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1 September 4, 2015 DEBORAH WEINSWIG, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR–HEAD OF GLOBAL RETAIL & TECHNOLOGY [email protected] US: 917.655.6790 HK: 852.6119.1779 CN: 86.186.1420.3016 Copyright © 2015 The Fung Group. All rights reserved. Weekly Insights DEBORAH WEINSWIG Executive Director, Head of Global Retail & Technology Fung Business Intelligence Centre [email protected] New York: 646.839.7017 September 4, 2015 Next week, on September 10, UK budget retailer Primark will open its muchanticipated first US location, a 70,000squarefoot store in Boston, the first of eight initial locations in the US The limit for a single payment made through a contactless card in the UK, which allows users to pay with a single swipe of their card without having to enter a PIN or sign, has been raised from £20 to £30 (US$31 to $46) Home Depot plans to moderate its number of new store openings in Mexico to five to six annually, investing MXN500 million (US$29.5 million) this year to bring its store count there to 116 by the end of the year The Hennna Hotel in Nagasaki, Japan is populated almost entirely by robots, who check in guests at the front desk, while an automated cart takes luggage to guests’ rooms, obsoleting human workers

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Page 1: FBIC Global Retail Tech Weekly Insights Sept 4 2015 · !5 september 4, 2015 deborah(weinswig,(executive(director–head(of(global(retail(&(technology(deborahweinswig@fung1937.com((us:(917.655.6790((hk:(852.6119.1779((cn

       

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September 4, 2015

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2015  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

                                             

 

 

 

 

   

 

   

Weekly Insights D E B O R A H W E I N S W I G

E x e c u t i v e D i r e c t o r , H e a d o f G l o b a l R e t a i l & T e c h n o l o g y F u n g B u s i n e s s I n t e l l i g e n c e C e n t r e

d e b o r a h w e i n s w i g @ f u n g 1 9 3 7 . c o m N e w Y o r k : 6 4 6 . 8 3 9 . 7 0 1 7

September 4, 2015

Next  week,  on  September  10,  UK  budget  retailer  Primark  will  open  its  much-­‐anticipated  first  US  location,  a  70,000-­‐square-­‐foot  store  in  Boston,  the  first  of  eight  initial  locations  in  the  US  

The  limit  for  a  single  payment  made  through  a  contactless  card  in  the  UK,  which  allows  users  to  pay  with  a  single  swipe  of  their  card  without  having  to  enter  a  PIN  or  sign,  has  been  raised  from  £20  to  £30  (US$31  to  $46)  

Home  Depot  plans  to  moderate  its  number  of  new  store  openings  in  Mexico  to  five  to  six  annually,  investing  MXN500  million  (US$29.5  million)  this  year  to  bring  its  store  count  there  to  116  by  the  end  of  the  year  

The  Henn-­‐na  Hotel  in  Nagasaki,  Japan  is  populated  almost  entirely  by  robots,  who  check  in  guests  at  the  front  desk,  while  an  automated  cart  takes  luggage  to  guests’  rooms,  obsoleting  human  workers  

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September 4, 2015

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2015  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

FROM  THE  DESK  OF  DEBORAH  WEINSWIG  

Next  week,  on  September  10,  UK  budget  retailer  Primark  will  open  the  first  of  its  US  stores,  in  Boston.  The  large  (70,000-­‐square-­‐foot)  store  will  be  the  first  of  eight  initial  US  locations,  and  the  opening  is  much  anticipated.  

Primark  is  well  known  in  Europe,  but  there  is  little  awareness  of  the  retailer  in  the  US.  We  think  that  will  quickly  change.  Primark’s  mix  of  ultralow  prices  and  fashionable—and,  ultimately,  disposable—product  gives  it  a  distinct  market  niche,  and  one  that  we  expect  to  go  over  well  in  the  States.  

For  the  benefit  of  our  US  readers,  here  is  a  Primark  primer:  

It  is  not  H&M  or  Zara.  Some  analysts  have  been  tempted  to  put  H&M,  Zara  and  Primark  in  one  “European  fast-­‐fashion”  bucket.  We  think  this  is  based  on  a  misunderstanding  of  the  distinct  positioning  of  each  of  these  retailers  and,  in  Primark’s  case,  such  a  categorization  understates  its  value  positioning.  A  recent  study  by  Morgan  Stanley  found  H&M  to  be,  on  average,  107%  more  expensive  than  Primark  across  100  items  and  three  European  cities.  In  Britain,  for  instance,  Primark  offers  women’s  dresses  from  £5  (US$8),  men’s  jeans  from  £8  (US$12)  and  men’s  chinos  from  £10  (US$15).  H&M’s  cheapest  options  are  women’s  dresses  at  £7.99  (US$12),  men’s  jeans  at  £14.99  (US$23)  and  men’s  chinos  at  £19.99  (US$31).  

