F l odR isk A v ce f r Jubilee Mill, Padiham - burnley.gov.uk Jubilee Mill FRAv2.pdf · F l odR isk A v ce f r Jubilee Mill, Padiham February 2010 Mark Mullany Burnley Borough Council

Flood Risk Advice for Jubilee Mill, Padiham

February 2010

Mark Mullany Burnley Borough Council – Planning and Environment P.O. Box 29 Parker Lane Offices Burnley Lancashire BB11 2DT

2009s0168_Final Jubilee Mill FRAv2.docx i

JBA Office JBA Consulting The Brew House Wilderspool Park Greenall's Avenue Warrington WA4 6HL

JBA Project Manager Chris Smith BSc PhD CEnv CSci MCIWEM MCMI

Revision History

Revision Ref / Date Issued Amendments Issued to

Draft v1.0 (Oct 09) Mark Mullany, Burnley Borough Council Philip Carter, Environment Agency

Final (Nov 09)

Removed sentence suggesting liaison with EA as their response on Draft has been obtained. Final sentence on P10 completed.

Mark Mullany, Burnley Borough Council

Final v2 (Feb10) Changed JBA Office address piii and p11 changed "sensible" to "preferable"

Mark Mullany, Burnley Borough Council

Contract This report describes work commissioned by Burnley Council, by email dated 30 September 2009. Burnley Borough Council’s representative for the contract was Mark Mullany. Sally Bielby of JBA Consulting carried out the work.

Prepared by Sally Bielby BSc MSc Analyst

Reviewed by Chris Smith BSc PhD CEnv CSci MCIWEM MCMI Principal Analyst

Purpose This document has been prepared as a Draft Report for Burnley Borough Council. JBA Consulting accepts no responsibility or liability for any use that is made of this document other than by the Client for the purposes for which it was originally commissioned and prepared.

JBA Consulting has no liability regarding the use of this report except to Burnley Borough Council. If the site is sold, the scope of the development changed or this report is provided to third parties then any liability or explicit or implied warranty is voided unless the consent of JBA Consulting is obtained.

2009s0168_Final Jubilee Mill FRAv2.docx ii

This report may be assigned by the Client by way of absolute legal assignment once only to another company taking over the whole of their interest in connection with the carrying out of the Development without the consent of JBA Consulting being required and such assignment shall be effective upon written notice thereof being given to JBA. If further assignment is required please contact JBA Consulting.

Acknowledgments The contribution of the Environment Agency in supplying the ISIS models and flood mapping for this project is acknowledged. Comments from the Environment Agency on the draft of this report are also acknowledged.

Flood Estimation Handbook ‘© NERC (CEH). © Crown copyright. © AA. 2006. All rights reserved’. CEH 2006. The Flood Estimation Handbook CD-ROM Version 2.0. Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxon, UK.’

Copyright © Jeremy Benn Associates Limited 2010

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A printed copy of the main text in this document will result in a carbon footprint of 74g if 100% post-consumer recycled paper is used and 94g if primary-source paper is used. These figures assume the report is printed in black and white on A4 paper and in duplex.

JBA is a carbon neutral company and the carbon emissions from our activities are offset.

2009s0168_Final Jubilee Mill FRAv2.docx iii

Executive Summary Burnley Borough Council commissioned JBA Consulting to provide flood risk advice on a number of proposed development sites that fall within the Environment Agency’s current Flood Zone 3, the highest level of risk. One such site is Jubilee Mill in Padiham, a Grade II listed building currently vacant for which conversion to residential use is proposed.

This initial review reported the Jubilee Mill site to be under high risk highlighting the requirement for a revised modelling approach in order to improve the definition of risk at this site, including generation of velocity and hazard grids. In order to refine the definition of risk at Jubilee Mill, a new 1D-2D linked ISIS-TUFLOW model of the study area has been constructed.

Jubilee Mills fall within the revised 4% AEP event outline although flood depths at the site are low, <0.1m. Jubilee Mill could be exposed to flood depths up to 0.5m for the 1% AEP plus climate change flood event and up to 0.8m for the 0.1% AEP event. Predicted hazard rating at Jubilee Mill for the 1% AEP plus climate change event ranges from 0.5 to 1.5; very low to danger for most. For the 0.1% AEP event hazard rating ranges from 1.0 to 2.5, i.e. danger for some to danger for all.

