1

Environmental Scan for Craven Community College

2

Table of Contents

Introduction ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 1

Methodology--------------------------------------------------------------------- 1

Global Trends ------------------------------------------------------------------- 5

National Trends -------------------------------------------------------------- 13

Regional Trends -------------------------------------------------------------- 27

State Trends------------------------------------------------------------------ 366

Craven County Trends ---------------------------------------------------- 477

Implications and Recommendations --------------------------------- 5959

3

1

Introduction

This environmental scan was developed to offer insights into strategic

opportunities and challenges facing Craven Community College, and to identify major

trends that may impact the College’s enrollment in the future. In this environmental scan

report, we examine these trends based on available data beginning from a global

viewpoint and then narrow the focus across the national, regional, state and local

arenas until we are able to identify the trends of greatest significance at the institutional

level. From this trend analysis, we identify implications for Craven Community College

along with specific recommendations where appropriate.

Methodology

The environmental scan process involves systematic analysis of contextual

factors in order to provide intelligence that can inform institutional strategic planning and

decision making in areas such as enrollment management and program development.

Scanning and analyzing external variables, we identify trends and provide implications

and recommendations that are relevant to higher education.

While the Craven Community College environmental scan is limited to an

analysis of the external environment, the process offers the College the opportunity to

bring into alignment their internal performance, capacity conditions, culture, and

aspirations with changing conditions in the external environment. The information

provided here should be used to initiate and supplement a more in-depth review of

Craven Community College’s internal competencies and resource capacities, as well as

the needs and expectations of its students and other clients.

2

Environmental Scan Framework

The environmental scan framework depicted above is used in this report. In the

environmental scan process, we analyze demographic, economic, social, and

technological trends, making links between this information and the institutional context,

and then we report the major trends and implications at several levels as shown in the

following table.

Institutional Interpretation

Strategic Marketing

Implementation and

Development

Internal Analysis: • Vision and

Mission • SWOT Analysis

External Analysis: • Scanning • Analysis • Monitoring

Events

Trends

Implications

Environmental Scan: • Institutional Context • Trends and Implications:

o Demographic o Economic o Social o Technological

• Institutional Implications & Recommendations

Leads to

Guides

3

Environmental Scan -- Trends and Implications

Categories Trends Implications Demographic • Population growth

• Population composition (gender, ethnicity, age ,etc)

• Population mobility (including migration patterns)

• Recruitment targets • Enrollment planning

Economic • Labor force • Job market • Industry focus • Knowledge economy • Funding sources for higher

education

• Program development • Marketing strategies • Financial aid allocation

Social • Social expectations • Ideology shifts • Policy and political changes • Educational values and

expectations

• Recruitment strategies • Marketing strategies

Technological • Emerging technology use • Applications in higher education • Issues and concerns

• Program development • Technology infrastructure

development • Recruitment planning

After the analysis of each trend, sources of the information are also provided.

The lists of sources may be of use to stakeholders as they further explore and monitor

these trends. In the final section, implications are identified and recommendations are

offered. We also raise several questions that the College may want to consider while

developing a strategic marketing plan.

While we make the effort to link the trends and implications to Craven

Community College’s specific situation, it is important to note that the information

contained in this report cannot result in concrete strategic plans for the College without

the interpretation of this analysis by relevant stakeholders. Therefore, in the Implications

and Recommendations section, we offer ideas that may be the basis of bringing

4

stakeholders together to discuss the information presented in this report in an effort to

make informed strategic marketing decisions.

Here are several broad themes that emerged through the analysis:

• The military presence in the Craven County area is a significant contributor to local economic and demographic growth and viability. Craven Community College strength depends on leveraging its association with local military bases. Some of the school’s programs that are linked to serving the needs of the local military, such as the Institute of Aeronautical Technology, may even be leveraged to attract students from the Craven Community College service area.

• The interplay of technology and immigration has made the notion of “globalization” much more concrete in the last few years. This holds significant implications for Craven Community College.

• Students will come to Craven Community College from a wide range of backgrounds. Home schooled students, displaced workers, first- and second-generation immigrant students, students from military households, and “swirling” students are growing student populations that the College currently has the opportunity to recruit and serve. However, Craven Community College has to prepare and train staff and faculty to respond to the distinctive needs of these students.

The “Implications and Recommendations” section that concludes the report offers a

detailed discussion of each of these themes, and offers a number of recommendations

that should be considered in developing a strategic marketing plan.

5

Global Trends

Global trends have local impact. A global sea change is underway bringing major

shifts in demographics, economics, migration patterns, policymaking, and a number of

areas that will have profound impact for higher education. While most higher education

institutions may perceive themselves as serving specific niches in the postsecondary

marketplace, it is essential that the leadership at each institution respond strategically to

these changes in order to prepare graduates for participation in the global economy,

and to develop marketing plans that will keep their institutions viable and vibrant.

Demographic Trends

• During the past 50 years, the world's population has increased dramatically—a trend that is projected to continue. The United Nations’ latest projection is that the world population in 2050 will be just over 9.1 billion.

• Most future population growth will occur in less developed countries. However, there is a projected population growth in northern Europe and North America. According to United Nations projections, by 2050 it is possible that nearly as many babies will be born in the United States as in China.

• However, population growth will tend to level out by 2050, the result of smaller families worldwide. The United Nations projects a drop in the average birthrate of 2.6 children per woman in 2005 to 2.05 by 2050. These declining birth rates, combined with increases in life expectancy, are already leading to an older world population, especially in more industrialized countries.

• As countries develop, people tend to move from rural to urban areas. The world's urban population has maintained a growth of 1.8 percent a year since 2000, and will likely continue this trend into 2030. The number of urban dwellers will rise from 3 billion in 2005 to 5 billion in 2030. This rate is almost twice as fast as global population growth. In fact, starting in 2007, the majority of the global population has lived in urban areas.

• People are also continuing to move from less industrialized to more industrialized countries, with North American and Western Europe gaining 2.6 million immigrants annually during 1990–2000. About half of that flow was to North America. Asia was by far the largest source of immigrants (1.5 million a year), followed by Latin America and the Caribbean (0.8 million a year) and Africa (0.3 million a year).

6

• The largest bilateral flow of migrants anywhere in the world today is from Mexico to the United States; at least 10 percent of the 120 million people born in Mexico have moved to the US.

• Women represent a large proportion of international migrants. In fact, out of 118 million migrants, an estimated 56 million are women.

Economic Trends

• The current more-developed countries have a fifth of the world’s people and almost four-fifths of the world’s GDP. Their average per capita income was almost five times the average of low-income countries.

• The major labor force trend at the global level is the gradual rise in the economically active share of the total population – that is, the percentage of the world’s population that is actively employed. This percentage has gone from 43 percent in 1980 to 47 percent in 2005, and will likely reach 48 percent in the next few years. If the economically active share of the global population remains at 48 percent between 2020 and 2050, the world’s labor force will increase from about 3 billion in 2005 to 4.4 billion in 2050.

• The International Labor Organization estimates that internationally the labor force participation rates will increase particularly for the 25 to 55 age cohort. By 2020, 90 percent or more of men in this age category will be in the labor force. Women in this cohort will also be in the labor force at an all-time high, but will be slightly lower than males because of parenting duties.

• The economic differences that encourage international migration have two dimensions, one fostered by inequality between countries and the other by inequality within countries. The world’s almost 200 nation states have per capita incomes that range from less than $250 per person per year to more than $50,000, a difference that provides a significant incentive for young people to migrate for higher wages and more opportunities.

• Most governments redistribute incomes from working-age residents to the young and old. Hence, population aging can be expected to shift government priorities from education toward health, especially if older voters want governments to make such a shift in priorities. Many countries also provide income support to the elderly from the contributions of currently employed workers, and population aging strains the finances of such pay-as-you-go pension or social security systems.

• The recession that began in the United States in December 2007, set off by the end of a credit-fueled economic boom linked to rising home prices, soon became the first global recession in a quarter century. This recession led to higher unemployment rates globally. Internationally, job losses during the 2008-2010 period have been concentrated in four major sectors – construction, financial services, manufacturing, and travel-related services.

7

• The future reach of economic globalization will become more extensive than ever before, affecting industries and workforce segments relatively insulated from competition in the past. The significance of this trend has already been illustrated through the global impact of the 2007-2010 recession.

• Western companies have already learned that it makes economic sense to move industrial jobs offshore. Over the past 20 years, many manufacturing processes have been moved to Asia and South America. Today, many companies are beginning to move their research and development work to markets with lower labor costs and highly educated populations.

• Using baccalaureate degree attainment as the benchmark, the National Center for Higher Education Management Systems Report found that young Americans are much less well-educated than their counterparts in many other nations. If this situation is allowed to continue for another decade, the American workforce will cease to be globally competitive.

• Women now comprise an increasing share of the world's labor force – at least one-third in all regions except in Northern Africa and Western Asia.

• Self-employment and part-time and home-based work have expanded opportunities for women's participation in the labor force but are characterized by lack of security, lack of benefits and low income.

• More women than ever before are in the labor force throughout their reproductive years, though obstacles to combining family responsibilities with employment persist.

• The wealthiest households have substantially increased their wealth, while solvency has moved further out of reach for the poorest households. Workers migrating from developing countries to fill labor shortages in developed countries often find themselves impoverished and alienated rather than enjoying a higher standard of living. The growing numbers of people approaching old age unprepared for retirement will create friction in the workforce and test governments’ ability to fulfill commitments to entitlement programs.

Social Trends

• A recent report from the United States National Intelligence Council of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence states we are facing changes for which western society is likely not prepared. By the year 2025, “the accelerating pace of globalization and the emergence of new powers will produce ‘a world order’ vastly different from the system in place for most of the post-World War II era”, with financial and political power shifting from the western to the eastern hemisphere. In the near-term, there is increased probability of conflict over scarce resources, including food and water, and the persistence of rogue states and terrorist groups with greater access to nuclear weapons. Widening gaps in birth rates and wealth-to-poverty ratios between the developed and the

8

developing countries, along with the uneven impact of climate change, could further aggravate pressures.

• The worldwide and domestic reemergence of religion, especially in the public sphere, will continue, as will the political impact of religious fundamentalism and ethno-religious movements.

• Acts of violence and crime will increase as the result of the current economic crisis.

• The proliferation of weaponry and technology worldwide and the increase in ethnic and religiously inspired violence will result in a society increasingly vulnerable to terrorist attacks.

• Despite calls for gender equality, women are significantly under-represented in governments, political parties and at the United Nations.

• A trend already well-established in North American and Western Europe, women in much of Asia and Latin America are achieving higher levels of education than men. This trend is particularly significant in this human capital-intensive global economy.

• Women are generally marrying later and more women than men lack the basic literacy and computer skills needed to enter "new media" professions.

• Successful members of society will create innovative- and contextually-relevant applications for new knowledge.

