Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010

8/3/2019 Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010

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Monitoring the pulse of the

ENGINEERING*

profession


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Engineering Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018

Prism Economics and Analysis 2

Engineering Labour Market Tracking System

Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018Final Report, September 1, 2010

ReportOutline

ExecutiveSummary.....................................................................................................................4

1. BackgroundandIntroduction................................................................................................16

2. LabourMarketAssessments.................................................................................................22

A Canada.................................................................................................................................24

CivilEngineers Canada........................................................................................................27

Mechanical Engineers Canada..........................................................................................30

Electrical and Electronics Engineers Canada..................................................................33

Chemical Engineers Canada..............................................................................................36

Industrial and Manufacturing Engineers Canada...........................................................39

Petroleum Engineers Canada............................................................................................42

Aerospace Engineers Canada...........................................................................................45

Computer (except software engineers) Engineers Canada............................................48

All Other Engineers Canada..............................................................................................51

Total Engineers Canada.....................................................................................................55

B British Columbia................................................................................................................60

Total Engineers British Columbia.....................................................................................61

C Alberta................................................................................................................................64

Civil Engineers Alberta......................................................................................................65

Electrical, Mechanical and Chemical Engineers Alberta .................................................68

Petroleum Engineers Alberta...........................................................................................71

Other Engineers Alberta....................................................................................................74

D Saskatchewan....................................................................................................................81

TotalEngineers Saskatchewan............................................................................................82

E Manitoba.............................................................................................................................85

TotalEngineers Manitoba...................................................................................................86

F Ontario................................................................................................................................89

Civil Engineers Ontario......................................................................................................91


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Mechanical Engineers Ontario..........................................................................................94

Electrical and Electronics Engineers Ontario..................................................................

97

Industrial Engineers Ontario..........................................................................................100

All Other Engineers Ontario............................................................................................103

Engineers Total Ontario..................................................................................................106

GQuebec..............................................................................................................................110

CivilEngineersQuebec.....................................................................................................112

MechanicalEngineers Quebec..........................................................................................115

ElectricalEngineers Quebec..............................................................................................118

OtherEngineers Quebec...................................................................................................121

TotalEngineers

Quebec

....................................................................................................

124

HAtlanticCanada.................................................................................................................128

3. ConclusionsandImplications..............................................................................................132

*ThetermENGINEERINGisanofficialmarkheldbytheCanadianCouncilofProfessional

Engineers.


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ExecutiveSummary

EngineersCanadainitiatedasystemfortrackinglabourmarketsaspartoftheEngineeringand

TechnologyLabourMarketStudyin2008. Thetrackingsystemhasbeenupdatedin2010based

onneweconomic,industryanddemographicprojectionsandinputfromProvincialLabour

MarketInformationCommittees1.

Theanalysiscoverstwentysixseparateengineeringlabourmarketsandprovidesanassessment

ofconditionsthatwillassistindustrystakeholdersincluding:

Employersandrecruiters

Students,immigrantsandotherpotentialentrants

Facultyandmanagersofpostsecondaryprograms

Federalandprovincialgovernmentofficialsmanagingimmigrationandotherlabour

marketprograms

Provincialengineering

associations

TheEngineersCanadasystemtrackstrendsinlaboursupplyanddemandacrossrecenthistory

andaddsanewprojectionfrom2010to2018. Thesetrendscoveraperiodofgrowingsupply

earlyinthelastdecadeasasurgeofimmigrationarrived. Since2001immigrationhasdeclined

rapidlywhilegraduationsfromengineeringprogramshaveincreasedslowly. Overthisperiod

supplyhasslowlymoveddowntolineupwithdemand. Thisbalancewasinterruptedbythe

recessionin2009asjobcutsweakenedmarkets.

Mostmarketstrendbacktobalanceacrossthescenariofrom2010to2018. Keyexceptions

emergeforoccupationswherelabourrequirementsaredrivenbyolderageprofilesandhigh

levelsofretirementorwhereastrongeconomiccycleincreasesordecreasesemployment. This

reportdescribesthecomponentsofsupplyanddemandandprospectsforrecruitingandjob

search.

Thesystemisbasedonhistoricaldataandfuturescenariosfor:

Output,investmentandemploymentforengineeringintensiveprovincialindustries

Employmentinengineeringoccupations

GraduatesfromCanadianEngineeringAccreditationBoard(CEAB)programs

Immigration(permanentandtemporaryforeignworkers)byengineeringoccupations

Retirementandmortalityinengineers

Theprovincialmeasuresarecombinedintoemploymentdriversthatreflectthedistributionof

engineersacrossindustries. Eachdriverisbasedonprovincialeconomicconditionsacrossa

scenariofrom2010to2018. Thesedriversareprovidedfromeconomicforecastspreparedby

theCentreforSpatialEconomics.2

1These committees were organized and invited to comment on an early draft by; Association of

Professional Engineers and Geologists in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, New

Brunswick and Nova Scotia, Professional Engineers of Ontario, Ontario Society of Professional Engineers,

Ordre des Ingenieurs du Quebec, Reseau des Ingenieurs du Quebec.2See the C4SE January 2010 Provincial Economic Forecast, Centre for Spatial Economics


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Theannualchangeinemploymentisaddedtoretirementsandmortality(replacement

demands)toestimatechanginglabourrequirements. Theseestimatesarecomparedto

increasesinlaboursupplythroughgraduatesfrompostsecondaryprogramsandimmigration.

Excesssupplyisdefinedasthedifferencebetweensupplyandlabourrequirements.

Thesemeasuresarecombinedintoasummaryrankingonascalefrom1to5with1

representingaveryweakmarketand5atightmarket.

Rankings & Description

1Significantexcessofsupplyoverdemand

No difficulty in recruiting qualified engineering staff with 0-5 years or 5-10 years of Canadian

experience at established compensation norms within the local labour market.

2

ExcessofsupplyoverdemandNo difficulty in recruiting qualified engineering staff with 0-5 years or with 5-10 years of Canadian

experience at established compensation norms within the local or regional labour market. Thegeographic range of recruiting and the range of acceptable qualifications is broader than in 1.

3

ModeratesupplypressuresDifficulty in recruiting qualified engineering staff with more than 5 years of Canadian experience, withindustry or technology-specific skills, and with appropriate non-technical skills. The time required tofill these positions is typically longer than historic norms. Vacancies sometimes need to be re-posted.

Employers actively solicit applications from outside the local and regional labour market andreimburse applicants for travel expenses related to interviews, etc. Recruiting engineering staff with 0-5 years of Canadian experience poses fewer challenges.

4

SignificantsupplypressuresDifficulty across the board in recruiting qualified engineering staff in the local and regional labourmarket. It is normal practice to actively solicit applications from outside the local and regional labourmarket and to reimburse applicants for travel expenses related to interviews. Employers are generally

obliged to improve offered terms of compensation and to assist with re-location costs. Recruitmentdifficulties lead many employers to increase their use of third-party recruiters and to increase their

outsourcing of engineering and technology work to consultancies or staff the assignment withengineering workers from another region. There is a significant increase in the risk of project delaysand compensation-driven cost escalations.

5

SupplyconstraintsSystemic difficulty in recruiting qualified engineering staff. International recruiting is common amonglarge employers. There is widespread perception that the consulting sector is working at full capacity

and that there is little, if any, remaining scope to outsource engineering and technology work toqualified consultancies with a known track record.

RankingssummarizethefindingsfornationalmarketsandforBritishColumbia,Alberta,

Saskatchewan,Manitoba,Ontario,QuebecandAtlanticCanada.


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NationalFindings

ExhibitES1reportstherankingsfornineengineeringoccupations.

ExhibitES1LabourMarketRankingsNationalSummary

Labour MarketRankings -Summary

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Civil engineers 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

Mechanicalengineers

2 3 3 4 3 3 3 4 4 4

Electrical andelectronics

2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4

Chemical 2 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Industrial andManufacturing

2 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

Petroleum 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4

Aerospace 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4

Computer 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

All Other 2 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 3

Total Engineers 2 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 4 4

KeyPoints:

Therecessionweakenedmarketsin2009asjobcutsunderminedlabourrequirements.

