-
FB external report for w4, 2017
Contents of the reportSubject Page
Comments 1
Market analysis 2
Socio-economical welfare 3-5
Cross-border capacities 6-12
Congestion rent 13
Non-intuitive flow 14
Net positions 15-16
Prices 17-20
System Price 21
Border flows 22-28
Power system impact analysis 29-30
CommentsHighlights
Known errors
Missing hours
On the 24th of Janury there is a loss in SEW for both the
Nordics and external markets, this is due to remedial actions that
were considered in NTC and not in FB. There would have been a need
for modification in the CNE's to solve this issue which has not
been done. In parallel run and after go-live FB and NTC would have
access to the same remedial actions, which means that this result
for the few hours is not representative of the result in
go-live.
Some hours are missing in the weekly simulations. This can be
due to different issues: -The input data for this hour was not
available. -They were differences in the available input data for
NTC and FB, which made the comparison between the two impossible.
These missing hours appear either as zero values or gaps in the
figures of this report.
The week 4 of 2017 was characterised by high demand in the
Nordics. The total socio-economic welfare increases slightly in the
area, however, the differences between the flow-based and NTC
method were quite small. The difference were due to the higher gain
in total producer surplus than loss in the total consumer surplus
in the area. The total congestion rent also increases slightly
during this week.
1
-
Market analysis
Nordic
Denmark
Norway
Finland
Sweden
The week 4 of 2017 was characterised by high demand in the
Nordics. The total socio-economic welfare increases slightly in
the
area, however, the differences between the flow-based and
NTC
method were quite small. The difference were due to the
higher
gain in total producer surplus than loss in the total
consumer
surplus in the area. The total congestion rent also increases
slightly
during this week.
The social economic welfare decreases slightly in Denmark
this
week. Most of the negative welfare resulted from increased
prices
in Denmark on the first half of the week. This resulted in a
higher
loss in consumer surplus and congestion rent than the gain
in
produced surplus.
The social economic welfare increases in Norway this week. This
is
due to increased domains in the interconnectors in the
flow-based
method. The flows within Norway and to the neighbouring
price
areas increased which resulted in a higher increase in
producer
surplus and congestion rent in Norway than the loss in
consumer
surplus.
The socie-economic welfare decreases slightly this week. This
is
mainly due to price variations on the 24th of January but
resulted
in a small net gain for producers but a bit higher net loss
for
consumers.
The total socio-economic welfare is quite the same in Sweden
with
both methods. There is a small gain in total social welfare with
the
flow-based method which is due to the gain in producer
surplus
surpassing the loss in congestion rent and consumer surplus.
Summary of market analysis
2
-
Socio-economical welfareThe socio-economical welfare, i.e. the
sum of consumer surplus, producer surplus and congestion rent, for
Flow Based (FB) compared to Net Transfer Capacity (NTC) are shown
in the following charts.
The weekly socio-economical welfare per day and in total are
shown in the following charts.
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
DK NO SE FIN
FB-NTC
M€
Nordic socio-economic per stakeholder and country
Congestion rent Producer surplus
Consumer surplus -60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
DK NO SE FIN
FB-NTCk€
Total Nordic socio-economic welfare per country
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
FB-NTC
M€
External socio-economic welfare per stakeholder
Congestion rent Producer surplus
Consumer surplus0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
FB-NTC
k€
Total External socio-economic welfare
3
-
The weekly socio-economical welfare per day and in total are
shown in the following charts.
The hourly socio-economical welfare for each country are shown
in the following charts.
