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Enrollment
Analysis Report
2017-2018 to 2022-2023
November 2017
Newton Public Schools 100 Walnut Street
Newton, MA 02460
David Fleishman Superintendent
Liam Hurley Assistant Superintendent/Chief Financial & Administrative Officer
Acknowledgements:
Julie Kirrane, Director of Business and Planning Sean Mannion, Finance Director
Katy Hogue, District Student Data Manager Janelle Roth, Administrative Assistant
TABLE OF CONTENTS SECTION PAGE
Executive Summary i-iv
I. Enrollment Trends
System-wide Projections Elementary Projections
Secondary Projections National, State and Local Trends Rental Housing Complexes Housing Trends in Newton Trends in Housing Patterns of District Families Real Estate Sales
1-17
II. Enrollment Projection Method Kindergarten Projection Methodology NESDEC Comparison Accuracy of Projections Frequently Asked Questions
18-28
III. Enrollment History Grade-by-Grade Analysis A Comparison to Peak Enrollment Years 29-37
IV. Individual School Reports 38-78
V. Student Exits and Entrances V1. Non-Public/Private School Students
Appendices
A. Student Population Detail B. City of Newton Population C. Residential Property Data D. NESDEC’s Enrollment Projections vs. Newton’s E. School Districts and Buffer Zones F. Residential Development
79-87
88-93
94-116
LIST OF TABLES
TABLE PAGE
1. Projected Enrollments by School 2018-2019 to 2022-23 7
2. Enrollment History and Projections by School 1975-76 to 2022-23 8-9
3. Projected Enrollments by Grade 2018-2019 to 2022-23 10
4. Enrollment History and Projections by Grade 1975-76 to 2022-23 11-12
5. Comparison of Actual and Projected Five-Year Enrollment Change 13
6. Percent of Change by Grade Span 2011-2012 to 2022-23 14
7. Actual System Enrollment Change 1977-78 to 2017-18 15
8. Actual Elementary School Enrollment Change 1981-82 to 2017-18 16
9. Actual Secondary School Enrollment Change 1984-85 to 2017-18 17
10. Resident Births to Kindergarten Ratios 20
11. Projection History for 2017-2018 2112. Comparison of Projected with Actual 2016-17 and 2017-18 Enrollment 22
13. Actual and Projected Enrollments by School 2017-2018 23-24
14. Actual and Projected K-12 Enrollments 2012-13 to 2022-23 25
15. Enrollments by Grade 2016-17 and 2017-18 30
16. Historical Cohort Survival Ratios by Grade 31
17. Percent of Change by Elementary School 2011-12 to 2022-23 32-35
18. Percent of Change by Middle School 2011-12 to 2022-23 36
19. Percent of Change by High School 2011-12 to 2022-23 37
20. Exiting Elementary School Students 2016-17 81
21. Exiting Middle School Students 2016-17 82
22. Exiting High School Students 2016-17 82
23. Total Student Exits 2014-15 through 2016-17 83
24. History of Exits to Non-Public Schools 2010-11 to 2016-17 84
25. Entering Elementary School Students 2016-17 and 2017-18 as of October 1, 2017 86
26. Entering Middle School Students 2016-17 and 2017-18 as of October 1, 2017 86
27. Entering High School Students 2016-17 and 2017-18 as of October 1, 2017 87
28. Non-Public/Private School Students by Grade (2017 Census) 91
29. Non-Public/Private School by School (2017 Census) 92
30. Special Educations Students Tuitioned-out (2017 Census) 93
Appendix A – Student Population Detail PAGE
1. Student Demographics 94-97
2. Preschool Students 98
3. METCO Enrollment by School and Grade 99
4. English Language Learners Enrollment 100
5. English Language Learners Enrollment by Language 102
6. Students Receiving Special Education Services 103-104
7. Number of Non-resident Students 105
Appendix B – City of Newton Population
8. City of Newton Population Growth 106
Appendix C – Residential Property Data
9. Residential Property Sales by Elementary District 107
10. Properties Listed for Sale in Newton by Elementary District 108
Appendix D – NESDEC Enrollment Projections
11. NESDEC’s Enrollment Projections vs. Newton’s 109
Appendix E – School Districts and Buffer Zones
12. Elementary Students by District with Buffer Zones 110-111
13. Total Enrollment by High School Feeder Patterns 112
14. Current Elementary, Middle and High School District Maps 113-115
Appendix F – Residential Development
15. Residential Development Scenarios for Enrollment in Newton Public Schools 116
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2017-18 ENROLLMENT ANALYSIS
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Newton Public Schools system-wide K-12 enrollment has increased this year, marking the thirteenth year in a trend of rising enrollments with 1,482 students (13%) added from 2004 to 2017. The initial years of growth from 2004 – 2009 brought 339 students to the system. The next five years through 2014 added another 896 students to the district, and was the period of steepest growth in this thirteen year trend. The 2015-16 year had enrollment that held steady. Since 2015, enrollment has grown another 242 students, with most of the growth occurring at the secondary level, while elementary enrollment has stabilized. Current 2017-18 enrollment of 12,750 students has risen by 93 students from last year, with growth at all levels, although the highest growth is again at the high school level. On average, the district has had 1% growth per year since 2004. In the current enrollment projections through 2022-23, the district is projected have slower growth of less than 1% per year.
This is the third year with lower kindergarten enrollment, which noticeably decreases the elementary projections over the next five years. Even with a kindergarten class under 900 students, continuing strong cohort growth in first and second grade continues to result in elementary grades well over 900 students, with grades 1 through 5 enrolled at 964 on average over the next five years. Today’s class of 850 kindergarten students is projected to grow to 933 students by 2022 (when this class is in fifth grade). Currently, there are two large grades of over 1,000 students in elementary school. The largest cohort, currently in third grade with 1,041 students, is the biggest elementary school class since 1978; by 2019, this class is expected to grow to 1,057 students. In 2020, when this class moves to sixth grade, elementary enrollment decreases to 5,673 students. These primary growth factors – the size of the incoming class, the size of the outgoing class, and cohort growth – combine to produce the projected enrollments. Newton’s elementary enrollment is projected to decrease in five years to 5,627 students, whereas prior projections from the past five years have been close to 5,800 students.
The middle schools have grown by 415 students (17%) from 2007 to the present. In 2007, classes were on average 817 students; today classes average 956 students. The overall middle school growth trend is impacted by the arrival of the oversized elementary cohorts in 2019 and 2020, with growth of 4% (124 students) expected over the next five years. The high school growth trend that began in 2012 has resulted in an additional 490 students (14%). This is the second year that there is a high school grade of more than 1,000 students (grade 12) and is the largest since 1983. During the next five years, there will be only four instances that any high school grade is expected to be enrolled at fewer than 1,000 students. Growth at the secondary level since 2007 is the result of movement through the system of the earlier elementary growth. Over the next five years, high school growth of 146 students (4%) is expected.
This school year has seen an increase in enrollment for students currently enrolled as English Language Learners (ELL); there has been growth in the program of 246 students (39%) over ten years. There are 881 ELL students in 2017-18; 616 elementary students are English Learners (11% of the elementary population). The percentage of students receiving special education services is stable at 19.0% this year compared to 19.1% in 2016.
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The Newton Early Childhood Program (NECP) currently enrolls 198 preschool children in early childhood classrooms or in therapeutic services; enrollment typically increases during the course of the year. Special education students enrolled in out-of-district special education schools total 139 students this year. Including these students, the district’s full enrollment totals almost 13,000 students. Section V on Student Exits and Entrances and Appendix A on Student Population Detail contain additional information on preschool and out-placed special education student populations.
The K-12 district current enrollment of 12,750 is slightly below the projection of 12,787 students made in November 2016, with a system-wide variance from projection of -37 students, or -0.3%. All three levels are enrolled at lower than anticipated numbers in 2017-18, with -21, -4, and -12 fewer students than projected at the elementary, middle, and high schools, respectively. With the exception of the 2015-16 school year (when the variance was -1.4%), system-wide variances from projection have been small, typically around one-half of one percent in recent years. In the past 5 years, and including the current year, Newton has had three negative variances when actual district enrollment has been lower than projected and three positive variances when the actual enrollment has been higher than projected.
This report details changes in enrollments by school since last year. It reviews current enrollments as compared with the November 2016 projections, and projects enrollments using five-year historical data considered in the context of local trends in real estate sales, new developments, student mobility, birth data, census data, housing trends and other factors. There are now two full years of experience built into the projection model associated with changes to Newton Public Schools elementary student assignment policies, approved in September 2015. Actual 2017-18 enrollments presented in this report have changed slightly from the Preliminary Enrollment Report in October 2017, with a net decrease of two students.
Future Enrollment The traditional cohort survival method of enrollment projections using five-year historical data yields the projections for grades 1 through 12 on the following chart. The 2017-18 kindergarten projection has been calculated using a straight four-year average of previous kindergarten enrollments. This is the same basic methodology that has been used since 2013 with a slightly more conservative approach for projecting kindergarten. Using a 4-year average instead of a 5-year average for kindergarten omits one of three peak kindergarten enrollment years, which lowers the projection. See Section II entitled Enrollment Projection Method for more information and discussion of the full methodology used in this year’s forecast.
ActualLevel 2017-18 2018-19 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23
Elementary 5,824 5,816 5,740 5,673 5,657 5,627 Middle 2,868 2,852 2,910 3,009 3,011 2,992 High School 4,058 4,112 4,150 4,143 4,181 4,204 Total 12,750 12,780 12,800 12,825 12,849 12,823
* The projections include a separate forecast for kindergarten based on a straight four-year average of previous kindergarten enrollments.
Projections Using 5 Year Ratios*
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The Report
Each section of the report provides detail on current enrollment and projections as follows:
I. Enrollment Trends for the System, Elementary and Secondary – an in-depth look at system-wide and grade distribution projections.
II. Enrollment Projection Method, Accuracy of Projections and Frequently Asked Questions – an overview that provides answers to commonly asked questions about the methodology.
III. Enrollment History – a discussion of past enrollment trends for the district and for the elementary, middle, and high school grade configurations.
IV. Individual School Reports – a report on current and projected enrollments by school and by grade and/or program.
V. Student Exits and Entrances – data on student mobility in the 2016-17 school year, as well as preliminary entrance information on the 2017-18 year.
VI. Non-Public School/Private School Enrollments – data on Newton school age children who are eligible to attend Newton’s schools but are enrolled outside the district and at private schools.
Appendices A through F
Basic demographic information Data on preschool students Students in the METCO program English Language Learners and students receiving special education services City of Newton population growth by age group Current residential properties for sale in Newton by elementary school district and
historical residential property sales New England School Development Council’s (NESDEC) enrollment projections for
Newton, discussed in detail in Section II Elementary school students by district with buffer zones Enrollment by high school feeder patterns Current elementary, middle and high school district maps Scenarios for enrollment from permitted residential developments
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I. ENROLLMENT TRENDS
System-wide Projections
Elementary Projections
Secondary Projections
National, State and Local Trends
Rental Housing Complexes
Housing Trends in Newton
Trends in Housing Patterns of District Families
Real Estate Sales
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Elementary Projections
Today’s kindergarten enrollment of 850 students is the third class of fewer than 900 students since 2012. The years 2012 through 2014 saw record breaking high kindergarten classes of 934, 958 and 938 students; the two prior years also had large classes of just under 900 students. Elementary enrollment is projected to decrease from 5,824 students to 5,816 students next year, and to further decrease in five years to 5,627 students. Enrollment projections are dependent on current student counts and trends from the past five years. With recent experience of lower kindergarten enrollment and two classes of more than 1,000 students moving on to middle school in 2019 and 2020, elementary enrollment is trending lower. Since 2003-04, the population of elementary students has grown by a total of 886 students, or 18%. The average size of the kindergarten classes over the prior five years is 902 students (down from 918 students last year); the four year average of kindergarten classes is 888 students and the three year average is 871 students. Please refer to Section II for the kindergarten projection methodology for further information on the kindergarten projections which typically are the most variable and challenging to project.
For the elementary school projections by grade and by school and other enrollment details, please refer to Section IV, Individual School Reports. Several schools continue to see the impact of the student assignment changes approved in September 2015. Angier and Zervas are projected to have increased enrollments as these new schools with expanded capacity accept students from crowded schools where enrollment consequently is projected to decrease, including Bowen, Burr, Countryside, Mason-Rice and Ward. Student assignment policy changes for the Angier and Zervas school districts, as well as those of nearby schools, are fully integrated into the forecast.
Appendix E, Table 12 lists student enrollment in buffer zones by school for this school year and last. The use of buffer zones has been an effective way to ameliorate space constraints at the elementary schools and balance class sizes. Since 2011, buffer zones have been used by school administration to determine space availability requests between the schools in the district. Once a student from a buffer zone is placed in a school, he/she will follow the same feeder pattern as peers in that school. Table 12 displays each buffer zone and, for more recently created zones, notes the year the zone was developed.
Secondary Projections
Middle school enrollment increased by 8 students in 2017-18, and is projected to decrease in 2018 by 16 students and then increase by 141 students by 2020 when the current large grades 3 and 4 arrive. Much of this growth will be moving from Mason-Rice to Brown. Over the next five years, middle school enrollment is projected to grow by an additional 124 students to 2,992 students, an increase of 4%. In 2020, grades 6 and 7 are both projected to be over 1,000 students; there has not been a middle school grade over 1,000 students since 1980.
High school enrollment has surpassed 4,000 students this year, growing by 62 students since last year, and is expected to continue to increase for the next five years. By 2022-23, a net increase of 146 high school students is expected. Both high schools will increase over the next five years; enrollment projections show Newton North High School will increase by 70 students, or +3%, and Newton South High School will increase by 76 students, or +4%. The difference in enrollment between the two high schools is forecast to be 266 students in 2022. Secondary data showing past, present and projected enrollments are presented in Table 9.
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National, State and Local Trends
Although the U.S. Census Bureau continues to rank Massachusetts low in expected school age population growth from 2000-2030, Newton’s enrollment projections and those of other communities near Boston are not typical of Massachusetts; enrollment in the Newton Public Schools and in many nearby districts continues to increase. The chart below shows the status of district enrollments for several nearby towns over the most recent available five-year time period from 2012-13 to 2016-17. Among the towns sampled below, communities like Newton that have fairly central locations within the Greater Boston metropolitan area show growth, while others that are further south or west show enrollments that are level or decreasing.
Since the 2010 United States Census, the population of the City of Newton has increased by 1,300 residents, growing to over 85,000. Appendix B, Table 8 compares City of Newton data from the 2010 United States Census to the 2000 United States Census by age range; the 1990 Census is also shown.
On a national and regional level, the 2010 Census reported 308.7 million people in the United States, a 10% increase from the 2000 Census population of 281.4 million as compared to ten year population growth of only 2% in Newton and 3% statewide. The national increase of 10% over the last decade was lower than the 13% increase of the 1990’s and is similar to the magnitude of growth in the 1980’s. Nationally, 24% of the United States population is less than 18 years of age, 7% of which accounts for children under five years old. This reflects a national school age demographic of 18% of the total population; in contrast, the school age demographic for both Massachusetts and Newton is 16%.
Rental Housing Complexes
Newton has two new residential complexes close to receiving permanent occupancy permits; Kessler Woods, a 42-acre site on the West Roxbury and Brookline border with 88 units, and Court Street in Newtonville near the Washington Street corridor with 36 units. Austin Street redevelopment with 68 units is scheduled to begin construction this spring, with a ground breaking anticipated in March 2018 and a construction time frame anticipated to be 15 months.
Preliminary enrollment estimates, based on experience ratios from three large complexes in Newton, have been made for these three complexes - students have been added to the projections for Memorial-Spaulding, Cabot, Day, and Oak Hill as well as to the high schools. These additions to enrollment are phased, assuming that each development reaches full occupancy within three years of completion. A table that shows the calculation related to each project can be found in Appendix F, Table 15.
School Year Belmont Brookline Lexington Natick Newton Needham Wellesley Westwood Wayland Weston2016-17 4,470 7,446 7,015 5,354 12,657 5,588 4,917 3,125 2,655 2,1112012-13 3,994 6,836 6,478 4,963 12,170 5,409 4,855 3,120 2,707 2,322Change 476 610 537 391 487 179 62 5 -52 -211Percent 12% 9% 8% 8% 4% 3% 1% 0% -2% -9%Enrollment as of October 1, 2016
Five Year K-12 Enrollment Change in Surrounding Districts
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Newton Public Schools continues to track enrollments at the three largest residential complexes in Newton. Total enrollments by school for three large residential rental communities are shown in the following table; enrollments have become fairly stable at these complexes with net changes of 10 to 20 students per year. There is an overall net increase from the prior year of eighteen students.
Avalon at Newton Highlands, a 294-unit apartment complex which opened in 2003, has the highest population of students, with 108 students enrolled in the Newton Public Schools. Avalon at Chestnut Hill, a 204-unit apartment complex which opened in 2006, has 80 students enrolled in the Newton Public Schools. Arborpoint at Woodland Station, a 2007 transit-oriented 180-unit rental complex, has 51 students enrolled in the district. About half of the students at the three complexes are elementary students and half attend middle or high school; there are also 64 students enrolled in private school.
Newton Public Schools works with the city’s Planning and Development Department to monitor residential development proposals with a potential impact on school enrollment. The status for a number of residential development projects with at least 10 units of housing is provided below (as of November 1, 2017).
School
Avalon at Newton
Highlands (294 Units)
Avalon at Chestnut Hill
(204 Units)
Arborpoint at Woodland
Station (180 Units)
Total
Angier Elementary School 5 5Bowen Elementary School 7 7Cabot Elementary School 1 1Countryside Elementary School 27 1 28Memorial-Spaulding Elementary 25 25Peirce Elementary School 17 17Williams Elementary School 12 12Zervas Elementary School 25 25All Elementary 57 33 30 120Brown 17 2 19Day 2 3 5Oak Hill 22 22Newton North 1 1 9 11Newton South 31 24 7 62All Secondary 51 47 21 119
Total Newton Public Schools 108 80 51 239
Prior Year Total (2016-17) 102 71 48 221Change from Prior Year 6 9 3 18
Private School Students 23 32 9 64
Enrollment at Newton's Largest Rental Housing Complexes (2017-18)
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Special permits were approved in the past year for several small projects and one larger project. The Washington Place development, located at Washington Street and Walnut Street, received special permit approval in June for a mixed use project including 161 housing units, with 25% affordable units including some designated ‘workforce’ housing. Potential additional student enrollment is not yet incorporated into the current five-year projection for these projects as additional students are only built into the five-year enrollment forecast when a building permit is issued. Housing Trends in Newton
The table below shows the housing types in Newton in the year before the current enrollment growth trend began (2003-04, FY04) and compares these housing types to those available in Newton today. According to the City Assessor’s office, the greatest change during this time in Newton’s housing stock has been an increase of 1,518 condominium properties, which is growth of 44%. Condominiums have been the result of both conversions of existing properties such as two- or three-family homes (which have decreased since FY04) as well as new construction or additions. Single family home types have been the most stable segment of the housing stock in Newton during this period.
Proposed Residential Development Total Units Affordable Units Status as of November 1, 2018Kessler Woods 88 13 (15%) Construction complete, Temp. Occupancy PermitCourt Street, 75-83 36 9 (25%) Construction complete, Temp. Occupancy PermitAustin Street 68 17 (25%) Construction in spring 2018Beacon Street, 1521 8 2 (25%) Special permit approved, Building permit applicationMelrose Street, 283 - Turtle Lane Playhouse 16 4 (15%) Special permit approved; Building permit pending429 Cherry Street 13 3 (23%) Special permit approved; Building permit pendingWashington Place (Washington & Walnut) 161 40 (15%, 10%) Special permit approved; Building permit pending392-404 Langley Road 20 4 (25%) Special permit appliction 200-230 Boylston Street 100 25 (25%) Permit application (2nd phase Chestnut Hill Square)Needham Street 950 238 (25%) In conceptual developmentCrescent Street 8 4 (50%) In conceptual developmentBeacon Street, 1615 23 6 (25%) Zoning Board denied comprehensive permit; In litigationWells Avenue, 135 334 84 (25%) Denied, in litigationRiverside 290 44 (15%) Delayed by MBTARowe Street, 70 150 30 (20%) Withdrawn
Housing Type FY04 % of Total in FY04 FY18 % of Total in FY18#
Change %
Change
Single Family 16,885 69% 16,959 67% 74 0.4%
Condominium 3,489 14% 5,007 20% 1,518 44%
Two Family 3,224 13% 2,757 11% -467 -14%
Three Family 308 1% 272 1% -36 -12%
Apartment Buildings 176 1% 153 1% -23 -13%
Mixed Use 296 1% 238 1% -58 -20%
TOTAL PROPERTIES 24,378 100% 25,386 100% 1,008 4%Source: Newton Assessor's Office
City of Newton Housing Types
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Trends in Housing Patterns of District Families
There have also been shifts in the housing patterns of families with Newton Public School children. According to Geographic Information System data that matches school students to housing types, families are living in new types of housing that have become available in Newton. While a similar number of school children live in single family homes in 2017 as in 2002 (268 more students), the percentage of school children living in single family homes has declined from 73% to 65% because of enrollment growth during this time period. Conversely, there has been an increase from 5% to 12% in the percentage of school children living in condominiums. This represents a real increase of almost 1,000 students living in condominiums today compared to 2002. This data illustrates that families of Newton school children today are more likely to live in condominiums and apartments than in 2002.
Real Estate Sales
According to data obtained from City of Newton records, there were 1,091 residential property sales in calendar year 2016 versus 1,213 in the prior year. Calendar year 2014 had the highest number of property sales of the last ten years, at 1,311. (See Appendix C, Table 9.) Through the first eight months of 2017, real estate sales totaled 927 as compared with 781 (19% growth) for the same period one year ago. Appendix C, Table 9 shows the data by school district, making clear the differences in total property sales by neighborhood.
Additional information is provided in Table 10 of Appendix C with properties listed for sale by school district in Newton as of November 2017; there are twenty three fewer properties listed for sale in Newton this year as compared to one year ago. Seventy two percent of properties listed for sale in Newton are single family homes with nine out of every ten homes having four or more bedrooms. The three columns to the far right of the exhibit show the percentages by type of property on the market by school district. For example, in the Memorial-Spaulding School district, 86% of properties listed for sale are single family and 14% are condominiums while in the Bowen School district, 33% of properties for sale are single family, and 67% are condominiums. There are no multi-family homes for sale at the present time.
Type of Housing 2002% of Resident
Students2017
% of Resident Students*
Change #
Change %
Single Family 7,777 73% 8,045 65% 268 3%Two/Three Family 1,671 16% 1,856 15% 185 11%Condominiums 526 5% 1,513 12% 987 188%Apartment Buildings 251 2% 588 5% 337 134%Mixed Use / Other 389 4% 377 3% -12 -3%Total 10,614 100% 12,379 100% 1,765 333%* Preschool - Grade 12
Source: Newton Geographic Information Systems
Newton Public School Children by Housing Type
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TABLE 1PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY SCHOOL
2018-19 TO 2022-23
Spec. Actual Projections Using 5 Year Average Ratios**School Ed.* FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23Angier 467 480 490 489 488 470Bowen 421 410 369 374 376 372Burr 386 382 359 343 330 336Cabot 391 381 381 392 397 405Countryside 410 411 405 394 384 383Franklin 434 443 439 430 439 429Horace Mann 404 401 392 395 387 383Lincoln-Eliot 374 380 374 381 385 381Mason-Rice 512 497 472 437 417 418Memorial-Spaulding 453 466 471 461 459 463Peirce 276 269 272 256 258 259Underwood 284 280 278 263 267 267Ward 309 299 291 286 285 280Williams 296 285 293 299 290 295Zervas 407 432 454 473 495 486TOTAL ELEMENTARY (0) 5,824 5,816 5,740 5,673 5,657 5,627Bigelow 521 516 527 554 535 538Brown 753 733 757 815 842 843Day 980 978 992 975 964 948Oak Hill 614 625 634 665 670 663TOTAL MIDDLE (0) 2,868 2,852 2,910 3,009 3,011 2,992Newton North (71) 2,165 2,170 2,154 2,200 2,235 2,235Newton South (15) 1,893 1,942 1,996 1,943 1,946 1,969TOTAL HIGH SCHOOL (86) 4,058 4,112 4,150 4,143 4,181 4,204GRAND TOTAL (86) 12,750 12,780 12,800 12,825 12,849 12,823*Enrollment numbers and projections include students who receive special education services outside the regular classroom for a significant amount of time.**Four-year averages of previous kindergarten enrollments are used to project kindergarten enrollment.
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256
232
218
264
236
229
211
204
210
238
249
260
304
299
302
323
275
294
287
292
273
256
Cab
ot53
919
6740
638
837
334
931
530
641
035
134
233
633
736
236
238
742
444
947
047
344
343
142
041
741
239
3C
arr
401
1963
295
290
271
269
235
Cla
flin
420
1960
349
314
283
253
231
215
Cou
ntry
side
557
1959
302
302
231
218
349
338
347
316
303
379
394
418
436
451
458
474
500
497
461
477
446
449
469
493
Dav
is35
219
6127
927
327
625
624
7E
mer
son
345
1955
276
245
222
201
Fra
nklin
601
1961
460
445
420
388
389
478
399
394
388
345
338
334
331
347
364
382
361
360
332
350
346
366
379
407
Ham
ilton
222
1960
144
147
126
Hor
ace
Man
n42
720
1329
527
025
222
821
631
730
128
726
126
825
824
927
628
729
932
331
832
428
528
829
428
227
329
7H
yde
669
1952
385
352
350
364
351
341
314
310
301
Linc
oln-
Elio
t43
519
7036
836
134
228
624
432
030
826
923
724
624
223
925
024
928
531
633
835
229
330
633
334
532
132
5M
ason
-Ric
e62
019
6247
544
542
841
038
436
034
932
128
641
840
241
941
942
343
645
947
548
639
541
740
539
739
541
2M
emor
ial
536
1953
181
152
Mem
oria
l-Spa
uldi
ng48
619
9237
234
930
930
930
128
426
437
238
240
141
541
844
544
945
248
642
646
947
745
445
244
8O
ak H
ill E
lem
enta
ry45
019
6231
030
432
334
130
427
426
823
020
7P
eirc
e42
919
6039
036
234
134
534
935
535
530
229
029
126
625
325
326
728
228
327
229
227
027
025
925
028
128
2S
paul
ding
587
1961
268
253
Und
erw
ood
582
1970
497
463
437
411
392
373
328
293
308
291
292
264
280
277
283
303
310
302
295
311
283
285
282
267
War
d50
619
7149
950
042
840
437
133
430
227
825
828
627
931
232
535
435
137
237
838
633
034
236
636
033
531
9W
illia
ms
375
1969
311
281
272
298
258
235
214
209
213
223
221
219
216
238
244
255
284
302
271
261
254
288
269
260
Zer
vas
(for
mer
ly B
eeth
oven
)35
019
6428
728
624
223
924
023
822
720
921
327
828
125
826
627
328
029
032
032
530
230
328
828
728
731
1P
eabo
dy (
SP
ED
)37
To
tal
Ele
m7,
898
7,45
56,
993
6,61
96,
144
5,79
05,
359
4,94
84,
749
4,66
24,
662
4,73
54,
851
5,00
75,
297
5,50
35,
647
5,80
55,
216
5,36
35,
309
5,31
85,
260
5,29
3C
hang
e-1
79-4
43-4
62-3
74-4
75-3
54-4
31-4
11-1
99-8
70
7311
615
629
020
614
415
8-5
8914
7-5
49
-58
33%
Cha
nge
-2.2
%-5
.6%
-6.2
%-5
.3%
-7.2
%-5
.8%
-7.4
%-7
.7%
-4.0
%-1
.8%
0.0%
1.6%
2.4%
3.2%
5.8%
3.9%
2.6%
2.8%
-10.
