ENSO: Its impacts in the glaciers and
ocean temperatures
Eighth Grade Math Academic Night
April 24th, 2015
By: María Paula Alarcón, María Paz Merino, and Antonia Pérez
Did you know that in 48
years 22% of the Antisana´s Glacier 15
has been lost?
Background Information
• ENSO or El Niño Southern Oscillation is a natural phenomenom of changing ocean temperatures (cold and warm) in the surface of the Pacific Ocean, which causes climatic changes all around the world.
• El Niño brings warm water, La Niña brings cold water. • El Niño reaches the eastern coast around Christmas eve.• Normally, strong winds blow across the Pacific from the
southeast. During an El Niño, they barely do.
Background Information
• This is a problem since fisherman can’t find fish because fish look for colder waters that are under the surface.
• It causes natural disasters like floods, wildfires, tornadoes, heat waves, and worst of all: glacial retreats in the Ecuadorian Andes.
• The ocean temperatures affect the atmosphere and then the atmosphere affects the glaciers.
• Antisana Volcano has the most tracked glaciar (Glaciar 15) in the Ecuadorian Andes.
• 22% of the glacier has disappeared in less than 50 years.
• During the 1990´s the abliation rates were high in Glacier 15. They were higher during El Niño.
OUR LAB • Research Question: How does ENSO impact the ocean
temperatures? Does this affect the glaciers in the Ecuadorian Andes?
• We took the daily temperatures for 7 months of the Central 1 region of Galápagos.
• Next, we averaged the temperatures of every month.
• We did a scatter plot for the averaged temperatures.
• We added a best fit line for the coordinates on the graph.
• We found the slope, y-intercept, and equation of the best fit line.
• Moni gave us data for the past 5 years of the Southern region of Galápagos to see a pattern.
• We also included a scatter plot and equation of the data from 5 years
• We recieved data for Antisana glacier 15 retreat (2000-2004)
• We made a scatter plot and equation for this data.
Data Collected
Average Sea Surface Temperature for the
Galápagos Central 1 Islands 2014-5
Month # of Month Avg TempSeptember 1 22
October 2 23.2November 3 23.59December 4 23.88
January 5 24.53February 6 25.8
March 7 27.35 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 722
22.523
23.524
24.525
25.526
26.527
27.528
Average Sea Surface Temperature for the Galá-pagos Central 1 Islands 2014-5
Month (starting with September 2014)
Avg
Tem
p (C
°)
Calculations
Equation= y=0.75x +21.25
y is the dependent variable (average temp)0.75 is the slopex is the independent variable (# of month)21.25 is the y-intercept
SOUTHERN ISLANDS FOR 5 YEARS
Average Sea Surface Temperature (SST) for the Galápagos Southern Islands 2010-
2014
Year # of Year Avg Temp (C°)
2010 0 21.5
2011 1 22.76
2012 2 23.17
2013 3 22.71
2014 4 23.89
Equation= y = 0.473x + 21.86
Dependent variable (Avg Temp (C°))
SlopeIndependent variable (# of year)
Y-intercept
0 1 2 3 4 520.00
22.00
24.00
26.00
f(x) = 0.473 x + 21.86
Average Sea Surface Tem-peratures (SST) for the
Galápagos Southern Islands 2010-2014
Year (Starting with 2010)Ave
rage S
ST
(C
°)
ANTISANA’S GLACIER RETREAT
Antisana´s Glacier 15 Retreat
Year # of Year Area (M2)
2000 1 365,464
2001 2 346,139
2002 3 322,614
2003 4 308,616
2004 5 300,207
Equation= y = -16804x + 362215
Dependent variable Independent variable
Slope
Y-intercept
0 1 2 3 4 50
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
f(x) = − 16803.7 x + 362215.4
Antisana´s Glacier 15 Retreat
Year (starting with 2000)A
rea (
m2)
CONCLUSION• There is a linear relationship between ENSO and the
temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.
• There is a linear relationship between ENSO and the glacier retreat in the Ecuadorian Andes.
• The ocean temperatures affect the atmosphere and then the atmosphere affects the glaciers.
• As years have gone by, the ocean temperatures have increased and the glacier´s have reduced.
• In 5 years the temperature in the ocean increased by 2 C°.
• The positive slope in the ocean temperatures shows how the tempertaures have increased and the negative slope in the glaciers shows how the area has decreased.
Conclusion 2
• In 6 more years the temperature will be 27.063 C° y=0.473 (11) + 21.86
Y=5.203+21.86
Y=27.063 C°
• In 6 more years the area would 9331, 135 m2
y= -16,804(21)+ 362215
Y=9331 m2
Suggestions (Prevention)
• The teleconnections help forecast droughts, floods, tropical storms, and hurricanes. People should be informed.
• Based on what scientists know about ENSO patterns, they are predicting wet, dry, warm, or cold conditions for different regions at different times.
• Emergency plans in case of natural disasters (floods, fires thunderstorms, huirracanes and others).
• The Ministerio de Agricultura, Pesca y Ganadería in Paraguay published a article telling farmers what to stop doing in order to decrease erosion cause by ENSO and try to inform fishers when ENSO is supposed to take place.
Sources-National Climatic Data Center. 2000. Climate 1998 annual review: Annual U.S. national overview. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration retrieved from (NOAA) website. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ol/climate/research/1998/ann/ us_annual.html
-Wilford, J. N. 2000. North Pole visitors find no ice. New York Times, August 19: 4A.
-Caceres, B. (2002, June 10). EL GLACIAR 15 DEL ANTISANA. DIEZ AÑOS DE INVESTIGACIONES GALCIOLOGICAS. Retrieved March 19, 2015, from http://mri.scnatweb.ch/en/content/publications/non-mri-publications/1588-el-glaciar-15-del-antisana-diez-anos-de-investigaciones-glaciologicas-1/file
- Other information was given by Moni.