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.52
01
7-0
1-2
3
20
17
-01
-24
20
17
-01
-25
20
17
-01
-26
20
17
-01
-27
20
17
-01
-28
20
17
-01
-29
FB-NTC
M€
Nordic socio-economic welfare per stakeholder and day
Congestion rent Producer surplus Consumer surplus
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
FB-NTC
M€
…and in total
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
20
17
-01
-23
20
17
-01
-24
20
17
-01
-25
20
17
-01
-26
20
17
-01
-27
20
17
-01
-28
20
17
-01
-29
FB-NTC
k€
Total Nordic socio-economic welfare per day
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
FB-NTC
k€
...and in total
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
20
17
-01
-2
3
20
17
-01
-2
4
20
17
-01
-2
5
20
17
-01
-2
6
20
17
-01
-2
7
20
17
-01
-2
8
20
17
-01
-2
9
FB-NTC
M€
External socio-economic welfare per stakeholder and day
Congestion rent Producer surplus Consumer surplus
-0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
FB-NTC
M€
...and in total
-30-20-10
010203040
20
17
-01
-23
20
17
-01
-24
20
17
-01
-25
20
17
-01
-26
20
17
-01
-27
20
17
-01
-28
20
17
-01
-29
FB-NTC
k€
Total External socio-economic welfare per day
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
FB-NTC
k€
…and in total
4
-
The hourly socio-economical welfare for each country are shown
in the following charts.
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
7
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
0 5 101520 1 6 111621 2 7 121722 3 8 131823 4 9 1419 0 5 101520
1 6 111621
2017-01-23 2017-01-24 2017-01-25 2017-01-26 2017-01-27
2017-01-28 2017-01-29
FB-NTC
Sum
k€
SEW
per
sta
keh
old
er k
€ Denmark, socio-economic welfare per stakeholder and hour
Congestion rent Producer surplus Consumer surplus Sum
-10
-5
0
5
10
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
0 5 101520 1 6 111621 2 7 121722 3 8 131823 4 9 1419 0 5 101520
1 6 111621
2017-01-23 2017-01-24 2017-01-25 2017-01-26 2017-01-27
2017-01-28 2017-01-29
FB-NTC
Sum
k€
SEW
per
sta
keh
old
er k
€ Finland, socio-economic welfare per stakeholder and hour
Congestion rent Producer surplus Consumer surplus Sum
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-80
-30
20
70
0 5 101520 1 6 111621 2 7 121722 3 8 131823 4 9 1419 0 5 101520
1 6 111621
2017-01-23 2017-01-24 2017-01-25 2017-01-26 2017-01-27
2017-01-28 2017-01-29
FB-NTC
Sum
k€
SEW
per
sta
keh
old
er k
€ Norway, socio-economic welfare per stakeholder and hour
Congestion rent Producer surplus Consumer surplus Sum
-20
-10
0
10
20
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
0 5 101520 1 6 111621 2 7 121722 3 8 131823 4 9 1419 0 5 101520
1 6 111621
2017-01-23 2017-01-24 2017-01-25 2017-01-26 2017-01-27
2017-01-28 2017-01-29
FB-NTC
Sum
k€
SEW
per
sta
keh
old
er k
€ Sweden, socio-economic welfare per stakeholder and hour
Congestion rent Producer surplus Consumer surplus Sum
5
-
Maximum cross-border flows
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
MW
h/h
DK1-DE border
Max flow with FB Min flow with FB Max flow with NTC Min flow
with NTC
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
MW
h/h
DK1-SE3 border
Max flow with FB Min flow with FB Max flow with NTC Min flow
with NTC
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
Mw
h/h
DK1-NO2 border
Max flow with FB Min flow with FB Max flow with NTC Min flow
with NTC
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
Mw
h/h
DK1-DK2 border
Max flow with FB Min flow with FB Max flow with NTC Min flow
with NTC
The graphs below show the maximum cross-border flows with FB and
NTC. The maximum cross-border flows with FB are computed
considering all CNE constraints. The maximum cross-border flows
with NTC can differ from the actual cross-border NTC capacities due
for example loop flows. When orange lines (FB) are not visible,
maximum cross-border flows with FB are equal to that with NTC.
