Estimating cannabinoids sold from marijuana sales data in ...adai.uw.edu/pubs/pdf/2018THCdifficultiesandinitialsimpleestimate.pdfConcentrates GramsSold TotalTHC THC CBD THCA RetailProductName

Estimating cannabinoids sold from marijuana sales data inWashington state

Watch me pull a number out of my hat

Jason Williams1

with assistance from Caleb Banta-Green1 & Dan Burgard2

1Alcohol & Drug Abuse InstituteUniversity of Washington2Chemistry Department

University of Puget Sound

20 March 2018 / ADAI Brown Bag

Jason Williams (ADAI) Measuring THC 1 / 42

Acknowledgments

Thanks to:The Washington State Dedicated Marijuana Fund for research at the University ofWashington for funding supportLooking Glass Analytics for flattening the database


Today’s outline

1 ProblemsWhy would we want to know how much THC or other cannabinoids are being sold?How it should workSo what’s the problem?

2 SolutionsWhat do we need?Our approach

3 Results!King County, June 2016Pierce County, June 2016


Outline





Why measure cannabinoids?Important questions

Policy analysis To what extent does the THC sold via licensed stores account for the THCmetabolite found in wastewater, implying displacement of the illegal market?

Marketing studies To what extent is the market in Washington moving to higher potencyproducts?

Microeconomics What is the price elasticity of THC potency?Public health How much THC is out there, and where?


This should be easyWe have the data...

Washington state Liquor and Cannabis Board (LCB) mandates use of a seed-to-saledatabase to

Track every plantFollow each plant as it is refined and turned into productsTrack testing results for every productAll to demonstrate products are not being diverted.Also, to facilitate excise tax collection, etc.


This should be easyWe have the data...

Washington state Liquor and Cannabis Board (LCB) mandates use of a seed-to-saledatabase to

Track every plantFollow each plant as it is refined and turned into productsTrack testing results for every productAll to demonstrate products are not being diverted.Also, to facilitate excise tax collection, etc.


Outline





How it should workAlcohol example

Item Packages Sold Package Count ABV% Volume Per Count (L) Alcohol (L)

Goodstuff Vodka 1 1 40 1.75 0.7Sawbuck Red 2 1 15.2 .75 0.228Lily White 1 1 13.8 .75 0.1035Crusher Lager 1 6 5.2 .355 0.11076


How it should workAlcohol example

Total liters of pure alcohol sold =For each product i , L of Product× L of Alcohol

L of Product =∑ni=1 Packages Soldi × Package Counti × Volume Per Counti ×ABVi

100


How it should workTHC example

With marijuana, you have to:Account for different measures of size:

GramsServings per container, or package countVolume

Match potency unit of measure to product measurePercent by weightmg per servingPercent by volume


How it should workTHC example

Determined by:Manufacturer Lab LCB Store

Item Package Count (Lfor liquids)

THCPotency

PotencyUOM

Packages/Grams Sold

THC (mg)

HazyNut Brownies 1 5.05 mg/unit 2 10.1HazyNut Brownies 10 5.05 mg/unit 3 151.5VapoRide Concentrate 0.1 75 mg/L 3 22.5Hop No Hop Infusion 0.25 10 mg/L 2 5.0Jumbo Java K-Cups 6 4.85 mg/unit 1 29.1Slow Dive Sativa 1 24.56 % by

weight0.5 122.8

Emotion Lotion 5oz tube 0.148 300 mg/L 1 44.4

UOM: unit ofmeasure


Outline





So what’s the problem?Solid edibles

PackagesSold TotalTHC THC CBD THCA RetailProductName WholesaleProductName

5 4.58 4.36 4.43 0.24 Oakor 1:1 Slips 1:1 Slips




5 4.58 4.36 4.43 0.24 Oakor 1:1 Slips 1:1 SlipsAssuming this is 4.58mg of THC per slip, did this sale amount to 22.9mg, or 458?




1 0.006 0.06 0.05 0 Catapult Decaf Individual Catapult Decaf Individual1 0.11 0.06 0.05 0 Catapult Decaf Individual Catapult Decaf Individual1 0.9 0.9 0.85 0 RCC010D Dark Choc CBD 3-

PackRCC010D Dark Choc CBD 3-Pack

1 0.9 0.9 0.85 0 EH 4.20 Bar 3pk CBD DarkChoc. 30mg

RCC010D Dark Choc CBD 3-Pack

1 0.91 0.91 0 0 RCZ010 Dark Choc Hazelnut RCZ010 Dark Choc Hazelnut2 0.92 0.91 0.01 0 Peanut Butter Cup Peanut Butter Cup


So what’s the problem?

