Fed Horserace News RForum Research poll: Voter support in federal electionelease (2014 08 20) Forum Research

8/11/2019 Fed Horserace News RForum Research poll: Voter support in federal electionelease (2014 08 20) Forum Research

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180 Bloor Street W., #1400Toronto, ON M5S 2V6 T 416.960.9600 F 416.960.9602 forumresearch.com 1

MEDIA INQUIRIES:Lorne Bozinoff, President

[email protected]

416.960.9603

TORONTOAugust 20 th , 2014

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Liberal lead tightens Liberal minority now seen

TORONTO AUGUST 20 th , 2014 In a random sampling of public opinion taken by the Forum Poll among 1798 Canadian voters, just more than 4in10 will vote Liberal in the next election (41%), giving the party a nine point lead over the Conservatives (32%). This is in comparison to last month at this time when the spread was sixteen points (July 19, 2014 Liberals 44%, Conservatives 28%). In the meantime, the

NDP has stayed stable at under one fifth of the vote (July 18%, today 17%). One twentieth will vote Bloc Quebecois or Green Party (5% each) and very few will vote for another party (1%). Support for the Liberals is common across age, gender and income demographics, with the exception of the youngest (32%).

The Liberal vote is strong in Atlantic Canada (55%) and Ontario (46%), among the best educated (post grad 50%) and non Christians (48%).

The Conservative vote is common to the oldest (39%), males (36%), mid income groups ($60K to $80K 36%), in the prairies (36%) and especially Alberta (58%), Protestant (49%) and Evangelical Christians (63%), and Anglophones (36%).

The New Democrat vote is common to younger voters (under 45 20%), females

(20%), the least wealthy (20%), in Quebec (26%) and BC (24%), college graduates (20%), Catholics (22%), the non religious (22%), mothers of children (24%) and Francophones (28%)

Of note, one third of past NDP voters (33%) and one fifth of past Conservative voters (20%) will support the Liberals this time. In contrast, the vast majority of past Liberal voters will vote Liberal again this time (85%), compared to three quarters of past Conservative voters (72%) and just more than half of past New Democrats (55%).

Liberal minority seen

If these poll results are projected up to seats in a 308 seat House of Commons, the

Liberals would capture 142, thirteen short of a majority. The Conservatives would take 110 seats, the NDP 51, the Bloc 4 and Elizabeth May would retain the Green Party's only elected seat.

HIGHLIGHTS:

Just more than 4in10 will vote Liberal in the next election (41%), giving the

party a nine

point

lead

over

the Conservatives (32%).

Of note, one third of past NDP voters (33%) and one fifth of past Conservative voters (20%) will support the Liberals this time.

If these poll results are projected up to seats in a 308seat House of Commons, the Liberals would capture 142, thirteen short of a majority. The Conservatives would take 110 seats, the NDP 51, the Bloc 4 and Elizabeth May would retain the Green Party's only elected seat.

Justin Trudeau has the approval of one half of Canadian voters (48%), up slightly from last month (46%).


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Mulcair's favourables down, Trudeau's, Harper's edge up

Justin Trudeau has the approval of one half of Canadian voters (48%), up slightly from last month (46%), and his net favourable score (approve minus disapprove) is a healthy +13, up from +9. Prime Minister Harper's approval is up slightly as well (from 33% to 35%), and his net has improved from 25 to 19. Thomas Mulcair, on the other hand, has seen his approval decline from last month (40% to 37%) and his net score is +7. Trudeau maintains slight edge for best PM

At just more than 3in10, Justin Trudeau has a very slim lead (as he had last month) in the best PM stakes (31%), while the Prime Minister has just less than this score (29%), as he did last month (27%). One seventh give Tom Mulcair the nod (15%), one tenth select Elizabeth May (8%) and one fifth have no opinion (18%).

"We are uncertain what has caused this dip in Liberal fortunes, but it may be connected to world events, where the Prime Minister has been claiming the stage with some very tough performances, which can be difficult for a candidate who is not in government to challenge. It should be noted, however, that both Harper and Trudeau poll at about the same favourability as their parties, whereas Tom Mulcair exceeds his party's score by a factor of two. In this case, he's proven unable to drag the party up to his own level of popularity, which is what Jack Layton essentially did to ignite the Orange Crush," said Forum Research President, Dr. Lorne Bozinoff.

Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. is the president and founder of Forum Research. He can be reached at [email protected] or at (416) 960 9603.

HIGHLIGHTS:

At just more than 3in10, Justin Trudeau has a very slim lead in the best PM

stakes (31%), while the PrimeMinister has just less than this score (29%).

"We are uncertain what has caused this dip in Liberal fortunes, but it may be connected to world events, where the Prime Minister hasbeen claiming the stage with some very tough performances, which can be

difficult for a candidate who is not in government to challenge. It should be noted,however, that both Harper and Trudeau poll at about the same favourability as their parties, whereas Tom Mulcair exceeds his party's score by a factor of two. In this case, he's proven unable to drag the party up to his own level of popularity, which is what Jack Layton essentially did to ignite the Orange Crush," said Forum Research President, Dr. LorneBozinoff.


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Methodology

The Forum Poll was conducted by Forum Research with the results based on an interactive voice response telephone survey of 1798 randomly selected Torontonians 18 years of age and older. The poll was conducted on August 1819 th , 2014.

Results based on the total sample are considered accurate 2%, 19 times out of 20. Subsample results will be less accurate. Margins of error for subsample (such as age, gender) results are available at www.forumresearch.com/samplestim.asp

Where appropriate, the data has been statistically weighted by age, region, and other variables to ensure that the sample reflects the actual population according to the latest Census data.

This research is not necessarily predictive of future outcomes, but rather, captures opinion at one point in time. Forum Research conducted this poll as a public service and to demonstrate our survey research capabilities. Forum houses its poll results in the Data Library of the Department of Political Science at the University of Toronto.

With offices across Canada and around the world, 100% Canadian owned Forum Research is one of the countrys leading survey research firms. This Forum Polland other polls may be found at Forum's poll archive

at www.forumresearch.com/polls.asp


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41

32

17

510

10

20

30

40

50

Federal Vote Preference (%)[Decided / Leaning]

Lib

Cons

NDP

GreenBloc

Other


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Federal Party Preference Trending

[Decided/Leaning]

% Sample Cons Lib NDP Green Bloc Other August 18 19 th , 2014 1798 32 41 17 5 5 1 July 18 th , 2014 1624 28 44 18 3 5 1 June 16 17 th , 2014 1683 31 39 19 5 4 1 May 22 nd , 2014 1694 30 36 23 5 6 1 Apr 29 th , 2014 1572 30 39 20 4 6 1 Mar 25 28 th , 2014 1764 29 39 22 3 5 1 Feb. 18 19 th , 2014 1824 29 39 21 4 6 1 Jan. 23 24 th , 2014 1228 28 38 24 4 5 1 Jan. 17 th , 2014 1779 28 37 25 4 5 1 Dec. 12 13 th , 2013 1634 32 38 21 3 5 1 Nov. 12 13 th , 2013 1834 29 38 22 4 6 1 Oct. 23 rd , 2013 1007 28 40 20 5 6 1 Oct. 21 22 nd , 2013 1859 30 39 19 5 7 1 Sept 16 17 th , 2013 1527 31 36 21 4 7 1 August 24 th , 2013 1145 29 38 22 4 6 1 July 23 rd , 2013 1501 31 35 22 4 7 1 June 19 th . 2013 1420 30 38 20 4 6 0 May 21 st 22 nd , 2013 1709 27 44 20 3 4 1 April 15 th , 2013 1764 30 43 19 2 5 1 April 2nd , 2013 1269 29 33 25 6 5 1 March 6th 7 th , 2013 1663 31 30 27 5 6 1 Feb 6th , 2013 1051 32 30 26 4 6 1 Jan 16 th 17 th , 2013 1555 36 25 28 4 7 1 Dec 18 th , 2012 1296 31 27 28 6 6 1 Nov 19 th , 2012 1776 33 28 28 4 6 1 Oct 27 th , 2012 1680 31 27 32 4 6 1 Sep 27 th , 2012 1692 35 25 30 3 6 1 Aug 22 nd , 2012 1640 34 22 34 4 6 1 Jul 25 th 26 th , 2012 1545 31 22 35 5 6 1 Jun 27 th , 2012 1114 35 19 35 3 6 1