OverallemploymentforengineersinCanadaregainslostgroundduring2010;returning

toprerecessionlevelsduring2011.

Amodestdropingraduationscombinedwithstablebutlowlevelsofimmigrationto

limittheriseinexcesssupplyin2009andbalancemarketsin2010

Astrongrecoveryinmanufacturingandrelatedactivityfrom2010to2014increases

employmentformechanical,electrical,chemical,industrialandotherdisciplines;

o Theavailable

workforce

in

industrial

and

manufacturing

engineering

was

reducedbyweakeningdemandsince2005andlargedeclinesinpermanent

immigrationoverthepastdecade.


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Labourrequirementsincreasemoderatelyinothersectors(e.g.government,

construction)later

in

the

scenario.

GraduationsfromCEABprogramswillrisein2011andthensustainhigherlevels;

meetingthelabourrequirementslaterinthescenario.

Datareliabilityisaconcernforsomesmallermarketsinparticularforpetroleum

engineers.

Retirementsandtheageprofileofeachworkforcedriveslabourrequirementslaterin

thescenario,

Levelsofimmigrationandgraduationestablishedinthe20082009periodarelikely

sufficienttobalancemarketsacrossthecomingdecade

Rankingsmeasuregeneralconditionsandmaynotreflecttightorweakconditionsfor

specificoccupations

and

regions.

Marketconditionswillvarydependingontheexperienceleveloftheengineer. Note

thatarankingof3signalsdifficultyrecruitingqualifiedengineerswithmorethan5

yearsofCanadianexperience.

Replacementdemandsrelatedtoretirementsinmanyoccupationswilladdtocurrent

challengesrecruitingexperiencedengineers.


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BritishColumbia

Exhibit#ES2reportstheresultsforallengineersasagroupinBritishColumbia. Limited

statisticalreliabilitypreventstrackingmoreindividualmarkets.

ExhibitES2 AllEngineers,BC

Labour MarketRankings

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

All Engineers 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4

Laggingimmigrationcombinedwithemploymentgrowthtotightenmarketsin2007.

Therecessionwassevereandexcesssupplyincreasedtoveryhighlevelsin2008and

2009.

Therecoverywillbestrongin2010and2011,absorbingunemployedand

underemployedengineers.

Immigrationcontinuestofallfasterthanthesteadyriseingraduates:

o Thelimitednumberofnewentrantswilltightenlabourmarketsduringthe

recovery.

Alberta

Exhibit#ES3reportstheresultsforallengineersasagroupinAlberta. Statisticalreliabilityand

independentestimatesallowtrackingforfourindividualmarkets.

ExhibitES3

All

Engineers,

Alberta


2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


Mechanical,Electrical,Chemical

2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Petroleum 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 3

All Other 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Total, All

Engineers2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3


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Therecessioncutjobsatthesametimeasimmigrationwasrisingandgraduationswere

nearrecord

levels.

Tightmarketsforcivilengineersreflectsteadyemploymentgrowth,theolderage

profileandhigherreplacementdemand.

Marketmeasuresforpetroleumengineersarelessreliablethanotheroccupations.

Balancedmarketswithrankingsof3areconsistentwithshorttermrecruitingchallenges

forspecializedskillsandexperience.

Saskatchewan

Exhibit#ES4reportstheresultsforallengineersasagroupinSaskatchewan. Limitedstatistical

reliabilityprevents

tracking

more

individual

markets.

ExhibitES4 AllEngineers,Saskatchewan


2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

All Engineers 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4

SaskatchewanhadoneofthestrongesteconomiesinCanadain2009and2010andthe

recessionhadamorelimitedimpactthere.

Significantemploymentgrowthandlowlevelsofimmigrationkeptlabourmarketstight

in

2009.

Largeindustrialandutilityprojectswillendin2012andmarketsmayweakenlaterin

thescenario.

Moderategrowthandasteadysupplyofnewentrantsmaintainbalancedmarketsover

theforecastperiod.


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Manitoba

Exhibit#ES5reportstheresultsforallengineersasagroupinManitoba. Limitedstatistical

reliabilitypreventstrackingmoreindividualmarkets.

ExhibitES5 AllEngineers,Manitoba


2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

All Engineers 2 3 3 3 4 3 3 4 4 4

Thesharpdeclineinmanufacturingemploymentin2009combinedwiththeabove

averagenumberofnewentrantsin2008resultedinaneasingofmarketconditionsin

2009.

Largeinvestmentsintheutilitiessectorstresstheprovinciallaboursupply,tightening

marketsin2010,andoverthemediumterm.

Asutilitysectorinvestmentswinddownin2014marketsreturntobalanceforthe

remainderoftheforecastperiod.


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Ontario

Exhibit#ES6reportstheresultsforallengineersasagroupinOntario. Statisticalreliabilityand

independentestimatesallowtrackingforfiveindividualmarkets

ExhibitES6AllEngineers,Ontario


2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


Mechanicalengineers

3 3 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4

Electrical andElectronics

2 3 3 4 4 3 3 4 4 4

Industrial and

Manufacturing 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

All Other 2 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3

Total, AllEngineers

2 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 4 4

Engineeringlabourmarketswerereturningtomorebalancedconditionsfrom2006to

2008;recoveringfromaninfluxofimmigrantsthatpeakedin2001.

Recessionin2008and2009weakenedmostmarkets.

Therecoveryisgenerallymodestandlabourrequirementsarenotgrowingrapidlyby

historicalstandards,but:

o Manufacturinggrowsoutofadeepslumpwithaperiodofstronginvestment.

o Thischangewillincreasedemandforengineersinrelatedfields.

Attheendofthescenario,from2014to2018,growthislimitedbutreplacement

demandsforretirementsriseandimmigrationisneededtosustainworkforcelevels.

o Retirementswilldominatelabourrequirementslaterinthescenarioandthis

willaggravatedifficultiesrecruitingexperiencedengineers.


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Quebec

Exhibit#ES7reportstheresultsforallengineersasagroupinQuebec. Statisticalreliabilityand

independentestimatesallowtrackingforfourindividualmarkets.

ExhibitES7AllEngineers,Quebec


2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


Mechanical 1 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3

Electrical 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

All Other 2 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3

TotalEngineers

2 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

Tightermarketsforcivilengineersarerelatedtotheolderageprofileandhigher

retirementdemandsforthisoccupation.

Somevariationsinthepatternofenrolmentsandgraduationsmaytemporarilytighten

orweakentheothermarkets.

AtlanticCanada

Exhibit#ES8reportstheresultsforallengineersasagroupinAtlanticCanada. Limited

statisticalreliabilitypreventstrackingmoreindividualmarkets.

ExhibitES8 AllEngineers,AtlanticCanada


2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

All Engineers 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 3

Therecessionhadamildimpactonjobcreationwhilegraduationscontinuetorise.

Recoveryis

strong

enough

to

tighten

the

markets

as

migration

has

fallen.

Overmostoftheprojection,thenumberofgraduatesandarrivingimmigrantsexceeds

labourrequirements.


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FindingsandConclusions

The conclusions drawn by this study reflect both the economic model which underpins

our assessment of current and projected labour market conditions, and the important input

received from validation meetings. These meetings brought an industry perspective to

bear on the conclusions from the economic model.

1. It is clear that there is an asymmetry between the way that employers and

engineers look at the engineering labour and the way that standard economic

statistics describe that market. Both employers and engineers ascribe a high

degree of importance to general business experience, and to specialized, technical

experience. Indeed, experience is so important in the engineering profession that

the measurement of both the supply and the demand for engineers needs to be

parsed in terms of experience categories.

