each other. Sinceall the investors in the stock market want to make the maximum profits possible, they just cannot

afford to ignore either fundamental or technical analysis.

1.3 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY

Primary Objective:a) To do fundamental analysis of chosen securities

Sub-Objectives:

a) to study the various theories of fundamental analysis

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b) understand the movement and performance of stocks

c) understanding and analyzing the factors that affect the movement of stock

prices in the Indian Stock Markets

1.4 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY & DESIGN

TYPE OF STUDY

The research has been based on secondary data analysis. The study has been exploratory

as it aims at examining the secondary data for analyzing the previous researches that

have been done in the area of technical and fundamental analysis of stocks. Theknowledge thus gained from this preliminary study forms the basis for the further

detailed Descriptive research. In the exploratory study, the various technical indicators

that are important for analyzing stock were actually identified and important ones short

listed.

SAMPLE DESIGN

The sample of the stocks for the purpose of collecting secondary data has been selected

on the basis of Random Sampling. The stocks are chosen in an unbiased manner and

each stock is chosen independent of the other stocks chosen.

SAMPLE SIZE

The sample size for the number of stocks is taken as 4 for fundamental analysis of stocks

as fundamental analysis is very exhaustive and requires detailed study.

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CHAPTER- 3

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FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS

A CONCEPTUAL OVERVIEW

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Fundamental analysis refers to the study of the core underlying elements that influencethe economy of a particular entity. It is a method of study that attempts to predict priceaction and market trends by analyzing economic indicators, government policy andsocietal factors (to name just a few elements) within a business cycle framework.

I. ECONOMIC ANALYSIS:

POLITICO-ECONOMIC ANALYSIS: No industry or company can exist in isolation. It may have splendid managers and atremendous product. However, its sales and its costs are affected by factors, some of which are beyond its control - the world economy, price inflation, taxes and a host of others. It is important, therefore, to have an appreciation of the politico-economic factorsthat affect an industry and a company.

The political equationA stable political environment is necessary for steady, balanced growth. If a country isruled by a stable government which takes decisions for the long-term development of thecountry, industry and companies will prosper.

Foreign Exchange ReservesA country needs foreign exchange reserves to meet its commitments, pay for its importsand service foreign debts.

Foreign Exchange Risk This is a real risk and one must be cognizant of the effect of a revaluation or devaluationof the currency either in the home country or in the country the company deals in.

Restrictive PracticesRestrictive practices or cartels imposed by countries can affect companies and industries.crystallizing the exposure.

Foreign Debt and the Balance of TradeForeign debt, especially if it is very large, can be a tremendous burden on an economy.India pays around $ 5 billion a year in principal repayments and interest payments. InflationInflation has an enormous effect in the economy. Within the country it erodes purchasing power. As a consequence, demand falls. If the rate of inflation in the country from whicha company imports is high then the cost of production in that country will automaticallygo up.

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The Threat of NationalizationThe threat of nationalization is a real threat in many countries – the fear that a company

may become nationalized.

Interest RatesA low interest rate stimulates investment and industry. Conversely, high interest ratesresult in higher cost of production and lower consumption.

TaxationThe level of taxation in a country has a direct effect on the economy. If tax rates are low, people have more disposable income.

Government Policy

Government policy has a direct impact on the economy. A government that is perceivedto be proindustry will attract investment.

THE ECONOMIC CYCLE:

It affects investment decisions, employment, demand and the profitability of companies.The four stages of an economic cycle are:DepressionRecoveryBoomRecession DepressionAt the time of depression, demand is low and falling. Inflation is high and so are interestrates. Companies, crippled by high borrowing and falling sales, are forced to curtail production, close down plants built at times of higher demand, and let workers go.

RecoveryDuring this phase, the economy begins to recover. Investment begins anew and thedemand grows. Companies begin to post profits. Conspicuous spending begins onceagain.

BoomIn the boom phase, demand reaches an all time high. Investment is also high. Interestrates are low. Gradually as time goes on, supply begins to exceed the demand. Prices thathad been rising begin to stabilize and even fall. There is an increase in demand. Then asthe boom period matures prices begin to rise again.

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RecessionThe economy slowly begins to downturn. Demand starts falling.. Interest rates andinflation are high. Companies start finding it difficult to sell their goods. The economy

slowly begins to downturn.

II. INDUSTRY ANALYSIS

The importance of industry analysis is now dawning on the Indian investor as never before.

CycleThe first step in industry is to determine the cycle it is in, or the stage of maturity of theindustry. All industries evolve through the following stages:1. Entrepreneurial, sunrise or nascent stage2. Expansion or growth stage3. Stabilization, stagnation or maturity stage, and

4. Decline or sunset stage to properly establish itself. In the early days, it may actuallymake losses.

The Entrepreneurial or Nascent Stage

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At the first stage, the industry is new and it can take some time for it to properly establishitself.

The Expansion or Growth StageOnce the industry has established itself it enters a growth stage. As the industry grows,many new companies enter the industry.

The Stabilization or Maturity StageAfter the halcyon days of growth, an industry matures and stabilizes. Rewards are lowand so too is the risk. Growth is moderate. Though sales may increase, they do so at aslower rate than before. Products are more standardized and less innovative and there areseveral competitors.

The Decline or Sunset Stage

Finally, the industry declines. This occurs when its products are no longer popular. Thismay be on account of several factors such as a change in social habits The film and videoindustries.

1. BARRIER TO ENTRY New entrants increase the capacity in an industry and the inflow of funds. The questionthat arises is how easy is it to enter an industry ?There are some barriers to entry:

a) Economies of scaleb) Product differentiation c) Capital requirement

d) Switching costse) Access to distribution channelsf) Cost disadvantages independent of scaleg) Government policyh) Expected retaliation j) International cartels

2. THE THREAT OF SUBSTITUTION New inventions are always taking place and new and better products replace existingones. An industry that can be replaced by substitutes or is threatened by substitutes isnormally an industry one must be careful of investing in. An industry where this occurs

constantly is the packaging industry -bottles replaced by cans, cans replaced by plastic bottles, and the like. To ward off the threat of substitution, companies often have tospend large sums of money in advertising and promotion.

3. BARGAINING POWER OF THE BUYERS

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In an industry where buyers have control, i.e. in a buyer's market, buyers are constantlyforcing prices down, demanding better services or higher quality and this often erodes profitability. The factors one should check are whether:

a) A particular buyer buys most of the products (large purchase volumes). If such buyerswithdraw their patronage, they can destroy an industry. They can also force prices down. b) Buyers can play one company against another to bring prices down.

4. BARGAINING POWER FOR THE SUPPLIERSAn industry unduly controlled by its suppliers is also under threat. This occurs when:a) The suppliers have a monopoly, or if there are few suppliers. b) Suppliers control an essential.c) Demand for the product exceeds.d) The supplier supplies to various industries.e) The switching costs are high.

f) The supplier's product does not have a substitute.g) The supplier's product is an important input for the buyer's.h) The buyer is not important to the supplier.i) The supplier's product is unique.

