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d li h dEnergy and climate change towards COP21
6 October 20156 October 2015
Takashi HattoriHead of Environment & Climate Change Unit, IEA
© OECD/IEA 2015© OECD/IEA 2015
IEEJ:October 2015, All Rights Reserved.
IEA, energy, and climate change
The IEA’s 4 “E”sThe IEA s 4 E s• Energy security• Economic growth• Economic growth• Environmental sustainability• Engagement worldwide• Engagement worldwide
Energy production and use accounts for two‐thirdsof global greenhouse‐gas emissions
Energy sector must cut emissions, while poweringeconomic growth, boosting energy security &
© OECD/IEA 2015
increasing energy access
IEEJ:October 2015, All Rights Reserved.
Towards COP21
A major milestone in efforts to combat climate change is fast A major milestone in efforts to combat climate change is fastapproaching – COP21 in Paris in December 2015
Momentum is building:Momentum is building:• Historic US‐China joint announcements• Developed & developing countries are putting forward newDeveloped & developing countries are putting forward newpledges to reduce emissions
• Many energy companies & investors are starting to engagey gy p g g g• Pope Francis’ encyclical LAUDATO SI’
© OECD/IEA 2015Source: Brookings Institute Source: Business & Climate SummitSource: US Embassy
IEEJ:October 2015, All Rights Reserved.
Timeline
COP21ADP 2.1031 A 4 S
ADP 2.1119 23 O t
ADP 2.9June
ADP 2.8F b
COP20/ 30 Nov ‐ 11 Dec31 Aug ‐ 4 Sep 19‐23 OctJuneFebDec/14
Sep Oct Nov DecMay June July AugDec
IEA Ministerial
17 18 NovGHG Trading
CCXGSept
Compl Measures 17‐18 NovgWorkshop29‐30 Sept
WEO 2015ETP 2015 WEO
pWorkshop
22 June
Briefs:
10 Nov
Briefs:
May Special ReportJune
© OECD/IEA 2015
Briefs:1. Resilience2. Compl. Measures
Fall
Briefs:1. Key Messages2. Data supplement
Pre‐COP
IEEJ:October 2015, All Rights Reserved.
Emissions burden moves over time
Cumulative energy‐related CO2 emissions by regiongy 2 y g
500Gt
2015‐2040
1890‐2014300
400
1890 2014
200
100
Past emissions are important although the source of emissions
UnitedStates
European ChinaUnion
Russia Japan India Africa
© OECD/IEA 2015
Past emissions are important, although the source of emissions shifts with changes in the global economy
IEEJ:October 2015, All Rights Reserved.
National pledges build toward a global agreement, but are not enough…agreement, but are not enough…
40Gt
INDC Scenario
32
450 Scenario
16
24 450 Scenario
8
16
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
© OECD/IEA 2015
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
IEEJ:October 2015, All Rights Reserved.
What does the energy sector need from COP21?need from COP21?
The IEA proposal for COP21:The IEA proposal for COP21:1. Peak in emissions – set the conditions which will achieve
l k i l b l l t d i ian early peak in global energy‐related emissions
2. Five‐year revision – review contributions regularly, to testy g y,the scope to lift the level of ambition
3 L k i th i i t l t th t bli h d li t l3. Lock in the vision – translate the established climate goalinto a collective long‐term emissions goal
4. Track the transition – establish a process for trackingenergy sector achievements
© OECD/IEA 2015
IEEJ:October 2015, All Rights Reserved.
1. Peak in emissions: IEA strategy to raise climate ambitionIEA strategy to raise climate ambition
Global energy‐related GHG emissions Savings by measure, 2030
40
CO2‐eq INDC Scenario
Energy
Fossil‐fuelsubsidy reform
35GtC
Bridge Scenario
gyefficiency
Upstream methanereductions
15%
10%
30Bridge Scenario
49%
Renewablesinvestment
17%
25
Reducinginefficient coal
investment9%
Five measures shown in a “Bridge Scenario” achieve a peak in emissions
202000 2014 2020 2025 2030
© OECD/IEA 2015
Five measures – shown in a Bridge Scenario – achieve a peak in emissions around 2020, using only proven technologies & without harming economic growth
IEEJ:October 2015, All Rights Reserved.
2. Five‐year revision:World’s carbon budget is shrinking
World’s remaining carbon budget
World s carbon budget is shrinking
g g
Today 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
A five year review cycle would enable pledges to keep pace with energy sector
© OECD/IEA 2015
A five‐year review cycle would enable pledges to keep pace with energy sector innovation; building ambition before the carbon budget is consumed
IEEJ:October 2015, All Rights Reserved.
3. Lock in the vision:What more does it take for 2 °C?
Cost reductions & deployment of Cost reductions & deployment of
What more does it take for 2 C?
