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Federal R&D Budget: Context and Current State of Play
Matt HourihanSeptember 27, 2014for the National Association of Graduate-Professional Students
AAAS R&D Budget and Policy Programhttp://www.aaas.org/program/rd-budget-and-policy-program
Why Does the Federal R&D Budget Matter?
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National R&D by FunderExpenditures in billions, FY 2014 dollars
Other
Industry
Federal
Source: Source: National Science Foundation, National Patterns of R&D Resources series. Constant-dollar conversions based on GDP deflators from Budget of the U.S. Government FY 2015. © 2014 AAAS
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National R&D by FunderShare of total expenditures
Other
Industry
Federal
Source: Source: National Science Foundation, National Patterns of R&D Resources series. Constant-dollar conversions based on GDP deflators from Budget of the U.S. Government FY 2015. © 2014 AAAS
Federal Industry Other$0
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$250
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Character of R&D By Funder, 2011Expenditures in billions of dollars
Development
AppliedResearch
Basic Research
Source: NSF, National Patterns of R&D Resources survey. © 2014 AAAS
Interaction Between Public and Industrial R&D
Industrial R&D projects often draw on public research findings, instruments, techniques
Many industry operatives place high value on info about public research
Fair evidence for public research as complement to/inducer of private R&D and innovation
Workforce, networks, spillovers
Some sources: Cohen, Nelson, Walsh, Management Science, Vol. 48, No. 1, Jan. 2002; Salter and Martin, Research Policy, Vol. 30, No. 3, March 2001; Toole, Research Policy, Vol. 41, No 1, Feb. 2012; Blume-Kohout, Journal of Policy Analysis and Mgmt, Vol 31, No. 3, Summer 2012
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University R&D Funding by Sourceexpenditures in billions, FY 2014 dollars
Other Sources
InstitutionalFunds
Industry
State and Local
Federal
Source: NSF, Higher Education R&D survey series. Includes Recovery Act funding. © 2014 AAAS
Recent (and Not-So-Recent) History
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Federal R&D in the Budget and the EconomyOutlays as share of total, 1962 - 2015
R&D as a Shareof the FederalBudget (LeftScale)
R&D as a Shareof GDP (RightScale)
Source: Budget of the United States Government, FY 2015. FY 2015 is the President's request. © 2014 AAAS
There is no actual R&D budget and only limited coordination of “the R&D budget”
We don’t know what funding levels are optimal
“Politics is who gets what, when, and how.” - Harold Lasswell
“Budgeting is about values, and it’s about choices.” – Rep. Rosa DeLauro
BCA takes effect: first year of caps
Sequestration kicks in (delayed and reduced by the American Taxpayer Relief Act)
Yearlong budget warfare resolved by Bipartisan Budget Act (restores some funding in FY14, sets table for FY15)
Current Year: Where Are We? Some discretionary funding restored
but this only keeps things flat
President’s budget released in March Flat funding overall Limited prioritization (low-carbon energy,
neuroscience, advanced manufacturing, high-speed rail, NASA industry partnerships, extramural ag research)
Extra funding proposed & ignored
House: 7 of 12 bills passed; Senate: none
60%
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100%
110%
120%
Dept. ofDefense S&T
Commerce,Justice,Science
Energy &Water
Agriculture Interior andEnvironment
Labor, HHS,Education*
FY 2015 R&D Appropriations by Select Spending BillEstimated funding as a percent of FY 2012, in constant dollars
2012 2013 2014 2015 Request 2015 House 2015 Senate
*Not yet introduced in House.FY 2012 = 100%. Source: AAAS analyses of agency budget documents and appropriations bills and reports. FY 2014 figures are current estimates. R&D includes conduct of R&D and R&D facilities. © 2014 AAAS
Agency Notes DOE: differing takes on ITER, climate research,
renewables and efficiency v. fossil fuels
NASA: Appropriations way above request; varying numbers in many places (Earth, Planetary, Astro, Aero); exploration funding?
NSF: Social and geo targeted
NOAA climate research cut in House; boosts for NIST labs
Biodefense facility funding for DHS
Looking Ahead
Continuing resolution
Lame duck omnibus?
FY 2016 and beyond – back to “post-sequester” levels
What it all means: very tight fiscal room, broad-based growth unlikely But growth in targeted programs?
$55
$60
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Federal Nondefense R&D Under Various Scenariosbillions of constant 2014 dollars
Original BCA/ATRA Caps Actual Spending Recovery Act
Post-Sequestration Ryan/Murray Deal Changes President's Request
Source: AAAS R&D reports and analyses of agency and legislative documents. Adjusted for inflation using deflators from the FY 2015 request. R&D includes conduct of R&D and R&D facilities. © AAAS 2014
For more info…
202-326-6607http://
www.aaas.org/program/rd-budget-and-policy-program