1%2.
8%-1
.0%
0.2%
-1.1
%0.
6%T
otal
# E
lem
Sch
ools
2323
2221
2018
1717
1715
1515
1515
1515
1515
1515
1515
1515
Big
elow
612
1996
589
572
575
529
517
503
482
537
425
350
168
534
567
590
612
522
483
Bro
wn
(for
mer
ly M
eado
wbr
ook)
1,02
419
6480
082
384
282
281
085
863
665
461
560
059
757
054
855
752
850
862
868
998
994
094
597
464
574
9D
ay94
720
1378
080
477
872
472
473
477
484
765
260
465
470
968
468
073
079
777
277
075
579
480
885
682
380
4O
ak H
ill M
iddl
e63
420
1357
257
8W
arre
n1,
270
1969
883
884
846
763
681
629
606
419
Wee
ks1,
033
1960
675
663
625
563
458
287
To
tal
Mid
dle
Sch
oo
l3,
727
3,74
63,
666
3,40
13,
190
3,01
12,
498
2,45
71,
692
1,55
41,
419
1,27
91,
232
1,23
71,
258
1,30
51,
400
1,45
92,
278
2,30
12,
343
2,44
22,
562
2,61
4C
hang
e-9
119
-80
-265
-211
-179
-513
-41
-765
-138
-135
-140
-47
521
4795
5981
923
4299
120
52%
Cha
nge
-2.4
%0.
5%-2
.1%
-7.2
%-6
.2%
-5.6
%-1
7.0%
-1.6
%-3
1.1%
-8.2
%-8
.7%
-9.9
%-3
.7%
0.4%
1.7%
3.7%
7.3%
4.2%
56.1
%1.
0%1.
8%4.
2%4.
9%2.
0%T
otal
# M
iddl
e S
choo
ls5
55
55
54
43
33
22
22
22
23
33
34
4
Nor
th2,
976
1972
2,88
52,
741
2,68
52,
621
2,58
42,
471
2,27
52,
075
2,65
92,
540
2,39
02,
195
1,98
31,
771
1,61
71,
589
1,62
31,
691
1,75
71,
765
1,80
81,
867
1,9
112,
019
Sou
th1,
784
2007
1,33
21,
300
1,21
11,
178
1,13
21,
154
1,50
31,
418
1,31
11,
298
1,22
91,
226
1,17
41,
127
1,10
41,
091
1,05
81,
055
1,10
91,
142
1,22
01,
223
1,2
111,
240
To
tal
Hig
h S
cho
ol
4,21
74,
041
3,89
63,
799
3,71
63,
625
3,77
83,
493
3,97
03,
838
3,61
93,
421
3,15
72,
898
2,72
12,
680
2,68
12,
746
2,86
62,
907
3,02
83,
090
3,12
23,
259
Cha
nge
-40
-176
-145
-97
-83
-91
153
-285
477
-132
-219
-198
-264
-259
-177
-41
165
120
4112
162
3213
7%
Cha
nge
-0.9
%-4
.2%
-3.6
%-2
.5%
-2.2
%-2
.4%
4.2%
-7.5
%13
.7%
-3.3
%-5
.7%
-5.5
%-7
.7%
-8.2
%-6
.1%
-1.5
%0.
0%2.
4%4.
4%1.
4%4.
2%2.
0%1.
0%4.
4%
Gra
nd
To
tal
15,8
4215
,242
14,5
5513
,819
13,0
5012
,426
11,6
3510
,898
10,4
1110
,054
9,70
09,
435
9,24
09,
142
9,27
69,
488
9,72
810
,010
10,3
6010
,571
10,6
8010
,850
10,9
4411
,166
Cha
nge
-310
-600
-687
-736
-769
-624
-791
-737
-487
-357
-354
-265
-195
-98
134
212
240
282
350
211
109
170
9422
2%
Cha
nge
-1.9
%-3
.8%
-4.5
%-5
.1%
-5.6
%-4
.8%
-6.4
%-6
.3%
-4.5
%-3
.4%
-3.5
%-2
.7%
-2.1
%-1
.1%
1.5%
2.3%
2.5%
2.9%
3.5%
2.0%
1.0%
1.6%
0.9%
2.0%
* A
ster
isk
deno
tes
chan
ge
in g
rade
pat
tern
an
d/or
sch
ool c
onso
lidat
ion.
- 8 -
TA
BL
E 2
New
ton
Pub
lic S
choo
lsE
nro
llmen
t H
isto
ry a
nd P
roje
ctio
ns b
y S
choo
l1
97
5 t
o 2
02
1
Sch
ool N
ame
Pea
k E
nro
llP
eak
Yea
rA
ngie
r75
219
53B
owen
502
2013
Bur
r49
619
67C
abot
539
1967
Car
r40
119
63C
lafli
n42
019
60C
ount
rysi
de55
719
59D
avis
352
1961
Em
erso
n34
519
55F
rank
lin60
119
61H
amilt
on22
219
60H
orac
e M
ann
427
2013
Hyd
e66
919
52Li
ncol
n-E
liot
435
1970
Mas
on-R
ice
620
1962
Mem
oria
l53
619
53M
emor
ial-S
paul
ding
486
1992
Oak
Hill
Ele
men
tary
450
1962
Pei
rce
429
1960
Spa
uldi
ng58
719
61U
nder
woo
d58
219
70W
ard
506
1971
Will
iam
s37
519
69Z
erva
s (f
orm
erly
Bee
thov
en)
350
1964
Pea
body
(S
PE
D)
To
tal
Ele
mC
hang
e%
Cha
nge
Tot
al #
Ele
m S
choo
ls
Big
elow
612
1996
Bro
wn
(for
mer
ly M
eado
wbr
ook)
1,02
419
64D
ay94
720
13O
ak H
ill M
iddl
e63
420
13W
arre
n1,
270
1969
Wee
ks1,
033
1960
To
tal
Mid
dle
Sch
oo
lC
hang
e%
Cha
nge
Tot
al #
Mid
dle
Sch
ools
Nor
th2,
976
1972
Sou
th1,
784
2007
To
tal
Hig
h S
cho
ol
Cha
nge
% C
hang
e
Gra
nd
To
tal
Cha
nge
% C
hang
e
* A
ster
isk
deno
tes
chan
ge
in g
rade
pat
tern
an
d/or
sch
ool c
onso
lidat
ion.
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
412
418
412
396
371
363
370
379
401
392
389
375
395
408
417
402
409
421
467
480
490
489
488
470
377
383
351
336
335
375
386
413
428
435
454
449
448
477
502
475
449
417
421
410
369
374
376
372
278
270
294
300
303
314
314
333
331
369
379
391
409
415
424
424
412
402
386
382
359
343
330
336
385
362
360
352
353
357
391
420
424
425
449
452
440
420
419
418
403
400
391
381
381
392
397
405
499
482
453
455
446
448
463
437
447
479
472
499
490
479
457
466
450
436
410
411
405
394
384
383
389
390
398
384
397
386
385
414
401
396
402
397
401
396
389
413
424
446
434
443
439
430
439
429
301
303
313
330
333
337
344
350
348
370
371
373
386
394
427
434
412
417
404
401
392
395
387
383
285
281
252
220
242
229
282
281
293
284
291
293
317
322
329
337
340
346
374
380
374
381
385
381
393
364
369
364
352
365
372
372
410
422
428
442
437
438
457
478
492
507
512
497
472
437
417
418
462
452
417
440
447
427
419
443
449
442
438
459
458
464
429
434
452
454
453
466
471
461
459
463
271
281
270
271
271
286
306
324
329
338
329
318
316
337
312
306
314
299
276
269
272
256
258
259
278
264
276
294
276
275
264
288
295
282
262
282
289
310
327
341
326
313
284
280
278
263
267
267
343
325
304
281
274
262
262
237
247
260
260
269
278
301
289
304
304
313
309
299
291
286
285
280
258
241
257
260
254
264
275
295
281
276
277
298
302
304
304
292
290
293
296
285
293
299
290
295
281
281
276
287
284
287
300
332
324
328
326
349
321
325
317
309
308
337
407
432
454
473
495
486
5,21
25,
097
5,00
24,
970
4,93
84,
975
5,13
35,
318
5,40
85,
498
5,52
75,
646
5,68
75,
790
5,79
95,
833
5,78
55,
801
5,82
45,
816
5,74
05,
673
5,65
75,
627
-81
-115
-95
-32
-32
3715
818
590
9029
119
4110
39
34-4
816
23-8
-76
-67
-16
-30
-1.5
%-2
.2%
-1.9
%-0
.6%
-0.6
%0.
7%3.
2%3.
6%1.
7%1.
7%0.
5%2.
2%0.
7%1.
8%0.
2%0.
6%-0
.8%
0.3%
0.4%
-0.1
%-1
.3%
-1.2
%-0
.3%
-0.5
%15
1515
1515
1515
1515
1515
1515
1515
1515
1515
1515
1515
15
446
465
477
513
520
510
496
495
487
505
527
523
533
531
525
504
509
525
521
516
527
554
535
538
771
752
735
756
770
787
705
665
644
681
684
666
677
698
743
738
780
774
753
733
757
815
842
843
804
835
855
822
785
758
768
747
764
747
773
758
845
874
947
932
927
922
980
978
992
975
964
948
619
620
621
597
598
565
565
567
558
547
572
603
612
616
634
632
602
639
614
625
634
665
670
663
2,64
02,
672
2,68
82,
688
2,67
32,
620
2,53
42,
474
2,45
32,
480
2,55
62,
550
2,66
72,
719
2,84
92,
806
2,81
82,
860
2,86
82,
852
2,91
03,
009
3,01
12,
992
2632
160
-15
-53
-86
-60
-21
2776
-611
752
130
-43
1242
8-1
658
992
-19
1.0%
1.2%
0.6%
0.0%
-0.6
%-2
.0%
-3.3
%-2
.4%
-0.8
%1.
1%3.
1%-0
.2%
4.6%
1.9%
4.8%
-1.5
%0.
4%1.
5%0.
3%-0
.6%
2.0%
3.4%
0.1%
-0.6
%4
44
44
44
44
44
44
44
44
44
44
44
4
2,12
32,
144
2,19
02,
219
2,16
92,
121
2,04
71,
964
1,91
11,
829
1,80
21,
871
1,87
71,
940
2,01
52,
060
2,10
72,
145
2,16
52,
170
2,15
42,
200
2,23
52,
235
1,27
31,
333
1,37
01,
399
1,48
71,
552
1,70
11,
745
1,78
41,
763
1,72
21,
708
1,69
11,
721
1,77
81,
804
1,79
81,
851
1,89
31,
942
1,99
61,
943
1,94
61,
969
3,39
63,
477
3,56
03,
618
3,65
63,
673
3,74
83,
709
3,69
53,
592
3,52
43,
579
3,56
83,
661
3,79
33,
864
3,90
53,
996
4,05
84,
112
4,15
04,
143
4,18
14,
204
137
8183
5838
1775
-39
-14
-103
-68
55-1
193
132
7141
9162
5438
-738
234.
2%2.
4%2.
4%1.
6%1.
1%0.
5%2.
0%-1
.0%
-0.4
%-2
.8%
-1.9
%1.
6%-0
.3%
2.6%
3.6%
1.9%
1.1%
2.3%
1.6%
1.3%
0.9%
-0.2
%0.
9%0.
6%
11,2
4811
,246
11,2
5011
,276
11,2
6711
,268
11,4
1511
,501
11,5
5611
,570
11,6
0711
,775
11,9
2212
,170
12,4
4112
,503
12,5
0812
,657
12,7
5012
,780
12,8
001
2,82
512
,849
12,8
2382
-24
26-9
114
786
5514
3716
814
724
827
162
514
993
3020
2524
-26
0.7%
0.0%
0.0%
0.2%
-0.1
%0.
0%1.
3%0.
8%0.
5%0.
1%0.
3%1.
4%1.
2%2.
1%2.
2%0.
5%0.
0%1.
2%0.
7%0.
2%0.
2%0.
2%0.
2%-0
.2%
Pro
ject
ed
- 9 -
Actual Projections Using 5 Year Average Ratios**Grade FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
K 850 885 875 886 880 8831 966 901 935 942 944 9392 960 978 908 945 949 9553 1041 971 989 917 953 9574 1020 1,050 976 998 923 9605 987 1,031 1,057 985 1,008 933
TOTAL ELEMENTARY 5,824 5,816 5,740 5,673 5,657 5,627 Diff. from Previous Year -8 -76 -67 -16 -30% Change -0.1% -1.3% -1.2% -0.3% -0.5%
6 931 964 1005 1030 962 9887 948 935 966 1008 1035 9638 989 953 939 971 1014 1041
TOTAL MIDDLE 2,868 2,852 2,910 3,009 3,011 2,992Diff. from Previous Year -16 58 99 2 -19% Change -0.6% 2.0% 3.4% 0.1% -0.6%
9 980 1040 1004 987 1020 106310 998 988 1048 1010 993 102611 988 1013 1002 1061 1024 100712 1006 985 1010 999 1058 1022
Spec. Ed. & Post-grads.* 86 86 86 86 86 86TOTAL HIGH 4,058 4,112 4,150 4,143 4,181 4,204Diff. from Previous Year 54 38 -7 38 23% change 1.3% 0.9% -0.2% 0.9% 0.6%GRAND TOTAL 12,750 12,780 12,800 12,825 12,849 12,823Diff. from Previous Year 30 20 25 24 -26% Change 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% -0.2%*Enrollment numbers and projections include students who receive special education services outside the regular classroom for a significant amount of time.**Four-year averages of previous kindergarten enrollments are used to project kindergarten enrollment.
TABLE 3PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
2018-19 TO 2022-23
- 10 -
TA
BL
E 4
New
ton
Pub
lic S
choo
lsE
nrol
lmen
t His
tory
and
Pro
ject
ions
by
Gra
de19
75 to
202
1
Gra
de19
7519
7619
7719
7819
7919
8019
8119
8219
8319
8419
8519
8619
8719
8819
8919
9019
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
97K
946
843
750
681
635
612
628
584
647
673
687
726
730
744
827
809
827
874
906
874
837
870
808
11,
088
1,00
987
380
472
370
265
265
061
768
871
273
474
975
377
385
184
586
592
194
690
487
188
72
1,07
81,
069
1,01
089
281
275
567
864
964
861
069
269
272
573
875
577
685
184
587
991
892
088
787
33
1,11
41,
080
1,04
21,
022
878
819
746
676
667
659
610
680
693
734
770
767
775
859
870
882
895
925
878
41,
116
1,10
31,
073
1,01
91,
002
877
797
739
661
649
642
594
677
705
730
782
763
775
850
869
876
886
923
51,
191
1,10
11,
089
1,05
51,
005
1,00
086
277
469
965
063
463
559
267
869
873
977
275
774
883
884
885
487
3S
PE
D76
5654
5456
4036
4445
4447
6059
6570
6964
6042
3629
2518
To
tal K
-56,
609
6,26
15,
891
5,52
75,
111
4,80
54,
399
4,11
63,
984
3,97
34,
024
4,12
14,
225
4,41
74,
623
4,79
34,
897
5,03
55,
216
5,36
35,
309
5,31
85,
260
Cha
nge
-197
-348
-370
-364
-416
-306
-406
-283
-132
-11
5197
104
192
206
170
104
138
181
147
-54
9-5
8%
Cha
nge
-2.9
%-5
.3%
-5.9
%-6
.2%
-7.5
%-6
.0%
-8.4
%-6
.4%
-3.2
%-0
.3%
1.3%
2.4%
2.5%
4.5%
4.7%
3.7%
2.2%
2.8%
3.6%
2.8%
-1.0
%0.
2%-1
.1%
61,
289
1,19
41,
102
1,09
21,
033
985
960
832
765
689
638
614
626
590
674
710
750
770
746
752
825
833
838
71,
254
1,26
71,
150
1,05
31,
024
982
928
884
787
739
650
610
589
625
599
665
692
717
742
754
729
822
836
81,
215
1,26
91,
258
1,13
11,
053
1,01
195
893
488
478
673
764
161
358
063
461
467
770
772
875
775
474
282
8S
PE
D19
1913
1210
511
1421
2932
2830
3225
2631
3562
3835
4560
To
tal 6
-83,
777
3,74
93,
523
3,28
83,
120
2,98
32,
857
2,66
42,
457
2,24
32,
057
1,89
31,
858
1,82
71,
932
2,01
52,
150
2,22
92,
278
2,30
12,
343
2,44
22,
562
Cha
nge
8-2
8-2
26-2
35-1
68-1
37-1
26-1
93-2
07-2
14-1
86-1
64-3
5-3
110
583
135
7949
2342
9912
0%
Cha
nge
0.2%
-0.7
%-6
.0%
-6.7
%-5
.1%
-4.4
%-4
.2%
-6.8
%-7
.8%
-8.7
%-8
.3%
-8.0
%-1
.8%
-1.7
%5.
7%4.
3%6.
7%3.
7%2.
2%1.
0%1.
8%4.
2%4.
9%
91,
239
1,19
11,
245
1,20
51,
103
1,01
398
996
698
089
880
176
370
065
860
766
664
568
973
477
477
374
977
610
1,36
61,
273
1,22
41,
271
1,22
51,
126
1,02
01,
000
907
964
931
826
753
686
654
615
692
670
709
706
766
762
748
111,
418
1,33
11,
295
1,21
31,
260
1,21
01,
094
1,01
31,
001
916
902
863
788
739
676
656
617
684
687
659
707
759
752
121,
384
1,39
21,
331
1,27
61,
192
1,23
21,
219
1,08
21,
009
987
910
908
849
753
720
675
658
629
675
656
672
695
754
SP
ED
4945
4639
3957
5757
7373
7561
6762
6468
6974
6111
211
012
592
To
tal 9
-12
5,45
65,
232
5,14
15,
004
4,81
94,
638
4,37
94,
118
3,97
03,
838
3,61
93,
421
3,15
72,
898
2,72
12,
680
2,68
12,
746
2,86
62,
907
3,02
83,
090
3,12
2C
hang
e-1
21-2
24-9
1-1
37-1
85-1
81-2
59-2
61-1
48-1
32-2
19-1
98-2
64-2
59-1
77-4
11
6512
041
121
6232
% C
hang
e-2
.2%
-4.1
%-1
.7%
-2.7
%-3
.7%
-3.8
%-5
.6%
-6.0
%-3
.6%
-3.3
%-5
.7%
-5.5
%-7
.7%
-8.2
%-6
.1%
-1.5
%0.
0%2.
4%4.
4%1.
4%4.
2%2.
0%1.
0%
Gra
nd
To
tal
15,8
4215
,242
14,5
5513
,819
13,0
5012
,426
11,6
3510
,898
10,4
1110
,054
9,70
09,
435
9,24
09,
142
9,27
69,
488
9,72
810
,010
10,3
6010
,571
10,6
8010
,850
10,9
44C
hang
e-3
10-6
00-6
87-7
36-7
69-6
24-7
91-7
37-4
87-3
57-3
54-2
65-1
95-9
813
421
224
028
235
021
110
917
094
% C
hang
e-1
.9%
-3.8
%-4
.5%
-5.1
%-5
.6%
-4.8
%-6
.4%
-6.3
%-4
.5%
-3.4
%-3
.5%
-2.7
%-2
.1%
-1.1
%1.
5%2.
3%2.
5%2.
9%3.
5%2.
0%1.
0%1.
6%0.
9%
- 11 -
TA
BL
E 4
New
ton
Pub
lic S
choo
lsE
nrol
lmen
t His
tory
and
Pro
ject
ions
by
Gra
de19
75 to
202
1
Gra
deK 1 2 3 4 5
SP
ED
To
tal K
-5C
hang
e%
Cha
nge
6 7 8S
PE
DT
ota
l 6-8
Cha
nge
% C
hang
e
9 10 11 12S
PE
DT
ota
l 9-1
2C
hang
e%
Cha
nge
Gra
nd
To
tal
Cha
nge
% C
hang
e
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
841
787
736
766
792
796
805
867
887
868
830
862
896
895
934
958
938
877
885
850
885
875
886
880
883
850
866
804
749
805
837
856
853
916
926
950
877
926
940
936
977
999
1,00
594
396
690
193
594
294
493
989
886
785
781
179
582
883
686
889
595
092
498
990
895
696
694
597
999
21,
042
960
978
908
945
949
955
874
901
889
849
815
818
831
860
896
892
962
931
1,00
792
398
198
294
697
71,
005
1,04
197
198
991
795
395
787
688
790
189
685
581
781
984
785
989
790
896
793
21,
017
938
993
980
949
976
1,02
01,
050
976
998
923
960
938
885
894
916
894
832
811
820
851
858
905
884
960
937
1,02
194
499
198
595
098
71,
031
1,05
798
51,
008
933
1619
1615
1410
1718
1417
1917
1719
140
00
00
00
00
5,29
35,
212
5,09
75,
002
4,97
04,
938
4,97
55,
133
5,31
85,
408
5,49
85,
527
5,64
65,
687
5,79
05,
799
5,83
35,
785
5,80
15,
824
5,81
65,
740
5,67
35,
657
5,62
733
-81
-115
-95
-32
-32
3715
818
590
9029
119
4110
39
34-4
816
23-8
-76
-67
-16
-30
0.6%
-1.5
%-2
.2%
-1.9
%-0
.6%
-0.6
%0.
7%3.
2%3.
6%1.
7%1.
7%0.
5%2.
2%0.
7%1.
8%0.
2%0.
6%-0
.8%
0.3%
0.4%
-0.1
%-1
.3%
-1.2
%-0
.3%
-0.5
%
846
911
869
858
916
895
829
804
824
828
829
877
863
922
900
978
922
963
961
931
964
1,00
51,
030
962
988
840
843
930
881
875
902
889
836
810
825
836
826
863
875
922
932
963
912
972
948
935
966
1,00
81,
035
963
864
846
851
923
884
867
898
892
837
797
809
848
817
866
889
939
921
943
927
989
953
939
971
1,01
41,
041
6440
2226
139
42
33
65
74
80
00
00
00
00
2,61
42,
640
2,67
22,
688
2,68
82,
673
2,62
02,
534
2,47
42,
453
2,48
02,
556
2,55
02,
667
2,71
92,
849
2,80
62,
818
2,86
02,
868
2,85
22,
910
3,00
93,
011
2,99
252
2632
160
-15
-53
-86
-60
-21
2776
-611
752
130
-43
1242
8-1
658
992
-19
2.0%
1.0%
1.2%
0.6%
0.0%
-0.6
%-2
.0%
-3.3
%-2
.4%
-0.8
%1.
1%3.
1%-0
.2%
4.6%
1.9%
4.8%
-1.5
%0.
4%1.
5%0.
3%-0
.6%
2.0%
3.4%
0.1%
-0.6
%
869
918
872
868
925
899
892
919
905
877
821
835
904
875
931
954
977
945
992
980
1,04
01,
004
987
1,02
01,
063
790
875
888
872
865
933
899
906
911
912
868
846
850
896
886
941
941
973
976
998
988
1,04
81,
010
993
1,02
676
575
586
787
788
786
392
589
892
792
790
286
284
384
389
788
896
493
71,
007
988
1,01
31,
002
1,06
11,
024
1,00
775
677
276
586
485
589
086
091
788
291
491
887
987
983
084
591
088
894
692
51,
006
985
1,01
099
91,
058
1,02
279
7685
7986
7197
108
8465
8310
210
312
410
210
094
104
9686
8686
8686
863,
259
3,39
63,
477
3,56
03,
618
3,65
63,
673
3,74
83,
709
3,69
53,
592
3,52
43,
579
3,56
83,
661
3,79
33,
864
3,90
53,
996
4,05
84,
112
4,15
04,
143
4,18
14,
204
137
137
8183
5838
1775
-39
-14
-103
-68
55-1
193
132
7141
9162
5438
-738
234.
4%4.
2%2.
4%2.
4%1.
6%1.
1%0.
5%2.
0%-1
.0%
-0.4
%-2
.8%
-1.9
%1.
6%-0
.3%
2.6%
3.6%
1.9%
1.1%
2.3%
1.6%
1.3%
0.9%
-0.2
%0.
9%0.
6%
11,1
6611
,248
11,2
4611
,250
11,2
7611
,267
11,2
6811
,415
11,5
0111
,556
11,5
7011
,607
11,7
7511
,922
12,1
7012
,441
12,5
0312
,508
12,6
5712
,750
12,7
801
2,80
012
,825
12,8
4912
,823
222
82-2
426
-91
147
8655
1437
168
147
248
271
625
149
9330
2025
24-2
62.
0%0.
7%0.
0%0.
0%0.
2%-0
.1%
0.0%
1.3%
0.8%
0.5%
0.1%
0.3%
1.4%
1.2%
2.1%
2.2%
0.5%
0.0%
1.2%
0.7%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
-0.2
%
Pro
ject
ed
- 12 -
TABLE 5COMPARISON OF ACTUAL AND PROJECTED 5 YEAR ENROLLMENT CHANGE
2012-13 TO 2017-18 AND 2017-18 TO 2022-23
School2012-13
Enrollment2017-18
EnrollmentChange
% Change
2017-18 Enrollment
2022-23 Enrollment
Change%
Change
Angier 408 467 59 14.5% 467 470 3 0.6%Bowen 477 421 -56 -11.7% 421 372 -49 -11.6%Burr 415 386 -29 -7.0% 386 336 -50 -13.0%Cabot 420 391 -29 -6.9% 391 405 14 3.6%Countryside 479 410 -69 -14.4% 410 383 -27 -6.6%Franklin 396 434 38 9.6% 434 429 -5 -1.2%Horace Mann 394 404 10 2.5% 404 383 -21 -5.2%Lincoln-Eliot 322 374 52 16.1% 374 381 7 1.9%Mason-Rice 438 512 74 16.9% 512 418 -94 -18.4%Memorial-Spaulding 464 453 -11 -2.4% 453 463 10 2.2%Peirce 337 276 -61 -18.1% 276 259 -17 -6.2%Underwood 310 284 -26 -8.4% 284 267 -17 -6.0%Ward 301 309 8 2.7% 309 280 -29 -9.4%Williams 304 296 -8 -2.6% 296 295 -1 -0.3%Zervas 325 407 82 25.2% 407 486 79 19.4%TOTAL ELEMENTARY 5,790 5,824 34 0.6% 5,824 5,627 -197 -3.4%
Bigelow 531 521 -10 -1.9% 521 538 17 3.3%Brown 698 753 55 7.9% 753 843 90 12.0%Day 874 980 106 12.1% 980 948 -32 -3.3%Oak Hill 616 614 -2 -0.3% 614 663 49 8.0%TOTAL MIDDLE 2,719 2,868 149 5.5% 2,868 2,992 124 4.3%
Newton North 1,940 2,165 225 11.6% 2,165 2,235 70 3.2%Newton South 1,721 1,893 172 10.0% 1,893 1,969 76 4.0%TOTAL HIGH SCHOOL 3,661 4,058 397 10.8% 4,058 4,204 146 3.6%
TOTAL ENROLLMENT 12,170 12,750 580 4.8% 12,750 12,823 73 0.6%
- 13 -
Yea
rG
rade
s K
-5G
rade
s 6-
8G
rade
s 9-
12S
yste
m-W
ide
Tot
al%
Cha
nge
# C
hang
eT
otal
% C
hang
e#
Cha
nge
Tot
al%
Cha
nge
# C
hang
eT
otal
% C
hang
e#
Cha
nge
2011
-201
25,
687
0.8%
412,
667
2.8%
693,
568
-0.3
%-1
111
,922
0.8%
99
2012
-201
35,
790
1.8%
103
2,71
91.