6
-
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
Mw
h/h
DK2-DE border
Max flow with FB Min flow with FB Max flow with NTC Min flow
with NTC
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
Mw
h/h
DK2-SE4 border
Max flow with FB Min flow with FB Max flow with NTC Min flow
with NTC
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
Mw
h/h
FIN-EE border
Max flow with FB Min flow with FB Max flow with NTC Min flow
with NTC
7
-
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
Mw
h/h
FIN-SE1 border
Max flow with FB Min flow with FB Max flow with NTC Min flow
with NTC
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
Mw
h/h
NO1-NO2 border
Max flow with FB Min flow with FB Max flow with NTC Min flow
with NTC
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
Mw
h/h
NO1-NO5 border
Max flow with FB Min flow with FB Max flow with NTC Min flow
with NTC
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
Mw
h/h
FIN-SE3 border
Max flow with FB Min flow with FB Max flow with NTC Min flow
with NTC
8
-
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
Mw
h/h
NO2-NL border
Max flow with FB Min flow with FB Max flow with NTC Min flow
with NTC
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
Mw
h/h
NO2-NO5 border
Max flow with FB Min flow with FB Max flow with NTC Min flow
with NTC
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
Mw
h/h
NO1-SE3 border
Max flow with FB Min flow with FB Max flow with NTC Min flow
with NTC
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
Mw
h/h
NO1-NO3 border
Max flow with FB Min flow with FB Max flow with NTC Min flow
with NTC
9
-
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
Mw
h/h
NO3-NO4 border
Max flow with FB Min flow with FB Max flow with NTC Min flow
with NTC
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
Mw
h/h
NO3-SE2 border
Max flow with FB Min flow with FB Max flow with NTC Min flow
with NTC
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
Mw
h/h
NO4-SE1 border
Max flow with FB Min flow with FB Max flow with NTC Min flow
with NTC
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
Mw
h/h
NO3-NO5 border
Max flow with FB Min flow with FB Max flow with NTC Min flow
with NTC
10
-
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
Mw
h/h
NO4-SE2 border
Max flow with FB Min flow with FB Max flow with NTC Min flow
with NTC
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
Mw
h/h
SE2-SE3 border
Max flow with FB Min flow with FB Max flow with NTC Min flow
with NTC
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
Mw
h/h
SE3-SE4 border
Max flow with FB Min flow with FB Max flow with NTC Min flow
with NTC
-6000
-4000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
Mw
h/h
SE1-SE2 border
Max flow with FB Min flow with FB Max flow with NTC Min flow
with NTC
11
-
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
Mw
h/h
SE4-DE border
Max flow with FB Min flow with FB Max flow with NTC Min flow
with NTC
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
Mw
h/h
SE4-PL border
Max flow with FB Min flow with FB Max flow with NTC Min flow
with NTC
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
Mw
h/h
SE4-LT border
Max flow with FB Min flow with FB Max flow with NTC Min flow
with NTC
12
-
Congestion rentThe total congestion rent, i.e. the product of
flow volume and price difference, per border is shown in the
following chart. Some borders are experience negative congestion
rent with Flow Based due to non-intuitive netflows from a higher
priced bidding area to a lower priced bidding area. A decrease in
congestion rent is due to less border flow and/or smaller price
area difference.
-2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0
BE > FR
DE > DK1
DE > FR
DE > SE4
DK1 > DK2
DK1 > SE3
DK1A > SE3
EE > ERI
EE > LV
FIN > NO4
FIN > SE3
GB1 > GB2
LBE > LT
LRE > LV
LT > LV
LT > SE4
NO1 > NO1A
NO1 > NO3
NO1 > SE3
NO1A > NO5
NO3 > NO4
NO3 > SE2
NO4 > SE2
PLA > SE4
SE2 > SE3
NO1 > NO4
M€
FB NTC
13
-
Non-intuitive flowThe number of hours with "non-intuitive flow",
i.e. hours with flow from a high priced area to a low priced area,
and the sum of the resulting negative congestion rent is shown in
the following diagram.
