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1 September 18, 2015 DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR–HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY [email protected] US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. Weekly Insights DEBORAH WEINSWIG Executive Director, Head of Global Retail & Technology Fung Business Intelligence Centre [email protected] New York: 646.839.7017 September 18, 2015 This week, we attended Under Armour’s Investor Day, where the company generated positive buzz among sports fans and investors alike with two announcements: one with Stephen Curry and one financial Global Brands Group just closed an acquisition of Joe’s Jeans for $13 million and will hold the longterm license agreement for the brand’s core categories Lidl plans to open 281 new stores, many of them in central London. Lidl currently operates about 70 stores within the M25 motorway that nearly encircles Greater London The Mexican textile industry is expected to grow by 4% this year, to about US$26 billion, aided by a recovery in US exports and strong demand

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Page 1: FBIC Global Retail Tech Weekly Insights Sept 18th Insights by FBI… · !4 september 18, 2015 deborah(weinswig,(executive(director–head(of(global(retail(&(technology(deborahweinswig@fung1937.com((us:(917.655.6790((hk:(852.6119.1779((cn

       

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September 18, 2015

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2015  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

                                             

 

 

 

 

   

 

   

Weekly Insights D E B O R A H W E I N S W I G

E x e c u t i v e D i r e c t o r , H e a d o f G l o b a l R e t a i l & T e c h n o l o g y F u n g B u s i n e s s I n t e l l i g e n c e C e n t r e

d e b o r a h w e i n s w i g @ f u n g 1 9 3 7 . c o m N e w Y o r k : 6 4 6 . 8 3 9 . 7 0 1 7

September 18, 2015

This  week,  we  attended  Under  Armour’s  Investor  Day,  where  the  company  generated  positive  buzz  among  sports  fans  and  investors  alike  with  two  announcements:  one  with  Stephen  Curry  and  one  financial  

Global  Brands  Group  just  closed  an  acquisition  of  Joe’s  Jeans  for  $13  million  and  will  hold  the  long-­‐term  license  agreement  for  the  brand’s  core  categories  

Lidl  plans  to  open  281  new  stores,  many  of  them  in  central  London.  Lidl  currently  operates  about  70  stores  within  the  M25  motorway  that  nearly  encircles  Greater  London  

The  Mexican  textile  industry  is  expected  to  grow  by  4%  this  year,  to  about  US$26  billion,  aided  by  a  recovery  in  US  exports  and  strong  demand  

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September 18, 2015

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2015  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

 

FROM  THE  DESK  OF  DEBORAH  WEINSWIG  

This  week,  we  attended  Under  Armour’s   Investor  Day  at   its  headquarters   in   Baltimore,   MD.   The   company   generated  positive  buzz  among  sports  fans  and  investors  alike  with  two  announcements.  First,  NBA  star  Stephen  Curry  has  extended  his   contract  with  Under  Armour   through  2024.   Second,   the  company   has   set   a   2018   revenue   target   of   $7.5   billion,  representing  a  25%  compound  annual  growth  rate  from  the  $3.1   billion   in   revenue   the   company   reported   in   2014.   The  figure  represents  a  step  up  from  the  prior  growth  rate  target  of  22%.  

CEO  Kevin  Plank  characterized   the  company’s   first  20  years  as  having  been  built  on  a  promise   to  make  athletes  better.  Now,   by   leveraging   its   Connected   Fitness   network,   Under  Armour   is   positioning   itself   to   evolve   from   a   company  focused  on  changing  the  way  athletes  dress   to  one   focused  on  changing   the  way  athletes   live.  At   the   same   time,   the  company  says   that   it   is   just  getting   started   in   its  evolution   from  a  leading  performance  sports  brand  to  a  great  global  brand.  The  establishment  of  retail  stores,  particularly  in  Asia,  should  enable  Under  Armour  to  reach  more  athletes.  

How  does  management  plan  to  more  than  double  revenue  by  2018?  By  focusing  on  the  sports  category,  developing  innovative  products,  merchandising  globally,  maintaining  its  speed  and  reaching  more  athletes.  For  example,  Under  Armour  soon  plans  to  enter   the   sportswear   category.   A   key   focus   is  women’s   athletic  wear—and   the   company’s  women’s   team  business   grew   by  more   than  40%  this  year.  The  motto   is   “We  design   for  her.”   In   footwear,   the   company  plans   to  establish  product   leadership  (which  leads  to  market  leadership),  build  franchises  and  market  its  products  by  creating  an  emotional  connection.  

EVP   of   Innovation   Kevin   Haley   said   that   Under   Armour   is   an   unconventional,   contrarian   brand,   zigging   where   other   have  zagged.  The  company  offers  performance  apparel  and  tight  T-­‐shirts  made  from  synthetic  materials  and  priced  at  $50;   it  sells  over  the  phone;  and  it  does  not  discount  its  prices.  Its  technologies  include  microthreaded  apparel,  which  reduces  drying  time  and  weight  by  30%  and   increases  breathability  by  70%,  and   its  CoolSwitch  technology,  which  uses  a  proprietary  coating  that  pulls  heat  away  from  the  skin,  enabling  greater  endurance  and,  therefore,  higher  performance.  