5. RIVALRY AMONG COMPETITORSRivalry among competitors can cause an industry great harm. This occurs mainly by price cuts, heavy advertising, additional high cost services or offers, and the like. Thisrivalry occurs mainly when:a) There are many competitors and supply exceeds demand. Companies resort to pricecuts and advertise heavily in order to attract customers for their goods. b) The industry growth is slow and companies are competing with each other for a

greater market share.c) The economy is in a recession and companies cut the price of their products and offer better service to stimulate demand.d) There is lack of differentiation between the product of one company and that of another. In such cases, the buyer makes his choice on the basis of price or service.e) In some industries economies of scale will necessitate large additions to existingcapacities in a company. The increase in production could result in over capacity & pricecutting.f) Competitors may have very different strategies in selling their goods and in competingthey may be continuously trying to stay ahead

III. COMPANY ANALYSIS:

At the final stage of fundamental analysis, the investor analyzes the company. Thisanalysis has two thrusts:How has the company performed vis-à-vis other similar companies and

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How has the company performed in comparison to earlier yearsIt is imperative that one completes the politico economic analysis and the industryanalysis before a company is analyzed because the company's performance at a period of

time is to an extent a reflection of the economy, the political situation and the industry.What does one look at when analyzing a company?The different issues regarding a company that should be examined are:The ManagementThe CompanyThe Annual ReportRatios

Cash flow

THE MANAGEMENT:

The single most important factor one should consider when investing in a company andone often never considered is its management.In India management can be broadlydivided in two types:Family ManagementProfessional Management

THE COMPANY:

An aspect not necessarily examined during an analysis of fundamentals is the company.A company may have made losses consecutively for two years or more and one may not

wish to touch its shares - yet it may be a good company and worth purchasing into. Thereare several factors one should look at.

1. How a company is perceived by its competitors?One of the key factors to ascertain is how a company is perceived by its competitors. It isheld in high regard. Its management may be known for its maturity, vision, competenceand aggressiveness. The investor must ascertain the reason and then determine whether the reason will continue into the foreseeable future.

2. Whether the company is the market leader in its products or in its segmentAnother aspect that should be ascertained is whether the company is the market leader in

its products or in its segment. When you invest in market leaders, the risk is less. Theshares of market leaders do not fall as quickly as those of other companies. There is amagic to their name that would make individuals prefer to buy their products as opposedto others.

3. Company Policies

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The policy a company follows is also important. What is its plans for growth? What is itsvision? Every company has a life. If it is allowed to live a normal life it will grow upto a point and then begin to level out and eventually die. It is at the point of leveling out that

it must be given new life. This can give it renewed vigour and a new lease of life.

4. Labour RelationsLabour relations are extremely important. A company that has motivated, industriouswork force has high productivity and practically no disruption of work. On the other hand, a company that has bad industrial relations will lose several hundred mandays as aconsequence of strikes and go slows.

5. Where the company is located and where its factories are?One must also consider where the companies Plants and Factories are located..

THE ANNUAL REPORT:

The primary and most important source of information about a company is its AnnualReport. By law, this is prepared every year and distributed to the shareholders. AnnualReports are usually very well presented. A tremendous amount of data is given about the performance of a company over a period of time.The Annual Report is broken down into the following specific parts:A) The Director's Report,B) The Auditor's Report,C) The Financial Statements, andD) The Schedules and Notes to the Accounts.

A. The Director’s ReportThe Director’s Report is a report submitted by the directors of a company to itsshareholders, advising them of the performance of the company under their stewardship.1. It enunciates the opinion of the directors on the state of the economy and the politicalsituation vis-à-vis the company.2. Explains the performance and the financial results of the company in the period under review. This is an extremely important part. The results and operations of the variousseparate divisions are usually detailed and investors can determine the reasons for their good or bad performance.3. The Director’s Report details the company's plans for modernization, expansion anddiversification. Without these, a company will remain static and eventually decline.

4. Discusses the profit earned in the period under review and the dividend.Recommended by the directors. This paragraph should normally be read with someskepticism, as the directors will always argue that the performance was satisfactory. If adverse economic conditions are usually at fault.5. Elaborates on the directors' views of the company's prospects in the future.

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6. Discusses plans for new acquisition and investments. An investor must intelligentlyevaluate the issues raised in a Director’s Report. Industry conditions and themanagement's knowledge of the business must be considered.

B. The Auditor's ReportThe auditor represents the shareholders and it is his duty to report to the shareholders andthe general public on the stewardship of the company by its directors. Auditors arerequired to report whether the financial statements presented do, in fact, present a trueand fair view of the state of the company. Investors must remember that the auditors aretheir representatives and that they are required by law to point out if the financialstatements are not true and fair..

C.Financial StatementsThe published financial statements of a company in an Annual Report consist of its

Balance Sheet as at the end of the accounting period detailing the financing condition of the company at that date, and the Profit and Loss Account or Income Statementsummarizing the activities of the company for the accounting period.

BALANCE SHEETThe Balance Sheet details the financial position of a company on a particular date; of thecompany's assets (that which the company owns), and liabilities (that which the companyowes), grouped logically under specific heads. It must however, be noted that theBalance Sheet details the financial position on a particular day and that the position can be materially different on the next day or the day after.

SOURCES OF FUNDS

SHAREHOLDERS FUNDSSHARE CAPITAL(i) Private Placement(ii) Public Issueiii) Rights issuesRESERVESi) Capital Reservesii) Revenue ReservesLOAN FUNDSi) Secured loans:ii) Unsecured loans

FIXED ASSETSINVESTMENTSSTOCK OR INVENTORIESi) Raw materialsii) Work in progressiii) Finished goods

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CASH AND BANK BALANCESLOANS AND ADVANCES

PROFIT AND LOSS ACCOUNTThe Profit and Loss account summarizes the activities of a company during anaccounting period which may be a month, a quarter, six months, a year or longer, and theresult achieved by the company. It details the income earned by the company, its costand the resulting profit or loss. It is, in effect, the performance appraisal not only of thecompany but also of its management- its competence, foresight and ability to lead.

RATIOS:

Ratios express mathematically the relationship between performance figures and/or assets/liabilities in a form that can be easily understood and interpreted.

No single ratio tells the complete storyRatios can be broken down into four broad categories:

(A) Profit and Loss RatiosThese show the relationship between two items or groups of items in a profit and lossaccount or income statement. The more common of these ratios are:1. Sales to cost of goods sold.2. Selling expenses to sales.3. Net profit to sales and4. Gross profit to sales.

(B) Balance Sheet RatiosThese deal with the relationship in the balance sheet such as :1. Shareholders equity to borrowed funds.2. Current assets to current liabilities.3. Liabilities to net worth.4. Debt to assets and5. Liabilities to assets.

(C) Balance Sheet and Profit and Loss Account Ratios.These relate an item on the balance sheet to another in the profit and loss account suchas:1. Earnings to shareholder's funds.

2. Net income to assets employed.3. Sales to stock.4. Sales to debtors and5. Cost of goods sold to creditors.

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(D) Financial Statements and Market RatiosThese are normally known as market ratios and are arrived at by relative financial figuresto market prices:

1. Market value to earnings and2. Book value to market value.(a) Market value(b) Earnings(c) Profitability(d) Liquidity(e) Leverage(f) Debt Service Capacity(g) Asset Management/Efficiency(h) Margins.

The major ratios that are considered:(i) Market value(ii) Price- earnings ratio(iii) Market-to-book ratio(iv) Earnings(v) Earning per share(vi) Dividend per share(vii) Dividend payout ratio(viii) Leverage ratios(ix) Return on investments/total assets

CASH FLOW:

A statement of sources and uses begins with the profit for the year to which are added theincreases in liability accounts (sources) and from which are reduced the increases inasset accounts (uses). The net result shows whether there has been an excess or deficit of funds and how this was financed. Investors must examine a company's cash flow as itreveals exactly where the money came from how it was utilized. Investors must beconcerned if a company is financing either its inventories or paying dividends from borrowings without real growth as that shows deterioration.

