1

7580859095

100105110115120

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul

Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data P = Preliminary data

Dec 2017 = 19.9 Bn USDEx. Gold = 19.6 Bn USD

Nov 2017 = 21.2 Bn USDEx. Gold = 21.1 Bn USD

Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total export value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents.

Thai Export to Major Destinations

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul

%YoYShare 2017P 2016P 2017P

2017P

H1 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec%MoM

sa

Agriculture 7.6 -6.2 20.0 19.8 28.4 13.6 23.7 6.9 -6.3

Fishery 0.9 15.1 4.8 6.5 11.5 -4.1 -3.2 -5.8 0.2

Manufacturing 87.5 -1.2 10.3 9.1 9.6 13.1 15.0 9.8 -2.0

Agro-manufacturing Products 12.3 1.0 12.3 9.7 13.9 15.7 17.1 11.3 2.6

Electronics and OpticalAppliances

16.5 -2.3 13.1 14.2 10.6 13.8 18.7 12.7 -4.4

Electrical Appliances 5.6 3.5 6.2 6.8 3.1 8.5 11.4 7.1 0.3

Automotive 15.0 3.2 6.3 2.5 2.6 18.1 14.6 14.6 -3.1

Machinery & Equipment 8.7 -0.3 7.3 7.8 13.2 0.9 -5.2 6.8 0.6

Petroleum Related 11.5 -12.5 19.0 19.6 19.3 17.7 17.4 11.5 1.4

Total (BOP basis) 100.0 0.1 9.7 7.3 12.5 11.6 12.3 9.3 0.4

Ex. Gold - -1.6 10.8 9.5 11.2 12.8 14.4 10.0 -0.6

Ex. Gold+Petroleum related - 0.0 9.8 8.3 10.2 12.2 14.0 9.8 -0.9

Asian Export Performance

Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)Ex.gold

Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)

EU

Japan*

China

ASEAN5

ME

TH ex.Gold

TW

ID ex.Oil & Gas

SGMY

CNKR

* ex. Aircraft and other manufacturing

Export Value

US

2

Sources: Ministry of Tourism and Sports, Calculated by Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data

Index sa (Jan 2014 = 100) Tourists Classified by Nationality

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul

TotalChina (share 27%)Malaysia (share 11%)Asia ex. CN MY (share 29%)Europe ex. Russia (share 16%)Russia (share 3%)

2016 20172017

H1 Q3 Q4 Nov DecP

No. of tourists (’000) 32,530 35,381 17,324 8,777 9,280 3,021 3,536

%YoY 8.9 8.8 4.9 6.4 19.5 23.2 15.5

%QoQsa, %MoMsa - - - 1.0 1.9 0.3 3.2

Note: ( ) denotes share in total tourist arrivals in 2017

3

Sources: The Nielsen Company, Revenue Department, Department of Tourism, Ministry of Energy, NSO, OAE P = Preliminary E = Estimated

80

90

100

110

120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul

Semi-durable Index sa,3mmaDurable Index sa, 3mmaDurable Index sa

Jan 2014 = 100

Private Consumption Indicators

%YoY 2016 20172017 %MoM sa

H1 Q3 Q4 Nov DecP DecP

Non-durable index 2.2 -0.3 -0.9 0.7 -0.1 0.7 -1.6 0.4

Semi-durable index 1.7 -0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.6 1.0R -0.3 -0.1

Durable index -1.1 8.6 8.3 4.9 12.3 13.4 14.1 0.7

Service index 7.4 5.8 5.6 4.4 7.7E 10.4R 7.3E 0.2E

(less) Net tourist spending 10.1 11.5 7.8 9.3 22.1 25.0 20.5 4.4

PCI 3.7 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.9 4.0R 1.0 -0.4

* Comprises of the VAT on hotel and restaurant sector and the sale of transportation sector

Nielsen’s FMCG Index & Fuel Index

Durable and Semi-durable Indices

Jan 2014 = 100 Jan 2014 = 100

60

80

100

120

140

160

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul

Service Index sa, 3mmaNon-resident spending Index sa, 3mma (RHS)

Jan 2014 = 100Jan 2014 = 100Service Index* & Net Tourist Spending Index

90

100

110

120

130

140

859095

100105110115120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul

Nielsen’s FMCG Index sa, 3mmaFuel Index, saFuel Index sa, 3mma (RHS)

4

25303540455055

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul

Sources: MOC, NSO, OAE, calculated by BOT

Consumer Confidence IndexDiffusion Index, sa(Unchanged = 50)