• In higher education:

o The phenomenon of globalization compels students and schools to compete on a global scale.

o Student participation in higher education will continue to expand. o Women will form the majority of student populations in most developed

countries and their participation will increase everywhere. o The student population will become more varied, including more

international, older, and part-time students. o The figure of two million studying abroad in 2005 is expected to double by

2015 and double again by 2025. o The social base in higher education will continue to broaden. o Attitudes and policies relating to access will become more central to

national debates. o The academic profession will become more internationally-oriented and

more mobile but will remain structured according to national circumstances.

o Academic activities and roles will become more diversified and specialized, and subject to varied employment contracts.

9

o In developing countries, the need for more lecturers will mean that academic qualifications, already rather low, might not improve much and reliance on part-time staff will continue.

Technological Trends

• Advances in technology allow people to interact in new ways that were previously obscured by geographical, economic or social boundaries.

• In the technology sector, innovation is survival. Typically, by the time that higher education institutions have identified the significance of a technological trend, a new innovation has taken its place. Therefore, it is important for postsecondary institutions to prepare their students with the skills to adapt to a constantly changing technological environment.

• Even with the recent global economic downturn, innovation will continue to accelerate in the technology sector, especially over the next 15 years. In broad terms, occupational opportunities will continue to grow in the following overlapping trend areas: energy management, “Green” technologies, social networking, wireless HD (high definition) technologies, virtualization, cloud computing, business intelligence, increasing reliance on open source infrastructure products and technologies, software as a service, and Web 2.0.

• “Omnipresent computing” where a person will be in constant contact with very miniature, wireless, highly mobile, powerful, possibly wearable and highly personalized computing devices with network and Internet access will continue as a trend.

• Any proven, vigilant, and real-time upgradeable technology that safeguards people and their personal information, knowledge, systems, and nations will sell in the economic, political, and personal consumer marketplace.

• As the power and capability of technology grows, more questions will arise as to “how” and “when” to use technology in the pursuit of serving human needs and minimizing harmful effects. Some technology applications will trigger strong reactions over religious, environmental, or social concerns. Higher education institutions will need to prepare their students to face these ethical questions.

• E-terrorism has now proven to be a weapon of war and will continue to be used.

• Hacking, denial-of-service attacks, cyber-stealthing/stalking, information/identity theft, viruses, phishing, spam, electronic fraud, and other annoyances will continue to plague users even after legal and governmental interventions.

• Technologically lagging countries face challenges in institutional, human, and physical capacities. Advanced countries will stay ahead only if laws, public opinion, and other social factors do not become impediments.

10

• The top four issues for college/campus chief information/technology officers will be the implementation and oversight of their administrative/enterprise planning (ERP) systems, funding for IT, infrastructure management, and security and identity management.

• Online learning – both synchronous and asynchronous – is expanding and will continue to do so.

• Virtual colleges and universities also will continue to expand into the marketplace to meet the demand for flexible and readily available postsecondary education. Physical campuses will not go away because they provide a role in socialization and person-to-person learning and mentoring desired by many students.

• Information, the exchange of information, and innovations stemming from information will be increasingly important in the future. Browsers and search engines will become more elaborate and personalized, beginning to converge in functionality. Similarly, data mining, metadata, and data warehouse tasks and processes will become increasingly interconnected and personalizable.

• The “digital divide” (the gap between those who have access to the Internet and telecommunications technology and those who do not) is beginning to narrow but will likely remain for at least another generation, defined primarily between those who can afford it and those who cannot.

• The “usability divide” involving those who can and will use computers, telecommunications, and related technologies and those who cannot or will not, will continue to decline, likely disappearing within the next generation.

• Continuing advances in and applications of technology are creating a rising demand for skilled and certified workers in information technology and informatics. For IT professionals, the top emerging (and continuing) technologies in the next ten years will include: e-commerce, security, third and fourth generation wireless services, videoconferencing, video gaming and interactive entertainment, hardware/ middleware/software integration, wired and wireless networking (machine to machine and platform to platform, and device to device), nanotechnology, robotics, biotechnology, genomics, cogno-technology, biometrics, telematics, virtuality, alternative energy sources development, and health/home/personal space/homelife computerization and assistive technologies.

• Robotics and more powerful microprocessors will influence the speed and capabilities of next generation technology and afford new career opportunities.

• The field of bio-technology is of rapidly increasing importance as it focuses on advancing drugs to deal with three main health areas: cancer; central nervous system disorders, and cardiovascular diseases.

11

Data Sources:

• AC Nielsen (http://www.nielsen.com/)

• Bureau of Labor Statistics (http://www.bls.gov/)

• Bureau of the Census (http://www.census.gov/)

• Campus Progress (http://www.campusprogress.org/)

• Center for American Progress, Fast Track to College: Increasing Postsecondary Success for all Students. (http://www.americanprogress.org/)

• Central Intelligence Agency, Mapping the Global Future (http://www.foia.cia.gov/)

• College Board (http://www.collegeboard.com/)

• Durand, J. (2009). Processes of migration in Latin America and the Caribbean (1950-2008). Human Development Research Paper No. 24. New York: United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report Office.

• Education Futures (http://www.educationfutures.com/)

• Gang, I. (2009). Distributive impacts of migration in host countries: Background Research for the Human Development Report 2009. New York: United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report Office.

• Global Demographic Trends (2006). Finance and Development, 43(3).

• Harvard Education Letter (http://www.hepg.org/main/hel/Index.html)

• Herman Futurist Group (http://www.hermangroup.com/)

• Human Capital Institute (http://www.hci.org/)

• Institute of Education Sciences (http://ies.ed.gov/)

• Martin, P. (2009). Demographic and economic Trends: Implications for international mobility. Human Development Research Paper No. 17. New York: United Nations Development Programme, Human Development Report Office.

• National Bureau of Economic Research (http://www.nber.org/)

• National Center for Education Statistics (http://nces.ed.gov/)

• National Intelligence Council (http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_home.html)

• New York Times (www.nytimes.com)

• Newsweek (http://www.newsweek.com/)

12

• Quisic Insights and Research (http://www.quisic.com/)

• Rand National Security Research (2006). Global technology revolution 2020: Technology trends and cross-country variation.

• Society for College and University Planning, Trends to Watch in Higher Education (http://www.scup.org)

• Society for Human Resource Management (http://www.shrm.org/)

• Stratfor Decade Forecast to 2015 (http://www.stratfor.com/)

• The Christian Science Monitor (http://www.csmonitor.com/)

• The Economist (http://www.economist.com/)

• The Future of Work (http://www.thefutureofwork.net/)

• The RAND Corporation (http://www.rand.org/)

• The Wilson Quarterly (http://www.wilsonquarterly.com/)

• Trends Research Institute (http://www.trendsresearch.com/)

• United Nations (UN) (http://www.un.org/)

• University World News (http://www.universityworldnews.com)

• U.S. Congressional Budget Office (http://www.cbo.gov/)

• U.S. Department of Commerce (http://www.commerce.gov/)

• U.S. Department of Labor (http://www.dol.gov/)

• Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (http://www.wiche.edu/)

13

National Trends

Higher education in the United States is characterized by a great diversity in

institutional profiles, ranging from small colleges to immense research universities, and

from public to church-affiliated private to for-profit management models. Additionally, in

the United States, colleges and universities are relatively free from government control

compared to other nations – there is no national ministry of higher education and few

federal regulations. On the other hand, American higher education has a list of clients

that includes students of an enormously diverse array of backgrounds; federal, state,

and local governments; business and industry; and the public at large. This diversity is

the reason why such a unique model of higher education has been evolved – it offers a

“free market” for higher education that serves the needs of every potential client. A

challenge each institution faces is finding its position in this marketplace and connecting

to those students for whom they offer the best fit.

This section offers a comprehensive discussion of national trends that will impact

higher education.

14

Demographic Trends:

• According to the 2009 population estimate provided by the US Census Bureau, current US population is approximately 307,006,550:

July 1, 2009 307,006,550

July 1, 2008 304,374,846

July 1, 2007 301,579,895

July 1, 2006 298,593,212

July 1, 2005 295,753,151

July 1, 2004 293,045,739

July 1, 2003 290,326,418

July 1, 2002 287,803,914

July 1, 2001 285,081,556

July 1, 2000 282,171,957

April 1, 2000 (Estimates Base) 281,424,602

April 1, 2000 (Census 2000) 281,421,906

• Racial and ethnic minorities are driving the nation’s population growth and increasing diversity among its younger residents. Hispanics have accounted for roughly half the nation’s population growth since 2000. Already, racial and ethnic minorities represent 44 percent of U.S. residents under the age of 15, and make up a majority of that age group in 31 of the nation’s 100 largest metro areas (and a majority of the entire population in 15).

• The combined minority populations within the U.S. are expected to out-number non-Hispanic Whites before midcentury. One reason for this is that 82% of the growth in population between 2010 and 2050 is expected to come from immigrants and their direct descendants. The Latino population, already the nation’s largest minority group, will triple in size and will account for most of the nation’s population growth from 2010 through 2050. Hispanics will make up 29% of the U.S. population in 2050, compared with 14% in 2005.

15

• The next decade promises massive growth of the senior population, especially in suburbs unaccustomed to housing older people. As the first wave of baby boomers reaches age 65, the senior population is poised to grow by 36 percent from 2010 to 2020. Their numbers will grow fastest in the Intermountain West, the Southeast, and Texas, particularly in metro areas such as Raleigh, NC; Austin, TX; Atlanta, GA; and Boise, ID that already have large pre-senior populations (age 55 to 64).

• Americans are becoming increasingly likely to stay put. The Census Bureau's

Current Population Survey indicates that the number of people who moved between 2007 and 2008, 34 million, was the lowest since 1959-60, when the population of the U.S. was 41% smaller than it is now. The annual migration rate, which held at about 20% through the mid-1960s, has drifted downward since then to its current low of 11.9%. Analysts say the long-term decline in migration has occurred because the U.S. population is getting older and most moves are made when people are young. Another constraint on moving is the rise of two-career couples, because it is simply more difficult to coordinate a relocation when two jobs are involved. On top of these long-term trends, the current economic downturn has led to a further decline in migration, because jobs are typically one of the key magnets that induce people to move.

• On a related note, migration across states and metro areas has slowed considerably in the past two years due to the housing crisis and looming recession. About 4.7 million people moved across state lines in 2007-2008, down from a historic high of 8.4 million people at the turn of the decade. Meanwhile, out-migration has slowed in older regions such as Chicago and New York. Many Midwestern and Northeastern cities experienced greater annual population gains, or reduced population losses, in the past year.

• The sources and destinations of U.S. immigrants continue their long-run shifts. About 80 percent of the nation’s foreign-born population in 2007 hailed from Latin

16

America and Asia, up from just 20 percent in 1970. The Southeast, traditionally an area that immigrants avoided, has become the fastest-growing destination for the foreign-born, with metro areas such as Raleigh, NC; Nashville, TN; Atlanta, GA; and Orlando, FL ranking among those with the highest recent growth rates. As they arrived in these new destinations, immigrants also began to move away from traditional communities in the urban core. Today, more than half of the nation’s foreign-born residents live in major metropolitan suburbs, while one-third live in large cities.

