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Authored By
Manoj Bhattarai Nicola Saporiti Bruno TrouilleMWH, USA IFC, USA MWH, USA
Feasibility Study of the Kafue Gorge Lower Hydroelectric Project
Presented By
Bruno TrouilleMWH, USA
Janus BassonBKS (Pty) Ltd
Hydropower Africa 2010, August 18, 2010
IntroductionIntroduction
� Zambia Electricity Demand
� Export Electricity Demand
� Zambia and Southern Africa Power Pool Transmission
� Installed Capacity
� Zambia Least Cost Expansion
� Hydrology
� Site selection
� Geology
� Project Description
� Construction Schedule and Costs
LocationLocation
Demand Forecast AssumptionsDemand Forecast Assumptions
Zambia Electricity DemandZambia Electricity Demand
28,261
20,812
12,439
17,245
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
GW
h
High Base
Low Adjusted Base
Total Zambian Electricity Demand Forecast
Zambia Electricity DemandZambia Electricity Demand
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Year
GW
h
Large Power Small Power Commercial ResidentialServices Existing Mining New Mining Load New Large Industrial
Total Zambian Electricity Demand Forecast for Adjusted Base Case
Zambia Electricity DemandZambia Electricity Demand
17,245
19,049
19,792
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
GW
h
Total Zambian consumption Bulk supply Net Energy Generation
Total Zambian Electricity Demand Forecast for Adjusted Base Case
Zambia Electricity DemandZambia Electricity Demand
5,898
4,232
2,329
3,710
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
MW
High Base
Low Adjusted Base
Total Zambian Peak Power Demand Forecast
Export Electricity DemandExport Electricity Demand
� Southern African Power Pool (SAPP)
� Potential export markets
� Namibia
� Malawi
� South Africa
� Zimbabwe
� Other neighboring countries also evaluated
Zambia and Southern Africa Power Pool TransmissionZambia and Southern Africa Power Pool Transmission
Zambia and Southern Africa Power Pool TransmissionZambia and Southern Africa Power Pool Transmission
Zambia and Southern Africa Power Pool TransmissionZambia and Southern Africa Power Pool Transmission
� ZESCO owns 330-kV transmission network running as a
backbone form the South to the Northwestern part of the
country.
� 220-kV and 132-kV branches
� Southern African Power Pool (SAPP) upgrades
� Kafue town and Livingstone
� Livingstone to Katima Mulilo
� Katima Mulilo into the Namibian network
Installed Capacity StudyInstalled Capacity Study
Hourly loads observed in a typical week for the year 2007
were extrapolated to model the peak week for the years
2016 and 2025.
KGL as 100% base-load plant in 2016 (450 to 600 MW)
�Dispatch of 278 MW in 24 hours
�506 MW of peak power available for export (4 hours a day)
�57 MW of base-load power available for export
KGL as peaking plant in 2016 (600 to 900 MW)
�Base of 199 MW in 24 hours to a peak of 513 MW
�915 MW of peak power available for export (4 hours a day)
Operation of KGL into Zambian SystemOperation of KGL into Zambian System
506
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
6/11 6/12 6/13 6/14 6/15 6/16 6/17
Day
Gen
erat
ion
(M
W)
-3,000
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
-
500
1,000
Exp
ort
(M
W)
Kariba +Extension
KGU
ITT
OtherProposed
KGL
Other Existing
V/FALLS
Export
ExcessBaseload
DomesticPeakShortage2016 ScaledLoad
Installed CapacityInstalled Capacity
KGL can be used for regulating flow releases downstream of
KGU
A benefit-cost analysis was performed between four
alternative capacity configurations: 450, 600, 750 and 900
MW
The optimum development would be between 600 and 750
MW
Zambia Least Cost Capacity ExpansionZambia Least Cost Capacity Expansion
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
MW
Year
Thermal Capacity KGL Capacity
Kariba Expansion Capacity ITT Capacity
Subtotal Mul. Kal. & Kab. Existing Zambian Hydro Generation
System Peak Adjusted Base Case System Required Capacity Adjusted Base Case
Peak and Required Capacity versus Zambian Hydro and Thermal Installed Capacity
Zambia Least Cost Capacity ExpansionZambia Least Cost Capacity Expansion
� Hydropower Plants
