Failure and Success in Transition Inititatives

8/12/2019 Failure and Success in Transition Inititatives

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The University of Readings Walker Institute for Climate System Researchaims to enhance understanding and improve prediction of the risks andopportunities from our changing climate.

www.walker-institute.ac.uk

Walker Institute for Climate System ResearchResearch Note !ate" #ugust $%&'

(ailure and Success of

Transition Initiatives" a study ofthe international replication ofthe Transition )ovement

G. Feola 1 3, R.J. Nunes 23.

1 !epartment of *eography and +nvironmental Science,University of Reading, U-2 School of Real +state and lanning, University of Reading, U-3 Walker Institute for Climate System Research, University ofReading, U-


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Walker Institute Research Note " (ailure and Success of Transition Initiatives" a study of the international replication of the Transition )o vement

ACKNOWL!G"N#$

The authors are grateful to all mem/ers of the Transition Initiatives 0ho took their time to participate in this

study, and to those 0ho did not /ut 0ho sent constructive critics and comments that helped the authors

improve the research. Celeste Salter, )ichelle 1astian, )arco )auri, Isa/ela )aria *ome2 de )ene2es, 3olly

Salvidge, 4esus Cordero5Salvado, 4anine 1audach, Sophie Raynaud, and Rogerio 3enri6ue de #/reu providedinvalua/le help at different stages of the survey design, translation and dissemination. The authors also thank

#my 1urnett, eter )c)anners and *ill Seyfang for their comments on an earlier version of this manuscript,

and 4oan #lli/one for proof reading. The pro7ect 0as co5funded /y the School of 3uman and +nvironmental

Sciences and the School of Real +state and lanning at the University of Reading.

#O C%# #&%$ R'OR#

(eola *., R 4 Nunes 8$%&'9 :(ailure and Success of Transition Initiatives" a study of the international replication

of the Transition )ovement, Research Note 4, Walker Institute for Climate SystemResearch, University of

Reading, #ugust $%&', 000.0alker5institute.ac.uk;pu/lications;research provide a revie0 of recent research or highlight results of

relevance to policy and;or /usiness. Readers are encouraged to provide feed/ack to the author8s9 8contact

details a/ove9 or to the Walker Institute communications manager 8-athy )askell, k.maskell=reading.ac.uk9.

000.0alker5institute.ac.uk;pu/lications


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Walker Institute Research Note " (ailure and Success of Transition Initiatives" a study of the international replication of the Tr ansition)ovement

ContentsSummary ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... &&. Introduction ........................................................................................................................................................................................... $$. Theoretical conte?t .............................................................................................................................................................................. $

$.&. rinciples of transition............................................................................................................................................................... $$.$. Innovation from the /ottom up............................................................................................................................................. '$.'. (actors of *I success and failure" kno0ledge gaps ..........................................................................................................

'. )ethodology .......................................................................................................................................................................................... '.&. Case study" Transition Net0ork ............................................................................................................................................. @'.$. Success and failure of Transition Initiatives ....................................................................................................................... @'.'. +?planatory factors ..................................................................................................................................................................... @'.. !ata collection and analysis .................................................................................................................................................... A

. Results ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... B.&. Success and failure of grassroots innovations ................................................................................................................... B.$. (actors of success and failure of grassroots innovations ............................................................................................. &%

.$.&. Transition Initiatives" characteristics and mem/ers ............................................................................................ &%.$.$. rganisation ...................................................................................................................................................................... &$.$.'. Resources ............................................................................................................................................................................ &$.$.. Conte?t ................................................................................................................................................................................ &'

.'. (actors that contri/uted to the success of transition initiatives .............................................................................. &D.. # typology of Transition Initiatives...................................................................................................................................... &B

@. !iscussion ............................................................................................................................................................................................. $'@.&. Success and failure of grassroots innovations ................................................................................................................. $'@.$ (actors of success and failure of grassroots innovations .............................................................................................. $'@.' Eimitations and directions for future research ................................................................................................................ $@

D. Conclusions .......................................................................................................................................................................................... $DReferences ................................................................................................................................................................................................. $A#ppendi? .................................................................................................................................................................................................... '&


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Summary*rassroots innovations 8*I9 are :net0orks of activists and organisations generating novel /ottom5upsolutions for sustaina/le development 8Seyfang and Smith, $%%A, p. @B@9. They are promising

e?amples of local community responses to glo/al environmental change and have thereforeattracted gro0ing attention among researchers and policy5makers. In this paper 0e e?amine thesuccess and failure of *Is in addressing climate change /y taking the Transition Net0ork 8TN9 as acase study. The TN is often presented as a case of success due to its rapid 0orld0ide diffusion andincreasing pu/lic visi/ility, although recent analyses of individual :transition initiatives haveuncovered some /arriers to its development and e?amples of failure. We investigate ho0 transitioninitiatives define success, and the factors that contri/ute to it. *Is are typically researched throughin5depth, local, 6ualitative studies, /ut there remains a need to /etter understand general patternsof success and failure in different conte?ts internationally. We comparatively study transitioninitiatives 0orld0ide /y means of an online survey 8sample F $AD9 in 0hich /oth active anddiscontinued initiatives are considered. /7ective and su/7ective definitions of success arecompared and correlated, and a range of internal and e?ternal factors potentially contri/uting to

success is investigated 6uantitatively.We find that the success of transition initiatives is defined according to 8i9 social connectivity andempo0erment 8i.e. social links to mem/ers of local communities, /uilding capacity andempo0ering social actors9, as 0ell as 8ii9 e?ternal impact 8i.e. contri/ution to improvedenvironmental performance or socio5technical innovation9. We also conclude that TI mem/ers tendto focus on internal factors of TI success, and overlook e?ternal ones, 0hich may /e related to a lackof a0areness of their environment, of skills to engage 0ith it, or the need to focus on the mostcontrolla/le factors in early stages of development. Nevertheless our results do suggest that, 0hilstthere is no formula for more, or less success, TIs can /e arranged into four clusters of varia/lesuccess and failure. #mong the characteristics of successful TIs are" a large num/er of founders, agood representation of diversity in the /roader community, the presence and si2e of a steeringgroup, the organi2ation in thematic su/groups, the official TN recognition, the ac6uisition of a legal

statutory form, specific training in transition and permaculture practice, resources 8time ande?ternal funds9, location 8rural, rather than ur/an9, a favoura/le conte?t 8i.e. perception of the TI /yother actors9, and cooperation 0ith other actors 8e.g. local authorities, /usiness, media, other TIs9.

(inally, 0e shed light on some key open issues in transition theory 0ith regard to 8i9 thecom/ination of different forms of transition, G lifecourse, environmental and political5economic G0hich assumes a consolidation and standardisation of learning processes that may drive thereplication of *Is> 8ii9 maintaining the compulsion to act through reiterated narratives of risk5ladenfutures, seeking to reinforce alternative practices across scales 8from local to glo/al9> and 8iii9 theemplacement or spatial conte?ts of transition initiatives. (irst, our research suggests that TIs remainlargely determined /y situated processes despite their interdependence 0ith a glo/al actionnet0ork like the TN. In other 0ords local conte?tual factors largely determine the success andfailure of community initiatives. Second, 0hilst the TN seems capa/le of generalising organisational

principles of :transition from uni6ue local e?periences that may have glo/al application, our resultssuggest that the transfer of these principles to ur/an TIs might /e less effective due to unfavoura/leconditions 8high social diversity, lo0 attachment to place9 that are not compensated /y theirinterdependent links to glo/al action net0orks. 1oth o/servations argua/ly have significantimplications for future research on the gro0ing interest in lo05car/on ur/an initiatives and meritfuture investigation through longitudinal studies.


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&. IntroductionWith a gro0ing /ody of evidence on human activity induced changes to the +arths climate 8ICC,$%%A9 and international governance regimes faltering 8Houng, $%&&9, gro0ing attention has /een

given to local climate change adaptation and mitigation responses. # significant part of this researchhas focused on ur/an policy5making and governance 8e.g. 1urch, $%&%> )oloney et al., $%&%> Castn1roto and 1ulkeley, $%&'9, including a complementary emphasis on /usiness5 or market5ledinnovation 8*rin et al., $%&%9. Such research has often focused on top5do0n programmes and onthe individual and conte?tual factors that local authorities can act upon to facilitate /ehaviouralchange to0ards less car/on intensive practices 81ulkeley, $%%@> 1ulkeley and -ern, $%%D> )oloneyet al., $%&%9. 3o0ever, gro0ing attention has /een paid to yet another type of phenomenon,namely :grassroots innovations 8*Is9, 0hich are not led /y municipal institutions, /ut rather emergeas :net0orks of activists and organisations generating novel /ottom5up solutions for sustaina/ledevelopment 8Seyfang and Smith, $%%A, p. @B@> see also Eeach et al., $%&$9.

In this paper 0e e?amine the success and failure of *Is in addressing climate change. To do this, 0etake the Transition Net0ork 8TN9 as a case study 8Transition Net0ork, $%&$9. The TN is oftenpresented as a case of success due to its rapid 0orld0ide diffusion and increasing pu/lic visi/ility,although recent analyses of individual cases have uncovered some /arriers to its development ande?amples of failure 83opkins, $%&&> Smith, $%&&> Wells, $%&&> Seyfang and 3a?eltine, $%&$9. #s aresult of its formalised international organisational structure and its 0ide geographical distri/ution,the TN represents a relevant case study in that it allo0s for an e?ploration of the factors of successand failure of *Is in different local conte?ts. We aim to improve the understanding of *Is and, inparticular, to investigate the conditions for their success as a form of response to climate change.What is a successful transition initiative 8TI9, and 0hat factors facilitate or contri/ute to its successJ

The paper is structured as follo0s. #fter a /rief overvie0 of the literature on *Is, 0e identify thekno0ledge gaps on the research pro/lem of success and failure of *Is and state the research6uestions that guided this study. We then move to the presentation of the methodology, 0hichincluded a survey5/ased data collection follo0ed /y statistical analysis and clustering of TIs. #presentation of the results follo0s, 0here/y 0e test the initial hypotheses and uncover someconfigurations of internal and e?ternal conditions for success. (inally 0e discuss this studys results,considering the literature on *Is and suggesting some promising avenues for future research.