9%52
3,66
12.
6%93
12,1
70
2.
1%24
8
2013
-201
45,
799
0.2%
92,
849
4.8%
130
3,79
33.
6%13
212
,441
2.2%
271
2014
-201
55,
833
0.6%
342,
806
-1.5
%-4
33,
864
1.9%
7112
,503
0.5%
62
2015
-201
65,
785
-0.8
%-4
82,
818
0.4%
123,
905
1.1%
4112
,508
0.0%
5
2016
-201
75,
801
0.3%
162,
860
1.5%
423,
996
2.3%
9112
,657
1.2%
149
2017
-201
85,
824
0.4%
232,
868
0.3%
84,
058
1.6%
6212
,750
0.7%
93
2018
-201
95,
816
-0.1
%-8
2,85
2-0
.6%
-16
4,11
21.
3%54
12,7
80
0.
2%30
2019
-202
05,
740
-1.3
%-7
62,
910
2.0%
584,
150
0.9%
3812
,800
0.2%
20
2020
-202
15,
673
-1.2
%-6
73,
009
3.4%
994,
143
-0.2
%-7
12,8
25
0.
2%25
2021
-202
25,
657
-0.3
%-1
63,
011
0.1%
24,
181
0.9%
3812
,849
0.2%
24
2022
-202
35,
627
-0.5
%-3
02,
992
-0.6
%-1
94,
204
0.6%
2312
,823
-0.2
%-2
6%
Cha
nge
2011
-201
2 to
20
22-2
023
-1.1
%12
.2%
17.8
%7.
6%
% C
hang
e 20
11-2
012
to
2017
-201
82.
4%7.
5%13
.7%
6.9%
% C
hang
e 20
17-2
018
to
2022
-202
3-3
.4%
4.3%
3.6%
0.6%
TA
BL
E 6
PE
RC
EN
T O
F C
HA
NG
E B
Y G
RA
DE
SP
AN
2011
-201
2 T
O 2
022-
2023
- 14 -
Difference from %Year Enrollment Previous Year Change1967 18,4241977 14,555 –687 –4.5%1978 13,819 –736 –5.1%1979 13,050 –769 –5.6%1980 12,426 –624 –4.8%1981 11,635 –791 –6.4%1982 10,898 –737 –6.3%1983 10,411 –487 –4.5%1984 10,054 –357 –3.4%1985 9,700 –354 –3.5%1986 9,435 –265 –2.7%1987 9,240 –195 –2.1%1988 9,142 –98 –1.1%1989 9,276 +134 +1.5%1990 9,488 +212 +2.3%1991 9,728 +240 +2.5%1992 10,010 +282 +2.9%1993 10,360 +350 +3.5%1994 10,571 +211 +2.0%1995 10,680 +109 +1.0%1996 10,850 +170 +1.6%1997 10,944 +94 +0.9%1998 11,166 +222 +2.0%1999 11,248 +82 +0.7%2000 11,246 –2 +0.0%2001 11,250 +4 +0.0%2002 11,276 +26 +0.2%2003 11,267 –9 -0.1%2004 11,268 +1 0.0%2005 11,415 +147 1.3%2006 11,501 +86 0.8%2007 11,556 +55 0.5%2008 11,570 +14 0.1%2009 11,607 +37 0.3%2010 11,775 +168 1.4%2011 11,922 +147 1.2%2012 12,170 +248 2.1%2013 12,441 +271 2.2%2014 12,503 +62 0.5%2015 12,508 +5 0.0%2016 12,657 +149 1.2%2017 12,750 +93 0.7%
PROJECTED2018 12,780 +30 +0.2%2019 12,800 +20 +0.2%2020 12,825 +25 +0.2%2021 12,849 +24 +0.2%2022 12,823 –26 –0.2%
Note: Peak enrollment year is in bold
TABLE 7 ACTUAL SYSTEM ENROLLMENT CHANGE 1977-2017
- - 15 -
Difference from %Year Enrollment Previous Year Change1961 10,0101981 5,359 –431 –7.4%1982 4,948 –411 –7.7%1983 4,749 –199 –4.0%1984 4,662 –87 –1.8%1985 4,662 +0 +0.0%1986 4,735 +73 +1.6%1987 4,851 +116 +2.4%1988 5,007 +156 +3.2%1989 5,297 +290 +5.8%1990 5,503 +206 +3.9%1991 5,647 +144 +2.6%1992 5,805 +158 +2.7%1993* 5,216 –589 –11.3%1994 5,363 +147 +2.7%1995 5,309 –54 –1.0%1996 5,318 +9 +0.2%1997 5,260 –58 –1.1%1998 5,293 +33 +0.6%1999 5,212 –81 –1.5%2000 5,097 –115 –2.2%2001 5,002 –95 –1.9%2002 4,970 –32 –0.6%2003 4,938 –32 –0.6%2004 4,975 +37 +0.7%2005 5,133 +158 +3.2%2006 5,318 +185 +3.6%2007 5,408 +90 +1.7%2008 5,498 +90 +1.7%2009 5,527 +29 +0.5%2010 5,646 +119 +2.2%2011 5,687 +41 +0.7%2012 5,790 +103 +1.8%2013 5,799 +9 +0.2%2014 5,833 +34 +0.6%2015 5,785 –48 –0.8%2016 5,801 +16 +0.3%2017 5,824 +23 +0.4%
PROJECTED2018 5,816 –8 –0.1%2019 5,740 –76 –1.3%2020 5,673 –67 –1.2%2021 5,657 –16 –0.3%2022 5,627 –30 –0.5%
Note: Peak enrollment year is in bold*Grade organization changed from K-6 to K-5 configuration
ACTUAL ELEMENTARY SCHOOL ENROLLMENT CHANGE 1981-2017
TABLE 8
- - 16 -
Difference from %
Year Enrollment Previous Year Change
1984 5,392 –270 –4.8%
1985 5,038 –354 –6.6%
1986 4,700 –338 –6.7%
1987 4,389 –311 –6.6%
1988 4,135 –254 –5.8%
1989 3,979 –156 –3.8%
1990 3,985 +6 +0.2%
1991 4,081 +96 +2.4%
1992 4,205 +124 +3.0%
1993* 5,144 +939 +22.3%
1994 5,208 +64 +1.2%
1995 5,371 +163 +3.1%
1996 5,532 +161 +3.0%
1997 5,684 +152 +2.7%
1998 5,873 +189 +3.3%
1999 6,036 +163 +2.8%
2000 6,149 +113 +1.9%
2001 6,248 +99 +1.6%
2002 6,306 +58 +0.9%
2003 6,329 +23 +0.4%
2004 6,293 –36 –0.6%
2005 6,282 –11 –0.2%
2006 6,183 –99 –1.6%
2007 6,148 –35 –0.6%
2008 6,072 –76 –1.2%
2009 6,080 +8 +0.1%
2010 6,129 +49 +0.8%
2011 6,235 +106 +1.7%
2012 6,380 +145 +2.3%
2013 6,642 +262 +4.1%
2014 6,670 +28 +0.4%
2015 6,723 +53 +0.8%
2016 6,856 +133 +2.0%
2017 6,926 +70 +1.0%
Projections
Grades Grades Total Difference from %
Year 6-8 9-12 Enrollment Previous Year Change
2018 2,852 4,112 6,964 +38 +0.5%
2019 2,910 4,150 7,060 +96 +1.4%
2020 3,009 4,143 7,152 +92 +1.3%
2021 3,011 4,181 7,192 +40 +0.6%
2022 2,992 4,204 7,196 +4 +0.1%
*Secondary school enrollments reflect a change in grade configuration from 7-8 to 6-8 at
the middle school level.
SECONDARY ENROLLMENT CHANGE 1984 THROUGH 2017 ACTUAL AND 2022 PROJECTED
TABLE 9
- - 17 -
II. ENROLLMENT PROJECTION METHOD
Kindergarten Projection Methodology
NESDEC Comparison
Accuracy of Projections
Frequently Asked Questions
II. ENROLLMENT PROJECTION METHOD
The enrollment projections are prepared by combining the current year’s official enrollment as reported on October 1, 2017 to the Department of Elementary and Secondary Education with other available demographic data for Newton. These data are then applied to a spreadsheet model of five-year average cohort survival ratios. The projections are calculated on an individual school and grade basis and then aggregated into system-wide projections. As in recent years, five-year cohort survival ratios for grades 1 through 12 are used in this projection. Straight four-year averages are used for kindergarten this year as explained later in this section.
A cohort is defined as a group of students of a specific age or grade level who are at a specific school or are all going to the same school in the next year. Non-resident students are not included in the base for the cohort calculation, but are added to the total after the calculation. Next year's 6th graders at Oak Hill Middle School, for example, are made up of the 5th grade cohorts from Bowen, Memorial-Spaulding and Zervas. The five-year average cohort survival ratio for students entering Oak Hill is 0.98. There are 198 resident students in the cohort described above. The cohort calculation therefore yields 194 (198 x 0.98) students in grade 6 at Oak Hill next year. Nine current non-resident students are added to this total, resulting in the final projection of 203 students entering the 6th grade at Oak Hill next year.
The following factors are integrated in the forecast:
School feeder patterns, split districts, district boundaries and buffer zones reflect currentSchool Committee policies. Student assignment policy changes for the Angier andZervas districts, and the effects on nearby school districts, were approved in September2015 and are fully integrated into the forecast.
METCO students are added to each school and grade after the projections are computed.METCO students who will enter the system in kindergarten, grade one or grade two eachyear for the next five years are also included in the individual school tables by grade.
The number of entering middle and high school students is based on percentages ofstudents from lower grade level schools to reflect districting, split districts, and bufferzones.
The number of potential students from residential properties is calculated when buildingpermits have been issued by the City of Newton.
It is important to note that anticipated student assignment policy changes for the Cabot, Horace Mann and Lincoln-Eliot districts are not included in the forecast. No presumption is made about the outcome of student assignment policies that are currently under review.
Kindergarten Projection Methodology
The following two charts provide historical data on kindergarten enrollment. The first chart shows the highest kindergarten populations of the past forty years. The 2017-18 kindergarten class of 850 is a third year of lower enrollments, a counterpoint to three recent years of record enrollment over 900 students of which the 2013-14 enrollment year was the peak. The second chart illustrates the rising trend over time of how Newton’s four-year old population (documented on the City census) relates to the kindergarten population. The ratio
- - 18 -
has been rising due to decreasing numbers of children age 4 on the census compared to the number of kindergarten students each year. The number of 4-year olds on the city census has been under 600 children since 2013, when previously, 600 to 700 children were typically recorded.
Next year’s kindergarten projection of 885 students is calculated using a straight four-year average of the previous kindergarten enrollments, a more conservative approach than the five-year average. The four-year average captures experience with kindergarten populations in the recent past and includes one year of record high kindergarten. In the past, the kindergarten projection method has incorporated city census data on children age 4. However, in recent years, this data has not been a good predictor of the number of kindergarten students and therefore is not included.
Resident births to kindergarten ratios are displayed in Table 10 below. Comparing each year’s kindergarten population to the number of state recorded Newton births five years prior yields a birth to kindergarten ratio. The 801 resident births in 2013 and the kindergarten class of 885 students projected next year in 2018-19 produce a ratio of 1.10 which is in line with recent experience. It is the current 2017-18 year that diverges from recent experience, with 812 resident births and a kindergarten class of 850 students with a resulting birth to kindergarten ratio of 1.05 which is relatively low compared with recent years.
Highest Kindergarten Populations of Past 40 YearsTime Period Number of K Students
1971-72 1,0631972-73 1,0101974-75 9981973-74 9681975-76 9462013-14 9582017-18 850
40 year average 80120 year average 854
10 year average 893
Year 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
4-year olds 828 796 767 770 723 744 683 686 705 708 682 615 554 567 473 509K population 792 796 805 867 887 868 830 862 896 895 934 958 938 877 885 850
Ratio 0.96 1.00 1.05 1.13 1.23 1.17 1.22 1.26 1.27 1.26 1.37 1.56 1.69 1.55 1.87 1.67
Age Four to Kindergarten Ratio
- - 19 -
NESDEC Comparison
The enrollment analysis report includes projections for the Newton Public Schools from NESDEC (the New England School Development Council). In total by all grade levels, NESDEC’s enrollment projections for 2018-19 are close to Newton’s projections. NESDEC is projecting higher than Newton for next year, with a small difference of 20 students. This difference is largely accounted for by a higher elementary projection from NESDEC. NESDEC’s kindergarten projection of 890 students for next year is on par with Newton’s projection. NESDEC uses a five-year average of Newton resident birth data to project kindergarten enrollment five years later; to project kindergarten enrollment in the last two years of the projection, NESDEC uses estimated numbers of births. Please see Table 11 of Appendix D.
There is a greater divergence between Newton and NESDEC’s projections in the two final years of the projection. The total variances for 2021-12 and 2022-23 are 105 and 132 students, respectively, with Newton being lower. Newton is projecting fewer kindergarten students than NESDEC in four of the next five years.
There are two additional differences between NESDEC’s projection methodology and Newton’s. First, NESDEC’s projections are calculated by total grade rather than by school and by grade. Second, NESDEC uses different cohort survival ratios for all grades influenced by their regional experience of school districts whereas Newton uses a five-year ratio for grades K through 12. Also in contrast to NESDEC, Newton has made an adjustment to projections to account for residential development in the city (the addition of students anticipated from the Kessler Woods, Court Street, and Austin Street developments).
Accuracy of Projections
Several tables are included to show how accurately Newton Public Schools projections match actual enrollment. Table 11 shows the projections for the current year (2017-18) by grade level compared to predictions one, two and three years ago.
Birth Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013**# of Births 759 844 788 812 815 907 806 787 787 812 801Kindergarten Year 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018Kindergarten 830 862 896 895 934 958 938 877 885 850 885Ratio 1.09 1.02 1.14 1.10 1.15 1.06 1.16 1.11 1.12 1.05 1.10*Source is the Massachusetts Department of Public Health, Vital Statistics (obtained through NESDEC).** Kindergarten class is projected.
Births to Kindergarten RatiosResident Births* to Kindergarten Ratios
TABLE 10
- - 20 -
Overall, the October 1, 2017 actual enrollment of 12,750 students is 37 students lower than projected in the November 2016 Enrollment Analysis Report, a -0.3% variance from projection. For comparison, variances from projection also were negative in two of the last three years: specifically, 0.6%, in 2016-17, -1.4% in 2015-16, and -0.7% in 2014-15. In the past 16 years, Newton has had seven negative variances when actual enrollment has been lower than projected enrollment. More commonly in this time period, the actual enrollment has been higher than the projection. This year, all three grade levels are enrolled at lower than anticipated levels with -21, -4 and -12 fewer students at the elementary, middle and high school grade levels respectively.
Table 12 provides a one-page summary of last year’s projections by school. Of the ten elementary schools that had enrollments lower than projected, Underwood, Countryside and Franklin had the largest variances of -10.1% (32 fewer students), -5.1% (22 fewer students), and -4.6% (21 fewer students) respectively. Zervas and Lincoln-Eliot were among the schools with more students enrolled than projected; these schools enrolled 36 and 27 more students, or 9.7% and 7.8%, respectively. Bigelow was the only middle school that varied from projection by more than 2%, with a variance of -2.8% (15 fewer students). Newton South enrolled 14 fewer students than projected, or a -0.7% variance. Newton North was within 2 students of projection.
Table 13 provides school and grade detail comparing the 2017-18 enrollment to the projections made last year. This table illustrates that kindergarten and grade 1 had the highest variances from projection at the elementary grade level. Of all the secondary grades, grade 7 had the biggest variance from projection of -2.1% (20 fewer students). Overall, secondary grades were enrolled at levels very close to projection.
TABLE 11Projection History for 2017-18 (FY18)
Date Projected Elementary Middle High School TotalFall 2014 5,905 2,847 4,042 12,794Fall 2015 5,787 2,838 3,955 12,580Fall 2016 5,845 2,872 4,070 12,787Actual October 2017 5,824 2,868 4,058 12,750
- 21 -
SC
HO
OL
S
OC
TO
BE
R
2016
A
CT
UA
LK
12
34
5
Spe
cial
E
duca
tion
**
OC
TO
BE
R
2017
A
CT
UA
L
DIF
F.
2017
-20
16%
DIF
F.
2017
P
roje
cted
*
DIF
F.
AC
TU
AL/
PR
OJ.
% D
IFF
.A
ngie
r42
165
9278
8676
7046
746
10.9
%44
423
5.2%
Bow
en41
764
6961
5698
7342
14
1.0%
409
122.
9%B
urr
402
6051
6970
7660
386
-16
-4.0
%39
5-9
-2.3
%C
abot
400
5757
6468
6580
391
-9-2
.3%
394
-3-0
.8%
Cou
ntry
side
436
5665
6977
7370
410
-26
-6.0
%43
2-2
2-5
.1%
Fra
nklin
446
6285
6385
7465
434
-12
-2.7
%45
5-2
1-4
.6%
Hor
ace
Man
n41
760
6768
6474
7140
4-1
3-3
.1%
399
51.
3%Li
ncol
n-E
liot
346
6767
5957
6559
374
288.
1%34
727
7.8%
Mas
on-R
ice
507
6867
8910
396
8951
25
1.0%
516
-4-0
.8%
Mem
oria
l-Spa
uldi
ng45
475
7479
8672
6745
3-1
-0.2
%47
2-1
9-4
.0%
Pei
rce
299
4144
4361
3849
276
-23
-7.7
%28
5-9
-3.2
%U
nder
woo
d31
335
4740
6147
5428
4-2
9-9
.3%
316
-32
-10.
1%W
ard
313
3552
4957
5660
309
-4-1
.3%
311
-2-0
.6%
Will
iam
s29
347
4565
4045
5429
63
1.0%
299
-3-1
.0%
Zer
vas
337
5884
6470
6566
407
7020
.8%
371
369.
7%S
UB
-TO
TA
L5,
801
850
966
960
1041
1020
987
05,
824
230.
4%5,
845
-21
-0.4
%S
CH
OO
LS
67
8B
igel
ow52
516
317
118
752
1-4
-0.8
%53
6-1
5-2
.8%
Bro
wn
774
230
240
283
753
-21
-2.7
%74
49
1.2%
Day
922
351
304
325
980
586.
3%98
5-5
-0.5
%O
ak H
ill63
918
723
319
461
4-2
5-3
.9%
607
71.
2%S
UB
-TO
TA
L2,
860
931
948
989
02,
868
80.
3%2,
872
-4-0
.1%
SC
HO
OL
S9
1011
12S
P**
New
ton
Nor
th2,
145
501
511
539
543
712,
165
200.
9%2,
163
20.
1%N
ewto
n S
outh
1,85
147
948
744
946
315
1,89
342
2.3%
1,90
7-1
4-0
.7%
SU
B-T
OT
AL
3,99
698
099
898
810
0686
4,05
862
1.6%
4,07
0-1
2-0
.3%
GR
AN
D T
OT
AL
12,6
5786
12,7
5093
0.7%
12,7
87-3
7-0
.3%
*ME
TC
O s
tude
nts
are
incl
uded
in a
ll sc
hool
s' p
roje
cted
enr
ollm
ents
.
**N
orth
incl
udes
84
stud
ents
rec
eivi
ng s
peci
al e
duca
tion
serv
ices
out
side
of t
he c
lass
room
for
a si
gnifi
cant
am
ount
of t
ime.
Sou
th in
clud
es 1
2 st
uden
ts r
ecei
ving
spe
cial
edu
catio
n se
rvic
es o
utsi
de o
f the
cla
ssro
om fo
r a
sign
ifica
nt a
mou
nt o
f tim
e. (
Spe
cial
edu
catio
n st
uden
ts r
ecei
ving
ser
vice
s ou
tsid
e th
e cl
assr
oom
for
a si
gnifi
cant
am
ount
of t
ime
in g
rade
s K
-8 a
re r
epor
ted
with
thei
r gr
ade.
)
Oct
ob
er 2
017
Act
ual
By
Gra
de
TA
BL
E 1
2C
OM
PA
RIS
ON
OF
OC
TO
BE
R, 2
016
AN
D O
CT
OB
ER
, 201
7 E
NR
OL
LM
EN
TS
AN
DC
OM
PA
RIS
ON
OF
PR
OJE
CT
ED
WIT
H A
CT
UA
L O
CT
OB
ER
, 201
7 E
NR
OL
LM
EN
T
- 22 -
Actual 17/18
Proj. 17/18
Actual 17/18
Proj. 17/18
Actual 17/18
Proj. 17/18
Actual 17/18
Proj. 17/18
Actual 17/18
Proj. 17/18
K 65 72 64 62 60 59 57 54 56 641 92 83 69 64 51 50 57 57 65 662 78 67 61 61 69 69 64 59 69 773 86 81 56 59 70 74 68 79 77 844 76 72 98 93 76 80 65 68 73 675 70 69 73 70 60 63 80 77 70 74
Total 467 444 421 409 386 395 391 394 410 432
Actual 17/18
Proj. 17/18
Actual 17/18
Proj. 17/18
Actual 17/18
Proj. 17/18
Actual 17/18
Proj. 17/18
Actual 17/18
Proj. 17/18
K 62 75 60 61 67 59 68 70 75 741 85 80 67 66 67 60 67 72 74 782 63 67 68 66 59 56 89 91 79 863 85 92 64 64 57 54 103 99 86 844 74 75 74 72 65 64 96 95 72 775 65 66 71 70 59 54 89 89 67 73
Total 434 455 404 399 374 347 512 516 453 472
Actual 17/18
Proj. 17/18
Actual 17/18
Proj. 17/18
Actual 17/18
Proj. 17/18
Actual 17/18
Proj. 17/18
Actual 17/18
Proj. 17/18
K 41 43 35 47 35 43 47 45 58 741 44 41 47 50 52 54 45 45 84 692 43 42 40 44 49 46 65 67 64 573 61 63 61 69 57 56 40 44 70 584 38 45 47 50 56 56 45 43 65 565 49 51 54 56 60 56 54 55 66 57
Total 276 285 284 316 309 311 296 299 407 371
GradeActual 17/18
Proj. 17/18
K 850 902 -52 -5.8%1 966 935 31 3.3%2 960 955 5 0.5%3 1041 1060 -19 -1.8%4 1020 1013 7 0.7%5 987 980 7 0.7%
Total 5,824 5,845 -21 -0.4%
M-Spaulding
Zervas
Mason-RiceFranklin
Peirce Williams
Grade
% Diff.
Grade
TOTAL ELEM.
Lincoln-Eliot
Underwood Ward
Horace Mann
N Diff
Bowen Burr Cabot
TABLE 13ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ELEMENTARY ENROLLMENTS BY SCHOOL 2017-18
Countryside
Grade
Angier
- 23 -
Actual 17/18
Proj. 17/18
Actual 17/18
Proj. 17/18
Actual 17/18
Proj. 17/18
Actual 17/18
Proj. 17/18
6 163 171 230 219 351 351 187 1847 171 180 240 241 304 313 233 2348 187 185 283 284 325 321 194 189
Total 521 536 753 744 980 985 614 607
Actual 17/18
Proj. 17/18
931 925 6 0.6%948 968 -20 -2.1%989 979 10 1.0%
2,868 2,872 -4 -0.1%
Actual 17/18
Proj. 17/18
Actual 17/18
Proj. 17/18
Actual 17/18
Proj. 17/18
9 501 479 479 500 980 979 1 0.1%10 511 519 487 483 998 1,002 -4 -0.4%11 539 531 449 457 988 988 0 0.0%12 543 550 463 455 1,006 1,005 1 0.1%
Sp. Ed. 71 84 15 12 86 96 -10 -10.4%Total 2,165 2,163 1,893 1,907 4,058 4,070 -12 -0.3%
5,824 5,845 -21 -0.4%2,868 2,872 -4 -0.1%4,058 4,070 -12 -0.3%12,750 12,787 -37 -0.3%
TABLE 13 (CONT.)ACTUAL AND PROJECTED SECONDARY ENROLLMENTS BY SCHOOL 2017-18
%Diff.Division
Actual 17/18
Proj. 17/18
N Diff.
N Diff.Grade
Bigelow
Grade
Brown
Grade
TOTAL MIDDLEN
Diff.%
Diff.
Total
Day
ElementaryMiddleHigh
Oak Hill
6
% Diff.
TOTAL HIGH
8Total
SouthNorth
7
- 24 -
Act
ual
Pro
j.A
ctua
l P
roj.
Act
ual
Pro
j.A
ctua
l P
roj.
Act
ual
Pro
j.A
ctua
l P
roj.
Pro
j.P
roj.
Pro
j.P
roj.
Pro
j.G
rade
12/1
312
/13
13/1
413
/14
14/1
514
/15
15/1
615
/16
16/1
716
/17
17/1
817
/18
18/1
919
/20
20/2
121
/22
22/2
3K
934
903
958
962
938
892
877
922
885
895
850
902
885
875
886
880
883
193
694
597
798
499
910
0710
0597
994
392
796
693
590
193
594
294
493
92
966
974
945
965
979
1008
992
1020
1042
1016
960
955
978
908
945
949
955
398
197
098
299
494
696
697
799
710
0510
0810
4110
6097
198
991
795
395
74
938
930
993
1000
980
994
949
955
976
988
1020
1013
1050
976
998
923
960
510
2110
1694
494
699
199
398
598
695
095
398
798
010
3110
5798
510
0893
3S
p.E
d.14
190
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Tot
al5,
790
5,75
75,
799
5,85
15,
833
5,86
05,
785
5,85
95,
801
5,78
75,
824
5,84
55,
816
5,74
05,
673
5,65
75,
627
690
090
997
899
792
291
196
395
996
195
493
192
596
410
0510
3096
298
87
922
925
932
907
963
986
912
926
972
970
948
968
935
966
1008
1035
963
888
987
293
992
892
194
194
396
792
791
498
997
995
393
997
110
1410
41S
p.E
d.8
40
00
00
00
00
00
00
00
Tot
al2,
719
2,71
02,
849
2,83
22,
806
2,83
82,
818
2,85
22,
860
2,83
82,
868
2,87
22,
852
2,91
03,
009
3,01
12,
992
993
191
095
493
897
799
994
598
399
299
698
097
910
4010
0498
710
2010
6310
886
883
941
940
941
967
973
982
976
945
998
1002
988
1048
1010
993
1026
1189
789
588
888
496
493
993
794
510
0797
698
898
810
1310
0210
6110
2410
0712
845
835
910
893
888
886
946
968
925
934
1006
1005
985
1010
999
1058
1022
Sp.
