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EVMS Training Snippet Library: Predictive
Analysis
Office of Acquisition and Project Management (APM) MA-60
U. S. Department of Energy
July 2014
Achieving Management and Operational Excellence
Purpose of Predictive Analysis
• Provide DOE Project Manager with consistent and timely insight to project status
• Verification of the project’s cost and schedule status • Authentication of the project’s EAC and ECD
Page 2
Risks Associated with the CPI
• Risks– Misapplied criteria for awarding fee – Over-emphasized by higher levels management– Manipulated EVMS data
• Solution– Examine other metrics as well; even (especially) when CPI is
nearly perfect at 1.0
Page 3
Percent Complete/Spent
BCWPCUMBAC X 100 = Percent Complete
ACWPCUMEAC X 100 = Percent Spent
Page 4
Staffing Profile
• Timing is everything• Resources without commitments invite trouble• Having the right skills available at the right time is key
Page 5
Staffing Profile Curve
Bow Wave #1 Bow
Wave #2
12 Months: 3 Past, 9 Future
Page 6
Earned Schedule
• SPI(t) = Earned Schedule / Actual Duration• Forecasted Duration = Baseline Duration/SPI(t)• SPI(t) v. SPI
– Pros:• Remains predictive throughout life of project• Time versus dollars
– Cons:• Skewed when non-critical future tasks are completed early or
when LOE effort is included in the calculation
Page 7
Earned Schedule
Start TimeNow
BaselineFinish
PlannedValue Earned
Value
ActualDuration
(AD)Earned
Schedule
Forecasted DurationSPI(t) = 7/11 = .6420 Mos/.64 = 31.3
20 Months11 Months7 Months
31.3 Months
Page 8
PARSII Earned Schedule Report
0.001.002.003.004.00
06/30/2013 07/31/2013 08/31/2013 09/30/2013 10/31/2013 11/30/2013
Incremental SPI(t) Incremental SPI
0.930.940.950.960.970.98
06/30/2013 07/31/2013 08/31/2013 09/30/2013 10/31/2013 11/30/2013
Cumulative SPI(t) Cumulative SPI
Page 9
Baseline Execution Index (BEI)
BEI =Completed TasksBaseline Count
Page 10
PARSII Schedule Baseline Execution Index Report, Summary Tab
Baseline CurrentShould Have
Completed
Baselined Completed Planned Actual
Actual less Accelerated
14287 17023 13483 14093 12769 12774 0.91 0.91 98.64% 89.37% 89.41%* Target BEI is >= 0.95. Any value below 0.95 is considered failure on the assessment scale.
Total # of Completed Activities
Total Count % of Baseline CompletedBEI
# of "Should Have
Completed"
# of "Should Have
Completed" Actually
Completed
# of All Baselined Activties
Completed
120001250013000135001400014500
Total # ofCompletedActivities
# of "Should HaveCompleted"
# of "Should HaveCompleted"
ActuallyCompleted
# of All BaselinedActivties
Completed
Page 11
PARSII Schedule Baseline Execution Index Report, Trend Tab
Dec 2012
Jan 2013
Feb 2013
Mar 2013
Apr 2013
May 2013
Jun 2013
Jul 2013
Aug 2013
Sep 2013
Oct 2013
Nov 2013
BEI (All Baselined) 0.98 0.98 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.94 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.91
BEI (BEF < Status) 0.97 0.96 0.96 0.96 0.95 0.93 0.91 0.90 0.90 0.91 0.91 0.91
* Target BEI is >= 0.95. Any value below 0.95 is considered failure on the assessment scale.
0.860.880.900.920.940.960.981.00
Dec2012
Jan2013
Feb2013
Mar2013
Apr2013
May2013
Jun2013
Jul2013
Aug2013
Sep2013
Oct2013
Nov2013
BEI Trend
Page 12
Comparison of SPI to BEI
• Advantage of SPI over BEI – SPI is more sensitive than BEI
• Advantages of BEI over SPI– BEI is a more objective metric than SPI – SPI may be skewed due to inclusion of LOE
• Similar– Derived from historical data– Most valuable when used prior to 70-80% completion–Value:
> 1.0 Favorable= 1.0 On Track< 1.0 Unfavorable
Page 13
Change in Float
• Total Project Float is a leading indicator of schedule performance
• Looking at the change in float between periods indicates potential schedule concerns
• Float is not subject to trends in SPI and CPI but rather trends in schedule performance of predecessors and requirements of successors in the schedule
Page 14
Comparison of TCPI to CPI
• To Complete Performance Index –Calculates future efficiencies based on past performance to
achieve EAC or the BAC
–TCPIEAC or TCPIBAC–A useful metric at all WBS levels
• IEACs–A prediction of the final EAC model
–Normally calculated at the total project level
–Best viewed as a range
• TCPI and IEACs are good indicators of EAC reasonableness
Page 15
Comparing Past to Future Page 16
CPI vs. TCPI (PMB Level)
06/23/13 07/21/13 08/25/13 09/30/13 10/27/13 11/24/13TCPi to EAC 0.99 1.03 1.09 1.68 1.68 1.85TCPI to BAC -15.08 -7.06 -4.58 -3.01 -2.56 -2.06CPi Cum 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95CPi Current 0.42 0.62 0.74 0.41 0.54 0.99
-16.00
-14.00
-12.00
-10.00
-8.00
-6.00
-4.00
-2.00
0.00
2.00
4.00
Page 17
Independent EACs
• Statistical EACs provide insight into EAC trends and the validity of the EAC.
• There are many defined in literature, the most common are:–Formula 1: BAC/CPIcum
–Formula 2: ACWPcum + (BAC-BCWPcum)/(SPI*CPI)
–Formula 3: ACWPcum + (BAC-BCWPcum)/CPI3
– Recall: (BAC – BCWP) = BCWR or Budgeted Cost of Work Remaining
Page 18
Management Reserve Trends
• Management Reserve Remaining(Original MR - Current MR) / Original MR = % MR Used
Page 19
Management Reserve Trends (cont.)
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cum CV
Is MR applied to effectively mask the cum CV?
MR Balance v. CV, VAC, & EAC Trends Report; select MR v. CV tab
ManagementReserve
Page 20
Schedule Margin
• Schedule Margin Remaining (Planned Schedule Margin - Actual Schedule Margin) / Planned Schedule Margin = % Schedule Margin Used
40
30
20
10
0
Page 21
Schedule Health Metrics
• Schedule Health Metrics covered in Snippets 3.2 and 5.3
– Missing Logic
– Leads
– Lag
– Relationship Types
– Hard Constraints
– Float: High Float and Negative Float
– High Duration
– Invalid Dates: Forecast and Actual
– Missing Resources
Page 22
Predictive Analysis Summary
• Always check other indices and trends – don’t rely solely on SPI and CPI
• Indices to consider:– Percent Complete and Percent Spent– Staffing Profiles– Earned Schedule– Baseline Execution Index– Changes in schedule float– To Complete Performance Index– Independent Estimates at Completion– Management Reserve – Schedule Margin Reserves
Page 23
DOE OAPM EVM Home Page
http://energy.gov/management/office-management/operational-management/project-management/earned-value-management
Page 24
EVMS Training Snippet Library: Predictive Analysis�Slide Number 2Slide Number 3Slide Number 4Slide Number 5Slide Number 6Slide Number 7Slide Number 8Slide Number 9Slide Number 10Slide Number 11Slide Number 12Slide Number 13Slide Number 14Slide Number 15Slide Number 16Slide Number 17Slide Number 18Slide Number 19Slide Number 20Slide Number 21Slide Number 22Slide Number 23Slide Number 24