2. It is clear from our analysis of specific engineering labour markets that many ofthese markets are characterized by a surplus of recent graduates, who have little or

no experience, but a shortage of experienced engineers with five or more years of

practical experience and the specialized, experience-based technical skills that

employers require. This concurrence of a labour surplus with a skills shortage

was discussed in the reports produced by the Engineering and Technology Labour

Market Study.3

3. The difficulties that many employers experience in recruiting engineers with

specific experience and skills has led to a sharp increase in the use of foreign-

trained engineers brought into Canada by employers under the Temporary Foreign

Worker program. Increasing the supply of domestic graduates, by itself, will not

address employers skills needs. New graduates are not a substitute for

experienced engineers with 5-10 years of experience and specialized technicalskills.

4. The difficulty that many employers have in recruiting engineers with specialized

skills and experience also has led to an increase in off-shoring. Our analysis

suggests that skill shortages are at least as important as cost factors, if not more

important, in driving the increase in off-shoring.

5. The traditional academic fields of study - civil, mechanical, chemical, electrical -

are just the starting point. As graduates move into specific industries, they evolve

into aerospace, systems, transportation, structural, industrial, manufacturing,

petroleum, and other specialized engineers, to list but a few examples. In some

cases, university curricula now reflect these specializations. In most cases,

however, specializations are developed through experience.

3 Engineering and Technology Labour Market Study, Final Report, Engineers Canada and the Canadian

Council of Technicians and Technology, May, 2009. See Page 1 and Page 8

http://etlms.engineerscanada.ca/e/pub_pr.cfm


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6. Standard economic statistics which measure supply and demand in the

engineering labour market attach too little weight to experience and to specializedskills and too much weight to generic qualifications. In this report, therefore, it is

common for our analysis to show a balance between supply and demand (a 3

ranking) for the four large (and generic fields), namely, civil, electrical,

mechanical and chemical, but shortages ( a 4 ranking) in the more specialized

fields, e.g., petroleum engineers.

7. The consulting sector which employs a large share of professional engineers

plays a critical role in meeting industrys needs for specialized skills and

developing those skills within the profession. Consulting also promotes the

mobility of these skills across regions and industries.

8. Within the consulting sector, the internationalization of engineering services has

taken on increased importance. This was described in the report Canadas

Consulting Engineering Sector in the International Economy that was part of theEngineering and Technology Labour Market Study.4 A central finding of that

study was that the internationalization of engineering services increased the

premium on specialized skills.

9. This report points to three challenges for the engineering profession.

The first, and most important, is addressing the graduation-to-work transition, or

more specifically, the chronic and serious under-supply of junior engineer jobs which

are also integral to the internship or EIT programs of the provincial and territorial

associations. This situation sets up a contradiction between the interests of each firm

and the engineering industry as a whole. It is rational business strategy for an

individual employer to require 5-10 years experience for new hires, but at the system

level, this business strategy leads to the serious problems that now confront the

profession and employers as a whole. There are no simple solutions to the

graduation-to-work transition challenge, but addressing this challenge must now

become a priority for the profession. This may have implications for

industry/profession relations, government/profession relations, the structuring of

university programs, and the regulation of professional practices.

The second challenge is to better understand the business and specialized skill needs

of industry and reflect those needs in traditional undergraduate and graduate

programs, in combined MBA-engineering programs, in engineering management

programs, and in continuing professional development programs. The profession

may also need to consider options for credentialing specialized skills, as has been

done in other professions, e.g., law.

4 See,

http://etlms.engineerscanada.ca/media/Canada's%20Consulting%20Engineering%20Sector%20in%20the%

20International%20Economy1.pdf


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The third challenge is to facilitate the movement of experienced engineers from

declining sectors when they have lost their jobs into growing sectors. Engineers whohave lost their jobs owing economic restructuring have considerable business

experience, but are likely to lack some of the specialized skills that are needed by

growing sectors.

Improvements to the next update might add insight in these areas and better meet user

needs. Changes might include;

Added market details that track more specializations and new disciplines

including;

o Engineering Managers

Extended consultations with stakeholders and

o The addition of rankings that track conditions for experienced engineers

based on stakeholder input.

Added details tracking licensing and registrations in the Provincial Associationsincluding;

o Engineer in training programs and other internships

o Permanent immigrants with engineering qualifications and temporary

foreign workers securing permanent status

Added details linking employment to engineering consulting including improvedlinks from key industry drivers, imports and exports of engineering services.


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1.BackgroundandIntroduction

EngineersCanadainitiatedasystemfortrackinglabourmarketsaspartoftheEngineeringand

TechnologyLabourMarketStudyin2008.5 This2010versionofEngineeringLabourMarket

Conditionsupdatesthe2008work;addingdetail,drawingonanewmacroeconomicscenario,

andincludinginputfromaroundofindustryconsultations.

Theanalysiscoverstwentysixseparateengineeringlabourmarketsandthesearesetoutin

Exhibit#1below. Marketswereselectedbasedontheavailabilityofreliabledataandindustry

input6. Wherepossibletheanalysisaccountsforspecializationandthepotentialforengineers

tomoveacrossdisciplinesastheyaccumulateknowledgeandexperience. Statisticsthatare

usedasabasisformarketanalysisoftendonotmeasurethesecircumstances. Thecommentary

oneachmarketassessmenthighlightswhereconditionsmaybeimpactedbyspecializations,

mobilityandtheexperienceoftheworkforce.

Thesystem

is

designed

to

provide

an

assessment

of

labour

markets

that

would

meet

the

needs

ofseveralindustrystakeholdersincluding:

Employersandrecruiters

Students,immigrantsandotherpotentialentrants

Managersofpostsecondaryprograms

Federalandprovincialgovernmentofficialsmanagingimmigrationandotherlabour

marketprograms

Provincialengineeringassociations

5

See http://etlms.engineerscanada.ca/e/6Each market assessment requires a reliable statistical foundation that measures the number of engineers at

work. At a minimum these measures are needed for one starting point but a reliable time series is also

important. The Statistics Canada 2006 Census is the critical starting point. Census results are suppressed

or marked as unreliable for many markets. The Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey is the main source

for annual trends. Weakness in the reliability of this data further limits the scope of this work.


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EngineeringLabourMarketConditions2009-2018

PrismEconomicsandAnalysis

17

Exhibit1

Coverage,Occupation

sandRegions

OccupationbyRegionEngineers

Occupation

Canada

Atlantic

Quebec

Ontario

Manitoba

SK

Alberta

BC

1.

Civilengineers

2.

Mechanicalengineers

Mech,Elec,

&Chem

Engineers

3.

Electrical&Electronicsengineers

4.

Chemicalengineers

Other

Engineers

5.

Petroleumengineers

6.

Industrial&Manufacturingengin

eers

Other

Engineers

7.

Aerospaceengineers

Other

Engineers

8.

Computerengineers

9.

OtherEngineersincludingmetallu

rgicalandmaterials,

mining&geologicalengineers

TotalEngineers

Source:Prism

Economics&Analysis

=LabourMarketTracking

=SumofIndividualLabourMarkets

OtherOccupations(residua

l)

Mechanical,electrical&electronic,

&chemicalgrouped


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Thesystemassesseslabourmarketsbasedonhistoricaldataandfuturescenariosforseveral

measures,including:

Output,investmentandemploymentforengineeringintensiveprovincialindustries:

o Manufacturing

o Construction

o Professional,ScientificandManagerialServices

o Utilities

o Government

o PrimaryIndustries

o Otherindustries

Employmentinengineeringoccupations

GraduatesfromCanadianEngineeringAccreditationBoard(CEAB)programs

Immigration(permanentandtemporaryforeignworkers)byengineeringoccupations

Retirementandmortalityinengineeringoccupations

Theprovincialmeasuresarecombinedintoemploymentdriversthatreflectthedistributionof

engineersacrossindustries. Eachdriverisbasedonprovincialeconomicconditionsacrossa

scenariofrom2010to2018. Thesedriversareprovidedfromeconomicforecastspreparedby

theCentreforSpatialEconomics.7

Theannualchangeinemploymentisaddedtoretirementsandmortality(replacement

demands)toestimatedchanginglabourrequirements. Theseestimatesarecomparedto

increasesinlaboursupplythroughgraduatesfrompostsecondaryprogramsandimmigration.