Price  drives  volume.  Because  prices  are  so  attractive,  impulse  purchasing  is  high.  In  our  store  visits,  we  have  observed  that  browsing  shoppers  are  hard  pressed  to  limit  their  purchases,  so  they  often  heap  another  item  onto  their  overflowing  shopping  baskets.  

But  it  is  not  just  low  prices.  Primark’s  strengths  are  that  it  mixes  compelling  prices  with  a  fast-­‐fashion  outlook,  bringing  new  ranges  to  stores  frequently  and  offering  on-­‐trend  product  that  young  shoppers  want  to  buy.  These  fashion  ranges  are  complemented  by  a  strong  range  of  basics.  This  is  not  about  drab,  supermarket-­‐style  clothing;  it  is  about  semidisposable  clothing  with  a  convincing  fashion  edge.  

Primark  invests  in  stores.  Primark  stores  are  typically  big,  multifloor  spaces—and  they  have  been  getting  bigger  in  recent  years,  partly  as  a  result  of  a  strategy  to  put  flagships  in  major  European  cities.  The  average  Primark  store  offered  a  little  over  37,000  square  feet  of  net  selling  space  in  the  first  half  of  2015,  we  calculate,  up  from  just  under  32,000  square  feet  at  year-­‐end  2010.  Moreover,  the  glossy,  feature-­‐heavy  appearance  of  these  stores  shows  that  Primark  does  not  neglect  the  in-­‐store  experience,  despite  its  price  positioning.  

US  stores  will  be  bigger.  Primark’s  new  US  stores  will  be  even  bigger  than  the  average,  which  is  already  substantial.  Seven  of  its  first  US  stores  will  be  sublet  from  existing  Sears  department  stores,  and  their  average  size  will  be  nearly  57,000  square  feet,  we  estimate.  We  expect  the  biggest,  at  the  King  of  Prussia  Mall  in  Pennsylvania,  to  come  in  at  75,000  square  feet  of  net  selling  space.  

Higher  densities  in  new  stores.  Far  from  needing  time  for  new  space  to  mature,  Primark  consistently  reports  that  its  newer  stores  outperform.  In  its  most  recent  trading  update,  the  company  said  it  had  seen  “very  high  sales  densities”  in  stores  opened  within  the  past  year.  It  also  recently  said  that  some  of  these  new  stores  “now  regularly  feature  in  Primark’s  top  20  stores  by  annualized  sales.”  The  quality  and  size  of  its  newest  stores  may  be  factors,  but  a  much  bigger  one  is  that  Primark  is,  in  many  cases,  expanding  into  areas  where  shoppers  have  not  previously  had  access  to  its  stores—as  will  be  the  case  when  the  Boston  store  opens  next  week.  

We  think  a  number  of  these  indicators  bode  well  for  Primark’s  move  into  the  US.  Moreover,  the  midmarket  American  consumer  has  shown  a  recent  reluctance  to  spend  big  on  apparel—so  Primark  is  likely  to  resonate  with  cautious  shoppers  who  still  want  to  look  great.  We  expect  a  number  of  US  apparel  retailers  are  more  than  a  little  nervous—and  they  should  be.  

A  rendering  of  the  exterior  of  the  new  Primark  in  Downtown  Crossing,  Boston  Source:  Primark  

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September 4, 2015

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2015  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

 

 

 

             

 

                 

US  GDP  ex  Figure  1.  US  Real  GDP  Growth:  QoQ  %  Change  (Annualized)  

   Through  June  30,  2015  Source:  US  Bureau  of  Economic  Analysis  

 • US  GDP   rose  at  an  annualized   rate  of  3.7%   in   the   second  quarter  of  2015,  according   to   the  

second  estimate  from  the  US  Bureau  of  Economic  Analysis.  

• The  reading  represents  a  huge  upward  revision  from  the  first  estimate  of  2.3%,  and  brought  the  growth  rate  for  first  half  of  2015  to  3.5%.  

• Real   consumer   spending,   the   largest   component   of  US  GDP,   grew  by  3.1%,   revised  up   from  2.9%  in  the  first  estimate.  

   

(10)  

(8)  

(6)  

(4)  

(2)  

0    

2    

4    

6    

04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15  

FBIC  HAPPENINGS  &  WEINSWIG’S  WATCH  ING  

CHART  OF  THE  WEEK  

 

STAT  OF  THE  WEEK  

 

 

• Next  week,  the  FBIC  Global  Retail  &  Technology  team  will  be  attending  the  Goldman  Sachs  22nd  Annual  Global  Retailing  Conference.  

• The   final   reading   of   US   consumer   sentiment   by   the   University   of  Michigan   for   August   2015   was   91.9.   The   reading   was   lower   than  both  economists’  consensus  of  93  and  the  previous  month’s  93.1.  

• While   the   result   might   reflect   short-­‐term   negative   views   on   the  recent   volatility   of   the   US   stock   market,   the   consumer   sentiment  data   still   suggest   a   healthy   expansion   of   2.9%   in   real   consumer  expenditures  in  2015.  