• Amid rising educational attainment overall, the U.S. exhibits wide regional and racial/ethnic disparities. While 56 percent of Asian adults and 38 percent of White adults held post-secondary degrees in 2007, the same was true of only 25 percent of African Americans and 18 percent of Hispanics. These deep divides by race and ethnicity coincide with growing disparities across metropolitan areas owing to economic and demographic change. In knowledge-economy areas such as Boston, MA; Washington, D.C.; and San Francisco, CA, more than 40 percent of adults hold a bachelor’s degree. Meanwhile, in metro areas that have attracted large influxes of immigrants, such as Houston, TX; Greenville, NC; and most of California’s Central Valley, more than 20 percent of adults lack a high school diploma. Some Sun Belt metro areas, such as Las Vegas, NV, and Riverside, CA, have fast-growing populations at both ends of the attainment spectrum.

Economic Trends

• Even before the onset of the current recession, poverty rose during the 2000s, and spread rapidly to suburban locations. Both the overall number of people living in poverty and the poverty rate rose from 2000 to 2007; today, working-age Americans account for a larger share of the poor than in the last 30 years. After diverging in the 1970s and 1980s, the gap between inner-city and suburban poverty rates has narrowed somewhat. More notably, the suburban poor surpassed the inner-city poor in number during this decade, and now outnumber them by more than 1.5 million. The suburban poor have spread well beyond older, inner-ring suburbs, which in 2005-2007 housed less than 40 percent of all poor suburban dwellers. Yet even as poverty spreads throughout the metropolis, the concentration of poverty in highly distressed communities — after dropping in the 1990s — appears to be rising once again in the 2000s.

• The future of work and the US labor force will be guided by several factors: the rate of recovery from the recession, the growth of Green technology and infrastructure (roads, bridges, etc.) jobs, shifting demographic patterns, legislation regarding labor force issues such as NAFTA, the pace of technological change, and a quickening rate of economic globalization.

• The US labor force will continue to increase in size but a considerably slower rate than in the past.

17

• The composition and diversity of the workforce is paralleling the diversity and composition of demographics at the national level. This trend will not be shared amongst all industries and geographic locations.

• A declining ratio of working people to retirees will strain social services, pensions, and health systems.

• The trend in encouraging greater participation in the work force by historically underrepresented groups, and a reliance on migrant/visitor/temporary workers, will continue.

• Recent changes in Social Security, Medicare benefits and economic need will continue to result in older workers delaying retirement (“restylement”) and remaining in the workplace.

• While the current and future labor force will continue to require a mastery and application of basic skills, more emphasis will be placed on retraining and lifelong learning as the US workforce tries to stay innovative, productive, and competitive in the global marketplace and respond to technological changes.

• Employees will work in more decentralized, specialized firms/units and for shorter periods of service.

• While a number of nations are surpassing the United States in educational achievement, it is also true that national educational attainment is rising overall. An increasing percentage of Americans are able to pursue and complete a college degree. Consequentially, employers and consumers will have higher expectations of a worker’s skills, abilities, and aptitudes. Workers with greater amounts of education will continue to find more and better employment opportunities than those with less education.

• The labor force will increasingly continue to consist of three components: (a) a small “permanent” core of full-time, full benefits workers; (b) a growing contracted labor force of contingency workers (free agents through self-employment, independent contracting and temporary assignments); and (3) an increasing part-time workforce performing a variety of tasks and less attached to work as a location or an organization.

• The top ten occupations with the largest numerical job growth through 2012 will include: registered nurses, postsecondary teachers, retail salespersons, customer service reps, food prep and service workers, cashiers, janitors and cleaners, general and operations managers, waiters and waitresses, nursing aides, orderlies and attendants. Only two of these occupations require a bachelor’s degree or higher. Job requisites would include short-term or moderate on-the-job training and/or an associate’s degree or postsecondary vocational credential. Many of these jobs are also low wage jobs with irregular schedules. Institutions that can accommodate the schedule of individuals in these occupations will have significant recruitment opportunities.

18

• Of the 30 fastest growing occupations through 2012, 15 are health related, seven are computer related, three are for teachers, three are environment related, and the others are in care services and personal instruction. The top ten fastest growing occupations are medical assistants, network and data-com analysts, physician assistants, social and human services assistants, home health aides, medical records/info technicians, physical therapist aides, computer software engineers (applications and systems) and physical therapy assistants. In terms of education or training needed, over half of these occupations do not require a bachelor’s degree. Job requisites would include short-term or moderate on-the-job training and/or an Associate’s degree or postsecondary vocational award.

• Business is the number one college major for women and men, according to a recent AAUW (formerly known as the American Association of University Women) analysis of the Department of Education's "Condition of Education 2009" report. Business degrees now comprise 18% of all degrees awarded to women, nearly twice as much as the No. 2 most popular major, health professions and clinical sciences.

• The Department of Labor has noted that as of early 2010, women had lost fewer jobs than men in the recession, putting them in position to become the majority of the nation’s workers.

Social Trends

• America's newest generation, the Millennials, is in the middle of the coming-of-age phase of its lifecycle. Its oldest members are approaching age 30; its youngest members are approaching adolescence.

o They are the most ethnically and racially diverse cohort of youth in the nation's history. Among those ages 13 to 29: 18.5% are Hispanic; 14.2% are African American; 4.3% are Asian; 3.2% are mixed race or other; and 59.8% -- a record low -- are White.

o They are starting out as the most politically progressive age group in modern history. In the 2008 election, Millennials voted for Barack Obama over John McCain by 66% to 32%, while adults ages 30 and over split their votes 50%-49%. In the four decades since the development of Election Day exit polling, this is the largest gap ever seen in a presidential election between the votes of those under and over age 30.

o They are the first generation in human history who regards behaviors like tweeting and texting, along with websites like Facebook, YouTube, Google and Wikipedia, not as astonishing innovations of the digital era, but as everyday parts of their social lives and their search for understanding.

o They are the least religiously observant youths since survey research began charting religious behavior.

o They are more inclined toward trust in institutions than were either of their two predecessor generations – Gen Xers (who are now ages 30 to 45) and Baby Boomers (now ages 46 to 64) when they were coming of age.

19

• "A Woman's Nation Changes Everything," a report from California first lady Maria Shriver and the Center for American Progress released in late 2009, highlights how for the first time in history, women are half of all U.S. workers and mothers are the primary breadwinners or co-breadwinners in two-thirds of American families. This tipping of the scales and the recognition of the importance of women's earnings to family well-being is a social sea change. More women than men enter college and complete degrees, and more women from more backgrounds and socioeconomic classes are going to college. Lower-income mothers are particularly benefiting from less expensive community colleges and financial aid programs. Sixty percent of master's degree recipients are now women, as are 50% of professional degree recipients. Degrees in the sciences are the one area in which women lag behind.

• General Education Trends

o The “corporatization” of education in the US (e.g., corporate funding of a number of aspects of traditional institutions, traditional institutions establishing for-profit subsidiaries, growth of for-profit providers of education and training), will continue.

o Home schooling and similar alternatives to the K-12 public schools will continue to increase in the future. The National Center for Education Statistics of the United States Department of Education reports that in 2007, the number of homeschooled students was about 1.5 million, an increase from 850,000 in 1999 and 1.1 million in 2003. The percentage of the school-age population that was homeschooled increased from 1.7 percent in 1999 to 2.9 percent in 2007.

o As government support for higher education fails to meet expectations and needs, more alliances of colleges with other higher education institutions, and with businesses and other for-profit organizations will increase.

o As business and their supporters encourage academic institutions to be more “businesslike,” there will be a decline in “liberal education.” On the other hand, skills associated with a general and liberal arts education (e.g., problem solving, conflict resolution, reasoning, communication, writing) will continue to be valued by and sought in business organizations. Language, general business and management skills (“soft skills”) will continue to be the most in-demand courses in the increasingly globalized economy.

o Future funding for public education will be increasingly tied to performance and/or learning outcome measurements.

o Life-time learners will predominate in the future in the higher education. o As distance education continues to evolve, education will no longer be a

separate and distinct function from work, but will become fused with work. o The population is aging, opening up opportunities in education and

training for the gerontology and health care fields that need qualified workers (e.g., nurses, social workers).

20

o High school graduation, and college enrollment and graduation rates for African-Americans and Latino/as will continue to lag unless there is significant intervention.

o More responsibility for lifelong learning will shift away from colleges and universities to non-traditional providers not adhering to traditional borders and boundaries. This will include for-profit and virtual education providers as well as providers who contract with businesses to provide training.

o There is increasing market value associated with skills certification (by professional groups and vendors using universal standards) over degrees awarded by colleges and universities.

o Colleges will enroll increasing numbers of students who require remedial and development work.

o American baccalaureate-granting institutions dominated the recruitment of international students for many years. However, community colleges are increasingly involved in international student recruitment, providing a viable and inexpensive alternative to four-year institutions for international students seeking sort-term study in the US. Additionally, there will be intensified competition for international students from for-profit campuses, European colleges and training institutes, and online providers.

o Growing numbers of students with disabilities are enrolling in higher education.

o More high school students are in dual enrollment and early collegiate studies programs. A rapidly increasing percentage of high schools students are entering college with enough credits to cover their first year of college. This is driving the demand for three-year degree programs.

o Competition for the time and tuition of high school students who want to take “advanced placement courses” will intensify with local universities, AP courses, and online courses competing with local community colleges.

o Nearly 60% of traditional age undergraduates attend more than one institution.

o People will increasingly expect individualized, entertaining courses that are relatively brief, focused, relevant, and immediately applicable.

o Students and employers will want learning experiences that will cross traditional boundaries of content areas and also the boundaries of credit and non-credit courses.

o Organizations that once were satisfied with their niche in credit college programs, workforce training, or personal enrichment courses will increasingly reach to become involved across each area. Four-year colleges will become very involved in workforce training at all content levels and in continuous learning within the senior population market.

o People will expect learning management systems, learning objects, and online web support sites as part of all course offerings.

o People will increasingly enroll in classes for recreational and self-development purposes as long as such course remain affordable and convenient. However, online courses and other media will compete for the attention of these students. For example, the History Channel, the

21

Smithsonian Institute, and DVD selections will compete with local colleges to provide life-long learning courses for history buffs.

o Four-year colleges, after a decade of seeking to become more selective and growing their reputation of quality, are seeking to grow their undergraduate numbers and especially their lower division classes. This is in an effort to aggressively increase their market share of recent high school graduates. This opens the prospect of more competition for these students between community colleges and four-year colleges that have been transfer partners.

o The fastest growing student segment in undergraduate education has become those students who migrate from campus to campus and back and forth between campuses to take courses that fit their family obligations, their pocketbook, and their work schedules. More than 60 percent of even traditional age undergraduates attend more than one college. Many of these students use summer sessions to attenuate course loads in other terms and/or take breaks from their “home campus”.

o The demand for public school teachers in K-12 will continue to increase. Consequently, teacher’s education articulation programs between community colleges and four-year institutions will increase in the future.

o The number of people seeking to enter teaching after initial careers in other sectors will increase to meet the demand for teachers. The opportunity for these people to be trained and certified as teachers will be limited at four-year campuses. The opportunities for continuing education of existing teachers will be limited, and the demand for such training opportunities will outstrip the ability of other colleges to provide quality and well located classes.