SAMPLE TYPE

CSA LAB ID NO.

SAMPLE ID NO.

LOT NO.

MOISTURE CONTENT

CLIENT

10.37 mg / g

Flower

D06250687

NA

NA

GFarmaLabs

EXPIRATION DATE

TEST METHODS

WATER ACTIVITY

RECEIVED ON

2/28/2017

2/24/2017

3/29/2017

Blue DiamondSTRAIN

DATE OF ANALYSIS

HPLC-002

0.3719.5 %

ISO / IEC 17025:2005 ACCREDITATED COMPANYAccreditation No. 73653

Certificate No. L12-227

A8599CMedical Cannabis

CANNABINOID CONCENTRATION (mg/g) PERCENT by MASS

Total Cannabinoids

string87

Delta 9 Tetrahydrocannabinol 10.37D9 THC 1.04%Delta 9 Tetrahydrocannabinol A 220.22D9 THCA 22.02%Cannabidiol <MDLCBD 0.00%Cannabidiol Acid <MDLCBDA 0.00%Cannabinol <MDLCBN 0.00%Cannabigerol <MDLCBG 0.00%Cannabichromene 0.38CBC 0.04%Delta 8 Tetrahydrocannabinol <MDLD8 THC 0.00%Cannabigerol Acid 5.48CBGA 0.55%Tetrahydrocannabivarin <MDLTHCV 0.00%

Yeast & Mold CountAerobic Bacteria CountTotal Coliform EnumerationBile Tolerant Gram - Negative Bacteria

SalmonellaE. coli

NOT REQUESTEDNOT REQUESTEDNOT REQUESTEDNOT REQUESTEDNOT REQUESTEDNOT REQUESTED

23.65 %




1 0 5.12 0 0 BLACKBERRY chocolate 10HBB - HYBRID BlackberryChoc 5mg x 2/pack (10mg)

1 0 0 0 0 FW Hot Cocoa Mocha Catapult Hot Cocoa Java Sin-gle Serving

1 0.03 0.03 0 0 FW Hot Chocolate Catapult Hot Cocoa Java Sin-gle Serving

2 0 8.4 0 0 Combo_TRIPLE_30mg Combo_TRIPLE_30mg2 0.2 0.2 2.16 0 Capsule CBD 10:1- 10mg (10

Serve)Capsule CBD 10:1- 10mg (10Serve)

1 0 9.41 9.41 0 Tomato Basil Soup 1 Box Tomato Basil Soup 1 Box


So what’s the problem?Liquid edibles


1 5.12 5.12 0.45 0 SM 50mg Dank Drizzle Dank Drizzle1 5.12 5.12 0.45 0 SM 100mg Dank Drizzle Dank Drizzle1 0.0112 0.0112 0 0 OC SENSI Northwest Berry

100mgNorthwest Berry Lemonade,16oz, 100mg

4 0.98 0.95 0 0.02 ZootBlast - 30mg Single ZootBlast - 30mg Single1 0.95 0.95 0 0 ETHOS Oral Spray Create Create(10ml)1 1.05 1.05 0 0 Tincture Natural Tincture Natural1 78.7 78.7 3.57 0 ETHOS Water Tincture Jour-

neyJourney(1oz)


So what’s the problem?Liquid edibles


1 5.12 5.12 0.45 0 SM 50mg Dank Drizzle Dank Drizzle1 5.12 5.12 0.45 0 SM 100mg Dank Drizzle Dank Drizzle1 53.9 53.9 95.9 0 PTNZ - Dropperz - CBD

Honey Lemon 100mgPTNZ - Dropperz - CBDHoney Lemon 100mg

1 23.7 23.7 28.3 0 FAIRHAVEN RCBD1-6012.19

FAIRHAVEN RCBD1-6012.19

1 54.19 54.19 0 0 Strawberry Lemonade, 12 oz,60 mg

Strawberry Lemonade, 12 oz,60 mg

1 59.94 59.94 0 0 Strawberry Lemonade, 12oz,80mg

Strawberry Lemonade, 12oz,80mg

1 54.4 54.4 69.3 0 BALLARD D27-CBD 5.11 BALLARD D27-CBD 5.11


So what’s the problem?Concentrates

GramsSold TotalTHC THC CBD THCA RetailProductName WholesaleProductName

1 1.4 0.2 0 1.4 Royal THC Vape Pink Pas-sion

Royal THC Vape Pink Pas-sion

1 1.4 0.2 0 1.4 Royal THC Vape God Bud Royal THC Vape God Bud1 39.34 0.61 44.16 0 CCC KIEF 1 Kief1.155642023 98.4 30.1 68.3 0 Aliens on Moonshine Clear Aliens on Moonshine Clear1 97.5 51.6 41.9 4.6 White Widow Clear White Widow Clear1 97.3 96.75 3.6 0.6 GG - Sugar Wax - 1.0 gram