For the 4% and 1% plus climate change events the main source of flood water on the right bank is overtopping of the Shakespeare Street bridge deck rather than direct overtopping of the right bank. During the 0.1% AEP event flood water is predicted to overtop the right bank just upstream of Burns Street and then routes across Albion Mill and then Jubilee Mill sites. Flood flow also exits over the Shakespeare Street bridge deck.

Given the close proximity of Jubilee Mill to the Shakespeare Street bridge and the importance of bridge overtopping, blockage scenarios were investigated with a 50% blockage of capacity for the 1% plus climate change event. For the 1% AEP plus climate change event a 50% blockage of Shakespeare Street bridge INCREASED the predicted flood depth at Jubilee Mill by a maximum of 0.1m and hazard rating by a maximum of 0.15, compared to predicted depths and hazard ratings without the bridge blockage. The maximum predicted hazard category remains as danger for most.

To develop the site would require a combination of factors to be put in place, which might include:

Given the difficulties and dangers discussed it would not be preferable to put a More Vulnerable category development (e.g. residential) into this location. Less Vulnerable development (e.g. commercial) would be more appropriate but still subject to safety requirements but at least the likelihood of overnight habitation should be removed.

Usage of the ground floor of the property would need careful consideration. It is likely to flood fairly frequently without any mitigation, so would require a use compatible with that. Raising the floor level could be considered to reduce the impact of smaller flood events and flood resilience measures could be adopted to reduce the impact of the larger flood events which would still inundate the property.

Access and Egress from the site is one of the key difficulties with this site and one that is difficult to mitigate. The only point of access is in the highest risk part of the site and opens onto Shakespeare Street adjacent to the river, which during a flood event will be inundated with potentially fast flowing water. The hazard category at the point of exit is likely to be in the Danger for Some or Danger for Most categories during large flood events. Flood Warning and a formal evacuation procedure may be required to ensure that the site is vacated prior to a flood event and avoid the need for access during a flood.

Contents

2009s0168_Final Jubilee Mill FRAv2.docx

Executive Summary ........................................................................................................ iii�

1� Introduction ........................................................................................................ 1�

1.1� Background .......................................................................................................... 1�1.2� Key Data Sources ................................................................................................ 2�

2� Hydraulic modelling .......................................................................................... 3�

2.1� Modelling Approach ............................................................................................. 3�2.2� 1D (ISIS) Configuration........................................................................................ 3�2.3� 2D (TUFLOW) Configuration ............................................................................... 3�2.4� Model Run Time .................................................................................................. 5�

3� Flood Risk from Green Brook .......................................................................... 6�

3.1� Fluvial Flood Risk ................................................................................................ 6�3.2� Bridge Blockage Scenario ................................................................................... 6�3.3� Flood Management at Jubilee Mill ....................................................................... 9�3.4� Recommendations ............................................................................................... 11�


List of Figures Figure 1: Flood Outlines along Green Brook at the Albion and Jubilee Mill

Sites .................................................................................................................... 1�

Figure 2-1 Schematic Plan of the Green Brook 1D-2D Model .................................. 4�

Figure 2-2 Ground Topography within the Green Brook 1D-2D Model ................... 4�

Figure 2-3 Detail of spatially variant roughness map ............................................... 5�

Figure 3-1 Flood Outlines along the Jubilee Mill Site ............................................... 7�

Figure 3-2 1%AEP plus Climate Change Flood Depths across the Jubilee Mill Site ...................................................................................................................... 7�

Figure 3-3 1%AEP plus Climate Change Flood Flow Velocities across the Jubilee Mill Site .................................................................................................. 8�

Figure 3-4 0.1% AEP Flood Depths across the Jubilee Mill Site.............................. 8�

Figure 3-5 1%AEP plus Climate Change Flood Hazard Ratings across the Jubilee Mill Site .................................................................................................. 9�

Figure 3-6 0.1% AEP Hazard Ratings across the Jubilee Mill Site .......................... 9�

List of Tables Table 2-1: Roughness Categories for the 2D domain. ............................................... 5�

