FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment

FAO/WFP Crop and Food FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security AssessmentSecurity Assessment

Republic of MoldovaRepublic of MoldovaAugust 2007August 2007

FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007FAO/WFP CFSAM - August 2007

Average monthly air Average monthly air temperaturetemperature ( (°C°C) ) in in 1946 1946 and and

20072007Source: Source: State Hydrometeorological ServiceState Hydrometeorological Service

Chisinau

-10,0-5,00,05,0

10,015,020,025,030,0

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII

1946 2007


Precipitation quantityPrecipitation quantity (mm) (mm) inin 1946 1946 and and 20072007Source: Source: State Hydrometeorological ServiceState Hydrometeorological Service

Chisinau

020406080

100120140

I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII

1946 2007


NDVI - June 2nd Dekad – Romania

Source: GIEWS Workstation


NDVI – June 2NDVI – June 2ndnd Dekad, Ukraine Dekad, UkraineSource: GIEWS Workstation


NDVI - June 2NDVI - June 2ndnd Dekad, Moldova Dekad, MoldovaSource: GIEWS Workstation


Growing ConditionsGrowing Conditions Sept ’06 – July 07 rainfall 50-75% of Sept ’06 – July 07 rainfall 50-75% of

normal overallnormal overall In some southern and central areas, only In some southern and central areas, only

25% of normal rainfall25% of normal rainfall Peak temperatures 3-4 degrees> normalPeak temperatures 3-4 degrees> normal Soil moisture 1/3 of normalSoil moisture 1/3 of normal Comes after the 2003 drought, and dry Comes after the 2003 drought, and dry

weather in the south during 2005/06weather in the south during 2005/06


Impact on Agricultural ProductionImpact on Agricultural Production

Total area 2006 Total production 2006

Total Area 2007

Estimated production

2007

2007 as % of 2006

Crop (000) ha (000) tons (000) ha (000) tons

Winter wheat 290.2 968 305 431.2 44.5

Winter barley 39.4 73.4 54 71.03 96.8

Spring barley 69.3 126.7 72.3 63.6 50.2

Peas 17.8 33.8 17.5 12.1 35.8

Corn 459.3 1322.2 481.3 364.6 27.6

Sunflower 287.4 379.9 231.6 108.5 28.6

Sugarbeet 42.4 1173 34.6 566 48.3

Soya 55.7 79.8 50.5 37.2 46.6

Tobacco 3.5 4.9 3.1 1.6 32.7


Impact on Agriculture – LivestockImpact on Agriculture – Livestock(lack of pasture, feed, low incomes)(lack of pasture, feed, low incomes)

Opportunity cost of lost production, at Opportunity cost of lost production, at market prices, nearly 300 mln euros for market prices, nearly 300 mln euros for cereal crops onlycereal crops only

De-stocking of 1/3 to ½ of household cattle De-stocking of 1/3 to ½ of household cattle holdings depending on areaholdings depending on area

Loss to the livestock sector, esp cattle: NPV Loss to the livestock sector, esp cattle: NPV value of flow of benefits (milk, offspring, value of flow of benefits (milk, offspring, growing out weight) likely larger than for growing out weight) likely larger than for cropscrops


Impact on Rural HouseholdsImpact on Rural Households Lower or no returns to landLower or no returns to land Much less food from home garden productionMuch less food from home garden production Loss of savings, food and income from Loss of savings, food and income from

liquidated family livestockliquidated family livestock Increased food expenditures, at higher Increased food expenditures, at higher

nominal pricesnominal prices Higher prices for other basic requirements Higher prices for other basic requirements

(energy, gas, heating, etc.)(energy, gas, heating, etc.) Reduction in foreign market share and Reduction in foreign market share and

income for wine and spiritsincome for wine and spirits


Trade and Food Balance PositionTrade and Food Balance Position

Percent coverage of imports by Percent coverage of imports by exports: from 56.3% in 2003 to 39% in exports: from 56.3% in 2003 to 39% in 20062006

Deficit can be made up from Deficit can be made up from commercial importscommercial imports

Main problem: access by poor Main problem: access by poor households with less of their own households with less of their own production (land, home gardens, production (land, home gardens, livestock), facing either priceslivestock), facing either prices


Financial losses/IndebtednessFinancial losses/Indebtedness

Financial sector: highly capitalized, lends little Financial sector: highly capitalized, lends little to the ag sector, can finance the next seasonto the ag sector, can finance the next season

Very small farms: borrow very littleVery small farms: borrow very little Small associations NFFM, own funds, relatives,Small associations NFFM, own funds, relatives, Larger associations, LLCs will have to Larger associations, LLCs will have to

reimburse partially and reschedule debt to reimburse partially and reschedule debt to banks, S&Ls, Input suppliersbanks, S&Ls, Input suppliers

Producers have borne most of the risk of Producers have borne most of the risk of exposure to disasterexposure to disaster


Short-term (Emergency) MeasuresShort-term (Emergency) Measures Heavily producer-subsidized inputs for Winter Heavily producer-subsidized inputs for Winter

crops (October planting), including forage cropscrops (October planting), including forage crops Livestock feed/concentrate to avoid further Livestock feed/concentrate to avoid further

destockingdestocking Tax relief: land, rural economic activities, import Tax relief: land, rural economic activities, import

dutiesduties Expanded social protection programs Expanded social protection programs

(allowances, school meals, use of school (allowances, school meals, use of school canteens for the vulnerable)canteens for the vulnerable)

Cash-for-public worksCash-for-public works Fortification of domestic/imported wheat against Fortification of domestic/imported wheat against

iron deficiencyiron deficiency


Medium-term MeasuresMedium-term Measures Reconstitution of household livestock assets Reconstitution of household livestock assets

(diversification, e.g. rabbits)(diversification, e.g. rabbits) Plant genetic material: choice, selection, multiplication, Plant genetic material: choice, selection, multiplication,

risk-mitigation (e.g. red sorghum for livestock feed)risk-mitigation (e.g. red sorghum for livestock feed) Proper emphasis on diversification, adaptation, and Proper emphasis on diversification, adaptation, and

extension to home garden food productionextension to home garden food production Improved access to water resources for home gardens, Improved access to water resources for home gardens,

including appropriate low-cost pumps, other including appropriate low-cost pumps, other technologiestechnologies

Better use of water resources for home garden food Better use of water resources for home garden food production, including rainwater harvestingproduction, including rainwater harvesting

Use of information for food security monitoring, early Use of information for food security monitoring, early warningwarning


Long-term Measures (start now!)Long-term Measures (start now!)

Components of a sustainable ag Components of a sustainable ag sector strategy: crop mix, varietal sector strategy: crop mix, varietal selection, protection of the resource selection, protection of the resource base, efficient use of water resourcesbase, efficient use of water resources

Financial sector reform - integrated Financial sector reform - integrated with:with:

Agricultural insurance sector reformAgricultural insurance sector reform


MOLDOVA – Logistics Options

Cahul

Balti

Chisinau

Odessa

Reni

• Entry points• Ports • Rail & Road options • Storage• Roads• Milling• Implementing partnerROMANIA

UKRAINE

UKRAINE

UKRAINE

Thank you!Thank you!

Questions and comments Questions and comments welcomewelcome

Documents

FAO/WFP Crop and Food Security Assessment