Faizullah_abbasi the Mystery of Unaccounted for Gas

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THE MYSTERY OFUNACCOUNTED FOR GAS

…. The Mystery of

Unaccounted

for Gas

Presented by

Dr. Faizullah Abbasi, MD, SSGC

Pakistan Energy Conference

April 12, 2011-Islamabad



Would

you hirethis man

as yourdetective ifit is the …



Sui Southern Gas Company Limited 3

Quetta

Sibi

Pirkoh

Loti

Sui

Jacobabad

Shikarpur

Larkana

DaduZamzama

Sari Hyderabad

Nawabshah

SawanKadanwari

Miano

Badin

Karachi

Bhit

Hasan

Sukkur

FJFC

Pesh Bogi

Mazarani

Zarghun

Sindh

Balochistan

SSGC INFRASTRUCTURE

SSGCINFRASTRUCTURE

TransmissionNetwork (Km)

3,320

DistributionNetwork (Km)

36,785SNGPL transmission line

Customers

Industrial 3,863

Commercial 24,156

Domestic 2,219,138



POD

POD

POD

POD

SMS

SMS

SMS

TBS

TBS

TBS IndustrialCMSs

DomesticMeters

CommercialMeters

Distribution Supply MainsTransmission pipelines Distribution Network

CUSTOMERS

4

GAS FLOW CHART



Inspector Clouseau

will not solve themystery of UFG till

he gets into the

heart of the matter.

Will the Case get complex and

intricate? Let’s find out….





TOTAL GASSALE

UFG

TOTAL GASPURCHASE

7

WHAT IS UNACCOUNTED FOR GAS OR UFG?



INDUSTRIAL

SALE(3,863 Customers)

COMMERCIALSALE

(24,156 Customers)

DOMESTICSALE

(2,219,138 Customers)

UFG

+

+

GAS PURCHASEDFROM 16 GAS

FIELDS

8

HOW IS UFG CALCULATED?



DISTRIBUTION

SYSTEM45 MMCF

UFG

5 MMCFi.e. 5%

GASPURCHASE100 MMCF

9

BULK/POWER

50 MMCF

UFG – THE ARITHMETIC TRICK - 1



DISTRIBUTIONSYSTEM

45 MMCF

UFG5 MMCFi.e. 10%

GASPURCHASE50 MMCF

10

BULK/POWER 0 MMCF

UFG – THE ARITHMETIC TRICK - 2



SSGC - YEAR WISE % BULK SALE TREND

11

%AGE



UFG IN GAS SALES MIX - POWER

12

(26.15%)

(13.19%)

(5.5%)

(18.30%)

(16.82%)

(2.31%)

(7.95%)

(9.6 %)



BULK POWER

129,812

BULK OTHER

42,405

DOMESTIC

73,844CNG

24,473

CAPTIVE POWER

57,915

COMMERCIAL

10,178

G.INDUSTRIES

80,351

UFG

20,000

15BCF Gas May Produce

UFG IN GAS SALES MIX – BULK POWER

13

(29.57%)

(13.19%)

(5.5%)

(18.30%)

(16.82%)

(2.31%)

(4.5%)

(9.6 %)

1,250,000 MW Power



14

A Quick Math Calculation

SSGC: Annual UFG = 35,010 MMCF

(7.95%)

SSGC: Per day UFG = 96 MMCFD

Avg. Cost/MMCF = Rs 221,690

Financial Cost of Lost Gas (UFG)

35,010 (MMCF) x Rs 221,690 (Gas price)

= Rs 7,761 million

( All figures for FY-2009-10)

FIRST CLUE: FINANCIAL IMPACT OF UFG



Reduced Gas Availability

for Power Sector.

Penalty by Regulator

(Rs. 934 Million in 2009-10)

Environmental Pollution

Equivalent to 9.135 million

Tonnes of CO2. (13% of the

total emissions of Pakistan).15

CONSEQUENCES OF HIGH UFG – PLOT THICKENS



GENERAL PERCEPTION ABOUT UFG

ALL UFG IS THEFT

ALL THEFT IS UFG

BUT ALL UFG IS NOT

THEFT !



Efforts focused on controlling gas theft.

Established theft control department.

Installed Cyber locks & EVCs.

Dedicated lines for bulk & CNG

customers.

Theft by non-customers.

ONGOING EFFORTS TO CONTROL GAS THEFT



These

ongoing

exerciseshave

uncovered

some theft

cases .…

Yet the

UFG has

increased!



18,871

19,28320,822

24,264

27,390

25,584

29,082

27,093

33,501

35,010

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10

UFG VOLUME (MMCF)

UFG IN SSGC – THE LAST TEN YEARS



UFG

TRACKING DOWN SUSPECTS: UFG CLASSIFICATION

NON TECHNICAL

(THEFT)

COMPLEX/UNCONTROLLABLE

TECHNICAL(OTHER FACTORS)

CONTROLLABLE



30th September 1988 Hyderabad Incident

Normal daily gas purchase of Hyderabad = 30 MMCFD.

