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Therealissue:persistingoutputgap
source:FederalReserveNov2014PotentialOutputandRecessions:arewefoolingourselvesCf alsoReinhard andRogoff,Thistimeisdifferent
Banks have changed fundamentally
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Loans as percentage of totalbalance sheet atDeutschenBank
Quelle:DeutscheBank,Geschäftsberichte1989-2013.EigeneDarstellung.
CAGR1987-2007:loans 3,6%=x2Balancesheet 14,4%=x15
assets- trading book- derivates
liabilities- wholesale financing- Repos
AlsoGoldmanSachsgot only 10%of income from IPOs
Banks: extremely levered hedgefonds
Quelle:DeutscheBank,Geschäftsberichte2012.EigeneDarstellung.
HypoRealEstate in2007had capitalof only
0,08%Quelle:UdoPhilipp,Untersuchungsaussschuss HypoRealEstate,Juli2015,S.4http://udo-philipp.de/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/HypoRealEstate.pdf
Cfalso:Anat Admati undMartinHellwig,Bankersnew clothes
Regulatory capital requirement
Explodingfinance
Cf.recentbooks:JohnKay,OtherPeople’sMoney– Mastersoftheuniverseorservantsofthepeople?AdairTurner,BetweenDebtandtheDevil– Money,creditandfixingGlobalFinanceMartinWolf,TheShiftsandtheShocks– Whatwe’velearnedandhavestilltolearnfromthefinancialcrisis
Explodingcompensation
source:Philippon&Reshef (2009),WagesandHumanCapitalintheU.S.FinancialIndustry,1909-2006
Scandals• Libor• Ratefixing• Liborisbenchmarkrateforalmostallcreditcontracts• Majorbankshadtopaybillionsoffines
• Foreignexchangefixing• Tradersriggedfx markettomakeprofit• Bankspaidbillionsinfines
• LondonWhale• 6.2bn USDtradinglossforJPMorgan
Scandals2• Mis-sellingofpaymentprotectioninsurance
• Mis-sellinginterestrateswaps
• Mis-sellingcreditcardtheftinsurance
• Mis-sellingofmortgage-backedsecurities
• Mis-sellingofmunicipalbondinvestmentstrategies
• Mis-sellingofstructureddepositinvestments
• Mis-sellingofforeignexchangeproducts
• Fraudrelatedtothepackagingandsellingofmortgage-backedsecuritiesthatinstitutionsknewtobe“toxicwaste”
• Misleadingstatementstoinvestorsinvolvingcapital-raisingrightsissue
• Misleadinginvestorsinthesaleofcollateralised debtobligations
• Abusivesmallbusinesslendingpractices
• Predatorymortgagepractices
• Abusiveorininappropriateforeclosurepractices(WellsFargoamongothers:
• Abusiveimpositionofunwarrantedfeesandcharges
• Conductingfalseappraisalsandchargingcustomersforthem
• Aidingandabettingtaxevasion
• Aidingandabettingmoneylaunderingforviolentdrugcartels
• Violationsofrogue-regimesanctions
• ManipulationofLibor
• ManipulationofEuribor
• ManipulationofFXmarkets
• Manipulationofgoldfixing(London)
• Manipulationofcommoditymarketsviametalswarehousingpractices
• Manipulationofelectricitymarkets(California)
• Manipulationoftheswapsmarketbenchmarkindex(Isdafix)
• CollusionrelatingtocreditdefaultswapmarketdealinginviolationofUSanti-trustlaws(“settlement”reachedwithauthoritiestoresolveallegations)
• FilingfalsestatementswiththeSEC(LondonWhale)
• Keepingfalsebooksandrecords(LondonWhale)
•
Source:BETTERMARKETS:https://www.bettermarkets.com/sites/default/files/Speech%20Berlin%20Financial%20Stability%20Conf%20Nov%202016.pdf
Scandals3• ReportingfailuresrelatingtoMadoff
• WithholdingofcriticalinformationfromItalianregulators
• BribingcivilserviceemployeesinJapan
