Estimates of COVID-19 incidence in England

Study Data cut-off date Estimate of daily incidence

REACT-1 Study, round 6 interim results 25th October 2020 86,300 – 105,800

ONS COVID-19 Infection Study 23rd October 2020 38,500 – 79,200

SPI-M, consensus statement 27th October 2020 50,000 – 63,000

Source: REACT-1 study, interim round 6, ONS COVID-19 Infection Survey, England, 30 October 2020, SPI-M: SAGE minutes, 29 October 2020

R estimates over time for the UK

Source: SAGE minutes, published on GOV.UK, and www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk

R estimate (shown as

range)

WINTER SCENARIOS FROM EARLY WORKING ANALYSISEngland daily deaths if no changes in policy or behaviour

Source: SPI-M Preliminary Long Term Scenarios week commencing 9 October

Early SPI-M working analysisThese curves represent scenarios from a number of academic modelling groups.THESE ARE SCENARIOS - NOT PREDICTIONS OR FORECASTS

Source: SPI-M Medium Term Projections 28 October

England - daily hospital admissions to date with SPI-M medium term projection for the next six weeks

Plots on slides 4 and 5 have been amended after an error was found in the interquartile ranges for SPI-M medium term projections. This does not affect the insights that can be taken from these analysis.

Source: SPI-M Medium Term Projections 28 October

England - daily deaths to date with SPI-M medium term projection for the next six weeks

Plots on slides 4 and 5 have been amended after an error was found in the interquartile ranges for SPI-M medium term projections. This does not affect the insights that can be taken from these analysis.

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

England - V beds

SPI-M Combined projection

Combined projection 50% range

Wave one peak bedusage

Source: SPI-M modelling provided 29/10/20. ‘V’ bed demand numbers are not separately modelled and are based on current ratios to all beds, which may result in discontinuity between historical data and forecasts. Currently available beds assumes max 95% G&A bed occupancy and 90% ‘V’ occupancy.

6 |Current confirmed Covid positive inpatients as reported by providers as 0800 29 October 2020.

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

20 03 17 01 15 29 12 26 10 24 07 21 04 18 02 16 30 13 27 11

Mar Apr Apr MayMayMay Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Oct Nov NovDec

England - all acute beds

SPI-M Combined projection

Combined projection 50% range

Surge capacity and postponing some hospital services

Current number of COVID-19 inpatients (acutes):

Exceeds peak on circa 20/11/2020Exceeds currently available beds on circa 23/11/2020

Exceeds surge capacity and capacity freed up from postponing some hospital services on circa 04/12/2020

20 03 17 01 15 29 12 26 10 24 07 21 04 18 02 16 30 13 27 11Mar Apr Apr MayMayMay Jun Jun Jul Jul Aug Aug Sep Sep Oct Oct Oct Nov Nov Dec

Current available capacity

England new SPI-M combined projection bed usage