91.9  Source:  University  of  Michigan  

 

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September 4, 2015

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2015  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

US  RETAIL  EARNINGS  

Company  

    Revenues  ($  Mil.)   Change   Gross  Margin  (%)   Change   Net  Income  ($  Mil.)  Change  YoY   Store  Fleet  EOP  

Period   2015   2014   (%)   2015   2014   (BP)   2015   2014   (%)   2015   2014  

Alimentation  Couche-­‐Tard  

1Q  ended  July  19    8,980      9,190      (2.3)   15.8   13.9   188   304     270      12.8     10,216     8,485    

G-­‐III  Apparel  Group  

2Q  ended  July  31    474      424      11.8     35.5   35.0   53   12     6      99.7     N/A   N/A  

Dollar  General   2Q  ended  July  31    5,097      4,724      7.9     31.2   30.8   39   282     251      12.4     12,198     11,535    

Aéropostale   2Q  ended  August  1    327      396      (17.5)   17.8   15.8   206   (44)   (64)    (31.6)   826     1,072    

Five  Below   2Q  ended  August  1    182      152      19.5     32.8   33.4   (55)   7     8      (15.1)   417     353    

Source:  Company  reports  

US  RETAIL  HEADLINES  

Macy’s  Approves  of  Nineteenth  Amendment  (August  31)  Women’s  Wear  Daily  • Department   store   giant   Macy’s   formed   an   exclusive   partnership   with   young   tech-­‐fashion  

company   Nineteenth   Amendment.   Nineteenth   Amendment   consists   of   350   up-­‐and-­‐coming  designers  who  present  collections  that,  if  purchased  by  a  consumer  or  retailer,  are  produced  in  local   US   factories.   Terry   Lundgren,   Chairman   and   CEO   of   Macy’s,   said   the   service   provides  “independent  designers  a  risk-­‐free  way  to  come  to  market.”  

• The  partnership’s   goal   is   to   connect  Macy’s  with  millennial   shoppers.   For   its  part,  Macy’s  will  link  to  Nineteenth  Amendment  on  its  website  and  eventually  have  the  ability  to  give  shoppers  exclusive  first-­‐access  pieces  from  specially  selected  collections.  

Amazon  Prime  to  Undergo  Changes  Following  “Ship  by  Region”  (August  28)  The  Wall  Street  Journal  • An   Amazon   Prime   program   nicknamed   Ship   by   Region  will   allow   select  merchants   to   choose  

how  far   they  are  willing   to  ship  goods   to  Prime  members  by  evaluating   the  distance  between  customer  and  item  ordered.  The  program  aims  to  increase  the  number  of  Prime-­‐eligible  items.  Previously,  all  merchants  had  to  ship  their  goods  to  Amazon  warehouses  first  in  order  for  them  to  be  Prime  eligible.  

• The  move  is  expected  to  attract  more  sellers,  but  restrict  some  of  the  company’s  free  delivery  service   features.   By   allowing   direct-­‐to-­‐consumer   shipping,   Amazon   seeks   to   reduce   shipping  costs.   Such  expenses   rose  by  29%,   to  $2.34  billion,   in   this   year’s   second  quarter,   outpacing   a  17%  increase  in  all  operating  expenses,  according  to  the  The  Wall  Street  Journal.  

Walmart  Cuts  Workers’  Hours  to  Lower  Expenses  (September  1)  CNBC  • Walmart  is  scaling  back  employee  hours  at  some  stores  in  an  effort  to  reduce  costs.  The  push  to  

save  on  staffing  comes  as  the  company  is  spending  money  on  increasing  staffing  at  peak  hours  and  making  stores  more  efficient  and  pleasant  to  shop   in.  The  cuts  affect  only  stores  that  are  exceeding  their  budget  for  staff.  

• In  April,  Walmart   increased   the  company-­‐wide  minimum  wage   to  $9,  and   it  plans   to   increase  pay  to  $10  for  many  employees  in  February.  

Fresh  Market  Names  Richard  Anicetti  CEO  (September  1)  The  Wall  Street  Journal  • Fresh   Market   named   former   Food   Lion   CEO   Richard   Anicetti   as   its   new   CEO   late   Tuesday.  

Anicetti   served   as   President   and  CEO  of   Food   Lion   for   eight   years.   Fresh  Market   shares  were  unchanged  after  hours  at  $21.16.  

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September 4, 2015

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2015  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

• In   August,   the   company   issued   financial   projections   that   were   below  Wall   Street   consensus,  noting  that   its  push  to  reverse  a  sales  decline  by  cutting  prices  and  increasing  promotions  has  not  paid  off.  Comparable-­‐store  sales  fell  1%  for  the  quarter  ended  July  26.  The  grocery  retailer  operates  176  stores,  and  its  largest  presence  is  in  the  southeastern  US.  