Exhibit#2summarizestheestimateofExcessSupply,akeylabourmarketmeasure.

7See the C4SE Provincial Economics Forecast January 2010, Centre for Spatial Economics


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Exhibit2Engineering Labour Market Tracking System, Summary of Main Components


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Measures,then,cominglemanyfactorsinthecalculationofexcesssupplyandmarket

assessments. Rankingsareinterpretedcarefullytoreflectthesedifferences.

Rankingsdescribearangeoffivemarketconditions

Thesemeasuresarecombinedintoasummaryrankingthroughaweightedaverageof:

ExcessSupplyasa%ofEmployment

Retirementandmortalityasa%oftheLabourForce

Annual%changeinemployment

Industryinput

Rankingsaresetonascalefrom1to5with1representingaveryweakmarketand5tight

markets. Fromtheperspectiveofemployerseachmarketmightbedescribedasfollows:

Rankings & Description

1 SignificantexcessofsupplyoverdemandNo difficulty in recruiting qualified engineering staff with 0-5 years or 5-10 years of Canadianexperience at established compensation norms within the local labour market.

2Excessofsupplyoverdemand

No difficulty in recruiting qualified engineering staff with 0-5 years or with 5-10 years of Canadianexperience at established compensation norms within the local or regional labour market. Thegeographic range of recruiting and the range of acceptable qualifications is broader than in 1

3

Moderate supply pressuresDifficulty in recruiting qualified engineering staff with more than 5 years of Canadian experience, with

industry or technology-specific skills, and with appropriate non-technical skills. The time required tofill these positions is typically longer than historic norms. Vacancies sometimes need to be re-posted.Employers actively solicit applications from outside the local and regional labour market andreimburse applicants for travel expenses related to interviews, etc. Recruiting engineering staff with 0-

5 years of Canadian experience poses fewer challenges.

4

SignificantsupplypressuresDifficulty across the board in recruiting qualified engineering staff in the local and regional labourmarket. It is normal practice to actively solicit applications from outside the local and regional labour

market and to reimburse applicants for travel expenses related to interviews. Employers are generallyobliged to improve offered terms of compensation and to assist with re-location costs. Recruitmentdifficulties lead many employers to increase their use of third-party recruiters and to increase theiroutsourcing of engineering and technology work to consultancies or staff the assignment with

engineering workers from another region. There is a significant increase in the risk of project delaysand compensation-driven cost escalations.

5

SupplyconstraintsSystemic difficulty in recruiting qualified engineering staff. International recruiting is common amonglarge employers. There is widespread perception that the consulting sector is working at full capacityand that there is little, if any, remaining scope to outsource engineering and technology work to

qualified consultancies with a known track record.

ThesefiverankingsareusedtocharacterizeengineeringlabourmarketsacrossCanadainthe

nextsection.Marketrankingshavebeenpreparedforeachyearfrom2009to2018.


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Readerswhoareinterestedinmoredetailsoneachcomponentofthemarketassessmentare

referredtotheAppendices. AppendixAincludesadescriptionoftheCenterforSpatial

Economic,January2010Provincialforecaststhatserveasthebasisfortheindustrydetailand

engineeringemploymentdrivers.


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2. LabourMarketAssessments

Thissectionofthereportdescribesconditionsforthetwentysixlabourmarketssetoutin

Exhibit#1.

Aninitialsummarydescribestheeconomicanddemographicconditionsintheregion. This

isasynopsisoftheCenterforSpatialEconomicsscenariosanddescribestheconditions

linkedtotheindustrydriversforemployment.

EachsectionbeginswithExhibit1,anaccountingofthenumberofengineersworkinginthe

market. Theestimatesofengineersemployedaretakenfromthe2006Censusandfrom

analysisfor2009developedbyPrismEconomicsandAnalysis.8 Readersareencouragedto

considertheseestimatesandcommentonanyothersourcesthatmightbeabasisfor

comparison. Theaccuracyoftheseestimatesvariesdependingonthesizeofthemarket.

Exhibit2describes

employment

trends

for

each

market

using

index

numbers

that

track

the

cumulativechangebeginningin2007andrunningto2018. Datafrom2007to2009are

adjustedtoreflectthehistoricaldatafromtheLabourForceSurvey. Estimatesfrom2010to

2018arederivedfromdriverscalculatedfromtheCenterforSpatialEconomicsforecasts.

Graphicsforeachmarketshowthemajordriversandcommentsindicatehowchanging

industryconditionsareimpactingemployment. Theannualchangeinemployment,tracked

ineachgraphic,isakeymeasureoflabourrequirements.

Exhibit3foreachmarketsetsouttherecenthistoryandexpectedtrendsforthreekey

measures.

a. ThenumberofgraduatesfromCEABEngineeringprograms. Datafrom

EngineersCanadaprovidesthehistoryandestimatesfrom2009to2018are

basedonthepatternofregistrations. Theanalysisassumesthatregistrations

andtheassociatedgraduationswillremainconstantatthelevelsreportedfor

2008.

Industrystakeholders

have

observed

that

aproportion

of

graduates

do

notentertheworkforce. Anadjustmentreflectingthistrendreducesthe

numberofgraduatesenteringtheworkforceby30%.

b. ThereportednumberofengineersarrivinginthemarketfromoutsideCanada.

Thisincludesbothpermanentimmigrantsandtemporaryforeignworkers.9The

analysisassumesthatthenumberofarrivalsin2008remainsconstantfrom

2009to2018.Industrystakeholdersobservethattherearedelaysinintegrating

permanentimmigrantsandsomearenotabletofindworkasengineers. An

8 Prism Economics and Analysis has reviewed different estimates of employment, the labour force and

unemployment for engineers in as many markets as possible. Sources include the 2006 Census and the

Labour Force Survey at Statistics Canada. Where reliability is a concern these measures have been

adjusted.9

Estimates of immigration are adjusted in the case of temporary foreign workers. In theory, these workersare limited to two years of work in Canada. But experience shows that various programs are encouraging

9

Estimates of immigration are adjusted in the case of temporary foreign workers. In theory, these workers

are limited to two years of work in Canada. But experience shows that various programs are encouraging

these workers to remain. It is assumed that half of arriving temporary foreign workers leave after two years

and half remain.


23/134



adjustmentreducesthenumberofpermanentimmigrantsenteringthe

workforceby15%.

c. Thenumberofengineerspermanentlyleavingtheworkforceincluding

retirementandmortality. Theseestimatesbeginwiththe2008ageprofileof

eachgroupage50andoverandcalculatethenumberofexitsbyapplying

mortalityratesandchangesinparticipationratesineachyearfrom2009to

2018. Theresultingestimatesindicatethenumberofengineersneededto

sustainthelabourforceatthestartinglevelin2008.

Exhibit4describesexcesssupplyineachyear. Thismeasureissimilartothechangein

unemploymentandboththenumberandthepercentofemployedareincluded. Asexcess

supplyrisesmarketsaregrowingweaker,recruitingwillbeeasierandjobsearchmoredifficult.

Theseexhibitsprovidealltheinformationincludedintherankingsthatarereportedattheend

ofeachsection. Eachannualrankingcombinesthemeasuresofexcesssupply,thechangein

employment

and

the

proportion

of

the

workforce

retiring

or

dying.


24/134



A Canada

TheEconomy

Thissectionintroducesnationalresultsformajorengineeringlabourmarketsfrom2009to

2018. Labourmarketconditionsforengineeringoccupationswilldependonkeyeconomic

backgroundfactors. Abriefsummaryofexpectedconditionsispresentedhereandacomplete

writeupoftheCenterforSpatialEconomicsJanuary,2010Provincialforecastisattachedin

AppendixA.