• Mis-reportingrelatedtoBarclaysemergencycapitalraising
• Stealingconfidentialregulatoryinformationbyabanker
• CollusionwithGreekauthoritiestomisleadEUpolicymakersonmeetingEurocriteria
• FinancialengineeringwiththeaimofmovingItaliandebtoff-balancesheet
• ManipulationofriskmodelswiththeaimofminimizingreportedRiskWeightedAssets/capitalrequirements
• ElectronicFXtradingrelatedmarketmanipulation
• Processandcontrolfailureswithrespecttodealingswiththeultra-wealthy/“politicallyexposedpersons”.(ElephantDeal- Barclays11/’15)
• FailuretopreventbriberyofAfricanofficials(StandardChartered)
• Peddlingcomplextaxavoidancestrategiestocorporateclients(Deutsche)
• ImproperlyprovidinginformationaboutaJapanesecompanytoitsclients(Deutsche)
• Abusesrelatingtodarkpooltradingplatforms(Barclays)
• Failuretodiscloseconflictofintereststowealthmanagementclients(JPM)
• Misleadinginvestorswithwrong/incompleteinformation(JPMLondonWhalelosses)
• Conspiracytocommitmulti-milliondollarsecuritiesfraud(RBS:
• OverchargingcustomersforFXtransactions(Barclays:Times/Oct30,2015)
• Failuretomeetthetermsofthe2013Mortgageforeclosureabusessettlement(JPM)
• Repeatedviolationoffederallawsconnectedwithsourcingsecuritiesforclientshorting(GS
• ManipulationofKoreanstockmarket
• Unfairlyjumpingthecreditorqueuetosecure(confiscate?)collateralrelatingtoLehman
• Publishingresearchandtradinginthesharesofacompanyitwasadvising(GoldmanSachs)
• Othermortgagerelatedabusesincluding:failingtoaccuratelytrackpaymentsbyborrowers;chargingunauthorised fees;andprovidingfalseandmisleadinginformationinresponsetocomplaintsbycustomers.(HSBC)
• Useofminorityownednonconsolidatedsubsidiariestoarbitragecapitalrequirements
• Investmentbankanalystsalteringstockresearchrecommendationstocurryfavour withcompaniestheywereresearching.(DeutscheBank/Feb17)
• Useofillegaloffshoreschemestoavoidpayingincometaxonbonuses(Deutsche/UBS)
• ExFederalReserveemployeeworkingatGoldmanconspiredwithformerCentralBankcolleaguetoleakconfidentialinformation
Scandals4• Overchargingcustodyclientsthroughtheuseofundisclosedorsecretmark-upsonforeignexchangetransactionsincontradictionofitspromisetoclientsof“bestexecutionrates.”[StateStreetsettlesallegationsfor$530mio.– July28]
• Mis-sellingofloanstosmallbusinesscustomersundertheUK’sEnterpriseFinancescheme[RBS]
• Offerstoprocureprostitutestocurryfavour withSWFclients[GS/LibyanSWF]
• “Manufacturedeuros7.2billioneurosofdepositsbyshamtransactionstoinflatereporteddepositbaseduringthecrisis[Ireland]
• Predatorypracticesconnectedwiththeissuanceofbankingdebitcards
• SupervisoryfailuresconnectedwithChicagoMercantilerelatedexchangeandclearingfeeprocessingwhichinturninvolvedoverchargingofcustomers[MerrillLynchandBarclaysCapitalUS/CFTCfines]
• Falsifyingaccounts(manipulatingmark-to-marketpricingofderivativespositions)toreducereportedunrealised losses[Deutsche]
• Dismissalofwhistle-blowerwhocomplainedabouttheabove[Deutsche]
• Creationoffakeclientaccountsandmakingunauthorised transferstoachievebonusdrivensalestargets- involvingsome2millionclientsandnolessthan5000employeeoffendersoversome5years(WellsFargo)
• MisleadinginvestorsviamisclassificationofprivateclientassetaccountswithaviewtoinflatereportedNetNewAssetsforthebank.Andcurrentlyunderinvestigation...
