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European Lakes Under Environmental Stressors
(Supporting lake governance to mitigate the impact of climate change)
Impact of climate change on water balance of a large flow-through
lake (case study - Lake Charzykowskie)
Dr Barbara Nowicka, Marta Bałandin
This project is implemented through the CENTRAL EUROPE Programme co-financed by the ERDF
Dresden, 25.09.2011
The scientific work was financed by the funds for science in 2011-2013 granted for the
implementation of an international co-funded Project
Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute
Barbara Nowicka, Marta Bałandin
2 Dresden, 25.09.2011 Impact of climate change on water balance of a large flow-through lake (case study - Lake Charzykowskie)
Neusiedl
Balaton Garda
Charzykowskie Lake
Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute
Barbara Nowicka, Marta Bałandin
3 Dresden, 25.09.2011 Impact of climate change on water balance of a large flow-through lake (case study - Lake Charzykowskie)
Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute
Barbara Nowicka, Marta Bałandin
4 Dresden, 25.09.2011 Impact of climate change on water balance of a large flow-through lake (case study - Lake Charzykowskie)
Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute
Barbara Nowicka, Marta Bałandin
5 Dresden, 25.09.2011 Impact of climate change on water balance of a large flow-through lake (case study - Lake Charzykowskie)
Powierzchnia [ha] 1357
Objętość [mln m3] 139
Głębokość max [m] 29
Głębokość średnia [m] 10
Długość max [m] 9988
Szerokość max [m] 2429
Długość linii brzegowej [m] 32632
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0 5 10 15 20 25
Depth
[m
]
Temp. [°C]
Oxygen [mg/l]
Trophic classification using indicator principles
Mezotrophic – eutrophic
bathymetric curve
Thermic cycle - dimictic
Area [ha] 1357
Volume [mln
m3] 139
Depth max [m] 29
Depth avarage [m] 10
Length max [m] 9988
Width max [m] 2429
Shorezone lenght [m] 32632
Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute
Barbara Nowicka, Marta Bałandin
6 Dresden, 25.09.2011 Impact of climate change on water balance of a large flow-through lake (case study - Lake Charzykowskie)
Glacial genesis after: B. Nowaczyk, 1994
glacial erosion
dune and deflation hollow
delta (sand –river accumulation)
dead-ice-block
biogenic lake deposit
sand water accumulation
clay – glacial accumulation
melting dead-ice-block
dead-ice-block
16800 BP
16200 -14500 BP
<12 700 BP
<9200 BP
Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute
Barbara Nowicka, Marta Bałandin
7 Dresden, 25.09.2011 Impact of climate change on water balance of a large flow-through lake (case study - Lake Charzykowskie)
Karsińskie
Lake
Charzykowskie
Lake
Długie
Lake
water
level
- 3÷3,8 m
history present
Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute
Barbara Nowicka, Marta Bałandin
8 Dresden, 25.09.2011 Impact of climate change on water balance of a large flow-through lake (case study - Lake Charzykowskie)
Charzykowskie Lake
water level:
- 5,3m
volume:
– 60 mln m3
future
Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute
Barbara Nowicka, Marta Bałandin
9 Dresden, 25.09.2011 Impact of climate change on water balance of a large flow-through lake (case study - Lake Charzykowskie)
Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute
Barbara Nowicka, Marta Bałandin
10 Dresden, 25.09.2011 Impact of climate change on water balance of a large flow-through lake (case study - Lake Charzykowskie)
Regionalny model klimatyczny Cosmo-CLM,
SCENARIO
A1B
Prognoza after : Züger J., Knoflacher M., 2011
Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute
Barbara Nowicka, Marta Bałandin
11 Dresden, 25.09.2011 Impact of climate change on water balance of a large flow-through lake (case study - Lake Charzykowskie)
Regionalny model klimatycznego Cosmo-CLM,
SCENARIO
A1B
Prognoz after : Züger J., Knoflacher M., 2011
Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute
Barbara Nowicka, Marta Bałandin
12 Dresden, 25.09.2011 Impact of climate change on water balance of a large flow-through lake (case study - Lake Charzykowskie)
Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute
Barbara Nowicka, Marta Bałandin
13 Dresden, 25.09.2011 Impact of climate change on water balance of a large flow-through lake (case study - Lake Charzykowskie)
MPHP, 2009
Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute
Barbara Nowicka, Marta Bałandin
14 Dresden, 25.09.2011 Impact of climate change on water balance of a large flow-through lake (case study - Lake Charzykowskie)
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
SPI
Years
Extremely dry period
Extremely humid period
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
1 9
61
1 9
63
1 9
65
1 9
67
1 9
69
1 9
71
1 9
73
1 9
75
1 9
77
1 9
79
1 9
81
1 9
83
1 9
85
1 9
87
1 9
89
1 9
91
1 9
93
1 9
95
1 9
97
1 9
99
2 0
01
2 0
03
2 0
05
2 0
07
2 0
09
Cu
mu
lati
ve
cu
rve
(P-P
sr)
m
m
2%
45%
3%
48%
2%
0%
2%
40%
8%
48%
2%
0%
Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute
Barbara Nowicka, Marta Bałandin
15
Dresden, 25.09.2011 Impact of climate change on water balance of a large flow-through lake (case study - Lake Charzykowskie)
extremaly
dry period
1992 210 mln m3