Therecessionisoverandaslowrecoveryhasstarted. RecoveryisstrongestinAsiaandweakest

inEurope. Canadasrecoveryfromrecessionandlongtermgrowthpotentialdependsonexport

marketsanddomesticproductioncapacity. Duringarecoveryperiodfrom2010to2012both

thesefactorswillencourageeconomicgrowth.

Governmentstimulus,

introduced

in

early

2009

in

most

economies,

has

helped

to

cut

the

recessionshortandspurrecovery. Stimulusspendingoninfrastructureprojectsandin

engineeringrelatedconstructioncontinuesin2010andearly2011. Accelerateddesignand

constructionwillhelpsomeengineeringoccupationsintheshortterm. Butgovernmentdeficits

leavelargedebtburdensthatwillrequirelongtermrestraintingovernmentspendingortax

increases.

Commoditypricesriseastheworldeconomyimproves. Canadasresourceindustriesmay

benefit,especiallyfromopportunitiesinAsia. Buthighercommoditypricesalsocreateupward

pressureoninflation. Inresponse,interestrateswillriseandactasafurtherrestraintonthe

economy.

CanadianandUSeconomicgrowthrisestonear3% abovetheirpotentialduringthe

recoveryperiodin2010and2011. Growthslowslatertotrendratesnear2%. Traditional

CanadianexportmarketsintheUnitedStatesareconstrainedbydemographicandgovernment

financefactors. Canadianeconomicgrowthisincreasinglyconstrainedbylimiteddomestic

labourforcegrowth. Risingimmigrationisassumedacrosstheforecastscenario. Government

policieswillpromotethisandindustryeffortstorecruitandretainnonCanadianworkerswillbe

essentialtosustaininggrowth.

Undertheseconditionsemploymentgrowthwillgenerallybefarbelowhistoricpatterns. Atthe

sametimelabourmarketswilltendtobetighterthaninthepast. Unemploymentwillbewell

belowhistoricallevelsandrecruitingwillbeanongoingchallenge. Theimpactofthese

structuraldemographicsdependsontheageprofileofeachoccupationandregion.

Thesegeneraleconomicconditionsdriveindividualprovincialindustriesandemployment. Six

engineeringintensiveindustriesareidentified.

Manufacturing

Thishasbeentheweakestsectorforatleastadecadeandthemostvulnerableduringthe

recession. Startingfromaverylowbase,therecoverywillbesignificant. Thiswillbeledby

investmentsinnewtechnologyandcapacity. Keymanufacturingindustrieswillprosperduring


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thenextdecadebasedonnewproductsanddesigns. However,therecoverywillnotregainthe

pastpeaksofoutputuntil2015andoverallmanufacturingemploymentwillnotreturntoearlier

peaklevels.

Utilities

Investmentinnewutilitycapacity,includingresourcebasedprojects,hasbeenaleadingsource

ofactivityforthepastdecadeandisexpectedtoaccelerateintheforecastperiod. New

capacitywillimproveproductivitysothatoverallemploymentgainswillbelimited. Introducing

majornewconstructionprojectsandtechnologieswilladdjobsforengineers.

GovernmentServices

Governmentandinstitutionalinvestmentshavebeenaleadingsourceofactivityoverthepast

decadeandthismomentumcarriesonto2011basedonfiscalstimulusprograms. But

investmentfadesasthestimulusprojectsendandfiscalrestraintsetsin. Employment

opportunitiesingovernmentwillbelimitedoverthescenario.

Construction

Thissectorledtheeconomyforthepastdecadeandwillbenefitfromthestimulusto

infrastructureduring2010. Constructionactivitywillslowdown;laggingbehindothersectors

from2012to2018. Whileemploymentgrowthwillbeslower,therearemanyindustrial,

institutionalandutilityprojectsplannedandimportantopportunitiesareexpected.

Professional,ScientificandManagementServices

Thissectorisamajoremployerforengineersandincludesengineeringconsulting. Activity

tracksthegeneraleconomictrends. Prospectsforconsultingfirms,includingopportunitiesand

challengesinothercountries,maynotbefullyreflectedinthedrivers.

PrimaryIndustries

Thissectorcombinesthediversefortunesofmining,agriculture,forestry,fishingandother

industries.

Investment

and

output

have

lagged

behind

the

general

economy

and

this

is

projectedtocontinue. Specificopportunitiesassociatedwithindividualresources(e.g.potash,

uranium,gold,etc.)maynotbereflectedinthegeneraltrendsforthesedrivers.

OtherIndustries

Thesedriversrepresenttherestoftheeconomyandgrowthtracksthegeneraleconomic

trends. Economicexpansionwillbeheldbackacrossthecomingdecadebythelowergrowthin

populationandthelabourforce.

NationalEngineeringLabourMarkets

Employmentgrowthineachofthenineengineeringoccupationsisakeydriveroflabour

markets. TheEngineeringCanadasystemstartswithemploymentestimatestakenfromthe

2006CensusandthenadjuststheseusingthemonthlyLabourForceSurveytotrack

employmentduringtheyearsafterthecensus. TheLabourForceSurveyisnotareliablesource

forsmaller

markets.

Stakeholders

are

encouraged

to

consider

the

employment

estimates

reportedinExhibitA. Thesevaluesareanimportantstartingpointforthemarketassessments

tofollow.


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ExhibitAEmploymentHistoryCanada

Labour Market 2006c 2009e

(Census) (Estimated Trend)

Civil engineers 44680 45029

Mechanical engineers 38015 38612

Electrical and electronics 34340 35325

Chemical 9755 9528

Industrial and Manufacturing 20220 20321

Petroleum 9830 11900

Aerospace 5740 4992

Computer 26760 25676

All Other10095 8412

Total, All Engineers 199435 199795

Source: Statistics Canada, Prism Economics and Analysis

KeyPoints:

Theseestimatesarebasedonhouseholdsurveyswhereindividualsidentifytheir

occupation. Thereisnoverificationofcredentialsorqualifications.

Civil,mechanicalandelectricalengineeringaccountforoverhalfofemployment.

Theallothercategoryincludesmetallurgicalandmaterials,mining,geologicalandother

engineers.


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CivilEngineers Canada

ExhibitA1.1

Civil

Engineers,

Canada

Source:StatisticsCanada,C4SE,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis

KeyPoints:

EmploymentofCivilEngineersisprimarilydrivenbyinvestmentandoutputinProfessional,

ScientificandManagementServices(includingengineeringconsulting)andConstruction.

Joblossesin2009insomeindustrieswerepartlyoffsetbyincreasesintheGovernment

Servicessector:

o Gainsarerelatedtotheshortterminfrastructureandotherstimulusprograms

Employmenttracksmostcloselywithconstructionandprofessional,scientificand

managementservicesthetwolargestsingleemployersofcivilengineers.

Civilengineersaremoreconcentratedinprofessional,scientificandmanagement(including

engineeringconsulting)servicesthanotheroccupations. Thismightprotectthemfrom

cyclicalvariationsinemployment.

Cumulativeemploymentgrowthfrom2009to2018isbelowtheaverageforallengineers.

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Index2007=100

IndexofEmploymentandRelatedIndustrial

Growth CivilEngineers

AllCivilEngineers Professional,Scientific,Managerial

GovernmentServices Construction


28/134



ExhibitA1.2CivilEngineers,Canada

Demographic Supply Side Measures -Civil engineers

2007 2008 2009 2010 2018(Annual Average)

Graduates Entering the Labour Force* 1184 1209 1229 1315

Immigrants** 1041 1043 1059 997

Replacement Demand (#)*** 741 1122 1018 1085

Replacement (% of TrendEmployment)***

2.5 2.1 2.1 2.5

Source:statisticsCanada,CitizenshipandImmigrationCanada,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis

*Equals70%ofgraduatesfromCEABprograms

**Includestemporaryforeignworkersandpermanentimmigrants

***Replacementdemand=retirementandmortality

KeyPoints:

o Additionstoenrolmentsinpostsecondaryprogramshavegraduallyraised

graduationsandthesewillrisetoapeakin2012

o Overthesameperiodthenumberofpermanentimmigrantshasdeclinedandthisis

offsetbyamodestgainintemporaryforeignworkers.

o Theageprofileforthisoccupationisolderthantheaverageforallengineers.