• Tuition and Financial Aid:

o In 2008-09, undergraduate students received an average of $10,185 in financial aid per full-time equivalent (FTE) student, including $5,041 in grant aid and $4,585 in federal loans. Graduate students received an average of $22,740 in aid, including $7,558 in grant aid and $14,598 in federal loans.

o Average grant aid per undergraduate FTE increased by $1,439 from $3,602 (in 2008 dollars) in 1998-99 to $5,041 in 2008-09.

o In 2008-09, 39% of undergraduate grant aid came from colleges and universities, and 36% came from the federal government.

o The average annual rate of growth in total federal grants (in constant dollars) declined from 9% between 1998-99 and 2003-04 to 3% over the next five years.

o The average annual rate of growth in total state grants declined from 8% to 3%. Institutional grant dollars per FTE student increased by 7%, from $1,718 to $1,840 (in 2008 dollars) from 1998-99 to 2003-04, and by 19% to $2,190 over the next five years.

o At private colleges with tuition exceeding $30,975 in 2007-08, the proportion of tuition and fees covered by institutional grant aid ranged from

22

about 40% for students from families with incomes below $60,000 to 16% for those from families with incomes of $100,000 or higher.

o The median debt for all bachelor’s degree recipients in 2007-08 was $11,000. Among the two-thirds who borrowed, median debt was about $20,000.

o Among all bachelor’s degree recipients, median debt was about $7,960 at public four-year institutions, $17,040 at private not-for-profit four-year institutions, and $31,190 at for-profit institutions.

o Among bachelor’s degree recipients who borrowed, median debt was about $17,700 at public four-year institutions, $22,380 at private not-for-profit four-year institutions, and $32,650 at for-profit institutions.

• The nation’s public schools are projected to have a significant increase in enrollment over the next 8 years:

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

50,349,000 50,767,000 51,239,000 51,769,000 52,346,000 52,892,000 53,426,000 53,933,000

• National projected numbers for public high school graduates through 2018-2019:

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

2,912,370 2,904,760 2,888,890 2,892,340 2,926,140 2,958,520 3,004,160 3,133,050

• National projected numbers for private high school graduates through 2018-

2019:

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19

312,290 305,750 304,570 294,570 291.250 286.350 281,680 277,160

• The national percentage of high school graduates who go directly to degree-granting post-secondary institutions is around 63%.

Technological Trends

• At the beginning of 2010, 88.9% of all American households owned a personal computer, and 81.4% of all households had Internet access. Among households with Internet access, 48.3% had high speed Internet at home. There were statistically significant associations between parental income or education and home computer ownership and Internet access.

• In the digital era, news has become omnipresent. Americans access it in multiple formats on multiple platforms on myriad devices. The overwhelming majority of Americans (92%) use multiple platforms to get news on a typical day, including national TV, local TV, the Internet, local newspapers, radio and national

23

newspapers. Some 46% of Americans say they get news from four to six media platforms on a typical day. Just 7% get their news from a single media platform on a typical day. Experience of news is also becoming a shared social experience as people swap links in emails, post news stories on their social networking site feeds, highlight news stories in their Tweets and debate the significance of events in discussion threads. For instance, more than 8 in 10 online news consumers get or share links in emails.

• A March 2010 Pew Research Center survey found that while positive perceptions of the banking and finance industry, large corporations, labor unions, the media industry, and entertainment industry are exceptionally low, the technology industry made the top of the list. In fact, fully 80% of those under age 30 express positive views of the tech sector.

• The new education industry born of the Internet and the information economy will continue to grow, and will compete with more traditional providers for public funds, investment dollars, and students. The competition for resources will become almost as prominent as the competition for students.

• Alternative sources for education – both for-profit and non-profit – will provide learning in every area of need and interest to customers, but competition will be most intense for the high volume and/or high profit courses and programs that are known as “cash cows”. These programs often support a traditional organization’s ability to offer other courses.

• “E-learning” providers are redefining the concepts of learning using learning objects (standalone units of instruction that have measurable objectives, a learning activity, and an assessment component).

• Standards for e-learning quality are becoming clearer, more defined, and are increasingly retrievable from online sites that encourage comparisons among competitors. According to a recent study by the College Board, the federal government, regional accrediting agencies, and others are using websites to create more competition among colleges by providing customers with more information on tuition and fees, success rates, and other data that will drive enrollment decisions.

• E-learning will likely become the sole provider for one-third of learners and will be a major component in another third of the courses that offer a combination of e-learning and seat time at a particular location. E-learning will even be a major support mechanism for classroom-oriented approaches to learning.

• As institutions continue to reach wider audiences, they will become increasingly focused on attracting and retaining distance learning clients through quality courses, on-line students and academic services, and related processes. Colleges will continue to develop mechanisms and strategies that support students’ success with on-line learning.

24

• Opportunities will increase for colleges to form and execute on-line learning and teaching partnerships with business and industries to develop mutually beneficial courses.

• Personal hand-held Internet devices will displace notebooks computers as the tool of choice for traditional as well as on-line learners.

• Increasingly, the customer, not the institution, will define what learning is, how it is to happen, and when and where it occurs. Students, with increased alternatives for learning, will also have higher expectations for the level of individualized service provided by the non-teaching staff and regarding the quality of services that support the learning process.

25

Data Sources

• American Association of University Women (http://www.aauw.org)

• Astin, A. W. (1993). What matters in college?: Four critical years revisited. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.

• Bureau of Labor Statistics (http://www.bls.gov/)

• Bureau of the Census (http://www.census.gov/)

• Campus Progress (http://www.campusprogress.org/)

• Center for American Progress, Fast Track to College: Increasing Postsecondary Success for all Students. (http://www.americanprogress.org/)

• Central Intelligence Agency, Mapping the Global Future (http://www.foia.cia.gov/)

• College Board (http://www.collegeboard.com/)

• Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (http://www.richmondfed.org/)

• Harvard Education Letter (http://www.hepg.org/main/hel/Index.html)

• Herman Futurist Group (http://www.hermangroup.com/)

• Human Capital Institute (http://www.hci.org/)

• Institute of Education Sciences (http://ies.ed.gov/)

• Learning Circuits: The American Society for Training & Development’s Source for e-Learning (http://www.astd.org/LC/)

• Middle States Commission on Higher Education (http://www.msche.org/)

• National Bureau of Economic Research (http://www.nber.org/)

• National Center for Education Statistics(http://nces.ed.gov/)

• National Intelligence Council (http://www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_home.html)

• National Survey of Student Engagement (2003). Converting data into action: Expanding the boundaries of institutional improvement. Bloomington, IN: Indiana University Center for Postsecondary Research.

• New York Times (http://www.nytimes.com/)

• Newsweek (http://www.newsweek.com/)

26

• Orey, M., Jones, S.A., & Branch, R. M. (2010). Educational Media and Technology Yearbook. Westport, CT: Libraries Unlimited.

• Quisic Insights and Research (http://www.quisic.com/)

• RAND Corporation (http://www.rand.org/)

• Society for College and University Planning, Trends to Watch in Higher Education (http://www.scup.org)

• Society for Human Resource Management (http://www.shrm.org/)

• Stratfor Decade Forecast to 2015 (http://www.stratfor.com/)

• The Christian Science Monitor (http://www.csmonitor.com/)

• The Economist (http://www.economist.com/)

• The Future of Work (http://www.thefutureofwork.net/)

• Trends Research Institute (http://www.trendsresearch.com/)

• U.S. Congressional Budget Office (http://www.cbo.gov/)

• U.S. Department of Commerce (http://www.commerce.gov/)

• U.S. Department of Labor (http://www.dol.gov/)

• Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (http://www.wiche.edu/)

27

Regional Trends

North Carolina is located within the South Atlantic US Census Bureau regional

division, which also includes Delaware, Maryland, the District of Columbia, West

Virginia, Georgia and Florida. Therefore, we have focused our discussion of regional

trends on the South Atlantic region.

US Census Bureau Region Map (2010)

28

Demographic Trends

• According to the US Census Bureau data, as of July 1, 2009, the estimated population for the South-Atlantic region is 59,195,930.

• While the South-Atlantic region is often viewed as less densely populated that other regions of the country, the population has grown substantially in the last 20 years. Florida has a total population that ranks fourth in the nation, while North Carolina ranks tenth and Virginia ranks twelfth.

• The geographic distribution of the population aged 65 and older illustrates age differences by state. While 12.8 percent of U.S. residents were age 65 and older in 2005, the proportions in individual states differed. Florida had the highest proportion in this age range, 17 percent. Georgia was the lowest with about 10 percent.

29

• The US sex ratio is 96 (number of males per 100 females). Most states in the South-Atlantic region have low sex ratios: States South-Atlantic Region Sex Ratio

Delaware 94.5

Maryland 93.1

District of Columbia 89.2

Virginia 94.1

West Virginia 95.8

North Carolina 95.3

South Carolina 94.0

Georgia 96.8

Florida 95.7

• As the US becomes more diverse in terms of race and ethnicity, the geographic distribution of ethnic minority groups in this region is worth noting. While 13 percent of people living in the United States in 2005 were African American, fifty-seven percent of the population in the District of Columbia was African American. Within the South Atlantic region, Georgia (30 percent), Maryland (29 percent), and South Carolina (29 percent) had significant portions of African Americans. Among the states in the region, Florida had the most Hispanic or Latino population (19 percent, compared to a national rate of 14 percent), and West Virginia the lowest (0.9 percent). In terms of non-Hispanic Whites, West Virginia (94 percent) ranked third in the US (following Maine and Vermont), and in the District of Columbia, 31 percent of residents were non-Hispanic White.

30

• Between 2004 and 2005, the South (including the South-Atlantic region) was the only region to experience a net increase in population from domestic migration. During the 12-month period, 1.3 million people aged 1 and older moved into the South from other regions of the United States, while 907,000 people moved away — for a net gain of 428,000. Taking movers from abroad into account, the total gain from net migration in the South was about 1.1 million people during this time period. Almost half of all people who moved between 2004 and 2005 gave housing-related reasons for their relocation.

Economic Trends

• Comparing household income across regions in 2005, it was highest in the Northeast ($50,900), followed by the West ($50,000) and the Midwest ($46,000). It was lowest in the South ($42,100).

• The median household income in the South-Atlantic region varies greatly by county. The five of the most affluent counties in the US are in the South-Atlantic region, as is one of the poorest.

• According to the data collected from the American Community Survey 2008, states in the south-Atlantic region demonstrate varied levels of poverty:

31

• Between April and May 2010, 20 states recorded statistically significant

increases in employment. The largest over-the-month statistically significant job gains occurred in Texas (+43,600), followed by California (+28,300). Virginia (+20,300) was among the states with the greatest gains in that period.

