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EPM Mkt Web Conference.ppt - Mac OS X Serverepdfiles.engr.wisc.edu/pdf_web_files/mees/Managing_Risk_in_Engine... · John Deere MAHLE Powertrain Mercury Marine ... 2 Durability 3000

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• An innovative combination of: • Cutting-edge, Web-based instruction

• Small and supportive cohort of engineers from around the world

• Flexible learning environment that also provides structure and support

• Top faculty from the UW-Madison College of Engineering and Engine Research Center

• 3.5-year program, 4 credit hours Fall and Spring semesters

• One-week residency each summer in Madison, Wisconsin

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Engine Design Project Management

Design and Mechanics

Thermo-dynamics Modeling Control and

Diagnostics Trend Analysis

10-15 Years Experience in Engine Development

3.5-Year MEES Program

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Internet-based Instruction

Attend a weekly Web-conference

Participate in online

discussion forums

Listen to recorded

instructional introduction

Download readings and assignments

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Cohort Learning Model

The same colleagues throughout

Limited class size

Supportive learning

community

Collaborate on group projects

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Big Dog Motorcycles BorgWarner, Inc. Briggs & Stratton Caterpillar Cummins Engine Co., Inc. Eaton Corporation Electro-Motive Diesel General Electric General Motors Hamilton Sundstrand Harley-Davidson Motor Co.

Honeywell Turbo TechnologiesIndian Railways Navistar International Corp. John Deere MAHLE Powertrain Mercury Marine MerCruiser Polaris Ricardo S&S Cycle, Inc. Toyota Technical Center

MEES students are experienced engineers from all over the engine industry:

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• Essential Skills for Engineering Productivity

• Analysis of Trends in Engines: Legislative Drives and Alternative Fuels

• Engine Project Management

• Analysis of Trends in Engines: Powertrain Technologies and Manufacturing Constraints

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• Thermal Systems Engineering

• Engine Fluid Dynamics

• Engine Performance and Combustion

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• Engine Systems and Controls

• Perspectives in Engine Modeling

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• Engine Design I

• Engine Design II

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• Now accepting applications for class beginning August 2010

• Applications available online

mees.engr.wisc.edu

Deadline: June 15, 2010Applications are processed first come, first served.

Apply soon to secure your spot!

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Dr. Sandra Ashford, MEES Program Director

[email protected]

(608) 890.2026

Gary Henderson, Director of Student Services

[email protected]

(608) 262.0133

Managing Risk in Engine Projects

Masters in Engineering Engine SystemsMasters in Engineering - Engine Systems

B i P iBrian Price

University of Wisconsin - Madison

My Backgroundy g

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

MEES Programg

Master of Engineering in Engine Systems

The Master of Engineering in Engine Systems (MEES) degree is designed for early to mid-career engineers who are assuming new roles and responsibilities in leading engine development projects. Engineers p g g p p j gfrom companies that design and manufacture internal combustion engines of all sizes—from lawn mowers to diesel ship engines—will benefit.

Engine Project ManagementEngine DesignThermal Systems Engineering

Engine Fluid DynamicsAnalysis of Trends in EnginesPerspectives in Engine ModellingThermal Systems Engineering

Engine Performance & CombustionPerspectives in Engine ModellingEngine Systems & Control

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

Engine Project Managementg j g

Quality Cost TimeScope

Integration

Controls

Resources

P l

Risk

People

Communication

Contracts

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

Contracts

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

Engine Development Costsg p

Company Engine DevelopmentCost

AnnualProduction

GM L850 L4 $1 300M 800 000GM L850 L4 $1,300M 800,000Chrysler V6 (2.7, 3.2, 3.5 liter) $625M 640,000Mercedes Benz Modular V6/V8 $1,200M 300,000Mercedes Benz C Class L4 $115M CancelledGM Europe Family Zero L3/L4 $468M 500,000PSA EW Petrol & DW Diesel $543M 2,200,000$ , ,Fiat FIRE L4 1.3 liter $294M 365,000Jaguar AJ V8 $305M 50,000H d i DI Di l 2 8 lit $160M 200 000Hyundai DI Diesel 2.8 liter $160M 200,000

Source: AIC Data

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

Project Delay Costsj y

Daily L h

= $750k-$5M l tLaunch

Delay$5M lost

profitSource - Product Development in Auto Industry 1987

y

= 20 100%Fast TTM

= 20-100% Price

iSource - Time Based Competition 1991

premium

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

Example PM Performancep

UK Engine Design ConsultancyUK Engine Design Consultancy– 146 projects sample over 5 years

T t l d l $170M– Total order value >$170M– Project range $5k - $37M

40 C– 40 Customers– 15 Countries

88 projects overbudget43 projects >20% overbudgetp j g

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

Why Projects Faily j1. Delivering the Wrong Project

– Poorly defined requirements & specs– No trade-off priority

Scope creep– Scope creep

2. Passive Risk Management– Reactive risks management All easily fixedg– No risk mitigation plan

3. Communications Void

All easily fixed – so why aren’t they?