$. Theoretical conte?t

$.&. rinciples of transitionThe notion of :transition has /ecome increasingly central to futures5oriented thinking 8)oloney etal., $%&%> )ulugetta et al., $%&%> 1ro0n et al., $%&$9. 1ro0n et al. suggest three principles of

transition" philosophies, policies and practices. They claim the term is :increasingly /eing used tocombinedifferent forms of transition G lifecourse, environmental, and political5economic 81ro0n etal., $%&$, p. &D%B9. The com/ination of different forms of transition assumes aggregation,consolidation and standardisation of learning processes that underpin the successful gro0th anddevelopment of *Is. Though recent studies illustrate that some fields of *Is may replicate anddevelop unencum/ered /y 0eak learning processes as a result of peer5to5peer kno0ledgedissemination 8Seyfang and 3a?eltine, $%&$> Seyfang and Eonghurst, $%&'9. The different politicalconnotations of the term :transition, and the conse6uent discord over imagined futures, challengethe assumptions that iterative learning processes and e?perimentation may lead to a convergenceof pro5environmental /ehaviour to0ards climate change G from alternative economies toretrofitting the /uilt environment 8TR#+S+, $%%B> 3ollo0ay and Sergi, $%&%9.

Secondly, driven for0ard /y such imminent threats as climate change and peak oil, 1ro0n et al.

8$%&$9 also suggest transition approaches rely on compulsionor affective governance, i.e. :a sensethat the 8risk5laden9 future is pressing upon the present perhaps more than ever /efore 81ro0n et


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al., $%&$, p. &D&K9, to hold together community initiatives 8see also Smith, $%&&9. The compulsionmay involve the interdependence /et0een local initiatives and non5local net0orks, 0here/y theformer enact transition practices and e?periments informed /y the repetitive iteration of narrativesof the risk5laden future 8SpLth and Rohracher, $%&$9. Though, 0hilst such partnerships mayencourage *I success /y legitimising, institutionalising and there0ith em/edding alternativepractices into standardised processes, a trade5off /et0een successful diffusion 8i.e. replication of

e?perimentation9 and innovation control 8in the face of diverse values and e?pectations in differentniches9 may e?ist 8rnet2elder and Rohracher, $%&'9.

Eastly, 0hilst relying on the rhetoric of glo/al imminent trends, *Is are the product of locale?perimentation 8North, $%&%9. #l/eit deployed in different 0ays, 1ro0n et al. 8$%&$9 suggest thatthe spaces, places and scales of transition approaches or their emplacementena/le futures narrativesto hold together. Transition, they claim, :does not 0ork 0ithout 8local9 places /ecause those placesoffer the milieu G and the affective attachments G through 0hich generic senses of responsi/ility,resilience, and relatedness may /e most easily imagined and held together 8p. &D$%9. (eitelson8&KK&, cf. !evine5Wright, $%&'9 first proposed that research on human responses to glo/al climatechange had neglected attachment to place 8Scannell and *ifford, $%&% for revie0 of definitions9,and that these actions could /e felt /oth locally 0here people live andglo/ally. !evine5Wright8$%&'9 reintroduced this de/ate, e?ploring 0hether cognitive pro?imity to climate change, as a

glo/al pro/lem, can emerge from /oth glo/al as 0ell as local concerns. The success of *Is may /erooted in pre5e?isting net0orks, and inter5scalar arrangements, 0hich has dra0n recent attention tothe spatial conte?ts, or space, scale and place, of socio5technical transitions 83odson and )arvin,$%&%> Coenen et al., $%&$> Truffer and Coenen, $%&$9. In other 0ords, the pro5environmental/ehaviour associated 0ith *Is may /e neither only :local nor :glo/al, and the local and glo/allinkages to the places, and events through 0hich the practice of adaptation and mitigation isperformed, contested and validated, is a pertinent consideration of the diffusion and scale5up ofcommunity5led initiatives 8SpLth and Rohracher, $%&$> Nunes, $%&'9.

$.$. Innovation from the /ottom up*Is support the processes of local niche creation, i.e. the incu/ation of socio5technical innovation in

the face of mainstream values, technologies and actors 8Seyfang and Eonghurst, $%&'9, although the6uestion remains 0hether, given the strong local specificity of cultural, social and technologicallandscapes that inform local *Is, any generalisation can /e dra0n on the e?periences of communityresponses to glo/al environmental change 8!evine5Wright and Wiersma, $%&'9. *Is may /econnected to :glo/al action net0orks 8*las/ergen, $%&%9 and interdependent 0ith the :glo/al8Wilson, $%&$9, 0hilst retaining a strong connotation to social innovation and resilience throughalternatives to conventional markets or a promotion of the :local 8*las/ergen, $%&%> )ayer and-no?, $%&%> !evine5Wright and Wiersma, $%&'9. 1ecause *Is involve less po0erful non5/usinessactors, they are not al0ays visi/le to and supported /y policy makers, and therefore their potentialremains largely underdeveloped 81ergman et al., $%&%9. Nevertheless, many positive accounts ofspecific *Is have /een provided and *Is are often seen as niches of e?perimentation of ne0 social,cultural, economic, technological arrangements 8Seyfang and 3a?eltine, $%&$> rnet2elder and

Rohracher, $%&'9. It is recognised that *Is can act as incu/ators of the social change that is neededto respond to, and minimise, future environmental change 8Eeach et al., $%&$> 1rien, $%&$9. *Isoften challenge the status 6uo 8i.e. technologies, values, practices9 and promote ne0 forms oforganisation of social and economic life 8e.g. local currencies9, and alternative systems of provision8such as local food systems and community energy9 8Seyfang $%&&> eters et al., $%&$9.

There is a su/stantive distinction /et0een technological innovation, and social innovation 83o0aldtand Sch0ar2, $%&%9. Whereas the former is centred on technological artefact the latter isunderstood through social everyday practice. )oulaert et al. 8$%%@9 identify three dimensions ofthis practice. The first of these dimensions is addressing human needs, follo0ed /y ad7usting thedynamics of social relations 0ith the aim of increasing levels of participation and inclusivity, andlastly increasing the capa/ility and access to resources. Thus, 0e e?tend the focus of innovation ontangi/le improvements or solutionsto an appreciation of the :change of attitudes, /ehaviour, Mand

perceptions 8Neumeier, $%&$, p. @@9, as 0ell as to the potential for ne0 hy/rid or emergent formsof colla/orative action that may /e successful onlyin generating immaterial or intangi/le /enefits83o0aldt and Sch0ar2, $%&%9. (inally, 0e recognise that 0hat is novelor :ne0 is not necessarily


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'.&. Case study" Transition Net0orkThis study takes the Transition Net0ork 8TN9 as a case study 8Transition Net0ork, $%&$9. The TNoriginated in Totnes, !evon 8United -ingdom9 in $%%D 83opkins, $%&&9. It is a transnationalgrassroots movement active in & countries that seeks to deal 0ith climate change, shrinkingsupplies of cheap fossil fuels 8:peak oil9, and a gro0ing recognition of the do0nsides of the current

economic model, made apparent /y the $%%B financial crisis 8Smith, $%&&9. The TN promotes:energy descent and local resilience to /e achieved through the :unleashing of the creativity,motivation and kno0ledge of communities. # ma7or theme in TN transition is that of re5localisation,0hich entails the reduction of the dependency on unsta/le glo/al markets and increasingly moree?pensive transport. Re5localisation also concerns the 0illingness of :transitioners to take directaction, 0hich is usually focused on a rather definite set of themes, among 0hich food, transport,energy and local currencies are the most fre6uent 83opkins, $%&&9. The TN has developed in time aset of guidelines, originally modelled on the first transition initiative in Totnes. # TransitionHandbook83opkins, $%%B9, a Transition Initiatives Primer81rang0yn and 3opkins, $%%B9 andTransition Companion83opkins, $%&&9 have /een pu/lished. The transition model 81rang0yn and3opkins, $%%B9 is a set of &$ :steps to transition that are meant to guide communities to set up asuccessful TI 8Ta/le #D in the #ppendi?9. Communities can adapt these steps to their specific case,and therefore they do not need to make up a compulsory list. They 0ere recently re5ela/orated inthe :@ ingredients of transition 83opkins, $%&&9. The TN is made up of local TIs, regional andnational hu/s, 0ith a central point of reference in the TI in Totnes 8United -ingdom9. The TNdevelops the movements overall strategy and transition guidelines, and delivers training fortransitioners, consultancy services, facilitation of information e?change and learning among localTIs. Importantly, the TN also esta/lished a system of /randing, according to 0hich communities thatdesire to /e recognised as :official mem/ers of the net0ork need to comply 0ith a set of criteriasuch as having attended a training session, having drafted and approved a constitution, /ecomposed of at least four or five people and demonstrate commitment to net0ork 0ith others,including locally and 0ith authorities 81rang0yn and 3opkins, $%%B> Smith, $%&&9. TIs that areinspired /y the TN principles /ut that do not comply 0ith these criteria are listed as :mullerinitiatives.