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CHAPTER-4 ANALYSIS

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I FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS OF STOCKS

Basically fundamental analysis is covered in 3 parts :

1. Market/ economy analysis

2. Industry Analysis

3. Company Analysis

1) TATA MOTORS

I Market/ Economy Analysis

It covers the macro economy analysis and the various macro economic factors on thenational level like GDP, Monetary policies of India, Fiscal Policies and Inflation andmoney supply etc.

GDP

For the year 2009-10 the GDP growth is 6.3% , last year in 2008 -09 it was

6.7% ,and 9% in the year 2007- 08 , 9.7% in year 2006 -07.

Due to recession the GDP this year has gone down .

Strengths of India today are:

A well diversified industrial base which profits from self-reliance in all core

industries .A large & sophisticated financial architecture - The robust capital Markets

today have over 9000 listed companies and boast of a massive Market capitalization.

.ECONOMYEconomic analysis is the analysis of forces operating the overall economy a country.

Economic analysis is a process whereby strengths and weaknesses of an economy areanalyzed.

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GDP and Automobile Industry

In absolute terms, India is 16th in the world in terms of nominal factory output.The service sector is growing rapidly in the past few years. This is the pie- chartshowing contributions of different sectors in Indian economy.The per capita Income is near about Rs38,000 reflecting improvement in theliving standards of an average Indian.

Today, automobile sector in India is one of the key sectors of the economy interms of the employment. Directly and indirectly it employs more than 10 millionpeople and if we add the number of people employed in the auto-component andauto ancillary industry then the number goes even higher.

As the world economy slips into recession hitting the demand hard and thebanking sector takes conservative approach towards lending to corporate sector,the GDP growth has downgraded it to 7.1 per cent for 2008-09 and predicted itto be 6.5 per cent for FY 2009-10 Mr. Montek Singh (Planning Commission of India). Following is the graph showing a trend of Indian GDP trend in past 3years.

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The market value of Automobile Industry is more than US$8 bl. and Contribution inIndian GDP is near about 5% and will be double by 2016. The automotive industry inIndia grew at a computed annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11.5 percent over the past fiveyears, but growth rate in last FY2008-09 was only 0.7% with passenger car sales shows1.31% growth while Commercial Vehicles segment slumped 21.7%.

RecessionAll the major auto companies enjoyed the high growth ride till the mid 2008. But at theend of the year, industry had to face the hard truth and witnessed the fall in sales

compared to last year. In December 2008, overall production fell by 22 % over the samemonth last year. Global recession has hit the Indian auto industry, India is strong andgrowing industry but the impact of recession is evident now on industry as sales &growth of automobile companies have declined. Passenger Vehicles segment registerednegative growth.

One of its supporting facts is that the sales in December 2008 for passenger vehicles fell by 13.86% over December 2007 Two Wheelers registered minor growth of 1.85 %during April – December 2008. However, Two Wheelers sales recorded 15.43 percentfall in December 2008 over the same month last year. Although the sector was hit byeconomic slowdown, overall production (passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, two

wheelers and three wheelers) increased from 10.85 million vehicles in 2007-08 to 11.17million vehicles in 2008-09. Passenger vehicles increased marginally from 1.77 millionto 1.83 million while two-wheelers increased from 8.02 million to 8.41 million. Totalnumber of vehicles sold including passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, two-wheelers and three-wheelers in 2008-09 was 9.72 million as compared to 9.65 million in2007-08.

InflationDespite of negative inflation these days (-.21% on 22-Aug-09) we saw an increasingtrend of sales in auto sector. A moderate amount of inflation is important for the proper growth of an economy like India because it attracts more private investment. The fall inwholesale prices from a year earlier is mainly due to a statistical base effect and doesn’t

suggest contraction in demand, the Reserve Bank of India said few week back, whilerevising its inflation forecast for the FY through March to around 5% from 4%.

In last FY despite of skyrocketing oil prices (crude oil price has already up to $130 compared to $20 per barrel five years back), Indian automobile Industry was not as much affected and experts think that Indianautomobile industry will continue to grow this year despite all obstacles- oil price hike, higher interest rates.

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However, the effect of inflation has affected every sector which is related to car manufacturing and production. The increase in the price of fuel and the steel due toinflation has led to a slower growth rate of the car industry in India. The effect of

inflation has taken the rise in the price rate of the cars by 3-4% which in turn suffices theneed to meet the rise in price of the raw materials to build a car. The car market and thecar industry witnessed a fall of 8-9%.

FDI’sIn India FDI up to 100 percent, has been permitted under automatic route to this sector,which has led to a turnover of USD 12 billion in the Indian auto industry and USD 3 billion in the auto parts industry. India enjoys a cost advantage with respect to castingand forging as manufacturing costs in India are 25 to 30 per cent lower than their westerncounterparts the Investment Commission has set a target of attracting foreign investmentworth US$ 5 billion for the next seven years to increase India's share in the global auto

components market from the existing 0.9 per cent to 2.5 per cent by 2015. FDI inflows inAutomobile Industry 2008-09 was Rs.5,212 Cr an increase of 47.25% compare to 2007-08, while in April-May 2009 it was around Rs.497 Cr.

Source- FDI Statistics Govt. of India

Foreign ExchangeIndia holds the third largest stock of reserves among the emerging market economiesafter China and Russia. The overall approach to the management of India's

. Source: rbi.org.in

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foreign exchange reserves in recent years reflects the changing composition of the balance of payments and the 'liquidity risks' associated with different types of flows andother requirements.

Taking these factors into account, India's foreign exchange reserves continued to be at acomfortable level and consistent with the rate of growth, the share of external sector inthe economy and the size of risk-adjusted capital flows. Following is the table shows thetrend of foreign reserves held by central bank in last FY. Reserves came down cause of recession all over the world however India still able to maintain its reserves hence aminor fall was seen compare to all other country which shows great strength in long-termfor Indian Economy. Increase in Exports specially from auto industry shows anexpectations of huge income from western countries and new $200 bl. target for exports by 2011 helps in increasing.

Note:1.FCA (Foreign Currency Assets): FCAs are maintained as a multicurrency portfolio comprising ajor

currencies, such as, US dollar, Euro, Pound sterling, Japanese yen, etc. and is valued in terms of US dollars.2. SDR (Special Drawing Rights): Values in SDR have been indicated in parentheses.3. Gold: Physical stock has remained unchanged at approximately 357 tonnes.4. RTP refers to the Reserve Tranche Position in the IMF.

Export

Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), automobile sales (including passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles, two-wheelers and three-wheelers) in theoverseas markets increased to 1.53 million units in 2008-09 from 1.23 million units in

2007-08. Export of passenger vehicles increased from 218,401 in 2007-08 to 335,739units in 2008-09.

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There is a continuous increase in the export of automobiles since the financial year 2002-03, except for the decline in the export of commercial vehichles in the financial year

2008-09, which may be attributed to the global economic recession.Despite recession, the Indian automobile market continues to perform better than most of the other industries in the economy in coming future, more and more MNC’s coming inIndia to setup their ventures which clearly shows the scope of expansion.Current Scenario of Automobile Industry in EconomyWith the latest available data Indian Automobile Industry is expected to grow at 9%-10%in near future, Two wheeler segment sales grew up by 12.8% with the modest 2.6%growth rate, under this segment the market leader Hero Honda registered growth of 12%in its domestic sales where as Bajaj Auto disappointed as sales plunging by 23%, on theother hand car sales has been grew up by a healthy 22.7% in last February andCommercial Vehicles reported slower sales. It is assumed that in coming festive season

to meet demand, carmakers going to produce 70000units/month more over the average1.3lac/month with help of 5000 new hands. Source: Economic Times

Indian Automobile Industry at Global level:

• India ranks 1st in the global two-wheeler market

• India is the 4th biggest commercial vehicle market in the world

• India ranks 11th in the international passenger car market

• India ranks 5th pertaining to the number of bus and truck sold in the world

• India is the second largest tractor manufacturer in the world.

