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EGE-US-NATO:170224:(28-FEB-17):'Rearmament Spiral' A German Clash over Trump's NATO Demands..1IS-MSA-MEG:170223:(28-FEB-17):Two Middle East developments you may have missed.............................3RU:170227:(28-FEB-17):Russia’s fifth-gen fighter blitz......................................................................................3UKB-US-COMM:170224:(28-FEB-17):Exclusive: United States could become an 'associate member' of the

Commonwealth............................................................................................................................................ 4IS:170224:(28-FEB-17):Israel: Leviathan Natural Gas Development Clears Crucial Step...............................5IS-MEPT-ME:170227:(28-FEB-17):Israeli Minister: Regional peace can lead to Israeli-Palestinian deal........5RUK-RU:170227:(28-FEB-17):Ukraine: Breakaway Territory Announces Russian Ruble To Be Official

Currency....................................................................................................................................................... 5EEU:170228:(28-FEB-17):The Eurozone Plans for the Worst.............................................................................5EU-RUO:170228:(28-FEB-17):In Europe's Borderlands, the Winds of Change Blow in Every Direction.......6EGE-US:170220:(28-FEB-17):On a Par (II)...........................................................................................................9UK:170220:(28-FEB-17):Study Improves UK Atlantic Margin Prospects........................................................10TU-RU-NATO:170222:(28-FEB-17):Turkey mulls purchase of Russian air defense system..........................10UKB-EU:170224:(28-FEB-17):Juncker on Brexit: “They will have to cover the cost”....................................11IS-IN:170224:(28-FEB-17):India Clears $2.6 Billion Air Defense System Purchase From Israel...................11EU-IS-ECY:170224:(28-FEB-17):ENERGY: EU backs EuroAsia Interconnector with €14.5m for pre-works

study........................................................................................................................................................... 12IS:170224:(28-FEB-17):Leviathan development costs to be covered in three years.....................................12TU:170216:(28-FEB-17):Turkey's Record-breaking Academic Purge...................................................................13

EGE-US-NATO:170224:(28-FEB-17):'Rearmament Spiral' A German Clash over Trump's NATO DemandsSpiegel 24-Feb-17 U.S. President Donald Trump's demand that NATO member states pay their fair share has turned into a political hot potato ahead of German elections later this year. But the debate ignores a salient fact: The German military is in a terrible state.It was really nothing more than a test. Sigmar Gabriel was standing at the lectern inside the Bayerischer Hof hotel in Munich for his first appearance at the Munich Security Conference in his new role as German foreign minister. And he looked terrible. He was sick and had cancelled many of his appointments, but nevertheless decided not to forego his speech and the Security Conference. He wanted to toss a fly into the NATO soup.That morning, U.S. Vice President Mike Pence had spoken from the same stage and had used the spotlight to urge NATO member states to fulfil their alliance obligations as agreed and spend the equivalent of at least 2 percent of their GDPs on defense. Germany was one of his primary targets. The country is the clear economic leader in Europe, but Berlin only spends 1.2 percent of its GDP on the military, less even in absolute terms than the United Kingdom, France and a host of other European countries.Gabriel was well aware of all that, but he said: "We have to be a bit careful here that we don't over-interpret the 2 percent target." He then became much clearer: "Maintain perspective, stay focused on the target, but avoid being consumed by the bliss of a new rearmament spiral!" That was the decisive phrase: Rearmament spiral.Following the careful test balloon launched in Munich, Gabriel dripped a bit more oil into the fire a few days later, warning of "blind obedience" to the U.S. He also took a dig at his cabinet colleague Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen, saying that she apparently had a rather "naïve" notion regarding what was possible in Germany.

Just a few weeks after the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump, the debate over military spending has reached the depths of the accelerating German election campaign. Trump himself triggered the debate, having declared several times that NATO is "obsolete" and hinting that the U.S. would make its loyalties dependent on member states paying their fair share.Ever since the real-estate tycoon's adversarial speeches in New York, the trans-Atlantic alliance has found itself in a crisis of trust. But for Gabriel, the issue opens up a world of possibilities.Morals and ValuesGabriel, after all, is not just foreign minister. He is also the erstwhile head of the center-left Social Democrats (SPD). Since the party chose former European Parliament president Martin Schulz as its chancellor candidate a few weeks ago, the party has been revitalized and, after more than a decade of doldrums, finally believes it has a realistic chance of unseating Chancellor Angela Merkel in the September general election.Gabriel is now using the battle over increased defense spending as a symbol of resistance against the unpopular President Trump, a man who most German voters view with a significant distrust. For the SPD, the debate has great potential: the enemy is clear and, at its core, the debate is about morals and values. It also has the advantage that it pushes Merkel's conservatives into the Trump camp and puts them in the uncomfortable position of having to insist on spending more money on arms, which has never been politically palatable for a broad swath of the electorate.The debate has now become so potent that it has slowly begun losing all connection to reality. The actual needs of the German military, the Bundeswehr, hardly play any role at all. Which means the question as to what it would actually mean were 2 percent of GDP invested in the military has gone



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unanswered. Would it really be a "rearmament spiral" as Gabriel would have it?The best overview of the state of the German military is provided once a year in a report submitted by Armed Forces Commissioner Hans-Peter Bartels. As an SPD member of parliament for many years, Bartels is a credible voice from the perspective of the Social Democrats. And the image that he paints of the Bundeswehr is dark indeed.One year ago, he described how the Saxony-based 371st tank battalion, prior to taking on its role as "spearhead" of the NATO Response Force, had to borrow 15,000 pieces of equipment from 56 other German military units. In another example, the 345th artillery training battalion, based just west of Frankfurt, was officially supposed to have 24 armored artillery vehicles at its disposal. In reality, though, it had just seven, of which six were on standby for NATO and could not be used. And the seventh was in reserve for the six on standby. Troops reported to Bartels that they hadn't been able to carry out training exercises at the site for the last three years.'Self-Reinforcing'There is an endless list of such examples: A mountain infantry unit had only 96 pairs of night-vision goggles available instead of the 522 it had been allotted -- of which 76 had to be loaned out to other units. Which meant they only had 20, of which 17 were damaged.The lack of equipment, Bartels wrote in his most recent report, has led to a system of sharing by necessity. "It is often the case, with Navy units that are returning from a mission, for example, that as soon as they dock in their homeport, pieces of equipment are immediately dismounted from ships and then remounted on those vessels heading out to replace them, such as (radar devices). The components wear out much more quickly due to the frequent mounting and dismounting, such that the process becomes self-reinforcing."One can imagine the Bundeswehr as a fire department which, due to a lack of money, has no hoses, too few helmets, hardly any ladder trucks and no oxygen masks. But the department isn't eliminated entirely just in case a fire breaks out.Following cabinet consultations back in 2010, then-Defense Minister Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg of the CSU, the Bavarian sister party of Merkel's CDU, rejoiced at the government's decision to cut 8.3 billion euros from the defense budget by 2014, referring to it as a "unique opportunity" for "realignment." The German military still hasn't recovered.The military had already shrunk in the two decades since the end of the Cold War, from more than half a million soldiers to just 205,000 in 2011. The number of Leopard 2 battle tanks at the Bundeswehr's disposal likewise plunged during that same time period, from 2,000 to 225. The additional cuts announced by Guttenberg, largely a consequence of the financial crisis, were a step too far. "The national goal of budget consolidation," Guttenberg said at the time, "is the most important strategic parameter" for the reorganization of the German military.A Stream of New EuphemismsIn the future, the structures weren't going to determined spending needs, but spending needs were going to determine the structures. Classic areas of concern, such as alliance and