0 0 1 0 9
34
103
11
25
0
16
1
57
1 2
98
3 0
28
6 0 0 0
115 105
93
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
DE
> D
K1
DE
> D
K2
DE
> SE
4
DK
1 >
DK
2
DK
1 >
NO
2
DK
1 >
SE3
DK
2 >
SE4
FIN
> N
O4
FIN
> S
E1
FIN
> S
E3
LT >
SE4
NL
> N
O2
NO
1 >
NO
2
NO
1 >
NO
3
NO
1 >
NO
5
NO
1 >
SE3
NO
2 >
NO
5
NO
3 >
NO
4
NO
3 >
NO
5
NO
3 >
SE2
NO
4 >
SE1
NO
4 >
SE2
PL
> SE
4
SE1
> S
E2
SE2
> S
E3
SE3
> S
E4
k€/w
ee
k
h/w
ee
k
Hours with non-intuitive flow and sum of negative congestion
rent per border
Number of hours with non-intuitive flows Sum negative congestion
rent
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
0 5 10 15 20 1 6 11 16 21 2 7 12 17 22 3 8 13 18 23 4 9 14 19 0
5 10 15 20 1 6 11 16 21
2017-01-23 2017-01-28 2017-01-26 2017-01-24 2017-01-29
2017-01-27 2017-01-25
Number of Nordic borders with non-intuitive flow per hour
14
-
Nordic net position
01000200030004000
0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6
1218
2017-01-23
2017-01-24
2017-01-25
2017-01-26
2017-01-27
2017-01-28
2017-01-29
MW
h/h
Nordic net position per hour
FB NTC
0
200
400
600
Nordics
GW
h
…and in total
FB NTC
-4000-3000-2000-1000
0
0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6
1218
2017-01-23
2017-01-24
2017-01-25
2017-01-26
2017-01-27
2017-01-28
2017-01-29
MW
h/h
External net position per hour
FB NTC
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
External
GW
h
...and in total
FB NTC
The Nordic and External countries daily average net position,
i.e. the netted sum of electricity export and import for each
market time period ,is shown in the following charts along with the
change of buy and sell volymes.
-10
-5
0
5
DK NO SE FIN
GW
h
Nordic buy and sell volume per country
Buy volume FB-NTC Sell volume FB-NTC
15 000
15 050
15 100
15 150
15 200
GW
h
Buy volume of FB compared to CNTC, External
Buy volume FB-NTC Sell volume FB-NTC
15
-
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6
1218
2017-01-23
2017-01-24
2017-01-25
2017-01-26
2017-01-27
2017-01-28
2017-01-29
MW
h/h
Denmark, net position per hour
FB NTC
0200040006000
0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6
1218
2017-01-23
2017-01-24
2017-01-25
2017-01-26
2017-01-27
2017-01-28
2017-01-29
MW
h/h
Sweden, net position per hour
FB NTC
-20000
200040006000
0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6
1218
2017-01-23
2017-01-24
2017-01-25
2017-01-26
2017-01-27
2017-01-28
2017-01-29
MW
h/h
Norway, net position per hour
FB NTC
-4000
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6
1218
2017-01-23
2017-01-24
2017-01-25
2017-01-26
2017-01-27
2017-01-28
2017-01-29
MW
h/h
Finland, net position per hour
FB NTC
-69
-69
-69
-69
-68
Denmark
GW
h
…and in total
FB NTC
372
374
376
378
380
Sweden
GW
h
…and in total
FB NTC
290292294296298300
Norway
GW
h
…and in total
FB NTC
-223
-222
-221
-220
Finland
GW
h
…and in total
FB NTC
The hourly average net position per Nordic country is shown in
the following charts .
16
-
Unique prices and price difference
0
5
10
15
0 6 12 18 0 6 12 18 0 6 12 18 0 6 12 18 0 6 12 18 0 6 12 18 0 6
12 18
2017-01-23
2017-01-28
2017-01-26
2017-01-24
2017-01-29
2017-01-27
2017-01-25
Number of Nordic bidding areas with unique price
FB NTC
0
20
40
60
0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6
1218
2017-01-23
2017-01-28
2017-01-26
2017-01-24
2017-01-29
2017-01-27
2017-01-25
€/M
Wh
Nordic hourly prices
FB NTC
0
50
€/M
Wh
…and in average
FB NTC
The average number of Nordic bidding areas with unique hourly
prices, and the price area difference is shown in the following
charts. The number of uniquely priced bidding areas is increasing
with FB but the average price differences between the bidding areas
are lower in FB compared to NTC. In the shatter diagram below the
price with FB and the price with NTC for each hour are plotted. The
straight line represent the outcome if FB-price would be equal
NTC-price. The plotted prices show more frequent above the straight
line which indicates a decreased electricity price with Flow
Base.
