FIELD OPS AND GOTV: Where Elections Are Won And Lost

Justin SnyderJustinSnyderFL@Gmail.com

@JustinSnyderFL

EVERY VOTE COUNTS

25,000 Ballots Cast17 Vote Win Margin

.00068 %

WHAT IS A FIELD PLAN

• Blueprint to Victory• Contains your campaign’s Goals, Strategies,

Tactics, Timelines, and Benchmarks to achieve them.

• Person to Person Contact – Delivering message to targeted voters – Tactics: Calls, Canvassing, Lit drops, Mail

BUILD YOUR GRASSROOTS ARMY!!

Win Number and Vote GoalSTEP 1: Project Turnout

% Turnout in Last Election(s) X # of Reg Voters

STEP 2: Setting GoalsWin #: (Proj. Turnout / 2) + 1Vote Goal: Proj Turnout x.52

STEP 3: WRITE EVERYTHING DOWN.

Targeting Your Resources

Why?– Limited People, Money & Time– Getting right message to right voters

3 Ways To Target– Geographically – Voter History / ID – Constituencies

Calculating Goals • Break District Down geographically into regions• Find out each regions win number and vote goal.

Region #1Current Registration: 1624‘08 Turnout %: 31%‘12 Proj Turnout: 503Win Number: 253Vote Goal (52%): 262

Region #2Current Registration: 1603‘08 Turnout %: 55%‘12 Proj Turnout: 882Win Number: 442 Vote Goal (52%): 458

Region #3Current Registration: 1897‘08 Turnout %: 52%‘12 Proj Turnout: 966Win Number: 494Vote Goal (52%): 513

District Totals:Current Registration: 5124 ‘08 Turnout %: 46.3%‘12 Proj Turnout: 2371Win Number: 1187Vote Goal (52%): 1233

Party Performance Index

Percentage of vote our party can expect in typical election. (Based On History Not Reg)

How To Calculate PPI: Performance #1Performance#2 3 = PPI Performnce #3

Where Are Our People?

District Totals:‘12 Projected Turnout: 2371Party Performance Index: 46.1Proj Party Turnout: 1094Vote Goal (52%): 1233Voter Difference: -139

Region #3‘12 Projected Turnout: 966Party Performance Index: 48%Proj Party Turnout: 473Vote Goal (52%): 513Voter Difference: -39

Region #2‘12 Projected Turnout: 882Party Performance Index: 31%Proj Party Turnout: 273Vote Goal (52%): 458Voter Difference: -185

Region #1‘12 Projected Turnout: 503Party Performance Index: 69%Proj Party Turnout: 347 Vote Goal (52%): 262Voter Difference: 85

FIND PERSUADABLE VOTERSMethod 2: Compare campaigns w/ same constituents

Candidate % of Vote In districtDem Gov 57%Dem State Sen 46%

57%-46% = 11% Persuadable

Method 1:Look for blowouts to determine base vote

100%-Dem Base %-- GOP Base %____________Persuasion Index

CAN WE WIN? Region #1’12 Proj. Turnout: 503Persuasion Index: 18%Proj. Persuadable Voters: 91Persuasion Share: 23.6%

Region #2’12 Proj. Turnout: 882Persuasion Index: 12%Proj. Persuadable Voters: 106Persuasion Share: 27.6%

Region #3’12 Proj. Turnout: 966Persuasion Index: 19%Proj. Persuadable Voters: 187Persuasion Share: 48.8%

District Total: ’12 Proj. Turnout: 2371Persuasion Index: 16.2%Proj. Persuadable Voters: 384Persuasion Share: 100%

Formulas:Proj Persuadable Voter: Turnout Proj X Persuasion %

Persuasion Share: Regional Per. Voters/ Total

TARGETING STRATEGIES

Dem Base Precincts-PPI = >65%-ID, Voter Reg, Vol Recruitment GOTV

GOP Base Precincts-PPI=> less than 35% -Lowest priority

Swing Precincts-PPI> 65%-ID, Persuasion & GOTV

Targeting With Voter HistoryStrong Supporter (1)

Undecided (2,3,4)

Strong Opponent (5)

Always Vote (4x4) D A F

Sometimes Vote (2x4) (0x0)

B C F

Never Vote(0X4)

E E F

Voter Contact Priorities A- Undcideds likely to vote (ID, Persuasion)B. Supporters Less Likely To Vote (ID, GOTV)C. Undecideds less likely to vote (ID, Persuasion, GOTV)D. Supporters Likely to vote (Base Building)

Targeting Via Constituencies

• Look at Candidate and Message• Identify Supporters in Community• Listen!• Build Bases of Supports.

WHAT IS GOTV

• GETTING OUT THE VOTE• CULMINATION OF CAMPAIGNS CONVOS• TARGETED- ONLY GETTING OUT SUPPORTERS• NOT A LAST MINUTE DEAL– STARTS 2 WEEKS OUT– START PLANNING 4-5 WEEKS OUT

VOTER CONTACT METHODS

• DOORS• PHONES• LIT DROP• DIRECT MAIL

YOUR GOTV UNIVERSETARGETED UNIVERSE

SUPPORTER1s

OPPOSES 5s

GOTV UNIVERSE

PERSUASION

UNDECIDEDS2s 3s 4s

Calculating Volunteer ShiftsVote Goal: 11,496Early Vote: 2875 Remaining Voters: 8622

Capacity:25 GOTV phone contacts/hr8 GOTV door contacts/ hr3 hours per shift

We Need:345 vol phone hours (115 vol. shifts) OR 1078 vol door hours ( 360( vol. shifts) or 90 Phone Shifts (6750 voters) + 78 Canvass Shifts (1872)

E-Day

• Phones• Doors• Rides To The Polls• Poll Watching

Advice• It’s a marathon. Not a sprint. • Keep Calm and Under React. • Don’t break the law (Seems simple right?)• Don’t be afraid to change your plan• WRITE EVERYTHING DOWN.

“Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing

that ever has.”-Margaret Mead