Jun 14 th , 2012 1482 30 22 37 5 6 1 May 23 rd , 2012 1756 32 20 36 6 5 1 Apr 24 th , 2012 1669 33 22 36 2 6 1 Mar 30 th , 2012 1591 36 19 34 5 5 1 Mar 26 th 27 th , 2012 1565 35 19 35 3 7 1 Mar 2nd 3rd , 2012 1603 37 25 28 4 5 1 Feb 6th , 2012 1148 36 26 28 3 6 1 Federal Election May 2nd , 2011 n/a

40 19 31 4 6 0


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Seat Distribution Projection Trending

% Cons Lib NDP Green Bloc Other August 18 19 th , 2014 110 142 51 1 4 0 July 18 th , 2014 84 192 30 1 1 0 June 16 17 th , 2014 109 142 53 1 3 0 May 22 nd , 2014 111 110 75 1 11 0 Apr 29 th , 2014 100 158 39 1 10 0 Mar 25 28 th , 2014 99 159 40 1 9 0 Feb. 18 19 th , 2014 100 134 51 1 22 0 Jan. 23 24 th , 2014 104 132 65 1 6 0

Jan. 17 th , 2013 111 130 61 1 5 0 Dec. 12 13 th , 2013 110 147 48 1 2 0 Nov. 12 13 th , 2013 108 134 53 1 12 0 Oct. 23 rd , 2013 104 146 47 1 10 0 Oct. 21 22 nd , 2013 106 147 33 1 21 0 Sept 16 17 th , 2013 121 102 45 1 39 0 August 24 th , 2013 107 127 63 1 10 0 July 23 rd , 2013 129 120 44 1 14 0 June 19 th . 2013 113 150 39 1 5 0 May 21 st , 2013 77 192 37 1 1 0 April 15 th , 2013 99 170 35 1 3 0 April 2nd , 2013 119 117 65 1 6 0

March 6th

7th

, 2013 125 88 76 1 18 0 Feb 6th, 2013 129 86 81 1 11 0 Jan 16 th 17 th , 2013 144 68 73 1 22 0 Dec 18 th , 2012 129 77 77 1 24 0 Nov 19 th , 2012 138 83 76 1 10 0 Oct 27 th , 2012 122 76 101 1 8 0 Sep 27 th , 2012 142 66 87 1 12 0 Aug 22 nd , 2012 140 46 114 1 7 0 July 25 th 26 th , 2012 114 58 128 1 7 0 June 27 th , 2012 144 32 127 1 4 0 June 14 th , 2012 114 53 136 1 4 0 May 23 rd , 2012 123 42 138 1 4 0

Apr 24th

, 2012 118 54 133 1 2 0 Mar 30 th , 2012 142 36 126 1 3 0 Mar 26 th 27 th , 2012 151 25 120 1 11 0 Mar 2nd 3rd , 2012 145 69 78 1 15 0 Feb 6th , 2012 151 60 88 1 8 0 Federal Election May 2nd , 2011 166 34 103 1 4 0


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Federal Leader Approval Rating Trending (% Approve)

[All Respondents]

% Sample Trudeau Harper Mulcair August 18 19 th , 2014 1798 48 35 37 July 18 th , 2014 1624 46 33 40 June 16 17 th , 2014 1683 43 34 38 May 22 nd , 2014 1694 43 33 43 Apr 29 th , 2014 1572 46 31 44 Mar 25 28 th , 2014 1764 44 33 37

Feb. 18 19th

, 2014 1824 47 31 42 Jan. 23 24 th , 2014 1228 43 29 42 Jan. 17 th , 2014 1779 45 30 44 Dec. 12 13 th , 2013 1634 49 32 44 Nov. 12 13 th , 2013 1834 46 31 41 Oct. 23 rd , 2013 1007 49 34 41 Oct 21 22 nd , 2013 1859 47 31 36 Sept 16 17 th , 2013 1527 48 32 36 August 24 th , 2013 1189 49 30 37 July 23 rd , 2013 1782 44 31 33 June 19 th . 2013 1525 47 33 35 May 21 st , 2013 1779 49 29 36