 

ASIA  HEADLINES  

Pioneer  Tech  Gives  Vehicles  Gift  of  Sight  (September  1)  Nikkei  Asian  Review  • Pioneer   has   developed   an   inexpensive,   laser-­‐based,   3D   measurement   system   for   self-­‐driving  

cars  that  is  designed  to  serve  as  the  vehicles’  eyes.  Using  existing  manufacturing  equipment  at  its  factory  in  Saitama  Prefecture,  the  cost  could  be  less  than  ¥10,000  by  2025,  once  the  product  enters  into  mass  production.  

• Pioneer  has  completed  a  prototype  and  plans  to  begin  road  tests  in  2016  on  cars  operated  by  a  subsidiary  that  produces  digital  maps.  It  aims  to  have  a  version  for  commercial  vehicles  ready  in  2017,  and  a  version  for  consumer  cars  out  as  early  as  2018.  

HappyFresh  Pilots  Next-­‐Hour  Grocery  Delivery  in  Southeast  Asia  (September  1)  Enterprise  Innovation  • When   it   started   last   March   in   Kuala   Lumpur   and   Jakarta,   online   grocery   delivery   service  

HappyFresh  promised  grocery  delivery  (by  professional  shoppers)  to  customers  in  an  hour.  The  service  is  now  available  in  Bangkok  and  will  soon  be  available  in  Taipei.  

• “Our  plan   is   to  become  Southeast  Asia’s   leading   food  marketplace   company,   and  we  want   to  operate  in  all  major,  traffic-­‐congested  mega  cities  in  the  region,”  said  Markus  Bihler,  Group  CEO  and  Cofounder  of  HappyFresh.  

Startups  Innovate  to  Make  Payments  Faster,  but  E-­‐Wallets  Face  Ashley  Madison–Like  Threats  (September  1)  TechinAsia  • People   in   India  are  slowly  adopting  digital  and  electronic  payment  modes.  However,  payment  

startups  face  challenges,  such  as  lack  of  customer  awareness  regarding  products  and  how  to  use  them,  fears  about  security,  and  concerns  about  product  and  service  delivery.  

• Android   security   scanner   Appvigil   found   that   e-­‐wallet   apps   have   vulnerabilities,   including   the  possibility   of   Android  malware   infection   and  multiple   loopholes   that   allow   hackers   to   access  databases  with  users’  credit  card  numbers,  user  names,  session  IDs  and  even  passwords.  

HTC  Forges  More  VR  Relationships  as  Cofounder  Peter  Chou  Joins  Visual  Effects  Firm  (August  31)  TechCrunch  • HTC  Cofounder  Peter  Chou  has  taken  an  Executive  Director  role  with  Hong  Kong–based  Digital  

Domain   just  weeks  after  HTC,  which   is   struggling   in   its   core   smartphone  business,   said   it  was  investing  $10  million  in  virtual  reality  platform  WEVR.  

• Digital   Domain   was   behind   the   effects   in   Iron   Man   3,   Transformers,   Titanic,   Her   and   Tron:  Legacy,  and  has  worked  on  major  games  such  as  Assassin’s  Creed  Unity,  Destiny  and  Halo:  The  Master  Chief  Collection.  

Using  Samsung  Pay  in  the  US:  Magnetic  Secure  Transmission  Removes  Merchant  Barriers  (August  31)  ZDNet  • Instead  of  having  to  search  for  special   terminals  that  accept  Apply  Pay  or  Google  Wallet,  with  

Samsung  Pay  and  a  compatible  device,  customers  can  pay  at  just  about  every  terminal  in  the  US.  Store  owners  do  not  need  to  add  a  special  NFC  reader,  as  Samsung  devices  and  the  Samsung  Pay  app  communicate  with  the  magnetic  strip  on  the  terminal.  

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September 4, 2015

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2015  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

• ZDNet  reporter  Matthew  Miller  visited  a  Target,  a  Walmart,  a  Haggen  and  a  Shell  gas  station,  and  found  that  Samsung  Pay  worked  at  all  of  them,  while  neither  Apple  Pay  nor  Google  Wallet  worked  at  the  Target  he  visited.  

China  Has  the  Most  Global  3G  Subscribers;  1.4  Times  More  than  the  US  (August  31)  e27.co  • A  report  by  market  research  firm  Daxue  Consulting  found  that  prospects  are  bright  in  China  for  

mobile  app  makers.  China  has  1.28  billion  mobile  users,  and   the  app  market   there   is  growing  rapidly.  

• While  iOS  downloads  in  China  are  increasing,  Android  users  still  account  for  the  biggest  share  of  the   app   market.   The   country   has   more   than   200   Android   app   markets,   with   Baidu’s   store  ranking  among  the  top.  