• Regional unemployment rate comparison: Unemployment Rate May-09 Mar-10 Apr-10 May-10 South-Atlantic 9.40 10.60 10.30 10.00

• Regional employment cost index comparison:

Employment Cost Index Mar-09 Dec-09 Mar-10 Percent change to Mar 2010 from Mar 2009

South-Atlantic 110.3 111.5 112.2 1.7

32

Social Trends

• The average household in the US was estimated to have 2.61 members, according to the 2006-2008 American Community Survey. In the south-Atlantic region, the average was slightly lower (2.53), with Georgia (2.67) ranked the highest, and District of Columbia the lowest (2.21).

• Compared to the national average (21.4%), the percent of households comprised of a married couple with children under 18 years old is relatively low in the south-Atlantic region:

33

• The average percent of the population of 25 years and over who have completed

high school in the South-Atlantic region is 84.3% (84.5% for the nation), and the average percent that have a bachelor's degree is 27.6% (27.4% for the nation):

State in South- Atlantic Region

Percent of Population of 25 years and over who have completed High School

Percent of Population of 25 years and over who have completed a Bachelor's degree

Delaware 86.7 26.8

Maryland 87.5 35.1

District of Columbia 85.3 47.2

Virginia 85.7 33.2

West Virginia 81.5 17.0

North Carolina 82.9 25.6

South Carolina 82.1 23.2

Georgia 82.9 27.0

Florida 84.9 25.7

• According to the data reported by the US Department of Education, the South-Atlantic region states have 41% of the nation’s largest school districts. Florida has the most within the region (14), being the second in the nation (following California where there are 16 of the largest school districts). Georgia (6), Maryland (6), Virginia (6), and North Carolina (5) are also states with more than one of the nation’s largest school districts.

• Despite a less than 1% increase in public school enrollment nationally, all states in the region exhibited significant increases in public school enrollment, ranging from 7% in Delaware to 2.8% in Maryland.

• The percentage of change in schools devoted solely to special education is noteworthy. Despite arguments that mainstreaming makes educational sense, Delaware (35%) and Maryland (17.4%) both showed growth of segregated special education schools.

• According to the national educational center statistics, in 2006, among the 20 largest enrollment degree-granting universities and colleges, 4 are from the South-Atlantic region, all in Florida (Miami-Dade College, University of Florida, University of Central Florida, and University of South Florida).

34

• Technological Trends

• With the growing instructional technology use, more and more universities have started to offer online programs and courses. A large number of universities and colleges in the South-Atlantic region offer online programs. In addition to online programs, some universities and colleges have decided to make course materials, including lectures, tests, notes and readings, available for free on the Internet for people around the world to take advantage of the opportunities for learning.

• Several institutions in the South-Atlantic have worked with the National Center for Academic Transformation to harness technology to reduce costs and improve learning. For example, Virginia Tech has eliminated lecture-based introductory math classes and has introduced an “emporium model” using self-paced tutoring programs like MyMathLab, which permits students to work from any Internet connection while assisted by especially trained staff.

• There is a significant range across the region when it comes to Internet access. Information of this sort can be helpful when developing and marketing distance learning programming.

State

Individual accesses the Internet from some location (number and percent of population)

Individual lives in household with Internet access (number and percent of population)

United States 177,997,000 (62.4%) 191,520,000 (67.1%) Delaware 539,000 (66.1%) 580,000 (71.0%) Maryland 3,597,000 (67.4%) 3,825,000 (71.6%) District of Columbia 357,000 (65.9%) 339,000 (62.6%) Virginia 4,808,000 (67.0%) 5,247,000 (73.1%) West Virginia 911,000 (52.9%) 974,000 (56.5%) North Carolina 4,958,000 (58.4%) 5,193,000 (61.3%) South Carolina 2,341,000 (56.6%) 2,463,000 (59.5%) Georgia 5,574,000 (62.3%) 5.923,000 (66.2%0 Florida 10,858,000 (62.1%) 12,155,000 (69.5%)

35

Data Sources • Bureau of Labor Statistics (http://www.bls.gov/)

• Bureau of the Census (http://www.census.gov/)

• Census Regions and Divisions of the United States: (http://www.census.gov/geo/www/us_regdiv.pdf)

• Chronicle of Higher Education Research Services (http://chronicle.com/section/Home/)

• College Board (http://www.collegeboard.com/)

• Institute of Education Sciences (http://ies.ed.gov/)

• Middle States Commission on Higher Education (http://www.msche.org/)

• National Bureau of Economic Research (http://www.nber.org/)

• National Center for Education Statistics (http://nces.ed.gov/)

• New York Times (http://www.nytimes.com/)

• Society for College and University Planning, Trends to Watch in Higher Education (http://www.scup.org)

• Southern Association of Colleges and Schools (http://www.sacscoc.org/)

• Trends Research Institute (http://www.trendsresearch.com/)

• U.S. Department of Commerce (http://www.commerce.gov/)

• U.S. Department of Education Common Core Data: (http://nces.ed.gov/ccd/ccd_publications.asp/)

• U.S. Department of Labor (http://www.dol.gov/)

• WICHE - Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (http://www.wiche.edu/)

36

State Trends

In this section, we focus the environmental scan on North Carolina in particular,

describing the state’s demographic, economic, social, and technology trends.

Demographic Trends

• North Carolina is experiencing rapid growth and is currently the third-fastest growing state east of the Mississippi River. Based on the 2009 US Census Bureau estimate, the total population in North Carolina is 9,380,884 among which 48.7% are male and 51.3% female. The population ranks tenth across states. The fastest growing counties are currently in the Charlotte, Raleigh-Durham, and Wilmington areas (see graphic below).

• This rate of population expansion is expected to continue in the future resulting in

an additional 4 million new residents by 2030.

• Population growth, which sets the ultimate limits on workforce and employment

growth, is due to a number of factors, primarily birth rates and migration. In-

37

migration has been an influential force in North Carolina’s past growth patterns. In-migration during the first half of the 1990s steadily increased from around 75,000 to nearly 120,000 annually. In the second half of the 1990s, it steadily declined from 120,000 to around 85,000. With the decline in the birth rate, in-migration will remain an important source of the state's population growth.

• Slower growth due primarily to lower birth rates has substantially altered the age structure of North Carolina's population in recent decades and will continue to do so in the future. The median age of the state’s population rose from 26.5 in 1970 to 36.2 in 2000. By the year 2010 the median age is projected to be 38.5, after which it will begin a slight decline.

• The working-age adult population (25-64) will increase during the next decade, but by much less in absolute and percentage terms than in previous decades. Furthermore, the great majority of the increase will occur in the older half of the working-age population (45-64). Growth in preschool (0-4) and school-age (5-17) groups will not substantially bolster the size of the workforce during the next decade. The aging of North Carolina’s population and workforce will have numerous and diverse impacts on the state’s economy during the coming decade, most of which should be favorable. In particular, an older, more experienced workforce, combined with an increase in the capital-labor ratio, should produce real gains in productivity, particularly in manufacturing.

• In recent years much has been made of the projected changes in the racial composition of the North Carolina workforce. North Carolina's Hispanic population was small in 1990 (76,726). However, a very large increase occurred over the next decade. By 2000 the Hispanic population reached 378,963, an increase of nearly 400%.

• Reliable growth rates of the Hispanic population in NC are difficult to project. North Carolina’s population is around 7.7% Hispanic, ranking 25th in the Hispanic population share nationally. New Mexico ranks first with 45%. North Carolina’s Hispanic population is the 11th largest in the nation. As of 2010, about 678,000 Hispanics reside in North Carolina. However, these figures do not include undocumented immigrants, which may substantially underestimate the Hispanic population.

• Almost 2% of eligible voters in North Carolina are Latinos, the 35th largest Hispanic eligible voter population share nationally. New Mexico is first at 38%.

Year Hispanic Count % of Total

1980 56,667 1.0%

2000 378,963 4.7%

2007 638,444 7.05%

38

Approximately 20% of Latinos in North Carolina are eligible to vote, ranking last nationwide in the share of the Hispanic population that is eligible to vote.

• Hispanic Population and National Origin

U.S. Rank Total Hispanic Population in North Carolina 678,000 11 Hispanics as Percent of State Population 7% 25 Hispanics as Percent of U.S. Hispanic Population 1.4% Native-Born Hispanics (Percent of Hispanics) 47% 49 Foreign-Born Hispanics (Percent of Hispanics) 53% 3 Mexican Origin (Percent of Hispanics) 65% 11 Non-Mexican Origin (Percent of Hispanics) 35% 14

• Between 2004 and 2014, North Carolina's white population is expected to grow

from 6,378,000 to 7,260,000, while the nonwhite population is projected to expand from 2,162,000 to 2,628,000.

• Ethnic Diversity as of 2009

Ethnicity 2009 White 66.0% African American 21.6% Native American 1.3% Asian/Asian Ancestry 2.0% Native Hawaiian/ Pacific Island .10% Hispanic/ Latino 7.7% Multiracial 1.3%

39

Economic Trends

• North Carolina is characterized by diverse regional economies. o Charlotte continues to experience rapid growth, in large part due to the

banking & finance industry. Charlotte is now the second largest banking center in the United States after New York, and is home to Bank of America and Wells Fargo subsidiary, Wachovia. The Charlotte metro area is also home to 5 other Fortune 500 companies.

o The economy of the southeast region is tied to a significant US military presence.

o The Mountains, Northeast region and the Outer Banks have benefited from a growing tourism economy.

o The Triad is home to numerous manufacturing and logistics industries. o The Research Triangle region is known for its technology-related

businesses and prominent university presence. o North Carolina is also well known for its many agri-business industries,

and is a national leader in turkey and pork production. o The growth of a number of service-oriented and knowledge-based

companies is expected to change the nature of workforce training, job skills, and industry recruitment and placement.

