Esther Spanjer, M-Systems

Competing Technologies: HDD vs FlashCompeting Technologies: HDD vs Flash

• Flash Advantages

Volume/GB

Mass/GB

Shock resistance

Power Consumption

• HDD Advantages

Total Capacity

$/GB

Read/Write Speed

No re-writing limits

John Buttress,IDC

Key Specs: How Good is ‘Good Enough?’• Example: MP3 Players with HDD

– Read ahead into DRAM for 20~32MB (~6sec), then power turned off.– = Non-op shock ruggedness, and power consumption minimized.

1.0” HDD avg. usage specs

are in-class.

1.0” HDD Flash Memory

Performance

Read avg (MB/s) 5.0 4.0

Write avg (MB/s) 5.2 5.0

Power (mW)

Idle 60 2.9

Read (256K blocks) 577 82

Write (256K blocks) 575 217

Ruggedness

Non-Operating Shock 2000g 2000g

Operating Shock 200g 2000g

Rewrites Unlimited2 Limited: 100~300K cycles

Notes: 1)Source: JP Morgan, Oct-04.2)HDD manufacturers do not specify a limit to the number of times bits can be re-written.3)Above are industry average specifications – individual performance by manufacturer/product may vary.

Andy Higginbotham, Western Digital

Charles Lee, INTEL

• Visibility for scaling of floating gate clear to 32 nm

• Forms high “hurdle” for new technologies to leap

1986/1.5µm

1988/1.0µm

1991/0.8µm

1993/0.6µm

1996/0.4µm

1998/0.25µm

2000/0.18µm

2002/0.13µm

2004/90nm

Moore’s Law” Continues with Floating Gate NVM

2006/65nm

2008/45nm

90 nm cell is 1/476th of 1.5 µm cell

Flash Can Make HDDs Better Too

• Hybrid Drive for Longhorn chipset

• Digital Consumer Ideas for HDD/Flash Synergies

Microsoft, WinHEC 2004 Don Barnetson, Samsung

System Cost vs. # of MB

$1

$10

$100

$1,000

$10,000

$100,000

$1,000,000

128M

B25

6MB

512M

B1G

B2G

B4G

B8G

B16

GB

32G

B64

GB

128G

B25

6GB

512G

B1T

B2T

B4T

B

Tota

l Cos

t Flash

HDD

10x10x

100x100x

Jim Handy, SEMICO

Format Miniaturization

• Smaller, sub-Pico sliders

– Challenging flyheight parameters

– Refined flexure designs, capabilities

– Improved processing, robustness

• Smaller disks and actuator system

– Higher effective stiffnesses

– Secondary focus on windage, resonance

Jeffry Bennin, Hutchinson

Maximized Box Capacity…

• High areal density heads

– ESD robustness

• Anti-static coatings

• Low resistance slider/preamp grounds

– Transmission line performance

• Impedance matched lead designs

• Low loss materials and designs

• Active system components

– High lead counts for dynamic fly-height

actuators

Jeffry Bennin, Hutchinson

Summary and Conclusions

• Today, 1 Inch HDD Offer Best $/GB, 1/3 X Flash

• NAND Flash: Rapid Technology Progress, AD Exceeds Moore’s Law

• Future $/GB Flash Has Potential Toward Lower $/GB But Continued Rapid Technology Progress In Flash Doubtful

• HDD Must Accelerate AD Growth, Flash Must Increase Rewrite Cyles

• >1.0 Inch FF HDD, High Risk Competitive With Flash, But Mobile Phone Volumes Worth The Risk

• Same Component Technology (Heads and Media) High Volumes Equals Low Cost

• In The Mobile/Consumer Market, Flash and SFF HDD Will Continue To Coexist

Ed Grochowski