Volkswagen, Toyota, Nissan & Ford plan new cars to cash in on fastest-growingcompact car section of car market in India. Source: Economic Times Sales of different Auto Companies speed up even before festive season Maruti by 29%,TATA by 11%,Skoda Auto 33%, Hero Honda 33%, Mahindra 42%, Yamaha 63% etc.

Source: Economic Times(3/09/09)It is expected that the Automobile Industry in India would be the 7th largest automobile

market within the year 2016.

Projected Growth rate in Automobile Industry

• Passenger vehicle sales in the country will grow at a CAGR of 12 per cent totouch 3.75 million units by 2014.

• The domestic two-wheeler sales will grow at a CAGR of 8.8% by 2014 at 11.3million units.

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• To emerge as the destination of choice in the world for design and manufactureof automobiles and auto components with output reaching a level of US$ 145 billion accounting for more than 10% of the GDP and providing additional

employment to 25 million people by 2016.

In short, the Indian economy is exhibiting strong fundamentals and displaying

considerable resilience. At the same time, there are continuing signs of demand

pressures, especially high credit growth, that could exert upward pressure on prices when

associated with supply shocks such as from oil. These pressures have the potential for

impacting stability and inflation expectations. While domestic developments continue to

dominate the economy, global factors tend to gain more attention now than before. The

global outlook for growth is positive but downside risks in regard to inflation also RBI is

applying new repo and reverse repo for the balance of inflation and monetary policies.

The following are macroeconomic policies, generally found as part of government-

directed industrial auto policies

(a) Restrictions on domestic and foreign investment.

(b) Domestic content requirements

(c) High tariff walls

(d) Auto export requirements

(e) National production to sales ratios

(f) Distribution controls

(g) Quotas and licensing requirements that significantly restrict imports

(h) Government approval for product related decisions, including vehicle make,

body type, engine size, etc.

(i) Special government categories for auto taxes

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II INDUSTRY ANALYSIS

Since, 1991 opening of the economy has changed the face of auto industry. Today, it is

amongst the main drivers of growth of Indian economy with an output multiplier of

2.24(for every Re.1 invested, auto sector gives back Rs.2.24 to the economy). In recent

years we have seen increasing number of global players entering Indian market by way

of Joint ventures, collaborations or wholly owned subsidiary

The automobile industry is torn between trying to reduce costs on the one hand and, on

the other, dealing with the high price of performance-enhancing technology and

environmental compliance. Key drivers in the automotive industry are:

• Reducing air pollution

• Reduction of weight

• Recyclability

• Safety

• Better performance and engine efficiency

• Aesthetics

• Longer service Life

INDUSTRY LIFE CYCLE:

The automobile market is at the maturity stage of the life cycle, locally and globally, due

to an increased number of competitors from domestic and foreign markets. The

automobile market is characterized by a low potential for market growth, but high sales

and profit potential as the products have still not saturated the market as a whole.

31




MAJOR COMPETITORS OF TATA MOTORS ARE

Maruti Udyog Ltd.

General Motors India

Ford India Ltd.

Eicher Motors

Bajaj Auto

Hero Motors

Hindustan Motors

Hyundai Motor India Ltd.

Royal Enfield Motors

Telco

TVS Motors

FINANCIALS :

32




Balance sheet Mar ' 09 Mar ' 08 Mar ' 07 Mar ' 06 Mar ' 05

Sources of funds

Owner's fund

Equity share capital 514.05 385.54 385.41 382.87 361.79

Share application money - - - - -

Preference share capital - - - - -

Reserves & surplus 11,855.15 7,428.45 6,458.39 5,127.81 3,749.60

Loan fundsSecured loans 5,251.65 2,461.99 2,022.04 822.76 489.81

Unsecured loans 7,913.91 3,818.53 1,987.10 2,114.08 2,005.61

Total 25,534.76 14,094.51 10,852.94 8,447.52 6,606.81

Uses of funds

Fixed assets

Gross block 13,905.17 10,830.83 8,775.80 7,971.55 6,611.95

Less : revaluation reserve 25.07 25.51 25.95 26.39 -

Less : accumulated depreciation 6,259.90 5,443.52 4,894.54 4,401.51 3,454.28

Net block 7,620.20 5,361.80 3,855.31 3,543.65 3,157.67Capital work-in-progress 6,954.04 5,064.96 2,513.32 951.19 538.84

Investments 12,968.13 4,910.27 2,477.00 2,015.15 2,912.06

Net current assets

Current assets, loans & advances 10,836.58 10,781.23 10,318.42 9,812.06 7,248.88

Less : current liabilities & provisions 12,846.21 12,029.80 8,321.20 7,888.65 7,268.80

Total net current assets -2,009.63 -1,248.57 1,997.22 1,923.41 -19.92

Miscellaneous expenses not written 2.02 6.05 10.09 14.12 18.16

Total 25,534.76 14,094.51 10,852.94 8,447.52 6,606.81

Notes:

Book value of unquoted investments 12,358.84 4,145.82 2,117.86 1,648.57 2,480.15

Market value of quoted investments 558.32 2,530.55 1,323.08 1,550.00 1,260.05

Contingent liabilities 5,433.07 5,590.83 5,196.07 2,185.63 1,450.32

33




Mar ' 09 Mar ' 08 Mar ' 07 Mar ' 06 Mar ' 05

Number of equity sharesoutstanding(Lacs)

5140.08 3855.04 3853.74 3828.34 3617.52

Opportunities and Threats

a) Opportunities

● Road Development: The ongoing road development program would improve

connectivity to ports, cities and villages through a network of highways and

interconnecting roads by 2010-11. Improved road network would help in faster

movement of goods between various cities and towns. The Company launched TATA

Novus range of vehicles in the heavy segment and TATA ACE for last mile distribution.

● Car penetration in India: Car penetration in India is 7 cars per 1,000 persons.

b) Threats

● Global Competition: India is increasingly attracting global players to set up

manufacturing facility for producing cars, especially small cars. Global automobile

manufacturers are also entering India in commercial vehicle segment to leverage India’s

low cost production advantage to their favor.

● Fuel Prices: The continuing fuel price increase in the domestic market could

significantly impact demand of commercial and passenger vehicles.

34




● Input costs: Commodity items particularly steel, non-ferrous metals, rubber and

engineering plastics have witnessed huge price increases in the past. These prices are

expected to increase further affecting the Company’s profitability.

● Interest rate hardening and other inflationary trends: With interest rates hardening and

liquidity crunch in the system, growth in sales may be adversely impacted.

● Government Regulations: Stringent emission and safety requirements could bring new

complexities for automotive and component manufacturers impacting the Company’s

business.

Risks and Concerns:

● Interest Rates: FY 2008-09 started with increasing interest rate regime and tightening

liquidity position in the economy. Increasing interest rates could further affect vehicle

demand which could have an adverse impact on the Company’s revenues and profits.

● Exchange rates: The Company exports vehicles to many countries and exchange rate

fluctuations in the order execution period could impact the Company’s business.

● Domestic market: The Company plans to reduce the impact of this cyclicality on its

business, by strengthening its less cyclical businesses like buses, light trucks, small

commercial vehicles.

