Fast-Time Simulation Federal Aviation of the Benefits of NextGen · 2019. 3. 22. · New runways and ATM enhancements Seed Year. Federal Aviation Administration 18 NextGen Fast-Time

Presented to: 2009 NAS Performance Workshop

By: Joseph Post, FAA NextGen and Ops Planning

Date: April 15 2009

Federal AviationAdministrationFast-Time Simulation

of the Benefits of NextGenProcesses andPontifications

Federal AviationAdministration 2

NextGen Fast-Time SimulationApril 15 2009

ATO Organizational ContextChief Operating Officer (COO)

Hank KrakowskiAJO-0

Sr. VPStrategy & Performance

John L. PipesAJG-0

Sr. VPNextGen & Ops. Planning

Victoria CoxAJP-0

Sr. VPFinance

Gene JubaAJF-0

VPSystem OperationsNancy Kalinowski

AJR-0

VPEn Route & OceanicRick Ducharme (A)

AJE-0

VPTechnical Operations

Teri BristolAJW-0

VPTerminal

Steve OsterdahlAJT-0

VPService Center

Walt Cochran (A)AJV-0

VPTechnical Training

Shawn ClarkAJL-0

VPAcquisition & BusinessJames H. Washington

AJA-0

VPSafety

Bob TarterAJS-0

Sr. VPOperationsRick Day

AJN-0

Systems Engineering & Safety

James WilliamsAJP - 1

Research & Tech. DevelopmentBarry Scott

AJP - 6

WJH OfficeWilson Felder

AJP - 7

AdministrationBrenda Willingham

AJP - 8

ComptrollerMolly Vorce

AJP - 9

NextGen Integration & Implementation

Mike RomanowskiAJP - A

Aviation WeatherKen Leonard

AJP - B

Joint Planning & Development (JPDO)

Charles LeaderAJP - C

NextGen Systems Analysis

Joseph Post (A)AJP - D



FAA NextGen Portfolio

Transformational ProgramsADS-BSWIMNextGen Data CommunicationsNextGen Network Enabled WeatherNAS Voice SwitchRNAV/RNP

41 Mid-Term Capabilities

Airfield Improvements

New Runways

Runway Extensions

Airfield Reconfigurations

7Solution Sets

TBOHigh Density AirportsFlexible Terminal & AirportsCATMReduced Weather ImpactSafety, Security, & Environ.Transform Facilities



Example: TBOInitiate Trajectory-Based Operations



NextGen Portfolio Modeling

• Estimates the operational benefits of NextGen improvements• National in scope

– Uses FAA NAS-wide simulation environment• Fully-integrated model accounting for interaction effects• NextGen "capability" and airport runway focus

– Capital programs implied• Ten year projection• Incorporates latest APO operations & fleet forecasts• Builds on more detailed capability-level analyses• Continuous validation and refinement

Objective: To develop a modeling environment that can be used for NextGen

trade studies and investment decision-making



Analytical Process

Examine NextGen Implementation Plan (NGIP), Enterprise Architecture (EA)

Identify benefits mechanisms of NextGen Capabilities / OIs

Relate benefits mechanisms to model parameters and inputs

Exercise model

Compare results with baseline (“do nothing”) case

Compare model results with historical data

Modify model to address shortcomings



Modeling Framework

FutureScheduleGenerator

ORD Forecast Operations

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Fiscal Year

Tota

l Ann

ual O

pera

tions

Operations Forecast

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2008

2009

2010

20112012

2013

2014

20152016

2017

2018

Num

ber

of A

ircr

aft

Fleet Forecast

ETMS DataChicago O'Hare (ORD) - Spring Quarter Peak Day

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Local Hour

Ope

ratio

ns (/

15 m

in. e

poch

)

2007 Baseline Cap 2015_Baseline 2015-Trimmed

UnconstrainedSchedules

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 20 40 60 80 100 120Departures (/hr)

Arr

lival

s (/h

r)

VMCMMCIMC

Airport Capacities

Chicago O'Hare (ORD) - Spring Quarter Peak Day

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Local Hour

Ope

ratio

ns (/

15 m

in. e

poch

)