The  company’s  unconventional  approach  has  created  the  world’s  largest  health  and  fitness  community,  Connected  Fitness,  with  a  total  of  150  million  registered  users.  Within  this  group  are  60  million  active  users,  engaging  in  1.3  billion  workouts  per  year,  and   recording   the   intake  of  6  billion   foods.  Under  Armour’s  Connected  Fitness  platform  can  monitor  daily  activity,   nutrition,  fitness  and  sleep,  and  interface  with  connected  apps,  connected  devices,  Under  Armour  shirts  and  shoes,  and  advertisers.  The  platform   includes   a   Consumer   Insight   Engine,   which   creates   personalized   content,   communications,   experiences,  recommendations  and  products  for  users.  The  platform  has  $200  million  in  direct  revenues  today  and  can  access  the  $8  trillion  health   and   fitness   industry,   the   $2   trillion   food   and   nutrition   industry,   and   the   $250   billion   sports   apparel   and   footwear  industry.  

Stephen  Curry,   the  winner  of   the   league  MVP  award,  who  drove   the  Golden  State  Warriors   to   their   first   championship   in  40  years,   made   a   surprise   appearance   at   the   investor  meeting.   Curry’s   first   basketball   shoe,   the   Curry   One,   and   his   signature  apparel   line  were   launched   in  February  2015,  and  the  shoes  continue  to  nearly  sell  out  across  all   retail  distribution  channels.  The   Curry   Two   has   already   been   launched   in   Asia,   in   conjunction   with   Curry’s   Under   Armour   tour   there.   The   shoes   will   be  released  in  the  US  and  globally  on  October  24.  Curry’s  relationship  with  Under  Armour  will  continue  to  grow,  as  his  signature  product  line  expands  and  is  increasingly  sold  on  a  global  basis.  At  the  same  time,  Curry  will  be  a  centerpiece  of  the  company’s  marketing  campaigns,   including   for  Connected  Fitness:  he  will  have  a  presence  on   fitness  apps,  and  will  design  new  training  programs  that  will  be  available  to  everyone.  

In  addition  to  Curry,  Under  Armour  highlighted  its  relationship  with  the  NBA,  announcing  a  10-­‐year  partnership  as  well  as   its  participation  in  the  NBA  FIT  App,  which  will  be  powered  by  the  Connected  Fitness  platform.  

Plank   also   showed   artwork   of   the   company’s   new   headquarters,   located   in   South   Baltimore,   which   employees   will   begin  occupying   in  January  2016.  The  company  spent  more  than  $90  million  acquiring  130  acres  of  waterfront  property,  which  will  serve  both  Under  Armour  employees  and  Baltimore  residents.  It  will  encompass  innovation  labs,  sporting  fields,  fitness  centers,  manufacturing   facilities,   public  parks  and  green   spaces.  While   the   company  has  historically   spent  3%  of   revenues  on   capital  investment,   it   expects   to   spend   8%–10%   of   revenues   on   capex   through   2018,  with   about   half   devoted   to   the   new   campus,  investments  in  technology  and  expanding  distribution  centers.  

Even   after   its   huge   success,   Under   Armour   is   excited   about   taking   itself   to   the   next   level   through   a   strong   combination   of  connected  and  garment  technologies,  expanding  its  reach,  and  creating  buzz  about  its  brand  through  associations  with  leading  athletes  and  professional  leagues.  We  are  fascinated  by  the  company’s  leadership  in  combining  connectivity  and  smartphones  with  athletic  wear,  and  we  look  forward  to  future  innovations  in  this  space.  

   

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September 18, 2015

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2015  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

 

 

 

             

 

             

US  Retail  Sales  Posted  Healthy  Results  in  August  Figure  1.  US  Monthly  Retail  Sales  ex  Autos:  YoY  %  Change    

 Source:  US  Census  Bureau/Haver  Analytics  

 • Total  US  retail  sales  were  healthy  in  August,  rising  0.2%  month  over  month  (adjusted).  The  

results  met  economists’  expectations.  Excluding  autos,  sales  rose  0.1%  in  August.  

• In  August,  consumers  continued  to  benefit  from  lower  gas  prices,  a  strong  dollar  and  a  healthy  labor  market.  Ten  out  of  the  13  major  retail  categories  posted  gains.  Auto  and  auto  parts  sales  posted  a  solid  0.7%  increase  over  July,  as  did  sales  at  bars  and  restaurants.  

• Fed  Chairman  Janet  Yellen  pointed  to  strong  car  sales  in  May  and  June  as  a  sign  that  “many  households  have  both  the  wherewithal  and  the  confidence  to  purchase  big-­‐ticket  items.”  