Agriculture = 41.6 Non-Agriculture = 39.3

Dec 17

ค่าเฉลี่ย 5 ปี Agriculture =36.9

ค่าเฉลี่ย 5 ปี Non-Agriculture =38.0

Real IncomeIndexJan 2014 = 100

70

80

90

100

110

120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul

Farm Income saFarm Income sa, 3mmaAverage Non-Farm Income sa, 3mma

P = Preliminary Data

Farm Income

(%YoY) 2016 20172017

H1 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec

Nominal farm incomeP 1.7 3.9 16.2 -1.3 -7.0 -10.4 -3.9

Agricultural productionP -1.9 6.7 10.9 13.4 -0.9 -5.8 7.5

Agricultural price 3.6 -2.7 4.8 -13.0 -6.1 -4.9 -10.6

5การผลิตภาคอุตสาหกรรมขยายตัวโดยเฉพาะในหมวดที่เกี่ยวข้องกับภาคการส่งออก

อาทิ หมวดหมวดยานยนต์ ผลิตภัณฑ์ยาง และปิโตรเคมี

Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)

65

80

95

110

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul

Industrial Electricity Consumption*Quantity of Imported Raw MaterialsIndex of Work Hours in Manufacturing (3mma)

Sources: NSO, OIE, Customs Department and seasonally adjusted by BOT

Manufacturing Production Index (MPI)

Note: the new MPI series as adjusted by the OIE (coverage and base year at 2011)P = Preliminary data

Note: Calculated and Classified by the BOT

MPI Classified by Export Share

Index sa(Jan 2014 = 100)

Other Indicators of Manufacturing Production

* The latest month was estimated by the BOT

(%YoY)Share2011 2016 2017

2017

H1 Q3 Q4 Nov DecP %MoMsa

Food & Beverages 19.3 2.0 3.2 1.8 6.5 3.0 7.8 2.6 -2.1Automotive 16.9 0.4 3.8 -3.7 14.6 9.2 11.0 17.1 -0.2- Vehicle 10.2 1.9 1.2 -4.5 7.4 6.9 9.5 13.5 -0.8- Engine 6.6 -2.8 9.3 -2.1 32.0 14.2 14.3 24.1 0.9

Rubbers & Plastics 10.6 0.6 6.4 -0.2 11.0 15.8 12.4 15.3 3.8IC & Semiconductors 8.0 6.1 7.2 12.3 5.6 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 1.0Textiles & Apparels 5.9 -7.0 -5.4 -2.9 -6.0 -9.7 -8.9 -11.9 -0.9Chemicals 5.8 -0.2 1.5 -0.6 -0.2 7.3 4.8 9.9 6.2Cement & Construction 5.0 0.3 -1.8 -1.6 -2.9 -1.0 2.6 -0.6 -0.4Electrical Appliances 4.4 14.9 -7.0 -4.8 -15.8 -2.8 3.4 -0.5 -0.5Petroleum 3.3 2.4 5.0 3.7 5.3 6.9 7.1 10.6 -0.6HDD 1.2 -7.6 10.3 10.2 6.8 13.8 15.6 14.2 2.9

Others 19.7 1.3 -3.1 -0.7 -1.5 -9.3 -5.5 -14.9 -5.5

MPI 100.0 1.6 1.6 0.1 4.1 2.1 4.1 2.3 -0.8MPI sa ∆% from lastperiod

100.0 - - - 3.0 -0.7 4.0 -0.8 -0.8

Capacity Utilization (SA)

100.0 - - - 62.4 61.4 62.3 62.0 -

70

85

100

115

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul

Export<30%30%<Export<60%Export>60%

6

Sources: Bank of Thailand, ThaiBMA, SET, Business Sentiment Survey by BOT, NSO, OIE, calculated by BOT P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

80

85

90

95

100

105

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul

Construction Materials IndexPermitted Construction Area (RHS)

Investment in Machinery and Equipment Investment in Construction 1,000 m2

9mmaIndex sa, 3mma(Jan 2014=100)

Index sa , 3mma(Jan 2014 = 100)

60

80

100

120

140

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul

Real Imports of Capital GoodsDomestic Machinery SalesCar Sales for Investment

% YoY 2016 20172017 %MoM

sa

H1 Q3 Q4P Nov DecP DecP

Permitted Construction Area (9mma) -8.7 -6.2 -5.5 -5.8 -8.0 -7.9 -7.9 0.2

Construction Materials Index -2.0 -3.2 -4.5 0.0 -3.6 2.5 -5.3 0.2

Real Imports of Capital Goods -1.8 3.1 1.9 4.4 4.2 2.7 -3.3 0.8

Real Dom. Machinery Sales 4.6 -0.4 -1.3 0.4 0.5E -2.1 4.0E 0.4E

Car Sales for Investment -3.2 10.8 7.9 12.6 14.2 16.8 15.1 -2.0

PII -0.1 0.2 -0.6 1.4 0.5 1.4 0.5 0.2

Capacity Utilization (SA) - - - 62.4 61.4 62.3 62.0 -

Private Investment Indicators

Note: Business credits and debt refer to change in outstanding (par); equity refers to new issuance at par value.