2007 Baseline Cap 2015_Baseline 2015-TrimmedIndustry/RegulatorResponse

ConstrainedSchedules

QueuingModel

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Fiscal Year

Tota

l Ann

ual D

elay

(mill

. min

)

BaselineRunwaysNextGen

Sector Capacities

Delay

TrajectoryModel

Aircraft Performance

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Fiscal Year

Fuel

Con

sum

ptio

n (b

illio

n ga

l)

422

442

462

482

502

522

542

562

582

CO

2 Em

issi

ons

(bill

ion

lb)


20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Fiscal Year

Fuel

Con

sum

ptio

n (b

illio

n ga

l)

422

442

462

482

502

522

542

562

582

CO

2 Em

issi

ons

(bill

ion

lb)


20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Fiscal Year

Fuel

Con

sum

ptio

n (b

illio

n ga

l)

422

442

462

482

502

522

542

562

582

CO

2 Em

issi

ons

(bill

ion

lb)


Fuel Burn



Metrics• Flights accommodated

– NextGen allows more operations at capacity-constrained airports

• Delay– Gate push-back– Departure runway/fix queuing– Sector queuing– Arrival fix/runway queuing

• Fuel Burn– Origin to Destination– US airspace

• CO2– Jet A savings converted to CO2 using multiplier of 21.095 lb/gal



Experiment Design

Three cases typically examined:1. "Do nothing"

– 2007 airport capacities, technologies, and procedures

2. "Concrete Only"– New runways, runway extensions, and airport

configurations included as they are projected to occur3. NextGen ≡ Concrete + ATM Improvements

– New runways, runway extensions, and airport configurations included as they are projected to occur

– NextGen technologies and procedures also included



Airports Represented in NASPAC• Arrival/departure capacities for 110 airports

– All other airports assumed to have infinite capacity• VFR traffic included at subset of 73 airports• NextGen procedural/technological improvements at

OEP 35 airports

OEP AirportsOther Airports

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 20 40 60 80 100 120Departures (/hr)

Arr

lival

s (/h

r)

VMCMMCIMC

Washington Dulles InternationalAirport Capacities



Airspace Modeled• All IFR flights in US airspace• 939 airspace elements "capacitated"



Runway Project Assumptions

Airport improvement assumed to take effect the first full year following that indicated. AJP makes no claims about the need for, or benefits of, these projects.

New runway 2017

New runway 2010

Runway extension 2013

New runway 2017

New runway 2009;New runway 2017

Runway extension 2009

New runway 2013

Airport redesign 2009-13

New runway 2013

New runway 2009

Runway relocation 2011



NextGen Improvements



Demand and Weather• Historical traffic and weather data

used to generate future scenarios– Sufficient number and scope of historical

days needed for accurate annualizationof effects

• Variables to consider– Traffic (i.e., demand)

• Weekly, seasonal, and regional variation– Weather

• Surface weather (ceiling, visibility),convective weather, winds, etc.

• Eight days used to represent year– High demand (weekday), low demand (weekend)– Four seasons



Sources of Uncertainty• Modeling limitations

– Airport capacities– Arrival/departure fix constraints & TRACONs – Traffic Flow Management (TFM)– Controller workload and sector capacity– Weather effects– Etc.

• Demand forecasting– Economic growth– Operator response

• Route network• Scheduling• Fleet evolution• Mergers and acquisitions

• NextGen Capabilities– Schedule– Effectiveness– Equipage



Typical Test Matrix

8 daysx 11 years

x 3 treatments

264 model runs

FY18

8/30/2007

8/18/2007

6/23/2007

4/19/2007

3/15/2007

1/21/2007

12/10/2006

10/19/2006

FY17FY16FY15FY14FY13FY12FY11FY10FY09FY08FY07 FY18

8/30/2007

8/18/2007

6/23/2007

4/19/2007

3/15/2007

1/21/2007

12/10/2006

10/19/2006

FY17FY16FY15FY14FY13FY12FY11FY10FY09FY08FY07

No runway or ATM enhancementsNew runways onlyNew runways and ATM enhancements

Seed Year



NextGen Modeling Next Steps• Regular annual update

– Jan. 2009 traffic forecast– New fleet forecast– Review airport infrastructure assumptions– New NextGen Implementation Plan

• Model enhancements– Improved airport capacities

• Accommodate multiple airport configurations• Update capacities for “next 30” airports

– Local airfield weather effects– Revised itinerary algorithm and input data distributions– GDP function– En route weather– Other improvements?

