Expertise and Democracy - Melbourne School of Government€¦ · Innovation trajectories choice discourse risk s e ss risk Sustainability innovation democracy “letting go” diversity,

www.steps-centre.org/

www.sussex.ac.uk/spru/

www.multicriteria-mapping.org

www.sussex.ac.uk/spru/people/peoplelists/person/7513

Andy Stirling

SPRU & STEPS Centre

University of Sussex

a keynote talk for conference of Melbourne School of Government,

‘A Crisis of Expertise? Legitimacy and the challenge of policymaking’

University of Melbourne

Friday 16th February 2018

Expertise and Democracy

from adversarial crisis

to mutualistic renewal

http://www.steps-centre.org/

http://www.sussex.ac.uk/spru/

http://www.multicriteria-mapping.org/

http://www.sussex.ac.uk/spru/people/peoplelists/person/7513

“Crisis of Expertise”?

“This very expensive GLOBAL WARMING bullshit

has got to stop”

“Crisis of Expertise”: undermining?

“we'll restore science to its

rightful place”…

“Our hope … relies on

scientific and technological

progress”

“One can not impede

scientific progress.””

“the Government’s

strategy is …

pro-innovation”

“this government's

approach is to

make decisions …

on the basis of

sound science”

democracy as “the

enemy of nature”

climate change means:

“… put democracy

on hold for a while”

Lisbon Strategy for:

“pro-innovation action”

“Crisis of Expertise”: or entrenching?

Energy regulation: most mature, sophisticated comparative analysis…

Expertise: as much about justification as veracity?

0.001 0.1 10 1000

externality’: cUS/kWh (after Sundqvist et al, 2005)low RISK high

coal

oil

gas

nuclear

hydro

wind

solar

biomass

Expertise: as much about justification as veracity?


0.001 0.1 10 1000

coal

oil

gas

nuclear

hydro

21

wind

solar

biomass

n =

‘externality’: cUS/kWh (after Sundqvist et al, 2005)

minimum maximum25% 75%

low RISK high

Expertise is as much about justification as veracity


coal

oil

gas

nuclear

hydro

36

20

wind 18

solar 11

biomass 22

31

21

16

n =

‘sound science’, ‘evidence based’ analyses can justify many policies

0.001 0.1 10 1000

‘externality’: cUS/kWh (after Sundqvist et al, 2005)low RISK high


coal

oil

gas

nuclear

hydro

36

20

wind 18

solar 11

biomass 22

31

21

16

n =

0.001 0.1 10 1000

‘externality’: cUS/kWh (after Sundqvist et al, 2005)low RISK high

‘sound science’, ‘evidence based’ analyses can justify many policies

… but are typically invoked misleadingly to prescribe a single ‘decision’


equally true of interpretive expertise … or of claims to ‘reflexivity’

All Expertise is Socially Framed and Constituted

too often, all sides of

debate see ‘truth’ (both

epistemic & ontological)

as if always necessarily

singular, rather than

plural & conditional

Are Expertise / Democracy Dynamics 1-D, Zero-Sum?


Just because many

differing representations

are equally ‘true’, does

not mean that ‘anything

goes’ – or some views

aren’t just plain ‘wrong’


Expert performance of definitive singularity is easier with ontological distance

Double hermeneutic: justification helps drive epistemic hierarchies in expertise

Aggregation and reduction parameterise imaginations

eg:

- singular

‘bottom line’

- ‘simple

solutions’

- ‘sound

science’

- evidence

based policy

Subverting of appreciations for complexity, uncertainty,

context-sensitivity, multiple framings and diverse options

Definitive Ideas of Expertise Reinforce Incumbency

different possible

institutional

trajectories

eg:

- techno-fixes

- supply control

- product mixes

- IP intensity

- securitisation

- big pharma

- agri-biotech

- nuclear power

Restricts deep questions of direction merely to rate or risk

Singular Expertise Compounds Economic Lock-ins

whatever side is taken; even just idea of “speaking for science”

asserts that “there is no alternative” in directions for progress

- models

- missions

- handbooks

- manuals

- “road maps”

Even ‘the sustainability transition’ often singular & top-down

Even ‘Critical’ Expertise can also Entrench Power

Contrast: open, plural emergent actualities of transformation

Emphasising: “citizen participation” & “greater democracy”

In a sense, can be seen as:

a “second enlightenment”

Articulates agency not just

over ‘rate’, also ‘direction’ of

material or other progress

expert / value relations

escape 1-D zero sum to be

fractal, plural & conditional

environmental

integrity

social

equality

human

wellbeing

SUSTAINABLILITY

Sustainability: Explicit Normativity in Expertise

social equality

human wellbeing

ecological integrity

Even the most specific environmental issues, all initially vigorously resisted

pesticides…pesticides… asbestos…pesticides… asbestos… radiation…pesticides… asbestos… radiation… lead…pesticides… asbestos… radiation… lead… carcinogens…pesticides… asbestos… radiation… lead… carcinogens… CFCs…pesticides… asbestos… radiation… lead… carcinogens… CFCs… EDCs…

Sustainability is Rooted in Counter-Expertise

And innovations now mainstream were initially excluded and suppressed

organic farming…organic farming… wind turbines…organic farming… wind turbines… super-efficiency…organic farming… wind turbines… super-efficiency… closed cycle production…

Constituting problems as well as solutions of Sustainabilty

depend on assertively mobilising both resistance and alternatives

Sustainability is Rooted in Counter-Expertise

Even in SDGs: Expertise is ‘Plural and Conditional’

pluralities of expertise enabled as much within as between agendas

re-asserts conditionalitiess in epistemologies, ontologies & normativities

embodiment of non-zero sum relations between expertise & democracy

maintaining

“optimal

Holocene

conditions”

Sustainability Puts Expertise in Rigorous Context

Humility: knowledge and expertise are plural and conditional

Highlights collective agency, political struggle and choice as

constituting salience of expertise; basis for (not on) evidence

“control variables

of the Earth”

“non-negotiable”

“absolutely no

uncertainty” …

“no compromise”

humanity as a

“control force”

Anthropocene “planetary management” …

But Even Sustainability Expertise is Instrumentalised

expertise as

means to

“domination”

maintaining

“optimal

Holocene

conditions”

A ‘control discourse’ leading to planetary geoengineering?