Can’t  Decide  What  to  Gift  Your  Loved  One?  This  Startup  Has  an  Answer  (August  29)  TechinAsia  • Bangalore-­‐based  Qwikcilver  launched  Woohoo,  a  gift  card  store  that  has  partnered  with  brands  

from   400   cities.  Woohoo   allows   a   gift   card   receiver   to   choose   a   gift   from   categories   such   as  kitchenware,   apparel   and   jewelry.   The   cards   can  also  be   redeemed   for   experiences   such  as   a  trip  to  the  movies,  a  spa  visit,  dining  out  or  travel.  

• The  startup  has  partnered  with  150  online  and  offline  brands,  including  Shoppers  Stop,  Lifestyle,  Titan,  Madura  Garments,  Croma,  Pizza  Hut,  Makemytrip,  Flipkart  and  Amazon.  Woohoo  says  it  will  add  1,000  new  brands  in  the  next  year.  

Robot  Staff  at  Japanese  Hotel  Spell  Doom  for  Service  Sector  Jobs  (August  29)  ZDNet  • The  Henn-­‐na  Hotel  (which  translates  as  “Weird  Hotel”)  in  Nagasaki  is  populated  almost  entirely  

by  robots.  A  velociraptor  robot  and  female  humanoid  check  in  guests  at  the  front  desk,  while  an  automated  cart  takes  luggage  to  guests’  rooms.  

• This  bodes  ill  for  certain  kinds  of  knowledge  workers,  who  might  face  extinction.  For  example,  expensive   paralegals   could   be   replaced   by   e-­‐discovery   software   that   rapidly   sifts   through  documents.  Dependable  algorithms  could  replace  financial  planners.  And  the  Associated  Press  is  already  using  automated  software  to  write  stories  that  report  quarterly  earnings  of  companies.  

   

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September 4, 2015

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2015  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

EUROPEAN  RETAIL  EARNINGS  

Company  

    Revenues  ($  Mil.)   Change  in  $  

Change  in  Reporting  Currency   Gross  Margin  (%)   Change   Net  Income  ($  Mil.)   Change  YoY   Store  Fleet  EOP  

Period   2015     2014     (%)    

2015     2014     (BP)   2015     2014     (%)   2015   2014  

Auchan  Group  1H  to  June  30,  2015  

30,048     35,680     (15.8)   3.4    23.1     17.6    

545.3    175.4     462.0    

(62.0)   2,158     2,020    

Etam  Developpement  

1H  to  June  30,  2015   721     482     49.6   7.9   57.3     58.7     (148.9)   9.4     14.0     (32.9)   4,023   4,246  

Source:  Company  reports  

EUROPEAN  RETAIL  HEADLINES  

Net-­‐a-­‐Porter’s  Social  Shopping  Network,  The  Net  Set,  Is  Now  Open  to  the  Public  (August  27)  WWD.com  

• Luxury  retailer  Net-­‐a-­‐Porter  has  made  its  social  shopping  network,  The  Net  Set,  available  to  the   public.   Launched   in  May   2015,   the   network  was   accessible   by   invitation   only   prior   to  August  27.  The  app  allows  users  to  create  their  own  profiles  with  their  image,  and  to  interact  with   Net-­‐a-­‐Porter’s   labels,   search   for   products   via   the   app’s   visual   search   function   and  communicate  with  other  users.  

• The  vice  president  of  social  commerce  at  Net-­‐a-­‐Porter  stated  the  many  benefits  the  app  will  bring  to  the  retailer.  Given  the  retailer’s  access  to  customer  data,  the  internal  partners  and  brands   will   be   able   to   analyze   customers’   preferences   through   their   discussions   and  comments,  and  provide  products  tailored  to  them.  

Toys  R  Us  Acquires  Two  Retail  Sites  in  Southern  Ireland  (August  27)  RetailGazette.co.uk    

• Toys  R  Us  has  secured  its  first  retail  locations  in  southern  Ireland.  One  property,  at  Westend  Retail   Park   in   Dublin,   comprises   10,000   square   feet   and   has   a   mezzanine   floor   of   an  additional  7,000  square   feet.  The  other   is  at  Parkway  Retail  Park   in  Limerick;   it  has  17,800  square  feet  of  floor  space.  

• The   Ireland  CEO  of  Toys  R  Us   stated   that   the  company  plans   to  open  10  outlets   in   Ireland  over  the  course  of  five  years.  Toys  R  Us  operates  more  than  1,500  stores  worldwide,  with  50  in  the  UK.  

Asda  Revamps  Online  Shopping  Site  (August  27)  RetailGazette.co.uk  

• Asda  has  relaunched   its  e-­‐commerce  site  with   improvements   in  order  to  enhance  the  user  experience   and   create   a   bigger   brand   impact.   As   a   result,   the   number   of   site   visitors   has  increased  by  24,000  per  day,  and  the  percentage  of  visitors  who  leave  without  going  past  the  first  page  has  dropped  by  37%,  according  to  the  agency  that  redesigned  the  site.  