29/134



ExhibitA1.3CivilEngineers,Canada


KeyPoints:

Onbalanceadditionstotheworkforcefallshortoflabourrequirementsandexcesssupply

fallsacrossthescenario.

Lowexcesssupplyisrelatedtotheolderageprofile,retirementsandrelativelylow

registrationsinpostsecondaryprogramscomparedtootherdisciplines.

Thereis

little

cyclical

variation

after

2010

and

this

may

be

linked

to

trends

in

professional,

scientificandmanagementservices(includingengineeringconsultingservices)activity.

Selfemploymentinconsultingandprofessional,scientificandmanagementservices

(includingengineeringconsultingservices)mayoffertemporaryworkforthisgroupinweak

markets.

ExhibitA1.4CivilEngineersCanada


2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018


KeyPoints:

Lowexcesssupplyandtheolderageprofilecontributetohighrankingslaterinthe

scenario.

1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f

Percent

ExcessSupply

CanadaCivilEngineers

ExcessSupply ExcessSupplyasa%ofTrendEmployment(2yearaverage)


30/134



MechanicalEngineers Canada

ExhibitA2.1 MechanicalEngineers,Canada


KeyPoints:

EmploymentofMechanicalEngineersisprimarilydrivenbyoutput,investmentand

employmentinprofessional,scientificandmanagementservices(includingengineering

consultingservices),manufacturingandutilitiesindustries.

MechanicalEngineershavethegreatestconcentrationinmanufacturingandaremore

vulnerabletotherecessionaswellasmorelikelytobenefitfromtherecovery.

Cyclicaljoblossesin2009mayhavebeenpartlyoffsetbyselfemploymentinconsultingand

theprofessional,scientificandmanagementservices(includingengineeringconsulting

services)industry.

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Index2007=100

IndexofEmploymentandRelatedIndustrial

Growth MechanicalEngineers

AllMechanicalEngineers Manufacturing

Professional,Scientific,Managerial Utilities


31/134



ExhibitA2.2 MechanicalEngineers,Canada

Demographic Supply SideMeasures - Mechanical engineers

2007 2008 2009 2010 2018(Annual Average)

Graduates Entering the LabourForce*

1859 2063 1811 2036

Immigrants** 1406 1117 1069 1066



2.2 1.8 1.8 2.2

Source: StatisticsCanada,CitizenshipandImmigrationCanada,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis




KeyPoints:

EnrolmentsinCEABprogramshaveincreasedsteadilyacrossthepastdecadeand

graduationswillreachapeakin2012.

Permanentimmigrationhasdeclinedsteadilyfallingby75%to2008.

Recentincreasesintemporaryforeignworkershaveonlypartiallyoffsetlossesto

permanentimmigration.

Canadiangraduatesfrompostsecondaryprogramsarethelargestsourceofentrantstothe

workforce.

Theageprofileformechanicalengineersisclosetotheaverageforallengineers.


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ExhibitA2.3MechanicalEngineers,Canada

Source:StatisticsCanada,CitizenshipandImmigrationCanada,PrismEconomicsandAnalysis

KeyPoints:

Excesssupplyisstableandconsistentwithbalancedmarkets.

Supplythroughbothimmigrationandpostsecondaryprogramsareconsistentlyaheadof

labourrequirements.

ExhibitA2.4MechanicalEngineers,Canada


2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Mechanicalengineers

2 3 3 4 3 3 3 4 4 4

KeyPoints:

Marketstightenbrieflyastherecoveryinmanufacturingreachesapeakin2012.

Retirementswillcreatechallengesrecruitingexperiencedengineerslaterinthescenario.

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f

Percent

ExcessSupply

CanadaMechanicalEngineers



33/134



ElectricalandElectronicsEngineers Canada

ExhibitA3.1 ElectricalandElectronics Engineers,Canada


KeyPoints:

EmploymentofElectricalEngineersisdrivenprimarilybyinvestmentandemploymentin

utilities,professional,scientificandmanagementservices(includingengineeringconsulting

services)andmanufacturingindustries.

Currenteconomicconditionspullemploymentindifferentdirectionswithmanufacturing

reducingandutilityinvestmentincreasingopportunities.

Utilityrelatedactivitypeaksin2014;noadditionalemploymentisapparentlaterinthe

scenario.

Longtermtrendssuggestgrowthbelowaverageforallengineers.

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

In

dex2007=100

IndexofEmploymentandRelatedIndustrialGrowth

ElectricalEngineers

AllElectricalandElectronicsEngineers Manufacturing

Utilities Professional,Scientific,Managerial


34/134



ExhibitA3.2 ElectricalandElectronics Engineers,Canada

Demographic Supply Side Measures- Electrical and Electronics

2007 2008 2009 2010 2018(Annual Average)


1678 1656 1436 1587

Immigrants** 1501 730 701 988



2.1 1.6 1.6 2.1





Key

Points:

Enrolmenttrendsandassociatedgraduatesfrompostsecondaryprogramshavebeenflat

withonlymoderatechangesacrossthelastdecade.

Permanentimmigrationhasdeclinedacrossthedecadeandthearrivaloftemporaryforeign

workershasalsodeclined.

Theageprofileforelectricalengineersisclosetotheaverage.


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ExhibitA3.3Electrical andElectronicsEngineers,Canada


KeyPoints:

Limitedemploymentgrowthcombineswithcurrenttrendsinimmigrationandpost

secondaryenrolmentstosustainnormallevelsofexcesssupply.

ExhibitA3.4Electrical andElectronicsEngineers,Canada


2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Electrical andElectronics

2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4

KeyPoints:

Limitedemploymentgrowthcombineswithsupplysidetrendstoleavelabourmarkets

inbalanceastherecoveryunfolds.

Retirementslaterinthescenariowilladdtolabourrequirementsandrecruiting

experiencedengineerswillbeachallenge.

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f

Percent

ExcessSupply

CanadaElectricalandElectronicsEngineers

ExcessSupply ExcessSupplyasa%ofTrendEmployment (2yearaverage)


36/134



ChemicalEngineers Canada

ExhibitA4.1ChemicalEngineers,Canada


KeyPoints:

EmploymentofChemicalEngineersisdrivenbyemploymentinprofessional,scientificand

managementservices(includingengineeringconsultingservices)andmanufacturing

industries.

Declinesin2009wereweigheddownbyasharpdeclineinmanufacturing.

Longtermprospectsarelimitedbyopportunitiesinmanufacturing.

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Index2007=100


ChemicalEngineers

AllChemicalEngineers Manufacturing

Professional,Scientific,Managerial


37/134



ExhibitA4.2 ChemicalEngineers,Canada

Demographic Supply Side Measures- Chemical

2007 2008 2009 2010 2018(Annual Average)


642 721 659 721

Immigrants** 448 455 471 434



2.1 1.7 1.7 2.0





KeyPoints:

Trendsin

enrolment

and

graduations

have

been

cyclical

but

on

arising

trend.

Graduations

reachedapeakin2008butwilldeclinein2009and2010. Enrolmentpatternswillcreatea

newpeakin2011and2012.

Permanentimmigrationhasdeclinedsteadilyacrossthepastdecadeandgainsintemporary

foreignworkershavenotreplacedtheselosses.

Theageprofileisaverage.


38/134





KeyPoints:

Recessionandweaknessinmanufacturingdriveupexcesssupplyin2009andconditionsare

slowtoimprove.

Theexpectedincreaseingraduationsin2011and2012willaddtoexcesssupplyandlargely

balancelabourrequirementsacrossthescenario.



2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Chemical 2 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

KeyPoints:

LabourmarketswillbebalancedwithCEABprogramslargelyreplacingimmigrationasthe

primarysourceofchemicalengineers.