national defense needs, were no longer seen as central. Operations overseas became the priority, determining personnel, materiel and munitions needs. NATO's eastern flank was still at peace and, according to the logic of the time, since the boys were in Afghanistan anyway, not as many tanks were needed at home.The Defense Ministry invented a constant stream of new euphemisms to describe the measures taken to deal with the deficiencies. "Dynamic Availability Management," for example, shortened to the acronym DynVM, was used to describe a situation when one unit had to borrow tanks from another for exercises. And when just three surveillance drones were acquired instead of the 20 necessary, it was termed "minimum contribution."Erhard Bühler still shudders when he is forced to use such terms. As commander of the 10th tank division, he was an immediate victim of the budget cuts. He was told by Berlin one morning that his base was slated for closure and had to give a press conference at noon, still largely in the dark about what was happening.The lieutenant general is now head of the planning division in the Defense Ministry and thus responsible for the future constellation of the German military. In addition to the German flag, a large oil painting of Prussian King Frederick the Great hangs on the wall behind his desk. He continually pulls graphics out of a file folder showing the decline of the Bundeswehr.The consequences of Guttenberg's "realignment," the graphics make clear, are hollow structures and a military that is slowly wearing out. There is a huge need for new, modern equipment. According to protocol, the army is supposed to have at least 70 percent of large pieces of equipment, such as tanks and armored vehicles, available during operations. In reality, though, it is often much less than that. Other systems, such as night-vision goggles, are often missing completely.Bühler's colorful graphics make it clear how the 2010 budget cuts made it impossible for several years to pursue badly needed modernization efforts. Now, it will take several more years before that technology can be delivered to the troops.Necessary ModernizationWith much to-do, Defense Minister von der Leyen has since announced several "trend reversals," according to which the Bundeswehr is turning its back on Guttenberg's focus on overseas operations. In the future, national and alliance defense will once again determine structures within the German military. Russian aggression has led to a reinterpretation of the threat levels on NATO's eastern flank.Since the seminal Harmel Report in 1967, compiled for NATO by the Belgian Foreign Minister Pierre Harmel, the alliance has viewed effective deterrence as an important partner alongside dialogue and negotiation. Security and the reduction of tensions are not contradictory, the philosophy holds, rather the one is dependent on the other. As such, rapprochement with Russia will only be possible if Moscow takes European military strength seriously. That becomes even more important if the U.S. under Trump withdraws from Europe.After years of falling, the German defense budget is now climbing again. This year it is slated to rise by 8 percent to 37 billion euros. But even if Germany were to increase its budget to between 65 million and 75 million euros by 2024,



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thus fulfilling its 2 percent commitment, it would be far from being a "rearmament spiral." Rather, it would serve to complete the necessary modernization of the German military. It would fill up the hollow structures of today.

Bühler is following the political debate carefully. In his graphics, the lines for the next budget year and thereafter are dotted and drawn in red. And they come to an end in 2021 -- at 1.5 percent.

Top of the DocumentIS-MSA-MEG:170223:(28-FEB-17):Two Middle East developments you may have missedGlobes 23-Feb-17Indications of positive change in countries such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE should be carefully assessed.With all the overwrought bile, disguised as "commentary", on Donald Trump's first month as president two truly significant items from the Middle East were practically ignored by a media ever-more ideologically biased:The foreign minister of Saudi Arabia declared in an international forum in Munich that the Jews had the right to the land of Israel.For the first time in a history stretching back three and a half millennia, a woman was named governor of a province in Egypt.It is easy to make too much of such developments. The admirable Sisi government in Egypt is vulnerable to a deteriorating economic situation and the Saudi regime is still one of the most politically repressive in the world.Nevertheless, it would be equally wrong to be overly dismissive. For Israel, which must live in a neighborhood

with such enemies as Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, al Qaida, Islamic State and many others, and failed states such as Syria and Lebanon, indications of positive change in countries such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the UAE should be carefully balanced against excessive optimism or pessimism.An Israeli government operating within a clearly dysfunctional political system, subject to ideological attack from the right and the left, has to find the way to maneuver with the greatest of care but also decisiveness in this maze called the Middle East.Despite multiple domestic distractions and accusations of corruption, Netanyahu has once again demonstrated his political mastery, including a triumphant trip to Singapore and Australia. There is no indispensable person, but he comes remarkably close. And therein lies a great danger, largely due to his own refusal to nurture a successor in the same or similar mold. It is high time to change that situation and the events mentioned above and many others make it an imperative.

Top of the DocumentRU:170227:(28-FEB-17):Russia’s fifth-gen fighter blitzDefenseNews 27:1702Russia is moving aggressively on another traditional patron of U.S. arms exports: the United Arab Emirates. Rather than cheap small arms and land-based platforms, Russian companies appear to have identified a market opportunity: relatively cost-effective alternatives to Western fifth-generation fighters. The head of Russia’s largest defense conglomerate Rostec, Sergey Chemezov, told reporters at the IDEX show in Abu Dabi this week that Rostec would partner with the UAE Defense Ministry to develop a light fifth-generation fighter jet based on the MiG-29. Development is slated to begin in 2018, and production should launch seven to eight years after that.“It takes quite a long period of time to develop,” Chemezov told Defense News in an exclusive interview. “We anticipate local production here in [UAE], for the needs of [UAE].”The announcement comes as Russia is engaging in a region-wide diplomatic and economic press to rebuild old alliances and forge new ones. And after 18 months of aerial operations in Syria, countries that have strong appetites for fighter jets are taking closer looks at what Russia has to offer. The deal with UAE likely took some in the industry by surprise, says Dr. Theodore Karasik, senior advisor at the Washington-based Gulf State Analytics. Several Western firms have seen high-profile fourth-gen fighter deals with UAE fall through in recent years, but efforts to hash out an agreement have continued.The Russians have given UAE a good deal, argued Karasik. Under the agreement, Russia is set to provide UAE with fifth-generation fighter technology, produced locally in partnership with UAE defense firms. “This in itself is

completely different than any previous aerospace deals between UAE and the West,” Karasik says. “Whether it will work is another question.” A Message to IsraelOne possible explanation for the UAE deal involves messaging to Israel. The UAE has wanted a fifth-generation fighter for some time. The US has refrained from selling F-35 stealth fighters to UAE to satisfy Israel. A contract with Russia would signal to Israel that the Emirates can receive advanced weaponry from anywhere and not just the United States.“The agreement with Russia sends sharp signals to previous contenders for a fifth-generation fighter sale to UAE,” says Karasik.Mark Bobbi, an analyst at IHS, doesn’t think this will be a huge problem. “UAE wants the F-35 and they will get it once Israel gives the OK.” And Russian stealth hardware just doesn’t stack up to either the F-22 or F-35 stealth fighters. Turbulent History Russian defense industry officials have long aspired for a light fifth-generation fighter to complement Sukhoi’s heavier T-50. Recently, MiG has reportedly been working on a design. But it has always been unclear who would buy it. Russia’s Defense Ministry has already been forced to curtail its first-run orders of the new Sukhoi T-50 stealth fighter from around 50 to 12 units. At the unveiling of the "generation 4+++" MiG-35 multi-role fighter in January, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin again promised the creation of a fifth-generation MiG. With the announcement that UAE will be a partner on a MiG



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project, Russia appears to be modeling its efforts off the T-50 development program. While Russia will be the first to deploy the Sukhoi stealth fighters, India helped finance the fighter’s development in exchange for Russian assistance in developing a two-seat version for the Indian air force. The project has not been without its setbacks. India demanded a 50:50 work split, but with delays and costs mounting, it has dropped that requirement.The project looked to be on shaky ground, with disagreements over the future of the project delaying the signing of a detailed contract. These issues were apparently resolved during a meeting of Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi last year. India has agreed to invest $4 billion in the development of the Indian version of the aircraft.