Sources of Corporate Financing Bn baht

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Jan-

17

Feb-

17

Mar

-17

Apr-1

7

May

-17

Jun-

17

Jul-1

7

Aug-

17

Sep-

17

Oct-1

7

Nov-

17

Dec-

17Business Credits (SA) EquityDebt 3MMA

7

Sources: Comptroller General’s Department, Fiscal Policy Office

Billion bahtCentral Government Current Expenditure

(Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other)

Central Government Capital Expenditure(Ex. Subsidies/Grants and Other)Billion baht

Note: P = Preliminary data 1/ Includes cash payments for operating and purchase of non-financial assets,

except loan repayments

Fiscal Position (Cash basis)

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

avg. FY2015-17 FY2017 FY2018

010203040506070

Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug

avg. FY2015-17 FY2017 FY2018

Billion Baht FY2016 FY2017PFY2017P FY2018P

Q3 Q4 Q1 Nov Dec

Revenue 2,412 2,349 697 612 551 154 209

(%YoY) (9.3) (-2.6) (-6.9) (1.4) (0.3) (-24.7) (7.8)

Expenditure1/ 2,736 2,795 641 593 944 230 289

(%YoY) (9.0) (2.2) (-1.3) (7.5) (2.0) (32.8) (-9.4)

Budgetary B/L -324 -446 56 19 -392 -76 -80

Non-Budgetary B/L -58 40 19 49 -38 -38 -21

Cash B/L (CG) -382 -406 76 68 -431 -114 -101

Net Financing 397 489 68 171 88 25 66

Treasury B/L 441 524 285 524 181 216 181

8

Dec 2017 = 18.4 Bn USDEx. Gold = 16.4 Bn USD

Nov 2017 = 17.9 Bn USDEx. Gold = 16.8 Bn USD

Import Value IndexIndex sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)

* Regrouping to include vehicle parts, which appear in “others” in the accompanying table.

40

60

80

100

120

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul

Total imports Consumer goodsRaw materials ex. fuel* FuelCapital goods

80

90

100

110

Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul

Value Quantity Price

Index sa, 3mma (Jan 2015=100)

%YoYShare 2017P 2016P 2017P

2017P

H1 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec%MoM

sa

Consumer 10.2 6.0 7.3 4.3 7.6 12.9 14.7 11.0 3.8

Raw material & Intermediate 53.5 -8.0 16.9 18.5 13.2 17.4 14.6 15.8 7.7

o/w Fuel 13.5 -22.6 31.1 34.1 23.1 33.5 22.2 30.5 19.1

o/w Raw mat & Interm ex. Fuel 40.0 -2.6 12.7 14.2 10.4 12.2 12.3 10.6 4.0

Capital 25.2 -2.6 8.6 10.0 8.6 6.0 10.0 4.9 5.5

Others 11.0 3.0 28.0 21.9 46.8 23.3 17.7 48.2 34.8

Total (BOP basis) 100.0 -5.1 14.4 15.0 13.0 14.6 11.9 15.4 12.5

Ex. Gold - -4.6 11.9 12.6 9.5 13.2 10.5 10.6 7.8

Ex. Gold&Fuel - -1.1 9.0 9.4 7.5 9.8 8.7 7.0 5.8

Note: Data above are recorded by custom basis, except total import value which is recorded by BOP basis. Custom basis considers recording as goods pass through Customs, while BOP basis considers changes in ownership between residents and non-residents.

Source: Compiled from Customs Department’s data P = Preliminary data

Import Value

9

Labor Market Indicators EmploymentThousand persons

sa, 3mmaThousand persons

sa, 3mma

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

14,000

15,000

23,000

24,000

25,000

26,000

27,000

28,000

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul

Non-Agriculture (sa, 3mma) Non-Agriculture (sa)Agriculture (sa, 3mma) (RHS)Agriculture (sa) (RHS)

Source: Labor Force Survey (NSO), calculated by BOT

% 2016 20172017

H1 Q3 Q4 Nov Dec

Unemployment rate (sa)

1.0 1.21.2

(1.1)1.2

(1.2)1.1

(1.3)1.1

(1.2)1.0

(1.2)

Employed persons (%YoY)

-0.9 -0.6 -0.1 -1.6 -0.6 0.2 -0.5

Underemployment rate 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.7

Sources: NSO and Ministry of Commerce calculated by BOT

Core inflation contributionHeadline inflation contribution%YoY %YoY

0

1

2

3

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul

Rent (19.62%)Food & Beverage (28.17%)Non-Food & Beverage ex. Rent (52.21%)