• Manipulationofpreciousmetalsmarkets(gold/silver/platinum/palladium- Switzerland)
• Manipulation/collusionoftheUSTreasuryMarketauction/clientsales
• Manipulationofenergymarkets
• Shortchangingclientsasecondtimeinnotpayingsettlementsinfull
• Violationsconnectedwithemergencyfundraisings
• Falsifyingcustomerdataandrecords
• MisleadingshareholdersaheadofRBSrightsissue
• MisleadingshareholderinformationwithrespecttoLloydstakeoverofHBOs
• Conspiracytoforcesmallbusinessesintobankruptcytothebenefitofthelender
• InsertionofillegalratefloorsinSpanishmortgagelending
• Fakingcustomerfilestojustifypredatoryforeclosurepractices
• Misleadingprofitandcapitalstatementsbasedonquestionableaccountingpractices
• Bribing(“Improperpayments”)officialsinconnectionwithlicenseapplicationsinSaudiArabia
• Hiringsonsanddaughtersofseniorofficialsinreturnforfavours
• Fabricatingcomplaintlettersafterthefacttojustifydismissalofawhistle-blowerwhoraisedalarmsoverpossiblemis-sellingofmutualfunds.
• “Mis-informing”(lying)to4500peopleoverexistenceofdormantaccounts
• Useof“mirrortrades”($10billionsworth)tocircumventRussianrelatedsanctions(Deutsche)
• Overchargingcustomerswhoarepastdueontheircreditcards(HSBC:14Dec/Times)
Scandals5• MarketriggingofGilttrading(Lloyds/CS)
• HidingfailedLoansinitscommercialrealestateportfolioin2009.2010atatimeofissuingnewstocktorepaygovernmentbail-outmoney.WilmingtonTrust,Delaware.
• NontransparentandexcesschargesforFXtransfersbymajorUKbankstosmallbusinessesintheUK:
• Manipulatingshareholdingsarounddividendpaymentdatestotriggerdishonestlyacquiredtaxreimbursements.(DB/Barclays/BNP/GS/UBS)
• ManipulationoftheAustralian“bankbillswaprates”
• Manipulationofthegovernmentsponsoredbondmarket(supranational,sub-sovereignandgovernmentagencydebtor“SSAmarket.”)
• Useofsecret/undisclosedpaymentsofcirca$500mioconnectedwithemergencycapitalfunding.(Barclays)
• Knowinglyacquiring“dirtydebt”(aloanusedaspartofamulti-millionpoundembezzlementscheme)andusingittodemandcompensationfromanAfricangovernment(StandardChartered)
• Conspiracywithborrowertofalsifyworkestimatestotally$400millionoffraudulentaccountsreceivable:(Citibank)
• Facilitatingfraudulentactivitybycustomersviauseofimportadvancepayments(Barclays)
• “Spoofing”intradingofUSgovernmentbonds(Barclays)
• LaunderingtheproceedsofPetrobrasrelatedcorruption(HSBC)
• Mis-sellingof“lobo”loanstoUKLocalCouncils
• FraudandCriminalmismanagementinconnectionwithaccountmanagementfortheformerprimeministerofGeorgia(CreditSuisseGeneva)
• Forcingcustomerstoswitchfromvariable(“tracker”)mortgagesintofixedratemortgages– inafalling/lowrateenvironment.[UlsterBank-RBS]
• Mis-sellingexpensivelifeinsuranceproductstolittleoldladiesinFrance(BarclaysFrance)
• FacilitatingAfricanmoneylaunderingonagrandscale(BarclaysFrance)
• MisleadingLiborsubmissionswiththeaimofboostingconfidenceinthebank’sperceivedcreditworthiness(Citi)
• ConspiringtofacilitateVATevasionthroughmanipulativecarbontradingtransactions(RBS6/2016)