Whether or not the UAE has a smoother experience with Russia as a development partner remains to be seen. Although Russian aircraft have demonstrated their capabilities in Syria, Russian defense companies have at times been difficult and unreliable partners. In 2008, Algeria famously returned MiG-29 fighters that had “new” hardware from the 1990s.“Russian industry does not have world-class product support,” Bobbi says. “The supply chain is very suspect and not getting any better with respect to on-time delivery, quality, etc.” Russia has, however, remained competitive in the fighter market in spite of quality control concerns. Over the past five years, aircraft exports have made up around 44 percent of Russia’s revenue, according to data compiled by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

Top of the DocumentUKB-US-COMM:170224:(28-FEB-17):Exclusive: United States could become an 'associate member' of the Commonwealth Daily Telegraph 24-Feb-17The Royal Commonwealth Society is making plans to open a branch in the United States, with a view to one day bringing America into the fold as an "associate member". The project, which is said to be backed by the Queen, has come about in part as a result of Donald Trump's fondness for Britain and the Royal Family. It comes amid efforts to develop the Commonwealth as a tool for building relationships on everything from foreign policy to trade, following Britain's exit from the European Union."The UK rather left this treasure in the attic, and forgot about it because people were so glued to Brussels," said Michael Lake, the director of the Royal Commonwealth Society. Opening a branch in the US, Mr Lake said, would further Britain's ties with America, developing new connections between two countries who already share a common language.Mr Lake said the plans had been hastened by the "opportunity of a new president, and the slightly dangerous but great fun opportunity that the 'Bad Boys of Brexit' offered".In December, Mr Lake wrote a letter to Mr Trump, which was hand carried by Andrew Wigmore, a close aide to Nigel Farage, and then delivered by the former UKIP leader.Mr Wigmore joined Mr Farage and Arron Banks, the millionaire businessman in visiting Mr Trump after the US election, and continues to have close ties with the administration.Mr Farage, who has emerged as a key ally of Mr Trump, promoted the idea with senior aides, reportedly presenting the letter to Steve Bannon, the president's chief strategist.He believes the Commonwealth alliance fits well with Mr Trump's foreign policy outlook.The president, for example, is said to have expressed his desire for India to be a "true friend and partner" in a phone call with Narendra Modi, the country's prime minister.Mr Lake wrote in his letter that opening a Commonwealth branch in America would help the UK and the US "find imaginative ways" in which they could work together.

Mr Wigmore told the Telegraph the response from the White House was "very positive".Though Mr Lake has not yet received a formal confirmation, discussions are said to be already underway to establish the office in New York. It is part of an effort by Mr Lake to raise the profile and relevance of the modern Commonwealth, seeking to make it more of a factor in matters of foreign policy."It has been very introspective, it needs to more extrovert," he said. "In that sense we have adopted a policy of getting branches of the Commonwealth in non-commonwealth countries."The idea, he said, is to promote "mutually advantageous" links with "reliable friends" around the world on everything from business to defence. The advantage of the Commonwealth, Mr Lake said, is that it operates less formally than governments, as a loose arrangement that is furthered by common values and culture."It works because companies find it easier and more congenial to work in Commonwealth countries," he said.A new branch of the RCS has already opened in Helsinki, acting as a Baltic-Scandinavian hub, to help facilitate business ties with Commonwealth countries.Last year the RCS opened a chapter in Dublin, as part of a campaign to help persuade the Republic to rejoin the alliance of 52 member states.Mr Lake said it was "no secret" that the branch there was opened after the Queen undertook a state visit to the country. "The Queen is our patron and I see her from time to time, and she makes it clear to me that the Commonwealth is a priority to her," Mr Lake said. Mr Trump, whose mother is Scottish and a royalist, has also expressed his enthusiasm for building his connections with the Royal family.He is hoping to visit Her Majesty at Balmoral Castle during his first official state visit to the UK in June.



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Top of the DocumentIS:170224:(28-FEB-17):Israel: Leviathan Natural Gas Development Clears Crucial StepStratfor 24-Feb-17Development of the Leviathan natural gas field off the coast of Israel has cleared a crucial final hurdle with an investment decision by the U.S.-Israeli consortium that has production rights to the field. Delek Group and Noble Energy will spend $3.75 billion over the next three years to develop the first phase of the project, and initial production is expected by 2019. The controversial development project has suffered delays since the field was discovered in 2010.Concern that the deal would give the consortium a monopoly over Israeli natural gas supplies led a member of Benjamin Netanyahu's Cabinet to resign after the prime minister tried to force the agreement through on national security grounds. Even after Netanyahu himself testified on the agreement's merits, the courts struck it down, but a deal was eventually worked out.The first phase of the project is expected to produce as many as 12.4 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas a year, enough to both partially supply the Israeli market and also to add to regional markets. Deals have been secured to send part of the natural gas to both Egypt and Jordan. The Jordanian export deal has proved controversial: After it was finalized in September 2016, protests erupted in Amman in a rare public show of discontent in the country.After the second phase of the project is completed, production is expected to almost double to 21.4 bcm a year. Tel Aviv hopes to export that additional production to Turkey, helping strengthen its ties to the country. Shipments to Turkey would likely not commence before the early

2020s. But the plans highlight Tel Aviv's desire to use its natural gas resources strategically.Leviathan is just one project among several underway in the Eastern Mediterranean. In Egypt, the supergiant Zohr natural gas field is in development and could come online this year. Moreover, Lebanon is in the midst of its first offshore licensing round, which it hopes to conclude later this year.

Top of the DocumentIS-MEPT-ME:170227:(28-FEB-17):Israeli Minister: Regional peace can lead to Israeli-Palestinian dealBICOM (Britain Israel Communication & Research Centre 27-Feb-17Israel’s Transport Minister has told a leading US newspaper that greater regional cooperation can help forge a diplomatic solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.Yisrael Katz, who heads the Ministry of Intelligence and the Ministry of Transport, gave an extensive interview to the Washington Post. Described in the article as a “political bulldozer,” Katz is a senior figure in Likud, a member of Israel’s security cabinet but does not support a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.Katz said that he prefers a “layered peace that starts with security coordination between Israel and the moderate Arab countries, including moderate Palestinians”. He talked about the extensive relations that already exist between Israel and Sunni Arab states, including those “where we have no peace agreement or diplomatic relations”.He added: “One of the goals of the new US administration is to strengthen the relationships between Israel and these states.”

Katz believes that economic peace will follow security and intelligence cooperation. To this end, he said that plans already exist, with Netanyahu’s backing, to extend Israel’s existing train line to Beit She’an in the Jordan Valley into Jordan and from there across the whole region. Katz concluded that “security coordination and economic peace will help bring about the diplomatic, political peace [between Israel and the Palestinians], which is more complicated for all different reasons”.Israeli news site NRG has reported this morning that an Iranian news agency believes the Saudi intelligence chief, Khaled al-Hamidan, secretly visited Israel and the Palestinian Authority (PA) last week. No Israeli or PA officials have confirmed the report, which claims that al-Hamidan “discussed, with high-ranking Israeli and Palestinian officials, security issues that are related to the regional summit that might be held between Israel and the moderate Sunni countries,” as mentioned by US President Donald Trump during Netanyahu’s recent visit to Washington.

Top of the DocumentRUK-RU:170227:(28-FEB-17):Ukraine: Breakaway Territory Announces Russian Ruble To Be Official CurrencyStratfor 27-Feb-17Authorities in the Luhansk territory in eastern Ukraine have announced that the Russian ruble will become the official

currency of the Luhansk People's Republic beginning March 1, Kommersant reported Feb. 27. The move comes about a



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week after Russian President Vladimir Putin signed an executive order recognizing documents issues by the rebels who control Luhansk and the neighboring Donetsk People's Republic. The order also granted visa-free travel for people

living in the two self-declared separatist republics. The moves from Moscow come as Washington is urging Russia and the rebels it supports to abide by the Minsk agreement.