• Employment by Major Industry Groups in 2004 and Projected to 2014

Major Industry Group Total Employment 2004

Total Employment 2014

Annualized Growth Rate

Construction 218,470 263,880 1.91 Education and Health Services 778,960 1,011,280 2.64

Financial Activities 188,060 217,060 1.44 Goods-Producing 814,020 818,360 0.05 Government 264,000 289,930 0.94 Information 72,370 83,420 1.43 Leisure and Hospitality 348,930 428,640 2.08 Manufacturing 578,710 538,120 -0.72 Natural Resources and Mining 16,840 16,360 -0.29

Other Services (Except Government) 155,450 181,560 1.56

Professional and Business Services 430,540 567,650 2.8

Services-Providing 2,987,470 3,651,820 2.03 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 749,160 872,280 1.53

40

• Fastest Growing Occupations in North Carolina

Occupation Annual Percentage Change

NC Employment 2004

Estimated Employment 2014

Average Annual Openings

Medical Assistants 4.28 9,380 14,260 660 Biomedical Engineers 4.27 270 410 20 Physician Assistants 4.16 2,620 3,940 170 Network Systems and Data Communications Analysts

4.15 7,600 11,410 470

Personal and Home Care Aides 4.10 18,800 28,100 1,230

Home Health Aides 4.02 34,510 51,190 2,120 Dental Hygienists 3.90 5,220 7,650 290 Dental Assistants 3.87 6,920 10,120 510 Physical Therapist Assistants 3.77 1,940 2,810 120

Computer Software Engineers, Applications 3.65 8,990 12,870 480

• Fastest Growing Industries in North Carolina

Industry Title NC Employment 2004

Estimated Employment 2014

Annual Growth Rate

Net Change

Ambulatory Health Care Services 143,970 206,650 3.68 62,680 Administrative and Support Services 209,520 292,820 3.40 83,300 Internet Publishing and Broadcasting 270 370 3.20 100 Museums, Historical Sites, and Similar Institution 2,410 3,210 2.91 800

Health Care and Social Assistance 445,590 588,890 2.83 143,300 Warehousing and Storage 18,600 24,550 2.81 5,950 Professional and Business Services 430,540 567,650 2.80 137,110 Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book, and Music Stores 15,760 20,770 2.80 5,010

Social Assistance 52,760 69,140 2.74 16,380 Amusement, Gambling, and Recreation Industries 33,340 43,620 2.72 10,280

41

• Most Declining / Slowest Growing Industries in North Carolina

Industry Title NC Employment 2004

Estimated Employment 2014

Annual Growth Rate

Net Change

Apparel Manufacturing 26,850 11,710 -7.96 -15,140

Textile Mills 61,680 35,250 -5.44 -26,430

Leather and Allied Product Manufacturing 750 500 -3.97 -250

Beverage and Tobacco Product Manufacturing 15,320 11,280 -3.01 -4,040

Rail Transportation 2,250 1,710 -2.71 -540

Textile Product Mills 13,670 10,790 -2.34 -2,880

Crop Production 3,200 2,600 -2.05 -600

Unpaid Family Workers, Primary Job 4,450 3,630 -2.02 -820

Animal Production 2,660 2,180 -1.97 -480

Utilities 13,540 11,410 -1.70 -2,130

• Most Declining / Slowest Growing Occupations in North Carolina

Occupation NC Employment 2004

Estimated Employment 2014

Average Annual Growth Rate

Total Average Annual Openings

Textile Knitting and Weaving Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders

11,430 4,640 -8.62 130

Rail Yard Engineers, Dinkey Operators, and Hostlers 200 100 -6.70 10

Rail Transportation Workers, All Other 200 100 -6.70 10

Textile Bleaching and Dyeing Machine Operators and Tenders

5,160 2,640 -6.48 130

Textile, Apparel, and Furnishings Workers, All Other 2,260 1,170 -6.37 50

42

Occupation NC Employment 2004

Estimated Employment 2014

Average Annual Growth Rate

Total Average Annual Openings

Railroad Brake, Signal, and Switch Operators 110 60 -5.88 0

Textile Winding, Twisting, and Drawing Out Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders

12,420 6,880 -5.74 230

Credit Authorizers, Checkers, and Clerks

1,940 1,130 -5.26 40

Meter Readers, Utilities 1,900 1,130 -5.06 60 Textile Cutting Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders

2,400 1,500 -4.59 50

• The health care and social assistance sector of the North Carolina labor market

has grown and is now the largest employment sector in North Carolina. Over 500,000, or 14% of all North Carolinians now work in this sector. Since 1998, there was a 43% gain in health care jobs. Conversely, the manufacturing sector has had the greatest losses in jobs – a decline of 35% since 1998.

• The four industries listed in this chart currently account for one in three NC manufacturing jobs. The state’s traditional manufacturing industries will likely shed more workers.

NC Industry 2007 2017 Employment Change 2007-2017 % Change

Tobacco Processing 8,189 5,218 -2,971 -36% Textiles 74,617 47,670 -26,947 -36% Apparel 26,152 10,661 -15,491 -59% Furniture and Wood Products 99,121 107,520 8,399 8%

43

Social Trends

• North Carolina’s educational enrollment K-16:

Subject Total

Percent of enrolled population

In public school

In private school

Population 3 years and over enrolled in school 2,330,479 85.1% 14.9%

Nursery school, preschool 144,735 49.8% 50.2% Kindergarten to 12th grade 1,580,036 91.0% 9.0%

• Kindergarten 121,593 89.4% 10.6% • Elementary: grade 1 to grade 4 481,537 90.9% 9.1% • Elementary: grade 5 to grade 8 483,863 90.5% 9.5% • High school: grade 9 to grade 12 493,043 92.0% 8.0%

College, undergraduate 512,747 80.2% 19.8% Graduate, professional school 92,961 68.0% 32.0%

• North Carolina’s public schools are projected to have a significant increase in enrollment over the next 8 years:

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1,573,000 1,602,000 1,634,000 1,666,000 1,697,000 1,725,000 1,751,000 1,775,000

• Projected numbers for North Carolina public high school graduates through 2018-2019 indicate an increase of 23%, compared to a 7.6% increase nationally:

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 83,120 82,010 82,910 85,500 88,720 91,350 94,890 102,180

• The percentage of North Carolina high school graduates who go directly to degree-granting post-secondary institutions is around 66%. The rate has been somewhat constant since 2006.

• According to the 2006-2008 American Community Survey Census Decennial, 25.6% of the North Carolinians 25 years of age and older have completed a bachelor’s degree. Across counties, the percentage ranges from a high of 55.4% in Orange County to a low of 6.4% percent in Greene County. The ten most highly-educated counties in North Carolina (percent of the population over 25 holding a bachelor’s degree or higher) are:

44

North Carolina 25.6

Orange County 55.4 Wake County 47 Durham County 42.3 Mecklenburg County 40.4 New Hanover County 36.3 Watauga County 35.3 Chatham County 33.2 Guilford County 32.1 Buncombe County 31.6 Dare County 31.4

• In North Carolina, as nationally, there will be an increased demand for skilled workers and workers who have completed education beyond the high school level. Between 2010 and 2030, jobs requiring education beyond high school will grow faster than those requiring only high school. Jobs requiring only work-related training will decline slightly as a share of overall employment.

Technology Trends

• The information and biotechnology industries have been steadily on the rise since the creation of Research Triangle Park (RTP) in the 1950s. Located between Raleigh, Durham, and Chapel Hill, it is a globally prominent research center home to over 170 companies and federal agencies and is the largest and oldest continuously operating research and science park in the United States. Similar projects have been recently introduced in North Carolina. The North Carolina Research Campus in Kannapolis, some 30 miles northeast of Charlotte, was established to bolster the Charlotte area in the same way that RTP changed the Raleigh-Durham region. In downtown Winston-Salem, the Piedmont Triad Research Park is undergoing an expansion, while the University of North Carolina at Greensboro and North Carolina A&T State University have jointly created the Gateway University Research Park, a technology-based research entity which will focus its efforts on areas such as nanotechnology, biotechnology and biochemistry, environmental sciences, and genetics among other science-based disciplines

• North Carolina is now ranked as one of the top 3 leading States for Green Technology, Bio-Chemical Engineering, Medical Sciences, and Computer Engineering.

• Individual access to internet:

State Total Individual accesses the Internet from some location (number and percent of population)

Individual lives in household with Internet access (number and percent of population)

45

North Carolina 8,484,000 4,958,000 (58.4%) 5,193,000 (61.2%) • Several universities and colleges in North Carolina are noted for their online

programs. The largest include:

Name Type Student population

North Carolina State University at Raleigh 4-year, Public 33,819 University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill 4-year, Public 28,916 East Carolina University 4-year, Public 27,654 University of North Carolina at Charlotte 4-year, Public 24,701 University of North Carolina at Greensboro 4-year, Public 21,306 Central Piedmont Community College 2-year, Public 19,364 Appalachian State University 4-year, Public 16,968 Wake Technical Community College 2-year, Public 15,203 Duke University 4-year, Private not-for-

profit 14,350

Guilford Technical Community College 2-year, Public 13,432 University of North Carolina-Wilmington 4-year, Public 12,924 Fayetteville Technical Community College 2-year, Public 11,203 North Carolina A & T State University 4-year, Public 10,614 Western Carolina University 4-year, Public 9,429 Forsyth Technical Community College 2-year, Public 9,144 Cape Fear Community College 2-year, Public 9,001 North Carolina Central University 4-year, Public 8,587 Asheville-Buncombe Technical Community College

2-year, Public 7,542

Pitt Community College 2-year, Public 7,512 Rowan-Cabarrus Community College 2-year, Public 7,330 University of North Carolina at Pembroke 4-year, Public 6,661 Gaston College 2-year, Public 6,507 Winston-Salem State University 4-year, Public 6,427 Fayetteville State University 4-year, Public 6,283 Durham Technical Community College 2-year, Public 5,578 Catawba Valley Community College 2-year, Public 5,528 Alamance Community College 2-year, Public 5,508 Coastal Carolina Community College 2-year, Public 5,415 Central Carolina Community College 2-year, Public 5,381

46

Data sources:

• Bureau of Labor Statistics (http://www.bls.gov/)

• Center for College Affordability and Productivity

(http://www.centerforcollegeaffordability.org/uploads/NC_Report_Final.pdf)

• Council for Community & Economic Research (http://www.c2er.org/)

• e-learning North Carolina (http://www.elearningnc.gov/)

• Employment Security Commission of North Carolina (http://www.ncsecu.com/)

• e-NC Authority (http://www.e-nc.org/)

• International Center for Education Statistics (http://nces.ed.gov/)

• National Bureau of Economic Research (http://www.nber.org/)

• National Policy Research Council (http://www.nprcouncil.com/)

• North Carolina Economic Development Intelligence System

(http://edis.commerce.state.nc.us/)

• North Carolina Rural Economic Development Center

(http://www.ncruralcenter.org/)

• Official Web Site of the State of North Carolina (http://www.ncgov.com/)

• Raleigh News and Observer (http://www.newsobserver.com/)

• State Library of North Carolina (http://statelibrary.ncdcr.gov/)

• TechJournal South (http://www.techjournalsouth.com/)

• The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond (http://www.richmondfed.org/)

• The RAND Corporation (http://www.rand.org/)

• U.S. Census Bureau (http://www.census.gov/)

• U.S. Congressional Budget Office (http://www.cbo.gov/)

• U.S. Department of Commerce (http://www.commerce.gov/)

• U.S. Department of Labor (http://www.dol.gov/)

47

Craven County Trends

Craven County is located in the central coastal plain of North Carolina. The County is

located approximately eighty miles east of Raleigh, the state capitol. The County’s

major waterway is the Neuse River which joins the Pamlico Sound just east of New

Bern. Major highways bisecting the County include US 17 (north-south route) and US

70 (east- west route). The southern boundary of the County is only 13 miles from the

Atlantic Ocean. The County is home to the United States Marine Corps Air Station

Cherry Point – the largest in the world -- which gives Craven County regional, national,

and international significance.

Demographic Trends

• North Carolina is divided into 18 regions based on locale for the purpose of coordinating planning efforts between neighboring counties. These designated regions are considered the Councils of Government. Craven County is included in Region P along with Pamlico, Carteret, Jones, and Onslow counties.

