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FEDERAL CHAMBER OF AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRIES. Tm Reardon: Director Government Policy Global Fuel Economy Initiative 2 March 2011. Bad Data = Bad Policy. Good Data = Good Policy. Source: SAPERE Research Group . Flawed International Comparisons. International Comparisons. 2009 CO2 Outcomes: - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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FEDERAL CHAMBER OF AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRIES
Tm Reardon: Director Government PolicyGlobal Fuel Economy Initiative2 March 2011
BAD DATA = BAD POLICY
GOOD DATA = GOOD POLICY
SOURCE: SAPERE RESEARCH GROUP
FLAWED INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS
INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS2009 CO2 Outcomes:
• UK= 149 Grams of CO2/km
• Australia 219 Grams of CO2/km
• Adjusted for:• Market Segment: 199 Grams CO2• Fuel Type: 175 Grams of CO2• Vehicle Size: 156 Grams of CO2• Other factors:
• Auto Transmissions• Fuel Quality
AUSTRALIAN POLICY FRAMEWORK24 July 2010, Election Commitment:
• Mandatory CO2 Target.
27 January 2011, PM announced:• Abolition of the CCR.• Capping of the LPG Vehicle Scheme.• Abolition of the GCIF.
24 February 2011, PM announced:• A carbon price from 1 July 2012.• Transportation fuels incorporated.
Reducing CO2 Emissions from Motor
Vehicles
Vehicle CO2 Emissions Standard
Green Car Innovation Fund
Fuel Excise
Luxury Car Tax
Congestion Pricing
Fringe Benefits Tax
MOTOR VEHICLE CO2 EMISSIONS: POLICY ELEMENTS
Carbon Price (ETS, Carbon tax)
BELT OR BRACES
Carbon Price Vs Carbon Standard:
• A carbon price can efficiently determine the least cost method of emissions abatement.
• Secondary emission strategies, such as Mandatory Standards, assume that a reduction of one tonne of C02 from a passenger motor vehicle is more important than a reduction of one tonne of C02 from any other sector of the economy.
NEW VEHICLE FUEL EFFICIENCY
1. History of PMV CO2 Emissions2. Forecast CO2 Emissions3. CO2 Price and/or CO2 Standard4. Design Options for a Standard5. Taxation Issues
NAFC/NACE TARGETS
1983 = 9.5 Litres/100km1990 = 9.0 Litres/100km2000 = 8.2 Litres/100km20?? = 6.8 Litres/100km2010 = 222 Grams of CO2
FUEL CONSUMPTION TARGETS AND RESULTS (PETROL PASSENGER ONLY
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
6
6.5
7
7.5
8
8.5
9
9.5
10
10.5
11
Litre
s pe
r 100
km
8.2 l/100km
9.0 l/100km
9.5 l/100km
NATIONAL AVERAGE FUEL CONSUMPTION 2010 TARGET
2010 Target = 222 grams of CO2• All Fuel Types.• All vehicles under 3.5 tonne.• 2010 outcome = 212.6 grams
of CO2.
HISTORICAL FUEL CONSUMPTION AND CO2 EMISSIONS
19781980
19821984
19861988
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
20106
7
8
9
10
11
12
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
340
Average Fuel Consumption: Petrol Passenger
Average CO2: All Fuel Types
Litr
es/1
00km
Gra
ms
CO2/
km
CHANGE IN NACE: SEGMENT CHANGE VS VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY (INCLUDING FUEL)
2007 2008 2009 20100.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0G
ram
s CO
2/KM
MARKET SEGMENTS BY MARKET SHARE
Total Passenger Total SUV Total LCV0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
VEHICLE TYPE BY MARKET SHARE
Light
Small
Medium Lar
ge
Upper
Large
People
Movers
Sports
SUV Com
pact
SUV Med
ium
SUV La
rge
SUV Lu
xury
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
FUEL TYPES BY MARKET SHARE
Petrol Diesel Hybrid0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
TARGET ACHIEVED, WHAT NEXT?