'.$. Success and failure of Transition Initiatives*iven the diversity of TIs and their activities in different conte?ts 83opkins, $%&&> Wells, $%&&9, itcan /e controversial to identify universal indicators of success of a TI. rnet2elder and Rohracher8$%&'9, for e?ample, argued that initiatives may tend to define success either in terms of theirinternal interactions, or of the e?ternal impact, and !evine5Wright and Wiersma 8$%&'9 suggestedthat the former might prevail over the latter. n the other hand, /ecause TIs /y and large follo0shared guidelines as presented for e?ample in the Transition Primer81rang0yn and 3opkins, $%%B9or the Transition Companion83opkins, $%&&9, some /asic characteristics can /e pointed out,discounted for the differences due to specific local configurations. (ollo0ing a traditionaldistinction in social indicator research 8e.g. Oeenhoven, $%%$9, 0e measured the degree of successof a TI through t0o measures, a su/7ective and an o/7ective one. The former focused on :soft

aspects and related to the respondents a0areness and positional evaluation of the TI, 0hile thelatter considered :hard facts that did not depend on the respondents a0areness or his;herevaluation 8Oeenhoven, $%%$9. The su/7ective measure of success consisted of a Eikert scale8:verall, do you consider your transition initiative very successful, fairly successful, not verysuccessful, or not successful at allJ9 coupled 0ith an open 6uestion to document the su/7ectiveidea of success 8:What do you think are the three most important characteristics of a successfultransition initiativeJ9. The o/7ective measure of success considered the num/er of mem/ers orpeople involved in the TI 8i.e. critical mass9 as suggested /y )ulugetta et al. 8$%&%9, the duration ofthe TI, and the progress made to0ards the &$ steps to transition 8pro?y for the level of activity anddevelopment9.

'.'. +?planatory factorsConsidering earlier evidence on specific case studies of Tis and *is more /roadly, five groups ofinterdependent factors that potentially influence the success of TIs 0ere considered" TI


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characteristics, members, resources, organizationand contet, and respective hypotheses formulated8Ta/le &9.

)any of the selected factors do not identify uni5, /ut /i5directional relationships /et0een the TI asan incu/ator of innovative niches and the socio5technical regimes 8e.g. food, energy system9. #ssho0n /y a gro0ing /ody of literature on *Is 8e.g. Smith et al., $%%@> Smith and Raven, $%&$9, the TI

8i.e. niche9 can play an active role in interacting 0ith the conte?t 8i.e. other niches, the socio5technical regime9 and thus contri/ute to shaping the conditions for its o0n success or failure.Conse6uently, many factors, especially among contetand resources8Ta/le &9 are endogenous andmust /e interpreted as pre5conditions /ut also as results of a TIs interactions. Such comple?ity 0asconsidered in the data analysis and is discussed later on in this paper. # complete list of the varia/lesmeasured in relation 0ith each factor and their definition is availa/le in the #ppendi?.

Table !" #planatory $actors considered in this study"

Grou) o* *actors Factor &+)otesis. #e transition initiatie is ore

success*ul i*/

Re*erence

TI characteristics Rurality it is located in a rural;to0n;village setting in

0hich social net0orks are denser and social

capital higher.

Smith 8$%&&9

Eegal status it has a legal status that facilitates the interaction

0ith other actors such as local authorities.

)ulgan 8$%%D9>

1rang0yn and 3opkins

8$%%B9

#ctivities;themes

addressed

it addresses PeasyP themes first and more

comple? ones at a later stage.

5

Hears needed for a

TI to /ecome official

it takes some time to /ecome officially

recognised /y the Transition Net0ork, i.e. it goes

through a significant consolidation and

potentially a learning process.

5

fficial vs mulling it is officially recognised /y the Transition

Net0ork and therefore /enefits of /eing in such

net0ork in terms of e.g. kno0ledge e?change,

training, partnership.


8$%%B9

Country it is located in specific countries. 5

)em/ers #ge most of its mem/ers are at a a specific age )iddlemiss and arrish

8$%&%9

Skills a significant num/er of steering group mem/ers

are specifically trained 8e.g. group management,

motivation, coaching9

3offmann and 3igh5

ippert 8$%&%9> 1rang0yn

and 3opkins 8$%%B9>

3opkins 8$%&&9>

)iddlemiss and arrish

8$%&%9> rnet2elder and

Rohracher 8$%&'9

Representation of

minorities;diversity

it effectively represents the diversity of the local

community

Smith 8$%&&9> Quilley

8$%&$9

Earge num/er of

founders

the group of founders 0as /ig )iddlemiss and arrish

8$%&%9

+ducational level a significant num/er of steering group mem/ers

have high educational levels and therefore skills

that might /e critical in the TI development


8$%&%9

rganisation Recruitment it actively recruits its mem/ers 3offmann and 3igh5ippert 8$%&%9> Wells


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Grou) o* *actors Factor &+)otesis. #e transition initiatie is ore

success*ul i*/

Re*erence

8$%&&9

aid staff it can rely on paid staff and therefore does not

over5rely on volunteers

Wells 8$%&&9

Internal conflict;

Ideology

it can limit internal ideological conflict and;or

managed it positively

Seyfang and Smith

8$%%A9> Smith 8$%&&9

Steering group it has a steering group 1rang0yn and 3opkins

8$%%B9> 3opkins 8$%&&9

Si2e of steering

group

it has a large steering group 1rang0yn and 3opkins

8$%%B9

Internal

communication

it manages internal communication 0ell 1rang0yn and 3opkins

8$%%B9> 3opkins 8$%&&9>

rnet2elder and

Rohracher 8$%&'9

+?ternal

communication

it manages e?ternal comunication 0ell 1rang0yn and 3opkins

8$%%B9> 3opkins 8$%&&9

Internal organi2ation

/y su/groups

it is organised in su/groups 8e.g. thematic or

pro7ect5/ased9


8$%%B9

Resources Infrastructure it utilises critical infrastructure 8e.g. meeting

rooms, computers9

3offmann and 3igh5

ippert 8$%&%9>


8$%&%9

(unding it can secure sources of funding Seyfang and Smith

8$%%A9> )iddlemiss and

arrish 8$%&%9

Time resources its mem/ers dispose of significant time to

dedicate to the TIs initiatives


8$%&%9

Conte?t re5e?istence of

/ottom5up initiatives

it /uilds on a pre5e?isting group 8e.g. grassroots

movement, N*9

Wells 8$%&&9>

rnet2elder and

Rohracher 8$%&'9

re5e?istence of

participatory

democracy

it is located in a conte?t in 0hich there are forms

of participatory democracy 0hich facilitate

pu/lic participation in local governance

Wells 8$%&&9

Cooperation;partners

hip 0ith other

organi2ations

it is a/le to cooperate or act in partnership 0ith

other organi2ations 8e.g. local authorities,

/usiness, media9


8$%%B9> 3opkins 8$%&&9>

rnet2elder and

Rohracher 8$%&'9

(avoura/le conte?t it is located in a conte?t in 0hich other

actors8e.g. local authorities, /usiness, media9

perceive the TI positively

)ulgan 8$%%D9> Seyfang

and Smith 8$%%A9

'.. !ata collection and analysis#n online survey 0as carried out in )ayG#ugust $%&$ through the Surveymonkey platform8surveymonkey.com9. # list of TIs 0as /uilt /y mining information from the TN 0e/site and the0e/sites of the national hu/s of the TN 8United States of #merica, Ireland, Nor0ay, S0eden, TheNetherlands, Canada, 4apan, #ustralia, United -ingdom, Ne0 ealand, (rance, ortugal, 1ra2il,

*ermany, S0it2erland, Spain, Chile and Italy9. +ach TI 0as invited via email to fill in one6uestionnaire online. Where possi/le, the TIs spokesperson 0as contacted, or other0ise a mem/er


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of the TIs steering group. In a fe0 cases the invitation to participate in the survey 0as sent to ageneral email address provided as a contact point /y the TI. &&AK invitations 0ere sent out and onereminder 0as sent out a month after the first invitation. In addition, the invitation 0as circulatedthrough social net0orks 0here mem/ers of the TN are active 8e.g. 0iser.org, linkedin.com,transition/rasil.ning.com9, and 0e/sites 8e.g. transitionresearchnet0ork.org,reading.ac.uk;rep;transitionresearchreading9. The national transition hu/s of the TN 0ere also asked

to circulate the invitation 0ithin their national net0ork. In this 0ay, 0e attempted to account forthe fact that the population of TIs is rather volatile, 0ith ne0 TIs created and others potentiallyceasing their activity very fre6uently, and not /eing under the radar of the listings that appear on, fore?ample, the TN 0e/sites and not necessarily /eing up to date. The 6uestionnaire 0as availa/le in+nglish, (rench, *erman, Spanish, ortuguese and Italian. It had t0o separate /ut parallel 6uestionpaths for active and non5active TIs respectively. !ata on the non5active TIs related to their activity/efore /eing discontinued. The 6uestions 0ere structured into the follo0ing sections" transitioninitiative characteristics, members, success, organisation, resources and contet.

The sample is self5selected and statistically non5representative of the population of TIs. $AD valid6uestionnaires 0ere returned. The 6uestionnaires 0ere completed most fre6uently /y the TIsspokesperson 8D of cases9, or /y another mem/er of the TIs steering group 8$K.D of cases9, thatis, /y a person 0ho can /e assumed to have a good understanding and overvie0 of the TI. The

sample over5represents official versus mulling initiatives. With respect to country coverage, itslightly over5represents TIs in the United -ingdom, Italy and 1elgium 0hereas it slightly under5represents those in the United States of #merica and (rance 8see Ta/les #$ and #' in the #ppendi?for more detail on the sample9.