   

(10)  

(8)  

(6)  

(4)  

(2)  

0    

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03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15  

FBIC  HAPPENINGS  &  WEINSWIG’S  WATCH  ING  

CHART  OF  THE  WEEK  

 

STAT  OF  THE  WEEK  

 

 

• This  week,  the  FBIC  Global  Retail  &  Technology  team  attended  the  Goldman  Sachs  24th  Annual  Communacopia  Conference.  

• New  York  Fashion  Week  (September  10–17)  will  generate  $900  million  for  the  city  via  181  shows  and  308  events.    

• This  number  is  greater  than  the  revenue  generated  by  the  US  Open,  the  New  York  City  Marathon  or  the  2014  Super  Bowl.  

$900  Mil.  Source:  WWD.com  

 

%  

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September 18, 2015

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2015  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

 

US  RETAIL  HEADLINES  

Tory  Sport  Opens  Pop-­‐Up  Store  in  New  York  (September  14)  Women’s  Wear  Daily  • On  September  16,  Tory  Burch  will  open  a  Tory  Sport  pop-­‐up  shop  at  257  Elizabeth  Street,  the  

same  location  where  Burch  started  the  brand  11  years  ago.  The  collection  will  be  exclusively  available  at  TorySport.com.  A  permanent  store  will  open  in  the  Flatiron  District  in  March  2016.  

• The  new  sports  line  features  clothing,  shoes,  bags  and  accessories  for  running,  studio,  tennis,  golf  and  swim.  Retail  prices  range  from  $55  to  $550.  

Global  Brands  Group  Eyeing  Denim  Deals  (September  14)  Women’s  Wear  Daily  • Global  Brands  Group  just  closed  an  acquisition  of  Joe’s  Jeans  for  $13  million,  and  will  hold  the  

long-­‐term  license  agreement  for  the  brand’s  core  categories.  Joe’s  Jeans  will  use  the  proceeds  to  repay  some  of  its  outstanding  debts.  

• Bruce  Rockowitz,  CEO  and  Vice  Chairman  of  Global  Brands,  told  Women’s  Wear  Daily  that  “We  really  have  been  focused  on  what  are  the  categories  that  we  want  to  be  big  in  and  have  some  scale.  Denim  was  one.”  

Walmart  to  Expand  Grocery  Pickup  (September  15)  MarketWatch  • Walmart  is  adding  several  dozen  grocery  pickup  locations  to  the  parking  lots  of  existing  

Neighborhood  Markets  in  Northwest  Arkansas.  

• The  company  wants  to  test  customers’  responses  to  picking  up  groceries  without  getting  out  of  their  cars.  The  additional  locations  are  part  of  a  bigger  expansion  of  the  service.  

Target  Tests  On-­‐Demand  Grocery  with  Instacart  (September  15)  Target.com  • Target  is  piloting  one-­‐hour  grocery  delivery  service  with  Instacart  in  the  Minneapolis  

metropolitan  area.  The  collaboration  will  allow  customers  to  purchase  select  Target  household  items,  such  as  health  and  beauty,  pet,  and  baby  products,  in  addition  to  groceries.  

• Jason  Goldberger,  President  of  Target.com  and  Mobile,  stated,  “Our  team  is  constantly  listening  to  guests’  needs  and  looking  for  new  ways  to  help  them  shop  Target  wherever,  whenever  and  however  they  want.”  

Wayfair  Partners  with  Tech  Company  roOomy  to  Improve  Online  Furniture  Shopping  Experience  (September  15)  PRNewswire.com  • Wayfair  announced  a  partnership  with  tech  solutions  provider  roOomy  to  use  high-­‐resolution  

image  renderings  based  on  3D  product  models  for  DwellStudio  and  Birch  Lane  products.  

• Now,  customers  shopping  on  these  sites  will  be  able  to  experiment  with  multiple  textures  and  fabrics,  and  see  360-­‐degree  views  to  find  the  perfect  pieces  of  furniture  for  their  home.  

 

   

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September 18, 2015

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2015  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

ASIA  HEADLINES  China’s  Biggest  Internet  Companies  Rush  to  the  Entertainment  Sector  (September  15)  TechinAsia  • Tencent  announced  it  is  launching  its  own  filmmaking  arm,  Penguin  Pictures.  The  subsidiary  will  

focus  primarily  on  original  online  programming,  but  it  will  also  invest  in  a  dozen  or  so  feature  films  each  year.  

• Alibaba  launched  its  own  film  business,  Alibaba  Pictures  Group,  last  year,  and  it  cofinanced  a  summer  blockbuster,  Mission  Impossible:  Rogue  Nation.  Recently,  the  company  launched  its  own  Netflix-­‐style  subscription  streaming  service,  and  it  also  runs  a  crowdsourced  film-­‐investing  platform.  