0
10
…and in average
FB NTC
17
22
27
32
37
17 22 27 32 37
NTC
, €/M
Wh
FB, €/MWh
Lower price difference with FB
Lower price difference with NTC
17
-
Area PriceThe hourly area price for FB and NTC for each Nordic
bidding area are shown in the following charts.
0.0
50.0
100.0
0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6
1218
2017-01-23
2017-01-28
2017-01-26
2017-01-24
2017-01-29
2017-01-27
2017-01-25
€/M
Wh
DK2, hourly prices
FB DK2 NTC DK2
0.020.040.060.080.0
0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6
1218
2017-01-23
2017-01-28
2017-01-26
2017-01-24
2017-01-29
2017-01-27
2017-01-25
€/M
Wh
FIN, hourly prices
FB FIN NTC FIN
0.020.040.060.0
0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6
1218
2017-01-23
2017-01-28
2017-01-26
2017-01-24
2017-01-29
2017-01-27
2017-01-25
€/M
Wh
NO1, hourly prices
FB NO1 NTC NO1
0
20
40
€/M
Wh
…and in average
FB DK2 NTC DK2
0
20
40
€/M
Wh
…and in average
FB FIN NTC FIN
0
20
40
€/M
Wh
…and in average
FB NO1 NTC NO1
0.020.040.060.0
0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6
1218
2017-01-23
2017-01-28
2017-01-26
2017-01-24
2017-01-29
2017-01-27
2017-01-25
€/M
Wh
DK1 hourly prices
FB DK1 NTC DK1
0
20
40
€/M
Wh
…and in average
FB DK1 NTC DK1
18
-
0.020.040.060.0
0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6
1218
2017-01-23
2017-01-28
2017-01-26
2017-01-24
2017-01-29
2017-01-27
2017-01-25
€/M
Wh
NO2, hourly prices
FB NO2 NTC NO2
0.020.040.060.0
0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6
1218
2017-01-23
2017-01-28
2017-01-26
2017-01-24
2017-01-29
2017-01-27
2017-01-25
€/M
Wh
NO3, hourly prices
FB NO3 NTC NO3
0.010.020.030.040.0
0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6
1218
2017-01-23
2017-01-28
2017-01-26
2017-01-24
2017-01-29
2017-01-27
2017-01-25
€/M
Wh
NO4, hourly prices
FB NO4 NTC NO4
20.025.030.035.0
0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6
1218
2017-01-23
2017-01-28
2017-01-26
2017-01-24
2017-01-29
2017-01-27
2017-01-25
€/M
Wh
NO5, hourly prices
FB NO5 NTC NO5
0
20
40
€/M
Wh
…and in average
FB NO2 NTC NO2
0
20
40
€/M
Wh
…and in average
FB NO3 NTC NO3
0
20
40
€/M
Wh
…and in average
FB NO4 NTC NO4
0
20
40
€/M
Wh
…and in average
FB NO5 NTC NO5
19
-
0.020.040.060.0
0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6
1218
2017-01-23
2017-01-28
2017-01-26
2017-01-24
2017-01-29
2017-01-27
2017-01-25
€/M
Wh
SE1, hourly prices
FB SE1 NTC SE1
0.020.040.060.0
0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6
1218
2017-01-23
2017-01-28
2017-01-26
2017-01-24
2017-01-29
2017-01-27
2017-01-25
€/M
Wh
SE2, hourly prices
FB SE2 NTC SE2
0
20
40
€/M
Wh
…and in average
FB SE1 NTC SE1
0
20
40
€/M
Wh
…and in average
FB SE2 NTC SE2
0.020.040.060.0
0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6
1218
2017-01-23
2017-01-28
2017-01-26
2017-01-24
2017-01-29
2017-01-27
2017-01-25
€/M
Wh
SE3, hourly prices
FB SE3 NTC SE3
0
20
40
€/M
Wh
…and in average
FB SE3 NTC SE3
0.0
50.0
100.0
0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6 1218 0 6
1218
2017-01-23
2017-01-28
2017-01-26
2017-01-24
2017-01-29
2017-01-27
2017-01-25
€/M
Wh
SE4, hourly prices