April 15

th

, 2013

1764

46

32

35

Rae

April 2nd , 2013 1310 40 31 35 March 6th 7 th , 2013 1755 34 34 35 Feb 6th, 2013 1091 34 33 38 Jan 16 th 17 th , 2013 1626 32 38 37 Dec 18 th , 2012 1355 39 35 39 Nov 19 th , 2012 1849 35 36 33 Oct 27 th , 2012 1735 34 36 38 Sep 27 th , 2012 1758 31 39 37 Aug 22 nd , 2012 1720 32 36 41 July 25 th 26 th , 2012 1639 34 32 36 June 27 th , 2012 1165 36 35 39 June 14 th , 2012 1529 40 31 39 May 23 rd , 2012 1836 33 33 41 Apr 24 th , 2012 1669 35 34 41 Mar 30th, 2012 1675 36 34 32 Mar 26th 27th, 2012 1638 32 34 32 April 24 25 th , 2012 1744 46 22 30


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Best Prime Minister

% Sample Harper Trudeau Mulcair May Dont Know August 18 19 th , 2014 1798 29 31 15 8 18 July 18 th , 2014 1624 27 30 16 7 20 June 16 17 th , 2014 1683 28 27 16 8 21 May 22 nd , 2014 1694 26 28 17 8 21 Apr 29 th , 2014 1572 25 30 17 10 18 Mar 25 28 th , 2014 1764 27 29 17 8 19 Feb. 18 19 th , 2014 1824 26 33 16 8 19 Jan. 23 24 th , 2014 1228 24 29 18 7 22 Jan. 17 th , 2014 1779 25 29 19 7 20


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Federal Vote Preference

If a federal election were held today, which party are you most likely to vote for?+ Even though you may not have made up your mind, which party are you leaning towards at this time?

[Decided/Leaning]

Age / Gender % Total 18 34 35 44 45 54 55 64 65+ Male Female

Sample 1718 113 163 320 474 648 851 867 Conservative 32 30 30 26 32 39 36 28 Liberal 41 32 39 45 41 43 40 41 New Democratic 17 20 20 21 15 12 14 20 Green 5 10 6 3 5 2 4 5 Bloc Quebecois 5 7 4 4 5 3 5 5 Other 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1

Region / Language % Total Atl Que ON Man/Sask AB BC English French

Sample 1718 123 422 602 133 182 256 1342 376 Conservative 32 21 15 38 36 58 31 36 16 Liberal 41 55 37 46 39 28 33 43 32 New Democratic 17 18 26 11 18 10 24 14 28 Green 5 6 3 5 5 3 10 5 3 Bloc Quebecois 5 0 18 0 0 0 0 0 20 Other 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 0

Past Federal Vote % Total Conservative Liberal NDP Green Bloc Other Parties

Sample 1718 619 394 322 69 92 94 Conservative 32 72 7 3 12 8 20 Liberal 41 20 85 33 39 16 34 New Democratic 17 5 5 55 7 12 19

Green

5

2

2

7

40

1

13

Bloc Quebecois 5 0 0 2 0 63 9 Other 1 1 1 0 1 0 5


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Approval of Stephen Harper

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Stephen Harper is doing as Prime Minister?

[All Respondents]


Sample 1798 121 172 336 491 678 878 920

Approve 35 37 31 33 34 42 40 31 Disapprove 55 49 58 61 59 48 54 55 Dont know 10 14 11 6 7 10 7 13


Sample 1798 132 440 626 144 190 266 1408 390 Approve 35 17 25 43 40 50 31 38 24 Disapprove 55 68 68 45 53 39 63 51 68 Dont know 10 14 7 12 8 12 6 11 8

Federal Vote Preference % Total Cons Lib NDP Green Bloc Other Parties

Sample 1798 542 649 274 110 74 69 Approve 35 87 17 11 20 8 31 Disapprove 55 8 73 80 73 87 49 Dont know 10 5 10 10 7 4 20