• MisleadinginexperiencedofficialsinnascentLibyanSWFintocomplexandultimatelylossmakingderivativetrades(GoldmanSachs)
• Mishandlingoftheproceedsofsecuritiesofferingsforastateinvestmentfund(GoldmanSachs/1MDB)
• Offeringforuse,falseandmisleadingvaluationopinionsonM&Atransactionstocurryfavour withwealthmanagementclients(GoldmanSachs)
• Abusivepracticesinhandlingmortgagearrears(Lloyds/29July)
• ErrorsandabusesconnectedwithreversemortgagesandrelatedforeclosuresinNYState[NYDFSinvestigationofReversedMortgageSolutionsandChampionMortgage]
• ManipulationofAustralianBankBillSwapRate– BBSW.[Lloyds/RBS/HSBC/JPM/MS/UBS/DB/others]
• Forgingclientsignaturestocreateunwantedcreditcardaccountandthenharassingtheindividualfornonpaymentofchargesrelatingtoacardneverappliedfor(WellsFargo)
• Dismissingemployeeswhofailedtomaketheirsalestargetsthroughfraudulentbehaviour [WellsFargo]
• Forcingdistressedbankingclientstohireaturn-aroundconsultantwhorecommendedexpensivenewlendingfacilitiesandfromwhomthebankerreceivedpersonalkickbacks
• CollusiontofalsifyaccountsofItaly’sthirdlargestbank.
Abacusscandal– agreedfacts
• HedgefundPaulsonaskedGoldmanSachstoassemblesyntheticCDOs(Abacus)withsubprimemortgagesinexchangeforafeeof$15m
• AbacuswasboughtbyGermanIKB
• PaulsonshortedAbacusbybuyingCDS
• Abacuslost$900m,IKBlost$150m
• Paulsonmadeagainof$1bn
Abacus– ethicalissues• Conflictsofinterest• Agencytheory:Servingtheinterestofthebankandoftheclient
• Reputation• Repeattransactions• Incentivestructures:onlymakemoneyifclientmakesmoney
• Servingtwoclientssimultaneously• PaulsonandIKB• TypicalforI-Bankstohave“chinese walls”• Workforsellerandbuyer(arrangefinancing)atsametime• Maybenotatsametimebuthaveoneregularandlargeclientandaone-offsmallclient
• Truthtellingandtransparency• Doesitworkwithunsophisticatedcustomers?
Hugebonuses
• TomHayes(UBS):sofaronlypersonconvictedforLiborrigging• 14yearsprison• <30yearsoldin2008/09• Banksrivalledtohirehim.
• Goldmanoffered3msignonbonus• UBSpaidstaybonusinstead
• ChristianBittar (DeutscheBank)• bonus:84mEurosin2008and63mEurosin2009
Equitybasedcompensationdoesnothelp
• EvidencethatbankswithCEOswhoseincentiveswerebetteralignedperformedworse• Cf.Fahlenbrach andStulz,BankCEOincentivesandthecreditcrisis,JournalofFinancialEconomics,2011
• Topmanagerscouldcashoutevenwithsharebasedpay• Cf.Bebchuk,Cohen,Spamann,Thewagesoffailure:executivecompensationatBearStearnsandLehman2000-2008,YaleJournalonRegulation,2010• Shareholdershadnegativecumulativereturn• Top5executiveslost$800mand$600m• Butcashedout$1.4bnand$1bn,sonetprofitof$600mand$400m
Themagicofleverageandlimitedliability- 1
• Invest100– return150– profit50• Takedebt100– 40interest– profit10• E.g.1equityfinancedand49debtfinanced:expectedvalue1x150+49x10=640
• Risk:50%chanceof150and50%chanceof120• expectedvalue:0.5x150+0.5x120=135
• 135<140soreturnislowerthanwhatyouneedtopaybacktothebank• Innegativescenario:20profitonequitybutlossof20witheachdebtfinancedbet