The data analysis 0as carried out 0ith SSS &K in three stages. (irstly, a descriptive analysis of thedependent and independent varia/les 0as carried out 8sections .& and .$ /elo09. Secondly, thedriving hypotheses 8Ta/le &9 0ere tested in an e?ploratory /ivariate analysis /y means of earsonChi5S6uare test 8for categorical varia/les9 and )annGWhitney U test 8for numeric varia/les98section .' /elo09. The effect si2es of the relationships 0ere also estimated. (inally, 0e conducteda multivariate analysis /y identifying clusters of TIs via an SSS t0o5step cluster analysis 8Chiu et al.,$%%&9 /ased on the varia/les that in the second stage 0e found to significantly correlate 0ith thedependent varia/le 8section . /elo09. This procedure allo0s ro/ust clusters to /e identified incases of presence of mi?ed numerical and categorical data, such as in this study. #lthough theassumption of varia/le independence did not hold in this study, this procedure has /een sho0n to/e ro/ust against violation of this assumption 8Norusis, $%&$9. Clustering allo0ed for the creation ofTI types and therefore 0as consistent 0ith our research aim to identify general patterns of failureand success, 0hile also accounting for their endogeneity and the high diversity of TIs.

. Results

.&. Success and failure of grassroots innovations

The ma7ority of TIs 0as considered very or fairly successful. The percentage of successful TIs 0ashigher among active than non5active TIs 8Ta/le $9.

Table %" &evel o$ success o$ transition initiatives"

Leel o* success Actie #%s Non-actie #%s All #%s

N 0 N 0 N 0

Oery successful 'D &'.K % %.% 'D &'.%

(airly successful &A% [email protected] ' &A.D &A' D$.A

Not very successful @% &K.' K @$.K @K $&.

Not successful at all ' &.$ @ $K. B $.K

Total $@K &%%.% &A &%%.% $AD &%%.%


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9

TIs tended to define success in terms of four classes of factors, 0hich 0e la/elled human, eternal,organisationand resources. The responses to the open5ended survey 6uestion, as categorisedaccording to these four factors, are sho0n in Ta/le # in the #ppendi?. The most highly mentionedcharacteristics 8more than B% times9 of a successful TI 0ere the critical mass of active volunteers ormem/ers 8human9, 0hich mirrors the community involvement in the grassroots initiative, and thea/ility to produce practical effects and achieve concrete goals in the community 8 organisation9, i.e.

not to limit the activities to informational or a0areness5raising campaigns, /ut rather to producechange in, for e?ample, technologies and practices. # highly cited 8DK times9 human factor 0as alsothe capacity to sustain motivation, enthusiasm and to promote a positive, am/itious approach.#mong the human factors, another set of characteristics that 0as fre6uently mentioned 8$D to 'Ktimes9 0as related to the principles that guide participation in a successful TI, 0hich 0ereconsidered to revolve around positivity, fun, conviviality and sense of community. #mong theorganisation factors, t0o areas can /e distinguished" outreach and internal group management. (ora TI to /e successful there is the need for developing outreach pro7ects such as education anda0areness5raising in the community. )oreover, vision and leadership 0ere often consideredessential characteristics of a successful TI, together 0ith the a/ility to manage internal activities in asimple, non5/ureaucratic manner, democratically and creatively. #mong the e?ternal factors,partnership 0ith different local actors 80ith other informal organisations or the local authorities9

0as also fre6uently considered to contri/ute to the success of a TI. verall, it is apparent that theTIs su/7ective understanding of success tended to /e /ased on internal rather than e?ternal factors.

Ta/le ' sho0s a summary of the descriptive statistics of the o/7ective measure of success. # highvariation is o/served regarding num/er of mem/ers, steps undertaken, and the duration of the TI.)em/ership of a TI is a floating concept, since most TIs did not re6uire any official mem/ership.Thus, the definition of 0hat a mem/er is varies markedly and might include volunteers /ut alsopeople connected through mailing lists or social net0orks. # more meaningful indicator of successmight therefore /e the num/er of active TI mem/ers, i.e. those 0ho regularly participate in the TIactivities 8e.g. general organisation, pro7ects and events9. In the ma7ority of cases 8B@9 and inparticular in large TIs, the num/er of active mem/ers 0as lo0er than the num/er of total mem/ersin B@ of the sampled TIs 8not sho0n in ta/le9. )ost of the TIs addressed several of the :&$ steps totransition suggested in the Transition Primer81rang0yn and 3opkins, $%%B9. Regarding duration, on

average the TIs had e?isted for less than four years, 0hich is consistent 0ith the relatively recentdevelopment of the TN, especially outside the United -ingdom. In a marginal num/er of cases the TIhad e?isted for longer than the TN itself, 0hich is possi/ly e?plained /y the fact that the TI pre5e?isted as a grassroots initiative in some other form, and formally adopted the transition model at alater stage.

#s sho0n in Ta/le ', the TIs that 0ere veryor$airly success$uland those that 0ere not veryor not atall success$ul differed significantly regarding total mem/ers, active mem/ers, steps to transitionundertaken and duration. In other 0ords, the su/7ective measure of success initially considered inthis study tends to correspond to the o/7ective one.

Table '" Total members, active members steps addressed and duration by level o$ sub(ective success )ctiveTransition Initiatives *+ann-hitney . test/"

ariale er+ o* *airl+

success*ul

Not er+ or not

success*ul at all

Total mem/ers 8people9 )ean &BK,@& $,BA

Std dev $A@,'A DD,A&

#ctive mem/ers 8people9 )ean '',$' &%,$

Std dev '@,$ A,''

Steps of transition )ean B,BB D,AK

Std dev $,$& $,

!uration 8years9 )ean ',K$ ',%A

Std dev $,B$ &,$&

Significant at @ level> Significant at & level


13/42


10

.$. (actors of success and failure of grassroots innovations

.$.&. Transition Initiatives" characteristics and mem/ersTa/le sho0s a summary of the varia/les associated 0ith the TI characteristicsand members. Thetype of TI 0as defined /ased on the conventional TN denomination 8i.e. city;ur/an, village, to0n,

forest, rural, island9. The TN recommends TIs to constitute a formal organisation 81rang0yn and3opkins, $%%B9, 0hich may take several forms such as, in the 1ritish system, a trust, cooperative orcharita/le incorporated organisation, many of 0hich are legal entities. The ma7ority of TIs 8D90ere constituted in a legal form and 0ere officially recognised /y the TN 8@A9. n average the TIsthat /ecame official took &% months to do so.

The most fre6uent primary overarching themes addressed /y the TIs 0ere food 8KD cases9, energy8@ cases9 and education 8$B9 8multiple choice 6uestion9. In &@ cases the TIs first addressed morethan one theme simultaneously 8not sho0n in ta/le9.

#ctive and non5active TIs differ markedly in relation to the proportion of city;ur/an initiatives 8Ta/le9, the proportion of TIs that received official TN recognition, and, among :official TIs, the num/er ofyears that passed from foundation to official recognition.

verall, less than half of the TIs represent the diversity in their community fairly or very 0ell. The TImem/ers predominantly /elong to the age range '%GD@ years old, 0hich is reflected /y the agerange of the steering group mem/ers. In a/out half the cases the TIs 0ere founded on the /asis of apre5e?isting group 8e.g. other grassroots organisation9 and the group of founders 0as on averagea/out &% people, although a significant variation 0as o/served in this respect.

The data illustrate a predominance of /elo05university degree level of education, /ut the responserate to the 6uestion regarding educational level 0as particularly lo0. In $K of cases no steeringgroup mem/er of the TI had ever attended a transition training course and in &B of cases nomem/er had attended permaculture training or had permaculture kno0ledge. verall, on averagea/out three steering group mem/ers had transition training from TN and t0o had permaculturetraining or kno0ledge, /ut high variation 0ithin groups 0as o/served. The ratio of steering groupmem/ers 0ith transition or permaculture training to the total of steering group mem/ers 0as %.@

and %.'D 8i.e. less than one in t0o and a/out one in three9 respectively.

In summary, the most marked differences /et0een active and non5active TIs, regarding members,0ere o/served in the representation of diversity in the community, the num/er of initial founders,and the num/er of steering group mem/ers 0ith transition training.

Table 4" 0ummary o$ characteristics and member variables *valid 1 sho2n/"

Factor ariale Actie #% Non-actie #% All #%

N 0 N 0 N 0

TI

characteri

stics

Type of transition

initiative

City;ur/an B@ '$.B K @$.K K $A.

Oillage $ K.' & @.K $@ [email protected]

To0n &% %.$ @ $K. &%K $BD.B(orest & %. % %.% & $.D

Rural 'A &.' & @.K 'B &%%.%

Island B '.& & @.K K $'.A

Total $@K &%%.% &A &%%.% $AD &%%.%

Eegal form Hes &D% D.' &$ A@.% &A$ D.K

No BK '@.A $@.% K' '@.&

Total $K &%%.% &D &%%.% $D@ &%%.%

National hu/ Hes D $.' % %.% D $.$

No $D K@.% &A &%%.% $D' K@.'

!o not kno0 A $.A % %.% A $.@

Total $@K &%%.% &A &%%.% $AD &%%.%

Regional hu/ Hes &A.% $'.@ B &A.


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11


N 0 N 0 N 0

No $%& AA.D &$ A%.D $&' AA.$

!o not kno0 & @. & @.K &@ @.