● Overseas market: In overseas markets, the Company competes with global players

which have multiple vehicle platforms, large financial capability and global branding.

● Manufacturing: The Company manufactures vehicles at multiple locations and given

the geographical dispersion of its suppliers it faces Logistics Problems.

● New Competition: Competitive activity is expected to increase in commercial vehicle

and passenger vehicle domestic market in coming years.

● New projects: The Company currently is in midst of executing many new projects

ranging from launch of new car platforms to development of new Truck models.

35




III Company Analysis

Key Highlights

Symbol: TTL

Sector: Consumer Goods

Industry: Auto Manufacturers Major

Market Cap: 4.65B(29th Aug)

Data Since: 1945

Last close: Rs

Brief summary of the company

Tata Motors Limited is India’s largest automobile company, reported gross revenue(stand-alone) of Rs.28599.27 crores (2007-08: Rs.33093.93 crores) in 2008-09, a year marked by severe demand contraction in the automobile industry. Revenues (net of excise) for the year were Rs. 25660.79 crores compared to Rs.28739.41 crores in 2007-08, a decline of 10.7%. The Profit before Tax was Rs.1013.76 crores compared to

Rs.2576.47 crores in 2007-08, a decline of 60.7%. The Profit after Tax for the year wasRs.1001.26 crores compared to Rs.2028.92 crores, a decline of 50.7%.

It is the leader in commercial vehicles in each segment, and among the top three in passenger vehicles with winning products in the compact, midsize car and utility vehiclesegments. The company is the world’s fourth largest truck manufacturer, and the world’ssecond largest bus manufacturer.

More than 3 million Tata vehicles ply on Indian roads making Tata a dominant force in

the Indian automobile industry.

Joint Venture with Fiat and Hitachi

36




Tata Motors has decided to enter into a 50-50 JV with Fiat, at Pune, for manufacturing

passenger vehicles, engines and transmissions for both, domestic and international

markets.. The Company has also entered into a JV with Hitachi, to set up a new plant in

Kharagpur

Product Mix

Tata Motors is India's only fully integrated automobile manufacturer with a portfolio that

covers trucks, buses, utility vehicles and passenger cars. It would be no exaggeration to

say that Tata Motors provides the wheels for India's growth.

Plants

Tata Motors owes its leading position in the Indian automobile industry to its strong

focus on indigenisation. Their manufacturing plants are situated at Jamshedpur in the

East, Pune in the West and Lucknow in the North.

Share holding pattern as on 31-Mar

Profit and los s Mar 2009Mar 2008Mar 2007Mar 2006Mar 2005Mar 2004

Rs.Cr Rs.Cr Rs.Cr Rs.Cr Rs.Cr Rs.Cr

INCOME :Sales Turnover 28292.56 32885.03 31611.2123673.43 20152.03 15165.85

37




Excise Duty 2877.53 4347.04 4425.44 3380.13 3063.44 2270.30 Net Sales 25415.03 28537.99 27185.77 20293.30 17088.59 12895.55Other Income 1369.90 996.05 574.11 693.92 560.29 427.79

Stock Adjustments -238.04 -40.48 349.68 256.91 144.00 -141.98Total Income 26546.89 29493.56 28109.56 21244.13 17792.88 13181.36EXPENDITURE :Raw Materials 18398.94 20190.19 19374.9314263.86 11929.48 8341.39Power & Fuel Cost 304.94 325.19 327.41 258.51 237.81 214.52Employee Cost 1539.26 1534.41 1361.20 1141.48 1037.93 879.49Other ManufacturingExpenses

1300.24 1396.22 1618.68 1251.02 1017.11 722.95

Selling and AdministrationExpenses

1350.93 1298.67 1322.88 985.74 795.03 645.73

Miscellaneous Expenses 1869.40 1838.72 1153.53 784.56 673.78 644.75

Less: Pre-operative ExpensesCapitalised 916.02 744.23 577.05 308.85 218.13 144.89

Total Expenditure 23847.69 25839.17 24581.58 18376.32 15473.01 11303.94Operating Profit 2699.20 3654.39 3527.98 2867.81 2319.87 1877.42Interest 810.90 425.61 368.51 293.49 217.81 202.48Gross Profit 1888.30 3228.78 3159.47 2574.32 2102.06 1674.94Depreciation 874.54 652.31 586.29 520.94 450.16 382.60Profit Before Tax 1013.76 2576.47 2573.18 2053.38 1651.90 1292.34Tax 0.00 139.01 476.00 363.35 363.82 96.00Fringe Benefit tax 15.00 7.00 6.50 19.00 0.00 0.00Deferred Tax -2.50 401.54 177.22 142.15 51.13 386.00Reported Net Profit 1001.26 2028.92 1913.46 1528.88 1236.95 810.34

Extraordinary Items 531.63 149.49 37.40 145.42 24.77 -29.95Adjusted Net Profit 469.63 1879.43 1876.06 1383.46 1212.18 840.29Adjst. below Net Profit 15.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00P & L Balance broughtforward

1383.07 1013.83 776.76 585.60 365.80 123.71

Statutory Appropriations 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Appropriations 713.63 1659.68 1676.39 1337.72 1017.15 568.25P & L Balance carried down 1685.99 1383.07 1013.83 776.76 585.60 365.80Dividend 311.61 578.43 578.07 497.94 452.19 282.11Preference Dividend 0.00 0.00 0.00 19.94 0.00 0.00Equity Dividend % 60.00 150.00 150.00 130.00 125.00 80.00

Earnings Per Share-Unit Curr 21.50 50.52 47.10 37.59 32.44 21.93Earnings Per Share(Adj)-UnitCurr

21.50 48.93 45.61 36.40 31.42 21.24

Book Value-Unit Curr 269.88 202.68 177.57 143.93 113.64 101.69

38




39




Financial highlights

Mar ' 09 Mar ' 08 Mar ' 07 Mar ' 06Mar '

05

Profitability ratios

Operating margin (%) 6.71 10.53 9.70 10.68 11.62

Gross profit margin (%) 3.30 8.26 7.50 8.09 9.01

40




Mar ' 09 Mar ' 08 Mar ' 07 Mar ' 06Mar '

05

Net profit margin (%) 3.77 6.96 6.94 7.35 7.02

Leverage ratios

Long term debt / Equity 0.49 0.49 0.31 0.41 0.59

Total debt/equity 1.06 0.80 0.58 0.53 0.60

Fixed assets turnover ratio 1.88 2.69 3.08 2.55 2.62

Liquidity ratiosCurrent ratio 0.84 0.89 1.24 1.24 0.99

Current ratio (inc. st loans) 0.43 0.64 0.85 1.07 0.98

Quick ratio 0.58 0.66 0.91 0.96 0.76

Inventory turnover ratio 13.47 14.44 13.26 12.63 14.06

Payout ratios

Dividend payout ratio (net profit) 34.52 32.51 35.34 37.13 41.68

Dividend payout ratio (cash profit) 17.94 24.02 26.16 26.73 29.39

Earning retention ratio 62.49 60.13 59.90 58.31 58.18

Cash earnings retention ratio 81.29 72.18 71.32 70.98 70.54

41




RATIO ANALYSIS

EPS measures the profit available to the equity shareholders per share, that is, theamount that they can get on every share held. Till 2008 both the companies had arising EPS but in 2009 both of them fall and the effect more on Tata motors as they bought two brands Ford Motors and fall in sales results in low EPS. But as trend

shows TATA motors have potential so an shareholder expect better in future.