Abbreviations AEP Annual Exceedance Probability

BNC Burnley Nelson and Colne

FEH Flood Estimation Handbook

FSR Flood Studies Report

JFLOW 2D overland flow model

LIDAR Light Detection and Ranging

PPS25 Planning Policy Statement 2

SUDs Sustainable Urban Drainage

S105 Section 105 Model


1 Introduction

1.1 Background

Burnley Borough Council commissioned JBA Consulting to provide flood risk advice on a number of proposed development sitesFlood Zone 3, the highest level of risk. One such site is Jubilee Mill inII listed building currently vacant for which conversion t

Under agreement of the Environment Agency tConsulting1 used draft flood outlines from the 2008 Burnley, Nelson anFlood Risk Management StrategyNational Flood Zone maps. Figure and the 2008 BNC Strategy draft outlines,

Figure 1: Flood Outlines along Green Brook

© Crown Copyright. All rights reserved. Licence number 100021714 (2009)

The BNC Strategy models used to derive these outlinesand more detailed floodplain modelling which has produced more realistic flood outlinesthan the existing Environment Agency Flood ZonesISIS model and a raster 2D routing model (JFLOW) flood flow.

The initial review1 reported requirement for a revised modelling this site, including generation of of risk at Jubilee Mill, including generation of velocity grid to define key flow routes and hazard maps, a new 1D-2D linked ISIS

1 2009s0168_Final_Padiham and Burnley Flood Risk Advice

Jubilee Mill Site


commissioned JBA Consulting to provide flood risk advice on a number of proposed development sites that fall within the Environment Agency’s

highest level of risk. One such site is Jubilee Mill in PadihamII listed building currently vacant for which conversion to residential use is proposed.

Under agreement of the Environment Agency the initial advice provided by flood outlines from the 2008 Burnley, Nelson and Colne (BNC)

Flood Risk Management Strategy, which once finalised should supersede the existing Figure 1 shows the proposed Jubilee Mill development site

draft outlines, as used for the initial flood risk advice.

utlines along Green Brook at the Albion and Jubilee Mill Sites


used to derive these outlines are based on revised hydrology and more detailed floodplain modelling which has produced more realistic flood outlinesthan the existing Environment Agency Flood Zones. Water levels were derived from a 1D ISIS model and a raster 2D routing model (JFLOW) was used to map overland routes of

the Jubilee Mill site to be at high risk highlighting themodelling approach in order to improve the definition of risk

generation of velocity and hazard grids. In order to refine the definition including generation of velocity grid to define key flow routes and

2D linked ISIS-TUFLOW model of the study area is required.

2009s0168_Final_Padiham and Burnley Flood Risk Advice, JBA Consulting, September 2009.

1

commissioned JBA Consulting to provide flood risk advice on a within the Environment Agency’s current

Padiham, a Grade use is proposed.

advice provided by JBA d Colne (BNC)

once finalised should supersede the existing s the proposed Jubilee Mill development site

sk advice.

at the Albion and Jubilee Mill Sites

d on revised hydrology and more detailed floodplain modelling which has produced more realistic flood outlines

derived from a 1D o map overland routes of

highlighting the to improve the definition of risk at

In order to refine the definition including generation of velocity grid to define key flow routes and

odel of the study area is required.

2009s0168_Final Jubilee Mill FRAv2.docx 2

This report summarises the modelling methodology applied to improve definition of flood depths and also derive flood velocity and hazard grids for the proposed Jubilee Mill development site.

1.2 Key Data Sources

� ISIS model of Green Brook (Green Brook_v14.DAT) updated for the 2008 BNC Strategy: Source for river channel geometry and event specific flows.

� Filtered LiDAR as provided by the Environment Agency for the 2008 BNC Strategy: Main source of floodplain topographic data; filtered (2m definition).

� NFCDD: Source for basic flood defence crest level information; available in the form of upstream and downstream crest levels for each section of defence presumably from Environment Agency field survey.

� OS Mastermap as provided by the Environment Agency for the 2008 BNC Strategy: Source of land-use data for the creation of a spatially variant roughness map.


2 Hydraulic modelling

2.1 Modelling Approach

The study area under consideration is urban, with roads and buildings expected to be critical in determining the overland flow route of flood waters. A linked 1D-2D (ISIS-TUFLOW) modelling approach was chosen, with representation of the floodplains as a 2D domain, as this approach is widely considered to be the most suitable for mapping the complex flood patterns and flow routes expected in urban areas.