1974-2009 254 mln m3
2%
43%
5%
48%
2% 0%
P Hri Hgi-Hgo Hro E R1-R2
humid
period
2002 296 mln m3
Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute
Barbara Nowicka, Marta Bałandin
16
Dresden, 25.09.2011 Impact of climate change on water balance of a large flow-through lake (case study - Lake Charzykowskie)
-25000
-20000
-15000
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
19
74
19
76
19
78
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
mm
Years
XI-X
Outflow Brda
Inflow Jarcewska Struga
Inflow Struga Siedmiu Jezior
Inflow Czerwona Woda
Inflow Brda
89%
3%2%
6%XI-X
Brda Ciecholewy
Czerwona Woda -Kopernica
Struga Siedmiu Jezior
Jarcewska Struga
Inflow Outflow
mln m3
Average 218 246
Max 282 311
Min 160 196
Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute
Barbara Nowicka, Marta Bałandin
17 Dresden, 25.09.2011 Impact of climate change on water balance of a large flow-through lake (case study - Lake Charzykowskie)
Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute
Barbara Nowicka, Marta Bałandin
18 Dresden, 25.09.2011 Impact of climate change on water balance of a large flow-through lake (case study - Lake Charzykowskie)
-600,00
-400,00
-200,00
0,00
200,00
400,00
600,00
800,00
1000,00
1-1
0-9
9
1-2
-00
1-6
-00
1-1
0-0
0
1-2
-01
1-6
-01
1-1
0-0
1
1-2
-02
1-6
-02
1-1
0-0
2
1-2
-03
1-6
-03
1-1
0-0
3
1-2
-04
1-6
-04
1-1
0-0
4
(m
m)
date
Potential water level
Charzykowskie Lake
Małe Gacno
Wielkie Gacno
Ostrowite Lake
Δt = 1 month
Lake sensitivity for atmospheric exchange
Phase of water resources renawal based period1999-2004
flow through lake
without flow lake
without flow lake
flow through lake
Nowicka B., Lenartowicz M., 2004, Nowicka,2006
Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute
Barbara Nowicka, Marta Bałandin
19 Dresden, 25.09.2011 Impact of climate change on water balance of a large flow-through lake (case study - Lake Charzykowskie)
Amplitude water level < 1m
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
1 9
61
1 9
63
1 9
65
1 9
67
1 9
69
1 9
71
1 9
73
1 9
75
1 9
77
1 9
79
1 9
81
1 9
83
1 9
85
1 9
87
1 9
89
1 9
91
1 9
93
1 9
95
1 9
97
1 9
99
2 0
01
2 0
03
2 0
05
2 0
07
2 0
09
Cu
mu
lati
ve
cu
rve (
P-
Ps
r)
mm
∑(Py – P1960 ÷2009 ) ΔT=1 year
Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute
Barbara Nowicka, Marta Bałandin
20 Dresden, 25.09.2011 Impact of climate change on water balance of a large flow-through lake (case study - Lake Charzykowskie)
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII
mln
m 3
Months
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII
mln
m3
Months
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII
mln
m3
Months
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII
mln
m 3
Months
Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute
Barbara Nowicka, Marta Bałandin
21 Dresden, 25.09.2011 Impact of climate change on water balance of a large flow-through lake (case study - Lake Charzykowskie)
Prognoza after : Züger J., Knoflacher M., 2011
Mean total precipitation sum:
1961-1970 = 780 mm
2061-2071 = 826 mm
+5%5
Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute
Barbara Nowicka, Marta Bałandin
22 Dresden, 25.09.2011 Impact of climate change on water balance of a large flow-through lake (case study - Lake Charzykowskie)
Charzykowskie Lake water level:
- 5,3m
volume:
– 60 mln m3
Water exchange in the lake
210 ÷ 296 mln m3/ year
1,8x during the year
Vj – 139 mln m3
Change in water level: 1 m
=
Retention change: 13 mln m3
Precipitation:
488 ÷ 1004 mm
Based on period: 1974 ÷2010
Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute
Barbara Nowicka, Marta Bałandin
23
Dresden, 25.09.2011 Impact of climate change on water balance of a large flow-through lake (case study - Lake Charzykowskie)
Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute
Barbara Nowicka, Marta Bałandin
24 Dresden, 25.09.2011 Impact of climate change on water balance of a large flow-through lake (case study - Lake Charzykowskie)
References:
Galon R., 1953, Morfologia doliny i sandru Brdy. Studia Soc. Scient.Tor. C1,61 pp 121-177
Nowaczyk B., 1994, Wiek jezior i problemy zaniku brył pogrzebanego lodu w okolicy harzykowy. Acta Universitatis
im Adama Mickiewicza, Seria Geografia 27 pp 91-110
Nowicka B., Lenartowicz M., 2004, Variability in the process of the lake feeding by the groundwater (case study of
small basin in South Pomeranian Lake District), Progress in Surface and Subsurface Water Studies at the Plot and
Small Basin Scale[w] edit F. Maraga and M. Arattano, IHP-VI Technical Documents in Hydrology, No.77, pp 15-20
Nowicka B., 2006, Hydrogeology and hydrology of Lake Ostrowite [in] red. G. Kowalewski, K. Milecka, Lasek and
mires of BoryTucholskie Park Field guidebook, PNBT Charzykowy, pp 63-72
Züger J., Knoflacher M., 2011, Regional climate change scenario. Scenario selection and preliminary results,
Project EULAKES Ref. Nr. 2CE243P3, Raport 4.3.2. Austrian Institute of Technology (AIT)
Institute of Meteorology and Water Management - National Research Institute
Barbara Nowicka, Marta Bałandin
25 Dresden, 25.09.2011 Impact of climate change on water balance of a large flow-through lake (case study - Lake Charzykowskie)
Contact e-mail:
barbara.nowicka@ imgw.pl, [email protected]