EPS = Net income - Dividends on Preferred stock

average outstanding shares

42




43




44




45




46




47




48

The trend shows that Tata’s net profit margin is quite stable until it falls to 3.77 in 2009.While the net profit of India’s no.1 car manufacturer Maruti Suzuki shows a negativetrend from 2007 onwards. But the future prospect for both the company’s profit is higher.Profit margins come down as recession hits economy badly hence sales get reduced andcost get increased very much.

Net profit Ratio= (Net profit) × 100(Net sales)




49

A high debt to equity ratio suggests that a company has financed its growthmostly via debt. We see that the debt –equity ratio of TATA motors is veryhigh compared to that of Maruti. It means that a lot of debt is used byTATA’s to finance its increased operations. Sometimes the cost of the debtfinancing may outweigh the return that the company generates on the debtthrough investment and business activities and can lead to bankruptcy.Maruti is going very swiftly in this field.




The quick ratio is a very stringent measure of solvency. A general rule of thumb suggeststhat the quick ratio should be around 1. Maruti is always showing a positive trend as itsratio is always greater than 1 except in 2008, while TATA motors was doing good till2007, but the performance decreased from 2008 onwards as shortage of cash was there

and current liabilities and provision increased by Rs800Cr.

Tata motors and Maruti Suzuki both the companies showed a positive trend in payingdividends till 2008, but the scenario changed in 2009 as both the company’s dividend per share fell. According to graph TATA’s dividend was much higher than that of Maruti, italways provided dividend of above 10 per share to its shareholders while maruti stick to below 5 per share, even though the fall in dividend in 2009, still both the companies are

earning good profit.

Dividend Per Share= Total amount of dividend/ share outstanding

50




2) HPCL

Globalization and the Indian Petroleum Industry

Indian petroleum industry in the post independent period (1947-2001) it may be divided

into three distinct phases

• (i) early phase (1947 to 1969)- when the government consolidated its control over

the industry with Soviet assistance;

• (ii) development phase (1970 to 1989)- in this period the US companies played

dominant role replacing the Soviets and

• (iii) the economic liberalisation phase of 1990s.

PORTER’S MODEL

51




Barriers to entry: We believe that barriers to entry are high for the industry. Following are

factors that vindicate this view.

1. Economies of scale: As far the sector dynamics goes, scale of operations does matter.

Benefits from economies of scale are derived in the form of better bargaining power when it

comes to sourcing of raw materials, ability to use various crude products for a given output and

selling the end product to the consumers. Refining is highly capital intensive in nature (Reliance

is setting up a 29.4 MMT refinery in India for a sum of Rs 270 bn or Rs 9,200 m per MT). While

the cost of this refinery is lower than industry standards, this is the benefit of a larger size

complex refinery.

In addition to the refining capacity, companies should have presence on the marketing side as

well so as to capture marketing margins (in a completely de-regulated environment). Though the

current government policy is unfavorable towards the marketing companies (which are forced to

subsidise the customers on behalf of the government), globally, companies with presence in

refining and marketing are able to increase/decrease prices driven purely by business

environment. Even in the high crude price scenario like what we are witnessing currently, global

integrated players are making profits. In India, currently, IOC, HPCL, BPCL, ONGC and RIL

account for a lion’s share of the industry’s refining capacity. In this sense, the sector is fairly

consolidated.

52




2. Capital requirement: As mentioned earlier, refining is a capital-intensive business. The costs

associated with establishing a refining is in the vicinity of Rs 9,000 m to Rs 10,000 m per MT

(depending on the complexity of the refinery). Also, a presence on the marketing front requires

investments worth Rs 2 bn as per government regulations. Further, to establish retail outlets, it

costs roughly Rs 15 m to Rs 20 m per outlet (depending upon the location). Even if one has the

capital to set up the marketing network, , space is unavailable in many larger cities (another entry

barrier). Also, integrated players need to shell out money in building pipeline facility, which costs

around Rs 15 m per kilometer.

3. Government policy: Considering the current policy environment, perhaps, this is ‘the’ major

entry barrier for companies (especially those with a marketing network plan). The government

plays an active and integral role in policy determination, especially when it comes to pricing of

petroleum products. Even though the energy sector was supposed to have been deregulated in

April 2002, much has been on paper with very little implementation. Thus, regulations act as

deterrent to new entrants.

Bargaining power of buyers: Currently high due to the government policy (indirectly). As far as

the sale of refined products is concerned, either the refineries sells it directly (to the industrial

sector and marketing companies) or through their own distribution networks. Exports are also an

opportunity.

As far as the industrial sector is concerned, the bargaining power of refineries is less. This is

because prices in this segment are internationally benchmarked (the sector is de-regulated at therefinery gate level).

As far as the revenues from the marketing network are concerned, currently, diesel, petrol, LPG

and kerosene are subsidised. Government decides the pricing of these products and therefore,

the bargaining power of consumers is high (indirectly, owing to the vote bank). Subsidised

products account for 70% of total industry sales. As far as exports are concerned, margins are

lower.

Bargaining power of suppliers: High. The major raw material for the sector is crude oil (90% of

total cost), prices of which are determined by global demand-supply factors (OPEChas a major

say in determining global crude prices). Since India imports 70% of its total crude requirement,

that too largely Brent crude, bargaining power is close to ‘nil’ (unless there are specific

government-to-government arrangements).

53




Competition: Moderate in refining. Currently, demand outpaces supply, which can be seen from

higher capacity utilization across the board. The balance is in favor of producers. Competition is

high on the marketing front.

Threat of Substitutes: Moderate to low. Though much has been talked about bio-fuels and fuel

cell-based technologies, these are still not a meaningful threat to petroleum products, especially

petrol and diesel. At the same time, higher natural gas finds (in India and liquefied natural gas

transported from Middle East) is threatening the demand for naphtha and furnace oil in India (the

substitution effect has been significant in the past three years).

Conclusion

Viewing all the aforesaid factors in conjunction with the global scenario, we believe that refining

margins are likely to be higher going forward. That said, considering the capacity expansion in

India in the next five years, supply is likely to far outpace demand, thus forcing players to depend

on exports to maintain capacity utilisation at optimum level (some of the expansions are

dedicated for exports). On the other hand, growth prospects of marketing companies are bleak,

based on the current government policy regime.

SWOT ANALYSIS

STRENGHS

• Favourable production – sale mix.

• Entry on petrochemicals and gas sector will reduce dependence on R&M sector.

• Second largest refining capacity and pipeline infrastructure in the industry.

• Good presence in high demand regions of west and north India.

54




WEAKNESSES

• Dependence on refining function high.

• Moderate share in high profitable retail segment.

• Diversifications in petrochemicals could trouble the company.

• High burden of subsidy loss on cooking gas and kerosene.

OPPORTUNITIES

• Per capita energy consumption low in country.

• Deficiency of coal will benefit oil and gas sector.

• Growing domestic market for gas.

• Overseas presence in upstream and downstream will determine growth.

THREATS

• Rising oil prices could dampen demand.

• High regulatory risk.

• Loss of market share to private players.

•Entrance of private players in pipelines will take away monopoly of company innorth India.

COMPANY ANALYSIS

The Annual Report is broken down into the following specific parts:

A) The Director's Report,B) The Auditor's Report,C) The Financial Statements, and

D) The Schedules and Notes to the Accounts..A.THE DIRECTOR’S REPORTThe Director’s Report is a report submitted by the directors of a company to itsshareholders, advising them of the performance of the company under their stewardship.Fundamental Analysis

55




B. THE AUDITOR'S REPORTThe auditor represents the shareholders and it is his duty to report to the shareholders andthe general public on the stewardship of the company by its directors

C. FINANCIAL STATEMENTSIt comprises of Balance Sheet, Profit and Loss account, Cash Flows. Its analysis would be discussed later.