Normal daily sale of Industrial & Commercial Customers

= 8 MMCFD.

During curfew all industrial & commercial units were closed.

Logically, Purchase should have been 30-8=22 MMCFD.

IT DID NOT HAPPEN

But actual Purchase on following days was 29 MMCFD-----------------

--------------------------------WHY?

INCIDENTS LEADING TOWARDS OTHER CAUSES OF UFG



To dig deeper,

InspectorClouseau

heads off to

Hazara Colony,

Hyderabad….



23

CHARACTERISTICS OF HAZARA COLONY

MANAGEABLE AREA

TOTAL LENGTH OF THELOOP = 3 Kms.

TOTAL NUMBER OFCUSTOMERS = 298.

HAZARA

COLONY

LINE DIAGRAM OFTHE AREA OF STUDY

PRS

HALI

ROAD

ZEAL PAK

TM KHAN

ROADFatah

Chowk

TBS Site

50 Psig



24

PRESSURE REGULATING STATION (PRS) AND THE BULK METER FEEDING HAZARA COLONY HYDERABAD



UFG AT DIFFERENT PRESSURES

UFG AT

4-5 psig

Purchase/Day 42.17 MCF

Sale/Day 20.38 MCF

UFG/Day21.79 MCF(51.67%)

UFG AT10-11 psig

56.5 MCF

20.38 MCF

36.12 MCF(63.93%)

UFG AT

21-23 psig

223.2 MCF

20.38 MCF

202.82 MCF(90.87%)

HAZARA COLONY HYDERABAD



IMPACT OF OVERHEAD LEAKAGE RECTIFICATION AT 4-5 psig

Before OHrectification

After OH

Rectification

Purchase/

Day 42.17 Mcf 40.72 Mcf Sales/

Day20.38 Mcf 20.38 Mcf

UFG/

Day21.79 Mcf 20.34 Mcf

UFG % 51.67% 49.95%

ACT O T C A G



AT 4-5 psig

Beforeinstallation

of new

meters

Afterinstallation

of new

metersPurchase/Day

40.72 Mcf 39.19 Mcf

Sale/Day 20.38 Mcf 27.65 Mcf

UFG/Day 20.34 Mcf 11.54 Mcf

UFG% 49.95% 29.45%

IMPACT OF METER CHANGE



28

FACTOR-WISE UFG VOLUMEMCF PER

DAY% OF UFG

OVER HEAD LEAKAGES 1.45 6.66

PUG METERS 1.37 6.29

METERS SLOW DUE TO DUST 0.43 1.97

METERS SLOW DUE TO

OPERATIONAL EFFECT

2.51 11.52

BILLING DIFFERENCES 0.14 0.64

THEFT (METERS TAMPERED) 4.35 19.96

LEAKAGES 11.54 52.96

TOTAL 21.79 100.0

PURCHASE VOLUME 42.17 MCF/DAYSALE VOLUME 20.38 MCF/DAYTOTAL UFG VOLUME 21.79 MCF/DAY

UFG CONTRIBUTING FACTORS

AT 4-5 psig

INTERIOR SINDH



Rehabilitationalongwith

Augmentation & Pressure Profiling

Introductionof Pressure

Profiling

INTERIOR SINDH

UFG STATUS (1982-83 to 2009-10)

29

Increasing TrendDespite Pressure

ProfilingWithout

Augmentation

KARACHI



Introduction

of PressureProfilingWithoutPressureProfiling

KARACHI

UFG STATUS (1989-90 to 2009-10)

30

Introduction of CNG Stations

WithoutAugmentationand desired

Rehabilitation



LESSONS FROM NATIONAL GRID, UK

& LONE STAR GAS, USA



32

Distribution system operates in inches of water column.

Estimated Losses due to Leakages 6.3 Bcf / Annum.

Introduced Pressure Profiling in 1990.

Installed 3,500 automatic pressure profiling systems.

Additional 2,000 are in process.

*Presented by Mr. Jonathan Dennett & Steven Vallender in 2009 IGU

Conference Argentina in 2009

CLUE 2 – LONE STAR COMPANY, USA

LO

* Reducing the pressure from 10 psig to 5 psig lowersthe gas leakage by 29.3%.

*Presented by Mr. Darryl Gallagher

CLUE 1 – NATIONAL GRID, UK



33

PRESSURE

PROFILINGSYSTEM

AUGUMENTATION

SHORT TERM MAGIC TOOLS TO REDUCE UFG

PRESSURE PROFILING



34

Rate of gas leakage is reduced by reducing operatingpressure.