Total $@K &%%.% &A &%%.% $AD &%%.%

fficial recognition Hes 8fficial9 &@' @K.& @ $K. &@B @A.$

No 8)ulling9 &%D %.K &$ A%.D &&B $.B

Total $@K &%%.% &A &%%.% $AD &%%.%

Hears to /ecome

official

)ean %.B' 5 %.DA 5 %.B$ 5

Std dev &.&@ 5 %.B$ 5 &.& 5

)em/ers !iversity Oery good @ $.% & @.K D $.$

(airly good &%B $.$ ' &A.D &&& %.A

Not very good &'& @&.$ &$ A%.D &' @$.

Not good at all &$ .A & @.K &' .B

Total $@D &%%.% &A &%%.% $A' &%%.%

#ge of TI mem/ers

8years9

V '% K '.B & @.K &% '.K

1et0een '% and &% @B.D &% @B.B &@% @B.D

1et0een @% and BD 'D.% $'.@ K% '@.$

D@ &.A $ &&.B D $.'

Total $'K &%%.% &A &%%.% $@D &%%.%

ree?istence group Hes &'% @%.$ && D.A && @&.&

No &%@ %.@ @ $K. &&% 'K.K

!o not kno0 $ K.' & @.K $@ K.&

Total $@K &%%.% &A &%%.% $AD &%%.%

(ounders num/er )ean &%.&& 5 B.A 5 K.A& 5

Std dev &.&' 5 @.B 5 &'.% 5

ccupation of

mem/ers

Unemployed K '.B $ &&.B && .'

Student B '.' $ &&.B &% '.K

In employment $%& B.& && D.A $&$ B$.B

ensioner $& B.B $ &&.B $' K.%

Total $'K &%%.% &A &%%.% $@D &%%.%

#ge of steering

group mem/ers

8years9

V '% years old D $.K & D.A A '.$

1et0een '% and

K

K$ . A D.A KK .D

1et0een @% and

D@

KK A.B D %.% &%@ A.'

D@ &% .B & D.A && @.%

Total $%A &%%.% &@ &%%.% $$$ &%%.%

+ducation of

steering group

mem/ers

No 6ualification @ &'.$ % %.% @ &$.$

Qualification

/elo0 degree

level

&A .A & ''.% &B '.K

!egree level or

a/ove

$ @.' % %.% $ .K

!o not kno0 & 'D.B $ DD.% &D 'K.%

Total 'B &%%.% ' &%%.% & &%%.%

Transition training

8people9

)ean '.%' 5 $.$ 5 $.KB 5

Std dev K.B$ 5 &.'$ 5 K.K 5Transition training )ean %.$ 5 %.AA 5 %.@ 5


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12


N 0 N 0 N 0

ratio Std dev &.@ 5 %.DA 5 &.A 5

ermaculture

training 8people9

)ean $.&B 5 '.%A 5 $.$ 5

Std dev $.%' 5 &.B' 5 $.%$ 5

ermaculture

training ratio

)ean %.'& 5 &.%& 5 %.'D 5

Std dev %.$A 5 %.KA 5 %. 5

.$.$. rganisationTa/le @ sho0s a summary of the varia/les associated 0ith the factors organisationand resources. Thema7ority of TIs had a steering group, although the num/er of steering group mem/ers variedmarkedly 0ithin and /et0een the t0o su/groups of active and non5active TIs. The TIs usually 8Kof cases9 did not rely on paid staff, /ut on voluntary 0ork. KA of TIs did engage in some form ofrecruitment of ne0 mem/ers 8e.g. online or personal contacts, or social events9 8Ta/le #@ in the#ppendi?9. The ma7ority of active TIs engaged in /oth internal and e?ternal communication andused a diverse set of tools 0hich included a 0e/site or /log, social net0ork pages and printed

materials. Non5active TIs, /efore /eing discontinued, had sho0n lo0er levels of engagement ininternal and e?ternal communication than active TIs 8Ta/le #@ in the #ppendi?9.

The ma7ority of TIs claimed no political ideology, /ut in a minority of cases alternative ideologiesthat refer to ecocentric 8e.g. *aia9 or egalitarian 0orldvie0s 8!ouglas and Wilda0sky, &KB'9 0erementioned. Conflicts 0ere, in general, minor and resolved. K TIs had had no significant conflict.Reasons for conflicts 0ere i9 strategy, direction and priorities of the TI 8@@ TIs9, ii9 decision5making,responsi/ilities or internal management 8including time management and leadership9 8'D TIs9, iii9issues in a specific pro7ect 8e.g. ho0 to develop an activity9 8$@ TIs9, iv9 personalities 8K TIs9, and v9communication 0ith other actors 8ho0 to do it and 0hat message to communicate9 8A TIs9. Thevastly predominant strategy for conflict resolution 0as /ased on discussion, mediation andconsensus5/uilding, 0hich either follo0ed a formal or a more spontaneous protocol, /ut in severalcases 8&% TIs9 one or more persons left the group after the conflict 8not sho0n in ta/le9.

.$.'. Resources# certain diversity 0as o/served regarding the proportion of e?ternal funding, 0here/y a/out D%of the TIs had developed forms of fundraising that included one or more of the follo0ing" grantapplications, lotteries, pu/lic or private sponsorship, fundraising events, or the sale of self5producedgoods. The most fre6uent sources of e?ternal funding 0ere local authorities 8K TIs9, donations andsponsorships 8e.g. from foundations, /anks or other private organisations9 8D TIs9, and fundraisingthrough events and sale of self5produced products 8'@ TIs9. There 0as high variation in terms oftime dedicated to TI activities on a 0eekly /asis /y the steering group mem/ers, 0hich on averageamounted to $A hours per group. Regarding infrastructure, the ma7ority of TIs had access to ameeting room or office and to computing facilities 8including printer and video reproductione6uipment9 8not sho0n in ta/le9. TIs that did not have access to e?ternal funds usually funded their

activities through the mem/ers o0n voluntary monetary contri/ution.In summary, the most marked differences o/served /et0een active and non5active TIs 0ith respectto organisationand resources0ere noted in the num/er of steering group mem/ers, organisation ofsu/groups, the proportion of e?ternal funds and the time dedicated /y the steering group mem/ersto the TIs.


16/42


13

Table 3" 0ummary o$ organisation and resource variables *valid 1 sho2n/"


N 0 N 0 N 0

rganisation Steering group Hes $&@ B' &@ BB.$ $'% B'.'

No &A.% $ &&.B D &D.A

Total $@K &%%.% &A &%%.% $AD &%%.%

Num/er of

steering group

mem/ers

)ean K.AA 5 5 K. 5

Std dev &B.B% 5 $.'K 5 &B.$@ 5

aid staff &%% $ %.K % %.% $ %.K

A@ & %.@ % %.% & %.

@% % %.% % %.% % %.%

$@ K .$ % %.% K '.K

% $%' K.% &@ &%%.% $&B K.

!o not kno0 & %.@ % %.% & %.

Total $&D &%%.% &@ &%%.% $'& &%%.%

Su/groups Hes &$ @D.& D '@.' &B @.B

No &&& '.K && D.A &$$ @.$

Total $@' &%%.% &A &%%.% $A% &%%.%

Resources roportion of

e?ternal

funding

&%% '$ &'.D % %.% '$ &$.B

A@ @A $.$ $ &.' @K $'.D

@% $@ &%.D % %.% $@ &%

$@ $D &&.% $ &.' $B &&.$

% K% 'B.& K D.' KK 'K.D

!o not kno0 D $.@ & A.& A $.B

Total $'D &%% & &%% $@% &%%

Time dedicated/y steering group

8hours per 0eek9

)ean $A.K 5 &D.BB 5 $A.'D 5Std dev $'.$B 5 &&.$ 5 $$.K$ 5

#ll mem/ers of the steering group are paid staff 8&%%9, )ost of the mem/ers of the steering group are paidstaff 8a/out A@9, There are an e6ual num/er of paid staff and volunteers in the steering group, Some mem/ersof the steering group are paid staff 8a/out $@9, None of the mem/ers of the steering group are paid staff 8%9. #ll funds 0ere e?ternal 8&%%9, )ost of the funds 0ere e?ternal 8a/out A@9, There 0ere e6ual proportionsof e?ternal and internal funds, Eittle funds 0ere e?ternal 8a/out $@9, No funds 0ere e?ternal 8%9.

.$.. Conte?tTa/le D sho0s a summary of the varia/les associated 0ith the factor contet. The ma7ority of TIs had

esta/lished forms of cooperation or partnership 0ith local authorities, local media, local /usiness,non5governmental organisations 8N*s9 and other grassroots or activist groups, and other TIs.The ma7ority of TIs also considered to /e perceived positively /y several local actors including localauthorities, local /usiness and media, social enterprises, N*s, other TIs and regional or national TNhu/s. Nevertheless, a significant num/er of TIs did not have a clear idea of ho0 favoura/ly the TI 0asperceived 8ans0er" :!o not kno09. 1y and large, active TIs sho0ed higher rates of cooperation andpartnership 0ith other local actors, and a more positive perception of the conte?t 8i.e. ho0favoura/ly different actors 0ere to0ards the TI9.


17/42


14

Table " 0ummary o$ contet variables *valid 1 sho2n/"

ariale Actie #% Non-actie #% All #%

N 0 N 0 N 0

Cooperation 0ith local authorities Hes, currently &D% DD. 5 5 5 5

Hes, in the past 'K &D.$ &% D$.@ K &K.&

No $ &A. @ '&.' A &B.'

!o not kno0 % %.% & D.' & %.

Total $& &%%.% &D &%%.% $@A &%%.%

Cooperation 0ith mass media Hes, currently & @K.B 5 5 5 5

Hes, in the past @$ $&.D &$ A@.% D $.K

No @ &B.A $ &$.@ A &B.'