• Craven County, Region P, and North Carolina Total Population and Percent Change, 1980-2007

1980 1990 2000 2007 ‘80-‘90 ‘90-‘00 ‘00-‘05 Overall ‘80-‘07

Craven County

71,043 81,613 91,523 92,668 14.9% 12.1% 1.3% 30.4%

Pamlico County

10,938 11,372 12,934 13,068 4.0% 13.7% 1.0% 19.5%

Carteret County

41,092 52,556 59,383 62,766 27.9% 13.0% 5.7% 52.7%

Jones County

9,705 9,914 10,419 10,312 2.2% 5.1% -0.7% 6.3%

Onslow County

112,784 149,838 150,355 157,738 32.9% 0.3% 4.9% 39.9%

Region P 245,562 305,293 324,614 336,552 24.3% 6.3% 3.7% 37.1%

North Carolina

5,880,095 6,628,637 8,049,313 8,682,066 12.7% 21.4% 7.9% 47.7%

48

• Craven County’s population growth by municipality from 1980 to 2006.

Total Population Percent Change

1980 1990 2000 2006 '80-'90 '90-'00 '00-'06

Bridgeton 461 498 328 310 8.0% -34.1% -5.49%

Cove City* 500 497 433 414 -0.6% -12.9% -4.39% Dover* 600 451 443 445 -24.8% -1.8% -0.45% Havelock 17,718 20,300 22,442 22,772 14.6% 10.6% 1.47% New Bern 14,557 17,363 23,111 25,456 19.3% 33.1% 10.15% River Bend 959 2,408 2,923 3,028 151.1% 21.4% 3.59% Trent Woods 1,177 2,366 4,224 4,321 101.0% 78.5% 2.30% Vanceboro* 833 946 898 898 13.6% -5.1% 0.00%

• According to the 2005-2009 American Community Survey data, Craven County had a total population of 97,000, with 49,000 (51%) females and 48,000 (49%) males. The median age was 36.8 years. Twenty-three percent of the population was under 18 years and 15 percent was 65 years and older.

• According to early release US census data, Craven County population increased 13.2 percent since 2000. Pamlico County’s population edged up 1.6 percent but Jones County slipped back by 2.2 percent to 10,153. New Bern’s population is up 27.7 percent in the new headcount, with 29,524 people now living in city limits.

• In 2009, for people reporting one race alone, 73 percent were White; 24 percent were Black or African American.

Population Estimates by Race and Hispanic Origin in 2009

Number Rank in U.S.

County Percentage

U.S. Percentage

American Ind. or Alaskan Native Alone

434 853 0.4% 1.0%

Asian Alone 1,303 542 1.3% 4.6% Black Alone 23,330 288 23.7% 12.9% Native Hawaiian and Other Pac. Isl. Alone

81 485 0.1% 0.2%

White Alone 71,719 667 72.8% 79.6% Two or More Race Groups 1,662 517 1.7% 1.7% Hispanic or Latino (can be of any race) Non-Hispanic or Latino 94,666 560 96.1% 84.2% Hispanic or Latino 3,863 786 3.9% 15.8%

49

• As of early 2010, 6% of the population of Craven County was Hispanic. This represents a 71% increase in the number of Hispanics in Craven County since 2000.

• According to the 2009 data, majority of people living in Craven County were native born (96%), with 50 percent who were born in North Carolina. Four percent of the people living in Craven County in 2005-2009 were foreign born.

• Among people at least five years old living in Craven County in 2005-2009, 6 percent spoke a language other than English at home. Of those speaking a language other than English at home, 54 percent spoke Spanish and 46 percent spoke some other language; 35 percent reported that they did not speak English "very well."

• The mobility of county population has been relatively stable. In 2005-2009, 75 percent of the people at least one year old living in Craven County was living in the same residence one year earlier; 11 percent had moved during the past year from another residence in the same county, 4 percent from another county in the same state, 8 percent from another state, and 1 percent from abroad.

• Components of population change in 2008-09

Components of Population Change in 2008/2009 Number Rank in

U.S. Percent of U.S. U.S.

Net Domestic Migration (chg 2008/2009) 362 423 Net International Migration (chg 2008/2009) 77 712 0.01% 854,905

Natural Increase (births minus deaths) 698 436 0.04% 1,776,800 Births 1,663 484 0.04% 4,262,897 Deaths 965 508 0.04% 2,486,097

50

• Craven County and North Carolina Population Projections

2015 2020 2025 2030 % Change Annual Growth Rate

Low Growth Scenario

102,965 105,938 107,239 108,347 18.4% .006

High Growth Scenario

105,059 106,143 108,739 110,669 20.9% .011

North Carolina

10,263,686 11,004,303 11,751,384 12,352,728 53.5% .0178

• The high growth population forecast includes an anticipated influx of military

personnel dependents and induced population growth as the result of the military realignment expected to occur by 2011. Within the seven military growth task force counties of Carteret, Craven, Duplin, Jones, Onslow, Pamlico, and Pender, an influx of military related population of 36,000 is expected. Of this regional total, approximately 6,500 people will be located in Craven County. The population growth of Craven County, particularly from 2000, has been affected by the increased military presence of the Marine Corps Air Station Cherry Point.

• Military-related population

Active Military Retired Military

Civilian Family Members

Total

9,048 2,932 3,093 18,900 33,973

Economic Trends

• According to the 2005-2009 American Community Survey data, for the employed population 16 years and older, the leading industries in Craven County were educational services, and health care, and social assistance, 22 percent, and manufacturing, 12 percent.

• Among the most common occupations were: Management, professional, and related occupations, 31 percent; sales and office occupations, 25 percent; Service occupations, 19 percent; production, transportation, and material moving occupations, 13 percent; and construction, extraction, maintenance, and repair occupations, 13 percent. Seventy percent of the people employed were private wage and salary workers; 24 percent was federal, state, or local government workers; and 7 percent was self-employed in own not incorporated business workers.

51

• The median income of households in Craven County was $41,021 in 2009. Seventy-six percent of the households received earnings and 25 percent received retirement income other than Social Security. Thirty-one percent of the households received Social Security. The average income from Social Security was $14,591. These income sources are not mutually exclusive; that is, some households received income from more than one source.

Median Income Number Rank in U.S.

Percent of U.S.

Median household income in 2009 $41,021 1577 81.7% Median household income in 2000 (adj. for inflation)

$45,850 1254 87.6%

5-year percent change 2000 to 2009 -10.5% 2416

• In 2009, 16 percent of people were in poverty. Twenty-three percent of related children under 18 were below the poverty level, compared with 10 percent of people 65 years old and over. Twelve percent of all families and 40 percent of families with a female householder and no husband present had incomes below the poverty level.

Poverty Estimates Number Rank in U.S.

5-Year % Change

Rank in % Change

Poverty rate in 2009 In 2000

16.1 12.6

1407 1476

NA 27.8%

NA 1322

Poverty rate for children under 18 in 2009 In 2000

25.7 18.3

1085 1439

NA 40.4%

NA 756

• The median monthly housing costs for mortgaged owners was $1,221, non-mortgaged owners $390, and renters $708. Thirty-three percent of owners with

52

mortgages, 17 percent of owners without mortgages, and 46 percent of renters in Craven County spent 30 percent or more of household income on housing.

• According to 2011 NC State Commerce data, the unemployment rate in Craven County has held relatively steady. In December 2009 the unemployment rate was 9.8%, while in December 2010 it was estimated to remain at 9.8%.

Year to Date 2009 Annual Employment 37,848 40,082 Unemployment 4,113 4,361 Unemployment Rate

9.8% 9.8%

• According the US Bureau Labor Statistics report, during fourth quarter 2009, the

average weekly wage in Craven County is $782, which is very close to the state average ($818).

Area Average Employment Weekly Wage United States 128,334,933 $942 North Carolina 3,802.211 $818 Craven County 38,732 $782

• Comparison of annual employment rate 2009-2010

Employment / Wages by Industry

2010 2nd Qtr Employment

2009 Annual Employment Change

Total All Industries 38,509 38,957 -448 Total Private Industry 25,364 26,016 -652 Total Government 8,104 7,963 141 Public Administration 7,014 6,931 83 Retail Trade 4,929 4,819 110 Health Care and Social Assistance 4,754 4,896 -142

Accommodation and Food Services 3,542 3,596 -54

Manufacturing 3,142 3,234 -92 Professional and Technical Services 1,890 1,761 129

Administrative and Waste Services 1,639 1,988 -349

Construction 1,382 1,436 -54 Other Services Ex. Public Admin 899 881 18

Wholesale Trade 875 867 8 Transportation and Warehousing 873 863 10

53

Employment / Wages by Industry

2010 2nd Qtr Employment

2009 Annual Employment Change

Finance and Insurance 714 773 -59 Arts, Entertainment and Recreation 510 508 2

Information 478 589 -111 Real Estate and Rental and Leasing 335 333 2

Educational Services 231 210 21 Mgt of Companies, Enterprises 146 134 12

Utilities 102 101 1 Unclassified 14 59 -45 Fishing & Hunting 0 0 0 Mining 0 0 0 Agriculture Forestry 0 0 0

• The ACCRA Cost of Living Index is a measure of living cost differences among

urban areas in the United States compiled by the Council for Community and Economic Research. The ACCRA cost of living composite index number for Craven County is 86.6 in 2009 (compared to 100 as the national average).

• Craven County enjoyed significant growth in residential building until the housing market downturn in 2007.

Craven County Summary of Residential Building Permits, 2000-2008 Year Total Permits Issued 2000 200 2001 237 2002 293 2003 357 2004 475 2005 576 2006 694 2007 360 2008 263 Total 3,365

54

• Top employers in Craven County as of the end of 2010.

Employer Name Number of Employees Second Marine Aircraft Wing 8103 Fleet Readiness Center East 3470 Marine Corps Air Station 2292 Craven County Schools 1917 CarolinaEast Health System 1900 BSH Home Appliances Corp. 925 Craven County 727 Moen 650 Craven Community College 596 City of New Bern 504 Wal-Mart 500 Hatteras Yachts 384 Naval Health Clinic 327 Weyerhaeuser 282

• Tourism is a strong contributor to the Craven County economy. Craven County Tourism Income, 1990-2005

Year Expenditures ($1,000,000)

1990 $42.64 1991 $46.67 1992 $48.46 1993 $52.47 1994 $56.10 1995 $60.01 1996 $63.05 1997 $66.18 1998 $67.55 1999 $69.06 2000 $74.09 2001 $69.67 2002 $72.32 2003 $74.73 2004 $79.68 2005 $87.42

55

• While tourism is a growing part of the Craven County economy, it will not be the driving force in the county’s economic development. The primary use of “seasonal”-type housing (motels, marinas, condos, etc.) appears to be more transient or business related than in neighboring oceanfront counties, and the total number of seasonal housing units is not substantial enough to provide a significant population impact even at full occupancy. It is likely that Craven County’s appeal as a recreational center will continue to be primarily limited to the historic and waterfront areas in and near New Bern.