Education

% Total Secondary

school or less Some college or

university Completed college

or university Post graduate

studies Sample 1798 435 482 591 290 Approve 35 42 34 34 33 Disapprove 55 46 55 60 54 Dont

know 10

12

11

7

12


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Religion

% Total Christia

n Protestant Christian

Evangelical Christian

Catholic

Other Christia

n

Non Christia

n

None

Sample 1798 1292 471 66 620 135 96 410 Approve 35 41 46 76 32 48 49 19 Disapprove 55

49 45 22 57 41 46 70

Dont know 10

10 9 1 11 11 5 12


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Approval of Justin Trudeau

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Justin Trudeau is doing as leader of the Liberal Party?

[All Respondents]


Sample 1798 121 172 336 491 678 878 920

Approve 48 48 51 49 46 43 48 47 Disapprove 35 29 37 33 38 42 39 31 Dont know 17 23 12 17 16 15 13 22


Sample 1798 132 440 626 144 190 266 1408 390 Approve 48 62 48 49 40 37 48 48 46 Disapprove 35 17 32 36 43 46 36 35 35 Dont know 17 21 20 15 17 17 17 17 19


Sample 1798 542 649 274 110 74 69 Approve 48 18 84 40 56 17 23 Disapprove 35 69 7 34 25 64 53 Dont know 17 13 9 26 19 19 24

Education

% Total Secondary




studies Sample 1798 435 482 591 290 Approve 48 40 44 51 57 Disapprove 35 39 34 34 33 Dont know 17

21 22 15 11


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Religion

% Total Christia

n Protestant Christian

Evangelical Christian

Catholic

Other Christia

n

Non Christia

n

None

Sample 1798 1292 471 66 620 135 96 410 Approve 48 43 41 24 49 33 72 52 Disapprove 35

40 43 60 35 48 20 26

Dont know 17

17 16 16 17 19 8 21


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Prime Minister Preference

Who would make the best Prime Minister?

[All Respondents]


Sample 1798 121 172 336 491 678 878 920 Stephen Harper 29 28 22 28 30 38 34 24

Tom Mulcair 15 10 20 16 14 14 15 15 Justin Trudeau 31 32 30 32 31 28 31 30 Elizabeth May 8 10 9 6 9 6 7 9 Don't know 18 20 20 18 17 14 13 22


Sample 1798 132 440 626 144 190 266 1408 390 Stephen Harper 29 9 18 33 37 49 29 32 15 Tom Mulcair 15 11 33 7 9 7 15 8 38 Justin Trudeau 31 51 26 35 23 25 23 32 23 Elizabeth May 8 5 6 10 6 4 13 9 5

Don't know 18 23 18 15 24 16 21 18 17


Sample 1798 542 649 274 110 74 69 Stephen Harper 29 86 6 8 3 6 17 Tom Mulcair 15 3 7 52 7 42 4 Justin Trudeau 31 6 71 12 20 14 5 Elizabeth May 8 2 4 10 44 8 12 Don't know 18 3 12 18 26 30 63


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Education

% Total Secondary




studies Sample 1798 435 482 591 290 Stephen Harper 29

29 29 29 27

Tom Mulcair 15

11 10 21 13

Justin Trudeau 31

30 31 29 35

Elizabeth

May 8 10 9 6 9

Don't know 18 20 22 15 16

Religion

% Total Christian Protestant

Christian Evangelical

Christian Catholic Other

Christian Non

Christian None

Sample 1798 1292 471 66 620 135 96 410 Stephen Harper 29

36 42 64 26 47 21 14

Tom Mulcair 15

15 6 8 23 7 7 17

Justin Trudeau 31

29 32 21 30 19 41 32

Elizabeth May 8

6 6 3 6 6 21 10

Don't know 18

15 14 4 15 21 9 27

For more information: Lorne Bozinoff, Ph.D. President Forum Research Inc. Tel: (416) 960 9603

Fax:

(416) 960

9602

Email: [email protected]

Documents

Fed Horserace News RForum Research poll: Voter support in federal electionelease (2014 08 20) Forum Research