July 2010: • Mandatory NACE Target• 2015 = 190 grams of CO2• 2024 = 155 grams of CO2
TECHNOLOGY DERIVED EMISSIONS SAVINGS
2.9%
1.3%
0.5%
2.5%
0.8%
2.0%
1.0%
1.7%
1.0%
0.8%0.8%
1.3%
0.8%
2.0%
1.0%
0.4%
1.7%
0.1%
0.3%
0.0%
1.0%
0.0%0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2008-2015 2008-2020
MARKET SEGMENT CHANGES
0.0%
11.5%
5.7%3.7%
1.4%
6.8%
14.2%
56.7%
0.0%0.5%
10.8%
6.1%
13.8%
1.3%3.0%
6.0%
13.2%
45.3%
3.0%
11.2%
6.4%
14.4%
1.3%
7.0%
11.8%
39.3%
5.6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2008 2015 2020
EFFICIENCY GAINS V MASS INCREASES
1%
-0.7%
Technology improvements:• Lightweighting• Aerodynamics• Reduced mechanical friction• Low friction tyres
Weight gains• Safety• Emissions• Noise• Quality• Comfort
PROJECTED CO2 EMISSIONS: NACE
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
202.1 (9.1%)
189.4 (14.8%)
222.4
194.6 (12.5%)
176.1 (20.8%)
No change in market segments Applying market segment projections
CO2 TARGETS: ECONOMY WIDE TARGETSAustralian Government target of 5% to 25% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2020 based on 2000 levels.
• 2000 = 260 g/CO2
25% reduction
• 2020 = 195 g/CO2
CO2 EMISSIONS COMPARISON: EUROPE AND AUSTRALIA
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 201670
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
European % CO2 Reduction
Australian % CO2 Reduction
FLEXIBILITIES
• Credits for:1. Low emission vehicles2. Eco-technologies3. Alternative fuels
• Phase-In from 2015
• Averaging and Pooling
• Make Good Provision (Banking/Borrowing)
OPTIONS FOR BURDEN SHARING
1. Industry Target.
2. Vehicle based approach: Standard set which vehicle must achieve in order to enter the Australian market.
3. Corporate Average: Each brand provided a target CACE:• All brands to achieve 195 grams.• Uniform Percentage Reduction.• Parameter based target.
UNIFORM PERCENTAGE REDUCTION
0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5180
200
220
240
260
280
300
2005200620092015 (2005 base)2015 (2006 base)
Gra
ms
CO2
Ford
Jaguar
Kia
CORPORATE SPECIFIC MASS TARGET
800 1300 1800 2300 2800 330080
130
180
230
280
330
380
430
480
Mass Kgs
CO2
gram
s/km
29
Reducing CO2 emissions – – integrated approach
An integrated approach
Delivering majority of new car CO2 reductions
Sustainable productionReducing congestion
Influencing demand in a harmonised way
FBT: KILOMETRES TRAVELED
FBT: REVENUE ESTIMATES
LUXURY CAR TAX: INCREASING INCIDENCE
1979 2003 2007 2010
2.5
6.58 9
16.518.5 19
27
2.5
911
14
Passenger Cars SUV's Total PMV & SUV
AUSTRALIA’S TOP SELLING LUXURY CARS
Rank Model Group Sales 1 Toyota Prado 15,4232 Toyota Landcruiser Wagon 7,2733 Holden Commodore 6,7494 Mercedes-Benz C-Class 6,6585 Mitsubishi Pajero 5,0656 BMW 3 Series 4,9437 BMW X5 3,1058 Toyota Kluger 2,7319 Audi A4 2,65210 Mercedes-Benz M-Class 2,589
CORPORATE SPECIFIC MASS TARGET
800 1300 1800 2300 2800 330080
130
180
230
280
330
380
430
480
Mass Kgs
CO2
gram
s/km
CO2 STANDARD : SUMMARY
1. Developed Co-operatively with Industry.2. Based on reliable data.3. Recognition of Non-test cycle
technologies:• Alternative Fuels.• GSI, TPM, Air-con gases, Etc.• Incentives for emerging technologies.
4. Realistic target consistent with economy wide objectives.
FEDERAL CHAMBER OF AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRIES
Global Fuel Economy Initiative2 March 2011