• Some  of  the  main  changes  to  the  site  were  the  addition  of  a  “Popular  on  Asda.com”  section,  and   a   reduction   in   the   number   of   top-­‐visited   sections   from   six   to   four:   Groceries,   George  Fashion,   George   Home   and   Money.   The   website   also   highlights   how   Asda   supports  communities  in  which  it  operates  and  how  it  helps  customers.  

Danish  Footwear  Retailer  Ecco  to  Open  25  New  Stores  in  Britain  (August  31)  Telegraph.co.uk  

• Danish  footwear  chain  Ecco  will  open  25  new  stores  in  Britain  to  strengthen  its  position  on  the  high   street.  The  group  has  nearly  doubled   in   size  over   the   last   three  years,   and   its  UK  store  count  is  currently  40.  

• The  new  shops  are  set  to  open  in  Leeds,  Bromley,  Manchester  and  Newcastle.  The  retailer’s  flagship  store  on  London’s  Oxford  Street  will  reopen  this  week  after  refurbishment  as  part  of  

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September 4, 2015

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2015  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

the  company’s  expansion  plan.  The  company’s  UK  managing  director  stated  that  Ecco  plans  to  open  about  35  stores  in  Europe  per  year.  

 Torrential  Downpour  Drives  Bank  Holiday  Weekend  Shoppers  to  Retail  Parks  (September  1)  Retail-­‐Week.com  

• UK  high  street  retailers  experienced  disappointing  sales  as  customers  chose  to  shop  at  retail  parks   due   to   heavy   rainfall   over   the   extended  Bank  Holiday  weekend.   The   footfall   at   high  street  stores  dropped  by  1.4%  over  Sunday  and  by  0.1%  through  the  weekend.  

• Over  the  entire  weekend,  footfall  at  shopping  centers  increased  by  6.2%,  and  at  retail  parks,  footfall   jumped   8.5%.   Average   footfall   during   this   year’s   August   Bank   Holiday   weekend  increased  by  3.4%  overall  across  the  three  formats,  compared  to  a  5.4%  decline  last  year.  

Contactless  Card  Limit  in  the  UK  Rises  to  £30  (US$46)  (September  1)  TheGuardian.com  

• The   limit   for  a   single  payment  made   through  a  contactless   card   in   the  UK  has  been   raised  from  £20  (US$31)  to  £30  (US$46).  The  contactless  method,  which  allows  users  to  pay  with  a  single  swipe  of  their  card  without  having  to  enter  a  PIN  or  sign,  was  introduced  in  2007  for  low-­‐value  payments.  

• More  contactless  transactions  are  reported  to  have  taken  place  in  2014  than  in  the  previous  six  years  combined,  according  to  the  UK  Cards  Association.  Though  the  new  limit  took  effect  September  1,  not  all  retailers  will  have  the  option  to  provide  it  until  their  payment  terminals  are  upgraded  with  new  software.  Currently,  there  are  58  million  contactless  cards  in  use  in  the  UK.  

ASOS  Cofounder  and  CEO  to  Resign  (September  2)  Bloomberg.com  

• Nick   Robertson,   the   CEO   of   ASOS—the   major   UK   online-­‐only   fashion   retailer—will   resign  from  his  position,  15  years  after  he  cofounded  the  business.  COO  Nick  Beighton  will  replace  Robertson,  who  will  continue  with  the  company  as  a  nonexecutive  director.  

• ASOS  grew  to  be  a   leader   in   fashion  e-­‐commerce,  with  annual   sales   in  excess  of  £1  billion  (US$1.54   billion).   Robertson’s   stake   in   the   company   is   worth   around   £200   million  (US$307.74  million).  

2015  Black  Friday  Event  Set  to  Rake  in  £1  Billion  (US$1.54  Billion)  (September  2)  Forbes.com  

• Considering   the   sales   surge   and   impact   of   Black   Friday   last   year,   global   e-­‐commerce  consultancy   Salmon   has   predicted   that   this   year’s   Black   Friday   (November   27)  will   be   the  first  shopping  day  when  UK  online  sales  will  reach  £1  billion  (US$1.54  billion).  This  landmark  value   is  expected  to  be  driven  by  a  heightened  awareness  of  Black  Friday  and  by  the  deals  offered  by  retailers.  

• Salmon  predicts  that  the  number  of  UK  shoppers  who  will  buy  online  on  Black  Friday  will  be  four   times   higher   than   last   year.   The   consultancy   also   stated   that   retailers   would   inform  customers   early   about   some   sale   items,   which   could   cause   demand   to   surge   in   the   days  leading  up  to  Black  Friday.  

 

   

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September 4, 2015

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2015  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

LATAM  HEADLINES  US  E-­‐Tailers  Can  Look  to  LatAm  for  Growth  (August  28)  InternetRetailer.com  

• Internet   sales   for   41   US   retailers   (excluding  Walmart)   grew   by   18%   in   2014,   according   to  Internet  Retailer’s  recently  published  Latin  America  500.  