Indian  Cab-­‐Hailing  Firm  Ola  Is  Raising  over  US$500  Million  at  a  Valuation  of  Around  US$5  Billion  (September  15)  TechCrunch  • India’s  Ola  is  raising  more  than  US$500  million  at  a  valuation  of  about  US$5  billion,  with  US$225  

million  committed  so  far.  In  April,  the  company  was  valued  at  US$2.5  billion.  

• Documents  filed  with  India’s  Registrar  of  Companies  revealed  Falcon  Edge  Capital  as  the  lead  investor.  Tiger  Global  Management,  SoftBank,  Hong  Kong’s  Steadview  Capital  Management,  Pittsburgh’s  ABG  Capital  and  the  FII  LTR  Focus  Fund  are  all  previous  investors  that  are  also  involved  in  this  round.  New  investors  include  JS  Global  Capital,  Parkwood  Bespin  and  Daniel  E.  Neary.  

Nintendo  Promotes  Executive  to  Replace  Late  President  Iwata  (September  14)  Channel  NewsAsia  • Japanese  video  game  maker  Nintendo  said  that  it  was  promoting  Managing  Director  Tatsumi  

Kimishima  to  replace  former  President  Satoru  Iwata,  who  died  of  cancer  in  July.  

• Genyo  Takeda,  one  of  the  lead  developers  of  the  Wii,  and  Senior  Managing  Director  Shigeru  Miyamoto,  creator  of  the  Mario  and  Donkey  Kong  games,  will  remain  Nintendo’s  other  two  representative  directors.  

Barron’s:  Alibaba  Shares  Could  Fall  Another  50%  (September  14)  Channel  NewsAsia  • Shares  of  Alibaba,  which  recently  slipped  below  their  initial  offering  price  after  having  rocketed  

75%  in  their  first  two  months  of  trading,  could  lose  another  50%  of  their  value,  Barron’s  said  in  its  September  14  issue.  

• Barron’s  cited  China’s  struggling  economy,  increasing  competition  in  e-­‐commerce,  and  more  scrutiny  of  the  company’s  culture  and  governance  as  the  reasons  for  its  dour  outlook.  

Alibaba  Hits  Out  at  Report  that  Warns  of  50%  Stock  Dip  (September  14)  ZDNet  • Alibaba  issued  a  sharp  retort,  accusing  Barron’s  of  publishing  a  report  that  lacked  “integrity,  

professionalism  and  fair  play.”  It  said  the  forecasts  were  based  on  incorrect  calculations;  for  instance,  Barron’s  compared  Alibaba’s  stock  performance  to  eBay’s,  although  the  latter  did  not  have  operations  in  China.  

• Alibaba  explained  that  it  transferred  ownership  of  Alipay  into  a  separate  private  partnership  controlled  by  Jack  Ma  in  order  to  meet  Chinese  banking  licensing  requirements  that  say  that  nonbank  payment  processors  have  to  be  domestically  owned.  Barron’s  had  commented  that  both  before  and  after  the  transfer,  Alipay  was  domestically  owned.  

 

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September 18, 2015

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2015  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

 Baidu  Injects  US$40  Million  into  Mobile  Health  Startup  Quyi  (September  14)  e27.co  • Founded  in  May  2015,  Quyi  develops  medical  apps  designed  to  shake  up  China’s  medical  sector.  

The  Shanghai-­‐based  startup  has  developed  three  services  that  target  core  links  in  the  industry.  

• All  of  Quyi’s  apps  are  constructed  on  the  company’s  comprehensive  information  platform,  which  is  supported  by  patient  data  collected  from  Quyiyuan  and  which  is  integrated  with  the  systems  of  partner  hospitals.  The  company  claims  to  have  more  than  1,000  public  hospitals  on  board  and  expects  the  number  to  reach  2,000  by  the  end  of  this  year.  

Japanese  Edtech  Startup  Acquired  by  US  Startup  amid  Online  Tutoring  Boom  (September  13)  TechinAsia  • American  edtech  startup  EnglishCentral  announced  it  would  acquire  a  Japanese  startup,  

Langrich,  which  offers  similar  online  tutoring  for  English  learners.  Tokyo-­‐based  Langrich  will  be  acquired  in  a  share-­‐swap  agreement  in  which  its  investors,  KLab  Ventures  and  Hitomedia,  will  become  minority  shareholders  in  EnglishCentral.  

• Founded  in  2010,  Langrich  uses  English  tutors  in  the  Philippines  to  provide  English  instruction  via  Skype.  The  site’s  users  will  now  benefit  from  a  video  lesson  archive  available  online  and  via  mobile,  as  well  as  EnglishCentral’s  speech  recognition  technology  for  studying  vocabulary  and  pronunciation.  