– Unexpected risks

4. Poor Project Management5. Inadequate Timing (too long/short)

6. Poor People Skills

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

Source: Standish Report, Chaos Report

Project ‘X’j

Outboard engine for future emissionsOutboard engine for future emissions requirements

Hi h P f– High Performance– Low Cost

N T h l– New Technology– DFMA

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

Project Environmentj

Performance defines marketPerformance defines market– Mercury History

2 S f2-Strokes dominate performance market– Strong 2-Stroke engineering

Engines sold by BHP, not displacementLargest 4-Stroke OB – Honda 120HPLargest 4 Stroke OB Honda 120HPProposed emission legislation uncertain

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

Project Definition Processj

Comprehensive Request for ProposalComprehensive Request for Proposal– Defined main project/product attributes

CConsultant proposals– 5 consultant partners (Automotive)– Detailed feasibility studies conducted– Concentration on meeting specifications

• Cost, modularity, power etc.

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

Outboard Enginesg

Outboard Engine Performance

0.7

0.5

0.6

ce (H

P/lb

)

0 2

0.3

0.4

c P

erfo

rman

c

0

0.1

0.2

Spe

cific

00 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Power BHP

2 Strokes

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

2 Strokes

Outboard Enginesg

Outboard Engine Performance

0.7

0.5

0.6

ce (H

P/lb

)

0.3

0.4

c P

erfo

rman

c

0

0.1

0.2

Spe

cific

00 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Power BHP

4 Strokes 2 Strokes

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

4 Strokes 2 Strokes

Outboard Enginesg

Outboard Engine Performance

0.7

0.5

0.6

ce (H

P/lb

)

0 2

0.3

0.4

c P

erfo

rman

c

0

0.1

0.2

Spe

cific

00 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Power BHP

4 Strokes 2 Strokes Project X

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

4 Strokes 2 Strokes Project X

Project Definition Issuesj

Proposal Request almost too completeProposal Request almost too complete– Project over constrained

f ( / )Missed dominant feature - (HP/lb)Lack of available benchmarks– Largest competitor 4-stroke 120HP

Fixed views of attainable configurationsFixed views of attainable configurations– Fixation with 2-stroke technology

Result: 18 month project delay

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

Top Three Project Risk Issuesp j

Scope

Risk Management

Communications

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

Project Management Elementsj g

Quality Cost TimeScope

Integration

Controls

Resources

P l

Risk

People

Communication

Contracts

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

Contracts

Defining the Project Scopeg j p

Project ScopeProject Scope– A definition of the end result or mission of the project—a

product or service for the client/customer—in specific, p oduc o se ce o e c e /cus o e spec c,tangible, and measurable terms.

Purpose of the Scope Statement – To clearly define the deliverable(s) for the end user.– To focus the project on successful completion of its goals.– To be used by the project owner and participants as a

planning tool and for measuring project success.planning tool and for measuring project success.

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

Scope Control DocumentspScope Statementsp– Also called statements of work (SOW)

Project Charterj– Can contain an expanded version of scope statement– A document authorizing the project manager to initiate

and lead the project.

Project Contract– Commitment of team and stakeholders to objective

deliverables

Project Variation ControlProject Variation Control– Control of project scope from expanding over time due to

changing requirements, specifications, and priorities.

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

g g q , p , p

PM ‘Iron Triangle’g

0Quality

Scope

C t TiCost Time

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

PM ‘Iron Triangle’g

0Scope

Quality

C t TiCost Time

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

Establishing Project Prioritiesg j

Causes of Project Trade offsCauses of Project Trade-offs– Shifts in the relative importance of criterions related to

cost, time, and performance parameterscos , e, a d pe o a ce pa a e e s• Budget–Cost• Schedule–Time• Performance–Scope

Managing Priorities of Project Trade-offs– Constrain: a parameter is a fixed requirement.– Enhance: optimizing a parameter over others.

Accept red cing (or not meeting) a parameter– Accept: reducing (or not meeting) a parameter requirement.

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

Project Priority Matrixj y

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

FIGURE 4.2

Project Trade-off’sj

Steps in ProcessSteps in Process– Identify key characteristics

U d t d h li it ( it d t d– Understand change limits (magnitude, trends, sensitivity, impacts etc.)Define prioritization– Define prioritization

– Model optionsDecide!– Decide!

