Upload
others
View
86
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Bricad Associates
FIDIC-EFCA Survey
FIDIC-EFCA Consulting
Engineering Industry Survey
Total demand (market - non-market; private - public)
Europe 28
Peter Boswell
Bricad Associates, Switzerland
Dublin, 9 May 2019
survey.peterboswell.net
Bricad Associates
Europe 28 demand
Total demand
From National Accounts
- Demand: percent of
investment requiring services
benchmark against
- Use from Eurostat Supply-
Use Tables
Advantages
- forecast use to 2019
- not business accounts
- construction + industrial
activities
- EU28 - Croatia + Norway
= 94% GDP of Europe 44
- Russia
300
bEUR
35
15
M
AR
KE
T
N
ON
-MA
RK
ET
PUBLIC PRIVATE
Bricad Associates
EU28 context
Underlying investment
Investment (GFCF)
- fell rapidly during financial crisis
- recovered in 2010 & 2013
Investment ratio (GFCF/GDP)
- fell rapidly during the crisis
- has now maybe stabilised
Bricad Associates
Normalised investment ratio - Europe 28
Bricad Associates
Investment requiring services - Europe 28
Bricad Associates
Total demand - Europe 28
Forecast (not benchmarked) 2010-19: growth 3 p.a.
Bricad Associates
Demand - Europe 28
Forecast (not benchmarked)
Bricad Associates
Growth path 2010 – 2019 - Europe 28
Bricad Associates
Demand profile - Europe 28
Bricad Associates
Expectations - Europe 28
3% growth in demand in 2019.
Demand decrease in 2019 for
only one country.
Optimistic official investment
expectations driven by above
average investment growth (4%)
in 2017-18 compared with 3%
for 2010-18.
Bricad Associates
Demand: Market - Non-market / Public - Private
Non-market – Market demand (in progress)
2010-19 demand growth driven by market or
public investment?
Public – Private demand (in progress)
Opacity remains.
Public corporations entering
the market when public
demand reaches a
5% threshold
is a key issue.
Threshold?
Bricad Associates
Demand changes
Demand changes
The survey model’s required reconciliation of:
- use
- demand
reveals changes in use & demand.
An advantage of the survey’s benchmarking approach.
Bricad Associates
Use of consulting engineering (CE) services
Direct use (CE services consumed directly by activities)
USE TABLE
Activity Exports Total
Product
M71 N81
M71 52 364 34
N81 12 153 7
Output
Bricad Associates
Use of consulting engineering (CE) services
Direct use (CE services consumed directly by activities)
Product
CPA
Activity
NACE Rev. 2
Use of CE services
Factor % Product
M71.12 Architecture &
engineering
M71 Architecture &
engineering, testing
Engineering: 100% of M71.12 share
of M71 turnover.
72
M72.19 R&D M72 R&D R&D:100% of business share of total
R&D expenditure in relevant sectors
times M72.19 share of M72 turnover.
5.4
B09.90 Test drilling B Mining Test drilling: 20% of share of B09.90
test drilling turnover.
1.4
M74.10
+
M74.9
Specialised
design +
Professional
activities
M74 -
M75
Other professional Design & Consulting: 4% and 8% of
share of M74.10 + M74.90 in
M74+M75 turnover.
4.5
N81.30 Landscape
services
N80 -
M82
Security, service,
landscape
Landscaping: 4% of M81.3 share of
M80-82 turnover.
0.3
Turnover from Eurostat SBS database.
Bricad Associates
Use of consulting engineering (CE) services
Direct use (CE services consumed directly by activities)
M74-75 Design
& Consulting
Bricad Associates
Market change - M74.10 - impact of new/digital design
European Design Report 2.0 (2018)
Two groups
M74.10 Specialised
Design reclassification
- will some M74.10
services move to
M71.12 (engineering)?
Bricad Associates
Market change - M74.90 - impact of consulting services
SYNTEC-Ingénierie, France, 2014 survey
M74.90 Consulting Services
- France, % turnover: 7% total
- Survey, % demand: France: 1% total
Europe 28: 2% total
New CE demand
- Reclassify some M74.90 as M71.12 (engineering)
- 74.90.13: Environmental consulting
- 74.90.19: Services provided by consultants other than
quantity surveyors, etc (“excludes 71.12 –
engineering”).
- Reconcile use & demand
- increase survey’s use factor (currently 8%);
- identify the investment generating the M74.90 demand.
Bricad Associates
Demand generated by indirect investment
Indirect investment
Embodied (“indirect”) investment revealed through use tables.
Identified in 2018 by the Banque de France & OECD;
ICT products (for several categories)
- investment in computer hardware underestimated by 35%!
- reconciliation - survey model: GFCF requiring CE services
increased by 6%.
CE services (for M71.12, the main CE demand)
- reconciliation - survey model: GFCF requiring CE services
increased by 0.5%.
Threshold
Bricad Associates
Demand generated by direct investment
Direct investment
Survey Model using national accounts
- Investment - adjust GFCF classes for assets not included in
national accounts:
- indirect investment
- own-account design
- renovation and maintenance
- Requirement - estimate percentage of each GFCF requiring
CE services.
- Fees - assume that the industrial required investment (Plant
+ IPP) generates 20% more demand for CE services than
the construction asset required investment (Construction +
Indirect). i.e., CE fees are 20% higher for industrial work.
Threshold
Bricad Associates
Reconciliations
Demand adjustments
New:
- 74.10 (digital design) services generated by construction
investment (Construction GFCF)
- 74.90 (new consulting) services generated by industrial
investment (Plant & IPP GFCF)
Currently, probably relatively small changes in demand on
adjusting the survey model (confirmation pending).
But changes maybe much more significant in the future.
Threshold
Bricad Associates
Investment generated demand - Survey Model
Threshold
Bricad Associates
Summary
Summary
Solid core market demand
Driven by construction investment:
- stable engineering services demand.
But change underway
Driven by industrial investment in design & consulting
- effect of full-service providers & digitalisation:
- business impact being felt;
- national accounts & other sectors reacting.
- EFCA:
- push for an engineering perspective and
classification;
- or risk uberisation.