Snapdeal  Now  Offers  Instant  Refunds  to  Lure  Reluctant  E-­‐Commerce  Customers  (September  12)  TechinAsia  • Snapdeal  announced  that  it  will  offer  instant  refunds  via  an  IMPS  (immediate  payment  system  

or  interbank  mobile  payment  service)  transfer,  a  service  that  is  well  known  to  consumers  in  India.  IMPS  is  granted  to  banks  that  are  registered  with  a  mobile-­‐banking-­‐service  license.  The  instant  refund  can  be  accessed  on  mobile  phones  and  computers.  

• Flipkart  made  a  similar  move  weeks  ago,  promising  IMPS  refunds  within  24  hours  of  receiving  a  returned  product.  Snapdeal  wants  to  shorten  the  wait  to  90  minutes,  possibly  because  the  company  thinks  that  this  will  help  attract  Indian  consumers  who  are  still  wary  of  shopping  online.  

EUROPEAN  RETAIL  EARNINGS  

Company  

    Revenues  ($  Mil.)   Change    

Change  in  Reporting  Currency   Gross  Margin  (%)   Change   Net  Income  ($  Mil.)   Change     Store  Fleet  EOP  

Period   2015     2014     (%)    

2015     2014     (BP)   2015     2014     (%)   2015   2014  

Kingfisher     1H  ending  Aug.  1     8,404   9,688   (13.3)   (4.8)   36.7   36.5   19.8   486.6   487.1   (0.1)   1,178   1,157  

JD  Sports  Fashion     1H  ending  Aug.  1   1,239   1,126   10.1   20.8   47.4   47.9   (50.8)   52.7   21.3   147.8   879*   766*  

Grupo  Inditex   1H  ending  Jul.  31   10,418   10,056   3.6   16.5   58.1   57.6   46.0   1,289.4   1,154.2   11.7   6,777   6,460  Source:  Company  reports  

EUROPEAN  RETAIL  HEADLINES  H&M’s  August  Sales  Grow  Modestly  Due  to  Warm  Weather  in  Europe  (September  2015)  About.hm.com  • Swedish  fashion  retailer  H&M  reported  a  strong  year-­‐over-­‐year  sales  increase  of  11%  for  its  

third  quarter  (June  1  through  August  31),  in  local  currencies.  In  Swedish  krona,  sales  increased  by  18%,  to  SEK5.3  billion  (US$6.3  billion),  due  to  the  weakening  of  the  Swedish  krona  against  the  euro  during  the  reporting  period.  

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September 18, 2015

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2015  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

• August  sales  increased  by  only  1%  in  local  currencies,  year  over  year.  The  company  stated  that  sales,  which  were  below  analysts’  expectations,  were  pulled  down  by  unseasonably  warm  weather  in  most  of  its  main  European  markets.  

NEXT  Analyzes  the  Impact  of  Living  Wage  Increase  in  Its  Half-­‐Year  Results  (September  10)  Nextplc.co.uk  • NEXT  half-­‐year  results  through  July  showed  that  total  group  sales  were  up  by  2.7%,  to  £1.9  

billion  (US$3  billion),  and  that  NEXT  brand  year-­‐over-­‐year  sales  increased  by  3.3%,  to  £1.8  billion  (US$2.9  billion).  Profits  before  tax  increased  by  7.1%,  to  £347.1  million  (US$534.5  million).  Retail  margin  increased  by  14.9%  year  over  year  thanks  to  better  currency  rates,  productivity  improvements  and  closure  of  underperforming  stores.  

• NEXT  also  outlined  the  impact  of  the  Living  Wage  Premium  (LWP,  which  sets  a  new  minimum  wage  for  employees  who  are  25  or  older)  on  the  company’s  balance  sheet.  NEXT  stated  that  it  estimates  the  cost  of  implementing  LWP  will  be  £27  million  (US$42  million)  per  year  during  the  next  four  years.  The  company  deems  the  cost  manageable,  but  said  it  will  need  to  pass  part  of  the  burden  on  to  consumers  by  raising  prices  by  1%  during  the  same  period.  

Morrisons  Reports  Negative  Half-­‐Year  Results  and  Sells  its  Convenience  Stores  at  a  Loss  (September  10)  Morrisons-­‐corporate.com  • Morrisons’  half-­‐year  results  showed  a  like-­‐for-­‐like  sales  decline  (excluding  fuel  and  VAT)  of  2.7%  

and  a  total  turnover  decline  of  5.1%  (to  £8.1  billion,  US$12.6  billion).  Profit  before  tax  declined  by  35%,  to  £117  million  (US$182  million).  To  revive  its  business,  the  retailer  is  reconsidering  its  priorities.  Its  immediate  strategic  focus  is  to  improve  performance  in  its  core  supermarkets—which  explains  its  decision  to  exit  the  convenience  store  channel.  

• The  company  announced  it  would  sell  140  of  its  M  Local  convenience  stores,  all  but  five  in  operation,  to  private  equity  firm  Greybull  Capital  and  a  team  led  by  retail  entrepreneur  Mike  Green  for  £25  million  (US$30  million).  The  remaining  stores  are  either  on  forecourts  or  will  be  converted  to  small  Morrisons  supermarkets.  Morrisons  expects  to  incur  a  loss  of  around  £30  million  (US$47  million)  from  the  sale.  The  outlets  will  be  rebranded  as  My  Local  stores  by  the  new  owners  and  will  continue  to  operate.  