Top of the DocumentEEU:170228:(28-FEB-17):The Eurozone Plans for the WorstStratfor 28-Feb-17This year will prove decisive for the eurozone. Between March and September, the Netherlands, France and Germany will hold general elections whose outcomes will help determine the future of Europe's common currency. Italy, too, may hold a vote by the end of the year. In light of the uncertainty that awaits, the eurozone's major players are making moves to brace themselves for whatever the future brings.In Italy, the government is hanging on by a thread. But no matter when the country holds its next general elections, the fact that almost half its electorate supports parties that want to leave the eurozone will put international markets and eurozone governments on edge. The concern will be even greater since rebel members of Italy's center-left Democratic Party announced Saturday that they had formed a new political party, which could undermine the ruling party's performance against the Euroskeptic Five Star Movement in the next vote. France's highest-polling party, the National Front, also wants to hold a referendum on eurozone membership.Meanwhile, the threat of a Greek exit from the European Union looms large. Athens recently promised to implement economic reforms to receive its next tranche of bailout money, but some of the measures involve politically sensitive issues, such as pensions and labor regulations, and could trigger political instability or social unrest. Because Greece's coalition government holds only a slim majority of the seats in Parliament, it could collapse if even a few lawmakers were to change their allegiances. And early elections in the country could turn into a referendum on eurozone membership. Now that most of Greece's debt is in the hands of its institutional lenders, a Grexit from the eurozone would not be as calamitous today as it would have been five years ago. Nevertheless, the upheaval it would create could spread to the eurozone's other weak links, including Italy and Spain. So soon after the Brexit, moreover, a Grexit would only deepen the European Union's turmoil and could influence elections elsewhere in the eurozone.The uncertainty has prompted the currency area's members to start exploring their options. On Thursday, for instance, the Dutch legislature authorized an inquiry into the Netherlands' future relationship with the euro. The formal trigger for the inquiry was concern over the effect that the European Central Bank's low-interest policies are having on Dutch savers and retirees. But the investigation, whose findings will be announced later in the year, will also try to answer questions such as whether and how the Netherlands could leave the eurozone. The inquiry reveals how seriously governments and parties throughout the currency area are taking the possibility of its demise.That the investigation was proposed by a centrist party, the Christian Democrats, and not by the Euroskeptic Party of Freedom suggests that it may be politically motivated. By

launching the investigation just before the March 15 elections, moderate parties may be trying to send voters the message that they, too, worry about the effect that the common currency and fiscal policies have had on their country's economy. At the same time, though, the inquiry shows that Dutch politicians are concerned about the currency area's future and want to know what their options will be in the event of a terminal crisis in the eurozone. Considering the threat of a referendum on eurozone membership in France, Italy or Greece, their fears are well-founded.The Netherlands is an important player in Northern Europe. Surrounded by Germany, France and the United Kingdom, the country centers much of its foreign policy on maintaining a balance of power in the region. Its views on how to govern the eurozone are generally close to those of Germany. The two countries, for example, have criticized plans to bail out countries in Southern Europe. Even so, the Netherlands understands the importance of the Franco-German alliance at the heart of the European Union and has been a main proponent of European integration over the past six decades. For this reason, the country is unlikely to act alone. Should the EU crisis accelerate, the Netherlands will probably try to align its policies with those of its traditional allies, Belgium and Luxembourg, and also with Germany's strategy.Germany, however, faces tough questions of its own. Though much of the country's electorate — and especially its conservative voters — disapprove of the Greek bailout program, the government in Berlin wants to prevent the crisis in Greece from escalating ahead of the September elections. Consequently, Athens will probably eventually reach an agreement with its lenders, if only a stop-gap to keep it from defaulting in the next six months. By comparison, the German government will have less influence over the situation in France and Italy, countries that pose a far more serious threat to the future of European integration. If Euroskeptic forces win power in France or Italy, Berlin would go into crisis mode and immediately try to reach an understanding with the new renegade governments in Paris or Rome. But some of their demands — such as the National Front's proposals to introduce tariffs on all imports into France or to tax companies that hire foreign workers, including EU nationals — will be difficult to accommodate without dismantling the Continental bloc in the process.The Netherlands' parliamentary inquiry shows that the dissolution of the eurozone, or at least its reconfiguration, is a possibility that governments are starting to factor in when assessing their options for the future. And the fact that a centrist group led the charge on the investigation reveals that Euroskeptic parties are no longer the only ones questioning the European Union's fate. In fact, back in 2015 the Dutch Cabinet discussed a plan to replace the passport-free Schengen area with a smaller bloc made up of countries in Northern Europe.



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When the eurozone was established, its main goal was to bring France and Germany so close together that another war between them would be unthinkable. But the arrangement has put its members in an impossible predicament. If the eurozone were to fall apart, its collapse would precipitate a steady estrangement between its members — especially France and Germany — jeopardizing the economic, political

and military order on the Continent. On the other hand, if the eurozone holds together and continues to engender resentment among voters and raise doubts among governments and financial markets, its continuity will be under permanent threat. The constant danger, in turn, would hurt Europe's economy and give rise to yet more radical nationalist and populist political movements in the future.

Top of the DocumentEU-RUO:170228:(28-FEB-17):In Europe's Borderlands, the Winds of Change Blow in Every DirectionStratfor 28-Feb-17Europe's borderlands are in flux. From the shores of the Baltic to the Black seas, and from the peaks of the Carpathians to the Caucasus mountains, each country in the borderlands between Europe and Russia is re-evaluating its foreign policy position in response to major geopolitical changes.On the west of this group, the European Union is roiled by divisions in the wake of the Brexit vote and intensifying nationalist sentiments, as crucial elections take shape this year in France, Germany and possibly Italy. On the east, Russia has the ear of the new U.S. administration, which is seeking to improve ties with Moscow as it focuses more on the homefront. Though a major reconciliation is a stretch, even the possibility of an understanding or realignment with the United States has enabled Russia to grow more assertive in its periphery. All of this is rumbling the geopolitical tectonic plates of the borderlands. With a dearth of geographic barriers separating them from Western Europe and Russia, the borderlands have always been susceptible to competing influences from both Moscow and the West. Historically, the results have produced dynamism and volatility across the political, economic and even military spectrums. From the collapse of the Russian and Austro-Hungarian empires to the disintegration of the Soviet Union to the wave of color revolutions in the post-Soviet era, these countries are no strangers to major geopolitical change and upheaval.Once again, the geopolitical winds are blowing strongly in and around the borderlands. These winds are blowing in different directions, however, and each of the borderlands countries — which include the Baltic states, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus and the countries of the Caucasus — is reacting to the shifting geopolitical circumstances differently. Some are choosing to pursue closer ties to Russia, others are doubling down on their bets on Western integration, and still others are attempting to walk a tightrope between Moscow and the West. Understanding what each country is doing to adapt to the fast-evolving geopolitical conditions and determining where they are headed requires examining the context of geography and national strategy across the region.Central EuropeIn the northern reach of the borderlands, the Baltic states and Poland are directly exposed to Russia. Sitting at the northeasternmost stretches of the North European Plain, Estonia and Latvia border the Russian mainland close to St. Petersburg, while Lithuania and Poland border Kaliningrad, a militarized Russian exclave right in the heart of the borderlands. These countries are quite vulnerable to Russian military power, as their history under Russian occupation

from the 18th to the 20th century attests. More recently, buildups of weaponry and frequent military exercises and overflights by Russian forces in both areas highlight this vulnerability. As members of the European Union and NATO, however, Poland and the Baltics have a layer of protection from Russia that a country like Ukraine lacks. NATO has recently strengthened that bulwark with the deployment of NATO troops to each country on a semi-permanent, rotational basis.Nevertheless, these countries are uneasy and cannot be certain of an indefinite NATO commitment, particularly since Donald Trump called the alliance "obsolete" while running for office before somewhat moderating his position as president. This has prompted Poland and the Baltics to build regional security collaboration in parallel to NATO by expanding military ties with Nordic countries such as Sweden and Finland and with neighboring Ukraine. Such efforts will intensify in the coming months and years as these countries seek an insurance policy in the event of a decline in NATO (and particularly U.S.) support.Moving south along the Central European borderlands, where the plain gives way to a more rugged landscape, a different vantage point emerges. Whereas Poland and the Baltic states are among the most vulnerable within the European Union and NATO when it comes to Russia, countries like Hungary, the Czech Republic and Slovakia enjoy more of a buffer from their large eastern neighbor. In addition to the absence of direct frontiers with Russia, these countries are also somewhat protected by the high altitude of the Carpathians, a mountain chain that snakes around their northern and eastern borders. Unlike Poland and the Baltics, the three countries were shielded from Russia for much of their history, only succumbing to Russian military power and political influence after World War II through the end of the Cold War. Not coincidentally, these states' relationship with Moscow is less antagonistic. Hungary in particular has been calling for a revision in EU ties with Russia, even advocating an end to the Russian sanctions regime. Until now the European Union has maintained unanimity when it comes to sanctions votes, but this year will see the most significant test to EU solidarity on the issue, especially if the United States lifts or eases its sanctions against Russia.The southernmost countries in Central Europe, Romania and Bulgaria, have less geographic protection from Russia given their position on the Black Sea, where Russia has also been building up its forces. Historically, Romania has been at odds with Russia over control and influence in Moldova, a former Romanian province seized by Russia in the 19th century. Bulgaria meanwhile has not had such territorial disputes with Russia, and so has had a more pragmatic relationship with Moscow. This dichotomy persists, with Romania embracing NATO plans to step up its activities and presence in the