But Even Sustainability Expertise is Instrumentalised

INPUTS

(aspects taken into

account within

practice of research

or appraisal)

problems,

options,

pros / cons,

issues,

uncertainties,

perspectives

INPUTS

(things that are

taken into account)

Pro

blems, options, pros

/ cons, issues,

uncertainties,

perspectives

narrow

broad

closing down opening up

quantitative /

analytic

interpretive /

deliberative

OUTPUTS

(aspects that are conveyed

outwards into wider discourse)

’Plural conditional’ conclusions…

… if X then A … if Y then B …

A multiplicity of institutional practices for ‘opening up ’can help resist

closure … help collective action reconcile crisis in democratic expertise

Practices to Defend Transdisciplinarity in Expertise

narrow

broad


decision

analysis

INP

UT

S

OUTPUTS

sustainability

safety

impacts

quantitative /

analytic

interpretive /

deliberative




narrow

broad


citizen’s juries

INP

UT

S

OUTPUTS


quantitative /

analytic

interpretive /

deliberative



narrow

broad


citizen’s juries

participatory

appraisal

q-

method

scientometric

mapping

open

space

multicriteria

mapping

extended

foresightcitizen’s juries

decision

analysis

stakeholder

negotiation

participatory

sensitivity analysis

cost-benefit

analysis risk

assessment

interactive

modelling

structured

interviews

participant

observation

multi-site

ethnographic-

methods

citizen’s juries

consensus

conference

open

hearings

concurrent

evidence

critical

narratives

intervention

futures

PIPA

plural

photovoice

system

histories

innovation

histories

INP

UT

S

OUTPUTS


quantitative /

analytic

interpretive /

deliberative



spot-the-

narrative

narrow

broad


citizen’s juries

decision

analysis

participatory

rural appraisal

q-method

sensitivity

analysis

deliberative

mappingscientometric

mapping

open

space

cost-benefit

analysis

risk

assessmen

t

interactive

modelling

structured

interviews

narrative-based

participant

observation

multi-site

ethnographic-

methods

citizen’s juries

consensus

conference

open

hearings

dissenting

opinions

multi-criteria

mapping

extended

foresight

optimising

models

cost-benefit

analysis

risk

assessment

INP

UT

S

OUTPUTS

The Dance between Expertise and Power

From ‘speaking truth to power’ to ‘speaking about power’:

- ‘resisting how power tries to shape truth’

sustainability

eg: multicriteria mapping

“CARING ATTENTION”

engineered

consensus

“CONTROLLING ANALYSIS”

narrow

broad


participatory

appraisal

q-

method

open

space

multicriteria

mapping

participatory

sensitivity

analysis

intervention

futures PIPA

plural

photovoice

system

histories

innovation

histories

INP

UT

S

OUTPUTS

The Dance between Expertise and Power

From ‘speaking truth to power’ to ‘speaking about power’:

- ‘resisting how power tries to shape truth’

MULTIDISCIPLINARITY

- enquiry structured hierarchically

- impressive scope, reassuring applicability

- authority through integration

eg:

integrated assessment

global panels

narrow

broad


expert /

analytic

participatory /

deliberative

INP

UT

S

OUTPUTS

“Talk About Power” in Closures of Expertise

A responsibility for neutrality means independent innovation research and

policy appraisal should deliberately counter pressures for closure

INTERDISCIPLINARITY

- enquiry structured by collaboration

- attention targeted on focal problem

- authority thro’ fidelity in addressing complexity

eg:

collaborative networks

multiple partnerships

narrow

broad


expert /

analytic

participatory /

deliberative

INP

UT

S

OUTPUTS




TRANSDISCIPLINARITY

- enquiry reflects wider extant framings

- flexible to divergent contexts

- authority thro’ salience and legitimacy

eg:

co-designed with

stakeholders

narrow

broad


expert /

analytic

participatory /

deliberative

INP

UT

S

OUTPUTS




Robust Expertise Means Knowledge Democracy

Science itself began with some aspects of an anti-authoritarian social movement

eg:

1660s

‘Royal Society of London for

Improving Natural Knowledge’

motto: “nullius in verba”

(~ ‘not on authority’)

1990s

‘the Royal Society’

mission: “promoting

excellence in science”

Secular dynamics of succession in hegemonic means to justification?

specific tech technological ‘lock-in’

risk

regulation ‘closed down’

instrumentalised

politics

risk

Op

tio

ns

risk

narrowed in

technical

assessment

knowledge

economy

$IIIIII

€

‘sound science’ ‘pro-innovation’ , ‘evidence based’ reductions are unscientific!


possible paths

multiple feasible

Innovation trajectories

choice

discourse

risk

op

tio

ns

pe

rspe

ctive

ss

riskSustainability

innovation

democracy

“letting go”

diversity, disrupition, experiment

risk

‘second enlightenment’: agency not just on rate, but direction of progress

“opening up”

democratic

politics

“broadening out”

social

appraisal


Documents

Expertise and Democracy - Melbourne School of Government€¦ · Innovation trajectories choice discourse risk s e ss risk Sustainability innovation democracy “letting go” diversity,