Difficultiesrecruiting

experienced

engineers

may

persist

under

these

conditions.

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f

Percent

ExcessSupply

CanadaChemicalEngineers



39/134



IndustrialandManufacturingEngineers Canada

ExhibitA5.1IndustrialandManufacturing,Canada


KeyPoints:

Employmentopportunitiesaredrivenprimarilybyinvestmentandoutputinthe

manufacturingindustry.

Sharpdeclineinmanufacturingcushionedsomewhatbyprofessional,scientificand

managementservices(includingengineeringconsultingservices)sector.

Recoveryinmanufacturingisrelatedtoinvestmentinnewtechnologiesandengineerswill

playakeypartinthis.

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Index2007=100


IndustrialEngineers

AllIndustrialandManufacturingEngineers

Manufacturing

Professional,Scientific,Managerial


40/134



ExhibitA5.2 IndustrialandManufacturing,Canada

Demographic Supply SideMeasures - Industrial andManufacturing

2007 2008 2009 2010 2018(Annual Average)


365 306 311 300

Immigrants** 586 450 440 472



1.9 1.3 1.3 1.9





Key

Points:

Theworkforceforindustrialandmanufacturingengineersgrowsasengineersfromother

disciplines(e.g.mechanicalandchemical)findworkandgainexperienceinindustry.

EnrolmentsandgraduatesfromCEABprogramsarelimitedrelativetothesizeofthe

workforce.

ImmigrantshaveoutnumberedCanadiangraduatesasentrantsintotheworkplace.

Permanentimmigrationhasdeclinedfromapeakin2000whilethenumberoftemporary

foreignworkershasbeenmaintained.

Immigrationhaskepttheaverageoftheworkforcewellbelowaverage.


41/134



ExhibitA5.3 IndustrialandManufacturing,Canada


KeyPoints:

Therecoveryofthemanufacturingsectorandtherelianceonnewtechnologieswillreduce

theexcesssupplyoftheseoccupations.

ExhibitA5.4

Industrial

and

Manufacturing,

Canada


2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Industrial andManufacturing

2 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4

KeyPoints:

Chroniclabourshortageswillcontinueacrossthescenariogiventhecurrentlevelsof

immigrationandpostsecondaryenrolments.

Excesssupplyreportedaboveformechanicalandchemicalengineersmayencouragethese

groupstoseekworkandshifttheirfocustothismarket.

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

2000

1500

1000

500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f

Percent

ExcessSupply

CanadaIndustrialandManufacturingEngineers



42/134



PetroleumEngineers Canada

ExhibitA6.1PetroleumEngineers


KeyPoints:

EmploymentofPetroleumEngineersisdrivenprimarilybyInvestmentandemploymentin

professional,scientificandmanagementservices(includingengineeringconsultingservices)

andprimaryindustries.

TheStatisticsCanadaLabourForceSurvey(LFS)reportsextremelystronggrowthbetween

20072009:

o Nationalgainsarenotconsistentwithregionaldata.

o Analysissuggeststhatestimatesmaynotbereliable.

80

85

90

95100

105

110

115

120

125

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Index2007=100


PetroleumEngineers

AllPetroEngineers Professional,Scientific,Managerial

TotalPrimary


43/134



ExhibitA6.2 Petroleum

Demographic Supply Side Measures- Petroleum

2007 2008 2009 2010 2018(Annual Average)


48 59 52 69

Immigrants** 108 120 160 145



2.0 2.1 2.1 2.0





KeyPoints:

Thepetroleumengineeringworkforcegrowsasengineersfromotherdisciplines(e.g.

mechanicalandchemical)findworkandgainexperienceinindustry.

EnrolmentsandgraduatesfromCEABprogramsarelimitedrelativetothesizeofthe

workforce.

ImmigrationfarexceedstheCanadianpostsecondarysystemasasourceforthisworkforce.

Immigration(bothpermanentandtemporary)havefallenfarbelowpeaklevelsandmodest

gainsinpostsecondaryenrolmentshavenotkeptpace.

Theageprofileforpetroleumengineersisclosetothenationalaverageforallengineers


44/134



ExhibitA6.3 Petroleum


KeyPoints:

Theworkforceinthisoccupationmayincludemechanical,chemicalandotherengineers

whoworkintheindustryandhavedevelopedexpertiseaspetroleumengineers.

Measuresofexcesssupplymaynotbereliablebecauseofsuspectemploymentestimates.

ExhibitA6.4Petroleum


2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Petroleum 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4

KeyPoints:

Rankingsarelikelynotreliableduetosuspectemploymentestimates.

Excesssupplyreportedaboveformechanicalandchemicalengineersmayencouragethese

groupstoseekworkandshifttheirfocustothismarket

16%

14%

12%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f

Percent

ExcessSupply

CanadaPetroleumEngineers

ExcessSupply ExcessSupplyasa%ofTrendEmployment


45/134



Aerospace Engineers Canada

ExhibitA7.1AerospaceEngineers,Canada


KeyPoints:

Employmentfor

aerospace

engineers

is

driven

primarily

by

investment

and

output

in

manufacturingandprofessional,scientificandmanagementservices(includingengineering

consultingservices)industries. Themorespecializednatureofthisoccupationmakesbroad

indicatorsformanufacturinglessreliable. Strengthintheaerospacesectormightnotbe

adequatelyreflectedinthebroadereconomicmeasures.

Datafor2009showlittlechangeinemploymentwhilethekeyindustrialdriversdeclined.

Prospectsforrecoveryarestrongbutemploymenthasbeenvolatileandonadownward

trendforaerospaceengineersforovertenyears.

Employmentdoesnotregainpeaklevelsachievedin1997until2013.

Themanufacturingrecoveryislinkedtotheadoptionofnewtechnologieswithleadership

fromengineers.

Thisgrouphasthestrongestoverallemploymentgrowthfornationaloccupations.

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Ind

ex2007=100


AerospaceEngineers

AllAerospaceEngineers Professional,Scientific,Managerial

Manufacturing


46/134



ExhibitA7.2 AerospaceEngineers, Canada

Demographic Supply Side Measures Aerospace

2007 2008 2009 2010 2018(Annual Average)


139 125 115 122

Immigrants** 75 224 226 152



1.8 1.7 1.7 1.9





KeyPoints:

Immigration(bothpermanentandtemporary)peakedwithemploymentinthelate1990s

anddeclineduntil2007:

o Abigincreaseisreportedinthearrivaloftemporaryforeignworkersin2008.

EnrolmentsandgraduationfromCanadianpostsecondaryprogramshassteadilyimproved

buthasnotyetfilledthegapleftbydecliningimmigration.

Highlevelsofimmigrationhelptokeeptheageprofilebelownormal.

Deleted: -


47/134



ExhibitA7.3 AerospaceEngineers, Canada


KeyPoints:

Therecessionseemstohavecausedapauseinemploymentgrowth.

Asurgeintemporaryimmigrationhasbalancedmarkets.

Halfofthetemporaryforeignworkerswhoarrivedin2008areassumedtoleavethe

workforceoverthenearfuture;levelsofpermanentimmigrationandgraduationsarenot

sufficienttomeetlabourrequirementsduringtherecoveryphasefrom2010to2013.

ExhibitA7.4AerospaceEngineers,Canada


2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Aerospace 3 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 4

KeyPoints:

Labourmarketswillbetightastheprojectedmanufacturingrecoveryunfolds.

Laboursupplybeginstocatchupwithdemandtowardstheendofthescenario.

6%

4%

2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

600

400

200

0

200

400

600

800

2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f

Percent

ExcessSupply

CanadaAerospaceEngineers

ExcessSupply ExcessSupplyasa%ofTrendEmployment (2yearaverage)


48/134



Computer(exceptsoftwareengineers)Engineers Canada

ExhibitA8.1ComputerEngineers(exceptsoftwareengineers),Canada


KeyPoints:

EmploymentbyComputerEngineersisdrivenprimarilybyinvestmentinprofessional,

scientificandmanagementservices(includingengineeringconsultingservices)industry.