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Black Sea area and Bulgaria less enthusiastic. Romania can thus be expected to increase its security engagement with NATO — as well as with regional partners like Poland — while Bulgaria will seek a more cooperative and less provocative relationship with Russia.Eastern EuropeMoving eastward along the borderlands, the picture becomes more complicated. With virtually no barriers separating them from Russia, the Eastern European states of Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus are even more geographically exposed to Russia than are their Central European counterparts. These countries are historically much more integrated with their large eastern neighbor, and none of these states are currently EU or NATO members. This means these countries have experienced even more dynamic shifts in their foreign policy in response to the geopolitical changes currently underway in the West.Russia's Evolving BorderlandsFreeThe country with perhaps the most to be concerned about is Ukraine, which abuts the Russian heartland and is arguably the most strategic country for both Moscow and the West in the former Soviet periphery. Since the Euromaidan uprising in 2014 that led to the replacement of a Russian-leaning president with a pro-Western government, Ukraine has relied on backing from both Europe and the United States in its standoff with Russia. That standoff has escalated to having Moscow occupy the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea and back an ongoing insurrection in eastern Ukraine. Kiev now must confront the prospect of potentially losing this backing, as Trump has said he would like to work more closely with Russia in areas such as Syria, even suggesting U.S. sanctions against Russia could be traded for cooperation on matters like nuclear arms reduction. Regardless of whether this comes to fruition, such talk is extremely alarming for Ukraine.Against this backdrop, escalated fighting in eastern Ukraine shortly after Trump's inauguration came as no surprise. Both Kiev and Moscow have an incentive to draw the new U.S. administration's attention to the conflict. They have sought to do this by creating enough instability to make it harder to say the conflict is frozen and therefore non-negotiable. Russia currently has the upper hand in this competition, having become involved in hot spots like Syria precisely to get the United States to the negotiating table on issues of greater strategic importance to Moscow, such as Ukraine.Meanwhile, EU leader Germany is still pressuring Russia to do more on its end to implement the Minsk protocols, the agreement intended to end the conflict in eastern Ukraine signed by Kiev, Moscow and Ukrainian separatists. But EU sanctions are becoming a source of division within the bloc, divisions that could widen depending on the outcome of upcoming elections in Europe. This leaves Ukraine in a precarious position in regards to its Western backing. Further erosion in Western support for it could occur as the year wears on, leaving Kiev looking for supplemental alliances with countries like Poland and the Baltics.Moldova, a small yet strategic borderlands country, is in the midst of a significant reorientation of its foreign policy. Like Ukraine, Moldova in recent years has pursued a Western integration strategy, signing an Association Agreement with the European Union in 2014. But growing public disillusion

with the country's pro-Western government led to the election to the presidency in November 2016 of pro-Russian Socialist leader Igor Dodon, who has advocated canceling the EU agreement and establishing closer economic and political ties with Russia. Though Dodon faces opposition to such efforts from a parliament led by an EU-oriented coalition, Moldova is on course to move closer to Russia and further from the West, a trend that could be sealed in Moldovan parliamentary elections next year.Though Russia's position relative to the West has improved in several states in the borderlands, it has had setbacks recently, too. Tensions have grown with Belarus, a country firmly within Moscow's alliance structure, over natural gas prices. Belarus' announcement that it was liberalizing its short-term visa policy for over 80 countries (including the EU states and United States) caused Russia to tighten border controls with Belarus. But exchanges of fierce rhetoric over these issues aside, the leaders of both Belarus and Russia have said their strategic alliance is not under threat, and indeed the two countries' bilateral security and military ties have grown in recent months. Nevertheless, Minsk's limited and gradual outreach to the West serves as a reminder to Moscow that its position in the borderlands is never fully secure, even among its most loyal allies.The CaucasusSwinging farther east and south to round out the European borderlands, the mountainous and fractious Caucasus region has also been significantly shaped by the Russia-West standoff and its evolution in recent months. Geographically speaking, the Greater and Lesser Caucasus mountain ranges present a degree of protection between Russia and the Caucasus countries. But such barriers are not impenetrable, as Russia's gradual incorporation of the South Caucasus into its empire starting in the 18th century proved. Though Moscow's control of the Caucasus ended with the collapse of the Soviet Union, independence did not make them invulnerable to Russian clout.This is particularly the case with Georgia, which has for the past decade been strongly oriented toward the West and has pursued closer integration with the European Union and NATO. This has placed it at odds with Russia. The two fought a short but sharp military conflict in August 2008, when Russia used the Soviet-era Roki Tunnel — one of a handful of routes transecting the Northern Caucasus Range — to invade its southern neighbor. It quickly built up, and still maintains, military positions in the Moscow-backed breakaway territories of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which comprise a fifth of Georgia's former territory. Georgia nonetheless remained committed to Western integration in subsequent years, signing an Association Agreement with the European Union in 2014 and opening a NATO training center on its territory in summer 2015.Changing geopolitical circumstances in recent months, however, have led the Georgian government to pursue a more pragmatic relationship with Russia. Tbilisi and Moscow have developed stronger economic and energy ties, while Georgia has floated plans to soften its punishing isolation of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. While Georgia is unlikely to abandon its Western integration efforts, it appears increasingly willing to work with Russia so long as it must question security commitments from the West.



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On the flip side, Armenia is a Moscow-dependent Russian ally in the borderlands that has seen its relationship with Moscow tested in recent months. Despite Armenia's membership in the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization military alliance and a 5,000-strong Russian troop presence on its territory, Moscow has been tenuous in its backing of Yerevan in Armenia's ongoing standoff with Azerbaijan. The key issue dividing the two neighbors is Nagorno-Karabakh, a strategic, mountainous and forested slice of what was part of Azerbaijan in Soviet times but that had an ethnic Armenian majority; it broke away in a 1994 war. The conflict still prompts cross-border shelling between the two countries. Russia adopted a neutral position following an escalation in hostilities last April, leaving Armenia disillusioned with Moscow over its lack of security and political backing in the conflict. Even so, Armenia's lack of alternative partners has left Yerevan no choice but to maintain its strategic alignment with Russia, and this despite the fact that security cooperation between Moscow and Baku has grown in recent months.Russia has in effect solidified its position as the main arbiter in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and Moscow is thus in a position to use the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict to further its strategic interests in both countries.

Azerbaijan has every interest in shaking up the status quo on Nagorno-Karabakh and is willing to work closely with Russia to move the conflict in a direction that reopens negotiations, since this could see territory returned to Azerbaijan — an aspiration Russia can play to its advantage to increase its influence in Azerbaijan. Armenia meanwhile cannot afford to make a big move on its own, especially since Russia is in control of its most strategic weapons systems. As the standoff lingers, neither side can make a big move in the conflict without reaching an understanding with Russia first.The sum of shifting dynamics means that both Russia and the West are seeing significant evolutions in their geopolitical positions, all of which have sent rumblings throughout the borderlands. As the trajectory of the U.S.-Russian relationship and Europe's own political situation changes, the tectonics of the borderlands are suddenly active again, with each of these countries reassessing their respective foreign policy positions in a way that corresponds to their geopolitical imperatives and national strategy. The problem for the borderlands — just as it has been for millennia and as it will continue to be — is that their fates lie outside their direct control, instead being shaped and influenced by external forces and the larger powers that hem them in.