Pressures are reduced during off-peak Period (Night)and normalized during day (Cooking Load Period).

PRESSURE PROFILING

PIPELINE AUGMENTATION



PIPELINE AUGMENTATION

35

Augmentation involves lowering operating pressures

and increasing network capacity.

Distribution Network becomes undersized with

increase in load with time.

Network Pressures are kept high to ensure gas

availability to Customers.

Undersize Network is rectified by replacement of small dia pipelines with large dia pipelines or by

laying additional lines of large dia.

COMPLICATING THE CASE

–



36

Underground leaks (Ageing of

Distribution Network) &

Overhead leaks.

Reduction in uninfected sales(Bulk) and increase in infectedsales (Retail)

Measurement and Billing Errors

Third Party Damages.

Pipeline ruptures due to blast /sabotage.

COMPLICATING THE CASE

OTHER FACTORS BEHIND UFG



37

MONITORING UFG

Segmentation of DistributionNetwork in Small Zones.

Analysis of Gas Sale,

Purchase and UFG.

GETTING INTO THE HEART OF THE CASE

NOVEL TECHNIQUES TO MONITOR UFG



NOVEL TECHNIQUES TO MONITOR UFG

38

Let’s check the

trends through

DIFFERENTIAL

ANALYSIS

Differential Analysis (Decrease in UFG)



Differential Analysis (Decrease in UFG)

MMCF

Differential Analysis (Increase in UFG)



Differential Analysis (Increase in UFG)

MMCF

UFG MONITORING TOOL



(DIFFERENTIAL ANALYSIS) MMCF

41

Region wise UFG Differential Analysis of Interior Sindh



g yJul-Sep 2010 (1st Qtr) V/s Jul-Sep 2009 (1st Qtr)

MMCF

LONG TERM MEASURES TO CONTROL UFG



43

Pipeline

Rehabilitation

ImproveMeasurement

Accuracy

LONG TERM MEASURES TO CONTROL UFG

UFG REDUCTION: WORLD BANK FUNDING – 2011-15



COMPONENT WISE PHYSICAL TARGET

Items Unit Total

REHABILITATION OF DISTRIBUTION SYSTEM Km 5750

AUTOMATIC PRESSURE MANAGEMENT Nos. 400

UNDERGROUND LEAK SURVEY AND

RECTIFICATIONKm 18700

OVERHEAD LEAKAGE SURVEY AND

RECTIFICATION

No. of customer

connections 2,770,300

AUGMENTATION Km 713

METERS Nos. 13,062

METER TESTING EQUIPMENT Nos. 24

SURVEILLANCE AND DATA MONITORING

EQUIPMENT Nos. 2500

PIPE RECOATING Km 450

CP EQUIPMENT Nos. 5902

SEGMENTATION & PRESSURE MANAGEMENT

EQUIPMENTNos. 400

44

UFG – THROUGH THE LENS



45

45

UFG THROUGH THE LENS



The Mystery of UFG has been SOLVED to a great

extent. Yet this trail to clamp down on UFG cases

have uncovered COMPLEX issues such as thenagging incidence of gas theft that needs further

identification…



COMING

SOON

Clouseau’s

next case:Tackling

Gas theft



48

QUESTION

TIME




FACTOR-WISE UFG VOLUMEMCF PER

DAY

% OF

UFG

OVER HEAD LEAKAGES 1.45 6.66

PUG METERS 1.37 6.29

METERS SLOW DUE TO DUST 0.43 1.97

METERS SLOW DUE TO

OPERATIONAL EFFECT2.51 11.52

BILLING DIFFERENCES 0.14 0.64

THEFT (METERS TAMPERED) 4.35 19.96

LEAKAGES 11.54 52.96

TOTAL 21.79 100.0


AT 4-5 psig

MCF PER

DAY

% OFUFG

1.45 4.01

1.37 3.80

0.43 1.19

2.51 6.95

0.14 0.39

4.35 12.04

25.87 71.62

36.12 100.0

Purchase Volume

Sale Volume

Total UFG Volume

42.17 MCF/DAY

20.38 MCF/DAY

21.79 MCF/DAY

AT 10-11 psig AT 21-23 psig

56.50 MCF/DAY

20.38 MCF/DAY

36.12 MCF/DAY

223.2 MCF/DAY

20.38 MCF/DAY

202.82 MCF/DAY

MCF PER

DAY

% OFUFG

1.45 0.71

1.37 0.68

0.43 0.21

2.51 1.24

0.14 0.07

4.35 2.14

192.57 94.95

202.82 100.0

UFG MONITORING TOOL



(DIFFERENTIAL ANALYSIS)

Zone Wise Hyderabad Region (July-February)

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Faizullah_abbasi the Mystery of Unaccounted for Gas