packageGG - Sugar Wax - 1.0 grampackage


So what’s the problem?Concentrates


1 1.4 0.2 0 1.4 Royal THC Vape Pink Pas-sion

Royal THC Vape Pink Pas-sion

1 1.4 0.2 0 1.4 Royal THC Vape God Bud Royal THC Vape God Bud1 39.34 0.61 44.16 0 CCC KIEF 1 Kief1.155642023 98.4 30.1 68.3 0 Aliens on Moonshine Clear Aliens on Moonshine Clear1 97.5 51.6 41.9 4.6 White Widow Clear White Widow Clear1 97.3 96.75 3.6 0.6 GG - Sugar Wax - 1.0 gram

packageGG - Sugar Wax - 1.0 grampackage

100.95% cannabinoids!


So what’s the problem?Topicals


2 0 0 0.45 0 Topical Flow Gel Topical Flow Gel1 0.008 0.08 0 0 Bath Bath1 0.99 0.53 0.01 0.36 Body Buzz(4oz) Body Buzz(4oz)1 0.99 0.53 0.01 0.36 Ethos Body Buzz Bath Salt

60mgBody Buzz(4oz)

2 93.1 93.1 0.2 0 PTNZ - Lotionz - (5) Ampules300mg

PTNZ - Lotionz - (5) Ampules300mg

1 68.8 68.8 0.3 0 PTNZ - Lotionz - (5) Ampules300mg

PTNZ - Lotionz - (5) Ampules300mg


So what’s the problem?Mix package


1 0.38 0 6.86 0.43 Harle-Tsu 1g Walden 1g dried flowerstrain marketed as 20:1 CBD

1 1.4 1.4 4 0 Harlequin 1g Joint Harlequin 1g Jointstrain marketed as 5:2 CBD

3.5 2.54 0.11 0.16 2.26 Finished Flower - Medi Haze Finished Flower - Medi Hazestrain marketed as between 1:1 and 2:1 CBD


So what’s the problem?Mix infused


0.88203125 9.27 1.7 6.73 8.63 Third Kynde - CBD Preroll Third Kynde - CBD Preroll0.826498423 12.7 12.7 18.7 0 Third Kynde - CBD Preroll Third Kynde - CBD Preroll1 56.5 10.5 4.2 37.5 Golden Nuggets No. 5 Golden Nuggets No. 5


So what’s the problem?In sum

1 No pack size.2 No unit of measurement for potencies required.3 Not clear whether potencies are per serving or per container.4 Inexplicable potencies.5 Idiosyncratic descriptors mean we can’t always pull useful information out of names.6 No instructions to labs for entering potencies.7 No data checking.














Outline





What do we need?Specifying required parameters

Total milligrams of THC sold =For each product i , amount of product× THC

unit of product =∑ni=1 Package Counti × Packages Soldi × Potency Per Counti ×

Scaling Factori

or∑ni=1 Grams Soldi × mg THC

g Product i


What do we need?Specifying required parameters

Pull pack size from names?Get some idea of potency from names?How identify nonsensical potencies versus legitimately low or high values?Total THCi = THCi + .877× THCAi


Outline





Our approachSpecifying required parameters

1 Specify allowable high and low values (brackets) for pack size and potencyBy product typeTry to differentiate high CBD products?

2 Set everything outside those brackets to missing.3 Impute missing data from data we "trust".4 Vary assumptions to calculate a set of estimates.










Our approachSimple version

Product type: pre-calculationsteps Pack size Packages sold THC potency

Solid edibles (22) Plug in median for missing PackagesSold Plug in median for missingHigh 20 12mgLow 1 1mg

Liquid edibles (23): Replace200mg (nominally 1:1) with100mg to represent THC

Assume all potencies arefor whole bottle, thereforepack size = 1

PackagesSoldUse marketing mg per bot-tle. Plug in median for miss-ing.

High 1 100mgLow 1 9mg

Concentrates (24) Sold by weight, thereforepack size = 1

GramsSold; ignorenominal weight innames

Plug in median for missing

High 1 98%bwLow 1 2%bw



Product type Pack size Packages sold THC potency

Topicals (25) IGNOR-ING

Assume all potencies are forwhole package, therefore packsize = 1

PackagesSold Single guess for all = 50mg?