200
Million
electric vehicles400
r kWh
solar PV100
GW 2 500
er kW
100
150
M
200
300
Dollars per
60
80
1 500
2 000
Dollars pe
50
100
100
20040
20
1 000
500
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040Vehicle sales Battery costsCapacity Capital costs
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
TotalVehicle sales
An emissions goal would give greater clarity & certainty to the energy sector
Electric
Battery costsElectric vehicles(right axis)
Solar PV additions
Capacity Capital costsSolar PV(right axis)
Internal combustion
© OECD/IEA 2015
An emissions goal would give greater clarity & certainty to the energy sector, strengthening the case for RD&D investment & technology transfer
IEEJ:October 2015, All Rights Reserved.
4. Track the transition:Impact of pledges must be monitoredImpact of pledges must be monitored
Energy sector indicators are needed to track the low carbon transition;
© OECD/IEA 2015
Energy sector indicators are needed to track the low‐carbon transition; IEA identifies key metrics to monitor energy sector achievements
IEEJ:October 2015, All Rights Reserved.
Other key elements
Strengthen energy sector resilience toStrengthen energy sector resilience toclimate impacts
N F li b i f/ h t li &• Nexus Forum, policy brief/chapter, policy &measures database
Build partnerships to enhance globalimplementation• Engage non‐member countries implementingEngage non member countries, implementingagreements, etc.
© OECD/IEA 2015
IEEJ:October 2015, All Rights Reserved.
Timeline
COP21ADP 2.1031 A 4 S
ADP 2.1119 23 O t
ADP 2.9June
ADP 2.8F b
COP20/ 30 Nov ‐ 11 Dec31 Aug ‐ 4 Sep 19‐23 OctJuneFebDec/14
Sep Oct Nov DecMay June July AugDec
IEA Ministerial
17 18 NovGHG Trading
CCXGSept
Compl Measures 17‐18 NovgWorkshop29‐30 Sept
WEO 2015ETP 2015 WEO
pWorkshop
22 June
Briefs:
10 Nov
Briefs:
May Special ReportJune
© OECD/IEA 2015
Briefs:1. Resilience2. Compl. Measures
Fall
Briefs:1. Key Messages2. Data supplement
Pre‐COP
IEEJ:October 2015, All Rights Reserved.
120 INDCs, 147 countriesOver 87% of energy related GHGOver 87% of energy related GHG
Submitted INDCs (1 October)(1 October)
© OECD/IEA 2015
Submitted INDCs cover over 87% of energy‐related GHG emissions, with implications for future energy & emissions trends
IEEJ:October 2015, All Rights Reserved.
Analysis of INDCs
1. Goal type (absolute, BAU,single or multi‐year etc.)
2. Is the goal quantifiable?
3 Coverage (sectors gases)3. Coverage (sectors, gases)
4. Intention to usei t ti l k tinternational markets
5. Inventory methodologies
6. Accountingapproaches/assumptions
© OECD/IEA 2015
pp / p
IEEJ:October 2015, All Rights Reserved.
Japan: a closer look
INDC: 26% below 2013 by INDC: 26% below 2013 by2030U i h ll
100%
Coal
Unique challenges:• limited resources
60%
80%
Oil
• high energy prices• already high efficiency
40%
60%
LNG
Nuclear post‐Fukushima20%
40%
Nuclear
0%2010 2014 2030
Renewables
© OECD/IEA 2015
2010 2014 2030
IEEJ:October 2015, All Rights Reserved.
Energy, Climate Change & Environment 2014:Unlocking high‐emission assetsU oc g g e ss o assets
Chapter on policies and actions to“unlock” existing high‐emissionsassetsassets• Retirement of coal plant• Change dispatch of existing power plantg p g p p
fleet• Efficiency retrofit of coal plant
fi f l l f CCS• Retrofit of coal plant for CCS
E l f C d Chi UK US Examples from Canada, China, UK, US,EU
© OECD/IEA 2015
IEEJ:October 2015, All Rights Reserved.
Japan: a closer look
INDC: 26% below 2013 by INDC: 26% below 2013 by2030U i h ll
100%
Coal
Unique challenges:• limited resources
60%
80%
Oil
• high energy prices• already high efficiency
40%
60%
LNG
Nuclear post‐Fukushima20%
40%
Nuclear
0%2010 2014 2030
Renewables
© OECD/IEA 2015
2010 2014 2030
IEEJ:October 2015, All Rights Reserved.
Nuclear power can play a role in CO abatement & energy securityCO2 abatement & energy security
Share of energy demand met by domestic sources CO2 emissions avoided annually by nuclear powerand nuclear power in 2040
2.5Gt
1971‐2040
100%
1.5
2.0
60%
80%
0 5
1.0
20%
40%
0.5
1971 2020 20401980 2000
20%
China United European Japan KoreaStates
pUnion
p
Net importsIndigenous production & nuclearNuclear Indigenous production
© OECD/IEA 2015
IEEJ:October 2015, All Rights Reserved.
Nuclear power issues
Retirements of nuclear power capacity Spent nuclear fuel
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 20402013
1971‐2040: 705 thousand tonnes
50 United States EuropeanUnion
1001971‐2012
350 thousand tonnes1971‐2040
705 thousand tonnes
a Russia Korea150
200GW
38% of today’s capacity to retire
by 2040
JapanChina
Cana
daIndia
Other
200G
European Union United States Japan Others
© OECD/IEA 2015
By 2040, almost 200 reactors are retired & the amount of spent fuel doubles& the amount of spent fuel doubles
IEEJ:October 2015, All Rights Reserved.