– Document rationaleCOMMUNICATE– COMMUNICATE

– Review

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

‘Iron Triangle’: Constrain, Enhance, Acceptg , , p

Constrain0Quality

Constrain

ScopeEnhance

CostAccept

Cost Time

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

Sample Project ControlProject Priority Listing

p j

Geneset Engine with water cooled catalyst for Marine Application

Class Priority Topic Notes

Prioritize items

Identif specific1 Emission Tier 3 for MY2008: EPA Phase 2;CARB Tier 2

4 Fuel ConsumptionVery few boaters are concerned about fuel consumption. There is no mandatory standard similar to CAFÉ standard for automotive. CO & CO2 are not currently mandated by

Identify specific requirement

Regulatory

1 Safety

y yregulation but boaters where complaining about headaches and few deaths or near death have been reported due to carbon monoxide inhalationNoise was not such a big concern as the geneset is buried on the bottom of the boat and5 Noise geneset is buried on the bottom of the boat and once the hatch is closed the noise and vibration is less of a concern

1 Governing 3% speed/voltage regulation from full load to no load

1 Cool to touch All exposed surfaces have to be cool to touch

Group logically

Quantify necessary factors – don’t over

constrain

Market Entry

3 Engine Displacement 1.2 L3 Engine Configuration Overhead Valve, V configuration3 Number of cylinders 42 Durability 3000 hrs of operation at rated RPM3 P 15 KW @ 3600 RPM

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

3 Power 15 KW @ 3600 RPM4 Cost $1,500

Project Management Elementsj g

Quality Cost TimeScope

Integration

Controls

Resources

P l

Risk

People

Communication

Contracts

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

Contracts

PM Maturity by Industryy y y

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

The Risk ManagementManagement

Process

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

FIGURE 7.2

Partial Risk Profile for Product Development Project

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

FIGURE 7.3

Impact ScalesImpact Scales

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

Risk Assessment Form

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

FIGURE 7.4

Risk Severity Matrixy

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

FIGURE 7.5

Risk Response Planningp g

After identifying and quantifying risks youAfter identifying and quantifying risks, you must decide how to respond to them

Five main strategies:– Risk mitigation– Risk transference

Ri k id– Risk avoidance– Risk sharing– Risk retentionRisk retention

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

Baseline and Tracking Gantt Charts

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

Project ScheduleControl ChartControl Chart

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

Project Management Elementsj g

Quality Cost TimeScope

Integration

Controls

Resources

P l

Risk

People

Communication

Contracts

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

Contracts

Communications FactorsRelevantRelevantDoes it directly relate to the recipients needs?Does it directly relate to the recipients needs?

AppropriateIs it in a format/language that is appropriate to the recipient?

AppropriateIs it in a format/language that is appropriate to the recipient?appropriate to the recipient?appropriate to the recipient?

TimelyTimelyTimelyIs it up to date/valid?

TimelyIs it up to date/valid?

AccessibleDo the recipients have access to the right data at the right time?

AccessibleDo the recipients have access to the right data at the right time?

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

data at the right time?data at the right time?

Communication Tools

Mail Instant MessagingMailE-mailNotice boards

Instant MessagingNewslettersReportsNotice boards

Walking aboutVisual planning

ReportsProject websiteLunch discussionVisual planning

Cooler talkP t it t

Lunch discussionOffsite team buildingP t tiPost-it notes

Blogs/forumsPresentations……

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

Communication Plan:

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

Communications HierarchyyExample

communicationscommunications tools

High Level(Management)

Dashboard

Intermediate Website Project t(Stakeholders)

Website reports

Detail(Project Team)

Project plan

Issues database Task lists

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

Project Management Elementsj g

Quality Cost TimeScope

Integration

Controls

Resources

P l

Risk

People

Communication

Contracts

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

Contracts

Project Management Skillsj g

Dealing with AmbiguityDealing with Ambiguity– Management expectations, team morale….

/CManaging Risk/Change– Time-to-market, unknowns….

Balancing Conflicting Pressures– Legislation, politics, scope…..g p p

Managing Complex Environment– Outsourcing dispersed teams matrix structuresOutsourcing, dispersed teams, matrix structures….

Delivering Quality/Cost/Time

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

Case Study Presentationsy

Examples of industrial practiceExamples of industrial practice

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

Course Philosophyp yEngage & Share!

BestPractice

Experience

EPM

Tools &Techniques

PublishedMaterialsTechniques

Engine Project ManagementUniversity of Wisconsin - Madison

Dr. Sandra Ashford, MEES Program Director

[email protected]

(608) 890.2026

Gary Henderson, Director of Student Services

[email protected]

(608) 262.0133

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