Ed.
102
124
100
102
9410
010
494
9610
486
9686
8686
8686
Tot
al3,
661
3,64
73,
793
3,75
73,
864
3,89
13,
905
3,97
23,
996
3,95
54,
058
4,07
04,
112
4,15
04,
143
4,18
14,
204
K-1
2T
OT
AL
12,1
7012
,114
12,4
4112
,440
12,5
0312
,589
12,5
0812
,683
12,6
5712
,580
12,7
5012
,787
12,7
8012
,800
12,8
2512
,849
12,8
23%
Cha
nge
0.5%
0.0%
-0.7
%-1
.4%
0.6%
-0.3
%N
/AN
/AN
/AN
/AN
/A
TA
BL
E 1
4A
CT
UA
L A
ND
PR
OJE
CT
ED
K-1
2 E
NR
OL
LM
EN
TS
201
2-13
TO
202
2-23
- 25 -
Frequently Asked Questions
1. Why do we need to know how many students may be attending each school in Newton in future years?
Enrollment projections are useful for decision-making and planning, especially in light of continuing significant enrollment growth. With growing shortages of space at the elementary and middle schools, and with increased demand on local financial resources, accurate projections have become increasingly important. Carefully crafted, presented and interpreted projections are a key first step in the planning process. The district is then able to plan the budgets, including capital improvements, classroom space requirements, sufficient teacher workforce and staffing, instructional materials, transportation and so forth. Accurate projections alert the district to changes in school population to allow for needed adjustments. In addition to the projections, school principals provide critical data on enrollments and registrations each spring.
2. Why can’t the principals count the students who are in their school and add the students who are coming next year?
This technique may work very well in small, stable communities for a single year's projection. However, larger communities like Newton, with a need for long-term planning, require more complex approaches in order to forecast enrollment trends some years into the future. Research done on Newton’s high school enrollment showed that a significant number of students enter and exit the system during the school year and during each summer. Reliance on class lists would provide a less accurate picture than the use of a statistical model that accounts for movements in and out of each school and the system as a whole. It is worth noting that Newton’s elementary school principals submit expected numbers of pupils in May and June so that planning for classrooms and teaching staff can proceed with the most recent information.
3. How complex are projection methods?
Enrollment projection procedures are somewhat complex, but, like most statistical methods, they can be explained and replicated. The following example using typical student numbers is provided: the 6th graders at Oak Hill Middle School are made up of the 5th grade cohorts from Bowen, Memorial-Spaulding, and Zervas. In this example, the five-year average cohort survival ratio for schools entering Oak Hill is 0.97 and there are 232 resident students in the group described above. The cohort calculation therefore yields 225 (232 x 0.97) students. Eight current non-resident students would be added to this total, resulting in the final projection of 233 students for students entering the 6th grade at Oak Hill. These forecasts help communities to better understand the impact of trends and changes in enrollment, migration and births on school population. All projections are based on underlying assumptions that use historical school enrollment and census data.
4. What procedures are used in other school systems across the United States?
Most school systems use the “Cohort Survival” method, or some variation, as the technique to provide enrollment forecasts. The basic unit used in this technique is the ratio, a measure that expresses the relative size of two numbers. The cohort survival ratio
- 26 -
method models and calculates the flow of a cohort or age group of pupils through the system from one grade to the next over a number of years.
The ratios are influenced by several variables--census data, birth rates, student entrances, exits and transfers, non-public school enrollment patterns, frequency of promotions or retentions, drop-out rates, the proportion of the city school-age population, housing patterns, the number of building permits issued, and other urban trends. Because these variables change from year to year and from school to school, an average ratio of three to five years is used to project for the future. The more stable the community or the individual school neighborhood, the easier and more reliable the projections.
The advantages of this type of model are: (1) it captures the multiple forces which affect population changes (move-ins, move-outs, transfers between schools); and (2) it distinguishes changes in each age group rather than looking at a composite of all changes.
A limited number of school systems have prepared enrollment forecasts using other procedures. For example, regression analysis utilizing the same predictors - births and past tendencies of school children to advance from one grade to the next - can be employed. Other methods include: Growth technique (establishes a district level enrollment curve based on ratios, migration, retention, drop-outs, private school enrollment, etc.); historical comparison of dwellings to enrollment used to base projections; method of analogy (analysis of national trends or local growth influence on district enrollment); and the multiple factor method (study of social and economic factors’ influence on enrollment).
5. What procedure historically has been utilized in Newton?
The cohort survival ratio method for system-wide projections with adjustments, if appropriate, at the school level has been used for many years. In the past, a combination of three-year, four-year, and five-year average ratios has been used, with the greatest variation in the kindergarten projection method. The method consistently has relied upon five-year ratios for grades 1 through 12 in order to provide a consistent timeframe for the model across all schools and to take advantage of a full five years of experience. The method used to project kindergarten has relied upon a combination of approaches in order to arrive at the most reasonable projection, given high variability in class size. In the past for kindergarten projections, Newton has used city census data for the number of children aged 3 or 4 years as compared to the kindergarten population two years hence, but this has not been possible in recent years.
6. How accurate are projections?
The quality of the data obviously influences the accuracy of the projections. Cohort survival relies on data that is usually readily available and reasonably reliable - census data on births and past enrollments.
"Goodness of fit," a measure of the percentage of error, is determined by dividing the difference between the actual and projected enrollment for each level by the projected enrollment figure. The errors are the magnitude of the percentage difference between projected and actual enrollments. A small percentage of error is preferred. Research literature indicates that total school district enrollment may be projected with an accuracy of
- 27 -
plus or minus 1%, yet an individual school's error rate might exceed 10%. Past system-wide error rates in Newton have been low, at around +/-1%, while grade level and school based projections have been higher. Tables 12, 13 and 14 show the accuracy of projections at the system level and also school by school and grade by grade.
In summary, short-term projections are generally more accurate than long-term projections. Projections for districts with larger enrollments are more accurate than those for smaller dis-tricts. System-wide projections are more accurate than individual school projections. Error is especially important to consider when reviewing the data beyond five years in the future. These projections, at best, provide only the direction or trend enrollments will take into the 2020’s. This is because beyond the fourth year of the projection, elementary enrollments must be based on predicted births in a calendar year that is not yet complete, and for which data has not yet been 100% collected. Secondary level enrollments can be projected beyond that point with a greater assurance of reliability.
- 28 -
III. ENROLLMENT HISTORY
Grade-by-Grade Analysis
A Comparison to Peak Enrollment Years
III. ENROLLMENT HISTORY
This section of the report looks at historical enrollment patterns in two ways. The first is on a grade-by-grade basis, tracking the in- and out-migration of students as each kindergarten class moves through the system. The second provides a look at current enrollment as compared with peak enrollment years.
Grade-by-Grade Analysis
Table 15 shows the changes in size of each grade from 2016-17 to 2017-18. Most migrations were positive, the largest of which was 81 students from kindergarten to grade 1. The net in-migration from grade 8 to grade 9 was also significant, with cohort growth of 53 students. There were negative migrations in middle school, namely grade 5 to grade 6 (-19 students) and grade 6 to grade 7 (-13 students).
Table 16 shows Newton's historical cohort survival ratios by grade from 1991-92 through 2017-18. This table shows the net in- and out-migration patterns for each grade level. Ratios greater than one indicate growth and ratios less than one indicate a decrease in the trend. Over the years, each cohort moving from K-1 has a survival ratio greater than one, indicating net in-migration. In the past three years, the ratio from grade K-1 has been high, at 1.07, 1.08, and 1.09, underscoring Newton’s consistent experience of cohort growth in early elementary grades. The cohort from 1-2, with a ratio of 1.02 this year, is also reflective of relatively strong cohort growth. Other elementary school ratios (cohort grade 2-3, 3-4, and 4-5) have ratios between 1.00 and 1.01, indicating net enrollment stability. An average of the ratios in all elementary grades is 1.03 this year; during the course of the enrollment growth trend that began in 2004, the average for all elementary grades was 1.02.
This year’s ratio of 0.98 from grade 5-6 is typical; in past years and in this year, the transition from elementary school to middle school has been marked by net out-migration between grades 5 to 6, as some students leave to enroll in private schools. Conversely, the transition from grade 8 to high school has historically shown a net in-migration as students enter the public school during this transition year. This year’s ratio from grade 8 to grade 9 is 1.06, similar to last year’s ratio of 1.05, and is close to the peak during the years between 2010 and 2013, where the grade 8 to 9 ratio was 1.07 or 1.08.
A Comparison to Peak Enrollment Years
Current South High School enrollment of 1,893 students is at an historic peak. Total 2017-18 enrollment of 12,750 is 69% of the 1967 peak enrollment of 18,424. At the beginning of the current growth trend in 2004, the district’s enrollment of 11,268 students was 61% of the 1967 peak year.
Peak Enrollment Year Number of K -12 Schools K-12 18,424 1967 23 Elementary, 5 Jr. Highs, 2 Sr. Highs K-6 9,887 1960 25 Elementary, 5 Jr. Highs, 2 Sr. Highs, 1 Technical
High School North High 2,976 1972 23 Elementary, 5 Jr. Highs, 2 Sr. Highs South High 1,893 2017 15 Elementary, 4 Middle Schools, 2 High Schools
- 29 -
TABLE 15ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
2016 and 2017
October 1 EnrollmentChanges in Enrollment 2016-2017 to 2017-2018
Grade 2016Net
Migration 2017 N %
K 885 850 -35 -4.0%+81
1 943 966 +23 +2.4%+17
2 1,042 960 -82 -7.9%-1
3 1,005 1,041 +36 +3.6%+15
4 976 1,020 +44 +4.5%+11
5 950 987 +37 +3.9%-19
TOTAL ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS 5,801 5,824 +23 +0.4%
6 961 931 -30 -3.1%-13
7 972 948 -24 -2.5%+17
8 927 989 +62 +6.7%+53
9 992 980 -12 -1.2%+6
10 976 998 +22 +2.3%+12
11 1,007 988 -19 -1.9%-1
12 925 1,006 +81 +8.8%
Special Education/Ungraded* 96 86 -10 -10.4%
TOTAL SECONDARY SCHOOLS 6,856 6,926 +70 +1.0%GRAND TOTAL 12,657 12,750 +93 +0.7%
* Includes students who receive special education services outside the regular classroom for a significant amount of time (students in K-8 are reported with their grades).* Includes students who receive special education services beyond grade twelve.
- 30 -
Sch
oo
l Y
ear
K-1
1-2
2-3
3-4
4-5
5-6
6-7
7-8
8-9
9-10
10-1
111
-12
91-9
21.
04
1.
00
1.
00
0.
99
0.
99
1.
01
0.
97
1.
02
1.
05
1.
04
1.
00
1.
00
92
-93
1.05
1.00
1.01
1.00
0.99
1.00
0.96
1.02
1.02
1.04
0.99
1.02
93-9
41.
05
1.
02
1.
03
0.
99
0.
97
0.
99
0.
96
1.
02
1.
04
1.
03
1.
03
0.
99
94
-95
1.04
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.99
1.01
1.01
1.02
1.06
0.96
0.93
0.95
95-9
61.
03
0.
97
0.
97
0.
99
0.
98
0.
98
0.
97
1.
00
1.
02
0.
99
1.
00
1.
02
96
-97
1.04
0.98
1.01
0.99
0.98
0.98
1.00
1.02
0.99
0.99
0.99
0.98
97-9
81.
02
1.
00
0.
99
1.
00
0.
99
0.
98
1.
00
1.
01
1.
05
1.
00
0.
99
0.
99
98
-99
1.05
1.01
1.00
1.00
1.02
0.97
1.00
1.03
1.05
1.02
1.02
1.01
99-0
01.
03
1.
02
1.
00
1.
01
1.
01
0.
97
1.
00
1.
01
1.
06
1.
01
0.
96
1.
01
00
-01
1.02
0.99
1.03
1.00
1.01
0.98
1.02
1.01
1.03
0.97
0.99
1.01
01-0
21.
02
1.
01
0.
99
1.
01
1.
02
0.
96
1.
01
0.
99
1.
02
1.
00
0.
99
1.
00
02
-03
1.05
1.06
1.00
1.01
1.00
1.00
1.02
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.02
0.97
03-0
41.
06
1.
03
1.
03
1.
00
0.
97
1.
00
0.
98
0.
99
1.
02
1.
01
1.
00
1.
00
04
-05
1.08
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.99
1.00
0.99
1.00
1.03
1.00
0.99
1.00
05-0
61.
06
1.
01
1.
03
1.
02
1.
00
0.
99
1.
01
1.
00
1.
02
1.
02
1.
00
0.
99
06
-07
1.06
1.05
1.03
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.01
1.00
1.01
0.99
1.02
0.98
07-0
81.
04
1.
04
1.
00
1.
00
1.
00
0.
97
1.
00
0.
98
1.
05
1.
01
1.
02
0.
99
08
-09
1.09
1.00
1.01
1.02
1.01
0.97
1.01
0.98
1.03
0.99
0.99
0.99
09-1
01.
06
1.
04
1.
01
1.
01
0.
97
0.
97
1.
00
1.
01
1.
03
1.
03
0.
99
0.
97
10
-11
1.07
1.04
1.02
1.00
0.99
0.98
0.98
0.99
1.07
1.02
1.00
1.02
11-1
21.
05
1.
03
1.
02
1.
01
1.
01
0.
96
1.
01
1.
00
1.
07
0.
99
0.
99
0.
98
12
-13
1.05
1.03
1.03
1.02
1.00
0.96
1.00
1.02
1.08
1.01
1.00
1.00
13-1
41.
05
1.
01
1.
02
1.
01
1.
01
0.
96
1.
04
1.
02
1.
07
1.
01
1.
00
1.
01
14
-15
1.04
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.98
0.98
0.99
1.04
0.99
1.02
1.00
15-1
61.
07
0.
99
1.
00
1.
00
1.
01
0.
97
0.
99
0.
98
1.
03
1.
00
1.
00
0.
98
16
-17
1.08
1.04
1.01
1.00
1.00
0.98
1.01
1.02
1.05
1.03
1.03
0.99
TA
BL
E 1
6H
IST
OR
ICA
L C
OH
OR
T S
UR
VIV
AL
RA
TIO
S B
Y G
RA
DE
- 31 -
TABLE 17 PERCENT OF CHANGE BY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
2011-2012 TO 2022-2023
Year ANGIER SCHOOL BOWEN SCHOOLTotal % Change # Change Total % Change # Change
2011-2012 395 5.3% 20 448 -0.2% -12012-2013 408 3.3% 13 477 6.5% 292013-2014 417 2.2% 9 502 5.2% 252014-2015 402 -3.6% -15 475 -5.4% -272015-2016 409 1.7% 7 449 -5.5% -262016-2017 421 2.9% 12 417 -7.1% -322017-2018 467 10.9% 46 421 1.0% 42018-2019 480 2.8% 13 410 -2.6% -112019-2020 490 2.1% 10 369 -10.0% -412020-2021 489 -0.2% -1 374 1.4% 52021-2022 488 -0.2% -1 376 0.5% 22022-2023 470 -3.7% -18 372 -1.1% -4% Change
2011-2012 to 2022-2023
19.0% -17.0%
% Change 2011-2012 to
2017-201818.2% -6.0%
Year BURR SCHOOL CABOT SCHOOLTotal % Change # Change Total % Change # Change
2011-2012 409 4.6% 18 440 -2.7% -122012-2013 415 1.5% 6 420 -4.5% -202013-2014 424 2.2% 9 419 -0.2% -12014-2015 424 0.0% 0 418 -0.2% -12015-2016 412 -2.8% -12 403 -3.6% -152016-2017 402 -2.4% -10 400 -0.7% -32017-2018 386 -4.0% -16 391 -2.3% -92018-2019 382 -1.0% -4 381 -2.6% -102019-2020 359 -6.0% -23 381 0.0% 02020-2021 343 -4.5% -16 392 2.9% 112021-2022 330 -3.8% -13 397 1.3% 52022-2023 336 1.8% 6 405 2.0% 8% Change
2011-2012 to 2022-2023
-17.8% -8.0%
% Change 2011-2012 to
2017-2018-5.6% -11.1%
- 32 -
TABLE 17 PERCENT OF CHANGE BY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
2011-2012 TO 2022-2023
Year COUNTRYSIDE SCHOOL FRANKLIN SCHOOLTotal % Change # Change Total % Change # Change
2011-2012 490 -1.8% -9 401 1.0% 42012-2013 479 -2.2% -11 396 -1.2% -52013-2014 457 -4.6% -22 389 -1.8% -72014-2015 466 2.0% 9 413 6.2% 242015-2016 450 -3.4% -16 424 2.7% 112016-2017 436 -3.1% -14 446 5.2% 222017-2018 410 -6.0% -26 434 -2.7% -122018-2019 411 0.2% 1 443 2.1% 92019-2020 405 -1.5% -6 439 -0.9% -42020-2021 394 -2.7% -11 430 -2.1% -92021-2022 384 -2.5% -10 439 2.1% 92022-2023 383 -0.3% -1 429 -2.3% -10% Change
2011-2012 to 2022-2023
-21.8% 7.0%
% Change 2011-2012 to
2017-2018-16.3% 8.2%
Year HORACE MANN SCHOOL LINCOLN-ELIOT SCHOOLTotal % Change # Change Total % Change # Change
2011-2012 386 3.5% 13 317 8.2% 242012-2013 394 2.1% 8 322 1.6% 52013-2014 427 8.4% 33 329 2.2% 72014-2015 434 1.6% 7 337 2.4% 82015-2016 412 -5.1% -22 340 0.9% 32016-2017 417 1.2% 5 346 1.8% 62017-2018 404 -3.1% -13 374 8.1% 282018-2019 401 -0.7% -3 380 1.6% 62019-2020 392 -2.2% -9 374 -1.6% -62020-2021 395 0.8% 3 381 1.9% 72021-2022 387 -2.0% -8 385 1.0% 42022-2023 383 -1.0% -4 381 -1.0% -4% Change
2011-2012 to 2022-2023
-0.8% 20.2%
% Change 2011-2012 to
2017-20184.7% 18.0%
- 33 -
TABLE 17 PERCENT OF CHANGE BY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
2011-2012 TO 2022-2023
Year MASON-RICE SCHOOL MEMORIAL-SPAULDING SCHOOLTotal % Change # Change Total % Change # Change
2011-2012 437 -1.1% -5 458 -0.2% -12012-2013 438 0.2% 1 464 1.3% 62013-2014 457 4.3% 19 429 -7.5% -352014-2015 478 4.6% 21 434 1.2% 52015-2016 492 2.9% 14 452 4.1% 182016-2017 507 3.0% 15 454 0.4% 22017-2018 512 1.0% 5 453 -0.2% -12018-2019 497 -2.9% -15 466 2.9% 132019-2020 472 -5.0% -25 471 1.1% 52020-2021 437 -7.4% -35 461 -2.1% -102021-2022 417 -4.6% -20 459 -0.4% -22022-2023 418 0.2% 1 463 0.9% 4% Change
2011-2012 to 2022-2023
-4.3% 1.1%
% Change 2011-2012 to
2017-201817.2% -1.1%
Year PEIRCE SCHOOL UNDERWOOD SCHOOLTotal % Change # Change Total % Change # Change
2011-2012 316 -0.6% -2 289 2.5% 72012-2013 337 6.6% 21 310 7.3% 212013-2014 312 -7.4% -25 327 5.5% 172014-2015 306 -1.9% -6 341 4.3% 142015-2016 314 2.6% 8 326 -4.4% -152016-2017 299 -4.8% -15 313 -4.0% -132017-2018 276 -7.7% -23 284 -9.3% -292018-2019 269 -2.5% -7 280 -1.4% -42019-2020 272 1.1% 3 278 -0.7% -22020-2021 256 -5.9% -16 263 -5.4% -152021-2022 258 0.8% 2 267 1.5% 42022-2023 259 0.4% 1 267 0.0% 0% Change
2011-2012 to 2022-2023
-18.0% -7.6%
% Change 2011-2012 to
2017-2018-12.7% -1.7%
- 34 -
TABLE 17 PERCENT OF CHANGE BY ELEMENTARY SCHOOL
2011-2012 TO 2022-2023
Year WARD SCHOOL WILLIAMS SCHOOLTotal % Change # Change Total % Change # Change
2011-2012 278 3.3% 9 302 1.3% 42012-2013 301 8.3% 23 304 0.7% 22013-2014 289 -4.0% -12 304 0.0% 02014-2015 304 5.2% 15 292 -3.9% -122015-2016 304 0.0% 0 290 -0.7% -22016-2017 313 3.0% 9 293 1.0% 32017-2018 309 -1.3% -4 296 1.0% 32018-2019 299 -3.2% -10 285 -3.7% -112019-2020 291 -2.7% -8 293 2.8% 82020-2021 286 -1.7% -5 299 2.0% 62021-2022 285 -0.3% -1 290 -3.0% -92022-2023 280 -1.8% -5 295 1.7% 5% Change
2011-2012 to 2022-2023
0.7% -2.3%
% Change 2011-2012 to
2017-201811.2% -2.0%
Year ZERVAS SCHOOL TOTAL ELEMENTARY K-5Total % Change # Change Total % Change # Change
2011-2012 321 -8.0% -28 5,687 0.8% 412012-2013 325 1.2% 4 5,790 1.8% 1032013-2014 317 -2.5% -8 5,799 0.2% 92014-2015 309 -2.5% -8 5,833 0.6% 342015-2016 308 -0.3% -1 5,785 -0.8% -482016-2017 337 9.4% 29 5,801 0.3% 162017-2018 407 20.8% 70 5,824 0.4% 232018-2019 432 6.1% 25 5,816 -0.1% -82019-2020 454 5.1% 22 5,740 -1.3% -762020-2021 473 4.2% 19 5,673 -1.2% -672021-2022 495 4.7% 22 5,657 -0.3% -162022-2023 486 -1.8% -9 5,627 -0.5% -30% Change
2011-2012 to 2022-2023
51.4% -1.1%
% Change 2011-2012 to
2017-201826.8% 2.4%
- 35 -
Year BIGELOW MIDDLE SCHOOL BROWN MIDDLE SCHOOL DAY MIDDLE SCHOOLTotal % Change # Change Total % Change # Change Total % Change # Change
2011-2012 533 1.9% 10 677 1.7% 21 845 11.5% 292012-2013 531 -0.4% -2 698 3.1% 21 874 3.4% 292013-2014 525 -1.1% -6 743 6.4% 45 947 8.4% 732014-2015 504 -4.0% -21 738 -0.7% -5 932 -1.6% -152015-2016 509 1.0% 5 780 5.7% 42 927 -0.5% -52016-2017 525 3.1% 16 774 -0.8% -6 922 -0.5% -52017-2018 521 -0.8% -4 753 -2.7% -21 980 6.3% 582018-2019 516 -1.0% -5 733 -2.7% -20 978 -0.2% -22019-2020 527 2.1% 11 757 3.3% 24 992 1.4% 142020-2021 554 5.1% 27 815 7.7% 58 975 -1.7% -172021-2022 535 -3.4% -19 842 3.3% 27 964 -1.1% -112022-2023 538 0.6% 3 843 0.1% 1 948 -1.7% -16% Change
2011-2012 to 2022-2023
0.9% 24.5% 12.2%
% Change 2011-2012 to
2017-2018-2.3% 11.2% 16.0%
Year OAK HILL MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTAL MIDDLE SCHOOLTotal % Change # Change Total % Change # Change
2011-2012 612 1.5% 9 2,667 2.8% 692012-2013 616 0.7% 4 2,719 1.9% 522013-2014 634 2.9% 18 2,849 4.8% 1302014-2015 632 -0.3% -2 2,806 -1.5% -432015-2016 602 -4.7% -30 2,818 0.4% 122016-2017 639 6.1% 37 2,860 1.5% 422017-2018 614 -3.9% -25 2,868 0.3% 82018-2019 625 1.8% 11 2,852 -0.6% -162019-2020 634 1.4% 9 2,910 2.0% 582020-2021 665 4.9% 31 3,009 3.4% 992021-2022 670 0.8% 5 3,011 0.1% 22022-2023 663 -1.0% -7 2,992 -0.6% -19% Change 2011-2012
to 2022-2023
8.3% 12.2%
% Change 2011-2012
to 2017-2018
0.3% 7.5%
TABLE 18PERCENT OF CHANGE BY MIDDLE SCHOOL
2011-2012 TO 2022-2023
- 36 -
Year NORTH HIGH SCHOOL SOUTH HIGH SCHOOL TOTAL HIGH SCHOOLTotal % Change # Change Total % Change # Change Total % Change # Change
2011-2012 1,877 0.3% 6 1,691 -1.0% -17 3,568 -0.3% -112012-2013 1,940 3.4% 63 1,721 1.8% 30 3,661 2.6% 932013-2014 2,015 3.9% 75 1,778 3.3% 57 3,793 3.6% 1322014-2015 2,060 2.2% 45 1,804 1.5% 26 3,864 1.9% 712015-2016 2,107 2.3% 47 1,798 -0.3% -6 3,905 1.1% 412016-2017 2,145 1.8% 38 1,851 2.9% 53 3,996 2.3% 912017-2018 2,165 0.9% 20 1,893 2.3% 42 4,058 1.6% 622018-2019 2,170 0.2% 5 1,942 2.6% 49 4,112 1.3% 542019-2020 2,154 -0.7% -16 1,996 2.8% 54 4,150 0.9% 382020-2021 2,200 2.1% 46 1,943 -2.7% -53 4,143 -0.2% -72021-2022 2,235 1.6% 35 1,946 0.2% 3 4,181 0.9% 382022-2023 2,235 0.0% 0 1,969 1.2% 23 4,204 0.6% 23% Change
2011-2012 to 2022-2023
19.1% 16.4% 17.8%
% Change 2011-2012 to 2017-2018
15.3% 11.9% 13.7%
TABLE 19PERCENT OF CHANGE BY HIGH SCHOOL
2011-2012 TO 2022-2023
- 37 -
IV. INDIVIDUAL SCHOOL REPORTS
IV. INDIVIDUAL SCHOOL REPORTS The individual school reports contain the following information: Elementary Schools
1. Enrollments by grade for last year (2016-17) and this year (2017-18) and the change in enrollment at each grade level. Enrollment projections by grade for the next five years (2018-19 to 2022-23) are also reported based on a 5-year cohort survival ratio average for grades 1 through 5 and a straight 4-year average for kindergarten.
2. Ten years of kindergarten and total school enrollments.
3. Distribution of the ages of incoming kindergarten students since 2010.
4. The number of children younger than age five living in each district.
5. A line graph depicting enrollment history over time and projections (5 years).
Middle Schools
1. Enrollments by grade for last year (2016-17) and this year (2017-18) and the change in enrollment at each grade level. Enrollment projections by grade for the next five years (2018-19 to 2022-23) are also presented based on a 5-year cohort survival ratio average.