IKEA  Announces  Strong  Sales  Growth  for  Fiscal  Year  2015  (September  10)  Ikea.com  • IKEA  reported  strong  sales  growth  for  its  fiscal  year  ending  August  31.  Total  sales,  adjusted  for  

currency  impacts,  increased  by  8.9%,  while  turnover  (reported  in  euros)  increased  by  11.2%,  to  €31.9  billion  (US$34.9  billion).  IKEA’s  bed  and  bathroom  furnishing  solutions  contributed  to  comparable  store  sales  growth,  as  did  the  opening  of  new  stores  and  new  multi-­‐channel  solutions.  

• During  fiscal  year  2015,  China  remained  IKEA’s  fastest-­‐growing  market,  followed  by  Russia.  Germany  and  North  America  performed  strongly,  too,  as  did  the  majority  of  the  markets  in  which  IKEA  operates.  Even  Southern  Europe  showed  improvements.  Only  a  few  markets  were  still  struggling  due  to  the  persistence  of  challenging  economic  conditions.  

Ocado  Releases  Trading  Update  for  Third  Quarter  (September  15)  Conveniencestore.co.uk  • Ocado  recorded  a  15.3%  increase  in  gross  retail  sales  in  its  third  quarter,  with  average  orders  

per  week  going  up  16.6%,  to  190,000.  The  average  order  size,  however,  dipped  £1.15  to  £110.46  (US$170).  CEO  Tim  Steiner  stated  that  he  expects  future  growth  to  be  “slightly  ahead  of  the  online  grocery  market.”  

• CFO  Duncan  Tatton-­‐Brown  told  reporters  that  Ocado  is  targeting  an  overseas  technology  partnership  this  year.  Previously,  the  company  had  said  that  it  was  looking  toward  Western  Europe  or  North  America  for  a  partnership  in  licensing  its  technology.  

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September 18, 2015

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2015  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

 

Boden  to  Expand  Further  in  the  UK  and  the  US  (September  14)  Financial  Times  • Boden  intends  to  open  more  shops  in  the  UK  and  its  first  US  store  in  response  to  increased  

demand  for  its  clothes.  Currently,  the  online  and  catalog  retailer  has  just  one  shop  in  West  London,  but  the  newly  appointed  Deputy  Chairman,  Julian  Granville,  informed  the  Financial  Times  that  the  company  plans  to  open  shops  in  key  markets  over  the  next  few  years.  

• Granville  mentioned  that  Boden  wants  to  give  customers  a  chance  to  “come  to  [their]  brand”  and  that  those  who  “buy  a  limited  part  of  a  range  can  buy  more  at  stores.”  Customers  can  also  pick  up  products  ordered  online  at  the  stores.  Granville  stated  that  the  company  has  been  expanding  successful  products  in  its  womenswear  range,  particularly  dresses  in  printed  fabrics.  

South  African  Group  Looking  to  Buy  Office  (September  14)  Financial  Times  • Truworths,  a  South  African  company,  is  looking  to  buy  British  shoe  chain  Office  from  Silverfleet  

Capital.  Truworths  did  not  disclose  the  deal  price  and  said  it  had  not  yet  made  a  binding  offer.  

• Silverfleet,  a  US  buyout  group,  had  acquired  Office  from  a  Scottish  entrepreneur  five  years  ago  for  £150  million  (US$230.81  million).  Asda’s  former  chief  executive  is  the  current  chairman  of  Office.  The  chain  has  about  99  stand-­‐alone  outlets  and  48  concessions  in  department  stores  Selfridges,  House  of  Fraser,  Harvey  Nichols  and  Topshop.  

Lidl  Announces  Store  Opening  Strategy  that  Targets  Areas  within  London’s  M25  (September  14)  Retailanalysis.igd.com  • Lidl  plans  to  open  281  new  stores,  many  of  them  in  central  London.  It  previously  focused  on  

locations  that  were  in  the  suburbs.  Currently,  Lidl  operates  about  70  stores  that  are  within  the  M25  motorway  that  almost  encircles  Greater  London;  10  of  these  stores  are  either  in  or  around  central  London.  

• Lidl  has  been  investing  heavily  in  brand  campaigns  that  emphasize  its  value  and  quality,  which  have  reportedly  attracted  new  customers,  including  more  affluent  shoppers.  The  German  retailer  is  looking  for  sites  that  are  between  10,000  and  28,000  square  feet  for  some  stores  and  properties  that  are  up  to  four  acres  for  bigger  developments.  The  property  director  of  Lidl  told  reporters  that  prices  of  products  in  the  city  stores  will  remain  the  same  as  those  at  Lidl’s  other  stores.  