• Sales   are   expected   to   accelerate   despite   some   challenges   due   to   increasing   numbers   of  Internet  users  and  online  shoppers,  and  strong  demand  for  US  products.  

• Particular   opportunities   exist   in   the   fashion   and   apparel,   sporting   goods,   and   health   and  beauty  categories.  

Bond  Default  Rates  Increased  in  LatAm  in  Past  Year  (September  1)  Moody’s  Investors  Service  

• The  default  rate  on  speculative-­‐grade,  issuer-­‐weighted  corporate  bonds  increased  to  4.2%  in  the   12   months   ending   June,   up   from   3.1%   a   year   ago,   according   to   Moody’s   Investors  Service.  

• This  percentage  derives  from  10  defaults,  eight  of  which  were  in  Brazil,  four  of  which  were  in  the  capital  industry  sector  and  three  of  which  were  in  the  technology  sector.  

• Moody’s  expects  the  default  rate  to  range  from  1.9%  to  4.2%  through  the  first  half  of  2016.  

New  Brazilian  Credit  Card  Startup  to  Offer  Lower  Interest  Rates  (September  1)  Bloomberg  

• São  Paulo–based  startup  Nubank,  backed  by  two  venture  capital  firms,  is  trying  to  break  into  the  Brazilian  consumer  debt  market.  

• Brazilian   credit   card   companies   currently   charge   rates   as   high   as   500%,   whereas   Nubank  plans  to  offer  monthly  rates  of  7.75%,  which  amounts  to  145%  annually.  

• Nubank’s  customers  have  already  opened  150,000  accounts.  The  company’s  customer  base  has   been   growing  by   about   60%  a  month,  moving  Nubank   closer   to   its   goal   of   reaching   1  million  customers,  or  1%  of  the  Brazilian  market.  

Home  Depot  Consolidates  Growth  in  Mexico  (September  1)  Reforma  

• Home  Depot,  now  with  coverage  across  Mexico,  plans  to  moderate  its  number  of  new  store  openings  in  Mexico  to  five  to  six  per  year.  

• The  company  plans  to  invest  MXN500  million  (US$29.5  million)  in  Mexico  and  bring  its  store  count  there  to  116  by  the  end  of  the  year.  

• Since  its  arrival  in  the  country  in  2001,  Home  Depot  has  invested  a  total  of  MXN28.5  billion  (US$1.7  billion)  there.  

Subway  to  Open  100  Stores  in  Mexico  in  2014  (August  27)  El  Economista  

• Fast-­‐food   chain   Subway   plans   to   open   100   new   stores   in  Mexico   in   2015,   representing   a  12.3%  increase  in  the  number  of  outlets.  

• The  company  has  1,000  outlets  in  Mexico  today;  60  new  stores  already  opened  this  year  and  another  40  openings  are  planned  during  the  remainder  of  the  year.  

• According  to  Euromonitor,  Subway  is  the  number-­‐two  fast-­‐food  chain  in  Mexico  (ranked  by  sales)  with  an  8.7%  share,  after  leader  FEMSA,  which  leads  via  its  OXXO  shops.  

   

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September 4, 2015

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2015  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

     

EARNINGS  CALENDAR    

      Sales  (Mil.)   EPS    

Company  

Earnings  Release  Period   Date  

Consensus  TY   LY  Actual  

Consensus  TY   LY  Actual   Currency  

Vince   2Q  16   Sep.  3   87   89   0.23   0.27   USD  

Men’s  Wearhouse   2Q  16   Sep.  8   947   803   1.05   0.96   USD  

Quiksilver   3Q  15   Sep.  9   342   396   (0.18)   (0.59)   USD  

Morrisons   1H  16   Sep.  10   8,190   8,496   0.04   0.06   GBP  

Next   1H  16   Sep.  10   1,897   1,850   N/A   1.73   GBP  

Hudson’s  Bay  Company   2Q  16   Sep.  10   2,005   1,769   (0.17)   (0.16)   CAD  

lululemon  athletica   2Q  16   Sep.  10   446   391   0.33    0.33   USD  

Kroger   2Q  16   Sep.  11   25,511   25,310   0.40    0.36   USD  

Gerry  Weber   3Q  15   Sep.  11   N/A   187   N/A   0.23   EUR  

Inditex   1H  16   Sep.  16   9,388   8,085   0.37   0.30   EUR  

Rite  Aid   2Q  16   Sep.  17   7,603   6,523   0.04   0.13   USD  

Esprit   FY  15   Sep.  23   19,867   24,227   (0.01)   0.11   HKD  

H&M   3Q  15   Sep.  24   45,624   38,805   N/A   3.20   SEK  

Nike   1Q  16   Sep.  25   7,603   6,523   0.04   0.13   USD  

Costco   4Q  15   Sep.  29   36,486   35,524   1.66   1.58   USD  

Walgreens   4Q  15   Sep.  30   28,519   19,057   0.81   0.80   USD  

Sainsbury’s   1H  16   Oct.  1   12,428   12,667   0.12   0.14   GBP  

Tesco   1H  16   Oct.  7   30,429   30,473   0.06   0.08   GBP  

eBay   3Q  15   Oct.  14   2,096   4,353   0.40   0.54   USD  

Google   3Q  15   Oct.  16   15,030   16,523   7.23   4.70   USD  

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September 4, 2015

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2015  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