Top of the DocumentEGE-US:170220:(28-FEB-17):On a Par (II)German Foreign Policy 20-Feb-17 At the Munich Security Conference last weekend, the German government assumed the role of an ally "on a par" with the United States. The chancellor and several ministers of Germany formulated conditions for continued cooperation with the US government, while holding out the prospect of a "stronger Europe," which, according to Germany's Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel, should be capable of independently "coping successfully" with the "reality of crises and wars outside the bounds of the European Union." Appropriate rearmament measures are being prepared. The chancellor conceives of a military budget increase of around eight percent annually, while the discussion on German-European nuclear arms is continuing. Publicists are hinting at the possibility of Berlin sharing influence over the Force de Frappe through co-financing France's nuclear arms arsenal. Berlin is still relying on the alliance with Washington, at least for the time being, because rearmament and access to nuclear arms take time."Stand with Europe"German foreign policy makers were relieved, when the US delegation to the Munich Security Conference reaffirmed Washington's commitment to the transatlantic war alliance, because statements by US President Donald Trump have repeatedly raised doubts. Already at the opening of the Conference on Friday evening, US Defense Minister James Mattis reported that, following initial disagreements Trump has "thrown now his full support to NATO." US Vice President Mike Pence declared: "on behalf of President Trump, I bring you this assurance: the United States of America strongly supports NATO and will be unwavering in our commitment to this transatlantic alliance." "This is President Trump's promise: we will stand with Europe today and every day," Pence continued. "The United States is now and will always be Europe's greatest ally."[1] US Senator John McCain, a foreign-policy hardliner and, in some

respects, Trump's strongest opponent, expressed similar views. In Munich, he declared, "We cannot give up on ourselves and on each other."[2]Self ConfidentWhereas Washington is committed to transatlantic cooperation, Berlin is using the opportunity, provided by the massive international rejection of Trump's chauvinist policy, to position itself "on a par" with the United States, as was explicitly pronounced by Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel in an interview on the eve of the opening of the Munich Security Conference.[3] At the conference, Gabriel, Defense Minister, Ursula von der Leyen and Chancellor Merkel were posturing themselves as the guardians of "western values" - as opposed to the USA. There should be no "room for torture,"[4] said von der Leyen, in reference to Trump's considering the reintroduction of torture. Albeit, the minister did not utter a word about German government bodies' complicity in the CIA's kidnapping suspects, taking them to torture chambers. That would also implicate Germany's current President.[5] Foreign Minister Gabriel made a plea for a "stronger Europe," which, in the future, must be capable of independently - i. e. without the USA - "coping successfully with the reality of crises and wars outside the bounds of the European Union."[6] Subsequently, a leading German daily praised the German government for having "given the impression in Munich of self confidently seeking to confront on a par its most important ally with its own concepts."[7]Eight Percent AnnuallyIn Munich, the chancellor explicitly explained why Berlin still depends on an alliance with Washington: "We need the United 'States of America's military might."[8] However, she also insisted that the Federal Republic of Germany will greatly augment its military budget to two percent of its



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gross domestic product. Merkel admitted, nevertheless, that more than an annual 8 percent increase - corresponding to the 2017 defense budget increase in relationship to that of 2016 - would hardly be sustainable. Germany will therefore reach the recommended two percent of the GDP level somewhat later than demanded. Until then foreign and development policy budgetary obligations must be taken into consideration, insisted Merkel. Berlin's 2017 military budget is at 37 billion euros. Two percent of Germany's GDP would currently be €62 billion. Moreover, to strengthen the military capability of its armed forces, the German government strives for the further integration of foreign troops in the Bundeswehr [9] and otherwise promotes the formation of the EU's military component [10].The BombFurthermore, experts and publicists are intensifying demands for a German-European nuclear weapons capability, which, following Donald Trump's electoral victory have been raised in Germany. (german-foreign-policy.com reported.[11]) In the immediate run-up to the Munich Security Conference, the Bundeswehr's former PR specialist, Jan Techau, declared that "in a few years, Germany will be confronted with foreign and security policy issues that the country, today, would not even dare to dream of," for example, the question of how to "prevent vulnerability to nuclear blackmail," if the USA is no longer prepared to open its "nuclear umbrella" over the EU. "Is there enough confidence in the European political market to rely entirely on France and Great Britain?" Techau asks. Today, Techau is Director of the Richard C. Holbrooke Forum for the Study of Diplomacy and Governance at

Berlin's American Academy. "How is a country, with such a great hunger for moral clarity, supposed to deal with the weapon, considered to be the most immoral weapon of them all?"[12] Techau's article expounds on widely held misgivings about nuclear weapons - to invalidate each systematically."Nuclear Blackmail"The internet portal of the weekly "Die Zeit" sees it similarly. The journal also asks "if Europe must take up nuclear arms, if Donald Trump closes the nuclear umbrella?" The article continues, saying that "Nuclear strategists" point out that France and Great Britain have nuclear weapons, "with which they could theoretically also shoulder guarantees for other countries." That, however, would alter "the European relations of power ... in their favor." This would open the "playing field to political blackmail of every sort."[13] "The Germans" may "soon be confronted with a hard choice," the authors allege. "Either they financially participate in the modernization of the French Force de Frappe and receive," - in return for their financial support - "a limited influence over a Europeanized French nuclear policy," or they "consider Donald Trump ... a reliable partner, who will guarantee Europe's security." The readers of "Die Zeit," as well as a large portion of the German public consider the latter to be out of the question.[Footnotes to articles in German removed] [1] Trump-Vize an Europäer: "Werden an eurer Seite stehen". www.zeit.de 18.02.2017. [5] See A President's Policy. [10] See The European War Union and The European War Union (II). [11] See Reaching for the Bomb.

Top of the DocumentUK:170220:(28-FEB-17):Study Improves UK Atlantic Margin ProspectsNatural Gas World 20-Feb-17Analysis by geologists at Aberdeen University of the Rockall Basin, offshore northwest Scotland, has revealed previously unknown insights that could aid oil and gas exploration in the North Atlantic, and could lead to new oil and gas discoveries in the UK continental shelf (UKCS).By studying the latest seismic data supplied by the Oil and Gas Authority (OGA) and employing lessons learned elsewhere in the UKCS, geologists from the university have gained a clearer understanding of the Rockall basin where of 12 wells drilled, but only one gas discovery was made.Dr Nick Schofield who led the analysis, funded by a £250,000 award from UK regulator Oil and Gas Authority (OGA), said February 17: “Our analysis has revealed that one of the barriers to success may have been a misunderstanding of the sub-surface geology. By analysing seismic data provided by the OGA and Petroleum Geo-

Services (PGS), and using what we have learned through our work in the Faroe-Shetland Basin, we found that the character of areas where operators hoped to find oil may have been misleading.”Analysis of the Rockall Basin has revealed previously unknown insights that could aid oil and gas exploration in the North Atlantic, says Aberdeen University's Dept. of Geology and Petroleum Geology (Photo credit: the university)Dr Schofield’s paper, Challenges of future exploration within the UK Rockall Basin, is available to view online here.The new data on which the analysis was based was provided from the OGA’s £20mn seismic campaign of the UKCS Rockall and Mid-North Sea High areas completed by WesternGeco in October 2015.

Top of the DocumentTU-RU-NATO:170222:(28-FEB-17):Turkey mulls purchase of Russian air defense systemDefenseNews 22-Feb-17In what would be a snub to NATO, the Turkish government has said it may buy the Russian-made S-400 for its near-mystery program to build the country's first long-range air and anti-missile defense system. Defense Minister Fikri Isik said Feb. 22 that talks between Turkey and Russia for the potential acquisition of the S-400 system "made quite [the] progress." "The S-400 [system] looks like the closest option," Isik said. But the minister cautioned that "we are not at a stage of signing a deal tomorrow." Isik said that Turkey's

priority was to indigenously develop a system that would permanently protect Turkey against any attack.Isik's statement came when the three-nation group that builds the Medium Extended Air Defense System, or MEADS, was offering Turkey what looks like a customized partnership to construct a long-range air defense architecture for the country. Turkey and the MEADS group have been in talks for a potential deal since last April.