While the 2D (TUFLOW) component of the model was entirely new, the ISIS component of the model was adapted from the existing risk model of Green Brook (Green Brook_v14), updated for the 2008 BNC Strategy, supplied by the Environment Agency.

2.2 1D (ISIS) Configuration

The extent of the ISIS 1D model remained unaltered from that of the supplied model, with the upstream extent located at Molly Wood Lane and the downstream extend located at the confluence with the River Calder.

ISIS storage units representing the floodplain to be incorporated within the TUFLOW 2D domain were removed from the ISIS model to prevent 'double counting' of flood water storage capacity, i.e. representation within both the 1D and 2D components.

2.3 2D (TUFLOW) Configuration

700m of Green Brook was linked to a 2D domain of approximately 0.12km2, extending from just upstream of Burns Street (NGR 379976 433128) to the works weir at NGR 379566 433543 (Figure 2-1). The lateral extent of the 2D domain was defined using filtered LIDAR (Figure 2-2).

The choice of an appropriate 2D cell size is normally a compromise between modelling floodplain flow as accurately as possible and maintaining reasonable model run times and stable models. The ability to accurately capture flow along potentially narrow flow routes such as along roads and beneath the bridges typically requires a minimum cell size in the order of 5m. As the area encompassed by the 2D domain is predominantly urban a 4m cell size was used.

Filtered LIDAR was used to representation of ground topography, no adjustment to levels were made to represent buildings, the level of a building may vary over it's footprint.

The elevation of the spill crests between the channel (1D) and floodplain (2D) along the linked reach were configured using data from a bank height survey undertaken in 2008 for the BNC Strategy. This survey did not include the entire bank length included in the 2D modelled extent, thus filtered LiDAR was used to derive bank crest levels for sections not included in the topographic survey. Given the absence of NFCDD registered formal flood defences along the study reach, no adjustments were made to the surveyed or estimated natural bank heights.

The main river channel was disabled from 2D domain to prevent double counting of channel storage capacity.

Bridge decks were modelled in the 2D domain to enable consideration of potential flow routes from overtopped bridge decks.

A spatially variant floodplain roughness map was created using OS MasterMap data to differentiate between different land-use types. Each land-use category was then allocated an appropriate roughness value; typically high for buildings, low for roads and intermediate for other categories. An example of the level of detail evident in this approach is shown in Figure 2-3 and the roughness categories used are shown in Table 2-1.


The impact of buildings on the flow of flood water across the floodplains was modelled simply adjusting roughness rather than by adjusting model grid topography; the Manning’s value for each building polygon was increased to 0.2, based on Mastermap polygons.

Figure 2-1 Schematic Plan of the Green Brook 1D-2D Model


Figure 2-2 Ground Topography within the Green Brook 1D-2D Model


2D Domain

1D Domain

Proposed development sites

86 -88m

84 - 86m

82 - 84m

80 - 82m

<80m

LIDAR (m)


Figure 2-3 Detail of spatially variant roughness map


Table 2-1: Roughness Categories for the 2D domain.

Land Type Manning’s n

Non differentiated urban land (e.g. urban grassland, parks, non-concrete open space) 0.050

Buildings 0.200 Roads, tracks, paths & pavements 0.025 Railway 0.100 Surface Water 0.020

2.4 Model Run Time

A model hydrograph of 8 hour duration, which peaked at approximately 3.3 hours along Green Brook was run through the linked ISIS-TUFLOW models. An ISIS time step of 2 seconds and a TUFLOW time step of 2 seconds were used for all modelled events.

Inland Water

Buildings

Roads, Tracks and Paths

Rail

Land


3 Flood Risk from Green Brook Stage, depth, velocity and hazard maps across the 2D domain were saved for each event at half hourly intervals. The hazard data were recorded as UK Hazard ratings as per the latest DEFRA guidance2 by using the conservative approach with regard to debris factors. Depth and hazard grids were exported from the TUFLOW results at a definition of 4m and flood outlines were generated from the TUFLOW peak depth grids at the same resolution.

3.1 Fluvial Flood Risk

The revised flood extents derived using the 1D-2D modelling approach are shown in figure 3-1.