!o not kno0 % %.% $ &$.@ $ %.B

Total $& &%%.% &D &%%.% $@A &%%.%

Cooperation 0ith local /usiness Hes, currently &BA AA.D 5 5 5 5

Hes, in the past '' &'.A B @%.% & &D.%

No &K A.K D 'A.@ $@ K.A

!o not kno0 $ %.B $ &$.@ &.D

Total $& &%%.% &D &%%.% $@A &%%.%

Cooperation 0ith social enterprises Hes, currently &%B .B 5 5 5 5

Hes, in the past '% &$. D 'A.@ 'D &.%

No BK 'D.K B @%.% KA 'A.A

!o not kno0 & @.B $ &$.@ &D D.$

Total $& &%%.% &D &%%.% $@A &%%.%

Cooperation 0ith N*s Hes, currently &BA AA.D 5 5 5 5

Hes, in the past '' &'.A &% D$.@ ' &D.A

No &K A.K @ '&.' $ K.'

!o not kno0 $ %.B & D.' ' &.$

Total $& &%%.% &D &%%.% $@A &%%.%

Cooperation 0ith other TIs Hes, currently &@ D'.K 5 5 5 5

Hes, in the past @& $&.$ &$ A@.% D' $.@

No ' &.& $@.% 'B &.B

!o not kno0 $ %.B % %.% $ %.B

Total $& &%%.% &D &%%.% $@A &%%.%

Cooperation 0ith regional;national

TNN hu/

Hes, currently &%K @.$ 5 5 5 5

Hes, in the past B &K.K A '.B @@ $&.

No AD '&.@ K @D.' B@ ''.&

!o not kno0 B '.' % %.% B '.&

Total $& &%%.% &D &%%.% $@A &%%.%

Cooperation 0ith educational

institutions

Hes, currently K 'K.% 5 5 5 5

Hes, in the past 'A &@. D 'A.@ ' &D.A

No &%@ '.D B @%.% &&' .%

!o not kno0 @ $.& $ &$.@ A $.A

Total $& &%%.% &D &%%.% $@A &%%.%

(avoura/le conte?t" local

authorities

#gree &D' DA.D D 'A.@ &DK [email protected]

Neither agree

nor disagree

& &A.% D 'A.@ A &B.'

!isagree &D D.D % %.% &D D.$


18/42


15

ariale Actie #% Non-actie #% All #%

N 0 N 0 N 0

!o not kno0 $& B.A $@.% $@ K.A

Total $& &%%.% &D &%%.% $@A &%%.%

(avoura/le conte?t" local /usiness #gree &@B [email protected] B @%.% &DD D.D

Neither agree

nor disagree

@ $$. A '.B D& $'.A

!isagree K '.A % %.% K '.@

!o not kno0 $% B.' & D.' $& B.$

Total $& &%%.% &D &%%.% $@A &%%.%

(avoura/le conte?t" mass media #gree DD $A. ' &B.B DK $D.B

Neither agree

nor disagree

&&$ D.@ K @D.' &$& A.&

!isagree &$ @.% & D.' &' @.&

!o not kno0 @& $&.$ ' &B.B @ $&.%

Total $& &%%.% &D &%%.% $@A &%%.%

(avoura/le conte?t" social

enterprises

#gree &$A @$.A $@.% &'& @&.%

Neither agree

nor disagree

@% $%.A A '.B @A $$.$

!isagree $ %.B & D.' ' &.$

!o not kno0 D$ [email protected] $@.% DD [email protected]

Total $& &%%.% &D &%%.% $@A &%%.%

(avoura/le conte?t" N*s #gree &KB B$.$ K @D.' $%A B%.@

Neither agree

nor disagree

$K &$.% $@.% '' &$.B

!isagree ' &.$ $ &$.@ @ &.K

!o not kno0 && .D & D.' &$ .A

Total $& &%%.% &D &%%.% $@A &%%.%

(avoura/le conte?t" other TIs #gree &K@ B%.K &% D$.@ $%@ AK.B

Neither agree

nor disagree

&K A.K ' &B.B $$ B.D

!isagree & %. $ &$.@ ' &.$

!o not kno0 $D &%.B & D.' $A &%.@

Total $& &%%.% &D &%%.% $@A &%%.%

(avoura/le conte?t"

regional;national TNN hu/

#gree &'' @@.$ B @%.% && @.K

Neither agree

nor disagree

& &A.% @ '&.' D &A.K

!isagree $ %.B % %.% $ %.B

!o not kno0 D@ $A.% ' &B.B DB $D.@

Total $& &%%.% &D &%%.% $@A &%%.%

(avoura/le conte?t" educational

institutions

#gree &%$ $.' D 'A.@ &%B $.%

Neither agree

nor disagree

@A $'.A @ '&.' D$ $.&

!isagree D $.@ % %.% D $.'

!o not kno0 AD '&.@ @ '&.' B& '&.@

Total $& &%%.% &D &%%.% $@A &%%.%

)issing values not sho0n in ta/le.


19/42


16

.'. (actors that contri/uted to the success of transition initiativesWe e?plored the contri/ution of the e?planatory factors to the success of TIs 8section '.$9 /y meansof correlation analysis 8categorical e?planatory factors9 and comparison of means 8numericale?planatory factors9. Ta/le A sho0s the correlation for active TIs /et0een single categoricalindependent varia/les and the dependent varia/le success, 0hich 0as transformed for this purpose

into a /imodal varia/le 8i.e. very or fairly successful, not very or not successful at all9. Thise?ploratory analysis allo0ed a first identification of the varia/les that most significantly influencedthe level of TI success. Ta/le B compares the means for numerical independent varia/les /et0eenthe t0o groups, i.e. of veryor$airly success$uland of not veryor not at all success$ulTIs.

Table 5" Pearson Chi06uare test and Cramer7s 8 measure o$ correlation bet2een eplanatory $actors andsuccess o$ a transition initiative"9

Grou) ariale N 'earsons

Ci-$4uare

Craers

5e**ect si6e7

'

TI characteristics Type of transition initiative $@K .A&$ %.&'@ %.%K@

Eegal form $K B.@A@ %.&BD %.%%'

(irst theme addressed $' &A.BA$ %.$AD %.&D$fficial recognition $@K &$.@K %.$$% %.%%%

Country XX $@K &%.$&$ %.$&$ %.$@%

)em/ers #ge of TI mem/ers $'K '.@' %.&&$ %.'&D

#ge of steering group mem/ers $%A .KD$ %.&@@ %.&A@

+ducation of steering group mem/ers $ B.$K& %.@BB %.%&D

!iversity $@D &.@$B %.$'B %.%%$

re5e?istence group $'@ %.'&$ %.%'D %.@AA

rganisation Steering group $@K B.$'' %.&&A %.%%

Su/groups $@' D.@AB %.&D& %.%&%

aid staff $&@ '.D$A %.&'% %.'%@

Conflict resolution &DD %.@$D %.%@D %.DB

olitical orientation $@D %.%B& %.%&B %.AA@

Recruitment $@K $$.AK' %.$KA %.%%%

We/ $@' &.K'B %.%BB %.&D

Resources roportion of e?ternal funding $'% @.@K %.&@D %.%&B

)eeting room $$@ $.$A' %.&%& %.&'$

ffice $'D &.DDD %.%BD %.&KA

C $'D &.DKA %.%BD %.&K'

rinter $'D %.B&$ %.%D% %.'DA

Oideo reproduction $'D %.ABK %.%@K %.'A

Conte?t articipatory democracy &B$ &.A' %.%K% %.$$@Cooperation 0ith local authorities $& &$.%@ %.$$A %.%%$

Cooperation 0ith mass media $& &&.B%@ %.$$& %.%%'

Cooperation 0ith local /usiness $'K $'.@KB %.'& %.%%%

Cooperation 0ith social enterprises $$A &.$KA %.$@& %.%%&

Cooperation 0ith N*s $'K %.@$A %.%K %.A@'

Cooperation 0ith other TIs $'K &%.A@A %.$&$ %.%%@

Cooperation 0ith regional;national TNN

hu/

$'' @.B&B %.&@B %.%@@

Cooperation 0ith educational

institutions

$'D $.@@$ %.&% %.$AK

(avoura/le conte?t" local authorities $$% &'.A@ %.$@% %.%%B

(avoura/le conte?t" mass media $$& &@.%K$ %.$D& %.%%@


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17

Grou) ariale N 'earsons

Ci-$4uare

Craers

5e**ect si6e7

'

(avoura/le conte?t" local /usiness &K% A.'$ %.&KA %.&&K

(avoura/le conte?t" social enterprises &AK K.K@ %.$'D %.%&K

(avoura/le conte?t" N*s $'% B.D'K %.&K %.%'

(avoura/le conte?t" other TIs $&@ &.KK$ %.$D %.%%$

(avoura/le conte?t" regional;national

TNN hu/

&AD &@.BAK %.'%% %.%%'

(avoura/le conte?t" educational

institutions

&D@ &'.$@ %.$B' %.%&%

Significant at &% level> Significant at @ level> Significant at & level> X 0uccessrecoded as /ivariate toreduce the num/er of cells 0ith e?pected count less than @ and thus improve the statistical po0er of the test>XX Chi5S6uare calculated only considering countries 0ith N @.

Ta/les A and B sho0 that several varia/les significantly correlate 0ith the level of TI success, /ut theestimated effect si2e 0as lo0 for all e?planatory factors, indicating lo0 magnitude of the effects ofthese varia/les on the success of *Is.