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The United States, Germany and Italy developed the ground-mobile air and missile defense system intended to replace the Patriot missile system through a NATO program. They jointly spent $4 billion for the development of the system.For its long-range air defense system, dubbed T-LORAMIDS, Turkey in September 2013 selected China Precision Machinery Import-Export Corporation's $3.44 billion solution, which defeated rival bids from Eurosam, maker of the SAMP/T; a consortium of Lockheed Martin and

Raytheon, maker of the Patriot system; and the Russian-made S-300/S-400 option.In its 2013 assessment, Turkey's procurement officials found the Russian offer "exorbitantly expensive." Under pressure from its NATO allies, Turkey later scrapped the preliminary deal with CPMIEC and the competition.Since then Ankara has held talks with the Western contenders, but it also commissioned two domestic state-controlled companies, Aselsan and Roketsan, to locally develop the system.

Top of the Document UKB-EU:170224:(28-FEB-17):Juncker on Brexit: “They will have to cover the cost”New Europe 24-Feb-17“We first have to agree on what we want to do together,” adds Juncker regarding the EU’s futureJust a month after European Union’s 60th anniversary in Rome, the Commission head Jean-Claude Juncker is determined to table a White Paper that will shape the common future of the remaining 27 member states.The EU, a safe alternative for troubled democracies since the 70s, may hold the answers for the future. First Greece, Portugal and Spain, then a few countries in Central and Eastern Europe, chose the EU “in order to definitively anchor their young democracies after years of despair and dictatorship,” Juncker professed to a student audience at the packed amphitheatre of the Catholic Univeristy of Louvain-la-Neuve.“Peace is never guaranteed,” Juncker said, urging them to keep an open eye out for Europe’s perpetual problems. “Our strength will be in remaining open to the world and not hesitating to seize the wealth of opportunities in front of us which will allow us to create jobs for our citizens, all the while safeguarding our values and norms.”During the speech, he justified negotiations on the controversial trade deals between the EU, Japan, Malaysia, Australia, New Zealand and South Africa. The deals may not be popular among EU citizens, but the EU’s negotiating power secures jobs and growth for the bloc’s SMEs.Europe’s future at stake “Europe is determined to remain a democratic unity, open and plural, but uncompromising on the security of its citizens,” Juncker said to the young students, emphasizing his determination that the future of Europe be built on their ambition, solidarity, openness and tolerance.EU security and NATO: “2% of GDP to defence won’t happen from one day to the next”“I did not wait for the Americans to say that it is crucial that Europe take its own security into its own hands,” EU’s executive chief said.

As for the EU-NATO members, Juncker does not expect this commitment to be reality tomorrow.“Security is also not only a question of defence spending. Security is also development aid and the support, under different forms, that we give to third countries – which constitutes some €6 billion euros of the EU’s annual budget,” he said.Juncker’s White Paper: “Economic and Monetary Union is irreversible, € is here to stay, our principles and values are non-negotiable.”“We first have to agree on what we want to do together,” Juncker said, asking for a debate with “no taboos and open to all.”“The Commission will soon present a White Paper. This is not going to be any kind of Bible but is intended to open a process which will allow the European Union at 27 to carve out its own future,” Juncker added, putting limits on what could be delivered: “We should not promise the sun and the moon but ensure every commitment we make will be fulfilled. The choices we make today will determine our future and the legacy we leave to our children.”Brexit: Not happy or easy“It will be complicated, but we are ready and we have the necessary expertise and good will to deal with this unprecedented process,” he said about the new relationship with the U.K. that would be built after the separation is settled.“It will have taken the UK not less than nine months between the Referendum and sending the notification, so do not be surprised when it takes the EU a few weeks after negotiation to go through our internal process to open the negotiations,” he added.What about the cost?“They have to cover the cost,” said the EU Commission chief, clarifying that this would be one of the first points of negotiation.

Top of the DocumentIS-IN:170224:(28-FEB-17):India Clears $2.6 Billion Air Defense System Purchase From IsraelSputnik 24-Feb-17India is also negotiating with Russia for long range air defense system S-400 which is expected to be finalized next month.S-400 regiment enters on duty in CrimeaIn a bid to expedite the overhauling of obsolete air defense system, Indian government has approved a budget of $2.6

billion for the acquisition of Medium Range Surface to Air Defense Missile Systems from Israel. Sources told Sputnik that this acquisition for the Indian Army will be in line with ongoing India-Israel LRSAM and MRSAM projects for Indian Navy and Indian Air Force respectively. The system is jointly developed by India and Israel and will intercept aerial threats at range up to 70 Kilometer. According to



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approved proposal, Indian Army will start receiving the missile system by 2023. A total of 40 firing units and over 200 missiles are proposed for induction in the Indian armed forces.The project will be completed in India under the guidance of Defense Research Development Organization. Bharat Dynamics is expected to produce the system whereas private sector companies like Tata Power SED and Larson & Turbo are likely to participate for supplying components for the missile system.“For long range missile systems, we are in talks with Russia for S-400, but in medium range there is a clear gap and threat is actually that, medium range threat is more. All the combat formations that are moving around, they require cover then staging area of the army, consultation areas of the army, tactical assembly areas of the army; they require coverage. Airfields also require coverage. Vulnerable areas and points require air defense coverage. MRSAM is important kind of

an acquisition. Equally important is the fact that it will be Make in India product,” says Brigadier Rumel Dahiya (retired), a renowned defense analyst.India’s air defense has received a major setback in the recent past as there has not been any major acquisition except for some for short range Akash missile system. “This is not sufficient. A long time back, we had taken some air defense missile systems from Russia, that was three decades back,” Dahiya added.MRSAM will be an important component of India’s Cold Start doctrine. Cold Start doctrine is considered as retaliatory offensive arrangement along western border through which Indian armed forces can hit specific targets of rivals in limited duration. Indian Army had been continuously requisitioning for MRSAM since a long time back to defend mechanized formations operating in the plains and desert regions of the country.

Top of the DocumentEU-IS-ECY:170224:(28-FEB-17):ENERGY: EU backs EuroAsia Interconnector with €14.5m for pre-works studyFinancial Mirror 24-Feb-17The European Commission has announced its full backing for the EuroAsia Interconnector ‘electricity highway’, the biggest electricity infrastructure project in Europe, by providing financial support for the final pre-works study.EuroAsia Interconnector, the project promoter of the Israel-Cyprus-Crete-Attica electricity interconnector, welcomed the decision taken by the EU member states to agree on February 17, to the Commission’s proposal to invest €444 mln in 18 priority European energy infrastructure projects .The interconnector is one of the seven selected electricity projects that have received funding and the only North-South electricity interconnection in the Central Eastern and South Eastern Europe Priority Corridor (NSI East Electricity). The project will contribute to achieving the Energy Union’s goals of connecting European energy networks, increasing security of energy supply, and contributing to the sustainable development by integrating renewable energy sources across the EU.This is a European Union ‘project of common interest’ (PCI) and has been approved to receive €14.5 mln for the Final Detailed Studies Prior to Project Implementation.Under the Connecting Europe Facility, a total of €5.35 bln has been allocated to trans-European energy infrastructure for the period 2014-2020, according to the European Commission. In order to be eligible for a grant, a proposal has to be a PCI.