 

EVENT  CALENDAR        

Event   Location   Date(s)  FBIC  Presentation  

         International  Retail  Design   Miami,  FL   September  3–5      

World  Retail  Congress   Rome,  Italy   September  8–10    Bank  of  America  Merrill  Lynch  Gaming  and  Lodging  Conference   New  York,  NY   September  8–10    Citi  Global  Technology  Conference   New  York,  NY   September  8–10    Big  Data  Innovation   Boston,  MA   September  9–10    Goldman  Sachs  22nd  Annual  Global  Retailing  Conference   New  York,  NY   September  9–10    

Connected  Health  Summit   San  Diego,  CA   September  9–10    

Wearable  Technology  in  Sport  Summit   San  Francisco,  CA   September  9–10    

MakeUp  in  New  York   New  York,  NY   September  9–10   Jing  Wang  InterDrone:  International  Drone  Conference  and  Exposition   Las  Vegas,  NV   September  9–11    

International  Retail  Design  Conference   Austin,  TX   September  9–11    

NRF  Retail  Leaders  Dinner   Dallas,  TX   September  10    

Digital  Design  &  Web  Innovation  Summit   Los  Angeles,  CA   September  10–11    

MOBX  2015:  Europe’s  Premier  Mobile  UX  Summit   Berlin,  Germany   September  11    IBC  Conference  and  Exhibition:  Electronic  Media  and  Entertainment   Amsterdam,  Netherlands   September  11–15    Nonprofit  Technology  Enterprise  Network:  Leading  Change  Summit   Washington,  DC   September  13–16    

Demandware:  Retail  Connect   Shanghai,  China   September  15   Fong  Lau  

RetailWeek  Tech  &  EComm  Conference   London,  UK   September  15–16    

Big  Data  &  Analytics  Innovation  Summit   Sydney,  Australia   September  15–16    

Dreamforce  2015   San  Francisco,  CA   September  15–18    The  Retail  Conference  2015:  The  Future  of  Retailing  in  the  Digital  Age   London,  UK   September  16    

Under  Armour  Investor  Day   Baltimore,  MD   September  16    

Luxury  Retail  Summit:  Holiday  Focus  2015   New  York,  NY   September  16    Goldman  Sachs  24th  Annual  Communacopia  Conference   New  York,  NY   September  16    

WWD  Digital  Forum  NYC   New  York,  NY   September  16–17    

Mélange:  Where  Fashion  Meets  Technology   New  York,  NY   September  16–17  Marie  Driscoll  

Bank  of  America  Merrill  Lynch  Global  Consumer  &  Retail  Conference   London,  UK   September  16–18    

ICSC  Western  Conference  &  Deal  Making   San  Diego,  CA   September  16–18    Fashion  4WRD:  Revealing  the  Future  of  Design  and  Technology   Boston,  MA   September  17    

TechCrunch:  Disrupt  SF  2015     San  Francisco,  CA   September  21–23    

Hermès  Retail  Week  Supply  Chain  Awards   London,  UK   September  24    

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September 4, 2015

DEBORAH  WEINSWIG,  EXECUTIVE  DIRECTOR–HEAD  OF  GLOBAL  RETAIL  &  TECHNOLOGY  [email protected]    US:  917.655.6790    HK:  852.6119.1779    CN:  86.186.1420.3016  Copyright  ©  2015  The  Fung  Group.  All  rights  reserved.  

   

Deborah  Weinswig,  CPA  Executive  Director—Head  of  Global  Retail  &  Technology  Fung  Business  Intelligence  Centre  New  York:  917.655.6790    Hong  Kong:  +852  6119  1779  [email protected]    Filippo  Battaini  [email protected]  

Sunny  Chan,  CFA  [email protected]  

Marie  Driscoll,  CFA  [email protected]  

John  Harmon,  CFA  [email protected]  

Aragorn  Ho  [email protected]  

John  Mercer  [email protected]  

Shoshana  Pollack  [email protected]    

Kiril  Popov  [email protected]  

Jing  Wang    [email protected]  

Steven  Winnick  [email protected]  

 HONG  KONG:  10th  Floor,  LiFung  Tower  888  Cheung  Sha  Wan  Road,  Kowloon  Hong  Kong  Tel:  852  2300  2470    NEW  YORK:  1359  Broadway,  9th  Floor  New  York,  NY  10018  Tel:  646  839  7017    LONDON:  242-­‐246  Marylebone  Road  London,  NW1  6JQ  United  Kingdom  Tel:    44  (0)20  7616  8988    FBICGROUP.COM