The revised 4% AEP event outline is slightly smaller than that derived for the 2008 Strategy using JFLOW, a simplified 2D modelling approach; however the southerly extent of Jubilee Mill remains within this flood zone. Flood water exits the channel via overtopping of the Shakespeare Street bridge deck and re-enters the channel in close proximity to Jubilee Mill.

The revised 1% AEP outline with climate change allowance is very similar to the BNC Strategy outline (Figure 3-1), the entire Jubilee Mill site falls within the flood outline. Again the main source of flood water on the right bank is overtopping of the Shakespeare Street bridge deck rather than direct overtopping of the right bank.

The revised 0.1% AEP flood (Flood Zone 2) outline is larger than the BNC Strategy outline particularly along the left bank in proximity to Thompson Street (Figure 3-1). During this event flood water overtops the right bank just upstream of Burns Street and then routes across Albion Mill and then Jubilee Mill sites. Flood flow also exits over the Shakespeare Street bridge deck.

Potential flood depths arising during a 4% AEP event do not exceed 0.10m at Jubilee Mill, with peak velocities of 0.3m3/s. Jubilee Mill could be exposed to flood depths up to 0.5m for the 1% AEP plus climate change flood event (Figure 3-2) with peak velocities of 1.0m3/s (Figure 3-3). Jubilee Mill could be exposed to flood depths up to 0.8m for the 0.1% AEP event (Figure 3-4) with peak velocities of 1.4m3/s.

Predicted hazard rating at Jubilee Mill for the 1% AEP plus climate change event ranges from 0.5 to 1.5; very low to danger for most (Figure 3-5). For the 0.1% AEP event hazard rating ranges from 1.0 to 2.5, i.e. danger for some to danger for all (Figure 3-6).

3.2 Bridge Blockage Scenario

Culverts and bridges can restrict flow and cause surcharging when a river structure has inadequate capacity. Given the close proximity of Jubilee Mill to the Shakespeare Street bridge, blockage scenarios were investigated with a 50% blockage of capacity for the 1% plus climate change event.

For the 1% AEP plus climate change event a 50% blockage of Shakespeare Street bridge INCREASED the predicted flood depth at Jubilee Mill by a maximum of 0.1m and hazard rating by a maximum of 0.15, compared to predicted depths and hazard ratings without the bridge blockage. The maximum predicted hazard category remains as danger for most.

2 SUPPLEMENTARY NOTE ON FLOOD HAZARD RATINGS AND THRESHOLDS FOR DEVELOPMENT PLANNING AND CONTROL PURPOSE – Clarification of the Table 13.1 of FD2320/TR2 and Figure 3.2 of FD2321/TR1. (http://randd.defra.gov.uk/Document.aspx?Document=FD2321_7400_PR.pdf).


Figure 3-1 Flood Outlines along the Jubilee Mill Site


Figure 3-2 1%AEP plus Climate Change Flood Depths across the Jubilee Mill Site


<0.25m

0.25 – 0.5m 0.5 – 1.0m 1.0 – 1.5m >1.5m

� ��

� ��

4% AEP

1% AEP plus Climate Change

0.1% AEP


Figure 3-3 1%AEP plus Climate Change Flood Flow Velocities across the Jubilee Mill Site


Figure 3-4 0.1% AEP Flood Depths across the Jubilee Mill Site


<0.25m

0.25 – 0.5m 0.5 – 1.0m 1.0 – 1.5m >1.5m

� ��

� ��

< 0.1

0.1 - 0.5

0.5 - 1.0

1.0 - 1.5

>1.5

Velocity (m/s)


Figure 3-5 1%AEP plus Climate Change Flood Hazard Ratings across the Jubilee Mill Site


Figure 3-6 0.1% AEP Hazard Ratings across the Jubilee Mill Site


3.3 Flood Management at Jubilee Mill

The more detailed modelling of this area has given a better representation of the linkage between river channel and floodplain flows, critical at a site so close to the watercourse, and has given greatly improved the depth, velocity and hazard information. Although the

Flood Hazard Rating Hazard to people

0 No Hazard

<0.75 Very Low Hazard 0.75 - 1.25 Danger for some 1.25-2.0 Danger for most

> 2.0 Danger for all

Flood Hazard Rating Hazard to people

0 No Hazard

<0.75 Very Low Hazard 0.75 - 1.25 Danger for some 1.25-2.0 Danger for most

> 2.0 Danger for all


information available has been improved it still shows that the Jubilee Mill site is at high flood risk.

