F Andy Nicholson Arguseliteconferences.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/J.pdf · 2014. 11. 3. · Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1

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illuminating the markets

DeWitt

Energy and commodity price benchmarking and market insights

Global Benzene and Toluene

Indian Petrochem 2014

Andy NicholsonV-P Aromatics EMEIArgus DeWitt Mumbai 30th Oct 2014


25 Years Toluene & Gasoline

Copyright © 2012 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved.

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Differential Toluene - Spot R'Dam Unleaded Gas (95R) CIF NWE


25 Years Benzene & Naphtha


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Differential

Naphtha cif NWE

Benzene Spot cif ARA


Regional Spot Toluene Prices Weekly Averages


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FOB Korea USGC NG FOB ARA


Regional Spot Benzene Prices weekly Averages


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CIF ARA FOB Korea FOB USGC


Global Aromatics Supply


Gasoline Pool (Reformate)

87% Mixed Xylenes

77% Toluene PX (MSTDP, MPX)

7% MX (Disp)

94%

41% Benzene

16% BZ (Disp, MSTDP, HDA)57%


US Refining Capacity is growing and will increase further in 2015


• Valero and others are adding distillation capacity to process more shale crudes

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Op

RateCapa

city

2013-2014 EIA Weekly U. S. Operable Crude Oil Distillation Capacity (‘000 blsper Day) and Operating Rate

Distillation Capacity Op Rate


US domestic gasoline demand to continue to fall


• Slow Economic Growth; Does not include exports• Renewable Fuel Standard-Target is 36 B gallons of ETOH by 2023(not achievable)• CAFÉ Standard with targets of 35.5 MPG by 2016 and 54.5 MPG by 2025Source: EIA and DeWitt forecast


The US has sought to manage naphtha length by increasing exports of gasoline



• Yields impacted by:◦ Quality of naphtha◦ Severity◦ Operating rate

• Three contributions to gross margin◦ Octane, or blend, value◦ Hydrogen and LPG, credit tied to natural gas, or fuel oil,

price◦ Aromatics, chemical value

Reformer Operations



2012 – 2014 Monthly US Toluene Net Trade (t)


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N Am S Am Asia WE MEA EE Total Net Trade


WE Toluene Quarterly Net Trade by Region


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Eurostat

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South America

North America

North Africa

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East Med

Africa

Central Europe

East Europe

South Asia

East Asia


India Toluene Imports


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2014 H1

'000t

Singapore Korea S. Thailand EU Others


• Supply sources and economic factors that have limited benzene production

• Global Benzene trade flows, with a closer look at the USA, China and India situations

• What is the outlook for the benzene market?

Benzene



Numerous Impacts on Benzene Supply/Price


Reformate

HDA

TDP PX Isom

Coal

Pygas

GasolineQuality /Feed Slate

Toluene BVBenzene Demand

Toluene BV

OlefinDemand/Feed

Slate

Coke/SteelDemand

PX Demand


Regional Benzene Production Sources 2013


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kt

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Toluenebased

Pygas

Reformer


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KTPyGas Reformate Toluene Coal Imports• Demand was 9 million

tons in 2000• Decreased by nearly

1/3 by 2013.◦ Imports account for

more than 20% of demand

◦ Less extraction feed offset by decreased demand from derivative units

2000-2013 Total US Benzene Production with Imports



W.Europe Benzene Production


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TDP

MSTDP & MPX

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Pygas


EU15 Quarterly Net trade as Benzene Equivalent


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Source: Eurostat

Cyclohexane

Cumene/Phenol

Styrene/EB

Benzene

Aniline


• Reformate extraction limited by:◦ declining petroleum-based gasoline demand◦ More usage of “renewable” or “green” blend components◦ Shift in crude quality◦ More emphasis on middle distillate production

• Pygas extraction limited by:◦ Advantaged “light” feeds produce much less pygas

Changes limit benzene production in the US and Europe



2012 – 2014 Monthly US Benzene Imports with Spot Price


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180USD/USG'000 t Korea Japan India W Europe FOB USGC

Benzene Imports by Country of Origin (in '000 t)

Jan - Jul2013 2014 Change Change in %

Korea 284 397 113 39.7%Japan 193 207 14 7.2%Brazil 112 73 -39 -35.0%India 95 80 -15 -15.8%Canada 132 119 -13 -9.8%Saudi Arabia

69 6 -63 -91.1%

Other 213 300 86 40.5%

Total 1098 1181 83 7.6%


• PX demand growth double that of benzene

• 16.5 mn t new paraxylenecapacity planned in 4 years

• 6mn t new benzene capacityplanned, mostly linked to PX

• PX cannot run at capacity in next five years

• Uncompetitive PX capacitywill be rationalized

• Feedstock a constraint for some PX capacity

Paraxylene and Benzene Capacity & Consumption


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PX Bz


2012-2014 Benzene Trade In China (t)


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Imports (t) Exports (t)


India Benzene Exports


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2014 World Benzene Trade


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1056750 328

48189


US Benzene Costs from Toluene Conversion and Import costs ex- Korea


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¢/G

AL

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ene

HDA TDP STDP FOB Korea +75 $/t freight


Benzene Pricing and Toluene based Costs - Korea


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STDP TDP HDA fob S.Korea


25 Years Benzene HDA Economics


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HDA @ Toluene Market Value

Benzene Spot cif ARA

HDA @ Toluene BV


• US Imports of benzene and exports of styrene will increase.• Availability of aromatics’ feed-stocks in Europe is falling.• India, the Middle East and the US will supply incremental C6

molecules to meet European needs.• Korea and India will be the main sources of increased benzene

exports to the US and Europe, based on co-product paraxyleneproduction.

• Paraxylene demand constraints will limit Asian benzene length.• China’s benzene import needs appear to be stabilising.• Toluene is long in Asia and Europe, tight in the US.• Disproportionation economics underpin US benzene pricing. • Hydrodealkylation economics may underpin European pricing.

Summary/Forward View


Any questions?

Documents

F Andy Nicholson Arguseliteconferences.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/J.pdf · 2014. 11. 3. · Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1