2. Ten years of enrollment change.
3. Number of 5th grade students from feeder elementary schools who will enter the 6th grade next year (2018-19).
4. A line graph depicting enrollment history over time and projections (5 years).
High Schools
1. Enrollments by grade for last year (2016-17) and this year (2017-18) and the change in enrollment at each grade level. Enrollment projections by grade for the next five years (2018-19 to 2022-23) are also presented based on a 5-year cohort survival ratio average.
2. Ten years enrollment change.
3. Number of 8th grade students from feeder middle schools who will enter the 9th grade next year (2018-19).
4. A line graph depicting enrollment history over time and projections (5 years).
- 38 -
Angier
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
OctoberEnrollment Difference Projections Using 5-year Average Ratios***
2016 2017 N % 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Grade FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
K 78 65 -13 -16.7% 69 71 72 69 70
1 66 92 26 39.4% 71 75 77 77 75
2 79 78 -1 -1.3% 97 75 79 81 81
3 71 86 15 21.1% 81 100 77 82 83
4 70 76 6 8.6% 88 83 103 79 84
5 57 70 13 22.8% 74 86 81 100 77
Spec. Ed.** 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 421 467* 46 10.9% 480 490 489 488 470*Includes 13 METCO students.**Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time (students in K-8 are reported with their grades).***Projections include new METCO students for each year.
TEN YEARS OF TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
Enrollment Change from % Change fromYear K Total Previous Year Previous Year2008 47 3922009 48 389 -3 -0.8%2010 57 375 -14 -3.6%2011 62 395 20 5.3%2012 69 408 13 3.3%2013 67 417 9 2.2%2014 65 402 -15 -3.6%2015 62 409 7 1.7%2016 78 421 12 2.9%2017 65 467 46 10.9%
Peak enrollment year: 2017, 467 students
- 39 -
Angier
DISTRIBUTION OF THE AGES OF INCOMING KINDERGARTEN STUDENTS
Age 5 Age 6Year # % # % Total2010 56 98.2% 1 1.8% 572011 57 91.9% 5 8.1% 622012 67 97.1% 2 2.9% 692013 63 94.0% 4 6.0% 672014 61 93.8% 4 6.2% 652015 58 93.5% 4 6.5% 622016 74 94.9% 4 5.1% 782017 59 90.8% 6 9.2% 65
NUMBER OF CHILDREN YOUNGER THAN AGE FIVE
Age Number Year Entering K1 0 2021-20222 25 2020-20213 32 2019-20204 37 2018-2019
(as of January 1, 2017 City Census)
100
200
300
400
500
600
Enrollment History and Projections
- 40 -
Bowen
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
OctoberEnrollment Difference Projections Using 5-year Average Ratios***
2016 2017 N % 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Grade FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
K 60 64 4 6.7% 61 60 62 61 61
1 61 69 8 13.1% 68 65 65 66 65
2 60 61 1 1.7% 67 66 63 63 64
3 95 56 -39 -41.1% 58 64 63 60 60
4 68 98 30 44.1% 54 57 62 61 58
5 73 73 0 0.0% 102 57 59 65 64
Spec. Ed.** 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 417 421* 4 1.0% 410 369 374 376 372*Includes 15 METCO students.**Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time (students in K-8 are reported with their grades).***Projections include new METCO students for each year.
TEN YEARS OF TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
Enrollment Change from % Change fromYear K Total Previous Year Previous Year2008 59 4352009 69 454 19 4.4%2010 70 449 -5 -1.1%2011 67 448 -1 -0.2%2012 79 477 29 6.5%2013 95 502 25 5.2%2014 65 475 -27 -5.4%2015 59 449 -26 -5.5%2016 60 417 -32 -7.1%2017 64 421 4 1.0%
Peak enrollment year: 2013, 502 students
- 41 -
Bowen
DISTRIBUTION OF THE AGES OF INCOMING KINDERGARTEN STUDENTS
Age 5 Age 6Year # % # % Total2010 68 97.1% 2 2.9% 702011 63 94.0% 4 6.0% 672012 74 93.7% 5 6.3% 792013 93 97.9% 2 2.1% 952014 61 93.8% 4 6.2% 652015 55 93.2% 4 6.8% 592016 58 96.7% 2 3.3% 602017 62 96.9% 2 3.1% 64
*Age 6 for 2008-09 school year includes one 7-year old.
NUMBER OF CHILDREN YOUNGER THAN AGE FIVE
Age Number Year Entering K1 0 2021-20222 23 2020-20213 25 2019-20204 31 2018-2019
(as of January 1, 2017 City Census)
100
200
300
400
500
600
Enrollment History and Projections
- 42 -
Burr
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
OctoberEnrollment Difference Projections Using 5-year Average Ratios***
2016 2017 N % 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Grade FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
K 48 60 12 25.0% 56 54 53 54 55
1 68 51 -17 -25.0% 62 58 56 54 56
2 74 69 -5 -6.8% 51 62 58 56 54
3 80 70 -10 -12.5% 68 50 61 57 55
4 62 76 14 22.6% 69 66 49 60 56
5 70 60 -10 -14.3% 76 69 66 49 60
Spec. Ed.** 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 402 386* -16 -4.0% 382 359 343 330 336*Includes 11 METCO students.**Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time (students in K-8 are reported with their grades).***Projections include new METCO students for each year.
TEN YEARS OF TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
Enrollment Change from % Change fromYear K Total Previous Year Previous Year2008 68 3692009 69 379 10 2.7%2010 65 391 12 3.2%2011 68 409 18 4.6%2012 65 415 6 1.5%2013 80 424 9 2.2%2014 70 424 0 0.0%2015 63 412 -12 -2.8%2016 48 402 -10 -2.4%2017 60 386 -16 -4.0%
Peak enrollment year: 2013, 424 students
- 43 -
Burr
DISTRIBUTION OF THE AGES OF INCOMING KINDERGARTEN STUDENTS
Age 5 Age 6Year # % # % Total2010 60 92.3% 5 7.7% 652011 64 94.1% 4 5.9% 682012 62 95.4% 3 4.6% 652013 78 97.5% 2 2.5% 802014 67 95.7% 3 4.3% 702015 62 98.4% 1 1.6% 632016 46 95.8% 2 4.2% 482017 55 91.7% 5 8.3% 60
*Age 6 for the 2007-08 and 2008-09 school years include one 7-year old.
NUMBER OF CHILDREN YOUNGER THAN AGE FIVE
Age Number Year Entering K1 0 2021-20222 18 2020-20213 28 2019-20204 23 2018-2019
(as of January 1, 2017 City Census)
100
200
300
400
500
600
Enrollment History and Projections
- 44 -
Cabot
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
OctoberEnrollment Difference Projections Using 5-year Average Ratios***
2016 2017 N % 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Grade FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
K 52 57 5 9.6% 55 55 58 58 58
1 56 57 1 1.8% 63 62 66 66 65
2 76 64 -12 -15.8% 62 66 69 69 70
3 69 68 -1 -1.4% 66 63 69 70 70
4 76 65 -11 -14.5% 68 66 62 70 70
5 71 80 9 12.7% 67 69 68 64 72
Spec. Ed.** 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 400 391* -9 -2.3% 381 381 392 397 405*Includes 15 METCO students.**Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time (students in K-8 are reported with their grades).***Projections include new METCO students for each year.
TEN YEARS OF TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
Enrollment Change from % Change fromYear K Total Previous Year Previous Year2008 63 4252009 69 449 24 5.6%2010 72 452 3 0.7%2011 63 440 -12 -2.7%2012 73 420 -20 -4.5%2013 54 419 -1 -0.2%2014 61 418 -1 -0.2%2015 52 403 -15 -3.6%2016 52 400 -3 -0.7%2017 57 391 -9 -2.3%
Peak enrollment year: 2010, 452 students
- 45 -
Cabot
DISTRIBUTION OF THE AGES OF INCOMING KINDERGARTEN STUDENTS
Age 5 Age 6Year # % # % Total2010 71 98.6% 1 1.4% 722011 60 95.2% 3 4.8% 632012 68 93.2% 5 6.8% 732013 51 94.4% 3 5.6% 542014 58 95.1% 3 4.9% 612015 51 98.1% 1 1.9% 522016 47 90.4% 5 9.6% 522017 53 93.0% 4 7.0% 57
NUMBER OF CHILDREN YOUNGER THAN AGE FIVE
Age Number Year Entering K1 0 2021-20222 30 2020-20213 34 2019-20204 39 2018-2019
(as of January 1, 2017 City Census)
100
200
300
400
500
600
Enrollment History and Projections
- 46 -
Countryside
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
OctoberEnrollment Difference Projections Using 5-year Average Ratios***
2016 2017 N % 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Grade FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
K 63 56 -7 -11.1% 64 62 62 60 62
1 77 65 -12 -15.6% 58 65 65 63 62
2 81 69 -12 -14.8% 64 57 64 64 63
3 66 77 11 16.7% 71 66 59 66 66
4 73 73 0 0.0% 80 74 69 61 68
5 76 70 -6 -7.9% 74 81 75 70 62
Spec. Ed.** 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 436 410* -26 -6.0% 411 405 394 384 383*Includes 11 METCO students.**Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time (students in K-8 are reported with their grades).***Projections include new METCO students for each year.
TEN YEARS OF TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
Enrollment Change from % Change fromYear K Total Previous Year Previous Year2008 85 4792009 85 472 -7 -1.5%2010 86 499 27 5.7%2011 62 490 -9 -1.8%2012 69 479 -11 -2.2%2013 64 457 -22 -4.6%2014 72 466 9 2.0%2015 70 450 -16 -3.4%2016 63 436 -14 -3.1%2017 56 410 -26 -6.0%
Peak enrollment year: 2010, 499 students
- 47 -
Countryside
DISTRIBUTION OF THE AGES OF INCOMING KINDERGARTEN STUDENTS
Age 5 Age 6Year # % # % Total2010 83 96.5% 3 3.5% 862011 59 95.2% 3 4.8% 622012 66 95.7% 3 4.3% 692013 64 100.0% 0 0.0% 642014 72 100.0% 0 0.0% 722015 69 98.6% 1 1.4% 702016 63 100.0% 0 0.0% 632017 53 94.6% 3 5.4% 56
NUMBER OF CHILDREN YOUNGER THAN AGE FIVE
Age Number Year Entering K1 0 2021-20222 10 2020-20213 22 2019-20204 27 2018-2019
(as of January 1, 2017 City Census)
100
200
300
400
500
600
Enrollment History and Projections
- 48 -
Horace Mann
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
OctoberEnrollment Difference Projections Using 5-year Average Ratios***
2016 2017 N % 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Grade FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
K 62 60 -2 -3.2% 60 58 59 58 59
1 67 67 0 0.0% 64 64 64 63 63
2 62 68 6 9.7% 66 63 63 63 62
3 69 64 -5 -7.2% 70 67 65 64 64
4 71 74 3 4.2% 68 73 71 68 68
5 86 71 -15 -17.4% 73 67 73 71 67
Spec. Ed.** 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 417 404* -13 -3.1% 401 392 395 387 383*Includes 14 METCO students.**Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time (students in K-8 are reported with their grades).***Projections include new METCO students for each year.
TEN YEARS OF TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
Enrollment Change from % Change fromYear K Total Previous Year Previous Year2008 67 3702009 57 371 1 0.3%2010 67 373 2 0.5%2011 80 386 13 3.5%2012 65 394 8 2.1%2013 67 427 33 8.4%2014 65 434 7 1.6%2015 57 412 -22 -5.1%2016 62 417 5 1.2%2017 60 404 -13 -3.1%
Peak enrollment year: 2014, 434 students
- 49 -
Horace Mann
DISTRIBUTION OF THE AGES OF INCOMING KINDERGARTEN STUDENTS
Age 5 Age 6Year # % # % Total2010 65 97.0% 2 3.0% 672011 78 97.5% 2 2.5% 802012 59 90.8% 6 9.2% 652013 66 98.5% 1 1.5% 672014 62 95.4% 3 4.6% 652015 53 93.0% 4 7.0% 572016 55 88.7% 7 11.3% 622017 55 91.7% 5 8.3% 60
NUMBER OF CHILDREN YOUNGER THAN AGE FIVE
Age Number Year Entering K1 0 2021-20222 16 2020-20213 17 2019-20204 25 2018-2019
(as of January 1, 2017 City Census)
100
200
300
400
500
600
Enrollment History and Projections
- 50 -
Franklin
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
OctoberEnrollment Difference Projections Using 5-year Average Ratios***
2016 2017 N % 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Grade FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
K 79 62 -17 -21.5% 72 70 71 70 71
1 67 85 18 26.9% 64 74 73 74 73
2 89 63 -26 -29.2% 84 63 73 72 73
3 77 85 8 10.4% 65 86 65 75 75
4 64 74 10 15.6% 83 63 84 63 73
5 70 65 -5 -7.1% 75 83 64 85 64
Spec. Ed.** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 446 434* -12 -2.7% 443 439 430 439 429*Includes 11 METCO students.**Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time (students in K-8 are reported with their grades).***Projections include new METCO students for each year.
TEN YEARS OF TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
Enrollment Change from % Change fromYear K Total Previous Year Previous Year2008 56 3962009 67 402 6 1.5%2010 42 397 -5 -1.2%2011 72 401 4 1.0%2012 63 396 -5 -1.2%2013 78 389 -7 -1.8%2014 76 413 24 6.2%2015 67 424 11 2.7%2016 79 446 22 5.2%2017 62 434 -12 -2.7%
Peak enrollment year: 2016, 446 students
Franklin
DISTRIBUTION OF THE AGES OF INCOMING KINDERGARTEN STUDENTS
Age 5 Age 6Year # % # % Total2010 35 83.3% 7 16.7% 422011 71 98.6% 1 1.4% 722012 61 96.8% 2 3.2% 632013 77 98.7% 1 1.3% 782014 70 92.1% 6 7.9% 762015 64 95.5% 3 4.5% 672016 76 96.2% 3 3.8% 792017 58 93.5% 4 6.5% 62
NUMBER OF CHILDREN YOUNGER THAN AGE FIVE
Age Number Year Entering K1 0 2021-20222 39 2020-20213 43 2019-20204 42 2018-2019
(as of January 1, 2017 City Census)
100
200
300
400
500
600
Enrollment History and Projections
Lincoln-Eliot
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
OctoberEnrollment Difference Projections Using 5-year Average Ratios***
2016 2017 N % 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Grade FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
K 62 67 5 8.1% 60 62 64 63 62
1 55 67 12 21.8% 66 59 62 63 63
2 57 59 2 3.5% 68 67 60 63 64
3 63 57 -6 -9.5% 57 66 65 58 61
4 51 65 14 27.5% 57 57 67 65 59
5 58 59 1 1.7% 72 63 63 73 72
Spec. Ed.** 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 346 374* 28 8.1% 380 374 381 385 381*Includes 19 METCO students.**Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time (students in K-8 are reported with their grades).***Projections include new METCO students for each year.
TEN YEARS OF TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
Enrollment Change from % Change fromYear K Total Previous Year Previous Year2008 43 2842009 49 291 7 2.5%2010 58 293 2 0.7%2011 55 317 24 8.2%2012 48 322 5 1.6%2013 63 329 7 2.2%2014 57 337 8 2.4%2015 58 340 3 0.9%2016 62 346 6 1.8%2017 67 374 28 8.1%
Peak enrollment year: 2017, 374 students
- 51 -
Lincoln-Eliot
DISTRIBUTION OF THE AGES OF INCOMING KINDERGARTEN STUDENTS
Age 5 Age 6Year # % # % Total2010 55 94.8% 3 5.2% 582011 53 96.4% 2 3.6% 552012 48 100.0% 0 0.0% 482013 63 100.0% 0 0.0% 632014 57 100.0% 0 0.0% 572015 58 100.0% 0 0.0% 582016 58 93.5% 4 6.5% 622017 62 92.5% 5 7.5% 67
*Age 6 for the 2007-08 school year included one 7-year old.
NUMBER OF CHILDREN YOUNGER THAN AGE FIVE
Age Number Year Entering K1 0 2021-20222 17 2020-20213 35 2019-20204 35 2018-2019
(as of January 1, 2017 City Census)
100
200
300
400
500
600
Enrollment History and Projections
- 52 -
Mason-Rice
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
OctoberEnrollment Difference Projections Using 5-year Average Ratios***
2016 2017 N % 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Grade FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
K 67 68 1 1.5% 63 63 61 62 62
1 90 67 -23 -25.6% 73 68 69 67 68
2 99 89 -10 -10.1% 68 74 69 70 68
3 93 103 10 10.8% 90 69 74 70 71
4 90 96 6 6.7% 106 92 71 77 72
5 68 89 21 30.9% 97 106 93 71 77
Spec. Ed.** 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 507 512* 5 1.0% 497 472 437 417 418*Includes 9 METCO students.**Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time (students in K-8 are reported with their grades).***Projections include new METCO students for each year.
TEN YEARS OF TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
Enrollment Change from % Change fromYear K Total Previous Year Previous Year2008 67 4222009 72 428 6 1.4%2010 64 442 14 3.3%2011 64 437 -5 -1.1%2012 79 438 1 0.2%2013 88 457 19 4.3%2014 82 478 21 4.6%2015 81 492 14 2.9%2016 67 507 15 3.0%2017 68 512 5 1.0%
Peak enrollment year: 2017, 512 students
- 53 -
Mason-Rice
DISTRIBUTION OF THE AGES OF INCOMING KINDERGARTEN STUDENTS
Age 5 Age 6Year # % # % Total2010 62 96.9% 2 3.1% 642011 61 95.3% 3 4.7% 642012 69 87.3% 10 12.7% 792013 78 88.6% 10 11.4% 882014 73 89.0% 9 11.0% 822015 74 91.4% 7 8.6% 812016 63 94.0% 4 6.0% 672017 64 94.1% 4 5.9% 68
NUMBER OF CHILDREN YOUNGER THAN AGE FIVE
Age Number Year Entering K1 0 2021-20222 23 2020-20213 21 2019-20204 29 2018-2019
(as of January 1, 2017 City Census)
100
200
300
400
500
600
Enrollment History and Projections
- 54 -
Memorial-Spaulding
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
OctoberEnrollment Difference Projections Using 5-year Average Ratios***
2016 2017 N % 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Grade FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
K 71 75 4 5.6% 76 74 76 77 76
1 84 74 -10 -11.9% 79 81 79 80 80
2 85 79 -6 -7.1% 74 79 79 77 79
3 74 86 12 16.2% 78 72 76 76 75
4 72 72 0 0.0% 87 78 73 77 77
5 68 67 -1 -1.5% 72 87 78 72 76
Spec. Ed.** 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 454 453* -1 -0.2% 466 471 461 459 463*Includes 19 METCO students.**Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time (students in K-8 are reported with their grades).***Projections include new METCO students for each year.
TEN YEARS OF TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
Enrollment Change from % Change fromYear K Total Previous Year Previous Year2008 62 4422009 62 438 -4 -0.9%2010 74 459 21 4.8%2011 66 458 -1 -0.2%2012 69 464 6 1.3%2013 67 429 -35 -7.5%2014 79 434 5 1.2%2015 77 452 18 4.1%2016 71 454 2 0.4%2017 75 453 -1 -0.2%
Peak enrollment year: 2012, 464 students
- 55 -
Memorial-Spaulding
DISTRIBUTION OF THE AGES OF INCOMING KINDERGARTEN STUDENTS
Age 5 Age 6Year # % # % Total2010 71 95.9% 3 4.1% 742011 62 93.9% 4 6.1% 662012 68 98.6% 1 1.4% 692013 65 97.0% 2 3.0% 672014 74 93.7% 5 6.3% 792015 74 96.1% 3 3.9% 772016 68 95.8% 3 4.2% 712017 73 97.3% 2 2.7% 75
NUMBER OF CHILDREN YOUNGER THAN AGE FIVE
Age Number Year Entering K1 0 2021-20222 17 2020-20213 21 2019-20204 26 2018-2019
(as of January 1, 2017 City Census)
100
200
300
400
500
600
Enrollment History and Projections
- 56 -
Peirce
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
OctoberEnrollment Difference Projections Using 5-year Average Ratios***
2016 2017 N % 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Grade FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
K 38 41 3 7.9% 42 41 40 42 41
1 42 44 2 4.8% 44 44 44 44 46
2 60 43 -17 -28.3% 43 43 43 43 43
3 44 61 17 38.6% 45 45 45 45 45
4 53 38 -15 -28.3% 59 43 43 43 43
5 62 49 -13 -21.0% 36 56 41 41 41
Spec. Ed.** 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 299 276* -23 -7.7% 269 272 256 258 259*Includes 15 METCO students.**Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time (students in K-8 are reported with their grades).***Projections include new METCO students for each year.
TEN YEARS OF TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
Enrollment Change from % Change fromYear K Total Previous Year Previous Year2008 39 3382009 39 329 -9 -2.7%2010 45 318 -11 -3.3%2011 55 316 -2 -0.6%2012 51 337 21 6.6%2013 46 312 -25 -7.4%2014 48 306 -6 -1.9%2015 41 314 8 2.6%2016 38 299 -15 -4.8%2017 41 276 -23 -7.7%
Peak enrollment year: 2008, 338 students
- 57 -
Peirce
DISTRIBUTION OF THE AGES OF INCOMING KINDERGARTEN STUDENTS
Age 5 Age 6Year # % # % Total2010 42 93.3% 3 6.7% 452011 45 81.8% 10 18.2% 552012 48 94.1% 3 5.9% 512013 42 91.3% 4 8.7% 462014 44 91.7% 4 8.3% 482015 41 100.0% 0 0.0% 412016 37 97.4% 1 2.6% 382017 37 90.2% 4 9.8% 41
* Age 6 for school year 2009-10 included one 7-year old.
NUMBER OF CHILDREN YOUNGER THAN AGE FIVE
Age Number Year Entering K1 0 2021-20222 5 2020-20213 18 2019-20204 17 2018-2019
(as of January 1, 2017 City Census)
100
200
300
400
500
600
Enrollment History and Projections
- 58 -
Underwood
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
OctoberEnrollment Difference Projections Using 5-year Average Ratios***
2016 2017 N % 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Grade FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
K 47 35 -12 -25.5% 46 41 43 42 43
1 44 47 3 6.8% 38 49 44 47 45
2 65 40 -25 -38.5% 46 37 48 43 46
3 48 61 13 27.1% 41 47 38 49 44
4 55 47 -8 -14.5% 62 42 48 38 50
5 54 54 0 0.0% 47 62 42 48 39
Spec. Ed.** 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 313 284* -29 -9.3% 280 278 263 267 267*Includes 18 METCO students.**Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time (students in K-8 are reported with their grades).***Projections include new METCO students for each year.
TEN YEARS OF TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
Enrollment Change from % Change fromYear K Total Previous Year Previous Year2008 43 2822009 46 262 -20 -7.1%2010 49 282 20 7.6%2011 49 289 7 2.5%2012 47 310 21 7.3%2013 48 327 17 5.5%2014 62 341 14 4.3%2015 41 326 -15 -4.4%2016 47 313 -13 -4.0%2017 35 284 -29 -9.3%
Peak enrollment year: 2014, 341 students
- 59 -
Underwood
DISTRIBUTION OF THE AGES OF INCOMING KINDERGARTEN STUDENTS*
Age 5 Age 6Year # % # % Total2010 43 87.8% 6 12.2% 492011 46 93.9% 3 6.1% 492012 42 89.4% 5 10.6% 472013 47 97.9% 1 2.1% 482014 58 93.5% 4 6.5% 622015 40 97.6% 1 2.4% 412016 47 100.0% 0 0.0% 472017 34 97.1% 1 2.9% 35
NUMBER OF CHILDREN YOUNGER THAN AGE FIVE
Age Number Year Entering K1 0 2021-20222 16 2020-20213 17 2019-20204 21 2018-2019
(as of January 1, 2017 City Census)
100
200
300
400
500
600
Enrollment History and Projections
- 60 -
Ward
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
OctoberEnrollment Difference Projections Using 5-year Average Ratios***
2016 2017 N % 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Grade FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
K 49 35 -14 -28.6% 42 42 42 41 42
1 45 52 7 15.6% 38 45 46 47 46
2 54 49 -5 -9.3% 55 40 48 49 50
3 56 57 1 1.8% 51 57 42 50 51
4 58 56 -2 -3.4% 58 51 58 42 50
5 51 60 9 17.6% 55 56 50 56 41
Spec. Ed.** 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 313 309* -4 -1.3% 299 291 286 285 280*Includes 10 METCO students.**Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time (students in K-8 are reported with their grades).***Projections include new METCO students for each year.
TEN YEARS OF TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
Enrollment Change from % Change fromYear K Total Previous Year Previous Year2008 42 2602009 34 260 0 0.0%2010 42 269 9 3.5%2011 46 278 9 3.3%2012 47 301 23 8.3%2013 43 289 -12 -4.0%2014 46 304 15 5.2%2015 43 304 0 0.0%2016 49 313 9 3.0%2017 35 309 -4 -1.3%
Peak enrollment year: 2016, 313 students
- 61 -
Ward
DISTRIBUTION OF THE AGES OF INCOMING KINDERGARTEN STUDENTS
Age 5 Age 6Year # % # % Total2010 42 100.0% 0 0.0% 422011 45 97.8% 1 2.2% 462012 46 97.9% 1 2.1% 472013 40 93.0% 3 7.0% 432014 43 93.5% 3 6.5% 462015 41 95.3% 2 4.7% 432016 46 93.9% 3 6.1% 492017 35 100.0% 0 0.0% 35
NUMBER OF CHILDREN YOUNGER THAN AGE FIVE
Age Number Year Entering K1 0 2021-20222 10 2020-20213 17 2019-20204 27 2018-2019
(as of January 1, 2017 City Census)
100
200
300
400
500
600
Enrollment History and Projections
- 62 -
Williams
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
OctoberEnrollment Difference Projections Using 5-year Average Ratios***
2016 2017 N % 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Grade FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
K 44 47 3 6.8% 46 49 47 48 47
1 65 45 -20 -30.8% 49 48 52 50 51
2 44 65 21 47.7% 46 50 49 54 52
3 43 40 -3 -7.0% 62 45 48 47 52
4 58 45 -13 -22.4% 41 63 45 49 48
5 39 54 15 38.5% 41 38 58 42 45
Spec. Ed.** 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 293 296* 3 1.0% 285 293 299 290 295*Includes 14 METCO students.**Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time (students in K-8 are reported with their grades).***Projections include new METCO students for each year.
