Europe in 2030: The Crisis Aftermath Implications for Spatial Strategies

Andreu Ulied, MCRITESPON Scenarios and Vision project, ET2050 Lead Partner

ESPON 2013 Open Seminar : Territorial Co-operation for growth13 and 14 June 2013 Dublin Castle

• What may be the Crisis Aftermath from now to 2030? Regional Disparities?, Global Opennes?, Spatial Polarisation?

• Which Territorial Strategy for Europe up to 2050?

• How European Cohesion policy should be reformed?

Questions to be discussed:

• Politecnico Milano: modelling 2010-2030 Baseline Scenario with MASST3 model

• S&W modelling 2010-2050 Exploratory Scenarios with SASI model

• Reference World Scenario by MCRIT

Answers mostly based on ET2050 modelling results...

The Crisis Aftermath... + Regional Disparities?

GDP Growth 2008-2030 by MASST3

GDP 2008-2017 (International Monetary Fond)

Relative change in GDP per capita 2000-2008/2030

GDP/Cap divergence for selected economies

Total Employment Change 2010-2030

Population Change 2010-2030 (due to Labour Migration...)

Ageing 2010-2030

The Crisis Aftermath... + Global Openness?

0

100.000

200.000

300.000

400.000

500.000

600.000

700.000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Germany Trade in M€

export - extraEU27 export - intraEU27 import - extraEU27 import - intraEU27

Trade by companies located in Germany (M€)

EUROSTAT

0

20.000

40.000

60.000

80.000

100.000

120.000

140.000

160.000

180.000

200.000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Spain Trade in M€

export - extraEU27 export - intraEU27 import - extraEU27 import - intraEU27

Trade by companies located in Spain (M€)

-40.000

-20.000

0

20.000

40.000

60.000

80.000

100.000

120.000

Brazil Canada China (except Hong Kong)

Japan Offshore financial centers

Russia United States

Accumulated FDI stock in M€ (2008)

France Italy Spain United Kingdom Germany

Spain UK

Germany

UK

France

Foreign Investments of EU companies

EUROSTAT

The Crisis Aftermath... + Spatial Polarisation?

Source : DREWRY, 2008

America Asia

13,3 MTEU

6,7 MTEU

20 MTEU

2,2 MTEU

2,2 MTEU4,4 MTEU

13,3 MTEU

5,1 MTEU

18,4 MTEU

Europe

World maritime container traffic. 2008*

Top 10 ports 2009

Evolution of Global Accessibility 2010-2030

Evolution of European Accessibility 2010-2030

1) End of Economic Convergence in Europe…

2) Increasing Regional Gaps…

3) Lower Average Salaries and Social Disparities...

4) More Labour Mobility in Europe…

5) Global Reorientation of European Economies… 6) More Polarisation in European Global Gateways…

Key Baseline Conclusions...

1. What may be the Crisis Aftermath from now to 2030?

2. Which European Territorial Strategy up to 2050?

3. How European Cohesion policies could be reformed?

Second Question...

Exploratory Scenarios and Variants for 2050

Spatial orientation ofthe scenarios

Framework conditions

Baseline

1Economic

decline

2Technicaladvance

3Energy/Climateimpacts

Promotion of metropolitan areas A A1 A2 A3

Promotion of large European cities B B1 B2 B3

Promotion of peripheral regions and medium cities

C C1 C2 C3

Exploratory Scenarios and Variants for 2050

Values for 2051

Framework conditions and policies

BaselineScenario

1Economic

decline

2Technicaladvance

3Energy/climate

Population (mio) 541.7 541.7 541.7 541.7

GDP (mio € of 2010) 22,800*

GDP 2013-2051 (% p.a.) +1.5*

GDP/worker (€ of 2010) 99,300* 99,300* 144,000*

EU Subsidies (% of GDP) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Fuel price/litre (€ of 2010) 3.20 3.20 3.20 10.20

Values for 2051

Framework conditions and policies

BaselineScenario

1Economic

decline

2Technicaladvance

3Energy/climate

Population (mio) 541.7 541.7 541.7 541.7

GDP (mio € of 2010) 22,800*

GDP 2013-2051 (% p.a.) +1.5*

GDP/worker (€ of 2010) 99,300* 99,300* 144,000*

EU Subsidies (% of GDP) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4

Fuel price/litre (€ of 2010) 3.20 3.20 3.20 10.20

ET2050 scenario variants: main assumptions

* plus generative effects

Cohesion and Structural Funds 2000-06 / 2050

GDP 1981-2051 (1981=100)

Highest and Lowest Growth Scenarios for 2050?

Cohesion: CoV of GDP/capita 1981-2051

2007 Crisis

Highest Divergence and Highest Convergence?

National polycentricity EU12 1981-2051

Polycentrism

C2A3

Highest Divergence and Highest Convergence?

Policy Evaluation

28Sustainability indicators will also be computed by SASI (Energy use & CO2 emissions)

Scenario

Competitiveness Cohesion Sustainability

GDP/capita(€ of 2010)

2051

Change inGDP/capita2013-2051

% p.a.

Coefficientof variationGDP/capita

2051

Nationalpoly-

centricity2051

Energy use2051

CO2emis-sions 2051

Baseline 42,897 +1.371 50.5 65.1

A A1A2A3

44,00031,76653,55442,136

+1.439+0.573+1.965+1.323

54.754.650.956.0

62.162.162.163.4

BB1B2B3

43,46731,38252,92141,701

+1.406+0.541+1.933+1.296

50.950.747.252.1

65.265.265.365.9

CC1C2C3

43,08331,10552,43641,385

+1.383+0.517+1.908+1.275

50.350.146,551.5

65.765.765.866.4

Scenario

Competitiveness Cohesion Sustainability

GDP/capita(€ of 2010)

2051

Change inGDP/capita2013-2051

% p.a.

Coefficientof variationGDP/capita

2051

Nationalpoly-

centricity2051

Energy use2051

CO2emis-sions 2051

Baseline 42,897 +1.371 50.5 65.1

A A1A2A3

44,00031,76653,55442,136

+1.439+0.573+1.965+1.323

54.754.650.956.0

62.162.162.163.4

BB1B2B3

43,46731,38252,92141,701

+1.406+0.541+1.933+1.296

50.950.747.252.1

65.265.265.365.9

CC1C2C3

43,08331,10552,43641,385

+1.383+0.517+1.908+1.275

50.350.146,551.5

65.765.765.866.4

C2

B2

A2

According to Danuta Huebner, referring to her native Poland, an EU member since 2004:

"It is a different country now. That's thanks to European contributions"

How Cohesion polices could be reformed?

• + Sensitivity to economic cycles?

• + Local, Regional and National institutional empowerment?

• + Place-based focus towards endogenous development?

• + More Local and Regional Infrastructure Endowment?

• + Land-Use Regulations adopted in vulnerable areas?

• + Investments to Neighboring Countries?

How Cohesion polices may be reformed?

“Too seek Europe, is to make it! Europe exists through its search for the infinit

-and this is what I call adventure”

Zygmunt Bauman, “An Adventure called Europe”

Further information:ulied@mcrit.com

www.et2050.eu (working documents)

www.espon.eu