Table :" +ann;-hitney . test and estimated e$$ect size $or numeric independent variables by level o$success *bimodal/"

Grou) ariale N "ann-Witne+

( test 8

) e**ect

si6e

TI characteristics Hears to /ecome official &'$ $.%D %.%& %.&B

)em/ers Transition training $% &.BB %.%B% %.&%

Transition training ratio &K' %.$D %.K' %.%$

ermaculture training &KK $.%'D %.%$ %.&

ermaculture training ratio &BB %.@AA %.@%$ %.%

(ounders num/er $A $.$AD %.%$' %.& rganisation Num/er of steering group mem/ers $%' $.D%A %.%%K %.&B

Resources Time dedicated /y steering group &D %.KBB %.'$' %.%B

Significant at &% level> Significant at @ level> Significant at & level.

We tested for correlation among the varia/les associated 0ith the factor contet, i.e. cooperation0ith other actors and$avourable contet. #s e?pected, significant correlations 0ere o/served8earson correlation /et0een %.'%% and %.D@%9" TIs 0ho cooperate 0ith other actors tend toconsider these actors positively, or vice versa 8not sho0n in ta/le9.

1ecause cities are considered to /e more socially diverse than rural;to0ns, 0e also analysed thecorrelation of diversity and success, controlling for the type of TI. In effect, 0e o/served thatdiversity correlates significantly 0ith success for city;ur/an TIs /ut not for other types of TIs,

suggesting that the location 8i.e. city;ur/an versus rural;to0n9 influences directly the degree to0hich a TI represents diversity in its community 0hich, in turn, influences TI success 8not sho0n inta/le9.

(inally, /ecause several TI characteristics are more fre6uent among official TIs, 0e analysed thecorrelation of subgroups, steering committee, legal $orm0ith successcontrolling for o$$icial. TIs thato/tain official recognition /y the TN tend to /e organised in su/groups, have a steering group andconstitute a formal organisation more than mulling TIs. We o/served that /eing e6ual o$$icial,steering committeesignificantly correlates 0ith successfor official /ut not for mulling TIs, 0hereassubgroupsand legal $ormsignificantly correlate 0ith successfor mulling /ut not for official TIs,confirming that the :official status influences directly other key varia/les 8TI characteristics9, e.g.subgroups, steering committee, legal $orm, 0hich, in turn influence TI success8not sho0n in ta/le9.


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18

.. # typology of Transition InitiativesTo account for the influence of multiple varia/les and 0ith the aim to identify common patterns ofTI success and failure, in the last stage of our analysis 0e /uilt clusters /ased on the varia/les thathad resulted in /eing significantly correlated 0ith success 8su/7ective, /imodal9 8Ta/les A and B9.(ollo0ing a t0o5step cluster procedure 0e identified three clusters of active TIs, in addition to

0hich 0e analysed non5active TIs as a pre5identified cluster. Ta/le K sho0s a summary of thedescriptive statistics for dependent and independent varia/les for the four clusters. These clusterscorrespond to four TI types each of 0hich is characterised /y a level of success and a particularcom/ination of factors.

Cluster 1. Cluster & groups TIs that tended to /e very or fairly successful, and to /e located invillages, rural areas or to0ns. In comparison 0ith TIs in other clusters, these TIs 0ere mostly initiated/y a larger group of founders. They had e?isted on average for a/out four years. While these TIs 0erenot necessarily officially recognised /y the TN, those that 0ere officially recognised took one year onaverage from the foundation year to recognition and follo0ed appro?imately &% :steps totransition. They tended to have a steering group 0ith mem/ers trained in Transition and;orpermaculture, and to /e organised in, for e?ample, thematic or pro7ect5/ased su/groups. Thesteering group tended to /e larger and to invest a higher num/er of hours than TIs in other clusters.

TIs in this cluster tended to get at least part of their funds from e?ternal sources and 0ere very 0ellconnected to other actors in the local conte?t, 0hich 0ere generally perceived as favoura/leto0ards the TIs.

Cluster 2. Cluster $ groups TIs that 0ere mostly fairly successful. They tended to /e officiallyrecognised /y the TN and to have taken almost one year to /e recognised since their foundationand follo0ed appro?imately B.@ :steps to transition. They had e?isted on average for four years, and0ere founded /y relatively fe0 people originally, /ut 0ere characterised, in comparison 0ith TIs inother clusters, /y a large steering group of trained mem/ers. They 0ere not necessarily organised insu/groups and usually not constituted in a legal form. They tended to rely on some proportion ofe?ternal funds and to /e located in a favoura/le conte?t 8local authorities, mass media, other N*s,other TIs, TN regional or national hu/s9, although this did not necessarily translate into cooperation0ith other local actors. Cluster $ TIs tended to cooperate 0ith local authorities and other TIs, /ut

less 0ith other actors. They 0ere more fre6uently located in the United -ingdom than TIs in otherclusters.

Cluster 3. Cluster ' groups TIs that tended to /e not very successful or not at all successful. These TIstended not to /e constituted in a legal form and to /e mulling rather than officially recognised.When they 0ere officially recognised /y the TN, they tended to have reached recognition rather6uickly 8i.e. in a fe0 months9. They 0ere relatively young 8less than three years9 and have on averageundertaken si? to seven :steps to transition. These TIs tended not to mirror the diversity of theircommunity very 0ell. If they had a steering group, this tended to /e a small group of people of0hich only fe0 had attended transition or permaculture training. They usually could not rely one?ternal funds and 0ere 0eakly connected 0ith other actors in their local conte?t, 0hich overall0as perceived to disadvantage the TIs. In particular, these TIs tended to /e more disconnected thanthose in other clusters from regional or national TN hu/s and to have a poorer kno0ledge of their

o0n conte?t. (inally, they tended to /e less concentrated in the United -ingdom than TIs in otherclusters.

Cluster 9. These non5active TIs, /efore /eing discontinued, shared several characteristics 0ithCluster ' TIs. In particular, they achieved similar levels of success, tended to /e mulling and notconstituted in legal form, to /e relatively young 8'.D years9 have undertaken si? :steps to transition,and to represent the diversity of their community poorly, also /eing more fre6uently located in anur/an conte?t. They also tended to /e disconnected from the TN regional and national hu/s, /ut,differently from Cluster ' TIs, they had sho0n some level of cooperation 0ith other actors in theirlocal conte?t 8local authorities, mass media and other TIs9. Non5active TIs 0ere usually guided /ytrained steering group mem/ers, /ut the steering groups tended to /e small and to have little timeto dedicate to the TI.


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Walker Institute Research Note " (ailure and Success of Transition Initiatives" a study of the international replication of the Transition )ovement

Table


23/42


ariale :rou) ariale Cluster 1 Cluster 2

N 0 N 0

(ounders num/er 8people9 )ean &$.'K 5 A.K 5

Std dev &A.&K 5 @.@A 5

rganisation Steering group Hes D@ K$.K A$ BD.A

No @ A.& && &'.'

Num/er of steering group mem/ers

8people9

)ean &'.%@ 5 B.%' 5

Std dev '%.B$ 5 @.$@ 5

Su/groups Hes @' [email protected] A @D.D

No &A $.' 'D '.

Recruitment Hes DB KA.& B$ KB.B

No $ $.K & &.$

Resources roportion of e?ternal funding No e?ternal funding &@ $&. $A '$.@

$@ to &%% e?ternal funding @@ AB.D @D DA.@ Time dedicated /y steering group 8hours per

0eek9

)ean '.'A 5 $.D 5

Standard deviation $K.&B 5 &D.% 5

Conte?t Cooperation 0ith local authorities Hes, currently DK KB.D @@ DD.'

Hes, in the past % %.% $$ $D.@

No & &. D A.$

Cooperation 0ith mass media Hes, currently D' K%.% ' @&.B

Hes, in the past D B.D $K '.K

No & &. && &'.'

Cooperation 0ith local /usiness Hes, currently @@ AB.D ' &.%

Hes, in the past B &&. $$ $D.@

No A &%.% $A '$.@

Cooperation 0ith social enterprises Hes, currently @% A&. '' 'K.B

Hes, in the past D B.D $% $.&

No &% &.' '% 'D.&


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N 0 N 0

Cooperation 0ith other TIs Hes, currently D$ BB.D @B DK.K

Hes, in the past B &&. $% $.&

No % %.% @ D.%

Cooperation 0ith regional;national TNN hu/ Hes, currently ' D&. 'K A.%

Hes, in the past &D $$.K &A $%.@

No K &$.K $@ '%.&

(avoura/le conte?t" local authorities #gree D& BA.& D% A$.'

Neither agree nor disagree @ A.& &B $&.A

!isagree & &. .B

(avoura/le conte?t" mass media #gree @B B$.K @D DA.@

Neither agree nor disagree K &$.K $& $@.'

!isagree & &. @ D.%

(avoura/le conte?t" social enterprises #gree @@ AB.B ' @&.B

Neither agree nor disagree & &. $B ''.A

!isagree % %.% $ $.

(avoura/le conte?t" N*s #gree D' K%.% D AA.&

Neither agree nor disagree ' .' & &D.K

!isagree % %.% $ $.

(avoura/le conte?t" other TIs #gree D@ K$.K A@ K%.

Neither agree nor disagree & @.A D A.$

!isagree % %.% $ $.

(avoura/le conte?t" regional;national TNN

hu/

#gree A DA.& K @K.%

Neither agree nor disagree &&. $' $A.A !isagree % %.% & &.$

(avoura/le conte?t" educational institutions #gree % @A.& 'B @.B

Neither agree nor disagree B &&. $K '.K

!isagree % %.% .B


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N 0 N 0

Control Country #rgentina % %.% % %.%

#ustralia @ A.& D A.$

#ustria % %.% % %.%

1elgium % %.% $ $.

1ra2il $ $.K % %.%

Canada D B.D ' '.D

Chile & &. % %.%

!enmark % %.% & &.$

(rance ' .' ' '.D

*ermany $ $.K ' '.D

Ireland & &. & &.$

Italy & &. ' '.D

Eatvia % %.% % %.%

Netherlands % %.% $ $.