FB SE4 NTC SE4
0.00
20.00
40.00
€/M
Wh
…and in average
FB SE4 NTC SE4
20
-
System priceThe Nordic system price is calculated without
network constraints within the Nordic area, i.e. copper plate. In
the parallel simulations of FB and NTC the Nordic system price is
not calculated. The different modelling approach can though have an
impact of system price due to different allocation of capacity to
the interconnectors between the Nordics countries and the rest of
Europe. The system price is calculated locally at Nord Pool after
PCR, area price calculation. Calculated flows between the Nordics
and the Netherlands/Germany are taken into account as either price
independent import or as price independent export for NO2, DK1, DK2
and SE4. System price calculation has a different area
configuration compared to areas price calculation. Norway, Denmark,
Sweden and Finland constitute one bidding are. Baltic countries and
Poland are configured as one area each, just as when calculating
area prices. Between the Nordic region and the Baltic region +
Poland the same capacities as in the PCR, area price calculation,
are used when calculating the system price.
0 500 1000 1500 2000
DK1 -> DE
DK1 SE4
DK2 EE
FI NL
NO2 DE
DE -> SE4
SE4 -> LT
LT -> SE4
PL - > SE4
SE4 -> PL
Capacity [MW]
Average capacities in and out from the Nordics per
interconnector
Capacity FB
Capacity NTC
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
NTC FB NTC FB
Capacityfrom theNordics
Capacityto the
Nordics
Cap
acit
y [M
W]
…and in total
21
-
Border flowsThe flow on the borders between bidding areas are
shown in the following charts.
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1 9
17
25
33
41
49
57
65
73
81
89
97
10
5
11
3
12
1
12
9
13
7
14
5
15
3
16
1MW
h/h
DK1 > DK2 FB DK1 > DK2 NTC 0
200
400
600
MW
h/h
…and in average
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
1 9
17
25
33
41
49
57
65
73
81
89
97
10
5
11
3
12
1
12
9
13
7
14
5
15
3
16
1
MW
h/h
DK1 > NO2 FB DK1 > NO2 NTC -1000
-500
0
MW
h/h
…and in average
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1 9
17
25
33
41
49
57
65
73
81
89
97
10
5
11
3
12
1
12
9
13
7
14
5
15
3
16
1MW
h/h
DK1 > SE3 FB DK1 > SE3 NTC -100
0
100
200
300
MW
h/h
…and in average
-1500
-1000
-500
0
1 9
17
25
33
41
49
57
65
73
81
89
97
10
5
11
3
12
1
12
9
13
7
14
5
15
3
16
1
MW
h/h
DK2 > SE4 FB DK2 > SE4 NTC DK2 > SE4 NTC physical
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
MW
h/h
…and in average
22
-
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
1 81
52
22
93
64
35
05
76
47
17
88
59
29
91
06
11
31
20
12
71
34
14
11
48
15
51
62
MW
h/h
FIN > NO4 FB FIN > NO4 NTC FIN > NO4 NTC physical
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
MW
h/h
…and in average
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
1 9
17
25
33
41
49
57
65
73
81
89
97
10
5
11
3
12
1
12
9
13
7
14
5
15
3
16
1
MW
h/h
FIN > SE1 FB FIN > SE1 NTC FIN > SE1 NTC physical
-1500
-1000
-500
0
MW
h/h
…and in average
-1500
-1000
-500
0
1 9
17
25
33
41
49
57
65
73
81
89
97
10
5
11
3
12
1
12
9
13
7
14
5
15
3
16
1
MW
h/h
FIN > SE3 FB FIN > SE3 NTC -1500