D.SCHEDULESThe schedules detail pertinent information about the items of Balance Sheet and Profit &Loss Account. It also details information about sales, manufacturing costs,administration costs, interest, and other income and expenses

1. THE MANAGEMENT

HPCL is a public sector undertaking. Thus it is a professionally managed company.

There are some parameters of management on which a company is analysed :

a. integrity of management

b. past record of management

c. how highly is the management rated by its peers in the same industry

d. how the management fares in adversity

e. the depth of the knowledge of managementf. open and innovative management

on all these parameters HPCL scores good.

1. COMPANY

Many times a company has made losses in the previous years but that does not mean

that the company is bad to invest. Thus many factors are studied while studying a

company.

a) perception of competitors

HPCL is the second largest petroleum company after IOCL. Thus it is a competitor

of IOCL and it is trying hard to compete with IOCL on every front. That is why now

it has decided to diversify itself in the oil exploration sector

56




b) company policies

As this is a PSU thus the policies are made by the government. The oil sector is one

which is highly regulated by government. Thus from time to time it is required to

watch out the various policies changed.

3. ANNUAL REPORT

The most primary and most important source of information about a company is its

Annual Report. This is prepared every year and distributed to its shareholders.

57




Ratio Analysis

3) HDFC BANK

The Indian banking industry: sector overview

With the economic growth picking up pace and the investment cycle on the way torecovery, the banking sector has witnessed a transformation in its vital role of intermediating between the demand and supply of funds

Public sector banks have been very proactive in their restructuring initiatives be it intechnology implementation or pruning their loss assets. Windfall treasury gains made inthe falling interest rate regime were used for writing off the doubtful and loss assets.

Retail lending (especially mortgage financing) formed a significant portion of the portfolio for most banks and they customized their products to cater to the diversedemands.

Apart from streamlining their processes through technology initiatives such as ATMs,telephone banking, online banking and web based products, banks also resorted to crossselling of financial products such as credit cards, mutual funds and insurance policies toaugment their fee based income.

PORTER’S FIVE FORCES MODEL FOR THE BANKING INDUSTRY

1) BARRIERS TO ENTRY :a. Economies of scale: Since the existing players in the market are well

established and already have a customer base, they are able to bear thecost of using the advantages of technology to their maximum advantage.

b. Capital requirement for entry:i. The Banking Regulation Act prescribes the minimum capital

requirements for a bank Moreover, banks have to maintain acapital adequacy ratio of 9% under the Basel I norms.

ii.Government has declared that the foreign banks will be permittedto establish their presence in India by way of setting up a wholly

58






b. Generic substitution: People who deposit their savings in banks caninvest their money in other sources like mutual funds, shares and other securities and life insurance schemes.

5) COMPETITIVE RIVALRY:

a. Extent of competitor balance: b. Market growth rates:.c. High Exit Barriers

PEST Analysis for Banking Industry.

1. Political factors-: The major factors affecting the banking sector are thefollowing.

Banking sector reforms – As per the RBI roadmap for reforms in the first stagefrom 2005 to 2009 foreign banks will be allowed to set up wholly ownedsubsidiaries as well as get greater freedom to set up new branches.Fulfilling the minimum priority sector credit -The government mandation of

fulfilling the minimum priority sector credit (of which 18 per cent is food credit)has forced the domestic banks to cater to this segment despite the low profitability and vulnerability of asset quality.Banks have also been allowed to set up Offshore Banking Units in SEZ’s

2. Economic factors -:

Basell II norms for the risk management in banking sector - The new BaselAccord has its foundation on three mutually reinforcing pillars. The first pillar iscompatible with the credit risk, market risk and operational risk. The second pillar gives the bank responsibility to exercise the best ways to manage the risk specific to that bank.Concurrently, it also casts responsibility on the supervisors to review and validate

banks’ risk measurement models. .

Consolidation and merger and acquisitions in the banking sector-. HDFC bank also acquired TIMES BANK in 2001 which increased its customer base by3 lakh customers.

60




Universal Banking has been introduced. ICICI Bank ,HDFCs closestcompetitor is already into Universal Banking so HDFC is also getting into it asnow it is providing retail banking and also depository facilities in the form of

demat account.

3. Social factors-

Big and growing middle class in India -: This has been a major factor in thegrowth of the retail loans like consumer loans in the form of home loans, car loans,education loans, auto loans etc. Retail loans have grown from 19% in FY’99 to51% FY’06.Consumer credit accounts for a meager 28.6 per cent of the country'sGDP and the buoyancy in the economy offers sufficient scope for it to grow.

Geographical and Cultural diversity- This is leading to a greater demand for financial products and customization by the customers.

4. Technical factors-

The Indian Financial Network (INFINET) was inaugurated in June 1999. It is basedon satellite communication using VSAT technology and would enable faster connectivity within the financial sector.

61




TOP FOREIGN REGIONAL BANKS COMPANIES BY MARKET CAP

Company Symbol Price Change Market Cap P/EBanco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria BBV 22.40 0.09% 75.96B 14.83

Lloyds TSB Group plc LYG 39.59 0.13% 55.45B 21.52

ABN AMR O Holding NV ABN 27.72 1.65% 52.45B 12.89

SanPaolo IMI SpA IMI 40.95 2.38% 32.40B N/A

Banco Bradesco S.A. BBD 31.22 1.51% 30.50B 10.10

HDFC Bank Ltd. HDB 55.58 0.79% 5.83B 30.04

62

Qtr. over Qtr. EPS Growth Rate

FY (03/09)FY

(03/08)

FY (03/07)

1st Qtr -18% -9% ---

2nd Qtr 13% 5% 6%

3rd Qtr 15% 14% 18%

4th Qtr NA 12% 15%

Yr. over Yr. EPS Growth Rate

FY (03/09) FY (03/08)

1st Qtr 10% 31%

2nd Qtr 18% 29%

3rd Qtr 20% 25%

4th Qtr NA

Growth Rates % CompanyIndustr

y

S&P

500

Sales (Qtr vs year ago qtr) 63.90 1.70 -9.20

Net Income (YTD vs YTD) NA -5.80 -5.30

Net Income (Qtr vs year ago qtr) 44.80 10.60 -11.40

Sales (5-Year Annual Avg.) 39.94 19.49 13.14

Net Income (5-Year Annual Avg.) 30.21 19.59 12.68

Dividends (5-Year Annual Avg.) 23.16 8.95 11.74

http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/industry/leaf/4/2/*http:/finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=LYG

http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/industry/leaf/4/3/*http:/finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=ABN

http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/industry/leaf/4/4/*http:/finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=IMI

http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/industry/leaf/4/5/*http:/finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=BBD

http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/industry/leaf/4/6/*http:/finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=HDB

http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/industry/leaf/4/6/*http:/finance.yahoo.com/q?s=HDB

http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/industry/leaf/4/2/*http:/finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=LYG

http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/industry/leaf/4/3/*http:/finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=ABN

http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/industry/leaf/4/4/*http:/finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=IMI

http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/industry/leaf/4/5/*http:/finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=BBD



http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/industry/leaf/4/6/*http:/finance.yahoo.com/q?s=HDB




Company Analysis : HDFC Bank (HDB)

Key Highlights

Symbol: HDBSector: FinancialIndustry: Foreign Regional BanksMarket Cap: 43882 Cr Data Since: 2002-01-02Last close: 1710Full time employees: 9030

The Housing Development Finance Corporation Limited (HDFC) was

amongst the first to receive an ‘in principle’ approval from the Reserve

Bank of India (RBI) to set up a bank in the private sector, as part of the

RBI’s liberalization of the Indian Banking Industry. It was incorporated in

August 1994 in the name of ‘HDFC Bank Limited’ , with its registered

office in Mumbai. HDFC began operations as a Scheduled Commercial

Bank in January 1995.