Ne0 ealand & &. & &.$

Nor0ay $ $.K % %.%

South #frica % %.% % %.%

Spain & &. & &.$

S0eden % %.% & &.$

S0it2erland % %.% % %.%

United -ingdom '% $.K ' @&.B

United States of #merica &$ &A.& &' &@.A

!uration 8years9 )ean .&D 5 '.KB 5

Std dev &.KK 5 &.@ 5

Steps )ean K.BA 5 B.@& 5

Std dev &.D& 5 $.$A 5

P!o not kno0P and )issing values not considered" percents do not add up to &%%.


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23

@. !iscussionThe analysis of the replication of TIs sheds light on the conditions of success and failure of *Is indifferent local conte?ts. In this section, 0e summarise this studys main results and discuss itsrelevance for research on the conditions for *I success as a form of response to environmentalchange in consideration of three under5e?plored areas of the literature.

@.&. Success and failure of grassroots innovationsThe ma7ority of the TIs considered themselves at least fairly successful 8Ta/le $9. The literature on*Is suggests that there are many 0ays of defining the success or failure of *Is 8e.g. 3o0aldt andSch0ar2, $%&%> -ir0an et al., $%&'> rnet2elder and Rohracher, $%&'9, 0hich is related to thedifferent motivations of *Is 8Seyfang and Eonghurst, $%&'9. Thus, it is generally agreed that thesuccess of *Is can /e identified 8i9 through their social links to mem/ers of local communities,/uilding capacity and empo0ering social actors 8e.g. )iddlemiss and arrish, $%&%9, as 0ell as 8ii9through their e?ternal impact or contri/ution to improved environmental performance 81arthelmieet al., $%%B9, or different tra7ectories of systemic socio5technical innovation 8e.g. *eels and Schot,

$%%A9.

ur results confirm the coe?istence of these t0o /road sets of criteria. The respondents defined thesuccess of their TI /y referring /oth to the social function 8e?emplified /y the values of conviviality,:fun, or sense of community9 and e?ternal impact, 0ith a critical mass of mem/ers /eing acharacteristic that cross5cuts the t0o dimensions 8Ta/le # in the #ppendi?9. !emocraticorganisational principles also 0ere considered to /e key characteristics of successful TIs, 0hichconfirms 0hat has /een suggested /y other studies 8e.g. Seyfang and Smith, $%%A> -ir0an et al.,$%&'> rnet2elder and Rohracher, $%&'9. These results 0ere consistent 0ith the o/7ective measureof success, 0here/y su/7ectively successful TIs also tended to /e more mature 8i.e. have lastedlonger9, to involve more mem/ers, and to undertake more :steps to transition. Though the latteronly should /e taken as a pro?y for the level of TI development, considering that these stepsrepresent general guidelines and principles 81rang0yn and 3opkins, $%%B9 that are locally adapted

8ickerill and )a?ey, $%%K9, and they should /e taken as a means, rather than a goal, of transition. Inaddition, some of the steps to transition have a cyclical nature rather than /eing one5off targets.Nevertheless, together 0ith the other o/7ective indicators, the steps to transition may provide anindication of the underpinning dynamics of capacity /uilding, social links to local communities, andnarrative and identity development that have /een suggested to /e key factors in the success of *Is8)iddlemiss and arrish, $%&%> Connors and )c!onald, $%&&> (eola, $%&$9.

The results also suggest that less successful TIs might underestimate conte?tual factors and materialresources, 0hich this study sho0s are significant in the success of TIs 8Ta/les A and B9. TIs mighthave a lo0 a0areness of conte?tual conditions of success or failure, and instead, tend to considerthe factors they can control as the most important, among 0hich are the recruitment, self5organisation and motivation of mem/ers. The little importance given to material resources might/e e?plained /y the high reliance of most of TIs on the contri/ution of volunteers 8Ta/le 9, 0hichho0ever is often a /arrier to success 8Smith, $%&&9. Such a mismatch in the consideration given toconditions of success or failure might /e due to a tendency to look in0ardly. This may /e a result ofthe necessity to /uild up innovative niches, especially in the early stages of TI development 0herethe ma7ority of respondents identify their initiatives. Thus, a corollary of this finding 0ould suggestthe criteria used for assessing success, /oth su/7ectively and o/7ectively, might change during thedevelopment of a *I, and conse6uently also the evaluation of those criteria. This is a hypothesis0orth testing in future research.

@.$ (actors of success and failure of grassroots innovationsur results confirmed many of the hypotheses, al/eit mostly dra0n from single in5depth casestudies present in the literature, that guided this study 8Ta/le &9. We identified types of TIs that

0ere /ased on typical configurations of conditions for success and failure into four clusters 8Ta/leK9, 0hich occur in different conte?ts. These ideal types do not represent formulae for more, or less


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24

success. Rather, the comple? nature of socio5technical systems and the high diversity of *Is makesuccess or failure unpredicta/le 81ergman et al. , $%&%9. We did not unravel the variedinterrelationships among factors of *Is success or failure, 0hich generate these patterns of localconfigurations, although 0e do argue that the identified ideal types represent a useful step for0ardin the understanding of local settings and structural conditions 8rnet2elder and Rohracher, $%&'9that may facilitate or hinder the diffusion of *Is.

(ollo0ing 1ro0n et al. 8$%&$9, 0e discuss here these ideal5types in relation to the three under5e?plored areas of interrelated literature referred to earlier in this paper" i9 the combinationofdifferent forms of transition G lifecourse, environmental and political5economic G 0hich assumes aconsolidation and standardisation of learning processes that may drive the gro0th anddevelopment or replication of *Is 8Seyfang and Eonghurst, $%&'9> ii9 the compulsionto act through aform of affective governance that in seeking to em/ed an alternative to conventional processes,results in a trade5off /et0een successful diffusion and innovation control 8*eels and Schot, $%%A>rnet2elder and Rohracher, $%&'9> and lastly iii9 the emplacementor spatial conte?ts of socio5technical transitions 8Coenen et al., $%&$> !evine5Wright, $%&'9.

(irst, our results do suggest that TIs gro0th and development is linked to the combinationof localGglo/al 8trans5local9 learning processes 8e.g. e?ternally resourced transition training;permaculture

training9. This 0ould confirm that TIs may /e interdependent 0ith glo/al action net0orks 0hilstretaining a strong promotion of the :local 8)ayer and -no?, $%&%> North, $%&%> Wilson, $%&$9. #lso,cooperation 0ith other TIs in the TN net0ork and other actors such as local authorities and/usinesses is essential to TI success. Het despite most TIs ackno0ledging a favoura/le conte?t forsuch cooperation, least successful TIs have not engaged 0ith other actors.

In addition, several guidelines of transition, promoted /y the TN to the TI level, mark the difference/et0een clusters of highly or less successful TIs 8Ta/le K9. In particular, TN recognition of TIs and theorganisation into su/groups are related to TI success. They interact 0ith other important factorssuch as the level of human resources 8i.e. si2e of the steering group for those TIs that have one9,time and money 8e?ternal funds9, 0hich confirms earlier evidence presented /y )iddlemiss andarrish 8$%&%9.

ur results also suggest that there may /e an incu/ation period for success of appro?imately fouryears 8Ta/le K9. )oreover, a longer period /efore /ecoming :official is associated 0ith high levels ofsuccess 8Ta/le K9, 0hich reinforces the hypothesis of an incu/ation period during 0hich the TI isconsolidated and /uilds the /asis for future success. 3o0ever, future longitudinal studies 0ill /ere6uired to test this hypothesis. These results suggest that there may /e a point 0hen transition5related learning processes, evident in TI gro0th and development may peak or plateau due to alimited supply of volunteer support. #lternatively, these results may /e an indicator of :creativedestruction or learning processes 0here old kno0ledge and 0ays of learning are discarded infavour of ne0 approaches or recom/ined 0ith ne0 ideas or processes. Therefore, *I success may /econsistent 0ith learning cycles of intermittent periods of coherence as 0ell as fragmentation andvariety, considering TI success is conditional upon resources and mem/ership activity, 0here/ypeer5to5peer kno0ledge dissemination complements a process of dis;aggregation, re;consolidationand de;standardisation 8Seyfang and Eonghurst, $%&'9. # similar cyclical development has /een

identified in social innovation /y Westley et al. 8$%%D9 and 1iggs et al. 8$%&%9. verall, this 0ouldsuggest that TI success remains largely determined /y situated processes despite itsinterdependence 0ith glo/al action net0orks.

Second, 0e find that the conte?t of TI success or failure can /e linked to a compulsionto act. !espitethe lesser role of steering groups, as 0ell as the legal status or TN recognition of TI success, theformal structure of the TN seems to play a significant role in at least t0o 0ays. (irstly, it generatesthe grand narrative of transition 8(eola, $%&$9 and delivers the training that e6uips local groups 0iththe skills needed to cope 0ith and manage the transition process. The training is often /ased onmature successful e?periences and therefore it also has a function of kno0ledge sharing thatsupports learning and niche /uilding 8Seyfang and Eonghurst, $%&'9. Secondly, the TN providesgeneral principles and organisational guidelines such as the &$ :steps to transition 81rang0yn and3opkins, $%%B> Connors and )c!onald, $%&%9, several of 0hich, including those related to internal

organisation and colla/oration 0ith other actors, 0e found to /e associated 0ith a high degree of TIsuccess 8Ta/les A, B and K9. Thus, in contrast to 0hat !evine5Wright and Wiersma 8$%&'9 suggest,

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Failure and Success in Transition Inititatives