Exit Polling in Mississippi Republican Senate Primary

Norman Analytics and ResearchJune 30, 2014

Key Findings McDaniel did well in suburban Memphis and but fell behind on the Gulf

Coast. Voters under 35, those without a college degree and those making

$25,000-$99,999 were more likely to vote for McDaniel. In the regions tested, 20% of June 24th voters did not participate in the

June 3rd primary. McDaniel won 56% of these voters – on par with his overall vote total in the regions surveyed.

In total, roughly one-quarter of voters recall hearing a radio ad with a message about the Congressional Exemption for Obamacare. Voters said the radio ad had as much impact as other ads seen and heard during the campaign. Despite what they say about impact, voters who heard the message about the

Congressional Exemption for Obamacare (through any channel) were significantly more likely to vote for McDaniel.

Among those who heard the NON PAC Ad and said it had an impact, 75% voted for McDaniel.

The idea that Congress exempted itself from the unpopular Obamacare law is believable to voters and does make an impact on the willingness to vote for an incumbent.

Election Results

Total Suburban Memphis

Gulf Coast0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

57% 68%46%

43% 32%54%

Chris McDaniel Thad Cochran

Results are weighted to match the final tally in each county. McDaniel did well in suburban Memphis and but fell behind on the Gulf Coast.

Election Results

Total White Black 18-34 35-54 55+0%

10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

57% 58%31%

65% 59% 55%

43% 42%69%

35% 41% 45%

Chris McDaniel Thad Cochran

Younger voters strongly favored McDaniel.

Election Results

Total Men Women HS or Less

Some College

College Degree

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

57% 59% 55% 65% 66%48%

43% 41% 45% 35% 34%52%

Chris McDaniel Thad Cochran

Voters with less than a college degree were more likely to favor McDaniel.

Election Results

Total Support TP

Oppose TP

Under $25K

$25-$50K

$50-$100K

$100K+0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

57%83%

15%50% 65% 62% 47%

43%17%

85%50% 35% 38% 53%

Chris McDaniel Thad Cochran

McDaniel had strong support from his Tea Party base as well as middle and upper-middle class voters. The wealthiest voters were more likely to favor Cochran.

Voting in June 3 Election

34%

44%

2%

20%

Thad Cochran Chris McDaniel Other Did Not Vote

One-in-five voters in Suburban Memphis and the Gulf Coast did not participate in the original primary.

Total June 3 - Cochran June 3 - McDaniel June 3 - Other June 3 - Did not vote

0%10%20%30%40%

50%60%70%80%90%

100%

57%

8%

96%73%

56%

43%

92%

4%27%

44%

McDaniel Cochran

Election ResultsThere was limited voter switchover between primaries. Voters who did not participate in the June 3rd primary voted similarly to the total number of voters in the regions.

Election Results – Changes from June 3 to June 24

42%

3%11%

2%

31%

2% 9%

1%

McDaniel to McDaniel Cochran to McDaniel Did not vote to McDaniel Other to McDanielCochran to Cochran McDaniel to Cochran Did not vote to Cochran Other to Cochran

Most voters cast the same ballot they did on June 3.

Profile of June 3 Non-Voters

Among those who Did Not Vote 6/3, Voted McDaniel 6/24

Among those who Did Not Vote 6/3, Voted Cochran 6/24

Male 48% 44%Female 52% 56%18-34 15% 11%35-54 45% 50%55+ 40% 40%White 91% 86%Black 6% 11%HS of Less 25% 7%Some College 40% 26%College Grad 35% 66%Under $25K 13% 7%$25-$50K 26% 22%$50-$100K 36% 34%$100K+ 25% 36%Support Tea Party 62% 15%Oppose Tea Party 11% 51%Heard NON PAC Ad 16% 20%

McDaniel won new voters who support the Tea Party and those without college degrees while Cochran courted higher income, higher educated voters as well as those who oppose the Tea Party.

Profile of June 3 Non-Voters

June 3 Non-VotersSupport Tea Party 41% Cochran 16%/McDaniel 84%Neutral to Tea Party 31% Cochran 50%/McDaniel 50%Oppose Tea Party 28% Cochran 80%/McDaniel 20%

June 3 Non-VotersSupport Tea Party 41% 25% heard NON PAC AdNeutral to Tea Party 31% 17% heard NON PAC AdOppose Tea Party 28% 10% heard NON PAC Ad

In the regions surveyed, June 3rd non-voters were more likely to be supportive of the Tea Party and McDaniel won this group easily. New voters who supported the Tea Party were more likely to have heard the NON PAC Ad showing the ad was well targeted to McDaniel’s base.

Radio Advertising

Total Suburban Memphis

Gulf Coast

Heard Now or Never PAC Radio Advertising

27% 22% 32%

Heard NON PAC Radio

Ad

Saw TV Ad Received Mail

A Great Deal of Impact 13% 14% 14%Some Impact 22% 23% 24%Just a Little Impact 16% 15% 15%No Impact 48% 47% 45%

In total, roughly one-quarter of voters recall hearing a radio ad with a message about the Congressional Exemption for Obamacare. Voters said the radio ad had as much impact as other advertising mediums.