Balance Sheet HDFCRs. Cr

Period &

months2009/03 2008/03 2007/03 2006/03 2005/03

SOURCES OF FUNDS

Owned Funds

Equity ShareCapital

284.45 284.03 253.00 249.56 249.12

ShareApplicationMoney

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

PreferentialShare Capital

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Reserves &Surplus

12,852.94 11,663.31 5,298.39 4,218.77 3,633.99

Loan Funds

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Secured Loans 55,180.08 51,736.68 39,668.70 31,344.00 25,609.12

UnsecuredLoans

28,676.00 17,414.54 17,524.33 15,377.35 11,038.28

TOTAL 96,993.47 81,098.56 62,744.42 51,189.68 40,530.50

USES OF FUNDS

Fixed Assets

Gross Block 493.85 488.57 493.10 515.37 567.86

AccumulatedDepreciation

290.45 280.07 280.03 268.06 273.02

Less:RevaluationReserve

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Net Block 203.41 208.49 213.07 247.31 294.85

Capital Work-in-progress

0.00 40.40 16.02 31.60 54.51

Investments 10,468.75 6,915.01 3,666.23 3,876.34 3,130.04

Net Current Assets

Current Assets,Loans &Advances

91,036.66 77,310.27 61,730.73 49,304.18 39,071.85

Less: CurrentLiabilities &Provisions

4,715.35 3,375.61 2,881.63 2,269.74 2,020.75

Total NetCurrent Assets

86,321.31 73,934.66 58,849.09 47,034.43 37,051.10

MiscellaneousExpenses notwritten off

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

TOTAL 96,993.47 81,098.56 62,744.42 51,189.68 40,530.50

Number of Equity sharesoutstanding(Cr.)

28.45 28.40 25.30 24.96 24.91

Bonuscomponent inEquity Capital

121.96 121.96 121.96 121.96 121.96

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Notes:

Book Value of UnquotedInvestments

8,282.75 4,714.44 3,084.50 3,340.81 1,423.74

Market Valueof QuotedInvestments

5,942.80 8,554.84 4,778.37 4,270.17 3,418.12

Contingentliabilities

279.03 450.29 305.37 559.04 264.69

How fast is the company growing?

Companies are judged by their sales and earnings growth rates than on the absolutevalue of their sales and earnings. Look for companies that consistently grow faster than there peers.

Year 2009/032008/0

3

2007/

03

2006

/032005/03

Sales 10,994.79 8,176.355,875.5

0

4,264

.213,399.88

Var % 34.47 39.16 37.79 25.42

Profit After Tax

2,282.54 2,436.251,570.38

1,257.30

1,036.59

Var % -6.31 55.14 24.90 21.29

How profitable is the company?

Investors prefer companies that increase profit margins -- the percentage of sales that they keep -- every year. This is accomplished either by lowering expenses or raising prices. Look for companies that consistently find ways tosqueeze more profits out of sales than their peers.

Year 2009/03 2008/03 2007/03 2006/03 2005/03

Profit After Tax

2,282.54 2,436.25 1,570.38 1,257.30 1,036.59

Var %-6.31 55.14 24.90 21.29

Year 2009/03 2008/03 2007/03 2006/03 2005/03

OPM (%) 96.82 96.34 95.84 95.05 94.84

65




Var % 0.50 0.52 0.83` 0.22

Step4 : How is the company's financial health?

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67

The financial health of a company is dependent on acombination of profitability, short-term liquidity and long termliquidity. Companies, which are profitable, but have poor shortterm or long term liquidity measures, do not survive the troughsof the trade cycle. Also firms, which are not profitable but arecash rich, do not survive in the long term either. Such companiesare taken over for their cashflow or by others who believe thatthey can improve the profitability of the business. Thus, thosecompanies that do succeed and survive over the long term have

a well-rounded financial profile, and perform well in all aspects of financial analysis.Profitability ratios reflects the businessenvironment of the time.

The key profitability ratios are:

Short-term liquidity is the ability of the company to meet its short-term financial commitments. Short-term liquidity ratios measurethe relationship between current liabilities and current assets.Current assets are stocks and work-in-progress, debtors andcash that would normally be re-circulated to pay currentliabilities. The ideal ratio 1:1. But a very high ratio indicates thatthe company is unable to manage its cash properly.The key short-term liquidity ratios are:

Long term liquidity or gearing is concerned with the financialstructure of the company. Long term liquidity ratios measure theextent to which the capital employed in the business has beenfinanced either by shareholders through share capital andretained earnings, or through borrowing and long-term finance.Highly geared companies are risky. Look for a balance.The key long-term liquidity ratios are:

Return on Total Assets (ROTA) 2.50%

Return on capital employed (ROCE) 2.35%

Net profit margin 20.71%

CurrentRatio

19.31

QuickRatio

19.25

GearingRatio

99.66%

InterestCover

0.30




LIMITATIONS

Like all studies based on samples, this study also suffers from some limitations.

1. As the study depends on human perceptions so there are chances of study getting biased.

2 Error due to some oversight or misinterpretation.3 The scope of study was limited due to some constraints.4. Any other error which could have crept in the course of the Project.

CHAPTER-6

CONCLUSION

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CONCLUSION

RECOMMENDATIONS:

1) TATA MOTORS- At current market price , we should buy the share because of thefollowing reasons:

Since, 1991 opening of the economy has changed the face of auto industry. Today, it isamongst the main drivers of growth of Indian economy with an output multiplier of

2.24(for every Re.1 invested, auto sector gives back Rs.2.24 to the economy).Tremendous Growth -Tata Motors has decided to enter into a 50-50 JV with Fiat, at

Pune, for manufacturing passenger vehicles, engines and transmissions for both,domestic and international markets.. The Company has also entered into a JV withHitachi, to set up a new plant in Kharagpur

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2) HPCL:

Strengths:Favourable production – sale mix

Entry on petrochemicals and gas sector will reduce dependence on R&M sector

Second largest refining capacity and pipeline infrastructure in the industry

Good presence in high demand regions of west and north India

Growth potential:

Per capita energy consumption low in country

Deficiency of coal will benefit oil and gas sector

Growing domestic market for gas

Overseas presence in upstream and downstream will determine growth

3) HDFC BANK: Growing stock and its advisable to invest in this stock for long term.

HDFC bank acquired TIMES BANK in 2001 which increased its customer base by 3lakh customers.

Growth in net revenues of 42.2%. Net profit up by 32%. Total customer asset increased by 44.9%

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CHAPTER-7

GLOSSARY

71




CHAPTER-8

BIBLIOGRAPHY

72




BIBLIOGRAPHY

Sharekhan, “ Fundamental Analysis: Which Company?” (October, 2004)

WEBSITES:

www.tradingday.comwww.marketscreen.comwww.icicidirect.comwww.nseindia.comwww.investopedia.comwww.indiainfoline.comwww.economictimes.com

http://www.nseindia.com/

http://www.investopedia.com/

http://www.nseindia.com/

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