The site is for redevelopment and as such is not subject to sequential testing. The primary consideration is whether the site would be safe during a flood event. There are several parts to that assessment that the more detailed modelling undertaken should improve our answer to.

Frequency of flooding

The part of the site close to the river, including the entrance, is predicted to flood with a frequency of more than once every twenty-five years (4% AEP). This is a high frequency of inundation. As the site is adjacent to watercourse and effectively at bank level a high frequency of inundation is not surprising.

Severity of flooding

During a 1% AEP plus climate change event the depth of water may be up to 0.5m and the hazard rated up to Danger for Most. Flooding is likely to occur for around 3 hours during this event.

Access and Egress

The main route in and out the site is directly adjacent to the Shakespeare Street Bridge in the south-east corner of the site. This is the area that is most severely affected by flood waters. Exiting the site would therefore involve passing through the deepest and fastest flowing flood waters before reaching safer areas.

There is no obvious alternative access route as the other sides of the site are bounded by the river or other properties.

Unless an alternative route can be found the access and egress to the site from Shakespeare Street will be difficult during a flood event.

Mitigation Measures

From the information discussed above it is clear that flood risks to the site are high. As such flood mitigation measures would need to be used if the site were to be developed. Potential mitigation measures are now considered with a view as to their likely effectiveness.

Development floor level raising - flood depths in the 1% AEP plus climate change event have a maximum depth at the building of 0.5m. Raising of floor levels within the building would largely mitigate the flood risk for the building during frequent flood events and vastly reduce the depth of flooding during larger flood events. The water depth is probably not high enough to require a non-habitable first floor. There may be a need to supply compensatory storage for the area taken out the floodplain. Although the flood area raised would be relatively small there is little option on the site for compensatory storage.

Flood Resilience - in conjunction with floor level raising flood resilient design would mitigate the impact of flooding within the property.

Flood Warning - the Jubilee Mill site is already within an Environment Agency flood warning area. Flood warning and the response to this is likely to be important in developing the site.

Flood defences - local flood defences to this site would be difficult to construct given the nature of flooding from the Shakespeare Street Bridge. It would seem unlikely they would be viable for this site alone. A more strategic review of flood risks and potential flood defence schemes is currently being undertaken by the Environment Agency (Burnley, Nelson and Colne Strategy). It would be premature to comment on the outcome of that study but it should not be expected to provide flood defences for the Jubille Mill site.


Land use - the proposed allocation of the site is for residential use. Although it will not change the flooding to the site, a change in vulnerability class from More Vulnerable to Less Vulnerable would at least reduce the likely impacts of a flood.

3.4 Recommendations

The flood risks to the Jubilee Mill site have been analysed in some detail. Although the work undertaken here has improved our understanding of the flood risks it has reinforced concerns over development of the site. The depth of flood water on the site is not necessarily too deep but the location of the access point in the area of highest risk is a particular concern.

To develop the site would require a combination of factors to be put in place, which might include:

Given the difficulties and dangers discussed it would not be preferable to put a More Vulnerable category development (e.g. residential) into this location. Less Vulnerable development (e.g. commercial) would be more appropriate but still subject to safety requirements but at least the likelihood of overnight habitation should be removed.

Usage of the ground floor of the property would need careful consideration. It is likely to flood fairly frequently without any mitigation, so would require a use compatible with that. Raising the floor level could be considered to reduce the impact of smaller flood events and flood resilience measures could be adopted to reduce the impact of the larger flood events which would still inundate the property.

Access and Egress from the site is one of the key difficulties with this site and one that is difficult to mitigate. The only point of access is in the highest risk part of the site and opens onto Shakespeare Street adjacent to the river, which during a flood event will be inundated with potentially fast flowing water. The hazard category at the point of exit is likely to be in the Danger for Some or Danger for Most categories during large flood events. Flood Warning and a formal evacuation procedure may be required to ensure that the site is vacated prior to a flood event and avoid the need for access during a flood.

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F l odR isk A v ce f r Jubilee Mill, Padiham - burnley.gov.uk Jubilee Mill FRAv2.pdf · F l odR isk A v ce f r Jubilee Mill, Padiham February 2010 Mark Mullany Burnley Borough Council