Timeline
COP21ADP 2.1031 A 4 S
ADP 2.1119 23 O t
ADP 2.9June
ADP 2.8F b
COP20/ 30 Nov ‐ 11 Dec31 Aug ‐ 4 Sep 19‐23 OctJuneFebDec/14
Sep Oct Nov DecMay June July AugDec
IEA Ministerial
17 18 NovGHG Trading
CCXGSept
Compl Measures 17‐18 NovgWorkshop29‐30 Sept
WEO 2015ETP 2015 WEO
pWorkshop
22 June
Briefs:
10 Nov
Briefs:
May Special ReportJune
© OECD/IEA 2015
Briefs:1. Resilience2. Compl. Measures
Fall
Briefs:1. Key Messages2. Data supplement
Pre‐COP
IEEJ:October 2015, All Rights Reserved.
COP21 Programme
Two weeks: 30 Nov – 11 DecTwo weeks: 30 Nov 11 Dec Heads of State invited for opening 30 Nov Most Ministers will attend for second week High‐level segment likely Mon 7 – Wed 9 High‐level segment likely Mon 7 Wed 9 Lima‐Paris Action Agenda (LPAA) Theme Days
• e.g. resilience, transport, buildings, renewables, energy efficiency, innovation
© OECD/IEA 2015
IEEJ:October 2015, All Rights Reserved.
Proposed IEA activities at COP21
Key IEA‐led events:• Technical‐level IEA Day (3 Dec) – full day• High‐level IEA/ADB official side event (9 Dec)
Hi h l l bli (10 D )• High‐level public event (10 Dec)
Executive Director activities:• Side event, high‐level bilaterals, speaking engagements
IEA expert presentations and speaking engagements IEA expert presentations and speaking engagements IEA stand with publications
Activities and events in the Le Bourget Civil Society Space and cityof Paris
© OECD/IEA 2015
Web: IEA COP21 webpage and social media (www.iea.org/COP21)
IEEJ:October 2015, All Rights Reserved.
Potential role of Japan at COP?
Play a leading role in the negotiations as one of Play a leading role in the negotiations as one of the largest economies in the world, and a leader in energy efficiency and low carbon technology
Driving innovation and climate action globally
Role in emerging Asian markets?
© OECD/IEA 2015
IEEJ:October 2015, All Rights Reserved.
Timeline after COP
COP21ADP 2.1031 A 4 S
ADP 2.1119 23 O t 30 Nov ‐ 11 Dec31 Aug ‐ 4 Sep 19‐23 Oct
Sep Oct Nov Dec 2016 May
IEA Ministerial
17 18 NovGHG Trading ETP 2016
CCXGSept
CCXGMarch
17‐18 NovgWorkshop29‐30 Sept
May
WEO 2015 ECCE 2016Briefs:
1. Resilience2. Compl. Measures
10 Nov
Briefs:
ECCE 2016Spring
© OECD/IEA 2015
2. Compl. MeasuresFall 1. Key Messages
2. DataPre‐COP
IEEJ:October 2015, All Rights Reserved.
Energy, Climate Change & Environment 2016Environment 2016
Preliminary topics:Preliminary topics: Tracking the progress of the INDCs and the 2015 agreement Coal and climateCoal and climate Complementary approaches in i d /b iindustry/business Energy sector resilience to climate changegy g Electricity markets and climate policy
© OECD/IEA 2015
Energy and emissions data
IEEJ:October 2015, All Rights Reserved.
Complementary measures
lType Examples
Voluntary partnerships between businesses and government
• Voluntary programs and agreements(e g UK Climate Change Agreementsbusinesses and government (e.g. UK Climate Change Agreements,Japanese Voluntary Action Plan)
Government actions to influence state‐owned enterprises
• Investments and direct control(e.g. Chinese power, France EDF)
Private sector business action • Unilateral actions, business coalitions,partnerships with NGOs (e.g. renewableenergy targets, supply chain, efficientproducts, investor action)
© OECD/IEA 2015
IEEJ:October 2015, All Rights Reserved.
Complementary measures
January WorkshopJanuary Workshop• Country cases in energy efficiency programs, e.g. Japan
June Workshop/ d f l• Business/industry use of complementary measures
• 70+ attendees from government, industry, research, and NGO itiNGO communities
f i h / b i fi Information sheet / briefing Chapter in ECCE 2016
© OECD/IEA 2015
IEEJ:October 2015, All Rights Reserved.
Discussion
What is Japan’s role at COP21?What is Japan s role at COP21?
h i h f d What might Japan want out of COP21 andthe Agreement?
Takashi [email protected]
Head, Environment & Climate Change UnitSustainable Technology and Policy DirectorateInternational Energy Agency
© OECD/IEA 2015
International Energy Agency
IEEJ:October 2015, All Rights Reserved.
Contact :[email protected]