ERSTFLoads and Resources Balance

Clyde Loutan, Senior Advisor – Renewable Energy Integration, CAISO

EPRI Dallas Regional OfficeLas Colinas Tower II

February 3 & 4

RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY2

Loads and Resources Team

Subgroup Lead Company Email

Clyde Loutan CAISO cloutan@caiso.com

Subgroup Members

Amir Najafzadeh NERC amir.najafzadeh@nerc.net

Brendan Kirby Kirby Consulting kirbybj@ieee.org

Dave Devereaux IESO david.devereaux@ieso.ca

Ed Scott Duke Energy edward.scott2@duke-energy.com

Jay Ruberto First Energy jrubert@firstenergycorp.com

Layne Brown WECC lbrown@wecc.biz

Michael McMullen MISO mmcmullen@misoenergy.org

Michael Milligan NREL michael.milligan@nrel.gov

Noha Abdel-Karim NERC noha.karim@nerc.net

Pooja Shah NERC pooja.shah@nerc.net

Ron Carlsen Southern Company rlcarlse@southernco.com

Todd Lucas Southern company telucas@southernco.comTom Siegrist Brickfield, Burchette, Ritts & Stone, P.C. tom.siegrist@bbrslaw.com Dariush Shirmohammadi California Wind Energy Association Dariush@shirconsultants.comAidan Tuohy EPRI atuohy@epri.com

RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY3

CAISO: 1-Hour Upward Ramping Needs

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2011_1h 3,935 3,630 3,271 2,897 2,951 2,637 3,137 2,933 3,004 3,514 3,746 4,5062012_1hr 3,875 3,394 3,428 2,959 2,736 2,606 2,695 2,766 3,143 3,240 5,358 4,3522013_1hr 4,524 3,557 3,224 2,893 3,072 3,401 2,723 2,380 2,964 3,406 3,759 4,5672014_1hr 3,862 3,374 3,064 3,653 2,527 3,128 2,446 2,320 2,848 3,012 3,192 4,2352018_1hr 5,790 6,545 6,298 5,459 4,515 4,220 3,976 4,774 5,999 6,084 6,794 7,420

0

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8,000

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Maximum 1-Hour Upward Ramps

RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY4

CAISO: 3-Hour Upward Ramping Needs

Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2011_3hr 6,766 6,067 5,688 5,942 6,732 7,822 7,702 7,251 6,767 6,433 7,098 2012_3hr 7,173 7,028 5,774 6,278 5,543 6,367 7,410 6,591 6,422 6,062 7,2112013_3hr 7,171 6,736 5,881 6,096 8,745 6,426 6,024 6,591 6,609 7,355 8,3432014_3hr 6,170 5,755 5,363 6,394 6,177 6,559 5,879 7,862 5,952 5,844 6,4942018_3hr 15,048 14,100 11,332 11,022 10,769 10,390 12,143 14,174 12,509 15,190 17,179

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Maximum 3-Hour Upward Ramps

RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY5

CAISO: 1-Hour Downward Ramping Needs

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2011_1h -2,823 -2,939 -2,751 -2,758 -3,374 -3,771 -3,994 -3,920 -4,758 -3,267 -2,719 -3,2522012_1hr -3,118 -7,240 -2,940 -3,056 -3,458 -3,457 -4,049 -3,919 -4,220 -3,972 -4,547 -3,0432013_1hr -3,236 -2,663 -3,004 -3,194 -4,043 -3,820 -4,398 -4,140 -3,926 -3,026 -2,849 -3,0442014_1hr -2,506 -2,510 -2,601 -3,554 -4,170 -3,728 -3,826 -3,830 -4,248 -3,453 -2,426 -2,7952018_1hr -4,014 -4,078 -5,344 -4,593 -4,901 -4,672 -4,955 -5,316 -5,659 -4,997 -4,638 -4,590

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Maximum 1-Hour Downward Ramps

RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY6

CAISO: 3-Hour Downward Ramping Needs

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2011_3hr -7,091 -7,118 -6,711 -6,690 -8,276 -9,248 -10,362 -9,919 -11,684 -8,162 -6,900 -8,202 2012_3hr -7,083 -7,363 -6,900 -7,472 -8,472 -7,734 -9,804 -10,775 -10,195 -10,256 -6,865 -7,6802013_3hr -7,600 -6,794 -6,806 -7,769 -9,908 -10,357 -10,023 -10,438 -10,136 -6,765 -6,643 -7,2272014_3hr -6,258 -6,263 -6,350 -9,330 -10,538 -9,395 -9,813 -10,128 -10,981 -8,996 -6,346 -7,1132018_3hr -8,815 -9,106 -9,086 -9,418 -12,068 -10,684 -11,676 -12,871 -13,143 -10,223 -8,541 -9,572

-14,000

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Maximum 3-Hour Downward Ramps

RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY7

BC Hydro 1-Hour Ramps

RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY8

BC Hydro 3-Hour Ramps

RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY9

Duke Energy Florida (DEF)

RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY10

Duke Energy Carolinas (DEC)

RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY11

Duke Energy Progress (DEP)

RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY12

Measure 6Ramping Capability Measures

The historical and projected maximum one-hour up, one-hour down, three-hour up, and three-hour down net load ramps (actual load less production from VERs) using one minute data.

Year One-hour Up One-hour down Three-hour Up Three-hour Down

2011 6166 -6325 11714 -100962012 5560 -4376 10385 -96142013 4192 -4521 9034 -90722014 4423 -3868 9911 -92362015 4423 -3868 9911 -92362016 4423 -3868 9911 -92362017 4423 -3868 9911 -9236

YearWind

Capacity, MW PV, MW2011 0 02012 0 02013 202 462014 404 502015 404 11822016 654 11822017 654 1670

Southern Company

RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY13

Southern Company

RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY14

Southern Company

Todd Lucas

RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY15

PJM

RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY16

PJM

Ken Schuyler

RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY17

NERC ERSTF: Data Request Responses, Measure 3&1

Julia Matevosyan, PhDSr. Planning EngineerResource AdequacyERCOTjmatevosjana@ercot.com

Measure 3, summary BA/ISO NSG,

20142014, %penetration

NSG 2017

2017, %penetration

Inertia Trendingdown?

ERCOT 11,066 39.4% 21,130 75% YesISO NE 3,155* 10% 5,591* 22.5% YesIESO 4,075* 16.3% 5,607* 22% SomewhatMISO 9,653 16% 13,028 21% SomewhatBC Hydro 487.2 13.2% 667.2 12.1% No (too little

NSG)Southern BA 454 1.1% 2,324 1.8% No (new NSG is

mainly PV)Duke: DEF 0 0% 0 0% No (No NSG)Duke: DEC 136 N/A 232 N/A No (too little

NSG)Duke: DEP 320 N/A 495 N/A No (too little NSG,

PV)

* Includes HVDC import and renewables

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.8

3

3.2

3.4x 10

5

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Kin

etic

ene

rgy,

MW

s

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Installed

Capacity, MW 9,116 9,452 10,034 10,570 11,066 19,443 20,630 21,130

Max Pwind/Pload 25.5% 27.4% 29.8% 35.8% 39.4% 69% 73.2% 75%

Pwind, MW 6,483 6,772 7,247 8,773 9,699 17,041 18,082 18,520

Pwind/Pwind_inst 71% 72% 72% 83% 88% 88% 88% 88%

Pload, MW 25,427 24,745 24,328 24,488 24,617 24,700 24,700 24,700

Historic SIR and Future Projections, ERCOT Example

at max wind penetration, historic

at max wind penetration, projected based on SGIAs

∗ at max wind penetration, projected based on SGIA&FCs

ISO NE

4

IESO

2011 2012 2013 2014* 2015 2016 2017 Installed Capacity (HVDC line

Capability included), MW 2955 2955 3452 4075 5607 5607 5607

Max Pwind/Pload 11.2% 14.3% 14.6% 16.3% 22% 22% 22%

Pwind(HVDC Imports included), MW 1794 2560 3114 2735 4055 4055 4055

Pwind/Pinstall 62% 87% 90% 72% 72% 72% 72%

Pload, MW 16084 17937 21335 16822 18045 18045 18045

Minimum Market Demand 12605 11974 12762 12741

Date HE max(γ(t))

