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Lars-Erik Cederman Professor of International Conflict Research SNIS Biennial Conference on “Political and Economic Inequality”, ETH Zürich, January 28-29, 2016
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Ethnic Inequality and Conflict
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Outline
§ Inequality and conflict § Ethno-political inequality and civil war § Ethno-economic inequality and civil war
§ Trends and causes of inequality § Ethno-political inequality § Ethno-economic inequality
§ Conclusion
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landdestroyer.blogspot.com
www.telegraph.co.uk
Ethnic inequality in recent and current civil wars
www.telegraph.co.uk
South Sudan
Israel, Gaza, West Bank
Isis Ukraine
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An economic approach to civil war § Inequality irrelevant! § “Greed/Opportunities” rather
than “grievance”
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Prof. Paul Collier, Oxford Univ.
So what causes civil war? Rebel movements themselves justify their actions in terms of a catalogue of grievances: repression, exploitation, exclusion. Politically motivated academics have piled in with their own hobbyhorses, which usually cast rebels as heroes. I have come to distrust this discourse of grievances as self-serving. ”
Bottom Billion, OUP 2007
“
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Our research
§ Focus on how ethnic inequality along political and economic lines may trigger civil war
§ Inequality, Grievances and Civil War § Lars-Erik Cederman, ETH Zürich § Kristian Skrede Gleditsch Univ. of Essex § Halvard Buhaug, PRIO
Cambridge University Press, 2013 § Articles in American Political Science Review,
American Journal of Political Science, International Organization, World Politics, Journal of Peace Research, Journal of Conflict Resolution
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From ethnic inequality to civil war
Ethnic inequality
Grievances
Macro link
Group identification Intergroup comparison
Evaluation of injustice Framing and blaming
Repress or redress?
Mobilization
Civil war
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Ethnic Power Relations Dataset
§ Ethnic groups’ power access and settlement areas worldwide 1946-2013
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Vogt et. al. 2015. Journal of Conflict Resolution http://growup.ethz.ch
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Ethno-political inequality and civil war
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●
●
0.00
00.
002
0.00
40.
006
0.00
80.
010
Political Status
Pred
icte
d Pr
obab
ility
of C
onfli
ctIncluded Excluded
Conflict probability
Included groups
Excluded groups
See Cederman, Wimmer & Min (2010) Source: Ethnic Power Relations (EPR-ETH) Dataset, http://growup.ethz.ch
Government
Group 1
Group 2
Group 3
Group 4
Group 5
Group 6
State Polity
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Ethno-political inequality and conflict, cont’d
§ Exclusion and conflict duration: § Wucherpfennig et al. (World Politics 2011)
§ Ethnic inclusion and power sharing: § Cederman, Hug, Schädel & Wucherpfennig (APSR 2015) § Wucherpfennig, Hunziker and Cederman (AJPS forthcoming)
§ Exclusion and oil: § Hunziker and Cederman (2016)
§ Language and religion: § Bormann, Cederman & Vogt (JCR 2015)
§ Transnational relations and refugees: § Cederman, Gleditsch, Salehyan & Wucherpfennig (IO 2013),
Rüegger (2015) 9
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Explaining postcolonial conflict
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Conflict Colonial Strategy
Initial Inclusion
Wucherpfennig, Hunziker, Cederman. “Who Inherits the State? Colonial Rule and Post-Colonial Conflict.” Forthcoming in American Journal of Political Science
3 4 5 6 7
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Initial Inclusion
log Distance to Coast
Pred
icte
d Pr
obab
ility
British
French
3 4 5 6 7
−1.0
−0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
British vs. French Initial Inclusion
log Distance to Coast
Diff
eren
ce in
Pre
dict
ed P
roba
bilit
y
−1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Change in Predicted Probability of Conflict for Included Groups
Dens
ity
Model 3
Model 4
naïve
with reverse causation
change in conflict probability
distance from coast
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Ethno-economic inequality and civil war
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1 2 3 4 5 6
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
Low Ratio
Pred
icted
Pro
babi
lity o
f Con
flict
Measuring inequality Effect of inequality
Yugoslavia: GECON and GeoEPR (1990)
Slovenes
Albanians
Gross Cell Productunder 1.941.94 − 3.883.88 − 5.825.82 − 7.76over 7.76 Relative poverty of group
Conflict prob.
See Cederman, Weidmann & Gleditsch (2011) Source: Ethnic Power Relations (EPR-ETH) Dataset, http://growup.ethz.ch
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Nightlights and ethno-economic inequality
Bamar(Barman)
§ Chen & Nordhaus (PNAS 2011) Myanmar (GECON−based Estimates)Myanmar (Nightlight−based Estimates)
Bamar(Barman)
Kachins
Shan
Kayin (Karens)
Inequalityunder 0.40.4 − 0.60.6 − 0.80.8 − 11 − 1.2over 1.2
G-Econ Estimate Nightlights Estimate
Myanmar
Cederman, Weidmann & Bormann. 2015. “Triangulating Horizontal Inequality.” Journal of Peace Research.
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Trends toward ethno-political equality
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1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
PowersharingExcludedDiscriminated
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Trends in ethno-political inequality: Excluded population in world regions
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Diffusion of ethnic inclusion
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2010
DominancePower SharingEthnicity Irrelevant
Cederman, Gleditsch & Wucherpfennig. 2015. Diffusion of Inclusion: An Open-Polity Model of Ethnic Power Sharing. Working Paper
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Transitions to inclusion/exclusion by regional neighborhood
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0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0.00
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
Regional/neighboring context
Pr(tr
ansi
tion
to e
xclu
cion
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
0.00
00.
005
0.01
00.
015
0.02
00.
025
Regional/neighboring context
Pr(tr
ansi
tion
to in
clus
ion
Shift to inclusion Shift to exclusion
Inclusion in neighborhood Inclusion in neighborhood
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Trends in ethno-economic inequality
17 Bormann, Cederman, Pengl & Weidmann. 2016. Globalization, Exclusion and Ethnic Inequality. Working Paper.
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Effect of globalization on relative poverty
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-.1-.0
50
.05
Mar
gina
l Effe
ct o
f Eco
n. F
low
s
-1.8 -1.4 -1 -.6 -.2 .2 .6 1 1.4 1.8Government Effectiveness
Included
Excluded
0.2
.4.6
.8D
istri
butio
n G
over
nmen
t Effe
ctiv
enes
s
-.1-.0
50
.05
.1M
argi
nal E
ffect
of E
con.
Flo
ws
0 .05 .1 .15 .2 .25 .3 .35 .4 .45 .5Investment Share in GDP
Included
Excluded
02
46
8D
istri
butio
n In
vest
men
t Sha
re
§ Gap between included and excluded groups widened in “neopatrimonial” states and narrowed in “developmental” states
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Conclusions
What do we know? § Ethno-political inequality è Conflict § Ethno-economic inequality è Conflict § Ethno-politics inequality has mostly been decreasing
except in the Middle East § Globalization reduces ethno-economic inequality in
“developmental” states but not in “neopatrimonial” ones What needs to be done? § Data, data, data... § Violent and non-violent consequences beyond civil war § Mechanisms driving ethnic inequality
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