Therecessionhasalimitedimpactwithaslightdeclinein2009,thensteadygrowththrough

2018.

TheITbubbledroveemploymenttoapeakin20002001andthendeclinedin2003

2004. Growthhasbeensteadysincethen.

Overthescenarioemploymentgrowthforcomputerengineersexceedstheaverageforall

engineers.

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Index

2007=100


ComputerEngineers

AllComputerEngineers Professional,Scientific,Managerial

Manufacturing


49/134



ExhibitA8.2 ComputerEngineers(exceptsoftwareengineers),Canada

Demographic Supply Side Measures Computer

2007 2008 2009 2010 2018(Annual Average)


1082 964 412 957

Immigrants** 731 612 694 688



1.2 0.8 0.8 1.2





KeyPoints:

Graduatesfromcomputerengineeringprogramsrosetoapeakin2004andhavebeen

decliningsincethen.

Permanentimmigrationandtemporaryforeignworkershavebeendecliningsince2001.

Thegeneralrelianceonimmigrationfornewentrantshaskepttheaverageageofthe

workforcewellbelowtheaverageforallengineers.


50/134



ExhibitA8.3 ExhibitA8.2 ComputerEngineers(exceptsoftwareengineers),Canada


KeyPoints:

Labourmarketsweretightfrom2005to2007asemploymentrevivedwhilesupply

continuedtodeclineinreactiontotheITbust.

Employmentweakenedin2008and2009allowingimmigrationandgraduationsto

overshoot.

Therecoveryinprofessional,scientificandmanagementservices(includingengineering

consultingservices)andmanufacturingwillreduceexcesssupplyinthefaceoflow

immigrationandgraduations.

Labourrequirements

grow

more

slowly

later

in

the

scenario

as

retirements

are

limited

and

employmentgrowthsettlesdowntotrendratesfortheeconomy.

ExhibitA8.4 ComputerEngineers(exceptsoftwareengineers)


2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Computer 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

KeyPoints:

Relativelystrongemploymentgrowthisbalancedbylimitedreplacementdemandasthe

workforce

is

quite

young.

Thereisariskofrecruitingdifficultiesinspecializedareas.

Overallmarketsbalanceoncetherecoveryhassettledintotrendratesofgrowthlaterinthe

scenario.

6%

4%

2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

1500

1000

500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f

Percent

ExcessSupply

CanadaComputerEngineers(exceptsoftwareengineers)

Excess

Supply Excess

Supply

as

a

%

of

Trend

Employment


51/134



AllOther

Engineers Canada

ExhibitA9.1AllOtherEngineers,Canada


KeyPoints:

Thiscategoryincludesmining,geological,metallurgicalandmaterialsandotherengineers.

Employmentinallotherengineeringoccupationsisdrivenprimarilybyinvestmentin

manufacturing,governmentservicesandprofessional,scientificandmanagementservices

(includingengineeringconsultingservices)industries.

Sharpdeclinein2009,resumesgrowthinlinewithinvestmentinprofessional,scientificand

managementservices(includingengineeringconsultingservices)industry.

Employmentinthisoccupationlastreachedapeakintheearly1990sandthislevelwasonly

passedin2006.

Overallgrowthacrossthescenarioforthisgroupisequaltotheaverageforallengineering

occupations.

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Index20

07=100

IndexofEmploymentandRelatedIndustrialGrowth All

OtherEngineers

OtherEngineers Professional,Scientific,Managerial

Manufacturing GovernmentServices


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Demographic Supply Side Measures- All Other

2007 2008 2009 2010 2018(Annual Average)


1019 1031 1009 1147

Immigrants** 550 555 574 530



2.4 1.7 1.7 2.4





KeyPoints:

Graduatesfrom

Canadian

post

secondary

programs

traditionally

exceed

immigration

as

a

sourceofentrants.

Immigration(mostlypermanent)peakedin2001,laterthanotherengineeringgroups,and

hasbeendecliningsince.

Decliningimmigrationsince2001hasexceededthegainingraduations;leavingadropinthe

availableworkforce.

Relianceonthedomesticworkforceisassociatedwithanolderageprofile.


53/134





KeyPoints:

Excesssupplyincreasedin2008and2009asemploymentfellandsupplyremainedlargely

unchanged.

Strongemploymentrecoveryfrom2010to2012iscoveredbyatemporarygainin

graduations.

Thiscategory

contains

several

distinct

occupations

and

rates

of

excess

supply

for

individual

occupationsmaydifferwidelyfromtheoverallresult.



2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

All Other 2 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 3 3

KeyPoints:

Sustained higherlevelsofgraduationsandtrendgrowthinemploymentcombineto

balancemarkets.

20%

10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1000

500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 2016f 2017f 2018f

Percent

ExcessSupply

CanadaOtherEngineers



54/134



Theageprofilefortheseoccupationsishigherthanaverageforengineersandthiswillmake

recruitingfor

experienced

engineers

more

difficult.

Rankingsforalltheseoccupationstogethermayconcealimportantmarketdifferences

amongindividualgroups.


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TotalEngineers Canada

ExhibitA10.1

Total

Engineers,

Canada


KeyPoints:

Averageannualgrowthinengineeringemploymentfrom2010to2018is1.5%,abovethe

averagegrowthoftotalCanadianemployment.

ThissignalsamoderateincreaseintheproportionofengineersintheCanadianworkforce

andthisisdue,inthescenario,totherelativelystronggrowthinengineeringintensive

industries.

Themajordriversforengineeringemploymentareinvestmentandoutputingovernment,

manufacturingandtheprofessional,scientificandmanagementservices(including

engineeringconsultingservices)industries.

Ledbyregulargainsinthebigthreeoccupations(civil,mechanicalandelectrical)andrecent

additionsofcomputerengineers,employmentreachedanalltimehighin2008.

Thedeclinein2009waslinkedtotherecessionandgrowthresumesinlinewithinvestment

inprofessional,scientificandmanagementservices(includingengineeringconsulting

services)industryin2010.

Thestrongestcyclicalgrowthinemploymentisrelatedtotheexpectedrecoveryin

manufacturing.Thisrecovery:

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Index2007=100


TotalEngineers

AllEngineers Professional,Scientific,Managerial

Manufacturing OtherIndustries


56/134



o Drivesemploymentandtightensmarketsforindustrialandmanufacturing

engineers

and

aerospace,

but

employmentlevelsonlyslowlyregainpeaklevelsachievedinthelate1990s

orinthemiddleofthisdecade.

Whereemploymentgrowthissustainedabovethetrendgrowthintheeconomy,itis

associatedwiththeadaptationofnewtechnologies(e.g.manufacturingandcomputer

engineering)ortheadditionofmajorprojectactivity(e.g.utilityconstruction).


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ExhibitA10.2 TotalEngineers,Canada

Demographic Supply SideMeasures - Total Engineers

2007 2008 2009 2010 2018(Annual Average)


8016 8133 7034 8254

Immigrants** 6447 5306 5395 5472



2.0 1.6 1.6 2.1





KeyPoints:

Thesteady

decline

in

permanent

immigration

has

been

partly

offset

by

temporary

foreign

workersbuttheoverallcontributionofnonCanadianstotheworkforcehasdeclined.

SteadyoverallgrowthingraduationsfromCEABprogramshasovertakenimmigrationand

nowcontributesthemajorityofnewengineers.

Over2.0%oftheworkforcewillretire;leaveengineeringoccupationsacrossthescenario.

Replacingtheselosseswithnewgraduateswillaggravatethecurrentdifficultiesrecruiting

experiencedengineersinmostmarkets.


58/134



ExhibitA10.3TotalEngineers, Canada


KeyPoints:

Therecessiontemporarilyraisedexcesssupplybutrecoveryisstron

Documents

Engineering Labour Market Conditions Report 2010