TEN YEARS OF TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
Enrollment Change from % Change fromYear K Total Previous Year Previous Year2008 43 2762009 51 277 1 0.4%2010 43 298 21 7.6%2011 46 302 4 1.3%2012 50 304 2 0.7%2013 45 304 0 0.0%2014 37 292 -12 -3.9%2015 62 290 -2 -0.7%2016 44 293 3 1.0%2017 47 296 3 1.0%
Peak enrollment year: 2012, 304 students
- 63 -
Williams
DISTRIBUTION OF THE AGES OF INCOMING KINDERGARTEN STUDENTS
Age 5 Age 6Year # % # % Total2010 41 95.3% 2 4.7% 432011 46 100.0% 0 0.0% 462012 49 98.0% 1 2.0% 502013 40 88.9% 5 11.1% 452014 34 91.9% 3 8.1% 372015 58 93.5% 4 6.5% 622016 43 97.7% 1 2.3% 442017 46 97.9% 1 2.1% 47
NUMBER OF CHILDREN YOUNGER THAN AGE FIVE
Age Number Year Entering K1 0 2021-20222 12 2020-20213 15 2019-20204 22 2018-2019
(as of January 1, 2017 City Census)
100
200
300
400
500
600
Enrollment History and Projections
- 64 -
Zervas
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
OctoberEnrollment Difference Projections Using 5-year Average Ratios***
2016 2017 N % 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Grade FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
K 65 58 -7 -10.8% 73 73 76 75 74
1 56 84 28 50.0% 64 78 80 83 81
2 57 64 7 12.3% 87 66 80 82 86
3 57 70 13 22.8% 68 92 70 84 85
4 55 65 10 18.2% 70 68 93 70 84
5 47 66 19 40.4% 70 77 74 101 76
Spec. Ed.** 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 337 407* 70 20.8% 432 454 473 495 486*Includes 17 METCO students.**Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time (students in K-8 are reported with their grades).***Projections include new METCO students for each year.
TEN YEARS OF TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
Enrollment Change from % Change fromYear K Total Previous Year Previous Year2008 46 3282009 45 326 -2 -0.6%2010 62 349 23 7.1%2011 40 321 -28 -8.0%2012 60 325 4 1.2%2013 53 317 -8 -2.5%2014 53 309 -8 -2.5%2015 44 308 -1 -0.3%2016 65 337 29 9.4%2017 58 407 70 20.8%
Peak enrollment year: 2017, 407 students
- 65 -
Zervas
DISTRIBUTION OF THE AGES OF INCOMING KINDERGARTEN STUDENTS
Age 5 Age 6Year # % # % Total2010 58 93.5% 4 6.5% 622011 39 97.5% 1 2.5% 402012 52 86.7% 8 13.3% 602013 52 98.1% 1 1.9% 532014 51 96.2% 2 3.8% 532015 43 97.7% 1 2.3% 442016 59 90.8% 6 9.2% 652017 54 93.1% 4 6.9% 58
NUMBER OF CHILDREN YOUNGER THAN AGE FIVE
Age Number Year Entering K1 0 2021-20222 16 2020-20213 26 2019-20204 32 2018-2019
(as of January 1, 2017 City Census)
100
200
300
400
500
600
Enrollment History and Projections
- 66 -
Bigelow Middle School
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
OctoberEnrollment Difference Projections Using 5-year Average Ratios
2016 2017 N % 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Grade FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
6 178 163 -15 -8.4% 179 181 189 160 1847 184 171 -13 -7.1% 165 180 183 191 1618 163 187 24 14.7% 172 166 182 184 193
Total 525 521 -4 -0.8% 516 527 554 535 538Spec. Ed.** 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 525 521* -4 -0.8% 516 527 554 535 538*Includes 18 METCO students.**Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time (students in K-8 are reported with their grades).
TEN YEARS OF TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
Year Total EnrollmentChange from Previous Year
Percent Change
2008 5052009 527 22 4.4%2010 523 -4 -0.8%2011 533 10 1.9%2012 531 -2 -0.4%2013 525 -6 -1.1%2014 504 -21 -4.0%2015 509 5 1.0%2016 525 16 3.1%2017 521 -4 -0.8%
Peak enrollment year: 2011, 533 students
- 67 -
Bigelow Middle School
FIFTH GRADE STUDENTS FROM THE BIGELOW FEEDER SCHOOLS
Elementary 2017-2018School 5th Grade Enrollment
Cabot 0Lincoln-Eliot 59Underwood 54Ward 60Total 173
100200300400500600700800900
1,000
Enrollment History and Projections
- 68 -
Brown Middle School
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
OctoberEnrollment Difference Projections Using 5-year Average Ratios
2016 2017 N % 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Grade FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
6 241 230 -11 -4.6% 263 265 288 287 2657 281 240 -41 -14.6% 229 262 264 289 2878 252 283 31 12.3% 241 230 263 266 291
Total 774 753 -21 -2.7% 733 757 815 842 843Spec. Ed.** 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 774 753* -21 -2.7% 733 757 815 842 843*Includes 16 METCO students.**Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time (students in K-8 are reported with their grades).
TEN YEARS OF TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
YearTotal
EnrollmentChange from Previous Year
Percent Change
2008 6812009 684 3 0.4%2010 666 -18 -2.6%2011 677 11 1.7%2012 698 21 3.1%2013 743 45 6.4%2014 738 -5 -0.7%2015 780 42 5.7%2016 774 -6 -0.8%2017 753 -21 -2.7%
Peak enrollment year: 2015, 780 students
- 69 -
Brown Middle School
Elementary 2017-2018School 5th Grade Enrollment
Angier 70Countryside 70Mason-Rice 89Williams 54Total 283
FIFTH GRADE STUDENTS FROM BROWN FEEDER SCHOOLS
100200300400500600700800900
1,000
Enrollment History and Projections
- 70 -
Day Middle School
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
OctoberEnrollment Difference Projections Using 5-year Average Ratios
2016 2017 N % 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Grade FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
6 309 351 42 13.6% 319 318 335 306 3047 318 304 -14 -4.4% 353 320 319 337 3068 295 325 30 10.2% 306 354 321 321 338
Total 922 980 58 6.3% 978 992 975 964 948Spec. Ed.** 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 922 980* 58 6.3% 978 992 975 964 948*Includes 27 METCO students.**Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time (students in K-8 are reported with their grades).
TEN YEARS OF TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
Year Total EnrollmentChange from Previous Year
Percent Change
2008 7472009 773 26 3.5%2010 758 -15 -1.9%2011 845 87 11.5%2012 874 29 3.4%2013 947 73 8.4%2014 932 -15 -1.6%2015 927 -5 -0.5%2016 922 -5 -0.5%2017 980 58 6.3%
Peak enrollment year: 2017, 980 students
- 71 -
Day Middle School
Elementary 2017-2018School 5th Grade Enrollment
Burr 60Cabot 80Franklin 65Horace Mann 71Peirce 49Total 325
FIFTH GRADE STUDENTS FROM THE DAY FEEDER SCHOOLS
100200300400500600700800900
1,0001,100
Enrollment History and Projections
- 72 -
Oak Hill Middle School
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
OctoberEnrollment Difference Projections Using 5-year Average Ratios
2016 2017 N % 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Grade FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
6 233 187 -46 -19.7% 203 241 218 209 2357 189 233 44 23.3% 188 204 242 218 2098 217 194 -23 -10.6% 234 189 205 243 219
Total 639 614 -25 -3.9% 625 634 665 670 663Spec. Ed.** 0 0 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0
TOTAL 639 614* -25 -3.9% 625 634 665 670 663*Includes 23 METCO students.**Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time (students in K-8 are reported with their grades).
TEN YEARS OF TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
YearTotal
EnrollmentChange from Previous Year
Percent Change
2008 5472009 572 25 4.6%2010 603 31 5.4%2011 612 9 1.5%2012 616 4 0.7%2013 634 18 2.9%2014 632 -2 -0.3%2015 602 -30 -4.7%2016 639 37 6.1%2017 614 -25 -3.9%
Peak enrollment year: 2016, 639 students
- 73 -
Oak Hill Middle School
FIFTH GRADE STUDENTS FROM THE OAK HILL FEEDER SCHOOLS
Elementary 2017-2018School 5th Grade Enrollment
Bowen 73Memorial-Spaulding 67Zervas 66Total 206
1997-98 marked the opening of Oak Hill Middle School.
100200300400500600700800900
1,000
Enrollment History and Projections
- 74 -
North High School
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
OctoberEnrollment Difference Projections Using 5-year Average Ratios
2016 2017 N % 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Grade FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
9 511 501 -10 -2.0% 539 511 554 537 53810 524 511 -13 -2.5% 506 544 515 558 54111 552 539 -13 -2.4% 519 513 551 522 56612 474 543 69 14.6% 535 515 509 547 519
TOTAL 2,061 2,094 33 2% 2,099 2,083 2,129 2,164 2,164Post Grads 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Spec. Ed.* 84 71 -13 -15% 71 71 71 71 71
TOTAL 2,145 2,165** 20 0.9% 2,170 2,154 2,200 2,235 2,235**Includes 70 METCO students.*Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time.
TEN YEARS OF TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
Year Total EnrollmentChange from Previous Year
Percent Change
2008 1,8292009 1,802 -27 -1.5%2010 1,871 69 3.8%2011 1,877 6 0.3%2012 1,940 63 3.4%2013 2,015 75 3.9%2014 2,060 45 2.2%2015 2,107 47 2.3%2016 2,145 38 1.8%2017 2,165 20 0.9%
Peak enrollment year: 2017, 2165 students
- 75 -
North High School
Middle 2017-2018School 8th Grade Enrollment
Bigelow 187Brown (10%) 17Day 325Total 529
EIGHTH GRADE STUDENTS FROM THE NORTH FEEDER SCHOOLS
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Enrollment History and Projections
- 76 -
South High School
ACTUAL AND PROJECTED ENROLLMENTS BY GRADE
OctoberEnrollment Difference Projections Using 5-year Average Ratios
2016 2017 N % 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022Grade FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23
9 481 479 -2 -0.4% 501 493 433 483 525
10 452 487 35 7.7% 482 504 495 435 485
11 455 449 -6 -1.3% 494 489 510 502 441
12 451 463 12 2.7% 450 495 490 511 503
TOTAL 1,839 1,878 39 2% 1,927 1,981 1,928 1,931 1,954Post Grads 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Spec. Ed.* 12 15 3 25% 15 15 15 15 15
TOTAL 1,851 1,893** 42 2.3% 1,942 1,996 1,943 1,946 1,969**Includes 66 METCO students.*Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time.
TEN YEARS OF TOTAL SCHOOL ENROLLMENTS
Year Total EnrollmentChange from Previous Year
Percent Change
2008 1,7632009 1,722 -41 -2.3%2010 1,708 -14 -0.8%2011 1,691 -17 -1.0%2012 1,721 30 1.8%2013 1,778 57 3.3%2014 1,804 26 1.5%2015 1,798 -6 -0.3%2016 1,851 53 2.9%2017 1,893 42 2.3%
Peak enrollment year: 2017, 1893 students
- 77 -
South High School
Middle 2017-2018School 8th Grade Enrollment
Brown (90%) 266OakHill 194Total 460
EIGHTH GRADE STUDENTS FROM THE SOUTH FEEDER SCHOOLS
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Enrollment History and Projections
- 78 -
V. STUDENT EXITS AND ENTRANCES
STUDENT EXITS AND ENTRANCES
This section reports on student mobility in Newton Public Schools due to the movement of students not resulting from grade promotion. The student mobility statistics reported below illuminate the annual cycle of new student entrances and student exits in the district and how net migration can affect total enrollment. In addition, exit and entrance statistics further detail the extent and the type of student mobility changes that are experienced by schools during the course of a full academic year; thus student mobility statistics reported in this section cover the entire 2016-17 school year, in contrast to other statistics in this report, which are reported as of a moment in time (October 1st). The table below displays three years of exit and entrance history. 2016-17 shows a larger positive net migration than the positive net migration in 2015-16. In 2016-17, new students comprised 7.6% of the total student population (not including new kindergarten enrollments in the fall), while student exits in the same year (not including graduates) made up 6.0% of the total population. In comparison to 2014-15, the percentage of exits in 2016-17 is smaller and the percentage of entrances is larger.
There are a significant number of students who both enter and exit the Newton Public Schools in a single year. During the 2016-17 school year, 152 students, or 16.1% of the total entrances, both entered and left the Newton Public Schools. The following table displays both the entrance and exit reasons for these students. The majority of these 152 students enrolled from outside of the country (43%), while the remainder enrolled from outside of Massachusetts, from private school, or from another town in Massachusetts. The majority of these 152 students exited because they moved out of Newton (51%) or moved out of the country (30%), while the remaining students left to attend private school or for other reasons. As illustrated in the table, the largest group of entering and exiting students enrolled from outside the country and moved out of the country during 2016-17 (40 students, or 26% of the students who entered and exited), closely followed by students who enrolled from outside of Massachusetts and moved out of Newton (37 students, or 24%).
Annual Student Mobility 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17
Number of Student Exits 863 744 757Percentage of Enrollment 6.9% 5.9% 6.0%
Number of Student Entrances 805 817 946Percentage of Enrollment 6.4% 6.5% 7.6%
In Migration (Out Migration) -58 73 189
- 79 -
Student Exit Statistics In 2016-17, a total of 757 students, or 6.0% of the total enrollment, left their schools during or after the close of the academic year, not including graduates. Overall, the greatest number of student exits resulted from students moving out of Newton, although it varied by grade level. At the elementary and high school levels, the greatest number of student exits resulted from students moving out of Newton, but at the middle school level, the greatest number of exits resulted from students leaving to attend private school. This is in contrast to last year, when the largest number of student exits at all three grade levels was for students moving out of Newton. Of the three grade levels, elementary schools saw the most student exits as a percentage of total enrollment (7.6% of elementary enrollment), followed by middle schools (6.6% of middle school enrollment), and high schools (3.2% of high school enrollment). The following tables provide the total number of exiting students by school and grade level, and by reason for exit. In these tables, the reasons for exit are displayed for exits during Summer 2017 to provide more specific information, as the majority of exits occur at or after the end of the school year. The number of exits during the 2016-17 school year, as well as all exits occurring in 2015-16 and 2016-17 (which includes the 2016-17 school year and Summer 2017 exits), are included for comparison. Displaying the statistics in this way also allows for a comparison of the total exits in Summer 2017 to the total entrances as of October 1, 2017 for a current look at how student mobility is affecting growth at the beginning of the 2017-18 school year. There were 495 total exits in Summer 2017 and (as detailed in the next section) there are 654 student entrances as of October 1, 2017.
Moved out of the Country
Moved out of Newton
Left to Attend Non-
Public School
Left Due to Special
Education Placement
Other Reasons**
Total
Enrolled from MA* 3 18 2 4 27Enrolled from outside
of MA37 5 1 43
Enrolled from outside the Country
40 20 5 65
Enrolled from Private School
3 2 12 17
Total 46 77 24 1 4 152
**Other includes non-resident student transfers, home schooled students and deceased students.
Entered from
Students who both entered and exited in 2016-17
Exited to
*The majority of students in this category have enrolled from another MA community and some have enrolled from an origin that is unknown.
- 80 -
TABLE 20
School
All 2015-16
Exits
Exits during the
2016-17 School Year
Moved out of the
Country Summer
2017
Moved Out of Newton Summer
2017
Left to Attend
Non-Public School
Summer 2017
Left Due to Special
Education Placement Summer
2017
Left for Other*
Reasons Summer
2017
All 2016-17
Exits
All Grades 744 262 89 233 156 6 11 757
% Total Enrollment 5.9% 2.1% 0.7% 1.8% 1.2% 0.0% 0.1% 6.0%
34.6% 11.8% 30.8% 20.6% 0.8% 1.5% 100.0%
*Other includes non-resident student transfers, home schooled students and deceased students.
SUMMARY ALL GRADES2016 - 2017
% of All 2016-17 Exits
School
All 2015-16
Exits
Exits during the
2016-17 School Year
Moved out of the
Country Summer
2017
Moved Out of Newton Summer
2017
Left to Attend
Non-Public School
Summer 2017
Left Due to Special
Education Placement Summer
2017
Left for Other*
Reasons Summer
2017
All 2016-17
Exits
Angier 25 8 2 7 7 24
Bowen 38 15 8 12 5 40
Burr 23 10 16 4 30
Cabot 24 9 6 10 2 27
Countryside 31 8 6 13 3 30
Franklin 19 4 1 6 3 14
Horace Mann 22 7 1 9 2 19
Lincoln-Eliot 39 12 2 20 1 35
Mason-Rice 26 3 8 10 11 32
Memorial-Spaulding 32 17 7 10 15 2 51
Peirce 40 3 8 11 13 1 36
Underwood 28 10 7 3 2 22
Ward 25 9 3 6 4 1 23
Williams 34 16 20 4 40
Zervas 23 8 3 5 2 2 20
Total 429 139 62 158 78 1 5 443
% of Elementary Enrollment 7.4% 2.4% 1.1% 2.7% 1.3% 0.0% 0.1% 7.6%
31.4% 14.0% 35.7% 17.6% 0.2% 1.1% 100.0%
*Other includes non-resident student transfers, home schooled students and deceased students.
% of All 2016-17 Exits
EXITING ELEMENTARY SCHOOL STUDENTS
2016 - 2017
- 81 -
TABLE 21
TABLE 22
School
All 2015-16
Exits
Exits during the
2016-17 School Year
Moved out of the
Country Summer
2017
Moved Out of Newton Summer
2017
Left to Attend
Non-Public School
Summer 2017
Left Due to Special
Education Placement Summer
2017
Left for Other*
Reasons Summer
2017
All 2016-17
Exits
Bigelow 36 15 4 13 7 1 1 41
Brown 42 20 5 9 23 2 59
Day 47 14 4 19 10 1 48
Oak Hill 42 8 1 13 18 40
Total 167 57 14 54 58 3 2 188
% Middle School Enrollment 5.9% 2.0% 0.5% 1.9% 2.0% 0.1% 0.1% 6.6%
30.3% 7.4% 28.7% 30.9% 1.6% 1.1% 100.0%
*Other includes non-resident student transfers, home schooled students and deceased students.
% of All 2016-17 Exits
2016 - 2017EXITING MIDDLE SCHOOL STUDENTS
School
All 2015-16
Exits
Exits during the
2016-17 School Year
Moved out of the
Country Summer
2017
Moved Out of Newton Summer
2017
Left to Attend
Non-Public School
Summer 2017
Left Due to Special
Education Placement Summer
2017
Left for Other*
Reasons Summer
2017
All 2016-17
Exits
North High 61 35 8 14 9 2 3 71
South High 87 31 5 7 11 1 55
Total 148 66 13 21 20 2 4 126
% High School Enrollment 3.8% 1.7% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 3.2%
52.4% 10.3% 16.7% 15.9% 1.6% 3.2% 100.0%% of All 2016-17 Exits
*Other includes non-resident student transfers, home schooled students and deceased students.
EXITING HIGH SCHOOL STUDENTS2016 - 2017
- 82 -
A three year history of student exits is shown below. In 2016-17, a decrease in student exits from the prior year is observed at the high school level (-14.9%), while both middle and elementary school levels had increases in student exits from last year (12.6% and 3.3%, respectively). All three grade levels, however, had smaller numbers of student exits compared to 2014-15.
TABLE 23
School 2014-15 2015-16# %
Change 2016-17# %
Change
Angier 33 25 -8 24 -1Bowen 45 38 -7 40 2Burr 31 23 -8 30 7Cabot 25 24 -1 27 3Countryside 40 31 -9 30 -1Franklin 23 19 -4 14 -5Horace Mann 31 22 -9 19 -3Lincoln-Eliot 31 39 8 35 -4Mason-Rice 21 26 5 32 6Memorial-Spaulding 39 32 -7 51 19Peirce 34 40 6 36 -4Underwood 29 28 -1 22 -6Ward 20 25 5 23 -2Williams 32 34 2 40 6Zervas 26 23 -3 20 -3Total Elementary 460 429 -31 443 14% Elementary Enrollment 7.9% 7.4% -6.7% 7.6% 3.3%Bigelow 41 36 -5 41 5Brown 44 42 -2 59 17Day 65 47 -18 48 1Oak Hill 60 42 -18 40 -2Total Middle School 210 167 -43 188 21% Middle School Enrollment 7.5% 5.9% -20.5% 6.6% 12.6%North High 91 61 -30 71 10South High 102 87 -15 55 -32Total High School 193 148 -45 126 -22% High School Enrollment 5.0% 3.8% -23.3% 3.2% -14.9%
Grand Total 863 744 -119 757 13% Total Enrollment 6.9% 5.9% -13.8% 6.0% 1.7%
TOTAL STUDENT EXITSThree Year History
- 83 -
Table 24 provides a history of student exits to private schools at the elementary, middle and high school levels since 2010-11. It includes a breakout of the number and percentage of exits in transition years after the completion of elementary school (grade 5) and middle school (grade 8). In 2016-17, 43% of students who left elementary schools to attend private school did so in grade 5, which is slightly lower than last year and similar to percentages in 2010-11 and 2011-12. Of the students who left their middle school to attend private school, 51% transferred in grade 8, an increase from the previous year.
TABLE 24
10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17
All Elementary 113 79 98 67 85 84 91
% of Elementary Enrollment 2.0% 1.4% 1.7% 2.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6%
Grade 5* 50 34 49 36 34 39 39 % of Elementary exits 44.2% 43.0% 50.0% 53.7% 40.0% 46.4% 42.9%
All Middle School 69 36 50 45 67 54 65
% of Middle School Enrollment 1.2% 1.0% 1.8% 1.2% 2.4% 1.9% 2.3%
Grade 8* 41 20 26 20 35 22 33 % of Middle School exits 59.4% 55.6% 52.0% 44.4% 52.2% 40.7% 50.8%
All High School 29 19 29 39 45 34 37
% of High School Enrollment 0.8% 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 1.2% 0.9% 0.9%
Grand Total 211 134 177 151 197 172 193
% of Total Enrollment 1.4% 0.9% 1.5% 1.2% 1.6% 1.4% 1.5%
*Statistics on Grade 5 and Grade 8 exits are provided to highlight grade level transition years.
Level
HISTORY OF EXITS TO NON-PUBLIC SCHOOLSAcademic Year
- 84 -
Student Entrance Statistics There were 946 students, or 7.6% of total enrollment, who entered Newton Public Schools in 2016-2017 who had not been students in the previous academic year, not including kindergarten entrances in the fall. This is an increase of 129 student enrollments from the prior year, when there were 817 student entrances, or 6.5% of total enrollment. The following tables provide the total number of entering students by school and grade level, and by reason for enrollment and/or origin of the enrolled student. In 2016-17, students who moved into Newton were most commonly coming from another Massachusetts community or were enrolling from outside the country, a shift in the pattern that was observed over the past two years, where students most commonly enrolled from another Massachusetts community or private school. Entrances by reason for enrollment are displayed as of October 1, 2016 to provide more specific information about entrances, as the majority of student entrances occur between the end of the prior school year and October 1st. Total entrances as of 2015-16, 2016-17, and October 1, 2017 are included for comparison. Overall, the number of student entrances as of October 1, 2017 is 654 students, which is a decrease from the prior year when there were 754 student entrances (as of October 1, 2016).
School
All 2015-16
Entrances
Oct 1 2016 Enrolled from MA*
Oct 1 2016 Enrolled
from outside of
MA
Oct 1 2016 Enrolled
from outside the
Country
Oct 1 2016 Enrolled
from Private School
Additional Entrances through
June 2017
All 2016-17
Entrances
Current Year as of October 1,
2017
All Grades 817 217 171 203 139 216 946 654
% of Total Enrollment 6.5% 1.7% 1.4% 1.6% 1.1% 1.7% 7.6% 5.2%
22.9% 18.1% 21.5% 14.7% 22.8% 100.0%* The majority of students in this category have enrolled from another MA community and some have enrolled from an origin that is unknown.
% of All 2016-17 Entrances
SUMMARY ALL GRADES
2016-17 AND 2017-18 ENTRANCES AS OF OCTOBER 1, 2017
- 85 -
TABLE 25
TABLE 26
School
All 2015-16
Entrances
Oct 1 2016 Enrolled from MA*
Oct 1 2016 Enrolled
from outside of
MA
Oct 1 2016 Enrolled
from outside the
Country
Oct 1 2016 Enrolled
from Private School
Additional Entrances through
June 2017
All 2016-17
Entrances
Current Year as of October 1,
2017
Angier 26 7 4 6 12 29 24
Bowen 38 9 3 6 2 15 35 36
Burr 26 4 5 9 2 5 25 14
Cabot 30 8 13 9 3 7 40 23
Countryside 35 14 5 5 5 19 48 22
Franklin 19 10 2 2 7 21 10
Horace Mann 17 10 1 8 3 9 31 18
Lincoln-Eliot 37 17 9 4 2 20 52 31
Mason-Rice 33 3 9 10 4 4 30 23
Memorial-Spaulding 40 5 7 11 6 10 39 24
Peirce 25 1 3 17 1 8 30 16
Underwood 24 9 1 10 5 3 28 12
Ward 25 10 7 2 4 5 28 27
Williams 34 5 4 2 3 13 27 21
Zervas 32 13 8 7 6 11 45 48
Total 441 125 79 102 54 148 508 349% of Elementary Enrollment 7.6% 2.2% 1.4% 1.8% 0.9% 2.6% 8.8% 6.0%
24.6% 15.6% 20.1% 10.6% 29.1% 100.0%
* The majority of students in this category have enrolled from another MA community and some have enrolled from an origin that is unknown.
% of All 2016-17 Entrances
ENTERING ELEMENTARY SCHOOL STUDENTS
2016-17 AND 2017-18 ENTRANCES AS OF OCTOBER 1, 2017
School
All 2015-16
Entrances
Oct 1 2016 Enrolled from MA*
Oct 1 2016 Enrolled
from outside of
MA
Oct 1 2016 Enrolled
from outside the
Country
Oct 1 2016 Enrolled
from Private School
Additional Entrances through
June 2017
All 2016-17
Entrances
Current Year as of October 1,
2017
Bigelow 34 8 13 14 5 4 44 34
Brown 34 32 1 4 14 51 36
Day 40 13 10 9 4 10 46 25
Oak Hill 43 8 7 19 8 11 53 32
Total 151 61 31 42 21 39 194 127% of Middle School Enrollment 5.4% 2.2% 1.1% 1.5% 0.7% 1.4% 6.9% 4.4%
31.4% 16.0% 21.6% 10.8% 20.1% 100.0%
* The majority of students in this category have enrolled from another MA community and some have enrolled from an origin that is unknown.
% of All 2016-17 Entrances
ENTERING MIDDLE SCHOOL STUDENTS
2016-17 AND 2017-18 ENTRANCES AS OF OCTOBER 1, 2017
- 86 -
TABLE 27
School
All 2015-16
Entrances
Oct 1 2016 Enrolled from MA*
Oct 1 2016 Enrolled
from outside of
MA
Oct 1 2016 Enrolled
from outside the
Country
Oct 1 2016 Enrolled
from Private School
Additional Entrances through
June 2017
All 2016-17
Entrances
Current Year as of October 1,
2017
North High 120 13 23 24 34 12 106 83
South High 105 18 38 35 30 17 138 95
Total 225 31 61 59 64 29 244 178
% of High School Enrollment 5.8% 0.8% 1.6% 1.5% 1.6% 0.7% 6.2% 4.5%
12.7% 25.0% 24.2% 26.2% 11.9% 100.0%
* The majority of students in this category have enrolled from another MA community and some have enrolled from an origin that is unknown.