Bud (28) Sold by weight, therefore packsize = 1 GramsSold Plug in median for missing

High 1 40%bwLow 1 0.6%bw

Mix package (31) Sold by weight, therefore packsize = 1 GramsSold Plug in median for missing

High 1 50%bwLow 1 0.6%bw

Mix infused (32) Sold by weight, therefore packsize = 1 GramsSold Plug in median for missing

High 1 70%bwLow 1 8%bw



For any sales entry missing one or more parameter, plug in:1 Lowest possible value2 Middle possible value (median of those values within brackets)3 Highest possible value

Calculate 3 values of mg THC for each sales entryFor complete and trusted sales, low = medium = highSum→ 3 estimated values of THC sold










Outline





Results!King County, June 2016, data

Type Rows Bad Pack Potency bracket Bad THC

Edibles 99092 41486 41.9% 1mg–12mg 23794 24.0%Liquids 23153 0 9mg–100mg 10025 43.3%Concentrates 119464 0 2%–98% 784 0.7%Bud 684264 0 0.6%–40% 2328 0.3%Mix package 23547 0 0.6%–50% 51 0.2%Mix infused 16858 0 8%–70% 176 1.0%

Total 966378 41486 4.3% 37158 3.8%


Results!King County, June 2016, estimates

Type Pot. bracket Low THC (mg) Mid THC (mg) High THC (mg) Mid % of total

Edibles 1mg–12mg 2,682,307 5,298,512 11,850,677 1.4%Liquids 9mg–100mg 985,337 1,333,405 2,007,085 0.3%Conc. 2%–98% 58,890,255 59,202,127 59,323,155 15.4%Bud 0.6%–40% 303,650,863 304,619,042 305,551,430 79.4%Mix package 0.6%–50% 7,761,970 7,786,011 7,824,807 2.0%Mix infusion 8%–70% 5,161,408 5,180,861 5,232,637 1.4%

Total 379,132,141 383,419,958 391,789,791mg difference vs. middle -4,287,817 8,369,833% difference vs. middle -1.12% 2.18%


Outline





Results!Pierce County, June 2016, data

Type Rows Bad Pack Potency bracket Bad THC

Edibles 19240 8768 45.6% 1mg–12mg 4389 22.8%Liquids 5200 0 9mg–100mg 2378 45.7%Concentrates 35148 0 2%–98% 281 0.8%Bud 245934 0 0.6%–40% 665 0.3%Mix package 8008 0 0.6%–50% 0 0.0%Mix infused 3149 0 8%–70% 0 0.0%

Total 316679 8768 2.8% 7713 2.4%


Results!Pierce County, June 2016, estimates

Type Pot. bracket Low THC (mg) Mid THC (mg) High THC (mg) Mid % of total

Edibles 1mg–12mg 492,576 780,643 2,410,903 0.5%Liquids 9mg–100mg 202,213 286,750 450,370 0.2%Conc. 2%–98% 21,391,868 21,528,010 21,578,828 14.1%Bud 0.6%–40% 126,625,016 126,976,180 127,303,244 82.9%Mix package 0.6%–50% 2,578,514 2,578,514 2,578,514 1.7%Mix infusion 8%–70% 1,014,812 1,014,812 1,014,812 0.7%

Total 152,304,999 153,164,908 155,336,671mg difference vs. middle -859,909 2,171,763% difference vs. middle -0.56% 1.42%


Results!Comparing estimates accounting for population size

mg per capita

King

Pierce

176 178 180 182 184 186 188 190

182.1

181.4


Summary

The sales data are problematicNo field for package sizeNo consistent indicator of high CBD productPotency problems

With certain assumptions, can still say something about salesBracket approach still puts trust in values within brackets

Possible improvementsFlag high CBD items based on some minimum CBD potency and/or "CBD"? Would missmany "medicinal" products.Confidence intervals via Monte Carlo simulation? High and low bounds < 3.5% wide, sovalue of "better" CIs unclear.


Summary

Next step Comparing sales data to consumption estimates from wastewater testing forsame time periods and same place

For more information anjrw [at] uw [dot] edu


Documents

Estimating cannabinoids sold from marijuana sales data in ...adai.uw.edu/pubs/pdf/2018THCdifficultiesandinitialsimpleestimate.pdfConcentrates GramsSold TotalTHC THC CBD THCA RetailProductName