• 1x120+49x(-20)=- 860• Expectedvalue0.5x640+0.5x(-860)=- 110
• Limitedliability:youcanonlylooseyourequity,somaxloss=100• Ifyouinvest100youhave50%chanceofgettingbackyourmoneyplusprofitand50%chanceoflosingall• .5x640+.5x0=320
• Itisrationaltotake49debtforsuchriskygamble
Themagicofleverageandlimitedliability- 2• Evenextremelyriskybetsmakesensewithleverage
• E.g.invest100,20%chanceofgetting150and80%riskoflosingall:• .2x150+.8x0=30• Theexpectedvalueof30ismuchlowerthanthe100youneedtoinvest.Youwouldneverinvesttomakesuchabigloss
• Butwithdebtyoucanonlyloseyourequity• EV.2x640+.8x0=128• Expectedvalueof128islargerthanthe100investment.Soitmakessensetoinvest
• Typicalbetinfinancialindustry:veryhighlikelihoodoflowreturnandverylowprobabilityofveryhighloss• .999x10+.001x(-100,000)=- 90.01
• Negativeexpectedvalue,nobodywouldinvest• Abankneeds3%ofequity,sothemaxlosswouldnotbe100,000butonly3,000.Theoutcomeispositive,it
makessensetoplaythisgamble• .999x3,010+.001x0 =3,006.99
• Stockoptionsputleverageonleverage• Nopersonalinvestment,onlyupside
Cf.Bebchuk andSpamann,RegulatingBankers’Pay,TheGeorgetownLawJournal,2010
Problemhighlyleveredbanks
• Debtholders donotpreventhighleverage• Depositsinsured• Wholesalefinancing
• Veryshorttermdebt• Repo(fullysecuredfinancing)• TBTFguarantee
• TBTFsubsidies200bnEurosp.a.inEuropeSource: IMF,GlobalFinancialStability Report,April2014
Doesbankingcultureleadtodishonesty?
StudyinJournalNature• 200bankemployeesassignedtotwogroups
• Bankgroup:participantshadtotalkabouttheirbankingjobs
• Controlgroup:talkaboutprivatelife
• Test:participantscouldmakelotofmoneybycheating
• Controlgroup:honestonaverage
• Bankinggroup:significantlylesshonest
• Controlstudywithotherprofessions:nosignificantresults
Source:Cohn,FehrandMarechal,businesscultureanddishonestyinthebankingindustry,Nature,November2014
Recentmeasures
• Bonuscap• 2xbasesalaryhasbeendecided• Betterwouldbe:highcompensationdeferredover10years
• Moreequity• 3%leverageratiobetterthan2%,butstillhomeopathicdose
• Structuralreform(implementedonlyhalfheartedly)• Donotsubsidizetradingwithinsureddeposits• Easiertoresolve• ShrinkeconomicrentsinI-Banking
Reintroduceliability
• Investmentbanksusedtobepartnerships• Fullpersonalliabilityofpartners
• i.e.privatewealthonthehook• GoldmanSachswaspartnershipuntil1999
• Criminalliability• UKParliamentaryCommissiononBankingStandards
• SeniorManagerregime• Executiveresponsibilityofsystemicfailure
• JohnKay“denofthieves”• Criminaloffencetobeinchargeofadenofthievesnotbeathieveyourself
EntrepreneurialriskinPrivateEquityvsshorttermbonusinbanks• CarriedInterestinPE• Substantialprivateinvestment
• Leadstohighpersonaldebts• Highthreshold– minimumreturn
• 8%netafterallcost• Fundcarry:after10-12years
• Investorshavereceivedalltheirmoneybackincludinghighminimumreturn
• Lowbasesalary
• Bonus/Stockoption• Nopersonalrisk
• Nominimumreturn
• Yearlypayout• Investorskeeprisk
• Highbasesalary