2011/11/25 14 11.2%

2012/03/28 7 14.3%

2013/11/18 18 14.6%

2014/04/10 6 16.3%

5

MISO

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Installed Capacity of Wind MW 10,628 12,270 13,035 13,726 15,476 17,001 18,526

Load MW 49,190 40,191 47,263 59,119 59,711 60,308 60,911

Wind MW 7,665 9,906 9,705 9,653 10,883 11,956 13,028

Max Pwind/Pload 16% 25% 21% 16% 18% 20% 21%

Wind Production in % of Installed

Capacity72.12% 80.73% 74.45% 70.32% 70.32% 70.32% 70.32%

Max Load MW 100,795 94,468 92,034 111,318 48,827 48,352 47,883

6

BC Hydro

Historical Projection2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Installed Capacity (Wind Turbine), MW

246 388.2 388.2 487.2 487.2 487.2 667.2

Non-synch gen penetration peak, ɣ(tmax)

5.06%(Apr)

5.96%(Nov)

8.86%(Apr)

13.21%(Sep)

8.80% 8.80% 12.05%

Pwind, MW 199 302 330 336 336 336 460Wind production in % of installed capacity, ɳwind(tmax)

81% 78% 85.0% 69.0% 69.0% 69.0% 69.0%

BCH Load, MW(excluding import/export)

5422 5584 4914 4463 N/A N/A N/A

Pload, MW 3938 5075 3731 2542 3822 3822 3822

Net Load, MW 3739 4773 3211 2206 3486 3486 3362 7

Duke: DEP

Historical and Projected NSG Installation and penetrations at ϒ(tmax)

2014 2015 2016 2017PV Installed cap

320 447 712 712

PV @ ϒ(tmax) 222 309 495 495PV % @ ϒ(tmax)

69.38% 69.05% 69.63% 69.58%

9

Southern BA

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Installed Capacity Non-synch, MW 0 0 248 454 1586 1836 2324

Non-synch. gen. penetration peak 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 1.1% 1.1% 1.8% 1.8%

Installed Capacity Wind, MW 0 0 202 404 404 654 654

Pwind, MW 0 0 44 202 202 325 325Wind production in % of installed capacity 0.0% 0.0% 21.8% 50.0% 50.0% 49.7% 49.7%

Pload, MW 17637 16691 17974 18422 18422 18422 18422

10

• How difficult for a BA to gather this data?

• How difficult would it be for a BA to continue tracking this data?

• Did you see any benefit in collecting this data?

Questions

11

Measure 1&2 WECC

Date WSM Cases

System MVA

SIR, MWs Average H Comment

1-Jul-14 216,536 821,212 3.79 WECC Peak

2-Nov-14 162,444 593,100 3.65 WEC Min

early Nov, 2014 185,777 681,534 3.67

19-Nov-14 196,883 731,101 3.71

WECC Base Cases

2015 HS4A1 253,596 932,130 3.68 2015 Heavy Summer

2015 HWA1 228,247 851,119 3.73 2015 Heavy Winter

12

Measure 1, WECC

13

• CBR adjustment ratio, is statistically determined ratio between Point C and Point B frequency deviations.

• Higher CBR will result in higher IFRO

• Even if system frequency response is unchanged, but system inertia is getting low, the difference between Point C and Point B is increasing.

• This will result in higher IFRO for next year

• Disadvantage of this metric: it’s reactive, historic trending and look ahead measure is needed to introduce proper incentives for the right resources.

Will IFRO capture decreasing SIR?

14