   

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September 18, 2015

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2015  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

LATAM  HEADLINES  Brazil’s  Political  Vacuum  Worsens  Economic  Crisis  (September  14)  The  Globe  and  Mail  • Last  week,  Standard  &  Poor’s  downgraded  Brazil’s  sovereign  debt  to  below-­‐investment-­‐grade  

status.  Brazil’s  currency  is  off  40%  year  over  year  from  the  US  dollar  and  down  60%  since  2011,  and  the  real  is  expected  to  fall  another  16%.  

• The  unemployment  rate  currently  stands  at  7.5%,  as  compared  to  4.3%  last  December,  and  is  expected  to  hit  10%  by  the  end  of  the  year.  

• The  government’s  ability  to  intervene  has  been  severely  weakened  by  the  Petrobras  scandal.  

Mexican  Textile  and  Apparel  Industry  Expected  to  Hit  US$26  Billion  This  Year  (September  10)  WWD.com  • The  Mexican  textile  industry  is  expected  to  grow  by  4%  this  year,  to  about  US$26  billion,  aided  

by  a  recovery  in  US  exports  and  strong  demand.  

• Exports  are  expected  to  increase  by  10%  this  year,  to  $4.5  billion,  based  on  a  sharp  increase  in  the  first  half  following  a  10%–15%  decline  last  year.  

• Domestic  apparel  consumption  is  expected  to  increase  by  3%–4%  in  2015,  after  a  2%  increase  last  year.  

Walmex  Expects  Strong,  Stable  Prices  throughout  the  Remainder  of  the  Year  (September  9)  Reuters  Mexico  • Walmex  hopes  to  maintain  stable  pricing  throughout  the  remainder  of  the  year,  amid  a  strong  

recovery  in  consumption  and  thanks  to  strong  foreign  remittances.  

• Sales  increased  by  7.4%  during  the  first  eight  months  of  the  year,  and  same-­‐store  sales  increased  by  5.4%  in  the  same  period.  

• Walmex  expects  to  double  in  size  over  the  next  10  years.  

Carlos  Slim  Plans  to  Expand  Philosophy  Jr.  Studio  into  Stand-­‐Alone  Retail  Chain  (September  8)  Forbes  • Billionaire  Carlos  Slim  Helú’s  companies  recently  announced  their  intention  to  expand  

Philosophy  Jr.  Studio,  a  new  fashion  brand  for  young  women,  into  a  stand-­‐alone  retail  chain.  

• Beginning  this  September,  Philosophy  is  expected  to  be  offered  in  two  malls  in  Mexico  City  and  in  the  state  of  Mexico.  

• Slim  plans  to  invest  US$20  million  to  open  100  stand-­‐alone  stores  by  2017.  

Fashion  Week  Mexico  to  Expand  to  Other  Cities  (September  8)  WWD.com  • Fashion  Week  Mexico,  which  is  held  biannually  in  Mexico  City,  is  expected  to  expand  to  the  

cities  of  Guadalajara  and  Monterrey.  

• The  Guadalajara  show,  held  in  Mexico’s  second-­‐largest  city,  is  expected  to  attract  1,000  attendees,  versus  1,600  attendees  at  its  first  occurrence  in  2014.  

• The  Monterrey  show  was  held  May  9–11  and  attracted  1,200  attendees.  

   

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September 18, 2015

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2015  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

EARNINGS  CALENDAR    

Company  

Earnings  Release  Period   Date  

Sales  (Mil.)   EPS  

Currency  Consensus  

TY   LY  Actual  Consensus  

TY   LY  Actual  

Industria  de  Diseno  Textil   1H  16   Sep.  16   9,388   8,085   0.37   0.30   EUR  