� Zambezi River Basin: Mpata Gorge, Devil’s Gorge, Batoka Gorge
� Kafue River Basin: Kafue Gorge Lower (subject of this study)
� Luapula River Basin: Mumbotuta Gorge and MambilimaFalls
� Luangwa River Basin: Lusiwasi extension
� Thermal Power Plants
Zambia Least Cost Capacity ExpansionZambia Least Cost Capacity Expansion
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Capacity Factor
Usc
/kW
h
Coal-fired plant
Reciprocating Engine
Gas Turbine
Batoka
KGL 600-MW Base
KGL 600-MW Peak
KGL 750-MW Peak
Devil's Gorge
Luapula
Mpata
Screening Curves for Various Thermal and Hydro Options
OutlineOutline
� Zambia Electricity Demand
� Export Electricity Demand
� Zambia and Southern Africa Power Pool Transmission
� Installed Capacity
� Zambia Least Cost Expansion
� Hydrology
� Site selection
� Geology
� Project Description
� Construction Schedule and Costs
HydrologyHydrology
HydrologyHydrology
HydrologyHydrology
Climate
April – August (winter) Cool and dry
September – October (pre-rainy) Hot and dry
November – January (rainy) Hot and wet
February – March (post-rainy) Cool and wet
Flow data
The Kafue Gorge Upper daily flow data was used
Evaporation
Annual reservoir evaporation = 1,234 mm
HydrologyHydrology
Design flood
� Sufficient historic meteorological are not available.
� The flood peaks at the project site may lag by two to three
months from the occurrence of heavy rainfall.
� Physical nature of the basin does not allow reasonable
estimates of unit hydrographs to convert rainfall to runoff
hydrographs.
� A statistical approach was used to determine a flood of
10,000 year recurrence interval.
� A 10,000 year flood peak of 5,200 m3/s was used for the
KGL project.
Site SelectionSite Selection
GeologyGeology
� The KGL project is located in the physiographic region of
Zambia known as the Zambezi escarpment.
� Suitable foundation quality rock
� Limited site specific information for the underground
structures
� Strong and stable conditions are expected for underground
structures
� Orientation of underground arrangement
GeologyGeology
Construction materials are generally available within
reasonable distances from the site, with the exception of sand
for concrete.
• Materials for cofferdams;
• Concrete aggregates;
• Backfill material for retaining walls and other structural fills;
• Rock for riprap and slope protection; and
• Materials for access road construction
Project DescriptionProject Description
Project DescriptionProject Description
SegmentTunnel Lining
Approx. Length(m)
Inside Diameter
(m)
Velocity(m/s)
Headrace Tunnel
Concrete 180 4,8 5,4
Power Shaft
Concrete 150 4,8 5,4
Power Tunnel
Concrete 82 4,8 5,4
Power Tunnel
Steel 60 3,9 8,2
Tailrace Tunnel
Concrete 4,600 14,6 2,9
Waterway Data
Project DescriptionProject Description
Project DescriptionProject Description
Project DescriptionProject Description
Type of units Francis
Number of units 4 initial + 1 future
Rotational speed 300 rpm
Nominal power output, each unit 150 MW
Nominal discharge, each unit 97.4 m3/s
Gross head 182.7 m
Rated head 173.3 m
Rated power 156.4 MW
Main transformers 171 MVA, 50 Hz
Major Mechanical and Electrical Equipment
Construction Schedule and CostsConstruction Schedule and Costs
Before construction of the project begins, various important
tasks must be performed, including:
�Additional site-specific field and laboratory investigations
required for detailed design;
�Model-testing of the spillway;
�Site access and site preparatory work
60 months construction duration
Total Project Cost US$ 1,374 Million (2010 base date)
ConclusionConclusion
ConclusionConclusion
• Moreover, KGL has been consistently recommended as a
competent candidate project in the recent least cost expansion
plans carried out in SAPP level.
• Ongoing and proposed improvements of transmission lines joining
SAPP member countries should be able to facilitate wheeling of
the power in excess of Zambian consumption to the regional
export market.
Janus BassonBKS (PTY) LTD+27 12 421 [email protected]
Hydropower Africa 2010, August 18, 2010
Thank you for your attention
Bruno TrouilleMWH, USA+1 312 831 [email protected]