The final transfer capacity of the Interconnector will be 2,000MW with an interconnection between Hadera (Israel) and Kofinou (Cyprus), an interconnection between Kofinou (Cyprus) and Korakia, Crete (Greece), and an internal line between Korakia, Crete and Attica region (Greece).Pre-construction works will commence in 2017 and the completion of the first 1,000MW interconnection between Israel – Cyprus – Greece will take place in 2022, ending the energy isolation of both Cyprus and Crete.Enjoying the unwavering support of the governments of Cyprus, Greece and Israel, the project promoter is continuing unabated with the timely implementation of the EuroAsia Interconnector in accordance to the agreed schedules for all three steps of the 1,520 km ‘electricity highway’.The interconnector also allows the EU to be securely be supplied with electricity produced by the gas reserves in Cyprus and Israel, as well as from the available renewable energy sources through an uninterrupted – multidirectional flow of energy, contributing at the same time to the completion of the European internal market and achieving the EU target for 10% of electricity interconnection between member states.The project also contributes to the reduction of CO2 emissions and is expected to contribute with significant economic and geopolitical benefits to the involved countries and provide significant socio-economic benefits in the range of €10 billion.

Top of the DocumentIS:170224:(28-FEB-17):Leviathan development costs to be covered in three yearsNatural Gas World .24-Feb-17US producer Noble Energy said February 24 it would recoup its expected $1.5bn costs of Leviathan development in three years' time, even though sales contracts signed so far account for under half the targeted amount. The total budget is estimated at $3.75bn and Noble is operator with 39.66%.In the stock exchange filing regarding the final investment decision it said it will develop four subsea wells, each capable of flowing more than 300mn ft³/d of gas which will

go 117 km to a 22,000 metric ton fixed platform, 10 km offshore Israel. Processed gas will connect to the Israel Natural Gas Lines onshore transportation grid in the northern part of the country and to regional markets via onshore export pipelines.This will be Israel's second entry point and will enhance gas supply security. The approved development plan, according



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to Noble, allows for significant future cost-effective expansion from its initial 1.2bn ft³/d capacity to 2.1bn ft³/d. Noble's $1.5bn investment includes about $100mn already spent in 2016 and $200mn pre-investment in for future platform expansion.Noble is now finalising the major project contracts and started on long lead materials procurement. Noble Energy and partners anticipate drilling one to two Leviathan development wells in 2017. Completion activity for all four producer wells, including two previously drilled, is anticipated in 2018. The company expects to complete project installation and initiate commissioning in the fourth quarter of 2019, with delivery of first gas targeted for the end of 2019.Noble reports that gas supply agreements (GSA) have been confirmed for 525mn ft³/d, which is less than half the targeted 1+bn ft³/d but they are worth over $15bn over their lifetime. The anchor GSA, with Jordan's Nepco is estimated at $10bn in 15 years. Another $2bn contract was signed with Daliot Energy, for a power generation facility whose construction has yet to be approved. Daliot Energy has the option to reduce quantities by 50%.Noble estimates blended sales price realisation for the domestic and regional markets at $5.50-$6/mn Btu based on current Brent prices. Gas export would be Brent indexed

while domestic sales are responsive to the regulatory Natural Gas Framework.Operating cash flow for the first year following startup is projected to be at least $650mn net.Noble, which last year enjoyed from a $750mn free cash flow from its Israeli businesses said it can fund Leviathan phase one from its Tamar operating cash flows as well as eastern Mediterranean portfolio proceeds. Regional portfolio proceeds received to-date total about $575mn net. Noble is also securing access to a financing facility for additional funding flexibility."Sanction and development of Leviathan build on recent portfolio milestones and reinforce our focus on high-margin growth," CEO David Stover said. "Leviathan will generate robust project economics, have strong investment efficiency, and provide long-term cash flows. With 40 trillion ft³ gross recoverable resources discovered by Noble Energy in the region, we can continue to grow our eastern Mediterranean business for decades. This includes material additional development beyond phase one at Leviathan."Among the possible destinations for the gas is Egypt, where two liquefaction plants stand idle. The giant Zohr field and other major developments have the potential to turn Egypt into a gas exporter once more.

Top of the DocumentTU:170216:(28-FEB-17):Turkey's Record-breaking Academic PurgeThe Gatestone Institute 16-Feb-17A Turkish university these days, expanding on historian Shelby Foote's famous quip, is "just a group of buildings gathered around a library," a mosque, and classrooms cleansed of unwanted scholars.The "Great Turkish Purge" launched by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Islamist, autocratic government in the aftermath of a coup attempt in July surprised many in its size. It should not have done. The failed putsch gave Erdogan's government a golden opportunity to advance his crackdown on dissent of every kind. No wonder Erdogan, on the night of the attempt, said: "This [coup attempt] is a gift of God."In its annual "Freedom in the World" report, the Washington-based Freedom House said on January 31 that Turkey suffered the largest decline in freedoms among 195 countries over the past year. Turkey's aggregate score declined 15 points to 38 out of 100 (the most free) -- from having been in 53rdplace in the 2016 report. It did manage to maintain its "partly free" status together with 59 other countries. "[A]n attempted coup in July... led the government to declare a state of emergency and carry out mass arrests and firings of civil servants, academics, journalists, opposition figures, and other perceived enemies," the report said.According to Freedom House, Turkey suffered the world's largest decline in freedom over the past year.Education Minister Ismet Yilmaz said that a total of 33,065 personnel have been dismissed from his ministry, most of them teachers, educators and administrative staff. Of those purged, 3,855 have been detained on charges of "terrorism".Qualitatively speaking, the situation at Turkish universities is no better. Most university presidents, appointed by Erdogan, staunchly ally with his party politics and dismiss academics they view as "Erdogan's political adversaries."

In the aftermath of a military coup d'état on September 12, 1980 (the third time the military took over in modern Turkish history), the generals issued decree no. 1402, dismissing a total of 120 scholars from the universities. By comparison, on February 7, Turkey's "civilian" government issued a decree purging 330 scholars from universities. Erdogan's public sector purge now amounts to around 100,000 officials, including nearly 5,000 university scholars. In other words, Erdogan's academic purge is 38 times bigger in size than the generals' after the 1980 coup. According to data compiled by Turkey Purge, PEN International, the Committee to Protect Journalists and the Stockholm Center for Freedom, 128,398 people have been sacked, while 91,658 are being detained.An estimated 91,658 people are being detained and 128,398 have been sacked in Turkey's purge.Worse, neither the academics on the purge list nor their students were allowed to protest peacefully. Their attempted protest on February 10 at the School of Political Sciences in Ankara met a huge police force and was crushed. In the brawl, the police attacked the crowd; many in it were injured, manhandled, trapped in their robes and dragged along the ground.One of the purged, Professor Yuksel Taskin, from an Istanbul department of journalism, tweeted: "This is a pure political 'cleansing.' But my conscience is clear. Let my students know that I shall never, ever bow down!"Emre Tansu Keten, from the same school, wrote: "I am simply proud to be in the same list along with my senior colleagues who are thrown out because of the opinion they expressed."Turkish journalist Yavuz Baydar commented:

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Widening more by each and every decree, this is now a country resembling Germany of 1930, which ended up chasing out its elite beyond its borders. What I know for certain, that there will no longer be any possibilities for our academicians 'cleansed' to find work and, live in decency and honor.Baydar is not the only person to feel that the situation in Turkey increasingly resembles Nazi Germany. Melih Kirlidog, a Turkish scholar specializing in internet censorship and surveillance, said: "It resembles the atmosphere of 1933 Germany to me."Similarly, prominent Turkish novelist Zulfu Livaneli, who was imprisoned several times during the 1971 coup in

Turkey, thinks the comparison is justified: "Some [scholars] resist, some collaborate with the regime so as to continue their work, and some turn a blind eye in silence."After he came to power in November 2002, Erdogan promised to make Turkey a land of freedoms, devoid of the military's tutelage. Since then, he has tamed the once-secular military establishment. Nevertheless, his Islamist "land of freedoms" vision has only been partially materialized: You have all the freedoms you want -- so long as you are a pro-Erdogan Islamist. Burak Bekdil is an Ankara-based political analyst and a fellow at the Middle East Forum.

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Euractiv - Bible Truth & Prophecybibletruthandprophecy.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/... · Web view2017/02/28 · Similarly, prominent Turkish novelist Zulfu Livaneli, who was