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul

Raw food (15.69%)

Energy (11.75%)

Core (72.56%)Dec

0.78%

Dec0.62%

10

Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data

Balance of Payments

Billion USD 2016 2017P2017P

H1 Q3 Q4 Nov DecE

Trade Balance 36.5 31.9 15.2 10.1 6.5 3.3 1.5

Exports (f.o.b.) 214.3 235.1 112.3 61.6 61.2 21.2 19.9

%YoY 0.1 9.7 7.3 12.5 11.6 12.3 9.3

Imports (f.o.b.) 177.7 203.2 97.1 51.5 54.7 17.9 18.4

%YoY -5.1 14.4 15.0 13.0 14.6 11.9 15.4Net Services, Income & Transfers

11.7 17.4 7.6 3.6 6.2 2.0 2.3

Current Account 48.2 49.3 22.8 13.8 12.7 5.3 3.9

Capital and Financial Account -21.0 -19.2 -12.8 0.7 -7.2 -1.5 -4.2

Overall Balance 12.8 26.0 10.2 12.6 3.2 2.3 -1.2

11

Net Financial Flows

Millions of USD 2016 2017P 2017P

H1 Q3 Q4 Nov DecE

1. Assets -19,744 -35,918 -20,273 -7,424 -8,222 -3,480 -6,372TDI -13,409 -19,119 -9,016 -4,151 -5,952 -1,620 -3,759

- Equity -9,073 -10,503 -2,788 -2,546 -5,168 -791 -3,424Thai Portfolio investment -4,279 -12,648 -6,493 -2,900 -3,255 -2,410 -520

- Equity security investment -1,817 -8,757 -3,656 -3,093 -2,007 -1,166 -487- Debt security investment -2,462 -3,892 -2,837 193 -1,248 -1,244 -34

Loans 1,340 -1,160 -567 -223 -370 100 -728Other Investments -3,396 -2,990 -4,196 -150 1,356 450 -1,364

- Trade credits 797 -5,093 -798 -2,333 -1,962 -966 -4802. Liabilities -1,279 16,851 7,516 8,170 1,166 1,965 2,349FDI 3,063 8,020 3,999 2,248 1,773 393 823

- Equity 2,160 4,870 1,891 2,021 957 279 705Foreign Portfolio investment 1,481 9,416 3,808 5,327 281 911 228

- Equity security investment -786 602 630 242 -270 -303 -264- Debt security investment 2,268 8,813 3,178 5,084 551 1,214 492

Loans 60 4,480 1,446 2,101 932 1,315 1,989Other Investments -5,883 -5,064 -1,738 -1,507 -1,820 -654 -691

- Trade credits -946 -1,834 -71 -411 -1,352 -437 -591Total Financial Flows (1+2) -21,023 -19,067 -12,757 746 -7,056 -1,515 -4,023

Source: Bank of Thailand P = Preliminary data E = Estimated data

12

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Q120

17Q2

2017

Q320

17Q4

Nov-

17De

c-17

Reserves/Short-term Debt

Dec 2017E

3.3

-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%

IDR JPY THB GBP SGD PHP MYR INR EUR TWD CNY KRW

end of Dec 2017 compared to end of Nov 2017

24 Jan 2018 compared to end of Dec 2017

Sources: Bank of Thailand, Reuters and BloombergSources: Bank of Thailand, Reuters and Bloomberg

Exchange Rate Movement

(Positive values denote currency appreciation compared to USD)

% p.a.

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

30-D

ec-1

522

-Jan-

1612

-Feb

-16

7-M

ar-1

628

-Mar

-16

22-A

pr-1

618

-May

-16

9-Ju

n-16

30-Ju

n-16

26-Ju

l-16

17-A

ug-1

67-

Sep-

1628

-Sep

-16

19-O

ct-1

610

-Nov

-16

1-De

c-16

26-D

ec-1

618

-Jan-

178-

Feb-

172-

Mar

-17

23-M

ar-1

718

-Apr

-17

11-M

ay-1

71-

Jun-

1722

-Jun-

1714

-Jul-1

77-

Aug-

1729

-Aug

-17

19-S

ep-1

710

-Oct

-17

3-No

v-17

24-N

ov-1

719

-Dec

-17

Latest data 24 Jan 2018

Exchange Rate Volatility (vis-à-vis USD)

Index (Jan 2014 = 100)

80

90

100

110

120

Jan2014

Jul Jan2015

Jul Jan2016

Jul Jan2017

Jul Jan2018

NEER REER USDTHB

Jan 2018(Average data until 24 Jan)THB Appreciation

Times