Profile of Voters – Radio AdProfile of Voters Who Heard NON PAC Radio Ad

Profile of Voters Who Heard NON

PAC Radio Ad and Said

Advertising Had Impact

Male 55% 49%Female 45% 51%18-34 11% 15%35-54 38% 34%55+ 52% 51%White 96% 96%Black 2% 3%HS of Less 9% 11%Some College 28% 32%College Grad 63% 57%Under $25K 5% 6%$25-$50K 11% 12%$50-$100K 43% 39%$100K+ 41% 44%

Support Tea Party

59% 71%

Oppose Tea Party

17% 11%

Significantly higher than the total sample Significantly lower than the total sample

Profile of Voters Who

Heard NON PAC Radio Ad

Profile of Voters Who

Heard NON PAC Radio Ad and

Said Advertising Had Impact

Voted Cochran 37% 25%

Voted McDaniel

63% 75%

Voted Cochran 6/3

33% 24%

Voted McDaniel 6/3

52% 64%

Voted Other 6/3

2% 1%

Did Not Vote 6/3

13% 11%

While 57% of voters in the tested regions voted for McDaniel, 63% of those who heard the NON PAC Ad voted for him and 75% of those who heard the ad and said it had impact supported McDaniel.

Of those who heard the NON PAC Ad, 59% support the Tea Party compared to 47% among all voters. This indicates the ad was well targeted to turn out a segment of voters likely to support McDaniel.

Obamacare Exemption Impact

Significantly higher than the total sample Significantly lower than the total sample

Total Heard Obamacare Exemption

Message (any medium)

Advertising had impact 36% 37%Likely Congress is hiding Obamacare Exemption

74% 77%

Less likely to vote for incumbent if Obamacare Exemption is true

69% 75%

Believe Congress and staff should pay for own insurance

51% 49%

Voted McDaniel 57% 63%

Voters who heard the message about Cochran and the Congressional Exemption for Obamacare were significantly more likely to vote for McDaniel.

Obamacare Exemption

Total Believe Congressional

Exemption

Do Not Believe Congressional

ExemptionLess likely to vote for Incumbent 72% 77% 56%Makes no difference 16% 11% 30%More likely to vote for incumbent 4% 4% 4%Note sure 8% 8% 11%

Total Voted McDaniel

Voted Cochran

Believe Congressional Exemption 74% 82% 62%Do Not Believe Congressional Exemption

26% 18% 38%

The idea that Congress exempted itself from the unpopular Obamacare law is believable to voters and does make an impact on the willingness to vote for an incumbent.

Obamacare Exemption

Total Heard Radio Ad Did Not Hear Radio Ad

Voted Cochran Voted McDaniel0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

51% 46% 53% 44%56%

49% 54% 47% 56%44%

Congress and their staff get enough benefits - they can pay for their own health insuranceCongress and their staff should be able to get health insurance through their employer like other workers

Voters are split on whether or not Congress and their staff should get employer based healthcare. However, other survey data show this changes if Congress appears to have a separate set of rules.

Appendix

Methodology In-person interviewers were positioned at 18 polling places in Mississippi on

June 24, 2014 for the Republican Senate Nomination Runoff Election. In total 1,127 interviews were conducted.

9 in Suburban Memphis (576 interviews) 9 on the Southern Gulf Coast (551 interviews)

Polling places were selected through a random stratified sample based on turnout in the June 3rd Republican Primary. Polling places where fewer than 100 people voted on June 3rd were excluded for operational/feasibility issues.

Interviewers approached every third person that left the precinct and invited them to participate in a survey. This was done to ensure a random sample.

If voters agreed to participate, they were handed a double sided survey which was self-administered and returned to a box. The interviewer did not review the completed surveys to ensure anonymity.

Final survey data were weighted to match the actual election outcome in each county. Figures in this report reflect weighted data. When data from the state becomes available, this can be updated to match precinct level actual returns.

Locations – Suburban MemphisPrecinct/County June 3 Ballots

CastJune 24

Ballot Cast*Exit

Interviews Collected**

Hernando East/DeSoto 1,232 84Olive Branch South/DeSoto 589 114***

Southaven North/DeSoto 509 85Senatobia 1/Tate 500 75Nesbit West/DeSoto 291 80***Byhalia/Marshall 251 60***Looxahoma/Tate 160 23Potts Camp/Marshall 143 42Floyd/Benton 112 13

*To be updated when Secretary of State certifies final results**Interviewers approached every 3rd person leaving the polling place as a method of randomization***Locations where polling place officials and watchers prevented interviews for part of the day

Locations – Southern Gulf CoastPrecinct/County June 3 Ballots

CastJune 24

Ballot Cast*Exit

Interviews Collected**

OS Civic/Jackson 2,219 203Diamondhead East/Hancock 1,541 18***

Biloxi 11/Harrison 1,082 174Fontainebleau/Jackson 891 51Eastlawn/Jackson 494 32Waveland West/Hancock 363 12White Plains/Harrison 250 57Outside Long Beach/Harrison 171 2***

City Hall/Hancock 102 2***

*To be updated when Secretary of State certifies final results**Interviewers approached every 3rd person leaving the polling place as a method of randomization***Locations where polling place officials and watchers prevented interviews for most of the day

Demographics of VotersTotal June 3 Voters

Male 49% 50%Female 51% 50%18-34 10% 9%35-54 36% 33%55+ 54% 58%White 93% 94%Black 5% 4%HS of Less 18% 18%Some College 33% 33%College Grad 49% 49%Under $25K 10% 10%$25-$50K 18% 16%$50-$100K 42% 43%$100K+ 30% 31%Support Tea Party 47% 48%Oppose Tea Party 24% 23%