ENSO: Its impacts in the glaciers and

ocean temperatures

Eighth Grade Math Academic Night

April 24th, 2015

By: María Paula Alarcón, María Paz Merino, and Antonia Pérez

Did you know that in 48

years 22% of the Antisana´s Glacier 15

has been lost?

Background Information

• ENSO or El Niño Southern Oscillation is a natural phenomenom of changing ocean temperatures (cold and warm) in the surface of the Pacific Ocean, which causes climatic changes all around the world.

• El Niño brings warm water, La Niña brings cold water. • El Niño reaches the eastern coast around Christmas eve.• Normally, strong winds blow across the Pacific from the

southeast. During an El Niño, they barely do.

Background Information

• This is a problem since fisherman can’t find fish because fish look for colder waters that are under the surface.

• It causes natural disasters like floods, wildfires, tornadoes, heat waves, and worst of all: glacial retreats in the Ecuadorian Andes.

• The ocean temperatures affect the atmosphere and then the atmosphere affects the glaciers.

• Antisana Volcano has the most tracked glaciar (Glaciar 15) in the Ecuadorian Andes.

• 22% of the glacier has disappeared in less than 50 years.

• During the 1990´s the abliation rates were high in Glacier 15. They were higher during El Niño.

OUR LAB • Research Question: How does ENSO impact the ocean

temperatures? Does this affect the glaciers in the Ecuadorian Andes?

• We took the daily temperatures for 7 months of the Central 1 region of Galápagos.

• Next, we averaged the temperatures of every month.

• We did a scatter plot for the averaged temperatures.

• We added a best fit line for the coordinates on the graph.

• We found the slope, y-intercept, and equation of the best fit line.

• Moni gave us data for the past 5 years of the Southern region of Galápagos to see a pattern.

• We also included a scatter plot and equation of the data from 5 years

• We recieved data for Antisana glacier 15 retreat (2000-2004)

• We made a scatter plot and equation for this data.

Data Collected

Average Sea Surface Temperature for the

Galápagos Central 1 Islands 2014-5

Month # of Month Avg TempSeptember 1 22

October 2 23.2November 3 23.59December 4 23.88

January 5 24.53February 6 25.8

March 7 27.35 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 722

22.523

23.524

24.525

25.526

26.527

27.528

Average Sea Surface Temperature for the Galá-pagos Central 1 Islands 2014-5

Month (starting with September 2014)

Avg

Tem

p (C

°)

Calculations

Equation= y=0.75x +21.25

y is the dependent variable (average temp)0.75 is the slopex is the independent variable (# of month)21.25 is the y-intercept

SOUTHERN ISLANDS FOR 5 YEARS

Average Sea Surface Temperature (SST) for the Galápagos Southern Islands 2010-

2014

Year # of Year Avg Temp (C°)

2010 0 21.5

2011 1 22.76

2012 2 23.17

2013 3 22.71

2014 4 23.89

Equation= y = 0.473x + 21.86

Dependent variable (Avg Temp (C°))

SlopeIndependent variable (# of year)

Y-intercept

0 1 2 3 4 520.00

22.00

24.00

26.00

f(x) = 0.473 x + 21.86

Average Sea Surface Tem-peratures (SST) for the

Galápagos Southern Islands 2010-2014

Year (Starting with 2010)Ave

rage S

ST

(C

°)

ANTISANA’S GLACIER RETREAT

Antisana´s Glacier 15 Retreat

Year # of Year Area (M2)

2000 1 365,464

2001 2 346,139

2002 3 322,614

2003 4 308,616

2004 5 300,207

Equation= y = -16804x + 362215

Dependent variable Independent variable

Slope

Y-intercept

0 1 2 3 4 50

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

f(x) = − 16803.7 x + 362215.4

Antisana´s Glacier 15 Retreat

Year (starting with 2000)A

rea (

m2)

CONCLUSION• There is a linear relationship between ENSO and the

temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

• There is a linear relationship between ENSO and the glacier retreat in the Ecuadorian Andes.

• The ocean temperatures affect the atmosphere and then the atmosphere affects the glaciers.

• As years have gone by, the ocean temperatures have increased and the glacier´s have reduced.

• In 5 years the temperature in the ocean increased by 2 C°.

• The positive slope in the ocean temperatures shows how the tempertaures have increased and the negative slope in the glaciers shows how the area has decreased.

Conclusion 2

• In 6 more years the temperature will be 27.063 C° y=0.473 (11) + 21.86

Y=5.203+21.86

Y=27.063 C°

• In 6 more years the area would 9331, 135 m2

y= -16,804(21)+ 362215

Y=9331 m2

Suggestions (Prevention)

• The teleconnections help forecast droughts, floods, tropical storms, and hurricanes. People should be informed.

• Based on what scientists know about ENSO patterns, they are predicting wet, dry, warm, or cold conditions for different regions at different times.

• Emergency plans in case of natural disasters (floods, fires thunderstorms, huirracanes and others).

• The Ministerio de Agricultura, Pesca y Ganadería in Paraguay published a article telling farmers what to stop doing in order to decrease erosion cause by ENSO and try to inform fishers when ENSO is supposed to take place.

Sources-National Climatic Data Center. 2000. Climate 1998 annual review: Annual U.S. national overview. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration retrieved from (NOAA) website. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ol/climate/research/1998/ann/ us_annual.html

-Wilford, J. N. 2000. North Pole visitors find no ice. New York Times, August 19: 4A.

-Caceres, B. (2002, June 10). EL GLACIAR 15 DEL ANTISANA. DIEZ AÑOS DE INVESTIGACIONES GALCIOLOGICAS. Retrieved March 19, 2015, from http://mri.scnatweb.ch/en/content/publications/non-mri-publications/1588-el-glaciar-15-del-antisana-diez-anos-de-investigaciones-glaciologicas-1/file

- Other information was given by Moni.