-1000
-500
0
MW
h/h
…and in average
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
1 81
52
22
93
64
35
05
76
47
17
88
59
29
91
06
11
31
20
12
71
34
14
11
48
15
51
62
MW
h/h
NL > NO2 FB NL > NO2 NTC NL > NO2 NTC physical -600
-400
-200
0
MW
h/h
…and in average
23
-
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1000
2000
1 9
17
25
33
41
49
57
65
73
81
89
97
10
5
11
3
12
1
12
9
13
7
14
5
15
3
16
1
MW
h/h
NO1 > NO2 FB NO1 > NO2 NTC NO1 > NO2 NTC physical
-1000
-500
0
MW
h/h
…and in average
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
1 81
52
22
93
64
35
05
76
47
17
88
59
29
91
06
11
31
20
12
71
34
14
11
48
15
51
62
MW
h/h
NO1 > NO3 FB NO1 > NO3 NTC NO1 > NO3 NTC physical
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
MW
h/h
…and in average
-4000
-3000
-2000
-1000
0
1 9
17
25
33
41
49
57
65
73
81
89
97
10
5
11
3
12
1
12
9
13
7
14
5
15
3
16
1
MW
h/h
NO1 > NO5 FB NO1 > NO5 NTC NO1 > NO5 NTC physical
-2000
-1950
-1900
-1850
-1800
MW
h/h
…and in average
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
1 81
52
22
93
64
35
05
76
47
17
88
59
29
91
06
11
31
20
12
71
34
14
11
48
15
51
62
MW
h/h
NO2 > NO5 FB NO2 > NO5 NTC NO2 > NO5 NTC physical
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
MW
h/h
…and in average
24
-
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
1 81
52
22
93
64
35
05
76
47
17
88
59
29
91
06
11
31
20
12
71
34
14
11
48
15
51
62
MW
h/h
NO3 > NO5 FB NO3 > NO5 NTC NO3 > NO5 NTC physical 0
50
100
150
200
MW
h/h
…and in average
-1200
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
1 9
17
25
33
41
49
57
65
73
81
89
97
10
5
11
3
12
1
12
9
13
7
14
5
15
3
16
1
MW
h/h
NO3 > NO4 FB NO3 > NO4 NTC NO3 > NO4 NTC physical
-700
-650
-600
-550
MW
h/h
…and in average
0
200
400
600
800
1 81
52
22
93
64
35
05
76
47
17
88
59
29
91
06
11
31
20
12
71
34
14
11
48
15
51
62
MW
h/h
NO3 > SE2 FB NO3 > SE2 NTC NO3 > SE2 NTC physical 0
200
400
600
MW
h/h
…and in average
0
200
400
600
800
1 81
52
22
93
64
35
05
76
47
17
88
59
29
91
06
11
31
20
12
71
34
14
11
48
15
51
62
MW
h/h
NO4 > SE1 FB NO4 > SE1 NTC NO4 > SE1 NTC physical
380
400
420
440
460
MW
h/h
…and in average
25
-
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 81
52
22
93
64
35
05
76
47
17
88
59
29
91
06
11
31
20
12
71
34
14
11
48
15
51
62
MW
h/h
NO4 > SE2 FB NO4 > SE2 NTC NO4 > SE2 NTC physical
160
165
170
175
MW
h/h
…and in average
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
1 81
52
22
93
64
35
05
76
47
17
88
59
29
91
06
11
31
20
12
71
34
14
11
48
15
51
62
MW
h/h
PLA > SE4 FB PLA > SE4 NTC PLA > SE4 NTC physical
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
MW
h/h
…and in average
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1 9
17
25
33
41
49
57
65
73
81
89
97
10
5
11
3
12
1
12
9
13
7
14
5
15
3
16
1
MW
h/h
SE1 > SE2 FB SE1 > SE2 NTC SE1 > SE2 NTC physical 0
500
1000
1500
MW
h/h
…and in average
-1500
-1000
-500
0
1 9
17
25
33
41
49
57
65
73
81
89
97
10
5
11
3
12
1
12
9
13
7
14
5
15
3
16
1
MW
h/h
DE > DK1 FB DE > DK1 NTC -158.9
-158.8
-158.7
-158.6
MW
h/h
…and in average
26
-
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
1 81