• The area along the Inner Banks is undergoing significant land development that has brought fundamental changes in its economy and population. In the past few years, retirees and real estate speculators have bought up prices for waterfront properties. Waterfront property along the Inner Banks that once sold for less than $200,000 now might go for $1 million or more. The development taking place along the Inner Banks is both beneficial and detrimental. One of the positive effects is an influx of baby boomers into the region, providing newly found sources of tax revenue for the local economy as well as an increase in demand for goods and services. On the downside, as new businesses are being created, more traditional businesses are disappearing from the Inner Banks.

• Of the top 25 employers in Eastern North Carolina, the Military Department of Defense in Craven County is among the largest, reporting over 4,800 civilian workers. There has been some limited impact from the 2005 Base Closure and Realignment Commission (BRAC) recommendations. While the effects of BRAC overall has significantly reduced military employment in other geographic areas of the country, the net impact on eastern North Carolina has been anticipated to be approximately 500 positions.

• While the loss of military positions as a result of BRAC is anticipated to be minimal, the Marine Corp has announced plans to boost the total number of active-duty Marines by 27,000 to a total of 202,000 by the end of year 2011. Called “202K Plus-Up,” the growth anticipated by this plan will come through recruitment of new personnel and increased retention rates. The growth is expected to occur steadily, with approximately 43 percent of the buildup, or 11,500 Marines, is anticipated at the bases located in the Craven County Area. This is predicted to add $432 million a year in payroll to an already $2.85 billion yearly military payroll. The projected total growth for the area including the Marines, their family members/ dependents and civilian employees to support and serve the population, is 40,000 people over the next 5 years, significantly offsetting the impact of BRAC. If the 202K initiative is successful, the area will see population growth that might otherwise take decades to achieve. Because of a current shortage of on-base military housing, developers are scrambling to provide off base housing to upwards of 4,300 families, adding significantly to the area’s property tax base. The employment opportunities afforded by this potential growth are significant. Jobs in construction, utilities, education and the retail and services sectors are all likely to increase significantly. Finally, since the target age group for Marine recruitment is 17-to-22-year-olds, the area can expect

56

substantial increases in population among the younger demographic over the next five years.

• The presence of four military bases and increased spending due to the war effort are contributing both to employment growth and increases in personal income within the military communities of the Craven County area. As a result, the region’s total Personal Income grew at a faster pace (22%) than the statewide average (19.4%) between 2001 and 2005. In fact, the Personal Income growth in neighboring Onslow County (36.4%) was among the fastest growing areas in the nation.

• About 37% of Craven County citizens receive paychecks from the Fleet Readiness Center associated with MCAS Cherry Point. Also, about 25% of the workforce in Craven County is attributed to the Fleet Center. This is largest civilian payroll east of I-95.

Social Trends

• According to the 2005-2009 American Community Survey data, 88 percent of people 25 years and over had at least graduated from high school and 22 percent had a bachelor's degree or higher. Thirteen percent were dropouts, i.e. they were not enrolled in school and had not graduated from high school.

• The total school enrollment in Craven County was 22,000 in 2005-2009. Nursery school and kindergarten enrollment was 2,700 and elementary or high school enrollment was 14,000 children. College or graduate school enrollment was 5,800.

57

• Craven Community College has experienced an increase in curriculum students aged 15‐19 over the five years. The gender of continued education students has changed over the five years: 51.1% female (2003‐04) to 29.3% (2007‐08). It has had remained steady for curriculum students (around 61%). Distance Learning, as a method of instruction, has increased over the five years: from 28.9% (2003‐04) to 56.5% (2007‐08); while Traditional Classroom has decreased from 66.8% (2003‐04) to 42.2% (2007‐08).

• Craven County’s public schools enrollment has remained stable over the last five years.

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 15,275 15,318 15,384 15,463 15,334 15,334 15,287

Technology Trends

• The Craven County Wood Energy plant is a 45 MW biomass power plant located near New Bern, North Carolina. This plant, commissioned in 1990, utilizes wood wastes consisting of bark from pulp mills, sawdust from sawmills, chips that are a by-product of logging operations, and clean waste wood recovered from landfills. The plant uses approximately 540,000 tons of wood waste per year. The energy generated by this plant is equivalent to the energy needs of 30,000 homes. Current capacity of wood waste power plants in North Carolina is 330 MW. Most of this capacity is associated with “captive” plants operated by the large paper mills in the state.

• The Institute of Aeronautical Technology was established in Craven Community College in 2004 to provide workforce training and development for both civilian and military aviation maintenance community.

• Craven County saw increased utilization of technology in public schools with the number of students per internet connected PC improving from 3.6 in 2003-04 to 2.1 in 2008-09.

58

Data Sources

• Bureau of Labor Statistics (http://www.bls.gov/)

• Bureau of the Census (http://www.census.gov/)

• Craven County Economic Development Commission (http://www.yescraven.com/all.php)

• Department of Commerce, Division of Travel and Tourism. (http://www.nccommerce.com/en/TourismServices/)

• Economic Impact Report, Marine Corps Air Station Cherry Point. (http://www.usmc.mil/unit/mcascherrypoint/Pages/EA/EA.aspx)

• North Carolina Department of Public Instruction (http://www.ncpublicschools.org/)

• North Carolina Department of Transportation (http://www.ncdot.org/download/about/board/bot/meetingMinutes/2010/201007_Minutes.pdf

• North Carolina Office of State Budget and Management. (http://www.osbm.state.nc.us/)

• STATS Indiana (http://www.stats.indiana.edu/index.asp)

59

Implications and Recommendations

• Competition with four-year universities, for-profits, and other educational providers will escalate as the need for student enrollment revenue increases. Craven Community College must continuously ramp up marketing and recruitment efforts to maintain, and possibly increase, market share.

• To be successful in a highly competitive market, Craven Community College must leverage its capacity to be nimble and market responsive. Constantly assess the needs of students, industry, and the community and use this information to adapt degree and certificate programs and non-credit offerings to meet identified needs. These needs will not only be curricular but will include instructional delivery methods, length of term, time of day and day of week considerations.

• In the current economic environment, thriving community colleges are more likely to produce returning clients than alumni; students who successfully complete courses of study that lead to employment will return for additional workforce training. Effective teaching and advising through both virtual and traditional venues are essential for students to successfully complete programs of study in a timely manner.

• North Carolina has had an expanding population for several years and continues to anticipate growth that is well above average. Much of this growth is the result of net migration. Craven County is not an exception to this trend. The increasing population offers the opportunity to increase enrollments. However, this opportunity must be evaluated against institutional goals and current capacity, as well as the needs of potential students and occupational demand.

• The number of high school graduates in North Carolina will be rapidly increasing over the next eight years, outpacing the national average. These cohorts will likely be highly informed about occupational opportunities and will be seeking institutions that are accommodating to their schedules and learning styles. Postsecondary institutions should examine their capacity, program offerings, and course delivery methods in order to accommodate these students.

• North Carolina’s economy is undergoing rapid change, with traditional industries declining in importance. As with other regions of the country, these industries are being replaced with high-tech and more specialized service occupations. All three states are emerging as leaders in Green industries. Growth and development of majors and programs in areas related to the Green industries may attract more student applications because of increasing government funding and employment opportunities in this area.

• Across the state, there have recently been severe financial constraints on higher education as well as rapidly increasing tuition and fees. This, combined with rising fuel costs, availability of financial aid sufficient to cover perceived need, and uncertainty of the job market causes potential students concern and has

60

been leading even traditional-aged students to delay enrollment. Students will also increasingly question having to pay for unused services, expensive textbooks and course materials, non-transferable courses, or courses that are deemed unnecessary for degree completion. Reduce unnecessary expenses to students (e.g., textbooks that are not used in a class, courses taken due to poor advising) and provide justification for expenses beyond direct tuition costs.

• The region is one that is in significant flux. With the diverse array of environmental (“Inner Banks” phenomenon) and economic factors (aging workforce, in-migration due to retirement, etc.) currently influencing the region, combined with the potential future influencing factors (new business expansion/growth and military activity), economic planners at the local and regional level will have to collaborate in order to ensure a smooth transition to the approaching economic landscape. Decisions will have to be made about the region’s desired identity and the resources needed to pursue it. Both current and anticipated events will need to be addressed in order to assure an economy that is well-positioned for smooth operations.

• Education and training entities in the area should be encouraged to develop programs in those areas identified as showing greatest anticipated need. These include health care and social assistance, education, management, computers, architecture and engineering and legal occupations. Additional emphasis should be placed on the attainment of college degrees as most of these occupations require them.

• Students will come to Craven Community College with an increasingly broad spectrum of established social values, lifestyles, and mores. The College should continue to embrace individual differences while creating shared expectations within its community of learners. This is particularly important as it relates to standards of civility both inside and outside the classroom. An important component of retention is finding alignment between students’ values and those of the institution. Additionally, faculty and staff will need to be provided with adequate, ongoing training and resources to meet the needs of an increasingly diverse student population.

• Students will continue to “swirl” across institutions. This is especially true of students seeking workforce training and industry certifications -- areas in which community colleges have traditionally specialized. Colleges that leverage this trend will be able to attract students who are looking to complete a program of study and ultimately find related employment. Doing so will involve articulation processes that are accommodating to these students. Craven Community College should examine its mission and enrollment goals to see if this is a market niche to which the institution can be responsive. If so, application and articulations processes will need to scrutinized and adjusted to attract these students.

• The changing composition of the “family unit” will require expanded childcare options for students. Craven Community College may examine whether the early

61

childhood and education program are positioned to respond to this need while providing work and training opportunities for students enrolled in the program.

• For many students, the time to pursue desired coursework, certificates, and degrees will be increasingly limited as the demand from other life activities takes priority. Aggressively pursue the development and expansion of compressed semester offerings, one day per week class meetings, hybrid courses, and online courses and programs designed for primarily for part-time learners. Limit or eliminate the need for students to physically visit the campus in order transact business with the College and take advantage of needed services.

• Nationally, student participation in extracurricular activities, organizations, and non-required campus events has waned and this trend will likely continue. Creatively search for other means to engage students productively and connect them with the College, faculty, and their peers in ways that limit their time commitment and leverage asynchronous alternatives.

• There will be fierce competition in the online learner marketplace as for-profit educational providers (including large corporations and businesses) “ramp up” to attract online students or serve their own employees in-house. The cost of gaining and sustaining a competitive position in the e-learning arena will be high and may become increasingly out of reach for an individual community college. It is important to explore collaborative partnerships with other colleges and universities as well as local businesses and government.

• Increasingly higher education institutions are particularly concerned about programs associated with job functions that can be completed cost effectively remotely. Hence, it is important for higher education institutions to be diligent about monitoring US trends for transferring occupations offshore.

• Accustomed to resources such as Facebook, Twitter, and other social networking media, increasingly students will prefer online student services that are available 24/7. Craven Community College must consider this trend, finding the balance between offering ubiquitous, self-help services such as counseling, advising, orientation, and enrollment business transactions and emphasizing personal, face-to-face service and relationship building. The College will need to take time to assess and explore students’ expectations in this area.

• The military presence in the Craven County area is central to the economy of the region. Continue to partner with the local military and look for opportunities to provide and expand postsecondary education to military personnel and their families. Also continue to monitor and respond to the training needs of the civilian workforce that supports the local military.