% of All 2016-17 Entrances
ENTERING HIGH SCHOOL STUDENTS
2016-17 AND 2017-18 ENTRANCES AS OF OCTOBER 1, 2017
- 87 -
VI. NON-PUBLIC/PRIVATE SCHOOL STUDENTS
This sector privaterequired populatioindependor studenSchools anon-publ Based onenrolled 18.8% of Figures 1These figenrolled
NON
tion reports oe schools. Aby Massach
on is attendindent schools,nts who are hare includedlic school stu
n the 2017 cein non-publif the school-
1 and 2 displgures show tin non-publi
N-PUBLIC
on school-agA census of nhusetts law, ang school ou, private spechome schoold in the censuudent census
ensus, 19.1%ic schools inage populati
lay the historhat the numbic schools ha
C/PRIVA
ge children rnon-public scand providesutside of Newcial educatioled. Special us. The datas conducted
% of the schon 2016-17. Tion (2,903 st
ry of enrollmber and percas increased
TE SCHO
esiding in Nchool studens informationwton Public on schools, oeducation s
a reported inin January 2
ool-age popuThis is an inctudents) was
ment in non-pcentage of thmodestly ov
OOL STUD
Newton who nts is conducn on where NSchools. Th
other public students placn this section2017 during
ulation, or 2,crease froms enrolled in
public schoohe school-agever the past t
DENTS
are attendincted each yeNewton’s schhis includes schools, cha
ced out by Nen is based onthe 2016-17
,983 studentthe previousnon-public
ols for Newte populationtwo years.
g non-publicar, as hool-age private
arter schoolsNewton Publin the 2017 7 school year
s, were s year, whenschools.
ton residentsn in Newton
c
s, c
r.
n
s.
- 88 -
The char2016-17.schools i
The remalevels an The percmiddle, aconsistenlevels (grnon-publenrolled high schofrom 20.4non-publ
SpEdu
Collab
<
PERC
rt below show The majoris enrolled in
ainder of thid by district
entage of theand high schnt history of rades 6-12), lic schools inin non-publiool level, the4% in 2015-lic schools at
pecial ucation borative
1%
CENT OF N
ws the breakity of the schn private sch
s section exaed Newton s
e school-agehool grade lev
higher rates where appro
n 2016-17. Aic schools hae percentage-16 to 21.2%t a rate betw
Charter School
0%
NON-PUBLI
kdown of nonhool-age pop
hools in Mass
amines non-pschool.
e population vels over timof enrollme
oximately 21At the middlas decreasede of students
% in 2016-17ween 15% an
Other PublicSchool
<1%
IC SCHOO
n-public schpulation in Nsachusetts.
public schoo
attending nome is illustraent in non-pu1% of the scle school lev
d slightly, froenrolled in n. Elementar
nd 16% as the
c HomeSchoole
2%
L ENROLL
hool enrollmeNewton that
ols enrollme
on-public scated in Figurublic schoolschool-age povel, the perceom 22% in 2non-public sry students cey have sinc
e ed
In-SPrivate
95
LMENT BY
ent by type ois enrolled i
ent at the thre
chools at the re 3 below. Ts at the secon
opulation is eentage of stu2015-16 to 2schools has icontinue to bce 2006.
State e School
OuPriv
5%
Y TYPE OF S
of school in n non-public
ee grade
elementary,There is a ndary grade enrolled in udents 1.8%. At thincreased
be enrolled in
ut-of-State vate School
2%
SCHOOL
c
,
he
n
- 89 -
Three additional tables are included in this section. Table 28 displays non-public school enrollment by grade and Table 29 presents this information further delineated by districted school. Table 30 displays the distribution of Newton Public Schools students who are placed out-of-district due to the special education needs of the students by grade level and districted school. Highlights of these tables are described below:
The number of students enrolled in non-public schools increased slightly at the elementary and middle school levels, and increased by a larger extent at the high school level. The overall increase at the elementary level is due to increases in grades 4 and 5, while the increase at the middle school level is due to increases in grade 6 and 7.
Grade 6 and grade 9, both transition years in Newton, show increases in the number
of students enrolled at non-public schools from the prior year, +9 and +17 students, respectively. In 2015-16, these grades showed enrollment increases of +4 and +31 students, respectively.
Enrollment of students with special education placements attending private schools,
special education collaborative programs, or other public schools decreased slightly from 2015-16, from 134 to 126 students, a 6% decrease. For current 2017-18 enrollment statistics, please refer to Appendix A, Table 6.
- 90 -
K 188 17.7% 142 13.8% -46 -24.5%1 173 14.7% 173 15.5% 0 0.0%2 176 15.1% 175 14.4% -1 -0.6%3 204 17.3% 201 16.7% -3 -1.5%4 179 15.9% 221 18.5% 42 23.5%5 188 16.0% 199 17.3% 11 5.9%
Total 1,108 16.1% 1,111 16.1% 3 0.3%
6 244 20.2% 253 20.8% 9 3.7%7 261 22.3% 268 21.6% 7 2.7%8 288 23.4% 276 22.9% -12 -4.2%
Total 793 22.0% 797 21.8% 4 0.5%
9 263 21.3% 280 21.8% 17 6.5%10 253 20.4% 260 20.6% 7 2.8%11 242 20.3% 258 20.2% 16 6.6%12 244 19.7% 277 22.3% 33 13.5%
Total 1,002 20.4% 1,075 21.2% 73 7.3%
Grand Total 2,903 18.8% 2,983 19.1% 80 2.8%
TABLE 28
NON-PUBLIC SCHOOL STUDENTS AS PERCENT OFTOTAL SCHOOL-AGE POPULATION
BY GRADE
% of School-Age Population
% of School-Age Population
N 2015-16
N 2016-17
Note: Students that are beyond grade 12 are reported as grade 12.
Change from Prior Year (N, %)Grade
- 91 -
Elementary District N% of School
Age Population K 1 2 3 4 5 N% of School
Age Population
Angier 86 17.4% 6 10 15 14 16 12 73 14.8%Bowen 92 17.0% 19 23 22 15 22 26 127 23.3%Burr 19 4.4% 2 5 2 7 5 4 25 5.9%Cabot 81 16.7% 12 13 16 19 16 11 87 17.9%Countryside 68 13.1% 5 9 10 15 10 12 61 12.3%Franklin 41 8.8% 7 7 0 5 9 5 33 6.9%Horace Mann 50 10.8% 9 9 5 11 8 7 49 10.5%Lincoln-Eliot 39 10.3% 10 8 7 9 9 10 53 13.3%Mason-Rice 101 17.0% 15 8 12 18 16 20 89 14.9%Memorial-Spaulding 147 24.5% 17 21 22 23 31 17 131 22.4%Peirce 97 23.6% 9 15 15 19 20 24 102 25.4%Underwood 57 14.9% 5 8 9 10 16 8 56 15.2%Ward 122 28.6% 15 25 14 15 24 18 111 26.2%Williams 24 7.6% 2 3 5 3 5 6 24 7.6%Zervas 84 21.4% 9 9 21 18 14 19 90 21.1%Total Elementary 1,108 16.1% 142 173 175 201 221 199 1,111 16.1%
6 7 8Bigelow Middle 139 21.5% 44 47 47 138 20.8%Brown Middle 231 22.8% 74 73 91 238 23.5%Day Middle 216 18.9% 70 80 67 217 19.1%Oak Hill Middle 207 25.6% 65 68 71 204 24.2%Total Middle School 793 22.0% 253 268 276 797 21.8%
9 10 11 12Newton North 460 17.9% 124 121 114 123 482 18.3%Newton South 542 23.2% 156 139 144 154 593 24.3%Total High School 1002 20.4% 280 260 258 277 1075 21.2%
GRAND TOTAL 2,903 18.8% 2,983 19.1%Notes1) Students that are beyond grade 12 are reported as grade 12.2) Students residing in buffer zones are assigned a districted school according to the attendance percentages of currently enrolled buffer zone resident students.
BY DISTRICTED SCHOOL AND GRADE LEVEL
NON-PUBLIC SCHOOL STUDENTS
TABLE 29
AS PERCENT OF TOTAL SCHOOL-AGE POPULATION
2016-172016-17 by Grade2015-16
- 92 -
Total TotalAs of As of
Elementary 2015-16 PK K 1 2 3 4 5 2016-17
Angier 0 0Bowen 0 0Burr 0 1 1Cabot 0 0Countryside 1 1 1Franklin 3 1 1 2Horace Mann 4 1 1 2Lincoln-Eliot 2 1 1Mason-Rice 2 1 1Memorial-Spaulding 2 1 1 2Peirce 0 0Underwood 0 1 1Ward 0 0Williams 0 0Zervas 0 0
Total Elementary 14 0 0 2 0 5 3 1 11
6 7 8
Bigelow Middle 2 2 1 3Brown Middle 10 2 4 2 8Day Middle 12 2 3 4 9Oak Hill Middle 10 2 4 6
Total Middle School 34 4 11 11 26
9 10 11 12
Newton North 46 13 9 6 22 50Newton South 40 11 5 9 14 39
Total High School 86 24 14 15 36 89Grand Total 134 126
Note: Students that are beyond grade 12 are reported as grade 12.
2016-17 Grade
TABLE 30
SPECIAL EDUCATION STUDENTSTUITIONED-OUT TO NON-PUBLIC SCHOOLS
BY DISTRICTED SCHOOL AND GRADE LEVEL
- 93 -
APPENDICES
A. STUDENT POPULATION DETAIL
B. CITY OF NEWTON POPULATION
C. RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY DATA
D. NESDEC’S ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS VS. NEWTON’S
E. SCHOOL DISTRICTS AND BUFFER ZONES
F. RESIDENTIAL DEVELOPMENT
APPENDIX A STUDENT POPULATION DETAIL
Demographic Information (Table 1)
Tables 1A – 1D provide demographic information for enrollments by school and by grade. Table 1A displays the percentage of 2017-18 enrollments by race/ethnicity for each school and the district. Table 1B displays the percentage of 2017-18 enrollments by race/ethnicity for each grade level.
School
African American/
BlackAsian
Hispanicor Latino
American Indian or Alaska Native
White
Native Hawaiian,
Pacific Islander
Multi-Race, Non-
HispanicAngier 467 3% 14% 5% 0% 72% 0% 6%Bowen 421 8% 25% 5% 0% 57% 0% 5%Burr 386 6% 20% 10% 0.3% 57% 0% 7%Cabot 391 4% 13% 4% 0% 70% 0% 9%Countryside 410 4% 22% 8% 0.2% 57% 0% 9%Franklin 434 3% 12% 9% 0.2% 69% 0.2% 6%Horace Mann 404 4% 19% 8% 0% 60% 0% 9%Lincoln-Eliot 374 9% 17% 16% 0% 51% 0% 7%Mason-Rice 512 2% 14% 4% 0% 74% 0% 7%Memorial-Spaulding 453 4% 26% 9% 0% 55% 0% 6%Peirce 276 4% 21% 7% 0% 60% 1.1% 6%Underwood 284 3% 18% 11% 0.4% 63% 0% 4%Ward 309 3% 12% 4% 0% 73% 0% 8%Williams 296 4% 28% 9% 0.3% 53% 0% 5%Zervas 407 5% 22% 6% 0.2% 58% 0.0% 8%TOTAL ELEMENTARY 5,824 4% 19% 8% 0.1% 62% 0.1% 7%Bigelow 521 6% 15% 9% 0.4% 63% 0% 6%Brown 753 4% 22% 7% 0% 61% 0% 6%Day 980 6% 15% 9% 0.2% 63% 0% 7%Oak Hill 614 4% 22% 5% 0.2% 60% 0.2% 8%TOTAL MIDDLE 2,868 5% 18% 8% 0.2% 62% 0.0% 7%Newton North 2,165 6% 15% 9% 0.3% 65% 0.1% 5%Newton South 1,893 5% 20% 6% 0.1% 64% 0% 4%TOTAL HIGH SCHOOL 4,058 6% 17% 8% 0.2% 65% 0.1% 5%GRAND TOTAL 12,750 5% 18% 8% 0.1% 63% 0.1% 6%
TABLE 1AENROLLMENTS BY RACE/ETHNICITY BY SCHOOL
2017-2018
Percentage of enrollment
TotalEnrollment
FY18
- 94 -
Tables 1C and 1D display the percentage of students who are low income (measured by students qualifying for free or reduced price lunch) and the percentage of students who are economically disadvantaged for 2016-17 and 2017-18. The economically disadvantaged indicator is a newly tracked indicator (introduced by the state in 2015) to replace the low income indicator, due to the introduction of the Community Eligibility Provision to the USDA School Lunch Program that no longer requires the collection of lunch forms by participating districts. The economically disadvantaged indicator includes students who participate in one or more of the following state-administered programs: SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program), TAFDC (Transitional Aid to Families with Dependent Children), DCF (Department of Children and Families’ foster care program), and Medicaid (MassHealth). Both indicators are available in Newton. For 2017-18, the percentages of economically disadvantaged by school and grade are estimated based on the most recent free and reduced lunch data, as the actual percentages are not yet available from the state.
Grade
African American/
BlackAsian
Hispanic or Latino
American Indian or Alaska Native
White
Native Hawaiian,
Pacific Islander
Multi-Race, Non-
HispanicK 850 4% 18% 8% 0% 61% 0.1% 9%1 966 4% 18% 8% 0% 61% 0.2% 8%2 960 4% 21% 8% 0% 61% 0% 6%3 1,041 5% 17% 7% 0.2% 64% 0.1% 7%4 1,020 5% 20% 6% 0.2% 63% 0% 5%5 987 3% 19% 8% 0.2% 63% 0% 6%
TOTAL ELEMENTARY 5,824 4% 19% 8% 0.1% 62% 0.1% 7%6 931 4% 18% 8% 0.1% 63% 0.1% 6%7 948 4% 17% 7% 0.2% 63% 0% 8%8 989 6% 19% 7% 0.2% 60% 0% 7%
TOTAL MIDDLE 2,868 5% 18% 8% 0.2% 62% 0.0% 7%9 991 6% 18% 8% 0.3% 62% 0.1% 6%
10 1,013 7% 16% 7% 0.1% 65% 0% 5%11 1,004 5% 17% 8% 0.4% 66% 0% 4%12 1,050 5% 18% 8% 0% 66% 0.2% 4%
TOTAL HIGH 4,058 6% 17% 8% 0.2% 65% 0.1% 5%GRAND TOTAL 12,750 5% 18% 8% 0.1% 63% 0.1% 6%
TotalEnrollment
FY18
Percentage of enrollment
TABLE 1BENROLLMENTS BY RACE/ETHNICITY BY GRADE
2017-2018
Note: Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time are included with their grade levels in this table.
- 95 -
School
Low IncomeFY17
Low IncomeFY18
% PointChange
Eco. Disadv. FY17
Eco. Disadv. FY18*
% PointChange
Angier 467 7% 8% 1% 3% 5% 2%Bowen 421 13% 13% 0% 10% 11% 1%Burr 386 10% 12% 2% 7% 10% 3%Cabot 391 12% 13% 1% 7% 8% 1%Countryside 410 13% 18% 5% 11% 15% 4%Franklin 434 13% 12% -1% 9% 9% 0%Horace Mann 404 15% 16% 1% 10% 13% 3%Lincoln-Eliot 374 28% 33% 5% 21% 24% 3%Mason-Rice 512 5% 7% 2% 3% 6% 3%Memorial-Spaulding 453 10% 10% 0% 8% 7% -1%Peirce 276 11% 8% -3% 6% 6% 0%Underwood 284 16% 15% -1% 13% 11% -2%Ward 309 6% 5% -1% 4% 3% -1%Williams 296 8% 12% 4% 6% 9% 3%Zervas 407 13% 16% 3% 10% 12% 2%TOTAL ELEMENTARY 5,824 12% 13% 1% 8% 10% 2%Bigelow 521 20% 20% 0% 12% 13% 1%Brown 753 10% 13% 3% 6% 9% 3%Day 980 15% 17% 2% 9% 12% 3%Oak Hill 614 14% 15% 1% 10% 11% 1%TOTAL MIDDLE 2,868 14% 16% 2% 9% 11% 2%Newton North 2,165 18% 19% 1% 10% 13% 3%Newton South 1,893 14% 15% 1% 9% 11% 2%TOTAL HIGH SCHOOL 4,058 16% 17% 1% 10% 12% 2%GRAND TOTAL 12,750 14% 15% 1% 9% 11% 2%
2017-2018
TABLE 1C
ENROLLMENTS BY LOW INCOME AND ECONOMICALLY DISADVANTAGED BY SCHOOL
TotalEnrollment
FY18
Percentage of enrollment
*Economically Disadvantaged percentages for FY18 are estimates based on FY18 free and reduced price lunch data.
- 96 -
Grade
Low IncomeFY17
Low IncomeFY18
% PointChange
Eco. Disadv. FY17
Eco. Disadv. FY18*
% PointChange
K 850 7% 12% 5% 7% 10% 3%1 966 12% 12% 0% 9% 10% 1%2 960 11% 13% 2% 7% 10% 3%3 1,041 14% 12% -2% 10% 8% -2%4 1,020 13% 15% 2% 8% 12% 4%5 987 14% 14% 0% 10% 10% 0%
TOTAL ELEMENTARY 5,824 12% 13% 1% 8% 10% 2%6 931 14% 17% 3% 8% 12% 4%7 948 15% 14% -1% 9% 10% 1%8 989 14% 17% 3% 10% 12% 2%
TOTAL MIDDLE 2,868 14% 16% 2% 9% 11% 2%9 991 14% 17% 3% 8% 12% 4%
10 1,013 16% 16% 0% 10% 12% 2%11 1,004 15% 18% 3% 9% 14% 5%12 1,050 20% 17% -3% 12% 12% 0%
TOTAL HIGH 4,058 16% 17% 1% 9% 12% 3%GRAND TOTAL 12,750 14% 15% 1% 9% 11% 2%
*Economically Disadvantaged percentages for FY18 are estimates based on FY18 free and reduced price lunch data.
TotalEnrollment
FY17
Percentage of enrollment
TABLE 1D
ENROLLMENTS BY LOW INCOME AND ECONOMICALLY DISADVANTAGED BY GRADE2017-2018
Note: Students who receive special education services outside of the classroom for a significant amount of time are included with their grade levels in this table.
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Preschool Enrollment (Table 2) Table 2 displays preschool enrollment in Newton for 2017-18 and 2016-17. Preschool enrollment as of October 1, 2017 is 198 students, an increase of 3 students from the prior year. The majority of current preschool students (67%) are receiving special education services. Table 2A displays the nature of disability for current preschool students.
Category 2016-17 2017-18 Difference % Change
Role Model Students 62 65 3 4.8%
Students Receiving Services 133 133 0 0.0%
TOTAL 195 198 3 1.5%
Type of Need
Developmental Delay (ages 3 to 9 only)
Typically Developing/Role Model
Communication
Autism
Neurological
Health
Sensory/Hard of Hearing or Deaf
Emotional
TOTAL 198
79
65
23
22
4
1
4
0
Number of Students
PRESCHOOL STUDENTSOCTOBER 1, 2017
TABLE 2PRESCHOOL STUDENTS
OCTOBER 1, 2016 AND OCTOBER 1, 2017
TABLE 2A
- 98 -
METCO Enrollment (Table 3) The number of students participating in the METCO Program in the Newton Schools as of October 1, 2017 is 431. Of the 431 students, 49% are enrolled in the elementary schools, 20% are at the middle schools, and 32% are at the high schools.
K 1 2 3 4 5
Angier 2 2 1 2 2 4 13
Bowen 3 3 5 4 15
Burr 1 3 4 3 11
Cabot 1 1 1 5 4 3 15
Countryside 2 6 3 11
Franklin 1 2 2 4 2 11
Horace Mann 5 2 3 2 2 14
Lincoln-Eliot 2 2 5 5 1 4 19
Mason-Rice 1 6 2 9
Memorial-Spaulding 3 5 5 4 2 19
Peirce 5 4 4 1 1 15
Underwood 1 1 2 4 5 5 18
Ward 2 3 3 2 10
Williams 1 2 3 2 6 14
Zervas 3 3 1 2 6 2 17
Total Elementary 19 34 41 40 40 37 0 211
49.0%
6 7 8
7 6 5 18
1 5 10 16
6 8 13 27
7 8 8 23
21 27 36 0 84
19.5%
9 10 11 12
22 22 14 12 70
19 24 12 11 66
41 46 26 23 0 136
31.6%
431
* The enrollment includes students who receive special education services outside the regular classroom for a significant amount of time.
Bigelow
Brown
Day
Oak Hill
Grand Total
North High
South High
Total High School
Total Middle
Grade level as % of all METCO students
Grade level as % of all METCO students
TABLE 3
BY SCHOOL AND GRADEGrade
2017-18 METCO ENROLLMENT
SchoolSpecial
Education*Total
Grade level as % of all METCO students
- 99 -
English Language Learners (Tables 4 and 5) Table 4 indicates an increase of 22 students, or +2.6%, in the number of K-12 students identified as "English Language Learners" and enrolled in the state-mandated Sheltered English Immersion Program from last year. There are a total of 881 students in the program this year versus 859 students one year ago. The English Language Learners population has grown by 565 students, or 179%, since 1990.
Year (as of October 1) Program Enrollment Difference % Change
1990 316
1991 390 74 23.4%
1992 414 24 6.2%
1993 486 72 17.4%
1994 468 -18 -3.7%
1995 454 -14 -3.0%
1996 485 31 6.8%
1997 480 -5 -1.0%
1998 466 -14 -2.9%
1999 509 43 9.2%
2000 566 57 11.2%
2001 581 15 2.7%
2002 551 -30 -5.2%
2003 545 -6 -1.1%
2004 551 6 1.1%
2005 522 -29 -5.3%
2006 553 31 5.9%
2007 635 82 14.8%
2008 650 15 2.4%
2009 687 37 5.7%
2010 766 79 11.5%
2011 783 17 2.2%
2012 778 -5 -0.6%
2013 911 133 17.1%
2014 875 -36 -4.0%
2015 827 -48 -5.5%
2016 859 32 3.9%
2017 881 22 2.6%
TABLE 4
1990 - PRESENTENGLISH LANGUAGE LEARNERS
*Starting in 2017, per state requirements, preschool students were screened through the English Language Learners office. In 2017, 26 PK students were identified as ELLs (they are not included in 2017 program enrollment).
- 100 -
Table 5 on the following page shows the number of English Language Learner students by grade level and first language in the current year and the two years prior. The elementary ELL population has increased by 5 students from last year. The ELL population at the secondary level (grades 6 -12) has increased by 17 students from last year. Table 5 also shows the number of students in each of the seven largest language groups for this school year and the prior two school years. The students in these groups receive native language support as needed. "Other" languages, including French, Vietnamese, Pushtu/Pashtu, Turkish, and Arabic, among others, represent 20% of the total ELL program enrollment in 2017-18.
- 101 -
LA
NG
UA
GE
K-5
6-12
To
tal
K-5
6-12
To
tal
K-5
6-12
To
tal
K-5
6-12
To
tal
K-5
6-12
To
tal
Chi
nese
(A
ll F
orm
s)15
786
243
154
8924
3-3
30
157
9124
83
25
Rus
sian
102
1611
896
1110
7-6
-5-1
178
1088
-18
-1-1
9
Spa
nish
7623
9967
4311
0-9
2011
6337
100
-4-6
-10
Kor
ean
3711
4834
842
-3-3
-643
1053
92
11
Japa
nese
295
3439
746
102
1256
1470
177
24
Heb
rew
5112
6366
2187
159
2470
2595
44
8
Por
tugu
ese
2117
3835
1550
14-2
1230
2050
-55
0
Oth
er11
767
184
120
5417
43
-13
-10
119
5817
7-1
43
TO
TA
L59
023
782
761
124
885
921
1132
616
265
881
517
22
*Sta
rtin
g in
20
17
, pe
r s
tate
re
qu
ire
me
nts
, pre
sch
oo
l stu
de
nts
we
re s
cre
en
ed
thro
ug
h th
e E
ng
lish
La
ng
ua
ge
Le
arn
ers
offi
ce. I
n 2
01
7, 2
6 P
K s
tud
en
ts w
ere
id
en
tifie
d a
s E
LL
s (
the
y a
re n
ot i
ncl
ud
ed
in 2
01
7 p
rog
ram
en
rollm
en
t).
TR
EN
DS
OV
ER
TH
RE
E Y
EA
RS
2016
-17
vs.
2017
-18
TA
BL
E 5
BY
FIR
ST
LA
NG
UA
GE
AN
D G
RA
DE
LE
VE
L
2015
-16
vs.
2016
-17
EN
GL
ISH
LA
NG
UA
GE
LE
AR
NE
RS
Dif
fere
nce
Dif
fere
nce
20
16
-17
20
15
-16
20
17
-18
- 102 -
Students with Special Education Services (Table 6) The following table reports five years of enrollment history of students requiring special education services by placement type and grade level, which has been stable. Program placement type is defined according to the time out of the regular classroom environment required by a special education placement. The majority of students with special education services are fully included in the general education classroom, with less than 21% of time spent outside of the classroom. For all grade levels combined, the percentage of students receiving special education services in the Newton Public Schools this year is 19.0%. This is a decrease of 2 students from last school year. There are slightly fewer special education students at the elementary and middle grade levels this year, with 855 students (14.7% of total elementary enrollment) and 589 students (20.5% of total middle enrollment) respectively, versus 872 students at the elementary level (15.0% of elementary enrollment) and 604 students at the middle school level (21.1% of middle enrollment) last year. There is an increase of 30 students receiving special education services at the high school level. This year, similar to last year, there has been a slight increase in out of district placements as of October 2017, with slightly more students placed out of district to private special education schools (139 students vs. 128 in October 2016 and 123 in October 2015). Ten year trends in the distribution of students by special education placement and grade level are illustrated in the graph at the end of the section.
TABLE 6 DISTRIBUTION OF STUDENTS RECEIVING SPECIAL EDUCATION SERVICES
Level 10 20 40* 41* 50 60* 70 90
% of Time Outside Classroom <21% 21-60% >60% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Elementary 779 46 16 2 11 1 0 0 855 14.7%
Middle 418 120 27 3 21 0 0 0 589 20.5%
High 650 140 83 31 52 16 0 2 974 24.0%
Total 1,847 306 126 36 84 17 0 2 2,418 19.0%
Level 10 20 40* 41* 50 60* 70 90
% of Time Outside Classroom <21% 21-60% >60% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Elementary 775 37 49 2 8 1 0 0 872 15.0%
Middle 419 116 44 1 24 0 0 0 604 21.1%
High 628 111 113 12 60 18 0 2 944 23.6%
Total 1,822 264 206 15 92 19 0 2 2,420 19.1%
**Pre-school students are not included. If Pre-school students (133) were included in this table, the total Special Education population would be 2,553 (20.2%).
October 2016
Level of Service
Total Special Education**
% of Total Enrollment
*The Level of Service of "40" is the highest level of service within Newton Public Schools and is defined as "All ages, in a substantially separate classroom"; "41" and "50" is "All ages, in a Public/Private Separate Day School"; "60" and higher is "All ages, in a Residential School." Tuitioned out students are included in codes "41" and higher.
**Pre-school students are not included. If Pre-school students (133) were included in this table, the total Special Education population would be 2,551 (20.0%).