52
22
93
64
35
05
76
47
17
88
59
29
91
06
11
31
20
12
71
34
14
11
48
15
51
62
MW
h/h
DE > SE4 FB DE > SE4 NTC -422
-421.5
-421
-420.5
MW
h/h
…and in average
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
1 81
52
22
93
64
35
05
76
47
17
88
59
29
91
06
11
31
20
12
71
34
14
11
48
15
51
62
MW
h/h
DE > DK2 FB DE > DK2 NTC -496.9
-496.8
-496.7
-496.6
MW
h/h
…and in average
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
1 9
17
25
33
41
49
57
65
73
81
89
97
10
5
11
3
12
1
12
9
13
7
14
5
15
3
16
1
MW
h/h
SE2 > SE3 FB SE2 > SE3 NTC 4000
4200
4400
4600
4800
5000
MW
h/h
…and in average
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1 9
17
25
33
41
49
57
65
73
81
89
97
10
5
11
3
12
1
12
9
13
7
14
5
15
3
16
1
MW
h/h
SE3 > SE4 FB SE3 > SE4 NTC 3850
3900
3950
4000
MW
h/h
…and in average
27
-
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1 9
17
25
33
41
49
57
65
73
81
89
97
10
5
11
3
12
1
12
9
13
7
14
5
15
3
16
1MW
h/h
EE > FIN FB EE > FIN NTC -200
-150
-100
-50
0
MW
h/h
…and in average
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
1 81
52
22
93
64
35
05
76
47
17
88
59
29
91
06
11
31
20
12
71
34
14
11
48
15
51
62
MW
h/h
LT > SE4 FB LT > SE4 NTC -400
-300
-200
-100
0
MW
h/h
…and in average
28
-
Power system impact analysis
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
2017-01-23 2017-01-24 2017-01-25 2017-01-26 2017-01-27
2017-01-28 2017-01-29
Ove
rlo
ads
[MW
h/h
]
Sum of CNE overloads systemwide per day
NTC - Market relevant NTC - Not market relevant
FB - Market relevant FB - Not market relevant
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2017-01-23 2017-01-24 2017-01-25 2017-01-26 2017-01-27
2017-01-28 2017-01-29
Max
ove
rlo
ad [
MW
h/h
]
Max CNE overloads systemwide per day
NTC - Market relevant NTC - Not market relevant
FB - Market relevant FB - Not market relevant
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1 5 0 4 8 121620 0 8 131721 1 5 9 131721 1 5 9 131721 1 5 9
131721 1 5 9 131721
2017-01-232017-01-24 2017-01-25 2017-01-26 2017-01-27 2017-01-28
2017-01-29
Ove
rlo
ads
[MW
h/h
]
Sum of CNE overloads systemwide per hour
Sum of NTC overloads Sum of FB overloads
29
-
Average welfare gain: 229 k€ Average reduction in overloads: -41
MWh/h
Median welfare gain: 293 k€ Median reduction in overloads: -43
MWh/h
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
-600 -400 -200 0 200 400
Increase in welfare and reduction in overloads
Hourly results Average Median
Net reduction in overloads (NTC overloads - FB overloads)
[MWh/h]
Net
incr
ease
in w
elfa
re (
FB w
elfa
re -
NTC
w
elf
are)
[k€
]
The figure below shows the net increase in welfare against the
net reduction in overloads when using FB instead of NTC. Each dot
represents one hour of the week addressed in this report. Values in
the quadrant A correspond to higher welfare and larger overloads
with FB. Values in quadrant B correspond to higher welfare and
smaller overloads with FB. Values in the quadrant C correspond to
lower welfare and smaller overloads with FB. Values in the quadrant
D correspond to lower welfare and larger overloads with FB.
A B
C D
30