Rite  Aid   2Q  16   Sep.  17   7,603   6,523   0.04   0.13   USD  

Esprit  Holdings   FY  15   Sep.  23   19,867   24,227   (0.01)   0.11   HKD  

Hennes  &  Mauritz     3Q  15   Sep.  24   45,624   38,805   N/A   3.20   SEK  

Nike   1Q  16   Sep.  24   7,603   6,523   0.04   0.13   USD  

Costco   4Q15   Sep.  29   36,486   35,524   1.66   1.58   USD  

J  Sainsbury   1H  16   Oct.  1   12,428   12,667   0.12   0.14   GBP  

Tesco   1H  16   Oct.  7   30,429   30,473   0.06   0.08   GBP  

Walgreens     4Q  15   Oct.  8   28,519   19,057   0.81   0.80   USD  

Fast  Retailing   FY15   Oct.  8   1,668   1,383   N/A   N/A   JPY  

eBay   3Q  15   Oct.  14   2,096   4,353   0.40   0.54   USD  

Google   3Q  15   Oct.  16   15,030   16,523   7.23   4.70   USD  

VF  Corp   3Q  15   Oct.  19   3,678   3,520   1.12   1.08   USD  

ASOS     FY15   Oct.  20   1,160   976   0.44   0.45   GBP  

Apple   4Q  15   Oct.  20   50,878   42,123   1.87   1.42   USD  

Tractor  Supply   3Q  15   Oct.  21   1,488   1,360   0.63   0.55   USD  

Brunswick     3Q  15   Oct.  22   995   932   0.74   0.65   USD  

Procter  &  Gamble   1Q  16   Oct.  22   17,531   20,792   0.96   1.07   USD  

Carter’s   3Q  15   Oct.  22   856   799   1.47   1.24   USD  

Overstock.com   3Q  15     Oct.  22   402   353   0.14   0.07   USD  

Debenhams   FY15   Oct.  22   2,668   2,313   N/A   0.07   GBP  

Amazon   3Q  15   Oct.  23   24,904   20,579   0.83   (0.71)   USD  

Under  Armour   3Q  15   Oct.  23   1,176   938   0.44   0.41   USD  

Taubman  Centers     3Q  15   Oct.  26   136   176   0.78   0.87   USD  

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September 18, 2015

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2015  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

 

     

EVENT  CALENDAR        

Event   Location   Date(s)   FBIC  Presenting  

WWD  Digital  Forum  NYC       New  York,  NY   September  16–17    

Mélange  –  Where  Fashion  Meets  Technology     New  York,  NY   September  16–17    

BAML  Global  Consumer  &  Retail  Conference   London,  UK   September  16–18    

ICSC  Western  Division  Conference   San  Diego,  CA   September  16–18    

Mfashion  4WRD  –  Future  of  Digital  Technology   Boston,  MA   September  17    

TechCrunch  Disrupt  San  Francisco     San  Francisco,  CA   September  21–23    

Alimentation  Couche-­‐Tard  Analyst  Day   Laval,  Québec   September  22    

Silicon  Valley  Robotics  Network  Breakfast     San  Jose,  CA   September  23–24    

Hermès  Retail  Week  Supply  Chain  Awards   London,  UK   September  24    

Online  News  Association  15  –  Future  of  Media   Los  Angeles,  CA   September  24–26    

Apparel  Executive  Forum  by  Apparel  Magazine   New  Orleans,  LA   September  28–30    

ICSC  –  VRN  Fall  Outlet  Convention   Secaucus,  NJ   September  29–30    

Pepcom  Holiday  Spectacular     New  York,  NY   September  30    

Ecommerce  Expo   London,  UK     Sept.  29–Oct.  1    

Dunkin'  Brands  Analyst  Day   New  York,  NY   Sept.  29–Oct.  1    

WWD  –  Real  Estate  20/20  Summit   New  York,  NY   October  1    

TAP  Conference  2015  –  Mobile  Commerce   New  York,  NY   October  1    

Gartner  ITxpo   Orlando,  FL   October  4–8    

Shop.org  Digital  Summit   Philadelphia,  PA   October  5–7    

Urban  Land  Institute  –  Fall  Meeting     San  Francisco,  CA   October  5–8    

IT  Expo  West     Anaheim,  CA   October  5–8    

Amsterdam  E-­‐Week   Amsterdam,  Netherlands     October  5–9    

How  Cascading  Disruptions  Will  Change  Our  World   San  Francisco,  CA   October  7    

Future  of  Storytelling   New  York,  NY   October  7–8    

AAFA  Footwear  Workshop   Lawrence,  MA   October  8    

Lundgren  Center  Executive  Board  University  of  Arizona   Tucson,  AZ   October  10    

TEDxHongKong  2015   Hong  Kong   October  11    

National  Association  of  Convenience  Stores   Las  Vegas,  NV   October  11–14    

NG  Retail  –  12th  Annual  Next  Generation  Retail  Summit     Dublin,  Ireland     October  13–15    

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September 18, 2015

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2015  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

   

Deborah  Weinswig,  CPA  Executive  Director—Head  of  Global  Retail  &  Technology  Fung  Business  Intelligence  Centre  New  York:  917.655.6790    Hong  Kong:  +852  6119  1779  [email protected]    Filippo  Battaini  [email protected]  

Marie  Driscoll,  CFA  [email protected]  

John  Harmon,  CFA  [email protected]  

Aragorn  Ho  [email protected]  

John  Mercer  [email protected]  

Shoshana  Pollack  [email protected]    

Kiril  Popov  [email protected]  

Jing  Wang    [email protected]  

Steven  Winnick  [email protected]  

 HONG  KONG:  10th  Floor,  LiFung  Tower  888  Cheung  Sha  Wan  Road,  Kowloon  Hong  Kong  Tel:  852  2300  2470    NEW  YORK:  1359  Broadway,  9th  Floor  New  York,  NY  10018  Tel:  646  839  7017    LONDON:  242-­‐246  Marylebone  Road  London,  NW1  6JQ  United  Kingdom  Tel:    44  (0)20  7616  8988    FBICGROUP.COM