October 2017
Level of Service
Total Special Education**
% of Total Enrollment
*The Level of Service of "40" is the highest level of service within Newton Public Schools and is defined as "All ages, in a substantially separate classroom"; "41" and "50" is "All ages, in a Public/Private Separate Day School"; "60" and higher is "All ages, in a Residential School." Tuitioned out students are included in codes "41" and higher.
- 103 -
TABLE 6 (Continued) DISTRIBUTION OF STUDENTS RECEIVING SPECIAL EDUCATION SERVICES
TEN YEAR TRENDS PERCENTAGE OF STUDENTS RECEIVING SPECIAL EDUCATION SERVICES
Level 10 20 40* 41* 50 60* 70 90
% of Time Outside Classroom <21% 21-60% >60% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Elementary 758 77 16 1 8 0 0 0 860 14.9%
Middle 401 121 41 3 29 2 0 0 597 21.2%
High 627 132 107 7 50 19 0 4 946 24.2%
Total 1,786 330 164 11 87 21 0 4 2,403 19.2%
Level 10 20 40* 41* 50 60* 70 90
% of Time Outside Classroom <21% 21-60% >60% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Elementary 749 79 14 2 9 0 0 853 14.6%
Middle 416 132 54 5 30 0 1 638 22.7%
High 587 139 93 10 57 9 0 3 898 23.2%
Total 1,752 350 161 17 96 9 0 4 2,389 19.1%
Level 10 20 40* 41* 50 60* 70 90
% of Time Outside Classroom <21% 21-60% >60% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Elementary 728 71 12 2 13 0 0 0 826 14.2%
Middle 424 139 43 4 31 1 0 0 642 22.5%
High 585 128 97 6 67 9 0 3 895 23.6%
Total 1,737 338 152 12 111 10 0 3 2,363 19.0%
**Pre-school students are not included. If Pre-school students (107) were included in this table, the total Special Education population would be 2,510 (20.1%).
October 2015
Level of Service
Total Special Education**
% of Total Enrollment
*The Level of Service of "40" is the highest level of service within Newton Public Schools and is defined as "All ages, in a substantially separate classroom"; "41" and "50" is "All ages, in a Public/Private Separate Day School"; "60" and higher is "All ages, in a Residential School." Tuitioned out students are included in codes "41" and higher.
October 2014
Level of Service
Total Special Education**
% of Total Enrollment
*The Level of Service of "40" is the highest level of service within Newton Public Schools and is defined as "All ages, in a substantially separate classroom"; "41" and "50" is "All ages, in a Public/Private Separate Day School"; "60" and higher is "All ages, in a Residential School." Tuitioned out students are included in codes "41" and higher.
**Pre-school students are not included. If Pre-school students (131) were included in this table, the total Special Education population would be 2,520 (20.2%).
**Pre-school students are not included. If Pre-school students (112) were included in this table, the total Special Education population would be 2,475 (19.9%).
October 2013
Level of Service
Total Special Education**
% of Total Enrollment
*The Level of Service of "40" is the highest level of service within Newton Public Schools and is defined as "All ages, in a substantially separate classroom"; "41" and "50" is "All ages, in a Public/Private Separate Day School"; "60" and higher is "All ages, in a Residential School." Tuitioned out students are included in codes "41" and higher.
- 104 -
Non-Resident Students (Table 7) The number of non-resident students attending the Newton Public Schools remained the same as last year, although there are fluctuations by non-resident type, and is currently 599 students.
Category 2016-17 2017-18 Difference % Change
METCO Program Students 428 431 3 0.7%
Tuition-In Students 0 0 0 0.0%
Hearing Impaired (EDCO) 22 19 -3 -13.6%
Faculty Children 116 124 8 6.9%
Approved to Attend* 11 13 2 18.2%
Foreign Exchange Student 22 12 -10 -45.5%
TOTAL 599 599 0 0.0%
TABLE 7NON-RESIDENT STUDENTS
OCTOBER 1, 2016 AND OCTOBER 1, 2017
* Students may be "Approved to Attend" for reasons including status as a homeless student or state ward, or due to another time-limited residency issue.
- 105 -
Age Range1990
Census*2000
Census*2010
Census*
Change 2010 Census vs. 2000
Census % Change
0-4 4,423 4,401 4,497 96 2.2%
5-9 4,411 5,014 5,290 276 5.5%
10-14 3,935 5,267 5,336 69 1.3%
15-19 6,800 6,653 8,017 1,364 20.5%
20-24 7,189 5,133 5,594 461 9.0%
25-34 13,609 10,809 8,268 (2,541) -23.5%
35-44 13,590 12,823 10,755 (2,068) -16.1%
45-54 9,025 13,400 12,621 (779) -5.8%
55-59 3,569 4,408 6,132 1,724 39.1%
60-64 3,743 3,281 5,657 2,376 72.4%
65-74 6,449 5,918 6,197 279 4.7%
75-84 4,248 4,667 4,294 (373) -8.0%
85 and Older 1,594 2,055 2,488 433 21.1%
Grand Total 82,585 83,829 85,146 1,317 1.6%
*Source: U.S. Census Bureau, City of Newton, Massachusetts Census
City of Newton, Massachusetts Population Growth
APPENDIX B
TABLE 8
- 106 -
School District 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Angier 64 60 71 42 50 45 68 58 70 67 78 84Angier/Williams 6 7 6 6 9 7 7 7 13 8 4 5Angier/Zervas 25 25Bowen 172 142 142 128 144 153 134 165 76 95 62 67Bowen/Mason-Rice 9 9 8 7 6 6 13 15 18 24 9 9Bowen/Memorial Spaulding 64 65 54 45Bowen/Ward 10 24 17 11Burr 65 41 45 39 45 36 54 55 51 60 47 55Burr/Williams 9 6 6 3 5 5 6 7 12 6 0 0Cabot 90 76 77 68 48 81 46 91 82 80 78 67Countryside 79 55 69 61 50 66 64 70 61 81 109 86Countryside/Angier 49 45 59 32 39 33 31 42 35 56 0 0Countryside/Bowen 13 12 11 12 14 11 10 5 12 12 13 15Countryside/Zervas 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 0 0Franklin 62 55 74 45 55 77 66 66 66 97 69 35Franklin/Burr 5 7 12 8 15 9 5 15 12 17 10 21Horace Mann 50 43 56 37 38 49 32 52 53 56 41 39Horace Mann/Cabot 5 1Horace Mann/Franklin 7 7 4 7 6 9 3 8 4 9 2 12Horace Mann/Lincoln-Eliot 7 7 11 5 4 4 7 9 13 8 8 7Lincoln-Eliot 69 77 69 42 43 47 49 62 66 65 59 57Mason-Rice 65 56 84 69 52 52 50 67 57 71 75 38Mason-Rice/Ward 15 4 12 11 6 6 4 12 11 12 11 13Memorial-Spaulding 111 91 92 77 91 100 94 114 98 111 117 108Memorial-Spaulding/Countryside 3 2 1 3 2 5 4 1 2 4 2 9Peirce 40 54 59 43 34 39 33 49 47 38 43 45Peirce/Williams 12 10 9 14 4 10 10 18 13 15 12 8Underwood 72 65 54 56 56 48 55 76 73 67 76 52Underwood/Ward 4 0 1 5 0 1 1 2 3 3 2 9Ward 59 53 56 105 52 40 62 62 54 59 68 62Williams 35 61 32 21 33 28 31 33 41 41 38 27Zervas 52 39 52 47 45 45 43 52 46 57 79 79Zervas/Mason-Rice 1 3 0 1 1 0 2 2 0 1 0 0
Totals 1,227 1,089 1,173 995 948 1,013 985 1,216 1,165 1,311 1,213 1,091
* Calendar Year 2017 information is from January 1 to October 31, 2017.
Residential Property Sales by District January 2005 to October 2017CITY OF NEWTON
APPENDIX CTABLE 9
- 107 -
APPE
NDIX C ‐ TA
BLE 10
PROPE
RTIES LISTED
FOR SA
LE IN
NEW
TON, M
A. BY ELEM
ENTA
RY DISTR
ICT
SIN
GL
E F
AM
ILY
- S
F
CO
ND
O -
C
Sch
oo
l Dis
tric
t
Nu
mb
er o
f T
axab
le
Pro
per
ties
% F
or
Sal
eN
um
ber
fo
r S
ale
Nu
mb
er
for
Sal
e L
ast
Yea
r2
B.R
.3
B.R
.4
B.R
. 5
B.R
. 6+
B
.R.
1 B
.R.
2 B
.R.
3 B
.R.
4 B
.R.
5+
B.R
.S
FC
MF
Ang
ier
1,39
50.
9%13
143
33
410
0%0%
0%B
owen
1,27
90.
5%6
171
11
21
33%
67%
0%B
urr
1,28
00.
3%4
41
11
150
%50
%0%
Cab
ot1,
930
0.5%
1011
12
12
12
160
%40
%0%
Cou
ntry
side
1,42
31.
1%15
126
42
11
186
%13
%0%
Fra
nklin
1,70
40.
2%4
64
100%
0%0%
Hor
ace
Man
n1,
313
0.7%
911
31
14
33%
67%
0%Li
ncol
n-E
liot
1,53
40.
3%4
81
11
149
%50
%0%
Mas
on-R
ice
1,72
80.
2%3
101
11
100%
0%0%
Mem
oria
l-Spa
uldi
ng2,
113
1.3%
2824
33
135
11
11
86%
14%
0%P
eirc
e1,
012
1.5%
1510
11
49
100%
0%0%
Und
erw
ood
1,43
20.
8%11
141
21
43
36%
64%
0%W
ard
1,39
50.
7%10
102
42
210
0%0%
0%W
illia
ms
758
0.7%
59
21
240
%60
%0%
Zer
vas
1,23
80.
4%5
81
31
100%
0%0%
Ang
ier/
Zer
vas
968.
3%8
32
11
12
150
%50
%0%
Bow
en /
Mas
on R
ice
611
1B
owen
/Mem
oria
l-Spa
uldi
ng
854
0.9%
89
14
21
0%10
0%0%
Bow
en /
War
d10
16.
9%7
41
24
100%
0%0%
Cou
ntry
side
/ M
emor
ial S
paul
din g
661.
5%1
41
100%
0%0%
Hor
ace
Man
n / C
abo t
454.
4%2
22
0%10
0%0%
Hor
ace
Man
n/Li
ncol
n-E
liot
176
0.6%
14
10%
100%
0%M
ason
-Ric
e / W
ard
277
1U
nder
woo
d/W
ard
762
Will
iam
s/P
eirc
e24
61.
2%3
32
167
%33
%0%
To
tal
25,9
160.
7 %17
619
92
2826
3634
412
1613
572
%28
%0%
Last
Yea
r's P
rope
rty
Mix
199
227
2745
386
1912
1310
Diff
eren
ce-2
30
1-1
-9-4
-2-7
40
-5%
Diff
eren
ce-1
2%0%
4%-4
%-2
0%-1
1%-3
3%-3
7%33
%0%
-50%
% B
Y T
YP
E
Not
e: T
his
data
cam
e fr
om M
LS L
istin
gs o
f res
iden
tial p
rope
rtie
s fo
r sa
le in
New
ton,
Ma.
as
of N
ovem
ber
2017
and
is s
ubje
ct to
cha
nge
on a
dai
ly b
asis
. O
nly
listin
gs c
lass
ified
as
"act
ive"
are
incl
uded
. T
here
may
be
othe
r pr
oper
ties
for
sale
in N
ewto
n th
at a
re n
ot c
onta
ined
on
this
list
ing
serv
ice.
The
num
ber
of ta
xabl
e pr
oper
ties
is u
pdat
ed a
s of
Nov
201
4.
- 108 -
NESDEC's Projections vs Newton's Projections
Grades K through 12
LevelFY19
2018-19FY20
2019-20FY21
2020-21FY22
2021-22FY23
2022-23Elementary 5,816 5,740 5,673 5,657 5,627Middle 2,852 2,910 3,009 3,011 2,992High School 4,026 4,064 4,057 4,095 4,118Special Education 86 86 86 86 86Total 12,780 12,800 12,825 12,849 12,823
LevelFY19
2018-19FY20
2019-20FY21
2020-21FY22
2021-22FY23
2022-23Elementary 5,837 5,800 5,724 5,747 5,738Middle 2,852 2,900 3,000 2,993 2,979High School 4,025 4,078 4,083 4,128 4,152Special Education 86 86 86 86 86Total 12,800 12,864 12,893 12,954 12,955
LevelFY19
2018-19FY20
2019-20FY21
2020-21FY22
2021-22FY23
2022-23Elementary -21 -60 -51 -90 -111Middle 0 10 9 18 13High School 1 -14 -26 -33 -34Special Education 0 0 0 0 0Total -20 -64 -68 -105 -132
LevelFY19
2018-19FY20
2019-20FY21
2020-21FY22
2021-22FY23
2022-23Kindergarten 885 875 886 880 883
LevelFY19
2018-19FY20
2019-20FY21
2020-21FY22
2021-22FY23
2022-23Kindergarten 890 883 859 886 887
LevelFY19
2018-19FY20
2019-20FY21
2020-21FY22
2021-22FY23
2022-23Kindergarten -5 -8 27 -6 -4
*Note: All non-resident students have been added to NESDEC's projections.
Newton's Projections
NESDEC's Projections*
Difference
APPENDIX D
TABLE 11
Newton's Projections
NESDEC's Projections*
Difference
Kindergarten Only
- 109 -
AP
PE
ND
IX E
TA
BL
E 1
2E
lem
enta
ry S
tud
ents
by
Dis
tric
t w
ith
Bu
ffer
Zo
nes
Oct
ob
er 2
017
Ele
men
tary
Dis
tric
tS
choo
l Atte
ndin
gK
12
34
5T
otal
Tot
al S
tude
nts
in
Dis
tric
t inc
ludi
ng
Out
-of-
Ass
igne
d D
istr
ict S
tude
nts
2017
-18
% o
f D
istr
ict
2017
-18
% o
f Tot
al
Stu
dent
s
2016
-17
Num
ber
of
Stu
dent
s
2015
-16
Num
ber
of
Stu
dent
s
Bu
ffer
Zo
nes
AN
GIE
R-W
ILLI
AM
SA
ngie
r1
10
01
03
12%
0%2
1(S
tude
nt A
ssig
nmen
t Cha
nge
2015
-16)
Will
iam
s2
25
38
323
88%
0%27
26(Z
one
Bou
ndar
y C
hang
e)S
ubto
tal
33
53
93
2626
100%
0%29
27
AN
GIE
R-Z
ER
VA
SA
ngie
r1
66
71
728
72%
1%31
28(S
tude
nt A
ssig
nmen
t Cha
nge
2015
-16)
Zer
vas
03
23
12
1128
%0%
91
(New
Zon
e)S
ubto
tal
19
810
29
3964
100%
1%40
29
BO
WE
N-C
OU
NT
RY
SID
EB
owen
11
06
56
1940
%0%
1918
(Exp
ande
d in
201
1-12
)C
ount
rysi
de5
26
64
629
60%
1%38
45S
ubto
tal
63
612
912
4851
100%
1%57
63
BO
WE
N-M
AS
ON
-RIC
EB
owen
87
87
149
5340
%1%
3840
(Stu
dent
Ass
ignm
ent C
hang
e 20
16-1
7)M
ason
-Ric
e10
1114
1714
1278
60%
1%11
8(Z
one
Bou
ndar
y C
hang
e)S
ubto
tal
1818
2224
2821
131
131
100%
2%49
48
BO
WE
N-M
EM
OR
IAL-
SP
AU
LDIN
GB
owen
35
95
145
4155
%1%
4855
(Exp
ande
d in
201
6-17
)M
emor
ial-S
paul
ding
86
63
83
3445
%1%
65
Sub
tota
l11
1115
822
875
7910
0%1%
5460
BO
WE
N-W
AR
DB
owen
03
52
62
1882
%0%
2121
(New
in 2
014-
15)
War
d2
10
01
04
18%
0%3
2S
ubto
tal
24
52
72
2223
100%
0%24
23
BU
RR
-FR
AN
KLI
NB
urr
84
83
34
3024
%1%
2520
(Exp
ande
d in
201
6-17
)F
rank
lin13
1815
2220
997
76%
2%19
24S
ubto
tal
2122
2325
2313
127
133
100%
2%44
44
CA
BO
T-H
OR
AC
E M
AN
NC
abot
21
20
00
526
%0%
32
(Stu
dent
Ass
ignm
ent C
hang
e 20
15-1
6)H
orac
e M
ann
20
11
46
1474
%0%
1418
(New
Zon
e)S
ubto
tal
41
31
46
1919
100%
0%17
20
CO
UN
TR
YS
IDE
-ME
MO
RIA
L-S
PA
ULD
ING
Cou
ntry
side
11
00
00
210
%0%
10
Mem
oria
l-Spa
uldi
ng6
17
12
219
90%
0%27
3S
ubto
tal
72
71
22
2123
100%
0%28
3
CO
UN
TR
YS
IDE
-ZE
RV
AS
Cou
ntry
side
55
55
43
2752
%0%
2931
(Stu
dent
Ass
ignm
ent C
hang
e 20
15-1
6)Z
erva
s5
52
34
625
48%
0%9
1(Z
one
Bou
ndar
y C
hang
e)S
ubto
tal
1010
78
89
5257
100%
1%38
32
FR
AN
KLI
N-H
OR
AC
E M
AN
NF
rank
lin11
2316
2010
2210
270
%2%
2119
(Exp
ande
d in
201
6-17
)H
orac
e M
ann
105
106
58
4430
%1%
3233
Sub
tota
l21
2826
2615
3014
615
210
0%3%
5352
- 110 -
AP
PE
ND
IX E
TA
BL
E 1
2E
lem
enta
ry S
tud
ents
by
Dis
tric
t w
ith
Bu
ffer
Zo
nes
Oct
ob
er 2
017
Ele
men
tary
Dis
tric
tS
choo
l Atte
ndin
gK
12
34
5T
otal
Tot
al S
tude
nts
in
Dis
tric
t inc
ludi
ng
Out
-of-
Ass
igne
d D
istr
ict S
tude
nts
2017
-18
% o
f D
istr
ict
2017
-18
% o
f Tot
al
Stu
dent
s
2016
-17
Num
ber
of
Stu
dent
s
2015
-16
Num
ber
of
Stu
dent
s
HO
RA
CE
MA
NN
-LIN
CO
LN-E
LIO
TH
orac
e M
ann
04
13
21
1135
%0%
1914
Linc
oln-
Elio
t3
55
14
220
65%
0%18
10S
ubto
tal
39
64
63
3133
100%
1%37
24
MA
SO
N-R
ICE
-WA
RD
Mas
on-R
ice
22
67
46
2761
%0%
3638
War
d2
22
45
217
39%
0%12
12S
ubto
tal
44
811
98
4448
100%
1%48
50
PE
IRC
E-W
ILLI
AM
SP
eirc
e11
138
1814
1074
80%
1%80
74W
illia
ms
02
56
23
1820
%0%
1923
Sub
tota
l11
1513
2416
1392
9610
0%2%
9997
UN
DE
RW
OO
D-W
AR
DU
nder
woo
d5
22
47
1030
65%
1%4
4(E
xpan
ded
in 2
016-
17)
War
d1
32
51
416
35%
0%0
0S
ubto
tal
65
49
814
4648
100%
1%4
4
To
tal B
uff
er Z
on
es12
814
415
816
816
815
391
998
310
0%17
%62
157
6
Reg
ula
r D
istr
icts
AN
GIE
RA
ngie
r55
7659
6157
4635
438
28%
6%31
029
2B
OW
EN
Bow
en50
4832
3141
4024
224
76%
4%22
023
8B
UR
RB
urr
4944
5461
6055
323
335
8%6%
332
335
CA
BO
TC
abo t
4754
5759
5268
337
355
8%6%
364
368
CO
UN
TR
YS
IDE
Cou
ntry
side
4250
4553
5251
293
329
7%5%
294
295
FR
AN
KLI
NF
rank
lin38
4029
4137
2921
422
75%
4%37
835
5H
OR
AC
E M
AN
NH
orac
e M
ann
3954
4949
5852
301
315
7%5%
310
301
LIN
CO
LN-E
LIO
TLi
ncol
n-E
liot
6057
4548
5849
317
346
8%6%
298
295
MA
SO
N-R
ICE
Mas
on-R
ice
4846
5651
5747
305
309
7%6%
344
319
ME
MO
RIA
L-S
PA
ULD
ING
Mem
oria
l-Spa
uldi
ng58
6160
7855
5837
038
49%
7%39
041
8P
EIR
CE
Pei
rce
2623
3035
2035
169
178
4%3%
180
201
UN
DE
RW
OO
DU
nder
woo
d27
4332
5433
3222
123
85%
4%26
827
7W
AR
DW
ard
3045
4443
4550
257
267
6%5%
271
259
WIL
LIA
MS
Will
iam
s40
3845
2533
3121
223
65%
4%20
319
3Z
ER
VA
SZ
erva
s45
6250
5352
4630
841
27%
6%27
226
1T
ota
l Reg
ula
r D
istr
icts
654
741
687
742
710
689
4,22
34,
560
100%
76%
4,43
44,
407
Ou
t-o
f-A
ssig
ned
Dis
tric
t S
tud
ent s
3444
5977
9493
401
7%48
051
9
To
tal S
tud
ents
816
929
904
987
972
935
5,54
35,
543
100%
5,53
55,
502
NO
TE
S:
1.)
The
figu
res
in th
is ta
ble
are
base
d on
pre
limin
ary
enro
llmen
ts a
nd a
re d
eriv
ed fr
om r
esid
ent s
tude
nts
only
.2.
) T
he fi
gure
s in
this
tabl
e do
not
incl
ude
stud
ents
atte
ndin
g pr
ivat
e sc
hool
s.
- 111 -
Sch
ool:
Fee
ds In
to:
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
Linc
oln-
Elio
tB
igel
ow37
438
037
438
138
538
1U
nder
woo
dB
igel
ow28
428
027
826
326
726
7W
ard
Big
elow
309
299
291
286
285
280
Bur
rD
ay38
638
235
934
333
033
6C
abot
Day
391
381
381
392
397
405
Fra
nklin
Day
434
443
439
430
439
429
Hor
ace
Man
nD
ay40
440
139
239
538
738
3P
eirc
eD
ay27
626
927
225
625
825
9
Ang
ier
Bro
wn
467
480
490
489
488
470
Cou
ntry
side
Bro
wn
410
411
405
394
384
383
Mas
on-R
ice
Bro
wn
102
9994
8783
8441
039
837
835
033
433
4W
illia
ms
Bro
wn
296
285
293
299
290
295
Bow
enO
ak H
ill42
141
036
937
437
637
2M
emor
ial-S
paul
ding
Oak
Hill
453
466
471
461
459
463
Zer
vas
Oak
Hill
407
432
454
473
495
486
To
tal E
lem
enta
ry2,
960
2,93
42,
880
2,83
32,
831
2,82
42,
864
2,88
22,
860
2,84
02,
826
2,80
3
Big
elow
Nor
th52
151
652
755
453
553
8D
ayN
orth
980
978
992
975
964
948
Bro
wn
Nor
th (
13%
); S
outh
(87
%)
9895
9810
610
911
065
563
865
970
973
373
3O
ak H
illS
outh
614
625
634
665
670
663
To
tal M
idd
le S
cho
ol
1,59
91,
589
1,61
71,
635
1,60
81,
596
1,26
91,
263
1,29
31,
374
1,40
31,
396
New
ton
Nor
th2,
165
2,17
02,
154
2,20
02,
235
2,23
5N
ewto
n S
outh
1,89
31,
942
1,99
61,
943
1,94
61,
969
To
tal A
ll G
rad
e L
evel
s6,
724
6,69
36,
651
6,66
86,
674
6,65
56,
026
6,08
76,
149
6,15
76,
175
6,16
8C
hang
e fr
om P
rior
Yea
r-3
1-4
217
6-1
961
628
18-7
% C
hang
e-0
.5%
-0.6
%0.
3%0.
1%-0
.3%
1.0%
1.0%
0.1%
0.3%
-0.1
%
Dif
fere
nce
bet
wee
n N
ort
h a
nd
So
uth
272
228
158
257
289
266
New
ton
So
uth
Fee
din
g S
cho
ols
New
ton
No
rth
Fee
din
g S
cho
ols
AP
PE
ND
IX E
TA
BL
E 1
3
To
tal E
nro
llmen
t b
y H
igh
Sch
oo
l Fee
der
Pat
tern
s
- 112 -
Appendix E – Exhibit 14 (Map 1 of 3)
- 113 -
Appendix E – Exhibit 14 (Map 2 of 3)
- 114 -
Appendix E – Exhibit 14 (Map 3 of 3)
- 115 -
Resulting School Age
Children
Resulting School Age
Children
Resulting School Age
Children
Units % # # #
Studios 0% 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 01 BR Market 29 33% 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 01 BR Affordable 5 6% 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 02 BR Market 46 52% 0.192 9 0.193 9 0.258 122 BR Affordable 8 9% 0.914 7 0.922 7 1.219 103 BR Market 0 0% 0.740 0 0.731 0 0.929 03 BR Affordable 0 0% 2.579 0 2.548 0 3.250 0Total 88 16 16 22
Average of Ratios
Resulting School Age
Children
Resulting School Age
Children
Resulting School Age
Children
Units % # # #
Studios 0% 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 01 BR Market 3 3% 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 01 BR Affordable 1 1% 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 02 BR Market 23 26% 0.192 4 0.193 4 0.258 62 BR Affordable 6 7% 0.914 5 0.922 6 1.219 73 BR Market 2 2% 0.740 1 0.731 1 0.929 23 BR Affordable 1 1% 2.579 3 2.548 3 3.250 3Total 36 14 14 18
Average of Ratios
Resulting School Age
Children
Resulting School Age
Children
Resulting School Age
Children
Units % # # #
Studios 0% 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 01 BR Market 22 25% 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 01 BR Affordable 7 8% 0.000 0 0.000 0 0.000 02 BR Market 29 33% 0.192 6 0.193 6 0.258 72 BR Affordable 10 11% 0.914 9 0.922 9 1.219 123 BR Market 0% 0.740 0 0.731 0 0.929 03 BR Affordable 0% 2.579 0 2.548 0 3.250 0Total 68 15 15 20
Average of RatiosNotes:1) Ratio 1 ‐ Avalon Newton Highlands; Ratio 2 ‐ Avalon at Chestnut Hill; Ratio 3 ‐ Arborpoint at Woodland Station
3) 48% of students are enrolled at the elementary grade level and 52% are enrolled at the secondary grade level.
Enrollment Scenarios
Ratio 1 Ratio 2 Ratio 3
15
2) All school children with physical addresses at the above developments are included in the ratio calculations. The assignment of
school children to different unit types (e.g., 2BR or 3BR units) is based on industry estimates.
4) An average of 14% of school age children attend private school.
AUSTIN STREET
Ratio 3
COURT STREET
18
Proposed Unit Types
Ratio 1 Ratio 2 Ratio 3
Enrollment Scenarios
16
Proposed Unit Types
APPENDIX FTABLE 15
KESSLER WOODS
SCENARIOS FOR ENROLLMENT IN NEWTON PUBLIC SCHOOLS
Proposed Unit Types
Ratio 1 Ratio 2
Enrollment Scenarios
- 116 -