• Arrival/departure fix constraints• Airspace capacity models

– Sectors, TRACONs• Improve trajectory module

– STARs, DPs, fuel burn• Oceanic constraints



Changing Traffic Forecasts (1 of 2)

0

5

10

15

20

25

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Fiscal Year

Tota

l Ope

ratio

ns (m

illio

ns)

Jan. 2008 TAF

Dec. 2008 TAF Update

Forecast Operations at OEP 35 Airports

12%



Changing Traffic Forecasts (2 of 2)

2%

-14%

-13%

-24%

0%

-27%

0%

-2%

-10%

-11%

-17%

-7%

-18%-17%

-9%

-21%

-26%

-21%

-6%

-16%

-19%

-11%

-7%

-10%

-7%

-12%

-9%

-19%

-13%

-15%

-6%

-8%

-14%-14%

-16%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

AT

L

BO

S

BW

I

CL

E

CL

T

CV

G

DC

A

DE

N

DF

W

DT

W

EW

R

FL

L

HN

L

IA

D

IA

H

JF

K

LA

S

LA

X

LG

A

MC

O

MD

W

ME

M

MIA

MS

P

OR

D

PD

X

PH

L

PH

X

PIT

SA

N

SE

A

SF

O

SL

C

ST

L

TP

A

Ch

an

ge in

2018 F

orecast O

peratio

ns (%

)Change in Forecast Operations, OEP 35 Airports



Delay Projections, Jan. 2008 TAF

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Fiscal Year

Tota

l Del

ay (m

ill. m

in.)

v5d Baselinev5d Runwaysv5d NextGen



Delay Projections, Dec. 2008 TAF

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Fiscal Year

Tota

l Del

ay (m

ill. m

in.)

v5d Baselinev5d Runwaysv5d NextGenv6 Baselinev6 Runwaysv6 NextGen



NextGen Delay Benefit (1 of 2)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Fiscal Year

Tota

l Del

ay B

enef

it (m

ill. m

in.)

v5d, Baseline-NextGenv6, Baseline-NextGen



NextGen Delay Benefit (2 of 2)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Fiscal Year

Tota

l Del

ay B

enef

it (m

ill. m

in.)

v5d, Runways-NextGenv6, Runways-NextGen



If we can’t model the current system, how can we model

this thing?

NextGen



Back-up

Slides



Throughput and Delay

NextGen

Current Throughput

Delay

Operations

Baseline

ThroughputGained

Current operating

point

Futureoperating

Point, w/o NextGen

Future Delay,with NextGen

Future Throughput,

w/o NextGen

Future Delay,w/o NextGen

Future Throughput,with NextGen

DelayAvoidedCurrent

Delay FutureoperatingPoint, with NextGen



MAP Values

SectorCrossings

SectorEntry/Exit

Times CoreQueuingModel

FlightDelays

SectorCapacities

Airport Capacities

Pareto Curves

Wx

NASPAC Model

CapacityScheduler

Modeling Framework

JavaTrajectory

Module

4DTrajectories

WindField

TAF

ETMS

ConstrainedTraj.-Based

Forecast (2D)Industry/RegulatoryResponse

UnconstrainedTraj.-Based

Forecast (2D)

Delay WxUnsatisfied

Demand

FutureScheduleGenerato

r

ASPM,WITI

PFuel Burn Rate

D Fuel Burn, Delay

CDAAnalysi

s

ETMSD Fuel Burn,CDA

D Fuel Burn

S

D CO2

Documents

Fast-Time Simulation Federal Aviation of the Benefits of NextGen · 2019. 3. 22. · New runways and ATM enhancements Seed Year. Federal Aviation Administration 18 NextGen Fast-Time